金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
廖欣宇

瑞银证券

研究方向: 家电行业

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工作经历: 证书编号:S1460512120001,曾任职中信证券研究部家电行业分析师。 复旦大学经济学硕士。2007年进入东方证券研究所从事行业研究工作;2009年加入中信证券研究部;2012年加入瑞银证券研究所。...>>

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苏泊尔 家用电器行业 2016-12-29 34.22 32.73 -- 35.94 5.03%
41.05 19.96%
详细
Co.'s domestic sales to grow slower than we expected on softer GDP growth UBS economists see China's GDP growth falling to 6.4% in 2017, while growth inconsumption may slow to 7.2% (2016E: 8.0%). Additionally, Supor's number of brickand-mortar lifestyle stores now stands at 1,000+, lower than we expected. On balance,we think Supor's domestic sales will slightly undershoot our previous estimate. Exports to benefit from recovering SEB sales in N. America + RMB depreciation Supor's export revenue declined in H116 because sales of SEB declined in NorthAmerica. However, SEB's Q3 sales data point to a recovery in the North Americanmarket, with sales up 1.4% on a like-for-like basis, and we expect things to keepimproving next year. Meanwhile, RMB depreciation has continued during the past twomonths, which we think is having a positive impact on the company's export growth.Finally, our previous forecasts did not consider potential export growth driven by SEB'sacquisitions of WMF and EMSA this year. Given these factors, we are lifting ourforecast for Supor's export growth in 2017 to 8.2% from 4.8%. Limited gross margin impact from higher raw material and transport costs Raw material prices and transport costs have risen substantially YTD, and this trend maycontinue into next year. We expect most of these production cost increases to bepassed on to its customers, given Supor's strong pricing power as a leading player insmall appliances and cookware. Even so, we are slightly lowering our overall grossmargin assumptions to reflect lower domestic sales growth and higher export growthestimates, as exports have a lower gross margin. Valuation: Lowering EPS forecasts and PT; maintain Buy rating We are trimming our 2017/18E EPS to Rmb2.02/2.36 from Rmb2.08/2.49, while ourDCF-based PT falls to Rmb45.05 from Rmb49.33 on a higher WACC (to 7.7% from7.3%). We remain confident that Supor will continue posting rapid growth in the nextseveral years; in addition, current valuation appears undemanding. Therefore, wemaintain our Buy rating.
美的集团 电力设备行业 2016-12-19 27.90 33.35 -- 29.98 7.46%
34.79 24.70%
详细
Conference call with Midea: next year's revenue growth target is 10%As part of a series of efforts to highlight UBS-S top picks for the Shenzhen-HK StockConnect, we hosted a conference call with Mr. Jiang Peng, Midea's board secretary,and Ms. Su Fan, Midea's investor relations manager. At the conference, we learnedMidea aims for 10% YoY revenue growth and stable profitability next year. Midea targets double-digit growth rates; confident in keeping stable NPMMidea said while property control measures have a lagging effect, there is not a strongcorrelation between property and home appliance sales because a lot of properties arefor investment purposes and replacement demand accounts for a bigger share of totaldemand. Air conditioners (A/C) have the highest correlation with property sales, with~20% of domestic sales linked to property sales. For 2017, Midea targets 10% overallrevenue growth. By category, its revenue growth targets are 15-20% for refrigeratorsand washing machines, and above 10% for small appliances. For A/C, revenue growthis likely to reach 20% in H117 due to H116's low comparison base, and the company'sfull-year target is 10%. The company said rising raw material and transportation costswill not have a big impact on product gross margins due to its product pricing power asa leader in home appliances. The consolidated Toshiba Home Appliance (THA) will alsonot have a big impact on the company's gross margin. Midea is confident it canmaintain a stable net margin. Overseas operations to continue improving; THA to turn profitable next yearMidea said RMB depreciation will have a positive effect on next year's grossmargin/revenue, as overseas operations contribute ~50% of total revenue. It said it willnot change its overall operational strategy, ie, increasing the weighting of its ownbrands in developing countries and shifting from OEM to ODM in mature markets. Itwill step up market development in India, where A/C revenue is ~Rmb2bn and hasbeen growing more than 30% pa in recent years. The washing machine factory willcome on-stream and likely begin contributing revenue next year. Midea expects THA toincur a small loss in 2016 but is confident it will turn profitable next year throughmeasures including: 1) reducing costs by using Midea's production facilities; 2) applyingMidea's extensive product line to the Toshiba brand; and 3) integrating sales channels. Valuation: Maintain EPS estimates, Buy rating, PT of Rmb36.04We keep our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb2.37/2.79/3.17 unchanged. Our DCF-based pricetarget is Rmb36.04 (7.0% WACC). We maintain our Buy rating.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2016-11-18 22.00 29.29 -- 31.32 42.36%
31.32 42.36%
详细
Gree ended Yinlong acquisition, as Yinlong's shareholders rejected revised plan. Gree announced on 16 Nov that it terminated its plan to issue shares to acquireYinlong New Energy. Earlier, at Gree's first extraordinary general meeting of 2016,shareholders voted to reject the financing plan to be implemented after the Yinlongacquisition. Yinlong's general meeting for shareholders also rejected the revisedacquisition plan, as the revised additional placement's offer price was apparently notacceptable. Therefore, Gree decided to terminate the acquisition and will resumetrading on 17 Nov. Diversification to stop in short term due to failure to enter NEV field. Based on the previous plan, Gree would have acquired 100% of the equity in Yinlong(valued at Rmb13bn) through issuing shares and raised Rmb9.7bn in financing, whichwould have diluted Gree's EPS by 24%. With the termination of the acquisition plan,the EPS will not be diluted, which we believe is a short-term positive for Gree's existingshareholders. At the company level, we believe Gree's short- to medium-termdiversification risks have softened: 1) if the company had successfully entered the fieldof new energy vehicles (NEV), it would have been exposed to the risks of reduction inNEV subsidies and Yinlong's failure in battery technology R&D; and 2) if the acquisitionhad been successful, there would be a risk that Gree's other businesses would havebeen negatively affected due to uncertainty over the results of Gree's integration ofYinlong. Given the slowing growth of white goods and steady stream of acquisitionsmade by rivals, we believe the company will continue to diversify in the future. A/C business will not be affected; Gree likely to maintain high dividend ratio. We expect Gree's A/C business to resume rapid revenue growth, as de-stocking in theA/C industry has basically completed. Although Gree's management may now bedisappointed because the employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) has failed tomaterialise due to termination of the acquisition plan, we believe the company's A/Cbusiness will not be affected in the near term since it is well entrenched in the A/Cmarket. The A/C business still has great growth potential in the medium to long term,in our view. Moreover, Gree had a large amount (about Rmb97bn) of cash and cashequivalents on its books at end-Q3. We believe the company will maintain a highdividend ratio to meet demand from majority shareholder Zhuhai SASAC and othershareholders. Valuation: Rmb32 PT; maintain Buy. We maintain our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb2.45/2.75/3.00. Our DCF-based PT is Rmb32(7.0% WACC). We maintain our Buy rating.
海信电器 家用电器行业 2016-10-31 17.06 22.22 78.04% 18.52 8.56%
18.85 10.49%
详细
Net profit up 23% YoY, higher than expected Hisense recorded revenue of Rmb22.1bn (-0.2% YoY) and net profit attributable toshareholders of Rmb1.14bn (+22.8% YoY, +27% YoY excluding one-offs) in 9M16,with basic EPS of Rmb0.87, slightly higher than consensus and our expectation, mainlybecause its net margin has risen rapidly. Net operating cash flow came to Rmb3.9bn in9M16, up 500% YoY. Q316 revenue back to positive growth driven by exports Hisense recorded revenue of Rmb8.79bn in Q316 (+8.1% YoY) after declines in H116,mainly driven by the sharp rise of exports (up 30%+ YoY based on our estimation;Hisense's export volume increased 38% YoY in July – August according tochinaiol.com), while the magnitude of domestic sales declines narrowed benefitingfrom strong domestic property sales in H116. Looking into Q416 and 2017, we believeexports will continue to increase rapidly: 1) LCD panel capacity is moving into China,providing a favorable TV supply chain; 2) Euro Cup sponsorship significantly improvedHisense's reputation in overseas market. We believe domestic sales growth maycontinue to recover over the next three quarters driven by property sales, but could benegatively affected in H217 by the property purchase restrictions. Better-than-expected net margin improvement on good selling expense control Hisense's gross margin was 16.3% in Q316, 0.7ppts lower than Q315, mainly becauselow-margin export business accounted for a much higher share (30% vs. 25% in Q315)in total revenue. Selling expense ratio declined 1.6ppts YoY in Q316 since sellingexpenses are relatively low for export segment, resulting in a higher net margin of4.55% (+0.9ppts YoY). We believe with one of the best operations in the domestic TVindustry, Hisense should be able to absorb the recent panel price rise. In addition,higher exports should increase forex gains given continual CNY depreciation. Thecompany's activated smart TV users are now close to 20m. We estimate smart TVoperation will contribute Rmb150m revenue in 2016, not particularly high but stillmeaningful given the profit contribution. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating and PT of Rmb23.5 We maintain our EPS forecasts and DCF-based PT of Rmb23.5 (WACC=8.4%). We alsomaintain our Buy rating.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2016-09-08 22.90 29.29 -- 23.06 0.70%
31.32 36.77%
详细
A/C destocking largely over; growth set to resume in H2. We estimate that Gree's A/C channel destocking is largely over, paving the way forrenewed YoY top-line growth in H2. Our view is mainly based on the following: 1) Greesharply cut shipments to distributors starting in Q215; 2) we expect domestic demandto grow by at least double-digits this year, given hot summer temperatures; and 3) briskproperty sales are likely to drive demand in H2. We estimate the amount of inventoryheld in industry distribution channels has now dropped to a healthy level of ~25munits. Meanwhile, revenue is likely to resume growth this year on a low base, followinga sharp 40% YoY decline in H215. We expect GM to rise as expense provisions bolster profitability. Gross margin (GM) improved dramatically in H116, rising 7.9ppt to 35.69%, higherthan our estimate, on product mix upgrades and ex-factory price hikes. We expect GMto keep improving as competition eases. In addition, considering Gree's generousprovisioning for dealer rebates in recent years, we expect its selling expense ratio to fallin future periods. The central A/C market is growing briskly and Gree's market share inthis segment is likely to increase. We expect central A/Cs to grow as a percentage ofoverall revenue and boost overall profitability, given their high GM of 45%. Entering NEV buses via planned Yinlong acquisition; diversification accelerating. The company plans to acquire 100% of the equity in Zhuhai Yinlong Energy (valued atRmb13bn) through issuing shares. Concurrently, it will also raise Rmb9.7bn infinancing. Yinlong's core business is lithium-titanate based electric vehicles and it has afirm grasp of lithium-titanate battery technology. The original shareholders havepledged 2016/17/18 net profit of Rmb720/1,000/1,400m. The deal price implies 18x/13x/9x 2016/17/18E PE, comparable to Zhongtong Bus but lower than BYD. Ifcompleted, the acquisition would expand Gree's business scope but the level of synergythat could emerge remains to be seen. If completed, the private placement wouldexpand share capital 24% and dilute EPS but the employee stock ownership planwould likely be positive for employee motivation. Valuation: Slightly lifting PT to Rmb32, maintain Buy. We are slightly revising our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb2.45/2.75/3.00 from Rmb2.53/2.69/2.96. Our new price target of Rmb32 (from Rmb30) is based on DCF and assumes a7.0% WACC (from 7.7%). Noting its solid competitiveness in the A/C segment andhigh expected dividend yield, we maintain our Buy rating on Gree.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2016-09-05 10.46 12.08 -- 10.88 4.02%
11.30 8.03%
详细
H116 earnings slightly beat expectations, cash flow increased substantiallyHaier's H116 revenue was Rmb48.8bn (+3.11% YoY), net profit attributable toshareholders was Rmb3.3bn (+21.21% YoY), net profit excluding one-offs wasRmb2.8bn (+10.19% YoY), and EPS was Rmb0.54, slightly beating UBS-S and marketexpectations. Net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly by 170%YoY, mainly due to the company's tighter control on payment collection. Revenue excl. GEA improved; product mix improvement helped expand shareGEA (GE Appliances), fully consolidated into Haier's financial statements in June,contributed revenue of Rmb3.5bn and net profit of Rmb100m. Excluding GEA'scontribution, Haier's revenue was flattish YoY in Q216, a significant improvement overthe 8% YoY decline in Q116. The significant improvement was driven by the recoveryof the home appliances industry, management integration of the company's saleschannels, and market share improvements (especially high-end products' rapid marketshare expansion). Kitchen appliances/washing machines saw faster revenue growth(9%/2.4%), while refrigerators/air conditioners saw 7.5%/4.8% YoY revenue declines. In H216, we expect the demand for home appliances to pick up due to the hot summerand earlier strong property sales; with Haier's competitiveness remaining strong, itsmid-range to high-end product positioning will benefit from demand driven byconsumption upgrades; and its air-conditioner segment will recover ahead of peers dueto its lower channel inventory. Gross margin to keep expanding; GEA's contributions likely to increase in H216Haier's gross margin rose 1.74ppt YoY to 28.92% in H116, mainly driven by productmix improvement and modular production. High-end products (multi-door refrigeratorsand drum-based washing machines) posted double-digit+ YoY revenue growth. Weexpect the company's gross margin to keep expanding in the coming years as itimproves the image of its mid-range to high-end products with its smart appliances,connected factory and product customisation strategies. Excluding interest on USDdenominatedloans, GEA's net margin was basically in line with expectations. GEA'scontributions to Haier's revenue and net profit are likely to increase, even if theintermediary costs of Rmb300m-400m payable in H216 are taken into account. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating and PT of Rmb12.80Our 2016-18E EPS remain unchanged at Rmb0.79/0.86/0.97, and our DCF-based PT isRmb12.80 (WACC=6.4%). Maintain Buy.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2016-08-30 4.66 5.54 -- 4.74 1.72%
4.85 4.08%
详细
Revenue and earnings growth beat UBS-S and market expectations. H1 revenue was Rmb24.5bn, up 17.68% YoY, and net profit attributable toshareholders of the listed company was Rmb670m, up 27.19% YoY. Pre-exceptionals,net profit came to Rmb660m, up 40% YoY. Basic EPS was Rmb0.08, beating UBS-Sand market expectations. H1 operating cash flow was Rmb1.25bn, nearly 2x net profit. H2 could see faster store openings and significant uptick in same-store growth. Yonghui opened 24 new stores in H1, in line with its plan from the beginning of 2016,bringing its nationwide store count to 425. Considering its plans to open 26 BRAVOstores in H2, we estimate full-year store openings could exceed the 60-store target laidout in the plan from early this year. In H1, same-store sales grew 3%, a notableimprovement from H215. In particular, BRAVO stores saw revenue rise 12.4% YoY,giving the company impetus to open more BRAVO locations. Elsewhere, Yonghui'sshare placement to JD.com has been completed. The Yonghui-JD partnership is mainlylimited to JD Daojia, an online delivery platform, at present. Apart from Beijing,Yonghui's stores in Shanghai and Fujian province have also joined the JD Daojiaplatform, driving their H1 same-store sales to rise 1% YoY. Expansion accelerated, increase in new stores likely to boost earnings. Gross margin rose 0.34ppt YoY to 20.2% in H1, with an especially large increase forfresh produce gross margin (+0.44ppt YoY), in line with what we expected. In the pastfew years, Yonghui has continued to strengthen its fresh produce supply chainadvantages while raising its proportion of semi-finished products and proprietarybrands; as a result, we expect its fresh produce gross margin to keep improving. Also,the company is exploring new management models for its stores, aiming to boostmotivation via equity participation by store-level management. Sales per square metergrew and the selling expense ratio dropped 0.26ppt YoY; we foresee further declines inthe selling expense ratio as more stores implement equity partnership systems. Valuation: Upgrading earnings forecasts and price target, maintain Buy. Though the share placement to JD.com will be EPS-dilutive, H1 earnings beatexpectations and financial income is likely to rise after the share placement. Therefore,we are raising our 2016/17/18E EPS to Rmb0.13/0.16/0.18 from Rmb0.13/0.15/0.17. Inaddition, we are raising our mid-term growth assumption given our positive view onYonghui's growth following the JD.com investment. We are lifting our DCF-based PT toRmb5.80 from Rmb5.30 (WACC 7.7%). We maintain our Buy rating.
阳光照明 电子元器件行业 2016-08-24 7.72 9.02 105.00% 8.50 10.10%
8.50 10.10%
详细
Earnings continued rapid growth, basically in line with our estimate Yankon's H116revenue was Rmb2.13bn (+12% YoY), net profit (NP) attributable toshareholders was Rmb220m (+22% YoY) and EPS were Rmb0.15, the latter basically inline with our estimate but overshooting consensus. Because the company made asubstantial provision for impairment losses in H215and most of the impairment wasprovided for, we expect NP growth to pick up in H216. Therefore, NP is still likely tomeet our full-year forecast of Rmb490m in 2016. H116net operating cash flow surged121% YoY to Rmb520m, as the company kept a tighter rein on accounts receivableand inventory. LED ASP in line with estimate; energy-efficient lamp revenue had big decline Yankon's H116LED lighting revenue was Rmb1.74bn (up 40% YoY) and energyefficientlamp revenue was Rmb360m (down 43% YoY). The slower LED revenuegrowth and larger decline in energy-efficient lamp revenue caused the company'srevenue growth to undershoot our forecast. In H116, LED lighting average selling price(ASP) dropped c15%, consistent with our expectation of a smaller ASP drop this yearthan in 2015(30%). LED sales volume jumped c60% YoY, slightly below our forecast,mainly due to slower growth in the existing customer base resulting from a largercomparison base. Despite a larger revenue decline, we expect energy-efficient lamps tohave a lesser impact on the company, as their share of total revenue decreased to 17%. Gross margin up 2.4ppts YoY to overshoot expectations Yankon's H116gross margin (GM) rose 2.4ppts YoY to 26.3%, overshooting our andconsensus estimates. We believe it was mainly driven by: 1) LED lighting's increase inthe share of total revenue due to new LED product launches; and 2) energy-efficientlamps' GM improvement due to the company being selective when accepting ordersand from rivals exiting the market. As the company grows in scale, we expect its GM tocontinue improving. Its H116selling and administrative expense ratios were mostlystable, while net margin rose 1ppt to 10.6%. Helped by RMB depreciation, thecompany posted an FX gain of Rmb27.54m. Because exports contribute a big share(83% in H116) of its total revenue, the company's FX gain could increase if the RMBcontinues to depreciate in H216. Valuation: Maintain EPS estimates, PT and Buy rating Our 2016-18E EPS remain Rmb0.34/0.44/0.52. We maintain our DCF-based price targetof Rmb10.00(7.0% WACC) and Buy rating.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2016-08-23 38.84 35.52 8.23% 39.20 0.93%
41.60 7.11%
详细
Hoods/stoves further increased market share; built-in products grew rapidly. Robam's H116 revenue was Rmb2.5bn (up 23.68% YoY). Sales of main productcategories range hoods and gas stoves grew a respective 25.46%/18% (faster thanindustry growth of 10%/4%), continuing to improve market share. Built-in ovens/steam ovens/microwave ovens posted rapid sales growth rates of 78%/65%/71%,respectively, in H116. We expect the company's range hoods and gas stoves tocontinue increasing market share in the next three years. Meanwhile, we expect newproducts to expand their share of the company's revenue to above 10% as it rolls outnew built-in dish washers and water purifiers. Tier 1/2 city specialty store upgrade; new companies set up in tier 3/4 cities. Robam is upgrading its Chu Yuan stores in tier 1/2 cities at a quicker pace to step upservice and experiential marketing. Continuing its efforts to extend channels to lowertiercities, the company opened 150 new specialty stores in H116 and is likely to open400 new stores this year. The company has replaced its old model of splitting up itsagents with a new model in which agents will have a majority stake in the company intheir respective cities. We believe the new model can better safeguard the interests ofagents. The company expects its e-commerce channel to maintain 50% revenuegrowth, while we believe the channel's penetration rate is likely to continue rising. Weare lowering our forecasts for the company's revenue in the next three years on: 1) alower-than-expected number of specialty stores being opened in tier 3/4 cities in H116;and 2) the property market's limited boost in tier 3/4 cities. Raising gross margin estimates on shift towards high-end market. Robam's gross margin improved steadily in H116, with core business gross marginrising 1.81ppts YoY to 58.94%. The gross margins of range hoods/gas stoves rose2.0/2.65ppts YoY to 62.52%/60.42%, respectively. Gas stove ASPs across the industryhave risen, with sustained consumption upgrades this year, and have overshotconsensus estimates. We are raising our forecasts for the company's gross margin inthe next three years on: 1) higher unit prices and gross margins of main products rangehoods and gas stoves; and 2) a bigger share of the high-margin e-commerce channel. Valuation: Raising EPS estimates; maintain Buy rating. We are raising our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb1.58/2.01/2.50 from Rmb1.50/1.92/2.40. OurDCF-based price target goes to Rmb49 (from Rmb45, with WACC lowered from 6.5%to 6.2%). We maintain our Buy rating.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2016-07-29 38.97 32.62 -- 41.49 6.47%
41.60 6.75%
详细
Revenue/profit maintained rapid growth Robam's H116 revenue was Rmb2.525bn (up 23.68% YoY) and Q216 revenue rose2.1ppts from Q116, mainly driven by the company's improved market share and highermarket demand resulting from strong property sales in tier 1 and 2 markets YTD. Salesof main product categories such as range hoods, gas stoves and disinfector cabinetsgrew 9.84%/4.31%/3.3%. We expect these categories to maintain growth in Q3-Q416. Net profit attributable to the parent was Rmb423m, up 37.92% YoY, and netprofit excluding one-offs was Rmb410m, up 36.16% YoY. Gross margin improved more than we expected In H116, core business gross margin rose 1.81ppts YoY, beating our estimate, mainlybecause: 1) the high-gross-profit e-commerce channel contributed a bigger share andposted high growth of 50%; 2) the unit price of main products range hoods and gasstoves went up; 3) raw material costs increased slower than revenue growth; and 4)new high-gross-profit products contributed a bigger share: the gross margins of rangehoods/gas stoves rose 2/2.65ppts YoY to 62.52%/60.42%. Selling and administrativeexpenses increased at the same pace as revenue in H116. Quicker launch of new built-in home appliances; stronger channel development In H116, while maintaining the leading market shares of its core products range hoodsand gas stoves, Robam quickened its pace to launch new built-in products, which willbe a major development focus. By retail volume/value, range hoods improved marketshare to 17.57%/25.03% and gas stoves improved market share to 15.54%/22.67%. Built-in microwave ovens/ovens/steam ovens posted rapid growth rates of 71.25%/78.45%/65.30% in terms of retail value. Meanwhile, with the company launching itsdrawer dishwasher W720 and water purifiers soon, we believe it is likely to benefitfrom rapid demand growth in the industry. The company also continued to reformoffline channels, innovate incentive-sharing models for partners and tier 3/4 markets,and quicken the extension of channels to tier 3/4 markets, while ramping up severalonline channels, with its online business posting rapid 50% growth. Valuation: PT of Rmb45; maintain Buy Our 2016-18E EPS are unchanged at Rmb1.50/1.92/2.40. We maintain our Rmb45price target (DCF, WACC 6.5%) and Buy rating.
豫园商城 批发和零售贸易 2016-07-25 12.57 14.54 91.57% 12.55 -0.16%
12.55 -0.16%
详细
We expect gradual improvement in gold jewellery business In the two past years, sluggish gold prices caused the company's gold jewellerybusiness to decline. However, year to date, gold prices have risen sharply. The negativegrowth trend of combined gold sales at China's top 100 large retailers is graduallyimproving. By June, growth turned positive. The company's gold-related businesses(including investment gains from its stake in Zhaojin Mining) contribute c50% of itsearnings. In our view, while a gold-buying spree is unlikely to be repeated, a gold pricerebound will have a positive impact on the company's sales because its product pricingis based on spot gold prices. Therefore, we expect gold jewellery sales to pick upgradually. Opening of Shanghai Disneyland likely to boost visitor traffic to Yuyuan We believe the opening of Shanghai Disneyland will not give as strong a boost to thecompany's earnings as the World Expo did, but it will last longer, mainly manifesting ashigher visitor numbers to Shanghai boost the company's catering, food anddepartment store businesses (mostly in the Yuyuan Garden shopping district).Currently, Shanghai Disneyland is driving accelerated YoY growth in visitor traffic to theYuyuan Garden shopping district. For 2017, assuming visitor numbers to ShanghaiDisneyland total 20m, we estimate they would add cRmb130m to the company'srevenue and cRmb80m to its gross profit, or up c3%. Core profitability to recover but investment gains may weigh on 2016 earnings Year to date, individual visitors have driven a strong growth in outbound travel toJapan. Resort Tomamu in Hokkaido, acquired by the company last year, posted c19%/20%/57% YoY growth in average daily rate (ADR), sales and EBITDA from December2015 to May 2016. We believe the consolidation of the high-margin hotel business inHokkaido and an increase in the contribution of directly-operated stores to gold saleswill lead core business EBIT margin (excluding investment gains and changes in fairvalue) to trend up in 2016/17. However, an overly-rapid increase in gold prices fromtheir low in late 2015 may lead to related hedging products incurring substantialinvestment losses. We expect the company's profit margin to decline YoY in 2016 but itcould rebound in 2017 as gold price growth slows down. Valuation: PT of Rmb15.40; Buy rating Our DCF-based PT of Rmb15.40 assumes 7.1% WACC. We have a Buy rating.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2016-07-12 9.35 11.84 -- 11.33 21.18%
11.33 21.18%
详细
Rich product line with the highest market share in multiple products Qingdao Haier is mainly engaged in R&D, production and sales of white goods, with aproduct line covering refrigerators/freezers, washing machines, A/C, water heaters andkitchen appliances. According to Euromonitor's 2015 data, Haier's branded largeappliances accounted for 9.8% of global retail sales in 2015, the highest share for the7th consecutive year. Its refrigerator, washing machine, wine cooler and freezer salescontinued to lead globally. Evolving from standalone smart products to smart home platform Haier is a leader in smart appliances both in China and internationally, being the first tolaunch standalone smart products (refrigerators, washing machines) and creating theU+ Smart Appliance Platform. It is exploring the evolution from pure hardware sales toa "connected appliance + interaction + service + platform" model and one-stop smarthome solutions. Our Evidence Lab survey results suggest nearly half (47%) ofconsumers are highly interested in smart appliances. In the refrigerator market, smartstorage has become a very important feature for consumers. We believe Haier's marketshare will rise further with an enhanced consumer experience due to smart appliancetechnology upgrades. In addition, our Evidence Lab survey shows consumers are willingto pay premiums for smart products (Rmb1,651/1,505/1,685 for refrigerator/washingmachine/A/C, respectively). We believe Haier's ASP and gross margin will both improvewith higher smart appliance penetration. To benefit from consumption upgrades; GE acquisition to expand product line UBS Evidence Lab survey results show that home appliance replacement by consumersis accelerating (shortened to c5 years from the previous 7-10 years for large appliances)and consumers tend to buy more home appliances (increasing from the current 16units per household to 25 units). We believe Haier will benefit from appliancereplacement and upgrade with its high-end positioning and industry leadership. It willhave a wider product line after the GE Appliances acquisition and may benefit from theincreasing number of product categories that consumer will purchase, in our view. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating and PT of Rmb12.8 Our 2016-18E EPS are Rmb0.79/0.86/0.97 and our DCF-based PT is Rmb12.8(WACC=6.4%). As the smart appliance leader in China, we believe it will benefit fromreplacement, product upgrade and the "smart" trend of home appliances. MaintainBuy.
美的集团 电力设备行业 2016-07-12 24.35 27.76 -- 29.57 21.44%
29.57 21.44%
详细
One of China's largest appliances conglomerates. As one of China's largest appliances conglomerates, Midea has complete airconditioner, refrigerator, and washing machine industrial chains and a small applianceindustrial cluster. It ranks among the top in terms of major/small appliance capacity,production and sales domestically and abroad. It has 26%/12%/25% shares of the airconditioner/refrigerator/washing machine markets based on sales, all ranking No. 2 inChina. It ranks No. 1 in the industry in terms of small appliance sales. It has stepped upits overseas expansion in recent years, including the acquisition of the home appliancearm of Japan's Toshiba and a stake in Italy's Clivet and the ongoing tender offer forshares in Germany's Kuka. If the tender offer succeeds, it will accelerate productionautomation and create a new growth driver, in our view. Continued leadership in small appliance field. Midea has a diverse range of small appliances. According to Euromonitor, it postedsmall appliance sales of Rmb35.4bn in 2015, representing 26% of its overall sales. Ithas a No. 1 market share in five small appliance categories – induction cookers, electricpressure cookers, electric cookers, electric kettles and water equipment – based onsales domestically. It has maintained its leadership in the induction cooker, microwaveoven, electric pressure cooker and electric cooker markets for years with 40%+ shares. Our UBS Evidence Lab survey finds China still lags behind developed countries in smallappliance ownership, and Midea stands to benefit from the clear consumption upgradetrend and faster replacement. Continued promotion of smart home + smart manufacturing strategy. Midea has continued to promote its strategy of smart home + smart manufacturing. Onthe smart home front, it is actively promoting M-SMART and building smart homescenarios and demand designs under the "internet+" model. On the smartmanufacturing side, it established a robotics JV with Japan's Yaskawa, bought a 17.8%stake in Anhui Efort Intelligent Equipment and is increasing its holdings in Kuka. It hasput nearly 1,000 robots into use since 2012, with an estimated Rmb5bn investment inautomation-oriented transformation, leading to a sharply higher automation rate. Valuation: Maintain earnings estimates, PT and Buy rating. We maintain our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb2.30/2.70/3.17 and DCF-based price target ofRmb30 (WACC 7.1%). We also leave our Buy rating unchanged.
美的集团 电力设备行业 2016-07-12 24.35 27.76 -- 29.57 21.44%
29.57 21.44%
详细
Tender offer for Kuka exceeded minimum acceptance rate According to Midea's latest announcement on the progress of its tender offer toacquire Germany's Kuka, it had received agreement from the latter's shareholders tosell a combined 43.74% stake as of 6 July (local time in Frankfurt, Germany). Combined with its existing holding of 13.51% in Kuka, Midea will hold 57.25%, abovethe offer's minimum acceptance rate of 30%. Last week, Midea signed a strategicinvestment agreement with Kuka's management in which it pledged to maintain theindependence of Kuka's board, preserve its existing factories and jobs, and respect itscore technology and knowledge patents. Subsequently, the offer's progress acceleratedsignificantly, giving Midea sufficient shares this week and demonstrating the company'sstrong execution ability. Acquisition still needs to pass antitrust scrutiny in various countries The 43.74% stake to be acquired through the offer includes the 25.1% stake held bymajor shareholder Voith. If successful, the acquisition would make Midea the largestshareholder of Kuka, which it can consolidate into its financial statements. After theoffer meets the requirement for number of shares, it still needs to pass antitrustscrutiny in Germany and the US before the shares can be transferred to Midea. Webelieve the acquisition may only be fully completed by early 2017. Robotics business to become new growth driver and help improve valuation We believe the acquisition of Kuka has significance to Midea in the following areas:1) it more quickly advances Midea's "smart manufacturing + smart home" strategy toimprove productivity; 2) takes advantage of Midea's familiarity with China's market todevelop Kuka's robotics business into a new growth driver for the company; 3) astechnology advances, there may be large demand for service robots in the future, andthe acquisition of Kuka gives Midea an early presence in this business. With thegovernment driving upgrades in the manufacturing sector, Midea's acquisition of Kukacould also help improve its valuation. Valuation: Maintain EPS estimates, PT and Buy rating We maintain our 2016/17/18E EPS of Rmb2.30/2.70/3.17 and DCF-based price targetof Rmb30 (WACC 7.1%). We also leave our Buy rating unchanged.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2016-07-12 38.00 32.62 -- 41.98 10.47%
41.98 10.47%
详细
Leader in large kitchen appliances, with annually rising market share Robam is engaged in the R&D, manufacture and sale of kitchen appliances such asrange hoods, gas stoves, disinfector cabinets, ovens, steam ovens, microwaves,dishwashers and water purifiers. It has achieved the No. 1 market share for several coreproducts, including range hoods (2015: 16.78%/24.84%, based on units sold/salesvalue); gas stoves (2015: 14.64%/21.61%, based on units sold/sales value); anddisinfectors (2015: 19.41%, based on sales value), and these figures are continuing toincrease. Launching more new built-in appliances; product line expansion has begun We believe the company's share in range hoods, gas stoves and disinfectors is highlylikely to keep increasing. Apart from this, Robam has also ramped up efforts to enterthe built-in home appliances market. In 2015, the company recorded Rmb137m inrevenue from built-in electric ovens/steam ovens/microwaves, up 56.36%/66.81%/129% YoY. Our UBS Evidence Lab survey suggests that the company is well-positionedto benefit as spending on appliances rises alongside consumer incomes. In addition, theresults show consumers are likely to buy a larger number of home appliance productsin the future, driving rapid growth for built-in appliances with all manner of functions. Therefore, we estimate that over the longer term (5+ years), electric ovens, steamovens, and washing machines could grow to over 10% of overall revenue. Water purifiers could become next big growth driver The company released a water purifier product in June to tap this fast-growing market. Our UBS Evidence Lab results show that water purifiers are one of several appliancesconsumers don't own yet but intend to buy. Considering the increasing focus ondrinking water safety among consumers, we expect water purifiers to become Robam'snext growth driver. Meanwhile, the company is also making headway in smartappliances, having already released a bundled set of smart appliances. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating, Rmb45 price target Our 2016-18E EPS are unchanged at Rmb1.50/1.92/2.40. We maintain our Rmb45price target (DCF, WACC 6.5%) and Buy rating.
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