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长江电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2018-01-11 16.14 14.69 -- 16.46 1.98%
17.09 5.89%
详细
Yangtze Power attended our AccessChina 2018conference and we lay out thekey takeaways below: Power output: The water inflow improved much in 2H17and the totalgeneration in 2017was up by 2.4% yoy (vs. 4% decrease in 1H17). ThreeGorges/Gezhouba recorded 4.4%/4.1% generation growth while Xiluodu’s outputremained flattish and Xiangjiaba’s output decreased slightly by 1.2%. Accordingto the management, there are 6bn kwh power curtailment in 2017(vs. 210.8bnkwh total power output) mainly in Xiluodu/Xiangjiaba and management expects itto decrease going forward. The synchronized dispatching among Yangtze’s fourhydro plants has contributed 9.6bn kwh additional power output in 2017andmanagement believes there is still further room to improve. Tariff updates: Yangtze Power just announced the tariff hike for its Xiluodu/Xiangjiaba (effective on Jul 2017) due to the mid-year tariff hike for thermal power.Tariff was raised by Rmb1.9/mwh to Rmb326.3/mwh for Xiluodu (Right) and wasraised by Rmb4.6/mwh to Rmb300.6/mwh for Xiluodu (Left) and Xiangjiaba. Outof the total 210.8bn kwh power output in 2017, around 12bn kwh is market-basedvolume with a price discount of c.Rmb20/mwh. Capital deployment: Yangtze has budgeted Rmb12bn/year for externalinvestments for next 2-3year. They will mainly focus on hydro/power retail sectorin domestic market and are also interested in overseas opportunities in hydro/power retail/gas power sector. Other key takeaways: The company is aware of the draft version notice by NDRCto reduce the VAT for hydro power, but they are still waiting for further officialupdates on this. Mgmt expects the financial cost to drop yoy in 2017and remainflattish in 2018with some reduction in total debt offset by higher effective interestrate. Yangtze will stick to its dividend policy of no less than Rmb0.65/sh for2017-20.
长江电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-11-02 15.98 14.69 -- 17.27 8.07%
17.27 8.07%
详细
Yangtze Power reported robust 3Q17results with net profit up by 11% toRmb9.7bn. As a result, 9M17net profit increased by 9% yoy to Rmb17.8bn,accounting for 90% of our previous full-year forecast (historically 79-83%). The3Q earnings growth are primarily driven by a 4% yoy increase in power output,a 87% yoy increase in investment income and a 11%/19% yoy drop in financial/operational cost. Consequently, we lift FY17/18earnings by 10/9% on the backof strong 3Q results. With 15% upside to our new target price of Rmb18.3, wereiterate Buy on Yangtze Power given 1) a high-quality hydro power assets withstable earnings, 2) an absolute DPS commitment at Rmb0.65/sh until 2020(4.0%yield) and >75% payout post 2020, 3) potential earnings upside if the favorableVAT rebate policy gets extended. Management will host a call at 9:00am on 1Nov (dial in: China: 95040123456; overseas: +865722760523). 3Q17results boosted by higher output, investment income and cost savings In 3Q17, net profit was up by 11% yoy to Rmb9.7bn driven by 4% yoy increase innet output, a 87% yoy increase in investment income and a 11%/19% yoy drop infinancial/operational cost. Power generation growth recovered from a 4% declinein the first half to 4% yoy in 3Q17thanks to improving water flows in Three Gorges(output +6% yoy) and Gezhouba (output +11% yoy). While Chuanyun (Xiluoduand Xiangjiaba)’s power output growth remains stable with 1% improvement in3Q17. As a result, 9M17net profit was up 9% yoy to Rmb17.8bn. The 1% yoy decreasein net power output was well offset by 12%/24% yoy decrease in financial/operational cost and doubled investment income. 9M17results accounts for 90%of our previous full year estimates, ahead of the historical range of 79-83%. Further room for financial cost savings In 9M17, Yangtze's financial cost was lowered by 12% yoy to Rmb4.4bn withstable net gearing at 110%. Effective interest rate was lowered by 0.3ppt to 4.4%per our calculation. During the 1H17results conference call held in September,mgmt expects the debt to asset ratio to decrease gradually from 59% to 30%, afterwhich Yangtze may consider M&A and raise the debt to asset ratio again. We seefurther room for financial cost savings going forward as a result of deleveraging. Hydro VAT rebate could be extended, positive to Yangtze According to Energy News on 8Sep, the NDRC is soliciting feedbacks for thenotice of Reduce the Tax for Enterprises in Renewables Energy Sector. In thenotice, the NDRC proposes to reduce the VAT for hydro power units (with capacityabove 50MW) from 17% to 13% and to extend the VAT rebate period to 2020for those with capacity above 1GW. If passed, Yangtze Power would be the keybeneficiary and we estimate the extended VAT rebate would bring 9.6%/9.4%2018/19E earnings upside. See report Hydro VAT rebate could be extended,positive to Yangtze Power and SDIC, 8th Sep 2017for more details.
国投电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-09-05 7.38 7.36 5.19% 7.75 5.01%
7.96 7.86%
详细
Better earnings stability than a thermal peer, more upside than hydro peers Positive tariff outlook, better capex discipline, improving free cash flow SDIC enjoys higher earnings visibility, as well as stability, than thermal power peers, due to its 57% capacity exposure to hydropower. Over 2016-1H17, almost all the earnings came from the hydro segments. Meanwhile, SDIC’s thermal business can also benefit from accelerating supply-side reform and year-end tariff hikes. We expect SDIC to turn FCF positive starting in 2018, thanks to earnings recovery and better capex discipline, indicating potential upside to our assumed 35% payout ratio and dividend yield of 3%. Relative to Yangtze Power, SDIC is an overlooked A-share hydro name, with an attractive valuation and similarly strong hydro capacity pipeline. Reiterating Buy. Positive tariff outlook, better capex discipline, improving free cash flow SDIC’s 1H17 results were slightly below expectation, with a 13/37% yoy decline in reported/recurring net profit, but still much better than thermal peers, which are near breakeven. Thermal tariff recovered by 7.5% yoy, due to a lower DPS discount. Hydro tariff dropped 6% yoy in 1H17 but the declining trend slowed in the second quarter. Management expects the discount to narrow going forward, with less competition from peers. Furthermore, its inter-provincial hydro power sales tariff should benefit from the thermal tariff hike in July and potentially another round at year-end. In response to supply-side reform, SDIC is delaying three coal-fired generation units (total 3GW) and plans no other thermal capacity additions over 2017-19E. We expect its free cash flow to reach c.Rmb8.0bn in 2018/19E, supporting a stable dividend outlook. Earnings revisions We revise down our 2017/18/19E net profit forecasts by 14%/4%/1% to reflect higher fuel cost, delay in thermal projects, higher thermal tariff due to a lower DPS discount and July tariff hike, and lower hydro tariff due to higher discount. Valuation and risks Our TP is based on DCF with WACC of 7.0% and zero TGR. SDIC is trading at 12x 2018E P/E and 1.5x P/B, well below Yangtze’s 17x P/E and 2.3x P/B. Risks: lower-than-expected thermal tariff hike, weaker water flow, higher coal prices.
长江电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-09-04 14.97 14.05 -- 16.64 11.16%
17.27 15.36%
详细
Yangtze reported in-line 1H17 results with net profit up 7% yoy. Yangtze will enjoya higher tariff for its inter-provincial power sales in 2H17 thanks to a thermal tariffhike in July. Furthermore, it may also benefit from another round of thermal tariffhikes at year end. The company also has further room for financial cost savingsas the mgmt aim to lower their debt/asset ratio to 30%. We maintain Buy onYangtze due to its unique dividend commitment supported by highly predictablecash flows which generate a an attractive 4.3% 2017E yield. 1H17 results in line. Yangtze's net profit was up 7% yoy to Rmb8.1bn in 1H17, in line with our forecast. The growth is mainly driven by cost savings (SG&A -18% yoy; financial cost -13%yoy) and investment gains (+82% yoy), partially offset by weaker net output (-4%yoy). Generation declined in Three gorges (-11%) and Gezhouba (-4%) due to weakwater flows and slightly increased in Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba (+4%). Free cashflow reached Rmb10bn in 1H17. Key takeaways from conference call. Tariff: Mgmt expect a higher tariff in second half for their inter-provincial powersold by Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba to Shanghai and Guangdong thanks to the thermaltariff hike on 1 July. There is further room for tariff hikes if the fuel cost passthroughfor thermal plants is executed at year end. Power output: Mgmt expect full-year output to reach 191-200 bn kwh. Thegeneration was impacted by a typhoon in July-Aug but has started to recover inSept. Market-based volume is expected to rise over the next few years. Capital structure and financial cost: Mgmt plan to use cash flow for debtrepayment as they do not have major M&A plans currently. Mgmt expect thedebt to asset ratio to decrease from the current 59% to 30%, after which Yangtzemay consider M&A and raise the debt to asset ratio to 60% again. Mgmt arecomfortable with a debt ratio of 42-55% . In 1H17, the average interest rate was4.2% and mgmt expect it to increase mildly to 4.35% in 2H17. Capex: Yangtze does not have a major M&A target for now but expects to acquiresome hydro/power retail assets related to its core business. Mgmt are also lookingfor potential targets overseas and the company has gained experience via a 288MW wind power acquisition in Germany. Over 2018-19, the company hasbudgeted for Rmb10bn capex each year. Other key takeaways: Yangtze will continue to use investment income to smooththe earnings volatility driven by water flows fluctuations.
国电南瑞 电力设备行业 2017-08-03 17.25 10.59 -- 17.76 2.96%
21.87 26.78%
详细
1H results beat; reiterating Buy as sector top pick NARI Tech reported stronger-than-expected 1H profit growth (+25%) andshowed encouraging order momentum. As we discussed in A value-accretiveasset injection plan; looking forward to a stronger NARI (19May), we expect itsoverall competitiveness to be greatly enhanced upon parentco asset injection(subject to approvals). NARI is our sector top pick, as we believe its favorableproduct exposure, diversification efforts and competitive R&D capability willlead to a quality earnings growth profile (16% CAGR in 17-19E) with betterdefensiveness and sustainability than peers. On the earnings forecast lift andconsolidation of target asset, we raise TP to Rmb20.2and reiterate Buy. Grid automation drives 1H results; strong group-level order momentum 1H NP was +25% yoy to Rmb350m, primarily driven by strong gross profitgrowth in the power grid automation segment, despite some weakness inothers. Meanwhile, 1H order intake at the group level rose 18% yoy, anencouraging momentum level seen broadly across segments. This could pointto a strong full-year performance for NARI (post-consolidation of target assets). Why do we like NARI the best? NARI Tech is our favorite sector pick, because 1) it has multiple growth drivers,especially rising secondary grid automation equipment and HVDC-Flexibletransmission investment; 2) its diversification in both products and marketsshould help defend a stable earnings outlook; 3) its unparalleled R&D capabilityshould keep driving new product initiatives, supporting sustainable long-termgrowth; 4) we see upside from post-merger synergies in terms of cost saving,efficiency/R&D enhancement and potential share incentive scheme. Lifting TP to Rmb20.2(previously Rmb18.5); key risks We raise FY17-19EPS 28-41% on 1H results beat and consolidation of targetassets with share issuance. Our TP is therefore lifted to HKD20.2(HKD18.5),with target P/E lowered to 20x FY18E as the valuation premium from the assetinjection should be removed. Risks: failure/poor execution of asset injection,lower grid investment, and market share/margin volatility on competition.
国电南瑞 电力设备行业 2017-05-22 17.19 9.53 -- 18.66 6.63%
18.46 7.39%
详细
Parentco asset injection to enhance overall competitivenessNARI Tech’s preliminary plan for a parentco asset injection via share issuanceentails an above-expectation scope, attractive valuation and decent EPSaccretion. The injection (mainly NR Electric), subject to approvals, would helpenhance its overall competitiveness by cementing its grid automation/protection leadership, adding UHV/HVDC flexible transmission and exportcapability. The stock remains suspended pending further announcements. Maintaining Buy and Target price of CNY18.50. Details of asset injection proposalThe total deal consideration of Rmb26.5bn mainly comprises 1) Rmb21.6bn foran 87% stake in NR Electric (relay protection, UHV/HVDC flexibletransmission), 2) Rmb1.8bn for Puri Engineering (UHV/HVDC flexibletransmission) and 3) the rest for export, etc. The plan is to fund this via: 1)1,721m of shares issuance (71% of existing share capital) to NARI Group andother counterparties at a price of Rmb13.93/shr (a 16% discount to the lastclosing price); and 2) Rmb2,499m in cash. It also proposes to fund a Rmb6bnproject investment via a private placement (<=486mn shares). Attractive deal valuation with decent EPS accretion expectedThe deal pricing represents 2.57x FY16 P/B and 14x FY16 PE, vs. 4.6x P/B and28x P/E for the listco. Valuation appears attractive, given higher ROE (19%) oftarget assets vs. listco (16%). In FY16, the target assets generated Rmb1.9bnof net profit (>80% from NR Electric), 130% of that of the listco. Conservativelyassuming 5% growth in target assets (the profit guarantee details are yet to befinalized), FY17/18 EPS would be enhanced 14%/10% post the share issuance. DCF-based target price of Rmb18.5; risksWe maintain our DCF-based target price of Rmb18.5, comprising Rmb15.4/shrfor existing assets and Rmb3.1/shr for an asset injection premium. Our TPimpliedFY17/18E PE of 22x/19x (if factoring the asset injection plan andassuming 15% EPS growth in target assets) is largely in line with its historicalaverage and grid automation peers. Key risks: deal failure, significant variance tothe final plan, grid investment, market share/margin volatility with competition.
长江电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-05-05 13.35 13.39 -- 15.15 8.21%
15.33 14.83%
详细
Results in line; a rare FCF+ power play . 2016 results in lineYangtze reported in-line 2016 results, with net profit up 14% yoy, to Rmb20.8bn. 1Q17 results were also robust, thanks to a rise in investment income. Over 2017-19, we expect stable profit and free cash flow (Rmb25- 30bn pa) to support its dividend commitment (Rmb15bn), while potential strategic/financial investments or faster debt repayment could offer some earnings upside. We reiterate our Buy rating on Yangtze Power ? a blue-chip A share with a unique dividend policy, thanks to highly predictable cash flows, at an attractive 4.6% 2017E yield. 2016 results in line; 1Q17 earnings boosted by investment income . Yangtze Power reported in-line 2016 results, with net profit of Rmb20.8bn, up 14% yoy, boosted primarily by a 9% increase in net generation and a 24% yoy decrease in financial costs, partially offset by a 5% lower blended tariff and a 40% drop in investment income. 1Q17 net profit improved by 23% yoy, thanks to the Rmb835m contribution from investment income (vs. Rmb199m in 1Q16) and an 11% yoy decrease in financial costs. Stable 2017-19E core business outlook . We expect blended utilisation to drop by 3% in 2017 and remain flattish over 2018-19, owing to the high base in 2016. Although the 2017 debt repayment plan does not seem as significant as we had expected, management’s Rmb10bn investment plan could bring some earnings upside, if executed prudently. Nevertheless, we expect faster debt repayment (c.Rmb15bn pa) in 2018-19, and hence lowered financial costs, to mitigate the impact from the absence of a VAT rebate (starting in 2018). Moreover, Yangtze could use the potential disposal gains of some available-for-sale financial assets to smooth out profit volatility, which would also help stabilise earnings. Maintaining Buy, with target price (TP) of Rmb17.5 (from Rmb17.4); risks . We fine-tune 2017-18E earnings and introduce 2019 forecasts. Our Rmb17.5 TP is DCF-derived (7.3% WACC, 0% TGR). Downside risks: lower-than-expected utilisation hours; volatility in associates’ earnings/investment income.
国投电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-04-20 7.33 7.00 0.13% 7.77 6.00%
8.19 11.73%
详细
SDIC’s FY16 reported net profit down 28% yoy to Rmb3.9bn and recurring profit dropped 23% yoy to Rmb4.3bn, in line with DBe. DPS was Rmb0.2/sh, implying a 35% payout and a 3% yield. We believe SDIC is better positioned than thermal power peers due to its 60% capacity exposure to hydropower (95% profit contribution in FY16). As such, we view SDIC as a largely hydro play trading at undemanding 12.5x 2017 P/E, maintain Buy with TP of Rmb8.3. 2016 results in line; 95% of recurring profit from hydro business. SDIC's recurring net profit was down 23% to Rmb4.3bn (after adding back one-off items mainly Rmb516mn provision on guaranteed loan of Qujing company). Net output rose by 6% yoy (thermal: +1%, hydro: +8%) with utilization dropped by 2% yoy to 4,308 (thermal: -10% to 3,701; hydro: +5% to 4,822), but was offset by a 11% yoy drop in avg. tariff (thermal: -13%; hydro: -10%). Unit fuel cost for thermal was largely flat yoy but the cost in Dec was about 30% higher than FY16 average. More than 95% of the recurring earnings came from hydro business. For thermal plants, profits from plants in Tianjin, Anhui, Fujian were largely offset by losses in Gansu, Xinjiang and Yunnan. Focus more on non-thermal business. As of end-2016, SDIC has 8.8GW under construction, of which 4.5GW is hydro, 4GW is thermal and 0.3GW is wind. Mgmt expects 2x1GW Tianjin Beijiang project and 2x1GW Fujian Meizhouwan project to be operational in 3Q17 (some delay vs. plan). Beyond 2017, mgmt expects no more thermal projects to be added before 2020 while planning 1GW wind and solar capacity additions in Yalongjiang area by 2020. In addition, its 42% owned thermal project in Indonesia was just into operation with better-than-expected returns. Mgmt expects offshore wind projects in UK to commence operation in 2019. Higher market-based volume with less DPS discount for both thermal & hydro. In 2016, market-based volume accounted for 13% of total power outputs with discounts of Rmb3-5cents/kWh for most projects. In 2017, mgmt expects a gradual increase of the market-based volume mix (20% in 1Q17), but the discount should be less as a result of higher coal prices. In 1Q17, Ertan and Tongzilin hydro projects increased the portion of the market-based volume (sold to Sichuan and Chongqing) whose settlement tariff is only Rmb0.25/kWh. Lower 2017/18E earnings by 6/1% with TP unchanged (Rmb8.3), Maintain Buy. We tweaked our 2017/18E net profit by -6/-1% to reflect project delays and lower tariff for its hydro units due to higher market-based volume, but partly offset by lower depreciation/ financial cost. Our DCF-based TP of Rmb8.3 (WACC 7%, TGR 0%) is unchanged as profit beyond FY18 is slightly raised due to lower hydro DPS tariff discount after an expected thermal tariff hike at end-FY17.
许继电气 电力设备行业 2017-03-31 18.05 21.39 67.76% 19.69 9.09%
19.69 9.09%
详细
XJ Electric reported in-line FY16results over the weekend and hosted aconference call this afternoon, which reaffirms positive growth outlook thatmay mitigate margin pressure. Stock valuation looks compelling at 14x FY17PE, against a forecasted earnings growth of 33% in 2016-18. Meanwhile, wesee several catalysts incl. 1) strong quarterly results announcement; 2) ordersfrom UHV DC approvals and 3) progress on the pilot incremental distributiongrid projects. Reiterate Buy as our preferred pick in A-share power T&D sector. FY16core profit +20% yoy, forecasting a stronger FY17(+55%) In FY16, it delivered 20% yoy higher net profit, in line with our forecast. Astrong 30% top line recovery offsets the weakness in GPM (-4.7ppt), of whichthe market appears well-aware. As a result, we see growth recorded in allsegments at gross profit level, except for smart mid-voltage products whoseGPM dropped to a thin 10% that looks unsustainable. Order intake remainedhealthy in the period, +13% to Rmb13.2bn. For 2017, we are forecasting arobust 55% profit growth, with high visibility on UHV order delivery. Conference call reaffirms growth trend intact on multiple drivers Order target: the company’s parentco XJ Group sets an order target this yearat Rmb24.5bn (+13% yoy), which could be viewed as a cross-reading tocompany’s target. In 2016, XJ Electric contributed 61% of total orders and80% of total revenue of XJ Group. Potential UHV DC orders this year may come from projects (either domestic orcross-border), incl 1) Shaanxi-Wuhan ( ± 800kV), 2) Xinjiang-Pakistan ( ±800kV), 3) Wudongde- Guangxi/Guangdong (±800kV),4) Zhangbei Flexible DC.Smart T&D automation: While mgmt didn’t provide specific guidance onsegment growth, they remain confident in mid-long term outlook, driven by 1)rising urban distribution investment with growing renewable energyconnection, 2) more projects with provincial gridcos under financial-leasingmodels (targeting Rmb1-1.5bn p.a.), 2) upside from incremental distributionprojects which State Grid is now actively involved with. New energy vehicle charging equipment growth momentum should remainstrong into FY17, after a 63% growth in FY16. This is driven by a planneddoubled investment by State Grid as well as further penetration into the risingnon-grid demand. Now non-Grid customer orders contribute around half. Smart meters: Although overall industry demand is expected to drop 30% yoythis year, mgmt targets to maintain a flat sales level this year, via furthermarket share gain and more export. Export sales are expected to rise along with XJ Group’s growing orders -targeting Rmb2.5bn, following a breakthrough (Rmb2bn from Laos) last year.Margin pressure remains but manageable: Although tender prices fordistribution products remain weak on fierce competition, after a pickup in2H16, they are managing to sustain margins by optimizing orders.
长江电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-01-12 12.73 13.09 -- 13.18 3.53%
13.65 7.23%
详细
Yangtze Power attended our dbAccess China Conference 2017. We share thekey takeaways. Stable hydro operations with dividend commitment. Management expects its stable hydro operations as well as low borrowingrate, supported by high credit ratings, to guarantee the DPS payment ofRmb0.65/share for 2016-2020 and dividend payout of 70% in 2021-2025. Yangtze plans to continue replacing the old debt with medium-term notes andshort-term debentures to lower its gearing ratio and borrowing cost. In thelong run, Yangtze may acquire two hydro power plants (Wudongde andBaihetan, with total capacity of more than 20GW) from the parentco after theyare put into operations in 2020-21. Hydro tariff adjustment finalized. Due to a thermal tariff cut at end-2015, Xiangjiaba and Xiluodu are required tolower their tariff as per the tariff policy applied to inter-provinces’ large hydroprojects. On 1 September, 13 September and 30 December 2016, Yangtzeannounced the settlement tariff for Xiluodu (Right Bank), Xiangjiaba, andXiluodu (Left Bank), which were lowered by 1.77 cents/kwh, 2.58 cents/kwh,and 2.58 cents/kwh respectively. This is lower than the 3 cent average thermaltariff cut, in line with our expectation. Preparing to enter power retail market. Other than the hydro exposure, Yangtze plans to enter China’s retail powermarket. So far, Yangtze has done some preparation work, mainly in Hubei andChongqing. The company is in discussion with local enterprises to cooperate inthe retail business for incremental power demand. It would like to wait formore clarity in government policy and reform progress before making a realinvestment. Also considering overseas M&As. Yangtze made its first overseas investment in Germany’s wind farms in 2016and expects an IRR of 7%. After the acquisition, the management team for thetarget company remained stable and consolidation is well on track. Apart fromsome hydro assets in Europe, Yangtze may also consider to cooperate withEDP Energias, in which Three Gorges Corporation (parentco of Yangtze Power)owns a 20% stake, to seek opportunities in South America, especially theBrazil power market. EDP Energias is the largest power company in Portugaland has a lot of investment experience and local connections in SouthAmerica. According to management, Yangtze prefers big, stable companies ina more market-based economy when seeking potential M&A targets.
许继电气 电力设备行业 2016-10-31 16.35 19.85 55.67% 18.27 11.74%
19.78 20.98%
详细
XJ Electric delivered in-line 3Q16 results, with net profit up 51% yoy toRmb135m. While 9M16 net profit growth (+48% yoy to Rmb245m) does notlook exciting considering a low-based last year weighed by lower margin, weanticipate sequential margin improvement ahead and a faster UHV orderdelivery schedule should underpin a robust performance in 2017. In addition, itis a potential beneficiary of opening up additional distribution grid access. Further detailed regulation announcements and successful cases could serveas share price catalysts. Buy. 3Q sees sequential GPM repair3Q trend is broadly in line with 1H. Revenue increased by 53% yoy, driven byUHV recognition as well as recovery in smart substation & distributionsegment. GPM remains under pressure at 19% compared to over 25% last year,as the company is still digesting low-margin order intake in 1H. However, itsequentially restored by 5ppt qoq and is expected to further recover withmargin improvement in recent new orders. On operating cost cut efforts, netprofit went up by 51% yoy. Continued growth momentum in order intake: 9M16 +45% yoyXJ Electric’s 3Q order intake (+45%) extends strong momentum seen in 1H16,leading 9M16 order intake +45% yoy to c.Rmb8.4bn. 9M16 order growth wasrecorded across all segments, except for smart mid-voltage power equipment. DC transmission segment (mainly UHV DC) is the primary driver, increasing toRmb1.6bn (not include Rmb948m from Zhalute-Qingzhou yet) from Rmb200mlast year in the same period. For full-year 2016, the company expects to bookc.Rmb2.5bn (2015: Rmb2.2bn) based on the bidding result. The company issitting on c.Rmb4.7bn UHV DC order backlog, with c.Rmb2.5bn received thisyear. It is equivalent to 4-5x of its expected UHV revenue recognition this yearof c.Rmb1bn, and most of them are scheduled to be delivered in 2017. Smart substation & distribution segment increased steadily by 15% yoy toRmb2.4bn, thanks to new sales model development e.g. equipment leasingand station maintenance. Smart power meters segment increased by 44% toRmb1.3bn. Smart power supply segment (mainly EV charging equipment)increased by 150% yoy to Rmb760m amid sector boom. Smart mid-voltagepower supply segment slightly retreated by 2% yoy, with 3Q down 30% yoy. This reflects company’s strategy of optimizing orders amid competitive bidding. A likely beneficiary of opening up additional distribution grid access; BuyXJ Electric is also a likely beneficiary of country’s efforts in opening up accessof incremental distribution grid investment to private capital. On 11 Oct,NDRC/NEA announced the Method of Opening Up Distribution Grid Business,which defines incremental distribution grid, outlines the regulation and scopeof incremental distribution grid operation. This lays a regulatory foundation toliberalize distribution grid market and facilitate investment.
国电南瑞 电力设备行业 2016-10-31 16.50 9.22 -- 16.55 0.30%
17.15 3.94%
详细
NARI Tech reported better-than-expected 3Q16results, with NP up 81% yoy toRmb487m driven by order delivery catch-up. This marks it the best 3Q since2013. As a result, 9M16net profit comes at Rmb768m (+160%), tracking wellour full-year forecast of Rmb1.4bn. Adequate order backlog and continuedYTD order growth should drive steady profit growth ahead. Moreover, thepotential Parentco acquisition, due by 31Dec 2016, is the key event underwatch in 4Q. Should it go through, it would make NARI an unparalleled leaderin power automation industry and help enhance its UHV exposure. NARI Techremains our preferred name in China Power T&D sector. Buy. 3Q results show continued recovery; both sales and orders on the growth trackIn 3Q16, revenue recovered by 61% yoy and 20% qoq to Rmb2,860m, oncontinued order delivery catch-up since 1H. The company does not disclosesegment financials in 3Q, but we estimate the recovery trend across allsegments should be broadly in line with 1H. Gross profit was +58% yoy, at aGPM of 26% which is 2ppt yoy lower due to different product recognition mix.As a result, 3Q net profit grew 81% yoy, leading 9M16profit up 160% yoy toRmb768m. Thus 9M16profit accounts for 55% of our full year forecast, higherthan 23% in 2015as we expect 4Q net profit may fall yoy from a high-based4Q15based on the company’s order delivery schedule. Moreover, we seevisible sales growth ahead underpinned by a strong order backlog at end-15(Rmb12.7bn, 1.2x of FY16E revenue) and continued YTD order growth. Parentco (NARI Group) asset injection due 31Dec-16 The mega-size Parentco asset-injection commitment for three subsidiarycompanies of NARI Group into the listco is due by 31Dec 2016, three yearsfrom the completion date of last Parentco acquisition. The asset restructuringplan is currently still under review by the SASAC and the State Grid.NR Electric, the leader in relay protection/substation automation, contributesthe majority of the potential Parentco asset injection. If the asset injection cango through, we believe it would not only strengthen NARI Tech’s leadingposition in grid automation industry, but also helps enhance its UHV exposure.In addition to its UHV DC control & protection exposure, we also notice NRElectric’s success in being qualified as a UHV DC converter supplier this year.In particular, this is endorsed by being the sole provider of UHV DC converterand DC control & protection for Belo Monte ±800kV UHV project in Brazil, thefirst UHV export project procuring from domestic suppliers. Valuation and risks Our target price of Rmb17.9/shr includes Rmb15.0/shr for existing assets andRmb2.9/shr for value creation from potential Parentco asset acquisition. Keyrisks: failure or unfavorable terms of asset acquisition, lower-than-expectedgrid investment, order delivery delay, market share/margin contraction due tocompetition.
长江电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2016-09-05 13.68 13.01 -- 13.95 1.97%
13.95 1.97%
详细
Due to thermal tariff cut at end of 2015, Xiangjiaba and Xiluodu arerequired to lower their tariff as per the tariff policy applied to interprovinceslarge hydro projects. Despite a 3 cent average thermal tariff cut,Yangtze has concluded the negation of power grid with a lower magnitudecut of 1.77 cents. This is largely in line with our assumed 2 cents cut and isalso reflected in the 1H16 financial results. The company is seeking various methods to lower its financing costs,including refinancing with cheaper debts. Average interest rate in 1-7M16is 4.4%, vs. 5.3% in FY15. Management aimed to control total financingexpense in 2016 within Rmb7.3bn, and the implied higher financingexpense in 2H16 is mainly due to new loans associated with asset injectionthat were drawn in 2Q16. After the acquisition of wind power assets in Germany, Yangtze willcontinue to seek overseas expansion with a likely capex of Rmb10bnplanned per year. For developed countries such as Germany, the hurdleIRR is set at 5.5-6.5% while it is set much higher (>=10%) for emergingcountries such as Brazil. Currently, there is no plan to acquire overseasassets owned by the parenco while management does not fully excludesuch possibility in the long run. Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba’s 1H16 generation output amounted to 32.88bnKWh, up by 2bn KWh yoy. The planned output for these injected plants in2016 is c.88bn KWh. In 1H16, the two plants contributed Rmb1.9bn profit,with an expected full-year profit of c.Rmb6bn based on planned outputs. Others: 1) Hydro waterflow in July-August still shows moderate growthyoy although the waterflow seems to have trended down since late August,2) annual maintenance capex budgeted around Rmb1bn, 3) the disposal ofits several A share holdings will depend on waterflow and stock marketconditions. Given strong waterflow this year, and a lackluster A sharemarket, the company has no intention to dispose this year.
国电电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2016-09-01 3.03 3.06 85.00% 3.08 1.65%
3.52 16.17%
详细
GD Power reported 1H16 results with net profit of Rmb3.66bn (+7% yoy),mainly driven by higher power output (+11%) and reduced unit fuel cost (-16%), partially offset by lower on-grid tariff (-9%). Annualized ROE edged up by0.6ppt to 13.6%. Among listed IPPs, GD Power is one of the few that recordeda positive 1H earnings growth thanks to for two reasons: 1) high non-thermalexposure (32% hydro/wind), 2) high capacity exposure to eastern China (52%capacity in Jiangsu/Zhejiang/Anhui) where dark spread and plant utilization aremore favorable. The stock is trading at undemanding valuation of 9x 2016 P/E.Maintain Buy. 1H16 net profit up 7% yoy to Rmb3.66bn GD reported 1H16 results after market close on 29 Aug 2016 with reported netprofit up 7% to Rmb3,656mn, slightly better than our expectation andaccounts for 52% of our full year forecast. Earnings growth was primarilydriven by a 11% yoy increase in power generation (thermal +5%; hydro +47%)and a 16% drop in standard coal price, partially offset by 9% lower powertariff. By plant, its hydro unit – Daduhe contributed Rmb656mn profit (1H15:Rmb282mn) and its core thermal unit – Guodian Jiangsu contributedRmb849mn profit (1H15: Rmb705mn). Direct power supply In 1H16, 20% of power output was sold at market-based prices with anaverage discount of Rmb6.2cents/kwh according to the mgmt. Most DPScomes from thermal power plants and the rest is from hydro plants in Daduhe.By province, tariff discount are high in Yunnan, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia(6-10 cents) while being low in Jiangsu, Zhejiang (2-3 cents). Capacity expansion plan By end-1H16, GD Power’s total installed capacity reached 49GW of which33GW is thermal and 11GW is hydro. In 1H16, the company has disposedsome small and inefficient thermal units. Mgmt expects no new capacity to beadded in 2H16. However in 2017 there are 4.3GW (eight generation units)thermal power capacity scheduled to commence operation. GD Power plans toadd 900MW wind farm in 2016-17. During 13th FYP period (2016-2020), mgmtexpects wind capacity to expand by 800MW/year on average. Utilization hours; fuel cost In 1H16, Thermal utilization dropped 6% yoy to 2,117 hours and mgmt targetsan above 4,000 utilization hours in 2016 (4,499 in 2015). Hydro utilizationimproved by 9% to 1,383 hours and according to the mgmt, the robust hydrooutput growth continued in July and August. In 1H16, GD Power’s standardcoal cost was Rmb357/ton, down 16% yoy. The mgmt expects the coal pricemay increase by c.Rmb50/t hoh n 2H16.
国投电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2016-09-01 6.92 7.85 12.08% 6.94 0.29%
7.33 5.92%
详细
SDIC 1H16 results came in below expectation, with recurring earnings down16% to Rmb2.0bn, which is mainly dragged by deteriorating performance ofseveral thermal plants located in severely oversupply provinces. Nevertheless,SDIC has a balanced capacity portfolio with a 35%:65% capacity mix betweenthermal and hydro/others, and hydro business contributed 90% 1H recurringprofit. Annualized ROE was 15% in 1H16 (vs. 20% in 1H15). As a predominanthydro play, it is trading at undemanding valuation of 10x 16 P/E. Maintain Buy. 1H16 recurring net profit reached Rmb2.0bn, down 16% yoy SDIC announced 1H16 results after market close on 30 Aug. Reported netprofit dropped 39% yoy to Rmb1.5bn. After adding back one-off items (mainlyRmb535mn provision on guaranteed loan of Qujing company), recurring netprofit dropped 16% to Rmb2.0bn, below our expectations of Rmb2.2bn.Earnings from hydro (mainly through Yalongjiang Hydro, Dachaoshan andXiaosanxia) was largely flat yoy as stronger waterflow are offset by tariff cut.The profit decline was mainly due to thermal tariff cut and decline inutilizations, which cannot be offset by a 20% decrease in standard coal price.As per the disclosure, several of its thermal plants recorded loss in 1H16,including Jingyuan No.2 (Gansu), Yili (Xinjiang), Panjiang (Guizhou) whileQingzhou (Guangxi), Beibuwan/Huaxia/Taipingyang (Fujian) and Xuancheng(Anhui) recorded a sharp decline in profits. Thermal: power output decreased by 8% with utilization hours down 13% to1,914, but still 86 hours higher than national average. On-grid tariff dropped16% as a result of tariff cut in Apr 2015 and Jan 2016 and increasing directpower supply (DPS) mix. Hydro: power output recorded 8% output growth driven by better water flowsin Yalong River (Sichuan), partially offset by lower output in Yunnan andGansu. Utilization hours was up slightly by 1% to 1,995 hours. On-grid tariffdropped 6-7% for its hydro plants for Sichuan as a result of a Rmb2-3centstariff cut in Jan 2016. By region: In terms of revenue, Anhui recorded 24% yoy growth thanks to thecontribution of newly commenced generation units. Sichuan (+1% yoy) andYunnan (-3% yoy) remained stable due to higher exposure to hydro plants.While Fujian (-48% yoy), Guangxi (-38% yoy) and Guizhou (-32% yoy) sawlargest decline dragged by weaker power demand and fiercer competitionfrom hydro power. Major 2016 guidance SDIC plans to generate 120bn kwh power in 2016, implying a 5% yoy growth.At end 1H16, total installed capacity reached 27GW, of which 16.7GW is hydroand 9.8GW is thermal. In 2H16 the company plans to add a total of 4.2GWnew capacity, most of which is thermal (QinZhou Phase II 2GW, Beijiang PhaseII 1GW, Meizhouwan Phase II 1GW).
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