金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
陈欣

瑞银证券

研究方向: 航空机场行业

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工作经历: 证书编号:S1460511050002,硕士,2010年6月曾加盟光大证券研究所,现主要负责航空机场行业研究。曾就职于上海航空股份有限公司商务部、中信证券研究部和投资银行部。...>>

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锦江股份 社会服务业(旅游...) 2016-10-24 30.76 37.24 59.28% 32.35 5.17%
33.58 9.17%
详细
Budget hotels: 2017-18E RevPAR likely to rise YoY. Jinjiang's consolidation of Plateno in March further increased the concentration of thebudget hotel market, with the three largest companies combined accounting for c50%of the market and their bargaining power with online travel agencies (OTA)strengthening further. In addition, we expect the industry's profitability to improve onthe sustained and rapid growth of domestic tourism. The company has the largestshare of the domestic budget hotel market. For the Jinjiang line of hotels, we estimaterevenue per available room (RevPAR) will decline 1.9% YoY in 2016, significantlyslower than the 4.5% decline in 2015, but increase YoY in 2017-18. Hower, we thinkPlateno's high selling, administrative and financial expenses as a percentage ofoperating costs may weigh on profit margins. Mid-range hotels: Weaker Euro-tourism sentiment affects 2016E contribution. Demand for mid-range hotels is likely to keep growing, spurred by an expandingmiddle class, shrinking business travel budgets due to the economic slowdown, andcontrols on travel expenses for government officials. We forecast the demand for midrangehotels to rise more than 30% YoY in 2016-18. The consolidation of ViennaHotels in July gave Jinjiang the largest share of China's mid-range hotel market. Weexpect mid-range hotels to contribute >20% of the company's profits from 2017. Welower our 2016E net profit for mid-range hotels from Rmb255m to Rmb184m, giventhat Louvre Group's mid-range hotels are affected by weaker European tourismsentiment. We also lower our 2017-18E net profit for mid-range hotels fromRmb266/284m to Rmb202/211m. YoY profit growth likely to improve significantly in H2. We estimate the consolidation of Vienna Hotels in July will contribute cRmb80m toJinjiang's 2016 profit, or 11% of 2016 net profit. Approved by the CSRC in August, thecompany's additional placement is set to raise cRmb4.5bn, all of which will be used torepay the company's borrowings. In view of this, we estimate 2016 financial expenseswill decrease from Rmb570m to Rmb470m. We expect a significant improvement inYoY profit growth in H2 over H1. Valuation: Lowering EPS estimates, cutting PT to Rmb39.50; maintain Buy. We lower our 2016-18E EPS from Rmb1.08/1.32/1.69 to Rmb0.78/0.94/1.10 on lowerRevPAR, a smaller number of new hotels, and higher selling expense ratio. Our newDCF-based price target is Rmb39.50 (from Rmb58.80, 4.7% WACC). We maintain Buy.
深圳机场 公路港口航运行业 2016-10-24 8.73 10.65 0.38% 8.95 2.52%
9.20 5.38%
详细
Chairman under investigation for suspected serious discipline breaches On 14 Oct, Shenzhen Airport (SAG) announced that it was reported on the website ofShenzhen CPC's Commission for Discipline Inspection that Wang Yang, its chairman ofthe board, is being investigated for suspected serious discipline breaches. On 17 Oct,SAG stated that its board of directors had given authorisation for Chen Fanhua, thegeneral manager, to be acting chairman and nominated Luo Yude, chairman of theparent company, as a candidate to be a non-independent director on SAG's board ofdirectors. The motion has to be passed by a shareholders' general meeting. We willkeep a close watch on the appointment of the new chairman. Currently, we believe theinvestigation into Wang Yang's suspected discipline breaches will have a limited impacton the company's operations, although the effect on sentiment towards the stock isobviously a risk. September cargo/mail volume a bright spot with sustained >10% YoY growth The company announced its September operating data: aircraft movements/passengervolume rose 3.9%/7% YoY, with both growth rates higher than in August. Notably,the cargo and mail volume rose 13.5% YoY, with the growth rate in double-digitterritory for the fourth month in succession and a new monthly high since 2013. Increasing time slots are the key to SAG's future earnings growth We estimate that the company is currently operating at a capacity utilisation rate ofc75%; its terminals and runways still have ample capacity; and the peak-hourmovements amount to 48 (with an upper limit of 60). Basically, it is ready to add newtime slots. We expect the company to allocate any new slots mainly to internationalroutes, in which case international passenger volume could account for 10% of totalpassenger volume in 2020, up from 4.2% in 2015. The company has plans to startbuilding satellite halls in 2018 and expects capex to exceed Rmb3bn. In the next twoyears, with the company not having other major capex, we estimate its core business topost profit CAGR of above 10%, with ROE likely to improve from 4.6% in 2015 to6.2% in 2018. Valuation: Maintain Rmb11 PT and Buy rating We maintain our DCF-based price target of Rmb11 (WACC 7.3%) and Buy rating.
宋城演艺 传播与文化 2016-10-03 24.29 33.94 22.75% 25.77 6.09%
25.77 6.09%
详细
Trimming 2016-17 visitor growth assumptions. The domestic tourist count posted faster double-digit growth in H116 despite slowerGDP growth. We are positive on Songcheng's entry into famous tourist destinations,including Guilin and Zhangjiajie, to launch its performing arts projects targetingtourists, which are likely to start operation in 2018 and become new earnings drivers. Due to negative factors, including rainy weather, in East China since Q216 and touristtraffic diversion from Sanya to Southeast Asia, and with Jiuzhai visitor growth in H116quicker than we expected, we are cutting our visitor growth assumptions forHangzhou/Sanya but raising our estimate for Jiuzhai. Our new tourism performing artsrevenue growth estimates are 25%/25% in 2016/17E (from 39%/27%). Tourism performing arts: H216 results may improve HoH. We estimate the net profit growth of the company's Songcheng/Sanya projects slowedto c20%/single digits, respectively, in H116 due to rainy weather in East China sinceQ216 and tourist traffic diversion from Sanya to Southeast Asia – much slower than thec60%/20%+ growth in Q116, respectively. However, we think H216 results growth willlikely outpace that in H116, due to the peak season in summer and Q416 (Sanya) andindependent tourists with stronger spending power, despite disruptions fromunfavourable weather conditions and the G20 summit. 6.cn: To benefit from new policy; positive on online segment profit growth. 6.cn had a gross margin of 51.4% and net profit growth of c100% in H116. In Sept,the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television (SARFT)announced that live show platforms: 1) should obtain a Licence for Dissemination ofVideo-Audio Programs via the Internet; 2) should not name themselves "TV" or "TVstations"; and 3) should file relevant information with provincial or above SARFTdepartments prior to a show. We think regulatory tightening should benefitstandardised platforms such as 6.cn. As a segment with the strongest profitability, 6.cnhas accumulated rich operating experience and hosting resources since coming onlinein 2006. We estimate 6.cn should deliver 30%+ net profit growth in 2016-18. Valuation: Trimming earnings forecasts; cutting PT to Rmb34.5; Buy. We are trimming our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.60/0.74/0.92 from Rmb0.61/0.76/0.93and cutting our medium-term profit margin assumption for the Sanya project 2ppts. We are cutting our DCF-based PT to Rmb34.5 (WACC 7.3%) from Rmb38. Wemaintain our Buy rating.
中南传媒 传播与文化 2016-09-12 18.66 22.43 80.74% 18.55 -0.59%
18.85 1.02%
详细
H1 earnings slowdown due to financial services, Tianwen Digital Media At our China A-share conference in Shenzhen, the company said H116 revenue wasRmb4.74bn (+7.9%) and net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb840m(+6.6%), with the slow bottom-line growth mainly driven by: 1) a 3.7% YoY decline inrevenue and 11% decline in gross profit in financial services; and 2) a Rmb40m net lossat Tianwen Digital Media, deepening from Rmb30m in H115. Tianwen Digital Media: 2016 revenue could reach Rmb600m We expect the company to have signed contracts with 3,000-3,500 schools by end-2016, causing Tianwen Digital Media's revenue to reach Rmb600m, up 50% YoY, withnet profit of Rmb30m. In the initial phase, the company is signing contracts withschools under a B2B model whereby it sells equipment to schools. After revenuereaches Rmb1bn, it will shift to a B2C model, generating income through sellingcontent. We expect publishing and distribution revenue to maintain ~10% growth Publishing and distribution revenue lost momentum in H116, growing 8.5% and 11%YoY, respectively. Looking at the next two years, we expect publishing and distributionrevenue to grow ~10% YoY pa, helped by use of new teaching materials and fastgrowth in revenue from supplementary materials. Valuation: Maintain Rmb25.4 price target, Buy rating Our price target is based on DCF and assumes a 7.5% WACC. We will be re-visiting ourearnings forecasts.
上海机场 公路港口航运行业 2016-08-31 28.22 32.23 -- 28.10 -0.43%
28.12 -0.35%
详细
H116 net profit excl. one-offs rose 12.4% YoY; Q2 earnings grew 15% YoY. H116 revenue was Rmb3.4bn (+10% YoY), operating profit was Rmb1.84bn (+11%YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb1.41bn (+9% YoY); EPS camein at Rmb0.73; and net profit excluding one-offs rose 12.4% YoY, a return to doubledigitgrowth (Q1: +9.3%). Notably, Q2 earnings grew 15% YoY, much better thanQ1's 2% YoY rise. H116 earnings analysis: Multiple factors fuelled earnings growth acceleration. In our view, the main factors behind the return to double-digit net profit growth (excl. one-offs) in H1 are as follows: 1) China Eastern Airlines (based at the airport) launchednew international routes and increased the frequency of international flights. Withcharges for international routes more than double those for domestic routes, landingfees/passenger & cargo-related revenue went up 11%/14% YoY, outpacing aircraftmovement/passenger volume growth of 8%/11% YoY. 2) We estimate that 3,000-5,000 sqm of commercial space was added in Q2, pushing commercial rental revenueup 12% YoY. 3) Income from investment in Pudong Aviation Fuel jumped 51% YoY ona rebound in oil prices in H1. Outlook: YoY earnings growth likely to be better in Q3 than in Q2. We expect YoY earnings growth to be faster in Q3 than in Q2: 1) YoY aircraftmovement/passenger volume growth in Q3 will likely be better than in Q2, withinternational and regional passengers likely to represent 50%+ of total passengers,helped by continued rapid growth in outbound travel and the launch of internationalroutes, especially transcontinental routes. Charges for international routes are morethan double those for domestic routes, which could fuel faster YoY growth inaeronautical revenue. 2) Increased commercial space and percentage of internationalpassengers could boost duty-free sales, and commercial rental revenue could grow 12-15% YoY in Q3. 3) Income from investment in Pudong Aviation will likely continue torise quickly on a YoY basis. Valuation: Rmb33.20 price target; maintain Buy rating. Our 2016-18E EPS are Rmb1.53/1.8/2.06. Our PT of Rmb33.20 is based on 2.85x2016E P/B. We maintain our Buy rating.
黄山旅游 社会服务业(旅游...) 2016-08-30 16.12 19.42 115.30% 19.36 20.10%
19.36 20.10%
详细
H1 attributable NP +41% YoY; rapid growth matched expectations H116 revenue was Rmb730m (+12% YoY), operating profit was Rmb240m (+48%YoY), net profit (NP) attributable to shareholders was Rmb180m (+41% YoY, in linewith the pre-announced range) and EPS were Rmb0.23. Q216 revenue fell 2.2% YoY,while NP attributable to shareholders rose 6.7% YoY. Better transport and price hikes drove rapid growth; effective cost control We attribute the rapid earnings growth to the following: 1) Yuping Cableway's capacityexpansion and price hikes, combined with the opening of Hefei-Fuzhou high-speedrailway (HSR) in mid-2015, drove up tourist traffic to Huangshan 8.8% YoY in H116,better than the same period in 2013-15. Yuping Cableway contributed Rmb34.25m toattributable NP in H116 (vs. a net loss of Rmb2.37m in H115). 2) Operating cost growthslowed to 2%, markedly lower than revenue growth. Notably, effective cost control atthe hotel business helped substantially elevate gross margin, by 4.2ppts. 3) Thecompany's smaller loan principal and lower interest rates in the period caused a 57%YoY decrease in financial expenses. The negative revenue growth in Q216 was due to a6% YoY decline (vs. a 34% YoY increase in Q116) in tourist traffic to Huangshan,caused by wet weather.。 Wet weather to curb tourist traffic; cost control to drive 30% growth Tourist traffic to Huangshan and ticket income fell 27%/34%, respectively, in July, theresult of the reduced frequency of HSR runs caused by heavy rainfall in Huangshan andthe surrounding areas and last year's high comparison base, pushed up by greatermarketing efforts after the opening of HSR. We expect tourist traffic to remain underpressure in Q316. For the full year, we expect 30% growth in 2016 earnings, driven byeffective cost control. Valuation: Price target of Rmb20.33; Buy Our 2016-18E EPS are Rmb0.52/0.59/0.68. We derive our price target of Rmb20.33based on DCF methodology (WACC 7.1%). We maintain our Buy rating.
宋城演艺 传播与文化 2016-08-25 24.02 37.39 35.23% 25.79 7.37%
25.79 7.37%
详细
H116result review: net profit attributable to parent up 56% YoY In H116, the company recorded revenue of Rmb1.19bn (up 107% YoY), operatingprofit of Rmb550m (up 59% YoY), and net profit attributable to shareholders ofRmb430m (up 56% YoY), approaching the lower end of its preliminary earningsestimates. EPS came in at Rmb0.3, in line with expectation. In Q216, revenue and netprofit attributable to the parent rose 71% and 31%, respectively, slowing notablycompared with Q116. If excluding the influence of consolidation of 6Rooms into thefinancial statement, revenue/gross profit grew 16%/17% YoY, respectively. H116analysis: Hangzhou and Sanya projects drag earnings growth We believe the slowdown in YoY earnings growth was mainly due to: 1) rainy days inQ216caused the Hangzhou Songcheng scenic area revenue growth slowing to 17.4%YoY in H116, below 20.5% YoY growth in H115; 2) Tourist traffic to Sanya wasdiverted by the Southeast Asian market. Tourist traffic to Sanya Airport grew 4% YoYin H116, notably below 11% YoY growth in H115, which caused the Sanya projectrevenue to grow only 17% YoY (vs. 46% YoY growth in H115). Moreover, theinvestment in Langlanglang Water Park caused an increase in expenses. We expectSanya project's net profit growth to underperform revenue growth; 3) selling expenseratio was 9.7% in H116, notably above 2.3% in H115. Earnings growth may slow in 2016, expect high earnings growth in 2017-18 Outlook for H216: we expect growth in tourist traffic to Hangzhou headquarter to beunder pressure in August and early September due to the G20Summit, but traffic mayrecover in mid-to-late September after the Summit. Sanya's tourism data improved inJuly, however, we expect its full year net profit growth to slow down, impacted byincreased expenses from the new projects. We expect net profit to grow 40% YoY in2016. We expect online performance's net profit to grow 30%/30% YoY in 2017-18E,and contribute 22% to the company's net profit in 2017. Shanghai scenic area andmultiple scenic areas in other cities such as Guilin will open one after another, andexternal expansion is set to drive sustained high growth in earnings. Valuation: price target of Rmb38, maintain Buy Our 2016-18E EPS estimates are Rmb0.61/0.76/0.93. We derive our price target ofRmb38based on the DCF methodology (WACC 7.7%). Maintain Buy.
美盛文化 社会服务业(旅游...) 2016-08-24 34.88 22.83 241.77% 37.55 7.65%
37.73 8.17%
详细
H116review: Profit increased more than 70% H116operating revenue/net profit attributable to the parent company increased32%/72% YoY to Rmb190m/45m, with EPS at Rmb0.1. In Q2, net profit attributable tothe parent company rose 76% YoY to Rmb32m. H116analysis: IP derivatives, animation and games boosted profit growth In H116, profit in the IP derivative segment, which accounted for 54% of Meisheng’sgross profit, increased 66% YoY; gross profit in the animation and game segment rosemore than 300% YoY and represented more than 30% of Meisheng’s gross profit. Thecompany’s gross margin increased 12.3ppts YoY to 48.9%. Outlook: Games and animation derivatives likely to lead to fast profit growth We think the JV with JAKKS, its status as the sole supplier of Warcraft toys, and thesecond (launched already) and third (to be rolled out in Q317) seasons of the selfproducedanimated series “Magic Star Academy” are likely to help Meisheng’sanimation derivative revenue grow more than 30% YoY in 2016-17. We expectrevenue in the game segment to increase more than 30% YoY in 2016-18, withMeisheng’s gross margin continuing to improve. The company guided for 60-90% YoYprofit growth in Q1-Q316. Valuation: Lowering price target to Rmb41.5; maintain Buy rating Based on H116results, we reduce our 2016E animation derivative revenue YoY growthbut raise gross margin and administrative expense ratio. As a result, we lower our2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.48/0.71/0.96from Rmb0.52/0.75/1.04. We derive our newprice target of Rmb41.5(from Rmb45) using a DCF-based methodology(WACC=8.4%). We maintain our Buy rating.
中青旅 社会服务业(旅游...) 2016-08-16 21.29 26.05 115.65% 21.68 1.83%
25.26 18.65%
详细
H1 net profit up sharply 92% YoY, better than expectations H1 revenue was Rmb4.98bn (+4% YoY), operating profit was Rmb430m (+48% YoY),net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb320m (+92% YoY) and EPS wereRmb0.44, better than UBS-S and consensus expectations. Rapid growth in tourist numbers/large subsidies drove high profit growth We attribute CYTS's high earnings growth to: 1) Wuzhen: H1 tourist numbers rose23% YoY to 4.78m, of which Dongzha/Xizha's tourist numbers rose 17%/30% YoY to2.28/2.50m, and per-capita spending rose 6% YoY to Rmb147; 2) governmentsubsidies came in at Rmb190m (H115 non-operating income was Rmb44.66m); 3)integrated marketing: revenue rose 21% YoY to Rmb1.07bn and gross marginimproved 1.2ppts YoY; and 4) Gubei: tourist numbers rose 90% YoY to 935,000,revenue rose 94% YoY to Rmb300m and the settlement of property projectscontributed Rmb37m in investment gains. 2016 outlook: We expect high full-year profit growth 1) Wuzhen: we project full-year tourist numbers to rise c20% YoY; including subsidies,full-year profit is likely to post 30%+ growth. 2) Gubei: we project tourist numbers torise 30%+; including settlement of property projects, profit is likely to double. 3) Travelagency/aoyou.com: losses are likely to be much less than the cRmb100m incurred in2015. 4) Integrated marketing: with Bravolinks listed on the New Third Board in July,we project full-year earnings growth of c20%. Valuation: PT of Rmb26.60, maintain Buy Our 2016-18 EPS estimates are Rmb0.62/0.75/0.91. We will revisit our earningsestimates based on CYTS's interim results. Our DCF-based PT is Rmb26.60 (7.3%WACC). We maintain our Buy rating.
深圳机场 公路港口航运行业 2016-08-12 9.01 10.65 0.38% 9.70 7.66%
9.70 7.66%
详细
July passenger vol. +7.5% YoY; int'l passenger vol. continued high growth. The company's aircraft movements/passenger volume increased a respective 5.2%/7.5% YoY in July, with slower YoY growth than in June (5.4%/9.3%). We attribute theslower growth to the rainy weather. Cargo & mail volume increased 11.3% YoY, muchquicker than in July 2015. Notably, we estimate international passenger volume grewmore than 50% YoY and contributed 6% of total passenger volume, significantlyhigher than 4.2% in 2015. H116 earnings outlook: 20%+ profit growth likely. We estimate the company is likely to maintain c20% profit growth in H116, mainlybecause: 1) passenger volume recovered notably in Q216 (H116 volume YoY growth of4.7%, much better than 2.7% in Q116); and 2) financial expenses may declinesignificantly or turn into financial gains in H116 due to the conversion of convertiblebonds in May 2015 and redemption of corporate bonds in October. Outlook: We think peak-hour movements may have risen at end-July. 1) The company's terminals and runways have ample capacity and we estimate peakhourmovements may have risen at end-July and are likely to rise from 48 to 50 inAugust, with an upper limit of 60. 2) With new slots to be mainly allocated tointernational routes, we estimate international passenger volume could account for10% of total passenger volume in 2020, up from 4.2% in 2015. 3) Given the lack ofmajor capex in 2016-18, we look for a core profit CAGR of 10%+ over this period,with ROE likely to rise from 4.6% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2018. Valuation: Maintain Rmb11 PT and Buy rating. We maintain our DCF-based price target of Rmb11 (WACC 7.3%) and Buy rating.
峨眉山A 社会服务业(旅游...) 2016-08-09 12.25 14.49 140.70% 13.68 11.67%
14.04 14.61%
详细
We expect visitors and ticket revenue to sustain double-digit growth. We expect visitor traffic to Emei Mountain to maintain double-digit growth in 2016-18,given: 1) The Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed railway (HSR) is set to launch in late2015, and a major tourism circuit is on course to open in H117; and 2) the company isexpected to develop a southern circuit (Baoguo Temple-Zhanggou-Sijiping-Wanfo Peak)within the scenic zone, creating a bi-directional loop and boosting accessibility. Considering the low base in 2015 and rapid growth in visitor traffic, we expect ticketrevenue to grow at 10-18% YoY in 2016-18. Cableway earnings likely to resume positive YoY growth in 2016. Cableway gross profit fell 0.6% YoY in 2015, mainly because of a drop in gross margin(to 76%) due to higher maintenance costs. We assume 2016 gross margin stays flat on2015, with higher visitor traffic and a higher ridership rate driving a 13% YoY increasein 2016 gross profit. Performing arts project opening in late 2016, but limited near-term rev impact. We expect the company's performing arts project to open in late 2016, with ticketslikely to be bundled with the company's scenic area products and promoted inpartnership with travel agencies. We forecast additional revenue from tourismperforming arts of Rmb18m/31m in 2017/18, or 1.3%/2.1% of overall revenue,suggesting a limited impact. Valuation: Lowering PT to Rmb15; maintain Buy rating. We are lowering our gross margin assumption for cableways on higher maintenancecosts. We are also raising our 2017-18 selling and administrative expense ratioassumptions, reflecting: 1) more promotional and distribution expenses after theperforming arts project opens; and 2) potentially higher personnel costs. Takingeverything into account, we are lowering our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.42/0.48/0.55from Rmb0.45/0.52/0.59. Our new Rmb15 price target (from Rmb16.2) is derived usingDCF and assumes a 7.2% WACC. We maintain our Buy rating.
美盛文化 社会服务业(旅游...) 2016-08-04 34.80 24.75 270.51% 37.55 7.90%
37.73 8.42%
详细
The animation industry is in a high-development stage The animation industry's success model is to form an industrial chain focusing on IPs:promoting them with broadcasting and performance and making a profit on derivatives(70% of the global animation industry's production value is from derivatives). China'sanimation output had a CAGR of 30.4% in 2001-13 with policy support and replacedJapan to become the largest in the world. In 2014, China's animation production valueexceeded Rmb100bn, up 15% YoY. However, that was still less than 10% of that ofJapan and 5% of that of the US in 2012. The industry entered a consolidation andtransformation period in 2010: an emphasis on premium products prompted theindustry to pay more attention to per-unit output, which continued to improve in 2010-12. Corporate strategy: Continue to optimize animation industrial chain via M&A The company has extended into the upstream/downstream sectors along the animationindustrial line since 2013. It acquired Dishun Technology, Xingmeng, a Dutchdistributor for animation products, kumi.cn (an animation video website) andjoyreach.com (a game service platform), forming a preliminary integrated animationindustrial chain from proprietary animation originality, production, distribution andoperation to derivative design and online & offline sales channels. We expect thecompany to enhance its presence along the industrial chain: acquiring/investing inanimation originality companies, partnering with satellite channels, etc. We expect itsrevenue to grow 65%/40%/35% YoY in 2016-18E. Outlook: Animation derivatives & game revenue likely to sustain high growth We expect the company's animation derivative revenue to grow 30%+ YoY in 2016-17E, driven by its JV with JAKKS, obtaining the position of exclusive toy supplier basedon the movie Warcraft and with the gradual launch of seasons 2 and 3 of itsproprietary animation, Magic Star Academy. We expect its game business profit togrow 30%+ in 2016-18E and gross margin to continue rising during the same period. Valuation: Lowering price target to Rmb45; maintain Buy As the sluggish European economy may have a negative impact on the company'sanimation derivative product exports, we are lowering our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.52/0.75/1.04 from Rmb0.57/0.83/1.15 and derive our new price target of Rmb45 (fromRmb48.4) based on DCF methodology (WACC 8.5%). We maintain our Buy rating.
黄山旅游 社会服务业(旅游...) 2016-07-21 16.76 19.42 115.30% 16.72 -0.24%
19.36 15.51%
详细
Earnings up 40%~45% in H116 The company released its preliminary interim results, estimating net profit attributableto shareholders up 40-45% YoY. We estimate its earnings may have grown 6-11%YoY in Q216. Better traffic expedites tourist growth; cost & expense control shows effect Based on our analysis, substantial growth in H116 earnings was mainly due to: 1) theopening of Hefei-Fuzhou high-speed railway (HSR) in 2015 accelerated tourist trafficgrowth and there were 1.41m tourists to Huangshan in H116, up 8.8% YoY, notablybetter than the same period in 2013-15; 2) the Yuping Cableway capacity wasexpanded in 2015 and the ticket price was raised by Rmb10; and 3) the company'scosts and expenses dropped moderately through strengthened internal controls andmanagement. Outlook: bad weather may drag down peak-season tourist volume Based on our estimates, the company's tourist volume may have dropped c6% YoY inQ216, mainly due to poor weather conditions. Given the rainy conditions in Huangshanand its surrounding areas since July, we expect its tourist volume may be impactedduring the summer holiday peak season. However, given its successful cost controls, westill expect full-year 2016 earnings to grow 30% YoY. Moreover, according to anumber of major Chinese media reports, the Hangzhou-Huangshan HSR is likely tocommence operations in August 2017, earlier than expected. It will take only 1.5 hoursto travel from Hangzhou to Huangshan, and this reduced travel time is likely to drive upgrowth in passenger traffic. Valuation: price target of Rmb20.33, Buy Our 2016-18E EPS estimates are Rmb0.52/0.59/0.68, and we derive our price target ofRmb20.33 based on a DCF methodology (WACC 7.1%). Maintain Buy rating.
深圳机场 公路港口航运行业 2016-07-14 8.49 10.65 0.38% 9.48 11.66%
9.70 14.25%
详细
Passenger volume +9.3% YoY in June; continually quicker growth since March. The company's aircraft movements/passenger volume increased a respective 5.4%/9.3% YoY in June, with continually quicker YoY growth since March. We estimateinternational passenger volume and cargo & mail volume increased 20%/12.4% YoY,respectively, much quicker than YoY growth since 2011. H116 earnings outlook: 20%+ profit growth likely. We believe the company will maintain 20%+ profit growth in H116, mainly because: 1)passenger volume recovered notably in Q216 (H116 volume YoY growth at 4.7%,much better than 2.7% in Q116); and 2) financial expenses may decline significantly orturn into financial gains in 2016 due to conversion of convertible bonds in May 2015and redemption of corporate bonds in October. Outlook: We expect peak-hour movements to rise to 50 in August. 1) The company's terminals and runways have ample capacity and we forecast peakhourmovements to rise from 48 to 50 in August and reach 60 in 2019. 2) With newslots to be mainly allocated to international routes, we estimate international passengervolume could account for 10% of total passenger volume in 2020, up from 4.2% in2015. 3) Given the lack of major capex in 2016-18, we look for a core profit CAGR of10%+ over this period, with ROE likely to rise from 4.6% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2018. Valuation: Maintain Rmb11 PT and Buy rating. We maintain our DCF-based price target of Rmb11 (WACC 7.3%) and Buy rating.
中南传媒 传播与文化 2016-07-01 17.99 22.43 80.74% 19.08 6.06%
19.60 8.95%
详细
2016-18E publishing and distribution revenue to maintain double-digit growth Helped by high revenue growth of supplementary materials, higher prices of teachingmaterials and an increase in subjects, we expect the company's 2016-18revenue frompublishing and distribution of supplementary/teaching materials to rise 13%/12.7%/12.7% YoY to drive the publishing and distribution segment to continuous double-digitrevenue growth. Digital publishing likely to sustain 50%+ revenue growth in next 3years We estimate digital publishing to increase its earnings contribution from 2.7% in 2015to 9.4% by 2020, because: 1) the company plans to sign contracts with 20,000schools, which gives it considerable growth potential; 2) in terms of product mix, weexpect the gradual increase in the contribution of educational materials, which aremore profitable, to drive improvement in profit margin; and 3) the strategic partnershipwith Pearson is likely to bring in advanced foreign technology and established contentresources. ROE to lead listed peers The company's 2015ROE of 15.6% was 3.3ppts higher than the industry average,second only to Southern Media's 17.7% in the industry. Its ROE has been rising steadilysince 2010. We expect the company's ROE to rise to 16%/17% in 2016-17. Based onWind consensus, it should continue to lead the industry. Valuation: Lower EPS estimates; lower PT; maintain Buy on attractive valuation With intense competition in digital publishing, we are lowering our estimated grossmargin of the hardware and software segment and lowering our 2016-18E EPS toRmb1.09/1.30/1.69from Rmb1.16/1.44/1.88. Our DCF-based PT is Rmb25.40(7.5%WACC, from Rmb28.20). The stock is trading at only 16x 2016E PE, lower than theindustry average of 22x. As the company could enjoy valuation premiums since itsearnings growth could outpace the industry in upcoming years, we maintain our Buy
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