New order from Huadian to add 380m cbm/year of gas volume. Shenzhen Gas announced it signed a framework purchase and sales agreement withHuadian Power International's subsidiary in Shenzhen to supply 380m cbm/year of gasto the latter's distributed power generation project in Pingshan New District. Thecompany will see a c15% increase in its gas sales volume if the project runs smoothlyand consumes 50% of the planned volume. Although the company's profit/cbm underthe agreement may be lower than its average gas transmission and distribution cost,we believe the ROE may still be high due to the substantial volume. Distributed gas-fired power generation delivers good return. If they can achieve utilisation hours of at least 3,000 annually, distributed gas-firedpower generating units are likely to obtain high rates of return in regions with goodeconomic conditions, such as southern China. The only bottleneck they are facing, ie,support from the power grid, is likely to gradually disappear with China's reform of thepower grid business. In addition, as it has advantages in terms of peak shaving, and gasis a clean energy source, distributed gas-fired power generation may benefit from theoverall energy strategy of reducing coal consumption. Tapping downstream market to build foundation for upstream trade. Shenzhen Gas' upstream LNG terminals are likely to come on-stream in 2017, and astable downstream customer base provides the necessary support for the upstreambusiness. Although PetroChina's West-East pipeline gas has to be used for the gas-firedpower generation project, the company may improve its mix of raw materials byimporting more LNG from the spot market. Therefore, we believe the company willfurther benefit from its strengths in importing LNG. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating. We keep our Rmb11 PT and Buy rating unchanged. Our DCF-based PT (6.3% WACC)implies 26.8x 2017E PE. In the near term, Shenzhen Gas may see downward pressureon its gross profit from PetroChina's gas price hikes. However, the company hasaggressively diversified its upstream gas sources. Moreover, it is operating in aneconomically developed region where energy prices are high and downstream demandfor gas is likely to maintain rapid growth.

Q316 net profit in line with our expectation The company posted Q316 net profit of Rmb10bn and EPS of Rmb0.08, in line with ourexpectation. Average crude price was US$45/bbl in Q316, basically flat QoQ. Chemicalengineering and marketing business saw QoQ improvement in earnings, and upstreamearnings dropped slightly. What is the most noteworthy in the results? In Q316, the company benefited less from inventory income resulting from crude priceincreases; we believe its Q316 earnings could basically represent its normal profitabilitywhen crude price is at US$45/bbl. If crude price continues to rise, we think upstreambusiness still has significant room to increase earnings. Q316 net profit came in atRmb5.8bn, thanks to strong downstream demand, mid-to-low oil prices, strong PPprices and continued improvement in alkene's earnings. In terms of marketing business,the company's per-ton earnings improved slightly QoQ in Q316, benefiting from lowwholesale price for refined oil. When crude oil prices are relatively stable, thecompany's refining business could realize a gross profit of US$3.4/bbl, which weattribute to actual earnings improvement in a thorough implementation of premiumquality at reasonable prices. Our EPS estimates may have upside risks Our EPS estimates may have upside risks, as the company still achieved 5.8%annualized ROE when crude oil price was at US$45/bbl, thanks to its advantages inbusiness integration. We expect the company's EPS to increase by Rmb0.06/share foreach US$10/bbl increase in crude prices. Valuation: price target of Rmb7.15, Buy rating We believe overall investor reaction will be lacklustre in the short term, mainly asearnings expectation for the company needs to be driven by oil prices. Currently, theintrinsic value of its upstream business is still below UBS's estimate of US$60/bbl for2017 crude prices. Our price target is based on 14.3x our 2017 PE estimate.

Q3 loss was due to Dezhou plant accident's impact on supply chain. The company posted a Rmb6m net loss in Q3, in line with our estimate but at the lowerend of the guidance given in the interim report. On the one hand, slow progresstowards resuming production after the Dezhou plant accident resulted in significantlosses. On the other hand, the accident also affected Lianhe's supply chain, causingrevenue declines for the company's other businesses, while below-peak operating ratesin the pesticide segment led to gross margin declines. We expect sequential improvement in Q4. Although variable-cost margin did not deteriorate in Q3, profit margin declined due toa jump in per-unit depreciation costs given lower processing volume (under 70% of thelevel in Q315). We estimate that the company could swing back to profit in Q4 (thecompany is guiding for Q4 profit of Rmb20-220m), as losses from the Dezhou projectwill decline after production resumes. Industrywide recovery in pesticide exports may continue in 2017. China's pesticide exports (excluding herbicides) have stopped declining and resumedgrowth since mid-year. While recoveries in credit and planting in South America couldhave an adverse impact, exports to Southeast Asia and India have maintained positiveYoY growth. We believe that due to healthy business development for agriculturalproducts, crop protection demand may have already started recovering in certainregions and for certain types of crops. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating. We maintain our Buy rating and Rmb21.16 price target. Our PT is derived by applying23x PE to average 2016-17E EPS. We believe global agricultural crop prices willrebound in 2017, driving a recovery in the crop protection segment. Therefore, weexpect the company's earnings to show noticeable sequential improvement during2017. We see downside risk to our earnings estimates due to the Dezhou accident andits impact on Lianhe's supply chain.

Rising TDI price has a positive impact on some MDI prices China's TDI price has increased from Rmb20,000/t at end-September to Rmb50,000/t.This has been driven by various factors, including Covestro declaring force majeure inearly October on its European production facilities, which have capacity to producec370kt of MDI and c300kt of TDI, causing them to operate at reduced capacity. Also,an explosion at BASF's chemical plant in Germany yesterday (17 Oct) could limit itsproduction capacities of 190kt of BDO and 300kt of TDI.。 TDI's positive impact on MDI-50 has appeared Because it can be used to replace TDI in the manufacture of plastic runways andhardeners, MDI-50's price rose sharply from Rmb20,000/t in early October toRmb30,000/t. Based on a price of Rmb50,000/t for TDI, we estimate the price of MDI-50 could reach Rmb40,000/t if it is used as a substitute for TDI. Currently, MDI-50 has aprice premium of cRmb12,000/t over normal polymeric MDI. Demand may have a seasonal decline, as downstream acceptance is limited Recently rising TDI and PO prices have weighed on the profit margins of downstreampolyurethane (PU) companies, with some soft foam companies already facing aprecarious profitability outlook. Meanwhile, Covestro and BASF are likely to graduallyresume production. Considering the sustainability of TDI prices and the likelihood thattheir effect on boosting MDI prices may gradually weaken, as well as a seasonaldemand decline for MDI from the construction industry, we see downside risks to PUraw material prices. Valuation: Maintain Buy Wanhua has MDI production capacity of Rmb1.8mt, including about 30kt for MDI-50.If its price can remain at Rmb30,000/t, MDI-50 could contribute an annualised profit ofabout Rmb500m to the company. We believe the market strongly expects a seasonaldecline in MDI prices but MDI earnings are likely to remain at their average from 2013-14, a relatively stable high-profit stage. Therefore, we maintain our Buy rating. Ourprice target of Rmb30.50 is based on 17.3x 2016E PE.

2017: MDI fundamentals are likely to remain strong MDI prices have hit repeated record highs recently and margins are close to their 2013level. Although prices could pull back after November 2016, the global MDI operatingrate could be back above 85%, helped by limited new capacity in 2017 and Wanhua'sstrong price control, in our view. Therefore, we believe average profit is likely to stayabove its 2015 level and get close to its 2013-14 average. The polyurethane segmentprofit could rise YoY, as specialty amine and modified MDI could maintain rapid profitgrowth on Wanhua's aggressive new-materials R&D. PDH profit boosted by lower propane freight rates PDH profit has continued to improve YTD, with the price spread widening toRmb3,100/t and gross profit averaging >Rmb1,000/t, due to: 1) Far East propane pricesbeing weighed down by lower freight costs; and 2) propylene prices being driven up bystrong downstream demand. We expect Wanhua to maintain a PDH gross profit of>Rmb800/t in 2017 on low propane prices and rapidly growing demand for propylene. Cutting EPS forecasts: Poor profit for other downstream petrochemical projects We are lowering our 2016-18E EPS 9.7%/8.9%/8.3% to Rmb1.76/2.13/2.43. While weare lifting our profit estimates for MDI, we are cutting our profit forecasts forpetrochemicals due to the poor profitability of other downstream projects (eg, acrylics)and cutting our profit estimates for SAP and coatings due to slower progress than weexpected. Valuation: Maintain Buy We are trimming our price target to Rmb30.50 from Rmb33.44, still based on 17.3x2016E PE. The market expects falling property investment in 2017 to cause MDIdemand growth to slow and profit to drop. We see continued strong fundamentals forMDI in 2017, given limited new supply and Wanhua's strong price control.

Wanhua raised its MDI price quote 38%, although that may be unsustainable. According to Chem366, Wanhua raised its polymeric MDI price quote Rmb5,500/tonneto Rmb20,000/tonne (+38%). The last time it quoted Rmb20,000/tonne for MDI was in2012, when the oil price was US$110/bbl. Since the explosion at Wanhua's BajiaoIndustrial Park, distributors have raised the polymeric MDI price by a wide margin,resulting in the MDI end-market retail price rising to Rmb19,200/tonne fromRmb17,000/tonne, compared with Wanhua's quoted price of Rmb12,400/tonne inSeptember. We don't think Wanhua's actual shipment has dropped significantlybecause Wanhua Ningbo has sufficient idle capacity to support supply. Although theMDI price is unlikely to stay at Rmb20,000/tonne, we think Wanhua could maintaingood profitability in 2017, since the overall competitive landscape has not changedmuch. The petrochemical equipment utilization rate and propylene price are still high. The impact of the high rate on petrochemical equipment may be negligible at thecurrent stage. Although the propane price has slightly picked up, we think Wanhuamay still gain from good PDH fundamentals if its equipment resumes operation inOctober after maintenance is done, since the propylene price is now nearly Rmb7,000/tonne. Q316 results could continue to improve sequentially. We expect QoQ improvement for Wanhua's Q316 results, since the average pricespread between polymeric MDI and benzene (unit consumption of 0.6) increased 15%QoQ to Rmb8,975 in Q316, a level seen in H114. The utilization rate of PDH devices isgood and we estimate monthly profit could be nearly Rmb100m, assuming full loadoperation. As such, we estimate Wanhua's net profit will be approximately Rmb1.3bnin Q316. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating. We maintain our Buy rating and PT of Rmb33.44 (based on 17x 2016E PE). Currently,the MDI industry cycle is at a peak level and Wanhua has strong control in the industry. We estimate the company's MDI and propylene profit may decline in Q416 due tolower output, but it will still rebound visibly on a YoY basis.

Still relatively high upside for organic growth in Shenzhen. The natural gas penetration rate among residents in Shenzhen is lower than that inmature markets, eg, Beijing and Shanghai, with only c50% of homes having access tonatural gas. With faster renovation of the old town area, the company signed contractswith 200k new users in H116. We estimate it will provide natural gas access to 40k-50khomes per year. LNG imports have high profit potential; demand growth is key. As investment in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) peak shaving facility was onlyRmb1.6bn, with cRmb100m of operating expenses, we estimate the company willmake a sizable profit, assuming the spread between the spot LNG price and the price ofLNG transported in the second West-East gas pipeline remains Rmb0.7/m3, with thefacility reaching its designed storage capacity of 1bn m3. Based on the current dynamicsof LNG trading in the Pearl River Delta, we think the market is big. Consideringinterconnection between pipelines, the company guided it is very likely for the facility toreach designed capacity in three years. Cost monitoring required, but current return has not reached upper limit. The National Development and Reform Commission has required tighter monitoring ofup- and midstream gas transmission cost and downstream gas distribution cost, but wecontinue to believe the company faces relatively low regulatory risk: 1) With a totalasset return of c6%, the company has not reached the regulatory threshold of 8%;2) Shenzhen does not have connection fees, and residential and non-residential naturalgas prices in the city are largely the same; and 3) Guangdong province’s economicstructure has a relatively high acceptance level for natural gas. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating. We maintain our Buy rating on Shenzhen Gas and derive our price target of Rmb11using DCF-based methodology (6.3% WACC), implying 26.8x 2017E PE.

Tough times in global agrochemical market, but glimmers of hope emerging. Conditions deteriorated across the global agrochemical market in H116, with leadingproducers posting revenue declines in the 10-20% range. Globally, we expect costeffectiveness of agricultural products to stay flat in the near term amid more balancedsupply-demand for agricultural products. As a result, balance should return to theagrochemical market, accompanied by falling channel inventories. A recovery inagrochemicals would likely drive higher orders for Lianhe's pesticide intermediates. Solid organic growth in pharmaceutical segment. We believe Lianhe's pharmaceutical business remains driven by organic growth. Following the launch of the Taizhou and Yancheng facilities, its products have receivedrecognition from international pharmaceutical makers. In the future, this business islikely to achieve profit growth by developing new products and expanding production. In addition, the company has also been actively seeking out M&A opportunities sincemid-2015, which could drive inorganic growth. Downgrading earnings forecast. We are lowering our 2016-18E EPS 9%/9.9%/7.8% to Rmb0.81/1.03/1.17 fromRmb0.89/1.14/1.27, as: 1) we are lowering our agrochemical earnings growth andgross profit estimates, reflecting earnings declines due to the industry downcycle; and2) we are cutting our pharmaceutical revenue growth estimates given the company'sslow progress in M&A. Valuation: Lowering price target; maintain Buy rating. On the back of our EPS changes, we are lowering our price target to Rmb21.16 (basedon applying 23x PE on average 2016-17E EPS; old PT based on 26x 2016E PE). Webelieve the market is now expecting full-year earnings to decline following the interimresults. Potential upside catalysts include: 1) Lianhe making acquisitions in thepharmaceutical sector; and 2) a recovery in the pesticide market driving improvement inorders and profit. We maintain our Buy rating.

H1: Net profit up 40%; power station demand recovered, rising 50%. Net profit was Rmb540m in H1 (+40% YoY), including Rmb760m in piped gas profit(+14% YoY). The results were supported by a 50% recovery in demand from gas-firedpower stations and 13% growth in non-Shenzhen gas sales. Meanwhile, LPGwholesaling turned around its losses to deliver a Rmb56m profit, with this return togrowth being another key driver in H1. Solid organic growth, LNG trading to become new highlights. We believe the company's solid growth will be supported by higher gas usage bothinside and outside Shenzhen. In addition, the Shenzhen LNG terminal is set to finishconstruction in 2017. As a scarce resource in southern China, the LNG terminal is likelyto help the company maximize profits across the value chain as liberalization of naturalgas pricing proceeds. Equity incentives: Widely deployed, and upper limit on gains still far away. The company has awarded a total of 32.19m restricted shares as equity incentives(1.48% of outstanding shares). The 319 recipients include key members of middlemanagement, and the exercise price is Rmb4.57 per share. The Shenzhen SASACrequires that investment gains from equity incentives account for no more than 40% ofemployee earnings (investment gains + salary); specifically, cumulative investment gainsover a three-year period may not exceed 200% of annual salary (assuming salaryremains constant). We believe the company's industry presence, execution abilities andmanagement willingness could all contribute to earnings growth well in excess of thevesting requirements (annual earnings growth of 10%, ROE >10%). Valuation: Maintain Buy rating. We maintain our Buy rating and Rmb10.64 price target (DCF, WACC=6.3%), implying26x 2017E PE.

Q216net profit beat expectations; MDI fundamentals continued to improve Wanhua's Q216net profit rose 69% QoQ to Rmb920m, which we attribute to thesubstantial QoQ improvement in MDI (methylene diphenyl diisocyanate) profit and theprofit contribution from the new materials business. MDI oligopoly was stable; supply control to improve industry profit margin Although MDI capacity was in excess overall, MDI prices continued to go up and profitsimproved in Q216because the operating rate at the BASF facility in Chongqingremained low, new capacity was actually limited, and H116saw restocking on top ofdominant industry players' supply control. We expect MDI prices to pull back slightlydue to the low season in Q316, but overall MDI fundamentals will likely remain stronguntil new capacity comes on stream. Profits likely to rise QoQ on ramp-up of petrochemical projects in Q3 Wanhua's PDH (propane dehydrogenation) facility started operation in June. Propyleneprices remain high, propane prices are in a seasonal trough, and PO prices are on therise. Overall profitability remains high. We expect price spreads to stay largely stable inQ316, but with the ramp-up of PDH, the profits of petrochemical projects are likely toincrease rapidly in Q316. Valuation: Maintain Buy; upbeat on rapid profit growth of new materials We maintain our Buy rating and Rmb33.44price target (based on 17x 2016E PE).Although Wanhua's earnings are now more cyclical in nature, we expect there is stillroom for valuation to improve with the rapid development of the new materialsbusiness.

Crude oil prices could rise to US$60in 2017amid fluctuations UBS has raised its 2016-17crude oil price forecast from US$$42.4/bbl and US$55/bblto US$46.1/bbl and US$60/bbl, respectively. In H216, although crude oil supply outagesmay diminish partially and there may also be seasonal fluctuations in demand, weexpect oil supply-demand to be close to equilibrium and oil prices to remain strong inthe medium term, because: 1) even if the rig count stops falling, US shale oilproduction will still likely decline due to inertia and may not bottom out until H117; 2)medium-term demand growth could remain robust; and 3) sustained low capexspending and continuing shortage of new projects may lead to a sharp drop in thesupply of new projects in 2018-19. We are raising our earnings estimates as upstream earnings improve We are raising our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.27/0.5/0.61from Rmb0.24/0.45/0.61, basedon the higher UBS oil price forecast. We are raising our 2016-17E EBIT for the upstreamE&P segment to Rmb-33bn/0bn from Rmb-37bn/-9bn. Market ascribing negative upstream value; limited risk from N-T oil weakness Based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP), we calculate that the market is ascribing anegative value for the company's upstream segment. The share price no longerincreased after oil reached US$40. We believe the market has overlooked not only theimprovement in the company's upstream earnings and cash flow, but also thepossibility that the chemical segment will maintain strong fundamentals in Q3. Webelieve even if oil prices weaken in the near term, the downward pressure on thecompany's share price may be limited. However, over the medium term, the share priceshould see higher upside potential than downside risk. Valuation: Raising PT to Rmb7.15; maintain Buy We are raising our PT to Rmb7.15(from Rmb6.44), based on 14.3x 2017E PE. Webelieve crude oil prices are likely to go up in 2016and continue to climb to US$60in2017. The market currently expects crude oil prices to stop rising at US$50within thenext 6-12months and thus ascribes a negative valuation to the company's upstreamsegment. However, as oil prices show an increasingly higher support level, we believethe market will gradually recognize the company's value, and thus maintain our Buyrating.

Substantial profit potential for gas imports. The company's LNG peak shaving terminals are set for mid-2017 operation. We expectglobal oversupply in LNG to continue. The spot LNG price will be Rmb0.75/cum lowerthan the price of gas transported via the Second West-East Gas Pipeline. We estimatethe company could import LNG to lower the average gas purchase cost and end-userprices, boosting gross profit and stimulating demand. On the other hand, the companycould participate in Guangdong spot LNG trading to increase profit. Lower policy risks for GD despite higher expectations of price controls. In the slack gas demand season, expectations have risen for strengthened cost controlsover city gas and pipeline transmission. However, we believe Guangdong is an areawhere residential and industrial gas prices have converged, with diversified downstreampipelines and gas sources. Compared with places such as Zhejiang, Guangdong faceslower policy risks (the government forcing prices down, squeezing city gas gross profits)thanks to marketization, coupled with no installation fees. Raising earnings estimates. We raise our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.37/0.41/0.45 from Rmb0.34/0.39/0.42: (1) Weincorporate LNG terminals' import profits into our estimates; and (2) We slightly raiseour gross spread assumptions for the company while lowering our gas sales volumeforecasts due to a smaller decline in end-user gas prices than in the prices of gassources of the Second West-East Gas Pipeline last year. Valuation: Raising PT; maintain Buy rating. We raise our DCF-based price target to Rmb10.64 (WACC 6.3%), which implies 26x2017E PE. We maintain our Buy rating, as the company's valuation is close to those ofAsian peers. LNG terminal construction progressing as expected is a catalyst, whilepolicy regulation is a downside risk.

Negative valuation of upstream segment unlikely to persist. Based on SOTP, we calculate the market ascribes a per-share value of negativeRmb1.14 for the company's upstream segment. We believe the market's bearishnesson the segment is excessive and unlikely to persist over the long term, as: 1) Crudeprices have hit bottom and are set to embark on a bumpy but upward trend, in ourview. In the long term, we expect prices to return to the US$75/bbl level needed tospur new investment; 2) Sinopec's total upstream costs are ~US$50/bbl, of which cashcosts are under US$20/bbl. As cash flow is still positive despite low oil prices, thesegment should still have positive value based on DCF; and 3) There is no inverserelationship between Sinopec's downstream segment and the price of crude. Petrochemicals helped by limited L-T supply growth; high profits to persist. Domestic prices and spreads on petrochemical products have recovered in H116 relativeto H215, supported by expectations of rising crude prices, low channel inventories, andexpectations of loose monetary policy and supply-side reforms. We think speculativedemand could face near-term pressure in Q2, causing petrochemical prices to correct. However, overall earnings should remain strong. Over the long term, demand forpetrochemical products in China is mostly related to consumption, while tighterenvironmental and credit policies will likely make it much more difficult to add newsupply. Thus, we think the strong fundamentals in petrochemcials could last longer. Q2 refining and marketing earnings still high as crude prices grind upward. Crude prices have recovered to ~US$50/bbl. In Q1, refining profits faced challengingcomparables despite extra earnings from China's floor price for refined petroleumproducts. In Q2, we expect refining earnings to benefit significantly from inventorygains but remain sequentially flat overall. However, we believe the marketing businessshould enjoy stronger earnings due to price hikes for refined petroleum products. Valuation: Upgrading to Buy on defensiveness, upstream rerating. We upgrade our 2016-17E earnings to Rmb0.24/0.45 from Rmb0.23/0.44, reflectingslightly better than expected refining profit. Our target PE remains unchanged at 14.3x(historical average: 15x). Applying this to our 2017E EPS, we raise our PT to Rmb6.44from Rmb5.03. Based on SOTP, our PT implies a 78% NAV discount for the upstreamsegment (L-T oil at US$75) and 6-7x EV/EBITDA for downstream. We believe an upwardtrend in crude prices would help to dispel bearishness about its upstream segment, andQ2 earnings are likely to show sequential improvement. We upgrade to Buy.

三季度MDI需求疲弱万华成本优势凸显 公司三季度净利润4.16亿元,EPS为0.19元,环比下降24%。三季度由于冰箱空调家电需求疲软,导致MDI-纯苯的价差环比下降18%,且为了控制价格,公司控制了宁波的产能开工率,且八角MDI开工率偏低,整体折旧偏高,但公司的成本优势仍然明显,因此毛利率仅下降到28%(二季度为35%)。 MDI寡头控量保价价格可能回升 九月聚合MDI下跌至9000元/吨,已到国内成本较高的企业的完全成本线以下,仅略高于可变成本。我们预计现在进入淡季,寡头控量保价的积极性将有所提升,根据卓创资讯,近期国内主要厂商的开工率不到70%,重庆BASF的MDI低开工率运行,接下来部分企业还有检修计划。因此聚合MDI价格在国庆期间从9300/吨已经上升到9800元/吨,我们预计未来价格可能较之前继续回升,但回升高度仍看贸易商和下游对明年的需求预期。 一体化项目逐步投产成本较低 公司的石化一体化项目逐步投产,虽然近期由于丙烯单体价格大幅下跌,PDH理论盈利陷入亏损,但下游的PO/AE项目已经完成试车,PO价格维持高位运行,仅较去年同期下跌10%,可对冲部分的MTBE利润下滑。 估值:维持“买入”评级和33.44元目标价不变 MDI四季度可能受到控量保价的影响,盈利有望回升。我们维持公司的“买入”评级和33.44元目标价不变。该目标价基于2015年22倍PE得出。

深圳深化民用阶梯气价 根据《深圳特区报》,深圳将在10月29日举行听证会,将完善民用天然气阶梯价格体制:维持第一档和第二档的气价为3.5元/方和4.2元/方不变,另设第三档气价为5.25元/方。届时,具体操作细节将有两个方案可供选择,根据深圳发改委调查和测算,仅有4%左右的消费者的天然气消费支出会增加,因此民用天然气的实现均价变化不大。 天然气门站价调整临近深圳民用气门站价可能下降 全国临近取暖季,天然气门站价下调的预期逐步升温,且考虑到今年以来的需求疲软,我们认为下调幅度不排除达到0.7元/方的可能,且可能在部分地区民用用气将加快与非民用气价格接轨。(详见2015年9月2日发布的报告《中国天然气行业-民用门站气价如上调可缓解天然气供需矛盾》)。深圳已实现民用和工业气的价格接轨,可能两种气源的门站价同步下调,但如新阶梯气价通过听证会,民用销售终端价格在未来不下调,深圳燃气的民用气配气的利润可能上升。 如工业气价下调将有助于需求恢复 我们估计三季度深圳等南方地区的天然气工业需求增长疲软,如今年四季度起门站价下调,且天然气终端价格下行,可能推动工业天然气需求增长,因此将有利于深圳燃气的利润增长。 估值:维持“买入”评级 我们认为天然气价格下调的预期,可能带动燃气板块的投资热情。深圳燃气的民用气利润可能将受益于门站价下降,我们维持公司的12.40元的目标价和“买入”评级不变。该目标价基于瑞银的VCAM贴现现金流估值模型得出(WACC=7.1%),对应2016年EPS的28XPE。