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研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
双汇发展 食品饮料行业 2017-07-14 22.67 20.26 -- 22.15 -2.29%
28.57 26.03%
详细
The Group is a leading meat processor in Chinawith a strong commitmentto product quality; itspackaged meat products had a 39.6% market share in the national supermarket channelin 2016 § The Group has a diversified product portfolio that includes fresh meat and packaged meat products; it also fine-tunesthe product portfolio to cater to new consumer tastes The Group has a long track record of managing its working capitalefficientlyandmaintaininga low leverage; its cost effectiveness improved in 2016 We project the Group’s revenue to grow at 6.72%CAGR in 2016-19E;net profit (to shareholders of the Company) togrow at 13.24%CAGRin 2016-19E Initiatewith BUY; current TP represents 18.97x/16.44x 17E/18E P/E, or 6.27x/6.04x 17E/18E P/B
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-05-12 17.45 -- -- 20.62 18.17%
21.78 24.81%
详细
Decent growth momentum in 1Q17.In 1Q17, Yili recorded revenue growth of 3.03% YoY, a decent improvement over the 0.41% YoY in FY16. Gross profit grew 10.49% YoY, while net profit (to shareholders of the Company) rose 11.58% YoY. Growth momentum in 1Q17 suggests adecent recovery. Continued margin expansion. Although GPM declined slightly from 38.25% in FY16 to 37.93% in 1Q17; NPM improved from 9.34% in FY16 to 10.98% in 1Q17; OPM expanded from 8.56% in FY16 to 12.15% in 1Q17. The margin improvement can be attributed to the lower SG&A/sales ratio (FY16: 28.99% vs. 1Q17: 25.03%). In 1Q17, ROAA increased from 3.9% in 1Q16 to 4.24%while ROAE was 7.24% vs. 7.42% in 1Q16. Terminating Shengmu acquisitionreduces M&A execution risk.The Group announced its decision to terminate the Shengmuacquisition. Meanwhile,Mengniu’s acquisition of Modern Dairy is in the final stage. We believe Yili’s decision would reducethe related M&A execution risk. The Group has signaled to focuson the downstream business by disposing all of its upstream business in FY16. In addition, the upstream business is turning less attractive as upstream dairy market remainsfragmented and imported milk powder continues to exert pressure on domestic raw milk price. The changing business models of industry leaders.Recent actionstaken by Yili and Mengniu show divergent management philosophies between the two. Mengniu is buildingan integrated model to enhance its product quality managementwhile Yili chooses to focus on brand buildingand downstream product development.In our view, Yili’s consumer-orientedstrategy would allow it to gain a strongerfoothold in the highly competitive consumer market in China. Reiterate BUYwith TP at RMB 21.3.Growth and profitability outlook for the Group in FY17remainsdecent based on its results in 1Q17.Termination of the Shengmu acquisition would benefit the Groupby reducing the M&A execution risk in near term.We reiterate BUY. Our current TP represents FY17E/18E P/E of 20.55x and 17.28x and FY17E/18E P/B of 3.72x and 3.38x. Risk factors: 1) Macroeconomicrisk; 2)Commodity pricerisk; 3)Foodsafety risk; 4)Investment risk
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名