金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
陈圣贤

瑞银证券

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工作经历: 证书编号:S1460516100001...>>

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最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
工商银行 银行和金融服务 2016-11-07 4.42 4.04 -- 4.57 3.39%
4.67 5.66%
详细
9M16 NPAT up 0.5% YoY; NIM stabilizingQ316 net profit after tax (NPAT) decreased 0.2% YoY/4% QoQ to Rmb72.6bn. 9M16NPAT was Rmb222.8bn, up 0.5% YoY and representing 85%/82% of UBS-S estimates/consensus. The results were better than we expected: 1) Q3 total loans rose 9% YoYand NIM dropped 3bps QoQ. Excluding the impact of value-added tax, NIM was flatQoQ, with management expecting NIM to stabilize in the next few quarters. 2) Feeincome rose 2% YoY. 3) Annualized credit cost in Q316 was 61bps, down 6bps QoQ. We are lifting our 2016/17E net profit 5%/7% to reflect a better asset-quality outlook. Sound asset qualityAs of Q316, the non-performing loan (NPL) balance increased 6% QoQ, with the NPLratio up 7bps to 16.2%. The coverage ratio fell 6.9ppts to 136%. 9M16 new loanswere Rmb980.7bn, among which new mortgage loans accounted for 54% and publicconstruction project loans accounted for 24.5%. Currently, the NPL ratio of mortgageloans is 0.45% and average loan-to-value is 50.5%. Management mentioned it is notworried about mortgage loan asset quality. Solid capital positionThe common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio at end-Q316 rose to 12.58%, up 4bps QoQ andthe second highest among the banks we cover. The tier 1 capital adequacy ratio andtotal capital adequacy ratio were 13.13% and 14.18%, respectively. We estimate thebank's CET1 ratio is sufficient to support its asset growth in the next 2-3 years withoutthe need for fundraising. Valuation: Raising price target 7% to Rmb5.8; maintain BuyThe bank is trading at 0.8x 2016E P/B. We derive our price target using a PB/ROEmethod and reach our target 2016E P/B of 1.09x on long-term sustainable ROE of11.0%, 10.5% cost of equity and long-term growth of 5%. We maintain our Buyrating.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名