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(相对现价)
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分众传媒 传播与文化 2018-03-07 14.82 18.20 57.58% 15.27 3.04%
15.27 3.04% -- 详细
Robust growth in 2017, bottom-line beat consensus and our number - Buy We reiterate Buy on Focus Media (FM) and raise our PT by 13.7% to RMB18.2. FM’s 2017 bottom-line beat our number by 10% and consensus by 3%, basedon its preliminary results. We have seen more traditional consumer andeducation companies investing more via FM’s ad channels. In addition, FM hasoperating leverage as its cost of rent for each screen/post frame is fixed. 2018 outlook: we expect robust growth to continue on further penetration We forecast 23% top-line and 25% bottom-line growth in 2018. We havenoticed internet companies focusing more on lower-tier cities as theypenetrate China. As a result, FM’s management said that its internet clients arerequesting screen/post frame penetration in lower-tier cities. We expect postframes to increase to 1.6m and LCD screens to increase to 300,000, up c.20%yoy. We raise our 2018/2019 earnings forecasts by 11% and 12% to reflect this. Internet, FMCG, education and Baijiu seeing high growthInternet/FMCG clients such as JD, Ali, Baidu and P&G contributed c. 50% ofFM’s ad revenue and their growth remains robust as they are paying moreattention to the inner building and cinema advertisement channels. Ourchannel checks also found strong incremental growth from K12 education andBaijiu companies. For example, mgmt said that Baijiu’s advertisement revenuewas only RMB2-3m in 2016, but it increased 10x to RMB300m in 2017 and islikely to double in 2018E. In education, K12 after-school tutoring companies inparticular are spending more on advertising (for both online and offline classes);these include TAL, EDU, DADA abc (哒哒英语) and Zhangmen (掌门一对一). Valuation and risksOur main valuation method is DCF (9.8% WACC, 3% TGR). FM trades at an excashPER of 24x (it had RMB3.8bn net cash as of 9M17) on our 2018E earningsvs. its 26% three-year earnings CAGR. We view risk-reward as attractive. FMpaid 80% of its earnings as dividend and mgmt guides for largely unchangedpayout for FY2017. Risks: 1) more theaters start their own advertisingbusinesses; 2) threats from other advertising modes; 3) a slowdown in China’sdownstream movie industry; 4) a slowdown in internet/FMCG sector growth.
中国国旅 社会服务业(旅游...) 2018-02-26 54.15 55.00 -- 58.50 8.03%
63.58 17.41% -- 详细
First six days traffic increased by 15.6% yoy during CNY2018. According to Sanyatour.com (Sanya's official tourism website), during theopening six days of the 2018 Chinese New Year (CNY, Feb15-21), traffic of Sanya(airport+train station) increased by 15.6% yoy to 0.78 million. In addition, total 8scenic spots attracts tourists traffic of 0.97 million (vs. 0.9 million in CNY2017),an increase of 7.9% yoy. Hotels in Sanya recorded occupancy rate of c.80% during CNY2018. According to Sanyatour.com, hotels in Sanya recorded an average occupancy rateof 79.7% during CNY2018, implying a yoy increase of c. 2 ppt (vs. 77.94% duringCNY 2017). To breakdown by areas: Hotels in Yalong Bay enjoyed occupancy rate of 81.1% in CNY2018 (vs. 80.94% in CNY2017). Hotels in Haitang Bay enjoyed occupancy rate of 84.2% in CNY2018 (vs.78.18% in CNY2017). Hotels in Sanya Bay enjoyed occupancy rate of 79.5% in CNY2018. Hotels in Dadonghai enjoyed occupancy rate of 78.1% in CNY2018. Hotels in Sanya Downtown enjoyed occupancy rate of 79.1% in CNY2018. Significant hotel occupancy increase in Haitang Bay benefits CITS' duty freestore Hotels in Haitang Bay recorded over 6 ppt yoy increase of occupancy rate duringCNY2018. We believe this is an clear indication of strong performance of dutyfree business. As we mentioned previously, visitors to Haitang Bay have very fewoptions for any night life, except to stay in the hotel resorts. As CITS' DFS is theonly shopping mall in Haitang Bay, we believe most overnight visitors will visitthe mall for shopping/entertainment in the evening.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2018-02-15 10.09 10.50 12.78% 11.22 11.20%
11.22 11.20%
详细
Sales/NP in line with DB/consensus for 2017 Yonghui announced its 2017 preliminary results after market closed today. NPgrew by 45.1% to RMB1.8bn, which is in line with both DBe/market consensus. NP margin improved from 2.6% in 2016 to 3.1%. Sales grew 18.61% to RMB58bn,also in line with DB forecast and market consensus. For 4Q17, sales grew by 24% while NP declined by 4% in 4Q17, which is 4%/8%lower than our expectation. This is mainly due to higher than expected opex ratiowhich we believe is due to more stores opened in this period. NP growth is mainly attributed to 1) GPM improvement resulting from enhancedsupply chain management and lower scrap rate for fresh products; 2) operatingleverage helped by its effective “partnership structure”. Among the regions,Beijing, East China and Sichuan regions outperformed in terms of store efficiencyand profitability; 3) interest income growth. In our view, sales growth was mainly driven by store opening expansion andSSSg. According to its website, it net opened 141 stores in 2017 and the totalno. of stores reached 597 as of end-2017. This is ahead of its 80-100 guidance. It also saw SSSg acceleration from 2% in 9M17 to 3% in 4Q17 (DBe), despitethe late CNY this year, based on our meeting with management before its resultsblack out period. Going forward, we believe Yonghui is able to keep the similar store expansionpace in 2018 as it has signed contract with another 170+ stores based on itswebsite. Apart from its traditional Red Label/Green Label supermarkets, it mayopen more Super Species and Yonghui Life stores with Tencent's partnership. To recap, Tencent announced it would acquire 15% stake of Super Species andYonghui Life on 16 Dec 2017. We believe the next catalyst for the company lies on the future businessdevelopment between Yonghui, its strategic partners, like Tencent (5% in YH) onthe integrating its investments in Hongqi ( YH invested 21% in the company) andCarrefour China (stake not disclosed). Management announced on 25 Jan that itmight incurred more cost and investment short term. We will try to speak with management after the full results were released in theend of Mar and review our model.
万达电影 休闲品和奢侈品 2018-02-08 -- 86.00 65.26% -- 0.00%
-- 0.00%
详细
Wanda Film announced that Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd (BABA.N) and CulturalInvestment Holdings Ltd (600715.SS) jointly invested a total of RMB7.8bn (for a12.77% stake ) in Wanda Film Holding. Details are as follows:A total stake of 12.77% was acquired at RMB51.96 per share. Alibaba will invest RMB4.68bn (for a 7.66% stake ) to become the secondlargestshareholder in Wanda Film. Cultural Investment will invest RMB3.12bn (for a 5.11% stake) to becomethe third-largest shareholder in Wanda Film. Wanda Group is still the controlling shareholder of Wanda Film, holding48.09% of total shares. Wanda Film was suspended from July 2017, at a closing price ofRMB52.04. Theaters of Culture Investment will join Wanda's theater chain. Wanda will delegate pre-movie advertisement of all the theaters toCulture Investment. Alibaba and Wanda will cooperate on movie distribution/investment/online ticketing platform/movie derivative products.
首旅酒店 社会服务业(旅游...) 2018-02-06 31.33 35.00 18.64% 34.40 9.80%
35.39 12.96%
详细
Core earnings growth range in line with DBe We reiterate our BUY rating on BTG and price target of RMB 35.0 unchanged. BTG announced its preliminary forecasting 2017 result yesterday. BTG guided thatits core earnings growth will be in the range of 289-323% yoy, which is in-linewith our estimates. (We estimate core earnings of RMB 613 million, yoy growthof 322%). Growth driven by hotel recovery and tourist site in Sanya Hotel: BTG guided that both occupancy rate and ADR have increased in2017. This is the key driver for earnings growth of hotel segment. Tourist site: BTG's Nanshan Park in Sanya saw significant visitors growthyoy, which has driven the profit growth. Integration of HomeInns makes the yoy comparison base different. To recap on comparison base difference: HomeInns was consolidated in April2016. As a result, from a comparison perspective, 2016 HomeInns only had 8months of operation while 2017 had full year operation. In addition, from April toSeptember, 2016, BTG only controlled 66.1% stake of HomeInns and BTG furtherincreased its stake to 100% after October 2016. DB's take, we have seen accelerated revpar growth and new hotel additionsWe have seen improving revpar growth for BTG. In our DB Access Chinaconference, management disclosed that blended RevPAR yoy growth acceleratedduring 4Q17 (RevPAR yoy growth: Dec > Nov >Oct). Management was confidentabout fulfilling their target of adding 400-450 hotels in 2017 (guided at thebeginning of 2017) and also guided that the company intends to add c.500 hotelsevery year over the next 4-5 years. The company guided that c.40% of additionswill be mid-scale hotels. They expect there will be c.1,000 mid-scale hotels by theend of 2019, which accounts for c.20% of total hotels. We will have more updateand review our model once the full year result has been announced.
锦江股份 社会服务业(旅游...) 2018-02-06 36.90 37.00 3.04% 38.26 3.69%
39.84 7.97%
详细
Robust RevPAR growth in 4Q17 driven by ADR increase Jinjiang-A reported its Dec-2017 monthly operational data. Domestic hotelsRevPAR growth in 4Q17 continued to be robust. Jinjiang and Plateno series bothenjoyed RevPAR growth of 6-8% yoy in 4Q17. Vienna's blended RevPAR growthseems flattish. In our view, this is mainly due to its fast expansion (c.40% of totalVienna hotels are newly-added, which are still in ramp-up period). To breakdown: RevPAR of Jinjiang series increased by 4.3%/5.7%/6.1% in Oct/Nov/Dec,mainly driven by ADR growth of 4.3%/2.7%/3.0%. RevPAR of Plateno series increased by 9.1%/7.9%/6.7% in Oct/Nov/Dec,mainly driven by ADR growth of 14.6%/12.9%/11.9%. RevPAR of Vienna series increased by -1.1%/2.0%/1.7% in Oct/Nov/Dec,mainly driven by ADR growth of 1.4%/1.2%/2.2%. Midscale hotels expansion driven by Vienna Jinjiang added 191 hotels in 4Q17 to reach a total hotel number of 6,694 in 2017-End (vs. 6,503 in 9M17). Jinjiang is upgrading its products aggressively to midto-upscale hotels, mainly through the Vienna brand (99 hotels added in 4Q17),just like China Lodging's strategy for more mid-to-upscale hotels and the Hantingupgrade. Management had guided previously that c.15% of hotels are midscale. In addition, 50-60% of the hotel portfolio pipelines are midscale. The Vienna brandled the midscale hotel market expansion with c.300 hotels added in 2017 to reach754 hotels as of 2017-End (vs. 464 hotels in 2016-End).
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-02-05 34.74 50.00 34.08% 41.45 19.31%
43.34 24.76%
详细
2017 net profit up 78%-88%, but trailing the expectation of ~100% growth… Sunway released 2017 result preview and expects net profit to reachRMB950mn to RMB1bn (up 79% YoY to 88% YoY). Despite being a stellarresult, this figure missed DBe/market expectation (of 100% growth) by ~10%. …due to order/ASP cuts from some clients, forex, finance costs and others Sunway attribute the miss to 1) order cuts and ASP erosion from some clients(we expect to Oppo, Vivo and tier-two Chinese OEMs) leading to slower toplinegrowth and margin decline in 4Q17, 2) the surge in forex loss (due to RMBappreciation against USD), and interest expense (to finance the Changzhouplants), and 3) RMB100mn+ YoY increase in opex (due to aggressive businessexpansion). Our prior Sunway earnings model had properly factored in theincrease in opex (the third factor), but we underestimated the negative impactsfrom first two factors. Positive long-term outlook unchanged We remain positive on Sunway, as the progress of winning multiple iPhonecomponent projects stays on track, including 1) Lightning connectors (as the3rd supplier in 2018), 2) VCM cases, and dual cam supporting frame (as the keysupplier), and 3) market share gains in EMI shielding cases. Also, it could likelygain share in Samsung’s wireless charging module in 2018 too. Valuation and investment risks We trim 2017/18/19 EPS forecasts by 10%/4%/4% to price in 4Q17 non-op lossand softer outlook for Chinese clients, and trim TP from RMB52 to RMB50. Ournew TP is still based on 33.5x 2018 PER, or 0.8x PEG (in line with regionalpeers). Risks: market share loss, slow spec upgrade, and iPhone weakness.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2018-02-02 767.00 790.00 9.15% 756.56 -1.36%
756.56 -1.36%
详细
Net profit up 58% yoy in 2017; in line with market expectation Kweichow Moutai issued a profit alert on 31Jan 2018and announced that itsnet profit increased 58% yoy to Rmb26.4bn in 2017. On quarterly basis, the 4Q17profit grew 51% yoy to Rmb6.4bn. The net profit growth was driven by: 1) "FeitianMoutai" sales volume, increased 34% yoy to 31,000tons; 2) 10% ASP increaseof Moutai liquor due to increasing sales portion of super premium products; and3) Lower SG&A/sales ratio due to improved operating efficiency and operatingleverage. The result was in line with its operation update announcement in Dec 2017ofa 58% yoy increase in profit before tax. It is also in line with our forecast atRmb26.2bn in 2017and market's consensus (Wind) at Rmb25.4bn. Long-term growth potential remains intact We think the strong net profit growth is not a surprise to the market. We maintainBuy on the stock for its strong branding and increasing channel control; yet inthe near-term, the potential over supply risk might assert pressure on its retailprice and market sentiments. We maintain our target price at Rmb790based onDCF model (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate). Downsiderisks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; government policy changes; foodsafety incidents.
沧州明珠 基础化工业 2018-01-30 11.26 15.20 152.91% 11.15 -0.98%
11.15 -0.98%
详细
CZMZ announced its 2017 preliminary result with headline numbers on 23 Jan2018. The company delivered RMB3.5bn revenue and RMB544mn NPAT in 2017,or 27.5% and 11.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. The preliminary NPATwas c.8% below DBe, or c.9% lower than A-share consensus due to subpar yieldof wet processed separator capacity expansion commenced in 3Q17, given stablebusiness performance of the company's other 2 business units - traditional plasticpipes and BOPA film. In the mid-term, we believe the wet processed separatorproduction lines with designed capacity of 105mn sqm should be able to ramp upand provide margin support for the company. CZMZ is scheduled to release thefinal 2017 results on 23 Mar 2018, and we look forward to having more detailsthen. Maintain Buy.
万华化学 基础化工业 2018-01-29 -- 47.50 30.35% -- 0.00%
-- 0.00%
详细
FY17net profit +c.200% YoY, beating expectations WHC released prelim FY17profit guidance with net profit growth of c.200% YoY.This beat DBe/ consensus estimates by 26% / 11%. The strong results were drivenby: 1) a stronger PU performance in both ASP and volume; 2) higher non-recurringprofit from government subsidies. Looking ahead, we expect strong 1Q18E on aYoY basis with: 1) a robust MDI spread due to tight supply-demand dynamics andhigh entry barriers; 2) strong performances from petrochemical and functionalmaterials. Therefore, we reiterate our Buy rating on the strong outlook ahead. Thebiggest risks would relate to potential restructuring / M&A with parentco assets.The stock is under suspension pending a restructuring announcement. Strong PU / Functional material outlook The robust MDI spread was driven by a domestic environmental scrutiny ledWHC polymeric MDI ASP rise of 92% yoy in 2017to RMB26,717/ton. Lookinginto 2018, we expect MDI average margin will continue to grow yoy due to alow base in 1H17; conversely, we expect the global supply demand balance willbe flat as the Sandra plant started operation in 3Q17to offset strong demandgrowth globally. For the polycarbonate (PC) segment, where China relies heavilyon imports, the outlook remains strong; WHC's new PC plant phase 1with 70ktpacapacity started on January 23, making WHC the no#2PC producer in China witha total capacity of 200ktpa. We continue to expect functional material segment(including PC) revenue to achieve a 39% CAGR in 2018-20E. Valuation and risks We base our RMB47.5target price on 8.0x EV/EBITDA by using a GordonGrowth Model, which is at a 15% discount to its historical average of 9.4x.Before suspension, the stock was at 6.1x forward EV/EBITDA, representing a 35%discount to the historical average. Key risks: 1) unexpected corporate actions,including restructuring and M&A; 2) unplanned maintenance turnarounds; 3)fluctuations in oil and chemical product prices; and 3) lower-than-expected GDPgrowth impacting demand growth.
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2018-01-29 9.73 9.30 10.06% 11.48 17.99%
11.48 17.99%
详细
FY17 preliminary results beat consensus and DB estimates. Baosteel announced its 2017 full year preliminary results after market close onJanuary 25. The company estimated 2017 full year NPAT to be from RMB19.1to 19.8bn. This beats both DB and Bloomberg consensus, achieving c. 135%FY17 DBe and 117% Bloomberg 2017 full year estimates. The preliminaryresults should be viewed positively by the market and potentially trigger streetanalysts to further upgrade their estimates into 2018. Supply-side structural reform and Baowu synergy drove profit growth. The supply-side structural reform in 2017 significantly improved the supply anddemand dynamics of steel sector in China. The synergy from Baowu mergerand Zhanjiang project also increased the company’s productions and profitswith strong cost advantage compared to industry peers. We believe that themerger synergies will likely continuously be realised and are likely to lead tostrong profitability of Baosteel in coming years. Positive supply and demand dynamics, maintain Buy. Based on the preliminary results, the implied 2017 ROAE is c.12-13%,increased by c. 6 percentage points from last year. We believe furtherimprovement into 2018 is still highly likely due to the impacts from ChinaSupply Side Reform and synergies from the Baowu merger. That makesBaosteel's current valuation at 1.1x 2018DBe BVPS not demanding in our view. Meanwhile, from recent Baosteel's communications with investors, we don'trule out the possibility of cash dividend pay-out increase resulting from thecompany's strong free cash flow yield. Overall, we deem Baosteel as the realalpha of Chinese steel sector. Buy reiterated.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-01-26 35.18 52.00 39.45% 41.18 17.06%
43.34 23.19%
详细
Initial setback, but remains the long-term winner of WPC trend We used to argue that Apple will change the design of wireless powercharging (WPC) module from “FPC-based" (in iPhone 8/X) to “copper coilbased"(in iPhone 9/XI), and Sunway could win 50% market share in the newdesign. Our latest supply chain check indicates the design change is takingplace, but Sunway might only take 10%-15% market share. However, we stillregard Sunway as a key beneficiary of the WPC trend. In 2018, it could gainhigher market share in Samsung WPC modules, and start initial shipments ofWPC TX (transmitter) modules to auto OEMs. Long term, it remains wellpositioned to become a primary supplier of iPhone WPC modules. Retain Buy. Update on WPC – some losses in iPhone but some gains in Samsung and auto We attribute Sunway’s miss (in not being the primary supplier for iPhone) tothe lack of experience in Apple’s WPC solution. The competitor, Luxshare, hasbeen supplying wireless charging pads for Apple Watch and other devicessince 2015. But, leveraging the expertise in coil-type solutions (NFC antenna)and WPC modules for Samsung Galaxy S/Note, we believe Sunway has a goodchance of growing its market share to 40%+ or 50% by 2019or 2020. On apositive note, we expect Sunway to grow its Samsung WPC market share from~15% in 2017to 25%-30% in 2018, after it recently set up a pilot runproduction line in Korea (to provide better on-the-ground service). In addition,Sunway might start to deliver WPC TX modules for European auto OEMs in2018(for their high-end vehicles). EMI shields, Lightning connectors, and VCM/dual cam frames remain on track The progress of multiple projects for iPhone remains unchanged. First, Sunwayhas already penetrated into lightning connectors, serving as the third supplier,and will start shipping in 2018. Second, Sunway expects a continually risingcontribution from camera-related mechanical parts (dual cam supportingframes and VCM shielding cases), given all three models could have dual camdesign in 2H18. Last, the company expects to win more EMI shielding caseslots, or gain higher shares in the current slots. Valuation and investment risks We trim 2017/18/19EPS forecasts by 2%/9%/10% (slower progress in iPhonewireless charging module business) and reduce TP from RMB60to RMB52.Our new TP is still based on 0.8x PEG (in line with regional peers), or 33.5x2018PER. Risks: market share loss, slow spec upgrade, and iPhone weakness.
通化东宝 医药生物 2018-01-23 24.60 26.80 -- 25.35 3.05%
26.87 9.23%
详细
Guiding for 30% net profit growth in 2018 Management guided for revenue growth of 20% and net profit growth of 30% in2018. On insulin glargine, production approval is expected in 4Q18while reachingRMB300-400m sales in 2019is likely. For insulin needles, the company is aimingat over 30% growth. Management continues to expect margin expansion, drivenby improving product mix and SG&A ratio. Insulin glargine to reach RMB300-400m sales in 2019 Management believes insulin glargine is likely to reach RMB300-400m sales in2019, and over RMB2bn sales in 2020. Market penetration of insulin glarginewill be driven by existing sales team. According to management, the coveragenetwork for 40R already reached 1000hospitals in 2017, on track to exceed2018target of 2000hospitals. Similarly for insulin glargine, coverage can reach1000hospitals by YE20, likely growing comparable with Ganli within 3-4yearsof launch. Though hospitals usually work with only 2suppliers for each drug,management expects maximum of 20-30% hospitals to be affected with regardsto promoting insulin glargine. Margins and other key updates Management expects continued margin expansion given higher gross marginsof third generation insulin products, though substantial volume growth maytake time. In addition, the company plans to utilize existing sales team forpromoting insulin glargine, leading to lower SG&A ratio going forward. Sales perrepresentative ranged widely at RMB3-10m in 2017, and the company would becautious in incremental hiring in 2018given expansion of the team in 2017.
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2018-01-19 8.95 9.30 10.06% 11.48 28.27%
11.48 28.27%
详细
Production capacities may go up in 2018 Baosteel expected the steel industry to release more production capacities in2018because the de-capacity target for 2018in China at 25mtpa is only halfof the target for 2017at 50mtpa. The company’s new EAF productions and thecompleted capacity replacement projects may drive its production capacities togo up in 2018. The main capacity replacement projects are Phase I (c.4mtpa) andPhase II (c.4mtpa) of Rizhao steel mill in Shandong Province. Phase II will be putinto operation in the second half of 2018according to the company. Mild price correction and continually resilient spread in 2018 In 2017, overcapacity cut and winter production shutdown policy affected steelcompanies’ production capacities and the commencement of new construction,which drove the steel price to largely increase. The rebar price particularlyexceeded RMB5,000/t in December 2017with gross profit margin at c.RMB1,500/t. Thus, price correction began at end-2017and may continue in 2018. Baosteelexpected the rebar price to drop by RMB800/t from the current price level. As theeffects of the government policies that were executed in 2017may extend into2018, the company expects a mild price correction and guided steel spread tostay relatively resilient with stable annual average selling price in 2018. Long steel profits may not have premium over flat steel profits in 2018 Long steel was overall more profitable than flat steel in 2017. However, thissituation is contradictory to the demand trends of long steel and flat steel. Marketdata showed a stable trend of flat steel demand from auto and home applianceindustries and a declining trend of long steel demand from infrastructure andproperty industries. Thus, the outlook of flat steel in 2018should be more positivethan long steel. Long steel profits may not have premium over flat steel profitsin 2018. Ramping up EAF may become a trend In 2017, IF furnace was fully replaced by EAF and BF. Although the governmenthas not promulgated policies to promote EAF, Baosteel started EAF productionduring 2017(2mtpa in 2018). The industry’s EAF capacities should remain thesame at 15mtpa in 2018. The company’s production output of EAF in 2018willbe higher than 2017because of the full-year operation in 2018.
科士达 电力设备行业 2018-01-16 17.15 21.00 54.41% 17.40 1.46%
17.40 1.46%
详细
High investors interest on promising industrial growth. Kstar is one of the largest uninterruptable power supply (UPS) brands in Chinaand is gaining QF investors' attention recently due to its (30% EPS CAGRin 2017-2020E) industrial growth on robust data center setup in China. Thecompany generates most of its UPS revenue from financial institutions (30-40%of UPS revenue), government agents, transportation infrastructure and IDC,which feature high entry barriers. Given its continued high-power UPS marketshare gain from international brands (Schneider), Kstar is confident of postingongoing market expansion from its current 35% level. Investors also like Kstar’ssolid balance sheet (net cash, positive FCF) and promising EV charging growth;reiterating Buy. Delivering 30% EPS CAGR in 2017-2020E on industrial growth (IDC UPS, EVcharging). Kstar expects a 30% EPS CAGR in 2017-2020E driven by strong high-power(20kVA+) on-line UPS growth on IDC proliferation in China and robust EVcharging demand. Propelled by its continued R&D investment in premium UPSand the support from the Chinese government, Kstar keeps gaining sharefrom international UPS brands (eg. Schneider, Eaton) in China. Managementanticipates its market share will expand from 15-16% now to 20-25% in two years,which supports a 20%+ UPS revenue growth in both 2018E and 2019E. Kstarhas also begun to ship its integrated UPS (combining self-made high-precisionair conditioner UPS battery into a cabinet) to IDC customers, which carries a 40%GPM, given its increased value-added. Kstar is confident of sustaining 35%+ GPM from UPS (despite rising raw materialcost) in the long-run due to continued product mix improvement (integrated UPS,large IDC). Promising inverter + booming EV demand. Kstar delivered a 100%+ YoY inverter revenue increase in 2017 due to its newpoverty reduction projects win from the government. Management indicatesthat the local government keeps building inverter stations in rural regions (eg. hills), which is viewed as a long-term electric infrastructure investment with 3-5years order visibility. Therefore, Kstar guides a 30-40% inverter revenue CAGR in2017-2020. Kstar also enjoys strong EV charging demand in China by leveragingits power efficient charging pile (featuring 96-98% conversion efficiency ratio vs. the industry average of 91-93%). The company’s EV charging revenue ramped to RMB150m in 2017 vs. RMB70m in 2016. Management is confident of posting100%+ YoY EV revenue growth in 2018 given the strong orders forecast fromkey customers. Kstar is also developing a vehicle carry charger with auto OEMs(Brilliance BMW, according to management), which will support its long-term EVgrowth. Valuation and risks. Our target price of RMB21 is still based on 30x one-year FW EPS, in line withthe Asian cloud computing peer average. Risks: slower EV/UPS demand andunfavorable FX.
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