金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
买入研报查询: 按股票 按研究员 按机构 高级查询 意见反馈
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/29 转到  

最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
九州通 医药生物 2017-10-13 21.30 27.30 27.99% 21.68 1.78% -- 21.68 1.78% -- 详细
RMB100bn sales target in 2019; 3key drivers Management is targeting RMB100bn sales in 2019, suggesting CAGR16-19E of18%. Major drivers include geographical expansion, increasing product offeringand deeper penetration of hospital channels. First, the company expanded itslogistics network coverage to 30provinces in China, noting 5distribution centersin construction and typically smaller base for newer regions. Second, productsinitiated over recent years continue to ramp up, while the company developsnew offerings in high-margin segments such as medical devices and nutritionsupplements. Lastly, as the company started its direct sales business in 2009,there is plenty of room for sales channel expansion. Going forward, managementreaffirms 2H17to outperform 1H17per historical trends, and that over RMB73bnsales can be achieved in FY17. Dynamics of DS and IDS under two invoice implementation Indirect sales (IDS) remains high at 44% of total sales as of now, down 1% from45% in 2016. However, management also expects IDS to stay at 35% by 2019,as a two invoice policy is unlikely to be strictly implemented in rural areas, drugstores and device/consumables. For 1H17, robust growth was attributed partiallyto JT's ability to take market share due to the following two changes under thetwo invoices: 1) JT was able to get more contracts directly from manufacturers,bypassing JT's previous upstream distributors as those distributors exited the IDSbusiness; 2) JT was able to assume more contracts directly from more drug stores,as JT's previous downstream distributors exited market. Approximately RMB10bn additional working capital required On liquidity, the working capital to revenue ratio currently stands at 6:1, and isexpected to go up with higher hospital concentration. As there is a RMB40bnrevenue gap between the 2019target and revenue in 2016, management budgetsRMB10bn in capital requirements and plans to tackle liquidity pressure by raisingRMB3.6bn equity, while additional debt can go up to RMB7.2bn. Cost of debt willlikely be around 4-5%.
中国国旅 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-10-13 36.69 40.00 9.23% 37.07 1.04% -- 37.07 1.04% -- 详细
Concessionaire rate of 35% is confirmed. This means that CITS has wonthe whole duty free business of Guangzhou Baiyun Intl Airport. (inboundwas won in May 2017earlier, see below) International traffic for Guangzhou Baiyun is expected to be c. 14millionvs. 25million for BCIA and 35million for Shanghai Pudong. Operating period will be from Feb 1, 2018to Jan 31, 2026. Monthly guaranteed sales starts to be RMB32.9m from Aug 1, 2018. Annual increase of monthly guaranteed sales is c.6% of the previousamount. As a result, total CITS's total 8years concession expenses are estimatedto be c. RMB 1.265billion. To recap, CITS won the bidding for inbound duty free of GuangzhouBaiyun Intl Airport with a 42% concessionaire rate at the beginning ofMay 2017. The outbound duty free confirmation makes CITS the exclusive duty-freeplayer at Guangzhou Intl Airport. We have seen CITS becoming more aggressive in gaining duty-freemarket share at major airports this year. So far, CITS has won the biddingat HK Intl Airport, Beijing Capital Intl Airport and Guangzhou Baiyun IntlAirport. The dutyfree period of Sunrise Duty Free Group (Shanghai), whichoperates at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, will expire at the endof 2018E. This leaves only Shanghai as the last piece of the pie of dutyfree for CITS to take, which could be a potential positive catalyst in thenear term, in our view.
科士达 电力设备行业 2017-10-02 17.75 18.60 8.84% 18.35 3.38% -- 18.35 3.38% -- 详细
Local UPS king is gaining its power over international peers in China We visited Kstar's SZ UPS factory. The company is upbeat on its UPS marketshare expansion in both China (especially on 20kVA+ UPS) and overseas,thanks to its high precision and cost/performance products. We feelcomfortable with its 20%+ online UPS sales CAGR in 2017-2020E and 38-40%GPM thanks to favorable product mix change (integrated/higher power UPS).We also believe international UPS brands (Riello, Schneider, Emerson) willaccelerate their outsourcing to qualified ODMs like Voltronic, given risingcompetition from local kings. Voltronic and Kstar are our top picks in GreaterChina UPS fields; we reiterate our Buy ratings on both names. Upbeat 2017outlook driven by online UPS/inverter strength Kstar is upbeat on its 2017outlook and targets a 30%+ earnings CAGR in2017-2019E driven by online UPS and inverter strength. Propelled by continuedinverter order wins for the Chinese government’s poverty reduction projects inrural areas, Kstar expects a 100% YoY inverter revenue increase this year, withGPM ramping to 35-36% vs. 30-33% before. For UPS, Kstar expects continuedmarket share expansion in 20kVA+ orders thanks to its R&D strength andpromotion from the Chinese government. Kstar is also offering an integratedUPS solution (battery + UPS + high-precision air conditioner) to China’s IDC ,helping drive potential 20%+ online UPS revenue CAGR in the next three years. Kstar’s ongoing UPS gain implies rising pressure on international competitors Kstar expects its Chinese UPS market share to ramp up to 20-22% in twoyears’ time, vs. 15-16% currently. Management attributes the faster expansionto its take-off in 20kVA+ UPS. By leveraging its good relationship with localgovernment (in high-speed railway/governmental projects) and highcost/performance products (10-15% lower price vs. international competitors),Kstar continues to gain market share from international peers (e.g. Schneider,Emerson) in China. Besides the domestic market, Kstar is promoting its ownbrandproducts in emerging countries (e.g. South East Asia) by setting up 10branches overseas. The company believes its good customization capabilitiesin small-power UPS manufacturing will help it outperform international brandsin emerging countries (lack of power standard) going forward. Valuation and risks We raise our 2017EPS estimate by 12% to factor in stronger UPS/inverterdemand. We lift our TP to RMB18.6from RMB16.4as we roll over to one yearFW EPS vs. 2017E EPS before (still based on 30x 2017E P/E, or 1.0x PEG).Risks: weaker China UPS demand, price competition, and unfavorable FX.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-10-02 28.00 28.00 -- 28.85 3.04% -- 28.85 3.04% -- 详细
Industry recovery and market share gains through high-end products.We expect the liquid milk industry to grow by 6% in 3Q17(vs. 7% in 1H17)and Yili's market share in liquid milk to increase from 33.6% in June to34% in September. High-end products, including UHT yoghurt, high-endyoghurt and pro biotic drinks, are the key sales drivers. Meanwhile, weexpect the lower tier region and special channel to deliver higher salesgrowth helped by Yili's increasing penetrations. Our recent channel check indicates that its sales growth remainsstrong in 3Q. The Shanghai distributor indicated that its room temperateproducts grew at 8% in both 1H17and 3Q; the Shenzhen distributorindicated its sales grew at higher than 10% YTD. Meanwhile, we find thatMengniu and Yili are revising up ex-factory price and retail price from July,implying that industry competition continues to ease down. 90bps yoy expansion of recurring EBIT margin. Our recent channelcheck indicates the price competition is stabilizing. We believe themore balanced supply/demand in upstream should also lead to a stablecompetition environment. Accordingly, we forecast a yoy flattish sellingexpense/sales ratio in 3Q17. The yoy EBIT margin expansion is mainlyhelped by lower G&A/sales from a high base in 3Q16, while partly offsetby lower gross margin on rising packaging cost and milk powder price. Sales growth to accelerate in 2017-19 Liquid milk growth is recovering from low single digits in 2016to high single digitsin 2017. Firstly, we think this is mainly helped by more balanced supply from2017, and we expect raw milk cycle to turn from over-supply in 2014-16to undersupplyin 2018-19. Secondly, the recovery is also helped by trading up demandfrom low-end milk beverage to pure milk and yoghurt. Thirdly, this is helped byYili's increasing penetration in lower tier regions and special channels. We believethese drivers are sustainable. We forecast Yili's sales CAGR to improve from 8%in 2014-16to 11% in 2017-18E.
华策影视 传播与文化 2017-10-02 11.10 14.80 35.90% 11.53 3.87% -- 11.53 3.87% -- 详细
What's new? Pay limit for cast salaries has been launched. On September 22, State Alliance of Radio, Film and Television (SARFT) issued aproposal to limit the pay of actor/actress in Chinese online/TV drama. Cast salaries should be no more than 40% of the total production costsfor online/TV drama series. In addition, the salary of the leading actor/actress cannot exceed 70% ofthe total cast salaries. If cast salaries exceed 40% of total costs, the production company mustlodge an explanation with their association.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-09-27 38.91 44.40 8.88% 40.80 4.86% -- 40.80 4.86% -- 详细
Event 1- Clarification of potential investment in Luoyang LYC and Tianjin FAW On 19Sep 2017, Gree confirmed it had teamed up with Luoyang LocalGovernment and IIT Committee of Henan province, to participate in the “Luoyangintelligent equipment manufacturing production base project”, reported by thepress on 15Sep 2017. Total investment of this project is around RMB15bnincluding a site area of 5000mu, and the estimated production value will reachRMB30bn per annum after completion. Gree will also participate in the stateownedenterprise Reform of LYC Bearing; the investment amount from Gree hasyet to be defined. The company will make a further announcement if necessary. Meanwhile, Gree denied it intended to acquire Tianjin FAW Xiali as Souhu.comreported on 16Sep 2017. Gree clarified that it has never discussed the acquisitionof Xiali with Tianjin FAW. Event 2- Acquisition of 5% stake in Shanghai Highly Group Gree resumed trading on 19Sep and announced on 20Sep 2017that it hadsuccessfully bid for 43m shares of Shanghai Highly Group (600619.SS, NR)between 29Aug 2017and 19Sep 2017from its controlling shareholder, ShanghaiElectric Group (601727.SS, NR). Following the purchase, Gree owns a 5% stakein Shanghai Highly. Rationale for the purchase – to be an international company with well-rounded supply chain capability. Through this acquisition, Gree targets to expand itssupply chain base and consolidate quality capacity and resources in the market.It will also leverage on its international vision as a Shanghai company, on humanresources, information and innovation.It also mentioned the possibility of increasing its stake in Shanghai Highly in thenext 12months, although it does not intend to be the controlling shareholder ofHighly at the moment. It stated that: 1) it will not sell the purchased shares in thenext 12months; 2) it will continue to participate in the bidding for Highly’s sharesin the next 12months should Highly’s controlling shareholder, Shanghai Electric,plan to sell its stake in Highly. Deutsche Bank view – maintaining Buy We believe that business diversification remains as one of the key strategies forGree, and is in line with what it mentioned in its 2016annual report. Automationin the manufacturing process is one of the focuses for all upstream players. In1H17, Gree's manufacturing equipment business sales grew by 270%. As theinvestment of RMB15bn will be contributed by various partners, we believe Gree'sinvestment in Luoyang LYC can be funded from internal resources and will notaffect Gree's cashflow or dividend payout. To recap, as of end-2016, Gree hasnet cash of RMB84bn including net working capital. In 2016, its dividend payoutratio was 59%. Gree bought its interest in Highly at a price of RMB11.6-15.5/share (withinHighly's trading range during the period), which indicates Gree’s total investmentinto Highly is around RMB556-578m. The consideration implies a 2016PE of63-66x, EV/EBITDA of 11~12x, PB of 2.8-2.9x. The impact on the P&L should bevery minimal, in our view. The reason for this acquisition is mainly to verticallyintegrate its supply chain, as explained by Gree. Shanghai Highly is the leadingcompressor manufacturer in China with a 31.4% share of non-self-supportingcompressors in 1H17, according to Highly's interim report. As the largest clientfor Highly, Gree purchased 6m sets of compressors from Highly (total productionof 25m sets) in 2016. Other air conditioners, e.g., Midea and Haier, are all clientsof Highly. Gree also owns a compressor manufacturer, i.e., Zhuhai Landa, asubsidiary of Gree. We believe the investment in Highly will further secure Gree’scompressor supply and help it to gain market share and strengthen its dominantposition in the air-conditioner market, particularly in a high demand market.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-09-27 31.71 34.50 -- 36.88 16.30% -- 36.88 16.30% -- 详细
RMB10bn investment for the next four years。 Hikvision’s board of directors has decided to invest RMB10bn capex to build 4R&D centers and 2industrial bases in five cities in the next four years. Wemaintain BUY rating on Hikvision.。 Building new R&D centers and production bases。 The four R&D centers will cost RMB6.5bn and be deployed in the cities ofXi’an, Wuhan, Chengdu and Hangzhou. The construction period for eachproject will take ~ 40months and be completed during 2H21-1H22. Combinedwith Hangzhou R&D center, its R&D network will cover the mid-westernprovinces in China and utilize the local science and education talents to furtherstrengthen its R&D team. The two production bases will cost RMB4bn and bedeployed in Chongqing and Wuhan. The completion of production bases willhelp Hikvision leverage local labor resources and increase capacity.。 Focus on the R&D talents and increasing capacity。 We expect these R&D centers to strengthen its core competence in videosurveillance and develop the innovation businesses (such as industryautomation and automotive applications) with new applications. The newproduction bases will increase capacity and vertical integration capability asthe company grows in size. We expect upside to our current capex forecastbut should be manageable given Hikvision’s 2017E profits of RMB9.5bn andnet cash position of RMB9.2bn at the end of 2Q17.。 Valuation and risks。 We believe the investment plan is in sync’s management’s strategy in securingits leadership in the video surveillance sector while diversifying into newgrowth segments. Our TP of RMB34.5is based on 25x 2018E EPS, which issupported by 34%/36% ROE and 28%/33% earnings growth in 2017/2018,respectively. Risks: market share loss and weak demand.。
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-09-26 500.31 550.00 -- 566.66 13.26% -- 566.66 13.26% -- 详细
Retail price declined from Rmb1550/bottle in July to Rmb1330-1350in the past two weeks in both Shenzhen and Shanghai. This is likelymainly due to increasing supply from Moutai from August 15andimplementation of 30% sales on the e-commerce platform policy. Theretail price of other customized Moutai which the company didn't enforcea price control kept rising. For example, the 350ml Moutai's retail priceincreased from Rmb1000/bottle in January to Rmb2000/bottle currently.Sales volume: The Shanghai distributor indicated that it has used up itsfull year procurement quota in 2017, and is currently beginning to usethe 1Q18quota. This implies that the distributors' actual sales volumein first nine month has achieved its full year target. To recap, Mr. WangChonglin, director of Moutai group sales company, said that the companywould sell 5600tons Feitian Moutai and 600tons of customized Moutaibetween 8/15to 9/30.。 Channel stockings: The Shanghai distributor believed there are somedemands from channel restockings, especially for private owneddistributors and wholesalers. However the Shenzhen distributor indicateda different current purchase behavior - with consumers typically buyingMoutai in cases, while normally buying Moutai in bottles - we think thisalso implies consumers are stocking up.。 Impacts from "restricting drinking liquor" policy from some localgovernments announced recently. Both Shenzhen and Shanghaidistributors feel the impact is limited, because they think 1) this is nota new regulation given there is already a similar regulation from 2012;2) the public sector's purchase portion is already low, which is less than30% according to the Shanghai distributor.。 Impacts from Moutai Cloud E-commerce platform (Moutai Yunshang).。 The distributors indicate that the real impacts will depend on how strictMoutai will monitor the sales volume on the platform. Though distributorsare required to put 30% of volume on the platform to sell at Rmb1299。
光线传媒 传播与文化 2017-09-25 10.00 13.00 37.13% 11.05 10.50% -- 11.05 10.50% -- 详细
DB’s view – Downstream channel expansion continues As per the company announcement, the current valuation of Maoyan is atRMB13.67n. Note that previous Valuation of Maoyan stood at RMB8.3bn. As Enlight Media has strong presence in upstream movie production anddistribution; and Maoyan/Weying is the leading online ticketing platform.The investment in Maoyan offers Enlight Media direct channel access tomovie viewers. In addition, Weying focuses not only movie ticketing platform, but alsoticketing business for show/exhibition/sports events. As of 2016, itsticketing business covered a total of over 2,000theater/exhibition hall/stadium. However, we believe that the profitability of online ticketing businessis still low. Note that Maoyan generated RMB1bn revenue and net lossof RMB109m in 2016, while its bottomline turns positive in 5M17bydelivering revenue of RMB1bn and net profit of RMB73m (implies netmargin of 7%) per company disclosure. As the listco Enlight Media only holds 20% stake in Maoyan, we believethe near-term financial impact is still minimum.
分众传媒 传播与文化 2017-09-21 9.88 14.00 27.50% 11.42 15.59% -- 11.42 15.59% -- 详细
Growth correlated to the new economy We initiate coverage of Focus Media with a Buy rating and a target price ofRMB14, implying 35% upside potential. Focus Media has recently been includedin the MSCI-A and is a leading player in China’s ad industry with dominantmarket share in two channels of advertising:(1) inner building media (90%), and(2) cinema screens (pre-movie advertising). Compared to traditional channels ofadvertising, such as TV etc, these two channels achieve greater impact, given theyare in confined areas holding the captive attention of viewers. These channelsare favored by leading internet/FMCF clients, such as JD, Ali, Baidu, and P&Getc, which contribute approximately 50% of FM’s revenue. We view FM as wellpositionedto ride the growth of China’s new economy. We project a profit CAGRof 20% against peers' 10-15%. Inner building media, the only growing traditional advertisement channel While the growth of other traditional advertisement channels, such as TV/radio/newspapers, has dropped in the past few years, we have seen building mediagrowth remain robust. This is because, amid the intensifying competition fromgrowing internet advertising, building media is more effective in delivering themessage to targeted groups of consumers and raising overall brand awareness.Focus Media dominates the building media market, with market share of morethan 90%. We expect inner building segment revenue to generate a CAGR of16% in 2017-19E, driven by c.12% screen expansion and a 4% increase in ASP.We believe Focus Media's screens (both LCD and poster frame) will continue topenetrate into tier 2-3cities and the company can increase the utilization rate ofits screens. Cinema media, riding on China's movie screen growth Focus Media has 60% market share in theater advertisements (ads before themovie) in China. We have noticed robust growth in this segment in the past fewyears (65%/42%/51% yoy revenue growth in 2014-2016), thanks to significantgrowth in China's movie screens, which have doubled to more than 40,000+from only 20,000in 2014. As this segment is correlated with the movie screenexpansion, we estimate that cinema media revenue CAGR to be 13% in 2017-19E,in line with our estimate of overall movie screen growth.Revised by adding note on pg22that FocusMedia raised RMB 4.86bn in 2016tocomplete 100% of the backdoor listing Valuation and risks Our primary valuation method is based on DCF (9.8% WACC and 3% TGR). FocusMedia is currently trading at an ex-cash PER of 18x (the company has a net cashof RMB7.54bn as of 1H17) on our 2018E earnings estimate vs. its 20% three-yearearnings CAGR. We believe the risk-reward profile seems attractive. Key downsiderisks: 1) more theaters start their own advertisement businesses; 2) threats fromother advertising modes; 3) a slowdown in the China movie downstream industry;and 4) slowdown in the internet/FMCG sector growth.
分众传媒 传播与文化 2017-09-21 9.88 14.00 27.50% 11.42 15.59% -- 11.42 15.59% -- 详细
Growth correlated to the new economy We initiate coverage of Focus Media with a Buy rating and a target price ofRMB14, implying 35% upside potential. Focus Media has recently been includedin the MSCI-A and is a leading player in China’s ad industry with dominantmarket share in two channels of advertising: (1) inner building media (90%), and (2) cinema screens (pre-movie advertising). Compared to traditional channels ofadvertising, such as TV etc, these two channels achieve greater impact, given theyare in confined areas holding the captive attention of viewers. These channelsare favored by leading internet/FMCF clients, such as JD, Ali, Baidu, and P&Getc, which contribute approximately 50% of FM’s revenue. We view FM as wellpositionedto ride the growth of China’s new economy. We project a profit CAGRof 20% against peers' 10-15%. Inner building media, the only growing traditional advertisement channel While the growth of other traditional advertisement channels, such as TV/radio/newspapers, has dropped in the past few years, we have seen building mediagrowth remain robust. This is because, amid the intensifying competition fromgrowing internet advertising, building media is more effective in delivering themessage to targeted groups of consumers and raising overall brand awareness.Focus Media dominates the building media market, with market share of morethan 90%. We expect inner building segment revenue to generate a CAGR of16% in 2017-19E, driven by c.12% screen expansion and a 4% increase in ASP.We believe Focus Media's screens (both LCD and poster frame) will continue topenetrate into tier 2-3cities and the company can increase the utilization rate ofits screens. Cinema media, riding on China's movie screen growth Focus Media has 60% market share in theater advertisements (ads before themovie) in China. We have noticed robust growth in this segment in the past fewyears (65%/42%/51% yoy revenue growth in 2014-2016), thanks to significantgrowth in China's movie screens, which have doubled to more than 40,000+from only 20,000in 2014. As this segment is correlated with the movie screenexpansion, we estimate that cinema media revenue CAGR to be 13% in 2017-19E,in line with our estimate of overall movie screen growth. Valuation and risks Our primary valuation method is based on DCF (9.8% WACC and 3% TGR). FocusMedia is currently trading at an ex-cash PER of 18x (the company has a net cashof RMB7.54bn as of 1H17) on our 2018E earnings estimate vs. its 20% three-yearearnings CAGR. We believe the risk-reward profile seems attractive. Key downsiderisks: 1) more theaters start their own advertisement businesses; 2) threats fromother advertising modes; 3) a slowdown in the China movie downstream industry; and 4) slowdown in the internet/FMCG sector growth.
未署名
中航光电 电子元器件行业 2017-09-14 34.46 43.00 13.31% 39.75 15.35%
39.75 15.35% -- 详细
Order momentum picking up; Buy on multi-year earnings upcycle ahead。 We visited Jonhon Optronic's Luoyang headquarters last week and came backwith positive takeaways. Despite lagging revenue conversion in 3Q, the strongpick-up in new orders, along with new capacity expansion, should accelerateearnings growth to 26% yoy in 2H17(vs. 11% in 1H17) and 30%+ starting2018. With similar drivers ahead, the 2013-15earnings upcycle - when the stockoutperformed its benchmark (SZCOMP) by 100% on strong earnings growth -looks likely to be repeated. We raise our target price by 23% to Rmb43andmaintain Buy.。 Strong new order pipeline。 Management guided for a back-end loaded 2017at the beginning of this year andexpects growth for defence and NEV to speed up in 2H. Since the beginning of3Q, the company has indeed been seeing a strong new order pipeline from itscustomers for both segments though the actual signing of contracts may come abit later than expected due to military reform (hence organizational reshuffle) andstricter subsidy scheme (hence reevaluation of subsidy eligibility required). Givencapacity constraints (for NEV) and defense customers' delivery schedules, webelieve deliveries could be very skewed towards 4Q17with revenue conversionof some orders potentially delayed to 1H18.。
国投电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-09-05 7.38 8.50 12.29% 7.49 1.49%
7.61 3.12% -- 详细
Better earnings stability than a thermal peer, more upside than hydro peers Positive tariff outlook, better capex discipline, improving free cash flow SDIC enjoys higher earnings visibility, as well as stability, than thermal power peers, due to its 57% capacity exposure to hydropower. Over 2016-1H17, almost all the earnings came from the hydro segments. Meanwhile, SDIC’s thermal business can also benefit from accelerating supply-side reform and year-end tariff hikes. We expect SDIC to turn FCF positive starting in 2018, thanks to earnings recovery and better capex discipline, indicating potential upside to our assumed 35% payout ratio and dividend yield of 3%. Relative to Yangtze Power, SDIC is an overlooked A-share hydro name, with an attractive valuation and similarly strong hydro capacity pipeline. Reiterating Buy. Positive tariff outlook, better capex discipline, improving free cash flow SDIC’s 1H17 results were slightly below expectation, with a 13/37% yoy decline in reported/recurring net profit, but still much better than thermal peers, which are near breakeven. Thermal tariff recovered by 7.5% yoy, due to a lower DPS discount. Hydro tariff dropped 6% yoy in 1H17 but the declining trend slowed in the second quarter. Management expects the discount to narrow going forward, with less competition from peers. Furthermore, its inter-provincial hydro power sales tariff should benefit from the thermal tariff hike in July and potentially another round at year-end. In response to supply-side reform, SDIC is delaying three coal-fired generation units (total 3GW) and plans no other thermal capacity additions over 2017-19E. We expect its free cash flow to reach c.Rmb8.0bn in 2018/19E, supporting a stable dividend outlook. Earnings revisions We revise down our 2017/18/19E net profit forecasts by 14%/4%/1% to reflect higher fuel cost, delay in thermal projects, higher thermal tariff due to a lower DPS discount and July tariff hike, and lower hydro tariff due to higher discount. Valuation and risks Our TP is based on DCF with WACC of 7.0% and zero TGR. SDIC is trading at 12x 2018E P/E and 1.5x P/B, well below Yangtze’s 17x P/E and 2.3x P/B. Risks: lower-than-expected thermal tariff hike, weaker water flow, higher coal prices.
长江电力 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2017-09-04 14.97 17.50 11.96% 15.44 3.14%
15.66 4.61% -- 详细
Yangtze reported in-line 1H17 results with net profit up 7% yoy. Yangtze will enjoya higher tariff for its inter-provincial power sales in 2H17 thanks to a thermal tariffhike in July. Furthermore, it may also benefit from another round of thermal tariffhikes at year end. The company also has further room for financial cost savingsas the mgmt aim to lower their debt/asset ratio to 30%. We maintain Buy onYangtze due to its unique dividend commitment supported by highly predictablecash flows which generate a an attractive 4.3% 2017E yield. 1H17 results in line. Yangtze's net profit was up 7% yoy to Rmb8.1bn in 1H17, in line with our forecast. The growth is mainly driven by cost savings (SG&A -18% yoy; financial cost -13%yoy) and investment gains (+82% yoy), partially offset by weaker net output (-4%yoy). Generation declined in Three gorges (-11%) and Gezhouba (-4%) due to weakwater flows and slightly increased in Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba (+4%). Free cashflow reached Rmb10bn in 1H17. Key takeaways from conference call. Tariff: Mgmt expect a higher tariff in second half for their inter-provincial powersold by Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba to Shanghai and Guangdong thanks to the thermaltariff hike on 1 July. There is further room for tariff hikes if the fuel cost passthroughfor thermal plants is executed at year end. Power output: Mgmt expect full-year output to reach 191-200 bn kwh. Thegeneration was impacted by a typhoon in July-Aug but has started to recover inSept. Market-based volume is expected to rise over the next few years. Capital structure and financial cost: Mgmt plan to use cash flow for debtrepayment as they do not have major M&A plans currently. Mgmt expect thedebt to asset ratio to decrease from the current 59% to 30%, after which Yangtzemay consider M&A and raise the debt to asset ratio to 60% again. Mgmt arecomfortable with a debt ratio of 42-55% . In 1H17, the average interest rate was4.2% and mgmt expect it to increase mildly to 4.35% in 2H17. Capex: Yangtze does not have a major M&A target for now but expects to acquiresome hydro/power retail assets related to its core business. Mgmt are also lookingfor potential targets overseas and the company has gained experience via a 288MW wind power acquisition in Germany. Over 2018-19, the company hasbudgeted for Rmb10bn capex each year. Other key takeaways: Yangtze will continue to use investment income to smooththe earnings volatility driven by water flows fluctuations.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-09-04 38.67 44.40 8.88% 39.63 2.48%
40.80 5.51% -- 详细
Valuation remains inexpensive at 11/11x 17/18PE and 5% yield Gree’s 2Q17NP beat DB/market estimates by 35%/17% due to sales growthacceleration and operating leverage. We believe channel inventory remains at ahealthy level at the beginning of the cold year (end of July). Thus, we raised oursales forecasts for 2017-2019by 7-9%. Meanwhile, we lower our 2017GPMforecast by 1.6ppt to reflect raw material price hike pressure in 2H17. Although2018will be a tough year given high base in 2017due to property boom andrestocking, we believe product upgrades and relatively inexpensive valuationwith 5% yield warrants a Buy recommendation. 2H17outlook – channel inventory remains healthy but more pressure on GPM For 2H17, we expect Gree to report a 19% rise in sales with 10% increase involume as we believe the current channel inventory level remains healthy(~21m units). Meanwhile, we expect GPM to decline 1.3ppt to 31.4% from32.7% in 1H17due to continuous raw material price increase. However, opexratio might remain low as demand remains strong. We expect EBITM of 15%in 2H17(15.5% in 1H17). 2Q17NP beat due to sales growth acceleration and operating leverage 2Q17saw NP up 68% on sales up by 60% vs 1Q sales/NP up by 19%/27%,mainly thanks to restocking cycle and strong demand from retail end. GPMshrank 8ppt to 30.2% affected by raw materials cost hike, while opex ratiocontracted 12.6% to 14.1%. Thus, the company still enjoys an operatingleverage with EBIT margin improving 7.6ppt to 16%. Raising target price to RMB44.4from RMB38.87; risks We use DCF to value the company with a new target price of RMB44.4(oldRMB38.87), as we raise our FY17-FY19NP forecast by 7-9%. Our target priceimplies 13x/12x FY17/18PE, which is at a premium to its historical valuationpoint during de-stocking of channel inventory, and dividend yield at 4.6% forFY17E. Downside risks include competition, subsidy policy, and M&A.
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/29 转到  
*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名