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众信旅游 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-08-23 12.20 15.00 24.28% 12.18 -0.16% -- 12.18 -0.16% -- 详细
1H17top line up by 13%; bottom line up by 27% Utour Travel announced its 1H17interim report today. The company reported thattop line increased by 13% yoy to RMB5.05bn in 1H17from RMB4.46bn in 1H16and core net profit increased by 27% yoy to RMB94m in 1H17from RMB74m.We believe the margin increase continues in 2017due to better products mixchange. We reiterate Buy given the company's more diversified products andmore attractive valuation than previously. Our new target price of RMB15(fromRMB17) reflects a cut in our 2017wholesale business growth forecast. Top line up 13% yoy, driven mainly by outbound wholesale business Wholesale outbound - revenue rose 13% to RMB3.88bn in 1H17fromRMB3.43bn in 1H16. This was the main driver of total top-line growth,however, wholesale business growth slows down compared to 27% yoygrowth in 2016. We believe that this is mainly due to the slowdown ofoutbound travel in China (number of outbound tourists increased only by5% to 62million in 1H17from 56million in 1H16) Retail outbound - By end-1H17, the company has 108offline stores.Revenues from the retail sales business rose 7% to RMB769m in 1H17from RMB720m in 1H16. Recall that the company has planned to expandits offline stores to 200in the next two to three years. We believe marginswill continue to increase in 2017under the company’s strategy of revenuemix change.
均胜电子 基础化工业 2017-08-23 31.11 35.20 12.14% 31.90 2.54% -- 31.90 2.54% -- 详细
Stronger revenue offset weaker margins 1H17revenue expanded 1.2x YoY to RMB13.1bn, driven by RMB8.5bncontribution from full-period KSS/PCC consolidation (65% of revenue) but partlyoffset by 7.3% YoY drop in HMI segment due to sales decline at one major OEMcustomer. Meanwhile, gross profit grew 93.3% YoY to RMB2.3bn in 1H17with2.5ppt YoY gross margin deterioration. The margin contraction was mainly due to1.8ppt YoY margin dip from HMI and 0.6ppt drop from KSS. Together with 1.1xYoY jump in SG&A expenses and 53.0% YoY increase in finance cost, but partiallyoffset by RMB320.3m one-off disposal gain (before-tax) of industrial automationbusiness, 1H17net profit increased by 1.5x YoY to RMB615.6m (62% of FY17DBeand 53% of consensus). Excluding after-tax disposal gain of RMB220m, 1H17core net profit grew 61.5% YoY to RMB395.6m, with 1.1ppt deterioration in corenet margin. On a quarterly basis, 2Q17revenue was flattish QoQ (+73.0% YoY). Gross margindeteriorated 1.1ppt QoQ (2.3ppt YoY) to 17.4%. 2Q17net profit increased by96.1% QoQ (2.3x YoY) to RMB407.7m. Deutsche Bank view - consolidation of KSS on track; maintaining Buy With the sequential recovery in gross margin of auto safety segment (1H1717.5%vs. 2H1614.7%), Joyson is on track to consolidate KSS albeit at a slower-thanexpectedpace. The segment recorded USD1.3bn new contract wins in 1H17,including USD130m for active safety. Maintain Buy on our optimistic view on thegrowth potential of KSS in active safety and ADAS, a market in China that weestimate could grow to c.USD11bn by 2020. We raise our FY17-19E revenue by 1.4-8.9% to reflect stronger revenue growthand FY17E net profit by 13.8% to include the one-off gain from disposal ofindustrial automation business. Our FY18-19E net profit estimates are revisedup by only 0.8-3.4% to factor in lower margins. We expect Joyson to deliver27.7% FY16-19revenue CAGR, driven mainly by KSS acquisition. Our TP is setat 27x FY18E P/E (unchanged), 25% below its mid-cycle P/E of 36x. This isjustified, in our view, since we expect the company to deliver a 36% EPS CAGRin FY16-19. Key downside risks include 1) weaker-than-expected auto sales; 2)failure to consolidate KSS/TS or improve profitability; 3) future capital raising tofund potential acquisitions.
宋城演艺 传播与文化 2017-08-21 19.58 33.00 72.77% 19.79 1.07% -- 19.79 1.07% -- 详细
Conference call takeaway with the management Online show business - Management believes that entry barrier for livebroadcasting business will be higher after more tightening regulationfrom the government in 1H17. As the market leader, they are confidenton Six rooms' sustainable growth in the long term. Offline show business - Management confirms the strategy of adding twoself-owned projects and one revenue share model every year for the next3-4years. The company is in the process of establishing the second performanceshow theater for Lijiang and Sanya. The second theater is aimed forreleasing capacity issue during the peak season. Management also updated on the upcoming offline projects' operationdate: Yangshuo in 1H18, Yichun in 2H17(Oct 2017), Xi'an in End-2018or Early 2019, Shanghai in Early 2019, Zhangjiajie in 1H19, Foshan andAustralia (Gold Coast) in 2020.
春秋航空 航空运输行业 2017-08-21 31.98 41.20 25.49% 33.44 4.57% -- 33.44 4.57% -- 详细
Yield bottomed out in 2Q17; 25% 1H17profit decline due to increase in cost Spring reported 1H17gross revenue growth of 28.1% YoY to RMB5.1bn on theback of 29.1% passenger traffic (RPK) growth, while passenger yield remainflattish. However, operating expenses increased 42.4% YoY mainly due to 1)higher fuel cost amid rising fuel price; 2) increasing marketing and advertisingexpenses; and 3) higher staff wages, according to the company. Together with1) RMB1.1m investment income (vs. investment loss in 1H16) and 2)RMB655.1m non-operating income (+8.6% YoY) mainly from route subsidies,the airline’s 1H17net profit declined by 25.2% YoY to RMB554.0m. On a quarterly basis, 2Q17gross revenue grew 33.8% YoY to RMB2.5bn on32.0% YoY RPK increase and with encouraging sign of yield recovery of c.1%YoY during the quarter. However, with 42.8% YoY jump in operating expensesand 15.2% YoY decline in non-operating income, 2Q17net profit dropped32.9% YoY to RMB250.7m. Deutsche Bank view – worst is behind; pax yield to pick up in 3Q17E As Spring’s 1H17profit accounted for 55% of our full-year earnings estimateand 48% of consensus, we consider the results in-line. We maintain Buy as weexpect the airline’s yield to bottom out in 3Q17with load factor staying atc.90%. We believe Spring Airlines will be a key beneficiary of China’s LCCdevelopment, which is still in its infancy stage at the moment with only 9%penetration. Our target price is set at a target 3.5x FY18E P/BV (unchanged).We believe this is justified vs. sustainable ROE of about 15-16%. Downsiderisks include 1) excessive new capacity on international routes, 2) slower-thanexpecteddemand growth in the North Asia and ASEAN routes, and 3)competition in domestic and regional routes.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-08-21 492.80 550.00 11.33% 494.63 0.37% -- 494.63 0.37% -- 详细
To increase ex-factory volume from August 15 Kweichow Moutai will supply more than 4500tons of mainstream "FeitianMoutai" between 15August to 30September, according to the media reportsfrom China Securities Daily. This implies 100tons/day during the peak season.Meanwhile, the company has delivered 150tons on August 15according to thenews. Through increasing supply, Moutai management aims to ease down thesupply shortage in retail end during the peak consumption seasons (Mid-AutumnFestival and National Holidays). It also target to control the retail price belowRmb1299/bottle. This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17 This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17for main stream products, if itdelivers more than 100tons per day from August 15. To recap, Moutai's dailyvolume was 55tons in 3Q16, and we estimate the daily volume was 60-70tonsbefore August 15. In addition, we expect its average selling price for premiumMoutai continue to increase driven by increasing portion of super premiumcustomized Moutai. This is higher than 36% yoy sales growth in 1H17andconsensus estimates at 20% yoy sales growth for 2H17. Channel restocking to continue; maintaining Buy In next 6month, Moutai will experience two traditional peak consumptionseasons - the mid-Autumn festival & National holiday in October and Chinese NewYear in Feb 2018. We expect supply shortage to continue, driven by increasingretail demand and distributor's channel stocking up. Our recent channel checkin Shanghai and Beijing also indicates that most retail stores are running out ofinventories. (For Moutai's re-stocking and de-stocking cycle history, please referto report "The restocking cycle is just beginning; reiterating Buy" ) . Within theshortage environment, we expect Moutai to increase its sales volume and reportaccelerating sales growth. We maintain Buy.
欣旺达 电子元器件行业 2017-08-17 12.22 14.50 20.53% 12.56 2.78% -- 12.56 2.78% -- 详细
Good results and optimistic 2H17outlook on iPhone 8strength Sunwoda released better 2Q17operating results thanks to sequential handset(iPhone/China smartphone) battery share gains and initial penetration of theiPad supply chain. Management anticipates 30-35% YoY EPS growth in 2H17,propelled by iPhone 8strength. We expect Sunwoda’s iPhone allocation to riseto 35-45% in 2017-2018vs. 20% in 2016. Driven by continued ASP increasesstimulated by dual cell battery proliferation, we expect Sunwoda’s iPhonerevenue CAGR to ramp to 40%+ in 2017-2020. Sunwoda is one of our toppicks in the iPhone supply chain, featuring both an ASP and an order allocationgain story. We believe its continued iPad share gains and increase in organicEV orders should ensure its long-term growth outlook. Reiterating Buy. 2Q17operating results tracking ahead of our expectations Sunwoda reported 2Q17earnings of RMB109mn (+5% YoY, +50% QoQ) onrevenue of RMB3.3bn (+76% YoY, +47% QoQ). Operating profit of RMB166mn(+130% QoQ, 39% YoY) was 20% higher than our estimate thanks to stronghandset/iPad battery share gains at major customers (Huawei, OPPO andApple, in our view). PC battery margin dropped to 12% in 2Q17vs. 15-16%previously; management attributes the unfavorable result to lower yieldresulting from new iPad battery production. After the initial learning curve,Sunwoda expects PC GPM to return to normal levels starting 3Q17. Thecompany also anticipates continued iPad allocation gains from 10-15% in 2017to 30-40% in 2018, supporting a 100% PC revenue CAGR in 2017-2018. Major beneficiary of iPhone 8battery spec upgrade Sunwoda indicates that its development process for the iPhone 8battery(upgraded to dual cell vs. single cell in iPhone 7) is nearly complete.Management is confident of winning a 50% share in both iPhone 8and thenew 5.5” LCD iPhone in 2H17. Due to the meaningful iPhone 8spec upgrade,Sunwoda anticipates a 50-100% increase in battery ASP, with 15-16% GPM vs.its historical average of 13-14%. Sunwoda also expects some of its Androidhandset customers to follow Apple’s new battery design (dual cell) given risingpower consumption needs and safety concerns about single cell design. Thecompany believes the ASP hike/share expansion at almost all of its handsetcustomers will help it deliver a 30%+ earnings CAGR in 2017-2018.Valuation and risks We fine-tune our model but keep our forecasts largely unchanged. We baseour RMB14.5target price on 24x 2018E P/E, or 0.9x PEG (vs. China IT industryaverage of 25-30x P/E, or 1.2x PEG), which we believe is reachable given thestrong sector outlook. Risks: iPhone share loss, slower China EV demand,unfavorable FX.
恒瑞医药 医药生物 2017-08-16 55.00 58.50 7.14% 55.11 0.20% -- 55.11 0.20% -- 详细
Multiple catalysts ahead; late-stage pipeline represents 17% market cap by DBe We update pipeline progress following the meeting with Chairman Sun. Majorcatalysts are: 1) approval of 19K and Abraxane generic by YE17; 2) resubmissionof retagliptin in the near term; 3) clarity on pyrotinib development, includingan earlier submission of marketing approval; 4) updates on clinical progressfor camrelizumab; and 5) phase 3data release on Incyte's ECHO-301. We alsohighlight potential upside from additional US IND approval and clinical progressof its novel compounds in the US. Our NPV analysis indicated the pipeline valueis RMB9.2per share. This comprehensive report includes key ongoing clinicalstudies for all mid/late study compounds, as well as competitors' studies.Camrelizumab as the largest driver; IDO inhibitor provides significant upsideWe have updated our peak sales for camrelizumab to RMB5-6bn in China andincreased the probability of success to 75-85%, based on the strong ORR datafrom the phase 1study. Four registration trials are being conducted at present.We expect Hengrui to get the first domestic PD-1approval, with safe data fromsufficient number of patients required by the CFDA. Additionally, we expect INDapproval for its IDO inhibitor from CFDA in the near term, following US INDapproval in May. We believe it would be significantly positive to the IO franchiseand we forecast RMB3-4bn peak sales for the IDO inhibitor. DB proprietary patient-based PD-1/PD-L1model Our model indicates that the addressable market for PD-1/PD-L1would beRMB19bn in China in 2017and RMB29bn in 2030, representing a CAGR of 15%.NSCLC and GC are likely to be the largest indications due to a large patient baseand unmet medical need. Our model is based on 14tumor types, including theapproved indications and major indications being investigated. Among domesticnames, we identified six companies that are conducting late stage studies fortheir PD-1/PD-L1with Hengrui being the leader. Valuation and risks Our current valuation for the late stage pipeline represents 17% of the market cap,vs. 15% as of our first attempt in September 2016. Our TP of RMB58.5is basedon 42x 2018E EPS. We believe 42x is justified, as A-share peers are trading at 29xwith 18% EPS growth in 2017(vs. the 24% we model for Hengrui). We believethe premium is justified, given the top China pipeline, major upside from exportsand the potential earnings growth acceleration driven by blockbuster launches.Key risks include product launch delays and price cuts.
宋城演艺 传播与文化 2017-08-14 18.55 33.00 72.77% 19.85 7.01% -- 19.85 7.01% -- 详细
Songcheng announced that show businesses in Jiuzhaigou (JiuzhaiRomantic show and the Mystery of Tibet) will start to suspend operationin August 9 due the recent earthquake. Note that On the evening of August 8, an earthquake struck JiuzhaigouCounty in Sichuan Province in China. To recap, Jiuzhai project generated revenue of RMB149m in 2016, whichcontributed 5.65% of Songcheng's total revenue of RMB 2.64bn. The company also disclosed that Jiuzhai project contributed 7% of totalnet earnings in 2016. Therefore, the company believe that the earthquake will have limitedeffect on Songcheng's 2017 total topline and bottomline due to Jiuzhai'slow contribution. Please also note that as of August 8, the revenue of Jiuzhai project wasc. RMB97m, which accounts for 65% of its revenue in 2016.
通化东宝 医药生物 2017-08-14 17.62 23.70 28.04% 19.03 8.00% -- 19.03 8.00% -- 详细
Solid growth from insulin franchise; reiterate Buy Tonghua Dongbao (THDB) reported sales/core profit of RMB616m/199m in 2Q17,representing YoY growth of 40%/31% respectively. We highlight the revenuegrowth acceleration in 2Q17, compared with 25%/34% YoY growth in 1Q17. Thegrowth acceleration was primarily due to inventory build-up from newly-signeddistributors. As for insulin glargine, THDB is in the final stage of data collection,with production filing expected in August according to management. We expectthe volume boost from NRDL inclusion to start in 4Q17. Reiterate Buy on highearnings visibility/ sustainability, and near-term catalysts. Solid ramp-up of 40R sales, while 50R lagged We estimate that insulin products achieved sales of RMB470mn in 2Q17 vs. RMB359mn in 2Q16, representing 31% YoY growth. Insulin needles and teststrips delivered over 30%/ 20% growth respectively, in 2Q17, suggesting growthmoderation vs. 38%/ 56% achieved in 1Q17. The slowdown in test strips wasdue to device compatibility and configuration issues of Bionime blood glucosemonitors. THDB's dual-product strategy started to bear fruit for Gansulin 40R, butyielded little results for 50R this quarter. As for flagship 30R, 20% growth couldbe maintained. Management estimated total sales of 40R to surpass RMB100mnin 2017. Expecting stable margins ahead, operating efficiency improved GM/OPM contracted to 74.5%/39.8% in 2Q17 compared with 76.4%/44.2% in2Q16. Management attributed the margin decline to low margins from real estateinvestment disposal. THDB guided stable margins going forward, with limitedASP erosion expected from provincial tenders. CCC days returned to 650 daysin 1H17, down from 897 days in 1H16, suggesting the conclusion of inventorydestocking issue. Lowering PT to RMB23.7 from RMB25.8; risks Our target price is based on 42x 2018E EPS. We believe the multiple is justifiedas its A-share peers are trading at 28x with 18% growth in 2018 (vs. the 21% wemodel for THDB). In our view, the premium is justified by its growth sustainabilityof the insulin franchise, ramp-up of CDMP and a compelling risk profile. Key risks:larger-than-expected ASP erosion, growth slowdown and product launch delays.
锦江股份 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-08-03 30.23 37.00 27.32% 30.80 1.89% -- 30.80 1.89% -- 详细
We estimate 1H17comparable RevPAR yoy growth to be 5-6%Jinjiang-A has reported its June-17hotel operational data by brand. We estimatethat the company enjoys solid operational results with blended RevPAR growthof 2-3% yoy. However, if we factor in the reform of business tax (5%) to VAT andproducts mix change, the comparable blended RevPAR growth is 5-6% (2.5-3%yoy increase of occupancy rate and 2-3% yoy growth of ADR). For mid-scalehotels, we estimate a RevPAR growth 10% yoy mainly driven by ADR growth of6-7%. Breakdown by brand: Jinjiang brand - 1H17RevPAR was estimated to be RMB139with 76%occupancy rate. For like-for-like basis (VAT reform effect started in May2016), 1H17RevPAR growth of 6% was driven by 1) 1.6% yoy increase ofoccupancy rate and 2) 3.5% yoy growth of ADR. Plateno brand - 1H17RevPAR was estimated to be RMB123with 79%occupancy rate. Since Plateno was consolidated in 2Q16. 2Q17RevPARgrowth of 8% was driven by 1) 4.5% yoy increase of occupancy rate and2) 2.2% yoy growth of ADR. Louvre brand - 1H17RevPAR was estimated to be EUR36with 61%occupancy rate. 1H17RevPAR growth of 3% was driven by 1) 2% yoyincrease of occupancy rate and 2) 1% yoy growth of ADR. Vienna brand - Vienna was consolidated in 2H16. As mid-scale hotels,Vienna was estimated to generate 1H17RevPAR of RMB209withoccupancy rate of 87% (vs. 1H17occupancy rate of 86% for ChinaLodging mid-scale hotels). By end of 1H17, there were 581hotels inoperation (vs. 464hotels by 2016end). Management guided previouslythat there will be c.700of Vienna hotels in operation by 2017end. DB’s view - 1H17results support our view that demand is improving Just like China Lodging's strategy on more mid-to-upscale hotels and Hantingupgrade, Jinjiang is also upgrading its product aggressively to mid-to-upscalehotel mainly through the brand of Vienna. Management guided previously thatmore than 1,000hotels are mid-scale among total 6,297hotels in operation by1H17end. We believe the major hotel groups are in the process of upgrading theirproduct to meet the higher demand from Chinese customer's trade-up, especiallyin tier 1-2cities. The hotel sector's recovery is mainly due to the robust domestictravel growth. In addition, mid-high-scale economy hotels' growth is driven bythe rise in demand by domestic travelers and business travelers, and consumertrade-up.
欣旺达 电子元器件行业 2017-08-03 11.64 14.50 20.53% 12.56 7.90% -- 12.56 7.90% -- 详细
Strong IT growth + new EV catalyst = Buy Sunwoda is the leading handset/EV battery pack maker in China. We expectthe company to deliver a 26%+ EPS CAGR in 2017-2020, stimulated by: 1)continued iPhone share gain/ASP hike; 2) initial taking off in iPad and Macbookbatteries; and 3) strong EV momentum propelled by accelerating EVpenetration in China. We also anticipate Sunwoda will deliver ongoing batterymargin expansion, given its superior quality stemming from verticallyintegrated production (in-house BMS/cell supply). Initiating with Buy rating. Strong i-device battery share gain is fueling accelerating growth ahead Sunwoda is the major battery supplier to both Apple and leading Chinasmartphone brands. We expect it to deliver 40%+ iPhone battery sales CAGRin 2017-2020thanks to 1) continued share gain (allocation lift to 30-45% vs.only 20% in 2016), and 2) ASP hike stemming from iPhone 8spec upgrades(changed to dual cell design with 50%+ price increase). We also anticipateongoing handset margin growth (15%+ vs. industry average of 8-10%)propelled by rising in-house battery cell (rising from 3% now to 40-60% in2018-2019E) and BMS supply for Android customers, and enhanced factoryautomation. Sunwoda also taps into iPad battery supply starting 2017andaims to win Macbook orders in 2018. Persistent Apple orders gains and non-Apple PC customer wins (Dell, HP) should stimulate 100%+ PC battery revenuegrowth in 2017-2018. EV batteries fuelling long-term momentum Sunwoda is an early mover in EV battery pack assembly and is establishingsolid partnerships with domestic auto OEMs (Wuling Motors, BAIC Motor,Dongfeng Motor, Geely). The company is expanding its EV battery cell capacityand aims to lift its in-house battery cell supply ratio. We expect Sunwoda todeliver a 35%+ EV profit CAGR in 2017-2020, propelled by acceleratingindustry growth (DB expects China EV market to expand at a 30% CAGR) andpersistent new customer gain.s given higher manufacturing flexibility overpeers (given its commitment in in-house battery cell and BMS development). Valuation and risks We base our RMB14.5target price on 24x 2018E P/E, or 0.9x PEG (vs. China ITindustry average of 25-30x P/E, or 1.2x PEG), which we believe is reachablegiven the strong sector outlook. Risks: iPhone share loss, slower China EVdemand, unfavorable FX.
国电南瑞 电力设备行业 2017-08-03 17.25 20.20 17.99% 17.76 2.96% -- 17.76 2.96% -- 详细
1H results beat; reiterating Buy as sector top pick NARI Tech reported stronger-than-expected 1H profit growth (+25%) andshowed encouraging order momentum. As we discussed in A value-accretiveasset injection plan; looking forward to a stronger NARI (19May), we expect itsoverall competitiveness to be greatly enhanced upon parentco asset injection(subject to approvals). NARI is our sector top pick, as we believe its favorableproduct exposure, diversification efforts and competitive R&D capability willlead to a quality earnings growth profile (16% CAGR in 17-19E) with betterdefensiveness and sustainability than peers. On the earnings forecast lift andconsolidation of target asset, we raise TP to Rmb20.2and reiterate Buy. Grid automation drives 1H results; strong group-level order momentum 1H NP was +25% yoy to Rmb350m, primarily driven by strong gross profitgrowth in the power grid automation segment, despite some weakness inothers. Meanwhile, 1H order intake at the group level rose 18% yoy, anencouraging momentum level seen broadly across segments. This could pointto a strong full-year performance for NARI (post-consolidation of target assets). Why do we like NARI the best? NARI Tech is our favorite sector pick, because 1) it has multiple growth drivers,especially rising secondary grid automation equipment and HVDC-Flexibletransmission investment; 2) its diversification in both products and marketsshould help defend a stable earnings outlook; 3) its unparalleled R&D capabilityshould keep driving new product initiatives, supporting sustainable long-termgrowth; 4) we see upside from post-merger synergies in terms of cost saving,efficiency/R&D enhancement and potential share incentive scheme. Lifting TP to Rmb20.2(previously Rmb18.5); key risks We raise FY17-19EPS 28-41% on 1H results beat and consolidation of targetassets with share issuance. Our TP is therefore lifted to HKD20.2(HKD18.5),with target P/E lowered to 20x FY18E as the valuation premium from the assetinjection should be removed. Risks: failure/poor execution of asset injection,lower grid investment, and market share/margin volatility on competition.
厦门钨业 有色金属行业 2017-08-03 30.78 35.00 11.71% 35.90 16.63% -- 35.90 16.63% -- 详细
Price recovery in all segments; upgrading Xiamen Tungsten to Buy from Sell We envision a comprehensive recovery in Xiamen Tungsten's major segments,including rare earth, battery materials, tungsten and cemented carbide. Weexpect major rare earth elements such as Pr and Nd to see a sustainableprice recovery on tightened supply control and decent EV growth (thus magnetdemand). Battery materials' margin should continue to improve as well oncethe company ramps up its high nickel ternary material plants in 2018and2019. Moreover, APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) and cemented carbide pricescontinue to recover thanks to strong cutting tools and mining machines output.We thus upgrade our rating from Sell to Buy, with a target price of RMB35. Rare earth - positive on Nd and Pr thanks to supply control and decent demand With the government's supply control (quota, SRB buying and crackdown onillegal mining), and decent demand from magnets/EV growth, we expect deficitsin rare earth elements such as Pr and Nd. Tb, although in surplus, entered easilyinto deficit territory upon SRB buying given its smaller market size of only 400tpa+. Xiamen Tungsten, one of the six major rare earth companies with c.2000theavy rare earth quota (c.11% of China's total heavy rare earth mining quota), isa direct beneficiary, in our view. Moreover, although we are neutral on magnets'profitability given its nature as a processor, we expect Xiamen Tungsten's magnetmargin to improve on the higher utilization rate. Ternary materials - an emerging leader We view Xiamen Tungsten as an emerging leader in cathode materials withits new plants of 10K/6K/20K ternary materials capacity in 2H18and 2019,respectively. We expect its margin to see a meaningful improvement in theupcoming years because ternary materials, as the mainstream cathode materialsadopted in EV currently, enjoys a better margin compared to the single-digitmargin for LCO used in portable devices. Tungsten and cemented carbide - still the most profitable segment In addition to the good momentum in rare earth and ternary materials, thetungsten segment so far continues to be the major contributor to XiamenTungsten's bottom line, thanks to APT and the cemented carbide price recoveryon decent demand. China's cutting tools machine output, one of cementedcarbide's downstream channels, experienced c.9% YoY growth in June 2017YTD.Mining machines like excavators saw 100% YoY growth in the first half-year.
爱尔眼科 医药生物 2017-08-02 22.60 28.70 27.10% 23.64 4.60% -- 23.64 4.60% -- 详细
Key takeaways from dbAccess China healthcare service tour Chairman Chen attended the briefing and articulated near/mid/long operationalpriorities. For the near term, Aier is targeting three objectives: 1) the integrationof four acquired ex-China assets; 2) the opening of 200facilities by YE17vs. 180now; and 3) meeting the RMB100m sales target for 15-17facilities that openedin the 2014/2015period in provincial capitals. For expansion in prefecture-levelcities, management cautioned that a reasonable length of time is required to allowa meaningful revenue ramp-up as establishing an RIDS takes time. More growth drivers than expected; old pony with new tricks Chairman Chen anticipates 30% growth in the next 5-10years, driven by M&Aand organic growth. The company sees substantial growth opportunities ahead,including prefecture/county level growth in the mid/long term, and growth inmature/sub-mature hospitals with mid-teen/more than 20% growth respectivelyin the mid term. For example, the oldest flagship hospital, Changsha Aier Hospital,has a target of RMB300m in 2017, vs. RMB233m / RMB212m in 2016/2015,respectively. The growth acceleration was mainly driven by increased investmentin equipment and personnel. Management also indicated that Aier is largerthan the top 2-9competitors combined, while capital, talent and its first-moveradvantage remain key to its competitive edge. Key statistics review for 1Q17and 2016 For cataract surgery, we expect growth to pick up in 2Q17from a low base in2Q16as the company was affected by the Putian incident. As a reminder, revenuegrowth in 1Q17, 4Q16, 3Q16, and 2Q16was 26%/33%/3%/10% respectively. Weestimate that organic growth for 1Q17would be 14% excluding new hospitals.Additionally, volume/ASP growth in 2016was 14%/8% vs. 49%/-6% in 2015, asper our estimates. For excimer surgery, volume/ASP growth was 20%/13% in2016vs. 18%/11% in 2015. The ASP growth was ascribed to service mix changetowards high-end procedures. On volume, the growth was driven by VFLS and ICLwith 100% and 50% growth respectively. We highlight VFLS and ICL accountedfor 45%/13% of sales within excimer surgery in 2016vs. 29%/11% in 2015. Maintaining price target of RMB28.7; risks Our TP is based on 25x EV/EBITDA on 2018EBITDA, in line with the approachwe use for hospital companies. We believe 25x is justified as its Asia peers aretrading at 18x with 16% growth in 2019(vs. the 29% we model for Aier). Key risksinclude delays in geographical expansion and slower ASP/volume growth.
华策影视 传播与文化 2017-08-02 11.42 14.80 24.16% 13.56 18.74% -- 13.56 18.74% -- 详细
1H17core earnings down 8% yoy mainly due to margin decrease in TV drama Huace Film&TV announced its 1H17results. Although the company’s 2016topline increased by 13% yoy to RMB1,75bn, its core earnings (non-recurring itemsmainly include government subsidies) decreased by 8% yoy to RMB225m. Webelieve that this is mainly due to the significant margin decrease because someof the TV drama revenue/profit recognition will be delayed in 2H17. We maintainour Buy rating for Huace with a target price of RMB14.8. Top line up 13% yoy mainly driven by TV drama and talent agency business Total revenue increased 13% yoy to RMB1.75bn, which is attributable to: 1) theTV drama production top line increasing by 39% yoy to RMB1.44bn, and 2) thetalent agency top line increasing by 621% yoy to RMB46m. 1H17Chinese movies'weak performance has resulted in a 19% yoy drop in the company’s film businesstop line. The company also shift their film strategy to distribution instead ofproduction. In addition, we saw significant growth of its talent agency and onlinegaming business. However, since total gross margin decreased to 25% in 1H17from 34% in 1H16and SG&A expenses increased by 38% yoy in 1H17, core netearnings dropped by 8% yoy. We believe earnings will lean more on 2H17 Since more revenue/profit will be recognized in 2H17, we are confident on our TVdrama revenue growth estimate of 20%. The company disclosed that there will bemore than 11TV drama's revenue recognition in 2H17. Looking at the full year of2017, management seems to be confident of delivering earnings of RMB 650m,as guided in its previous stock incentive plan.
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