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恒瑞医药 医药生物 2017-12-18 69.60 78.10 14.33% 68.80 -1.15% -- 68.80 -1.15% -- 详细
Pyrotinib data much better than T-DM1and lapatinib The PFS benefit (HR=0.374) surprised us despite previous qualitative commentsfrom Hengrui management. We believe it is highly likely Pyrotinib would be thegolden standard in 2L Herceptin relapsed HER2positive BC in China. To us,this is the second meaningful oncology clinical study from China ever, as trialdesign followed a reasonable treatment paradigm that is NOT full of Chinesecharacteristics. After data release at SABCS, we have higher conviction thatpyrotinib will be approved by CFDA based on P2data. Among trastuzumab relapsed patients, HR was 0.374while mPFS hasnot been reached in PC arm, vs. 7.1m in LC arm. The baseline PFS dataseemed to be in line with historic data (6.4m from EMILIA, 7m from S Gori2016). The yet-to-be-reached mPFS should be more than 21m, accordingto the data release. EMILIA study showed a PFS benefit of 9.6m for T-DM1vs. 6.4m for LC,with a HR of 0.65. Our surprise came from a gap of 21m vs. 9.6m. If thesedata could be repeated in a P3study, pyrotinib would become a goldenstandard in 2L BC. Previous studies indicated that TTP (from 1L Herceptin treatment) couldbe a predictive marker for PFS/OS benefit second-line HER2inhibitors.In this study, prior treatment of trastuzumab is associated with a longermPFS (7.1m vs. 5.6m for trastuzumab naive) for LC arms; data were alsoconsistent in PC arms. In our view, this should raise a serious questionfor Chinese regulators regarding the relevance of clinical data from thosestudies, specifically designed for Chinese patients today, who did notfollow NCCN treatment guidelines. The additional questions include whether pyrotinib could be used in1L BC, or adjuvant setting, or used off-label in GC. For the first twoquestions, we believe further data are required. That being said, for GCsetting, despite the failure of T-DM1(GATSBY study, 2L GC) and lapatinib(EGF110656, 1L GC), we gained reasonable confidence that pyrotinibmight work based on impressive P2data.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-12-15 44.00 49.20 11.82% 44.06 0.14% -- 44.06 0.14% -- 详细
The automation reform and diversification strategy are bearing fruits. In her speech, Ms. Dong commented that Gree began to diversifyits businesses in recent years. In addition air-conditioning business, ithas entered into the field of small appliances, smart manufacturing,smart phones etc. Gree is undergoing automation reform. The companyconsidered using the domestic equipment before, but it finally chose theimported German devices due to the higher precision. But as a long termplan, Gree decided to enter into the field of industrial manufacturing in2013. Currently, Gree’s CNC machine, and robots are not only providedfor internal use, but also for other industries. Ms. Dong said that all ofthe devices in Zhuhai Silver Dargon (a company invested by Ms Dongprivately) were produced by Gree. Preview of 2017 results. According to Ms. Dong, Gree ‘s 2017-ytdrevenue increased RMB 40bn (2016 revenue: RMB108.3bn) as comparedwith last year’s same period, and its NP margin was 15%. With 2017 sales increased by RMB40bn, this implies 2017 total gross revenuewill reach RMB148bn, which beat DB's forecast and market consensus by 5%and 4%, respectively. As for NP margin, her guidance is 0.3/0.8 ppt higher thanDB's forecast (14.7%) and market consensus (14.2%), respectively. Managementdid not comment on Ms Dong's 2017 sales and NPM data. Better product mix: an important positive in 2018 restocking that is not fullypriced in. Gree’s strong net margin could be driven by better product mix. In our recent channel checks we noticed that distributors (starting from thenew air conditioner year) are focusing more on improving their product mixthan in previous years, clearing inventory to recover cash. This may drive betterprofitability for air conditioner brands (on top of strong volume growth which islikely in the price). Profitability expansion should be universal, as Midea previouslyindicated that its core brand gross margin has improved by 2-3ppt YoY during 3Q17 analyst meeting. In our model, we expect GPM for 4Q17F to reach 32.3%for Gree vs 3Q17's 30.9% and 4Q16's 29.4%.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-12-15 10.76 10.14 -- 10.76 0.00% -- 10.76 0.00% -- 详细
On 11 December, Yonghui announced to sell 5% stake to Tencent (0700.HK, lastclosing price: HKD394). The details are yet to be confirmed. Tencent will also invest in Yonghui Yun Chuang, a subsidiary of Yonghui listcothat mainly includes Super Species and Yonghui Life. With this investment,Tencent expects to own a 15% stake in Yonghui Yunchuang. Given that the discussion is still at an early stage and uncertainties remain,Yonghui will remain suspended from trading from 12 December; however, thecompany has assured to confirm the details and resume trading before 18December 2017. Deutsche Bank view. The deal implies Tencent’s plans to further explore both online and offline retailmarkets, apart from the partnership with Jingdong; despite that the details of thepartnership are yet to be formed. Yonghui’s Super Species and Yonghui Life can also leverage Tencent’s large onlinecustomer base to extend their online and O2O presence. Please refer to our reportSun Art and Yonghui - A new wave of partner-seeking in a new retail environmentpublished on 8 December 2017 for further details. Currently, Yonghui owns 52%,CTGEI under Capital Toady owns 12%, Chairman Mr Zhang Xuanning owns 12%and co-founder Mr Peng Huasheng owns 24% of Yonghui Yunchuang . After theinvestment, we believe Yonghui Yunchuang will potentially become an associateof Yonghui listco (owning <50% stake).
锦江股份 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-12-04 29.81 37.00 20.60% 30.69 2.95% -- 30.69 2.95% -- 详细
Jinjiang is also on the way of products upgrade We reiterate Buy on Jinjiang Hotels with a TP of RMB37. We believe Jinjiangis also in the process of upgrading its product to meet higher demand fromChinese customers' trading-up, especially in tier 1-2cities. We also believe thecompany will start to focus on internal consolidation of its current four hotelbrands and that it is likely to halt further expansion through acquisition.Earnings growth driven by new brand full-year consolidation; RevPAR growthRecall, 9M17core earnings increased by 62% yoy to RMB494m (vs. RMB306min 9M16). This is mainly due to 1) Plateno and Vienna’s full-year consolidationin 2017, 2) reduced cost and expenses after acquisition, and 3) 9M17JinjiangRevPAR growth of 4.3% (9M17blended RevPAR growth of 6-7% if excludingVAT reform effect), driven by the Chinese economy hotels’ recovery. Midscale hotels expansion driven by Vienna The hotel sector's recovery is mainly due to the robust domestic travel growth.In addition, mid-high-scale economy hotels' growth is driven by the rise indemand of domestic and business travelers, as well as consumer trade-up.Jinjiang is upgrading its products aggressively to mid-to-upscale hotels, mainlythrough the Vienna brand, just like China Lodging's strategy for more mid-toupscalehotels and the Hanting upgrade. Management had guided previouslythat more than 1,000hotels were mid-scale out of a total of 6,503hotels inoperation as of 9M17. In addition, 50-60% of the hotel portfolio pipelines aremidscale. As of 9M17, the Vienna brand led the midscale hotel marketexpansion with more than 300hotels added in 2017YTD. Valuation and risks TP based on SOTP methodology (12-month weighted average EV/EBITDA); Jinjiang operates in multiple business segments (we use DCF as the primarymethodology for other hotel companies to capture secular growth over themedium term). We separately calculate EBIDTA of Jinjiang’s Chinese andoverseas selected hotel businesses. We assign a 12x multiple to Hotel Louvre,which is in line with the high end of European peers. We assign a 14x multipleto Plateno (7days) and the original Jinjiang Chinese selected hotel business,which is the average for peers. Downside risks: 1) lower tourism demand; 2)stronger RMB, leading to more outbound travel; and 3) govt policy changes.
中国国旅 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-11-23 45.51 55.00 30.86% 44.85 -1.45% -- 44.85 -1.45% -- 详细
One catalyst comes true, gaining duty free business in SH, ahead ofexpectation We view this event positively and believe its timeline is ahead of our expectation.We believe the launch of working with Sunrise will follow the same pattern as thatof the Sunrise Beijing acquisition. CITS acquired a 51% share of Sunrise Beijingfirst in the middle of this year. CITS and Sunrise Beijing successfully won thebidding of duty free operation of Terminal 2and Terminal 3of Beijing InternationalAirport, respectively. The total duty free sales of Shanghai airports (both Hongqiao and Pudong)should be larger than Beijing Airport. Currently, it's still at a preliminary stage ofcooperation. We believe the key factor here is whether the concessionaire ratepaid to Shanghai airports will be as high as those at Beijing Airport.
中国国旅 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-11-20 42.50 55.00 30.86% 45.96 8.14%
45.96 8.14% -- 详细
According to a news article published by DFE (Duty Free Expert), CDFG-LS (ChinaDuty Free Group and Lagardere Travel retail) launched Duty Zero by cdf, CITS'new brand of liquor & tobacco duty free business in Hong Kong InternationalAirportt (HKIA). Duty Zero stated that it is committed to keeping price of liquor&tobaccothe most attractive in Asia. Duty Zero will operate 8 stores with a total area of 3,400 sq m. It willgradually introduce experience stores with different themes by June2018. To recall, CITS announced on 5 April that the joint venture (CDFG-LS) ofChina Duty Free Group and Lagardere Travel retail had won the biddingfor the HKIA duty-free liquor and tobacco concession for seven years fromDFS Group. CITS owns 80% stake of the joint venture. Operating period will be fromNov 18, 2017 to Sep 30, 2024. Currently, there was still no disclosure onthe concession rate. Traffic for HKIA in 2016 is c.70.8 million (vs. 25 million for BCIA and 35million for Shanghai Pudong). In addition, most of the travellers stay morethan 3 hours in HKIA. We observe traffic in Hong Kong starts to rebound in Sep 2017. Accordingto PartnerNet.HK, visitor arrivals in Hong Kong increased by 4.8% to 4.64million in Sep 2017, mainly driven by 7.2% growth of traffic from MainlandChina (3.6 million in Sep 2017). 9M17 total traffic increased by 2.2% yoyto 42.6 million.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-11-20 696.00 745.00 12.05% 688.80 -1.03%
688.80 -1.03% -- 详细
Restocking cycle to continue; revising up TP to Rmb745. We estimate Moutai’s current channel inventory equals six months of Moutai'sreal consumption, indicating there is still room for distributors and high-wealthindividuals to fill up their warehouses. More importantly, this would leavemanagement time to deal with the channel stocking problem. Meanwhile, weidentify three possible catalysts that might trigger channel de-stocking, andbefore these catalysts are triggered, we expect less risk of a strong de-stocking. We are revising up Moutai’s TP to Rmb745 and we maintain Buy. Current channel inventory equals six months of real consumption. We think Moutai’s strong sales recovery from 2016 has been mainly driven byboth channel restocking and a consumption upgrade. Therefore, it is importantfor investors to gauge the water line in the channels. Based on historical channelinventory movement, Moutai’s ex-factory supply, and Moutai’s real consumptionpattern, we estimate that currently there are 12,000 tons of Moutai in distributors'and investors' warehouses, representing six months of real consumption in 2017. Compared with the peak level of 12 months in 2012, this implies there is roomfor channels to stock up (Figure 1). Three catalysts that could trigger channel de-stocking in next 12 months. Distributors are building up channel stocking because they expect the retail priceto continue to go up. Therefore, whenever such an expectation weakens, thecycle could turn from restocking to de-stocking. We identify three events thatmight lead to weakened expectation: 1) Moutai strictly implements a fixed pricee-commerce policy; 2) Moutai raises its ex-factory price at an inappropriate time;and 3) the retail price rises to Rmb2000 suddenly, which is the peak level in the lastcycle. Before these catalysts happen, we believe risk-reward remains attractivefor a Buy on the stock. Maintaining Buy. Moutai's management is undertaking several measures, including implementingprice guidance, increasing supply and implementing an e-commerce policy, tostabilize the retail price. We expect these measures to push distributors to releasechannel inventory gradually (instead of suddenly). We are revising up our TP toRmb745 based on the DCF method (factoring in 9.5% WACC and 2% TG). Wereiterate Buy. Downside risk: sudden channel de-stocking.
中国国旅 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-11-13 42.81 55.00 30.86% 46.25 8.04%
46.25 8.04% -- 详细
Consensus may not fully capture company's growth, short term and long term We raise our target price for CITS by 37.5% to RMB55, from RMB40.Management has publicly guided that its duty-free business is likely to seegrowth of over 60% yoy for FY2017. Also, we believe consensus hasn’tfactored in profit from Beijing Airport, the potential opening of a downtownduty-free store and the consolidation of duty-free in Shanghai Airport. Given itsrobust and sustainable growth, high barriers to entry and attractive valuation,CITS has become our conviction Buy for 2018. Profit from BCIA should be higher than the consensus estimate We expect RMB6.6bn duty-free sales from BCIA (T2& T3) in 2018. We believethe market is overly concerned with the high concessionaire rate from BeijingAirport: 1) during the transitional 12m, CITS will pay the original concessionairerate agreed with Sunrise, and 2) there is still room for GM improvement, giventhe size-up (CITS’ duty-free GP margin was only c.45% vs. Dufry’s 60% in2016). We estimate RMB623m profit contribution for 2017and RMB349m for2018. We believe this has not been factored into WIND/Bloomberg consensus. Haitang Bay’s robust growth may continue all the way to 2020 We have grown more confident on Haitang Bay duty-free sales after our recentchannel checks. We expect duty-free sales to hit RMB6.55bn in 2017, yoygrowth of 43%, and to grow another 28% in 2018. Our channel check foundthat there are two new additions of luxury hotel resorts (new supply of 800-1,000rooms) in Haitang Bay every year to meet the strong demand fromdomestic travelers. We also believe Atlantis and Haichang Ocean Park, two inprogresstheme parks could add another 5-6m travelers to Haitang Bay. Allthese incremental travelers should benefit duty-free sales’ long-term growth. Two more significant catalysts may double current profit – not priced in yet We believe the current share price hasn’t fully factored in two near-mid-termcatalysts: a downtown duty-free store and consolidation of duty-free businessin Shanghai Pudong/Hongqiao Airports. These two events are likely to bring afurther c.RMB1.2bn in earnings to CITS, which is 35% on top of our 2018E. Valuation and risks Our TP of RMB55implies a forward PER of 24x on our 2018earningsforecasts, which we believe is very attractive, given that the duty-free businessis protected and enjoys barriers to entry in China. We derive our TP based onDCF (8.1% WACC, 9% cost of equity, beta of 0.9and 3.0% TGR, unchanged).Key downside risks include 1) unfavorable government policy, 2) ecommercecompetition, 3) delays in lifting shopping quota, and 4) competition from OTAs.
汇川技术 电子元器件行业 2017-11-08 29.95 34.30 22.50% 31.26 4.37%
31.26 4.37% -- 详细
An emerging national champion; raising TP According to an ancient Chinese proverb, to win a battle, it requires the right time,right place and right people. In the battle for market share in China's industrialautomation (IA) sector, we believe all these three factors align with Inovance.In terms of timing, the Chinese government's strong push for manufacturingupgrades and promotion of high-end manufacturing should help to sustain robustIA demand in the next 10years. On top of it, local players who focus on hardwareequipment will accelerate their market share expansion, given the government'sintention to promote local champions. Along with management's impressivemarket insights and distinct "vertical-based" strategy, we believe Inovance is wellplaced to top the inverter and servo markets in China by 2025. With sustainablelong-term growth and an industry-leading position, we believe the stock's currentvaluation premium is warranted. We raise target price to Rmb34.3. At the right time "Made in China 2025" was first unveiled in May 2015, at a time when China'smanufacturing industry and IA market were struggling. Thanks to a strong topdownpush from the government, China's IA market started to recover in 2H16,with the recovery positively surprising in recent quarters. We view this round ofIA recovery as structural instead of cyclical, and hence we believe it is highly likelyto persist in the next 10years. Apart from government support, manufacturerswho are facing poor quality, low efficiency, and labor shortages have also startedto voluntarily automate their production facilities. This trend has now spreadinto traditional verticals such as textile machinery, machine tools and metallurgy,signaling that current China's automation upgrades have become broad-based.We expect China's overall IA demand to post a 10% CAGR in 2017-20, whilethe general servo and low-voltage inverter markets, Inovance's two focusedsegments, to register a CAGR of c.20% and 10%, respectively, over 2016-20(vs.+6% and -5% over 2011-16). Over 2021-25, we expect China's general servo andlow-voltage inverter markets to witness a CAGR of 10% and 5%, respectively (vs.China's overall IA market: 5%). In the right place China's current manufacturing upgrades still largely center on hardwareequipment, which has been Inovance's strong suit. In addition, the government'spromotion of localization has been intensifying, which would accelerate localplayers to gain market share. Currently, 65% of China's IA market is still dominated by foreign players. In some of Inovance's focused markets, the ratiocan be as high as c.90%. Leveraging its deeper understanding of local customersand improving the price-to-performance ratio of its products, Inovance hassuccessfully grown into a local leader capable of challenging MNCs' positionsin certain areas. Its low-voltage inverter and general servo already ranked No.3and No.5, respectively, in China. With accelerating import substitution, we expectInovance to become the No.2player in China's low-voltage inverter and No.3inthe general servo market by 2020. By 2025, Inovance is highly likely to lead bothmarkets, based on our estimates.
未署名
均胜电子 基础化工业 2017-11-07 39.65 40.40 18.58% 43.41 9.48%
43.41 9.48% -- 详细
KSS capital increase from Joyson and strategic investor。 Joyson announced after market close on 3November that the company enteredan agreement with an external investor, SDIC (State Development & InvestmentCorp.) Fund Management regarding the capital increase in Joyson's auto safetysubsidiary KSS. Joyson and SDIC Fund will invest USD150m and USD250m,respectively, in KSS (for a total amount of USD400m) for auto safety businessexpansion, global M&As and working capital. Following the capital increase,Joyson's stake in KSS will decrease to 84.85% from 100% previously and SDICFund will take the rest 15.15% stake in KSS.。 Joyson acquired KSS in June 2016and the business recorded close to USD5bnnew orders last year. According to the announcement, KSS reported RMB12.1bnrevenue (+22.2% YoY) and RMB398.8m net profit (+77.1% YoY) in 2016.。 Deutsche Bank view - overhang on acquisition funding removed。 Earlier in June this year, Joyson announced that KSS had signed an MOU withTakata to buy Takata's non-PSAN business for not more than USD1.6bn, includingUSD350m in cash. We believe the USD400m capital increase will ease investors'concern on the funding source for Takata air bag business acquisition. MaintainBuy on our optimistic view for the growth potential of KSS in active safety andADAS market in China. In 3Q17, Joyson said KSS recorded new contract wins foractive safety products.。 Our TP is set at 30x FY18E P/E (unchanged), ~15% below its mid-cycle P/E of 36x.This is justified, in our view, since we expect the company to deliver a 37.5% EPSCAGR in FY16-19E. Key downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected auto sales; 2)failure to consolidate KSS/TS or improve profitability; 3) future capital raising tofund potential acquisitions.。
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-11-07 9.28 10.14 -- 10.63 14.55%
10.76 15.95% -- 详细
Promising in SSSg terms, with long-term store expansion story; Buy Yonghui's strong store-opening pipeline in 4Q17/2018gives us more confidencein its sales growth in 2018/2019F. SSSg is seeing sequential improvement withtraffic resuming positive growth since 3Q. We believe this is mainly helped by itscompetitive fresh food segment. We also believe its cost advantage from supplychain management will help it to achieve GPM expansion over time. We havefine-tuned our 2017/2018NP by -3%/+2% to reflect a slightly higher opex ratio in2017and an acceleration in store opening in 2018. We also roll over by one yearto 2019in our DCF model and raise our TP by 14% to RMB10.14. We maintainour Buy rating on this stock. Yonghui reported NP up by 131% to RMB337m on sales up 20% to RMB15bn in3Q17. Sales were largely in line with DBe while NP was 6% lower than DBe. Thediscrepancy mainly stemmed from a higher-than-expected opex ratio. We expectthat SSS in 3Q was up by 1.5% vs. 0.8% in 1H17, and that Oct was even better.We expect the company to open 106/100new stores in 2017/2018(gross base)and also to open another 100Yonghui Life and 100Super Species storesby 2017/2018respectively. We believe its acceleration of store expansion andeffective organization structures (four business units and partnership model)can help the company to continuously enjoy better-than-market performanceand operating leverage. We forecast its NP for 2017/2018/2019to grow by47%/44%/29%, respectively.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-11-06 29.70 31.60 -- 33.26 11.99%
33.26 11.99% -- 详细
Strong sales growth on recovering sector growth and market sharegains. We estimate the industry retail growth recovered from low singledigit in 3Q16 to high single digit in 3Q17, helped by less price discounton more balanced supply. Meanwhile, Yili's market share in Ambient/chilled products/IMF expanded from 31%/15%/5.7% to 34%/16%/6%respectively (Figure 1). Selling expense/sales ratio declined 100bps yoy to 21.9%, helped byeasing of competition within a more balanced supply environment. G&A expense declined 150bps yoy to 6.2% from a high base, as Yiliincurred incremental G&A for some one-off event (i.e. internal propertymaintenance). SG&A expense savings was partly offset by 102bps yoy decline in grossmargin, due to rising raw milk and packaging prices. Improving inventory turnover indicates that 4Q growth to remain strong. Inventory days improved from 31.9 days in 3Q16 to 30 days in 3Q17. Given theproduction date is an important decision factor when consumers choose brandsin retail ends, the shorten inventory days indicate improving fresh level of theproducts, which should help to drive its sales growth in 4Q17. The improvinginventory days also indicate a more balanced supply and demand market. We expect the recovery trend to continue with an under supply environment. We believe Yili's growth recovery from 2Q is mainly driven by more balancedsupply from 2017. After three years capacity reductions for upstream dairy farmsfrom 2014, raw milk supply is becoming more balanced with demand from 2017. During the over supply environment, smaller dairy players could source raw milkat a heavy discount compared with large brands, but during the under supply environment from 2017, smaller players need to pay a premium instead. This helpslarge players such as Yili and Mengniu to gain market share. Reiterating Buy. We are revising up our earnings forecast by 2-4% in 2017-19E, mainly to factorin higher-than-expected sales driven by Yili's market share gains. We revise upour TP by 13% to Rmb31.6 based on a DCF approach, factoring in a 9.5% WACC(3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% terminal growth. Wereiterate Yili as our top pick among our A share coverage. Downside risks: higherthan-expected raw material price increase, food safety incidents and worse-thanexpectedcompetition.
均胜电子 基础化工业 2017-11-03 39.65 40.40 18.58% 43.41 9.48%
43.41 9.48% -- 详细
Mild profit growth with SG&A cost control offsetting weak margin 3Q17revenue grew 9.3% YoY to RMB6.3bn. However, gross profit declined 20.5%YoY to RMB0.9bn in 3Q17with 5.6ppt YoY gross margin deterioration due toincreasing revenue contribution from lower margin segments such as BMS andADAS (auto safety and interconnection system). Together with 1) 17.2% YoY dropin SG&A expenses (SG&A ratio declining to 11.1% of revenue in 3Q17vs. 14.6% in3Q16) and 2) one-off disposal gain of the remaining stake in industrial automationbusiness, but partially offset by 43.1% YoY increase in finance cost, 3Q17netprofit increased by 71.1% YoY to RMB271.1m. On a 9M17basis, Joyson's netprofit of RMB886.7m was up 1.2x YoY and accounted for 78% of our previousfull-year FY17earnings forecasts and 75% of Bloomberg consensus. Therefore,we consider the results slightly above our expectation. Deutsche Bank view - auto safety and ADAS gaining momentum Joyson is on track to consolidate the KSS and PCC businesses acquired last year.According to the company, the two segments further recorded new contract winsfor active safety products and interconnection system. We raise our FY17-19Erevenue by 2.7-3.0% and net profit by 2.8-4.0% to reflect stronger revenue growthfrom new businesses and lower SG&A cost ratio, partly offset by lower grossmargin assumptions. Maintain Buy on our optimistic view for the growth potentialof KSS in active safety and ADAS market in China. Our TP is set at 30x FY18E P/E(from 27x, given the sector re-rating over the past few months), ~15% below itsmid-cycle P/E of 36x. This is justified, in our view, since we expect the companyto deliver a 37.5% EPS CAGR in FY16-19E. Key downside risks: 1) weaker-thanexpectedauto sales; 2) failure to consolidate KSS/TS or improve profitability; 3)future capital raising to fund potential acquisitions.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-11-03 38.62 43.00 13.49% 43.66 13.05%
43.66 13.05% -- 详细
Buy rating with new target price of CNY43 We reiterate our Buy rating on Hikvision and raise our target price to CNY43from CNY34.5, as we raise our earnings forecast and lift the target multiple to30x from 25x, driven by our expectation of accelerated earnings growth due tomargin expansion. Better-than-expected margin expansion and outlook We have been highlighting Hikvision’s margin expansion through a risingsolution business and management efforts. 3Q17GPM of 46% is a high since2015, above DB/consensus expectations of 42%. As Hikvision continues topursue solution business opportunities in overseas markets and its domesticmarket continues to improve, we expect the company to sustain the 2017margin expansion into 2018/2019at 44%. AI strategy focuses on edge cloud computing Hikvision recently announced its “AI cloud” framework at the 16th publicsafety expo in Shenzhen. Its strategy focuses on edge cloud for videosurveillance applications, which allows faster responses and the filtering ofunnecessary data from video/images captured by millions of camerasconstantly. In addition to domestic transportation and security projects,Hikvision has won a smart city project in Singapore of over USD10mn. Theincreasing adoption of AI presents upside risks to revenue and margins. Positive progress in the innovation business In addition to AI, the innovation business is a growth catalyst at Hikvision. Thelargest contributor is Ezviz, whose subscribers exceed 20mn. In addition to aconsumer client base, it has business clients, such as retail chain and propertymanagement companies, which utilize the Ezviz cloud to track client traffic andmonitor premises. Its robot business has landed orders for three types ofrobots for JD.com’s automated warehouse in Shanghai. We expect theinnovation business to grow 142%/83% in 2017/2018. Valuation and risks Hikvision’s share price has appreciated over 150%+ YTD (vs. ShenzhenComposite index: 2%). We expect it to continue re-rating, given acceleratedprofit growth from AI exposure, rising innovation contributions, and marginimprovement. Our new target price of CNY43is based on 30x FY2018E PE,which lies toward the top end of the company’s historical trading range, andwould be supported by an accelerated 34% profit CAGR in 2017-2019E,compared to a 26% profit CAGR in 2014-2016. Risks: market share loss, weakdemand in industry project orders (see page 8-10, for details).
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拓普集团 机械行业 2017-11-02 26.12 34.90 32.35% 27.25 4.33%
27.25 4.33% -- 详细
6% profit YoY with strong top-line growth offset by margin and FX。 3Q17gross revenue edged up 25.8% YoY to RMB1.2bn, likely driven by strongorders from local brands OEM customers, such as Geely, SAIC Roewe, andGAC Trumpchi. Gross profit rose 20.0% YoY to RMB324.2m with a 1.3ppt YoYgross profit margin contraction, mainly due to product mix deterioration with lesscontribution from shock absorber and intelligent braking segments, in our view.Together with a flattish SG&A to sales ratio in 3Q17, offset by FX losses (due toRMB appreciation vs. USD) and lower other operating income, 3Q17net profitincreased only mildly, 5.8% YoY to RMB164.1m.。 On a 9M17basis, Tuopu's net profit of RMB551.1m was up 30.1% YoY andaccounted for 70% of our full-year FY17forecast and 67% of the Bloombergconsensus FY17estimate. Therefore, we consider the results as a slight miss toboth our and consensus expectations.。 Deutsche Bank view – Buy on growth potential from ADAS。 We believe Tuopu will continue to benefit from the rapid growth momentumat its key OEM customers and expect Noise, Vibration and Harshness (NVH)parts to remain the company's major revenue contributor. In addition, we remainoptimistic on the growth potential of Intelligent Braking System (IBS) and ElectricVacuum Pump (EVP) products.。 Our target price is set at a target 26x FY18E P/E (unchanged), near with its midcycleP/E of 28x. Key downside risks: weaker-than-expected auto sales volume; failure to record new order awards for IBS/EVP products; and unexpected increasein raw material prices.。
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