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青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2017-06-23 14.56 16.51 10.07% 15.37 5.56% -- 15.37 5.56% -- 详细
This is in line with Haier’s long-term strategy. PML operates production ofautomation & customized intelligent equipment mainly for RF and WM,and provides solutions for factory management system. Qingdao Haier Co.,Ltd believed that the deal would help the company to further enhance itsintelligence manufacturing capability by integrating PML’s COSMOlineintelligence manufacturing digital platform into its own COSMOPlatplatform. We believe net margin should improve for both. This deal is the first step for materializing commitment. To recap, QingdaoHaier acquired 20% of FPA in 2009 and acquired the remaining stake ofthe company at a consideration of USD701m (RMB4.5bn) in 2012. In orderto avoid competition between Qinghai Haier and FPA, Haier Groupannounced in January 2011 that it will inject white goods asset to QingdaoHaier within five years. Though, this has been delayed as Haier Groupbelieves that FPA’s financial performance was short of expectations andneeds more time for integration. In 2015, Haier Group agreed to inject FPAasset into Qingdao Haier by June 2020.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-06-23 20.58 22.00 5.82% 21.39 3.94% -- 21.39 3.94% -- 详细
A quality growth stock Sales growth remains good in near-term Yili attended Deutsche Bank’s global consumer conference in Paris and also visited investors in the UK last week. We summarize investors’ top 5 questions on page 2. Investors generally agreed on the good growth potential for China’s dairy sector and were impressed by Yili’s strong execution capability. We think Yili is a good proxy for investing in China’s consumption trade-up trend in nutritional products. We reiterate our Buy rating. Sales growth remains good in near-term Management expects sales growth in 2Q17 to improve vs. 1Q17 (it was 3% yoy in 1Q17), helped by stabilizing competition and a lower base (it disposed of Youran farm in April 2016). Meanwhile, major raw material costs, i.e. packaging and sugar, are also stabilizing in 2Q17 vs 1Q17, albeit partly offset by less use of low-cost raw material inventory. We forecast gross margin to be stable vs. 1Q17. For the full year, management maintains its guidance at 7% sales growth and 6.5% PBT decline (on lower government subsidy income). Multiple drivers to achieve Rmb100bn sales in long-term In the long term, management maintains its target of achieving Rmb100bn sales and becoming a global top five dairy company. Firstly, it expects to achieve higher-than-peers growth in basic dairy products. Secondly, the major driver will come from plant-based milk (it will launch soy milk in 2H17), organic milk (it is bidding for US Stonyfield), and chilled yoghurt. Thirdly, it is also open to entering the non-dairy healthy food category. On EBIT margin, Yili is already higher than most global peers, but it thinks there is still expansion potential through better product mix and the launch of high-margin categories. We reiterate Buy We like Yili for its experienced management team, strong distribution network, and good track record in new product launches. We expect it to achieve higher-than-peers growth through gaining market share, category expansion and M&A. We reiterate our Buy on Yili with TP of Rmb22, based on DCF model, factoring in 9.5% WACC (3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% TG.. Key downside risks: higher-than-expected raw material increases, food safety incidents and worse-than-expected competition.
沧州明珠 基础化工业 2017-06-19 13.79 15.20 14.20% 14.34 3.99% -- 14.34 3.99% -- 详细
New TP pursuant to stock split We adjusted our TP of Cangzhou Mingzhu to RMB15.2 pursuant to its 17 for 10 share split.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2017-06-15 14.99 16.51 10.07% 15.37 2.54% -- 15.37 2.54% -- 详细
Maintaining Buy with new target price of RMB16.51 Premiumization strategy bearing fruit We maintain our Buy recommendation on Qingdao Haier thanks to its globalization and premiumization strategy. Its core business started to pick up since 2H16 and expects to see a robust growth in terms of sales and NP. The synergy of GEA is also ahead of expectation and thus it raised the accumulated synergy effect benefit from USD130m to USD310m for 2016-2019F, as stated in the annual report. We estimate the company to report NP CAGR of 18% for the three years vs. FY17 PE16x, which is inexpensive. Premiumization strategy bearing fruit To cater for current consumption upgrade trend, Qingdao Haier has laid out clear brand segmentation, specifically with premium brands, e.g. GEA to penetrate high-end market. It also sees additional RMB3bn revenue from high-end home furnishing and decoration channels. This strategy enabled Haier to secure growth with ASP increase, thus becoming a defensive margin player (GPM expanded 3.1ppt/1.5ppt to 31%/30% in 2016/1Q17). We conservatively expect GPM to improve to 32.2% in 2019. Across-the-board growth acceleration in 2017 The company expects RF and WM to see a better-than-industry growth in 2017 (we forecast the industry growth for RF will decline 1.1%, while that for WM will increase 3.9% in 2017 in volume vs China IOL’s projection of - 4.7%/+3.6%). AC will even grow faster and continue gaining market share. 1H trend will remain consistent with 1Q momentum across the board. We lift our DCF-based target price by 35.3% to RMB16.51 (old: RMB12.20) Our DCF-based target price is RMB16.51, as we raise our forecast by 8-9% for 2017-18 and roll over our DCF forecast we used a blended COE of 8.5%, long-term growth rate of 1.5% and a target capital structure with zero debt assumption. This translates into 16/14x FY17/18E P/E, which is in line with its historical PE multiple. Downside company risks: 1) slower-than-expected revenue growth in domestic and overseas markets, 2) smooth transition of the acquired business, 3) failure to achieve synergy, and 4) unfavorable FX.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-06-15 37.37 38.87 -- 41.56 11.21% -- 41.56 11.21% -- 详细
Maintaining Buy with new target price at RMB38.87 We expect domestic market sale-in volume to rise 16% to 70m in 2017 We maintain our Buy recommendation on Gree as we believe it will benefit from its strategy of offsetting the rise in raw material prices with new model launches. This move to not raise its retail prices too aggressively will help gain volume. However, given its lion’s share in the market, we expect Gree’s share to increase 2ppt to 45%. Meanwhile, its plan to diversify the business from AC is likely a mid-term strategy, which is unlikely to have key contributions in the short term. We raise our NP for FY17/18 by 21%/15% and introduce the 2019 forecast. We raise our TP by 36.5% to RMB38.87, which is a combination of earnings revisions and is based on rolling over of our first DCF forecast year. We expect domestic market sale-in volume to rise 16% to 70m in 2017 This is based on a 2.2% rise in retail demand to 69m sets (buoyant property market and government promoting central AC) and ~3m inventory channel restocking. Please refer to Figure 19 and Figure 20 for our retail demand model. Outlook for Gree We expect a 21% rise in sales in 2017, of which 81% would come from AC, up 23%. In our model, we expect a 19% rise in sales volume to 42.9m in 2017, which will likely normalize to 6% each year for 2018/19. We expect overall GPM to increase 0.5ppt to 34% due to launch of new models and we expect EBITM to improve 1.7ppt to 14.2%. Raising target price to RMB38.87from RMB28.48; risks We use DCF to value the company with a new target price of RMB38.87 (old RMB28.48), as we roll over the DCF forecast year to 2027 and raise our FY17/18 forecast by 21%/15% (details on page 3). We also introduce the 2019 forecast. Our target price implies 12x/11x FY17/18 PE, which is at a premium to its historical valuation point during de-stocking of channel inventory, and dividend yield at 4.6% for FY17E. Downside risks include competition, subsidy policy, and M&A.
均胜电子 基础化工业 2017-06-14 29.95 35.00 11.04% 32.79 9.48% -- 32.79 9.48% -- 详细
HMI electronics to sustain growth; KSS acquisition for active safety initiatives Successful M&As transformed local supplier into global auto electronics player Since 2009, Ningbo Joyson has committed to a series of acquisitions which have transformed its business mix away from functional parts to higher growth areas in safety equipment and Human-Machine Interaction (HMI) products. Over 70% of revenue is derived from these deals and this will continue to generate the major share of future earnings growth. Key Safety Systems (KSS), the fourth ranked global airbag manufacturer is the most important addition and will drive our forecast of 34% EPS CAGR for 2016-19E. Integration has been successful to date and opens up new potential markets in ADAS and safety products. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating. Successful M&As transformed local supplier into global auto electronics player Five acquisitions with a c.Rmb11bn investment have materially altered the group’s scale and business mix. Revenue this year will be nearly four times the scale of 2014. Business lines now include, connectivity, automatic safety, power controls for new energy vehicles and HMI. Consolidation of these assets has been successful - for example, after acquiring Preh, net margin improved from 1% to 5+% through penetration into China and reductions in sourcing and production costs. Funding has been largely completed after a Rmb8.3bn issue in 2016 and the balance sheet gearing will be under 20% by end 2017. Autonomous driving the next driver, with new products in active safety We expect Joyson to will deliver 24% FY16-19 revenue CAGR, driven mainly by the consolidation of KSS and an 18% CAGR from HMI. EPS after dilution is expected to more than double by 2019. In addition, KSS and TechniSat will allow the company to explore opportunities in auto safety and ADAS, a market in China that could grow to c.USD11bn by 2020. Initiating with a Buy rating and target price set at 27x FY18E P/E; risks Our target price (TP) of RMB35.0 is set at 27.0x FY18E P/E. We expect Joyson to deliver a 34% FY16-19 EPS CAGR driven by robust growth at Preh and the consolidation of KSS, with a margin improvement. Key downside risks: weaker-than-expected auto sales; failure to consolidate KSS/TS; future capital raising to fund potential M&As; unexpected increase in raw material prices. (See page 4-5 for detail)
拓普集团 机械行业 2017-06-14 31.26 35.40 6.31% 35.10 12.28% -- 35.10 12.28% -- 详细
Shock and noise absorber leader tapping ADAS through intelligent braking Market leader in vibration absorber and acoustic insulation, with robust outlook Tuopu is a leader in China’s Noise, Vibration and Harshness (NVH) market and a main supplier to Geely. New initiatives in ADAS/autonomous driving will start to feature from 2018, with Intelligent Braking System (IBS) products currently at the testing stage with JV OEMs. This diversification will be funded with RMB2.4bn from a private placement to build capacity and mass production will begin in late 2018. We estimate it should deliver a 24% FY16-19E net profit CAGR, driven by robust growth in NVH and IBS/Electric Vacuum Pump (EVP) projects in FY19E. We initiate with a Buy and target price of RMB35.4. Market leader in vibration absorber and acoustic insulation, with robust outlook Tuopu ranks No. 1 in rubber shock absorbers and No.6 in acoustic insulation products in terms of market share. Geely was its largest customer in FY16, contributing c.20% of revenue, followed by SAIC GM. We expect Tuopu to benefit from the rapid growth momentum at Geely, with its popular Boyue, GS and GL models. We expect NVH parts to remain Tuopu’s major revenue contributor and forecast a 24% FY16-19E revenue CAGR with stable margins, on a robust outlook for NVH products. New initiatives in autonomous driving to support long-term growth Active safety has been increasingly included in new car safety assessments, including C-NCAP, and automatic braking is an essential active safety feature. The investment in IBS, a market previously dominated by Bosch, opens the door for Tuopu to this and other ADAS functions. It is currently testing its IBS products with some JV OEMs and after completing an RMB2.4bn private placement in May to expand its production capacity, Tuopu will be the first domestic supplier to produce IBS, starting late 2018. Initiating with Buy and target price set at 26x FY18E P/E; risks Our TP of RMB35.4 is set at a target 26.0x FY18E P/E, at par with the historical average. We expect Tuopu to deliver a 24% FY16-19E profit CAGR, driven by robust growth in NVH products and a stable margin outlook. Key downside risks: failure to record new order awards for IBS/EVP products; weaker-than-expected auto sales and unexpected increases in raw material prices.
锦江股份 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-06-13 26.82 37.00 40.74% 27.00 0.67% -- 27.00 0.67% -- 详细
Upgrading to Buy due to better industry outlook - 2017 is bottoming out We upgrade Jinjiang Hotels to Buy, with a new TP of RMB37 (from RMB34).The upgrade is mainly due to: 1) Plateno and Vienna’s full year consolidation in2017, 2) reduced cost and expenses after acquisition, and 3) better outlookdriven by Chinese economy hotels’ recovery. We believe the company willstart to focus on internal consolidation of its current four hotel brands and thatit is likely to halt further expansion through acquisition. Off to a good start: 1Q17 RevPAR growth and reduced cost and expenses Jinjiang has reported 1Q17 RevPAR growth of 1.36%; however, if we factor inthe reform of business tax to VAT, the comparable RevPAR growth is 6.36%(i.e. 1.36%+5% of business tax rate, vs. China Lodging’s RevPAR yoy growthof 9.4%). In addition, Jinjiang cut its costs and expenses by c.RMB10m in1Q17. In the same period last year, there was expense incurred for theacquisition of Plateno and more financial cost. As domestic tourists reached4.4 billion (yoy growth of 10%) in 2016, we believe strong demand for budgetand mid-scale hotels will continue in 2017E. Newly-acquired hotels likely to double EBITDA contribution in 2017 We have factored in the full-year contribution of newly-acquired hotelsincluding Plateno (9-10M contribution in 2016) and Vienna (half-yearcontribution in 2016). We mainly raise our Plateno EBITDA estimate, by c.40%to reach c. RMB1.1bn (doubled from RMB0.6bn in 2016), due to the full-yearcontribution and cost efficiencies. As a result, we increase our earningsforecasts in 2017/2018 by 26%/29%. Valuation and risks We use SOTP based on EV/EBITDA (12-month weighted average) as ourprimary valuation methodology. We separately calculate the EBIDTA ofJinjiang’s Chinese and overseas selected hotel businesses. We assign a 12xmultiple to Hotel Louvre, which is in line with the high-end of European peers.We assign a 14x multiple to Plateno (7 days) and the original Jinjiang Chineseselected hotel business (in line with the original China lodging business), whichis the average for its peers. Risks: 1) lower tourism demand; 2) stronger RMB,leading to more outbound travel; and 3) government policy changes.
恒瑞医药 医药生物 2017-06-13 51.16 58.50 16.77% 51.77 1.19% -- 51.77 1.19% -- 详细
Hengrui PD1 enters the fourth registration trial. As of June 5, camrelizumab entered the fourth registration study, a phase 2single arm for relapsed or refractory classical Hodgkin Lymphoma (cHL)according to CDT website. As a reminder, camrelizumab is in phase 3 studiesfor 1L NSCLC and relapsed/ refractory esophageal cancer, and a P2/3 study forrelapsed/ refractory liver cancer. We believe the rationale to start this study isdue to the possibility for regulatory approval based on a small single armstudy. Recall KEYNOTE-087 was also a single arm study with 210 cHL patients. Among domestic competitors, Beigene entered cHL in April 2017 with a P2study scheduled to enroll 68 patients (60 in China and the rest in South Korea)among 17 sites (14 in China), while another compound IBI308 entered P2 inApril as well targeting 90 patients among 29 hospitals. Hengrui plans to enroll60 patients at two sites. As the speed of enrollment is obviously the key forthis race, we continue to stay optimistic that Hengrui is likely to win. ECHO-301 study will be closely watched. We believe recent stock rally was largely due to US IND approval of its IDO, asHengrui became the first Chinese company with both IDO and PD1 inhibitor. As a reminder, the most advanced IDO P3 study, ECHO-301 from Incyte, islikely to be unblinded in 2017, while the fate of IDO could be largelydetermined. Earlier today, Roche returned the rights of IDO inhibitor GDC-0919to NewLink Genetics, after expressing doubts over IDO as a valid target at theanalyst event this Monday. While it is possible this could be compoundspecific, we would wait for ECHO-301 data to adjust POS (probability ofsuccess) for Hengrui's IDO. DB view: expecting a crowded IO market in China. We remind investors that there are 15 domestic PD1 obtained CFDA approvalfor clinical studies already, while both Hengrui and Sino Biopharm are waitingfor its PD-L1 IND approval (or CTA) from CFDA. Based on our conversationwith Chinese physicians during ASCO, their top concern is cost, as they believedrug efficacy/ safety profiles of these PD1 might be largely similar.
沧州明珠 基础化工业 2017-06-08 12.69 15.19 14.12% 14.34 13.00% -- 14.34 13.00% -- 详细
Aggressive expanding separator and mild improving pipe; initiating with Buy Separators: expanding capacity three-fold to catch up with strong demand CZMZ is expanding separator capacity three-fold to catch up with strong demand from EV battery supply chain at a CAGR of 30%. This accounts for c.25% of gross profit in 2017, rising to 41% by 2019E and underpins our positive outlook on the company. Separately, it has a consistently strong plastic pipe business (c.40% of gross profit) which will benefit from coal-to-gas switch projects and may increase volume at a CAGR of c.15% in the next three years. The BOPA business (c.35% of gross profit) will likely see profitability decline but the strong separator and pipe operations should boost its bottom line at 21%/13% YoY in FY17/18E. We initiate coverage with a Buy. Separators: expanding capacity three-fold to catch up with strong demand We believe that the separator industry will continue to face a supply shortage over the next few years due to strong demand and a lack of quality producers, able to provide large scale volume. CZMZ has decided to increase its capacity three-fold by 2019, increasing its global market share from 4% in 2016 to 6% in 2019. Although pricing for industrial separators could continue to decline, CZMZ is likely to maintain high margins above 50% in the next three years, with: 1) cost cuts from technology improvements and economies of scale; and 2) more value-add through coating. Pipe business: a major beneficiary of ‘coal-to-gas switch’ projects The traditional plastic pipe business grew at 25% YoY in 2016, when ‘coal-to-gas switch’ projects were being constructed in Northern China to deal with the smog issue. CZMZ may continue to be one of the major beneficiaries of ‘coal-to-gas switch’ projects in the next three years due to: 1) geographic advantage within the c.500km transportation radius of plastic pipes; 2) capability of providing a full set of pipe products including connectors, which require higher manufacturing technology; and 3) strong client relationships. High visibility growth with a CAGR of 17% 2017-18E; initiating with Buy The BOPA business has outperformed since 2016, the result of an unbalanced market demand/supply after the exit of a major player. However, we believe that super high profitability will revert back to the historical long-term average level of c.15% when more supply is added. Despite this, the strong expanding separator and improving pipe business should boost the bottom line at CZMZ with a CAGR of 17% in 2017-18E and keep ROEs c.20%. We set our target price at RMB26, based on 25x FY18E EPS, which is the average of lithium battery components industry, implying 24% upside potential. Major risks: significant EV subsidy policy changes; capacity expansion being slower than expected (cf p.5).
当升科技 电子元器件行业 2017-06-08 18.43 21.00 -- 25.50 38.36% -- 25.50 38.36% -- 详细
Earnings forecast to grow at CAGR of 70% in FY17-19, initiating with Buy. Aggressive capacity expansion to catch up with downstream demand Easpring is one of the largest cathode producers in China, focusing on producing NMC (lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide). The company plans to aggressively expand NMC capacity at its Jiangsu factory in the next three years to catch up with the strong industry demand for NMC. We believe Easpring will be able to maintain high profitability, due to its capability to regularly research and launch leading cathode products like 622/811 NMC. We estimate earnings to rise from c.RMB100m in 2016 to c. RMB500 in 2019E, generating a 3Y CAGR of c.70%. Current trading prices imply 31x/20x FY17/18E EPS. We initiate coverage of Easpring with Buy. Aggressive capacity expansion to catch up with downstream demand. We forecast that global cathode demand for lithium batteries will rise from c.200kt in 2016 to c.400kt in 2019, a 3Y CAGR of 23%. Among all major cathode types, we estimate that NMC demand could rise the quickest, registering a 3Y CAGR of c.45%, due to a structural change in demand. See our FITT report, “Supplying the charge - evaluating the battery component sector” published on 6 June, 2017. In order to catch up with strong downstream demand, Easpring has shifted its focus from LCO (lithium cobalt oxide) to NMC since 2015 and plans to aggressively expand its total capacity from 8ktpa in 2016 to 31ktpa in 2020, mainly for NMC, at its factory in Jiangsu. Stable profitability stemming from continuous launch of leading products. Easpring should be one of the key beneficiaries of the structural industry demand shift to NMC from LFP (lithium iron phosphate). For Easpring, NMC sales volume accounted for c.75% of total cathode shipments in 2016. This proportion should rise further, as more NMC production lines are built and ramped up. We also believe Easpring should be able to stabilise its profitability by: 1) researching and launching leading products (622/811 NMC and NCA) with higher ASP; and 2) lowering unit costs stemming from leading technology and higher utilisation rates, due to a better product mix. Earnings CAGR of c.70% over 2017-19E; initiating with Buy; risks. The machinery business, acquired by Easpring in 2015, should remain a high-margin division, but we estimate that its gross profit contribution could drop from c.30% in 2016 to c.10% in 2019, due to the fast-growing cathode business. Overall, we expect Easpring’s earnings could grow from c.RMB100m in 2016 to c.RMB500m in 2019, implying a 3Y CAGR of c.70%. We use P/E methodology in view of fast earning growth and set our TP at RMB21, 25x FY18E DBe EPS, the average the lithium battery components industry implying ~24% upside potential. Risk: significant China EV policy changes (p.3).
恒瑞医药 医药生物 2017-06-02 49.68 58.50 16.77% 51.79 4.25% -- 51.79 4.25% -- 详细
Adjusting price target to RMB58.5on 6:5stock split The 6for 5stock split has been effective on May 31, which increased thenumber of shares outstanding to 2,817million. We adjust our price targetproportionately to RMB58.5from RMB70.0to reflect the stock split. Our netprofit forecasts remain unchanged, and we adjust EPS forecasts to RMB1.13and RMB1.39for 2017E and 2018E respectively. Reiterate Buy on Hengrui. Valuation and risks Our price target of RMB58.5is based on 42x 2018E EPS. We believe that 42xis justified as A-share peers are trading at 29x with 18% EPS growth in 2017(vs. 24% we model for Hengrui). We believe a multiple premium is justified dueto its best pipeline in China and the potential earnings growth accelerationdriven by blockbuster launches. Key risks include product launch delays andprice cuts.
聚光科技 机械行业 2017-05-29 27.85 45.00 58.73% 28.80 3.41%
28.80 3.41% -- 详细
Analytical instrument trip reaffirmed our positive view on FPI. Policy imperatives to drive EMS upcycle; FPI is well positioned We recently conducted a field trip to China, visiting major analytical instrument players and several of FPI’s major subsidiaries. We walked away with stronger confidence in Focused Photonics Inc. (FPI). Organic growth remains robust across major segments, including environmental monitoring systems (EMS), laboratory equipment and water conservancy. We were particularly impressed by FPI’s strategic vision of becoming an analytical instrument leader and believe its well established platform could facilitate horizontal expansion, which has proved to be a winning strategy for this industry globally. Policy imperatives to drive EMS upcycle; FPI is well positioned . The expanding environmental monitoring network, rising coverage on monitored pollutants and stricter emission requirements are the three structural drivers for EMS that we believe should play out during the 13th FYP period. Industry participants are, in general, bullish on the organic growth outlook, expecting 25-30% growth ahead. The likely change in the government’s procurement behaviour (i.e., centralised procurement and adoption of PPP model) should accelerate industry consolidation, in favour of leading players with a wide range of product/solution offerings and strong balance sheets. We note FPI’s recent winning of two PPP projects (Huangshan and Guangxi) demonstrates its competitiveness. Robust growth outlook at subsidiary level; a proven acquirer and integrator. We visited FPI’s three subsidiaries, Jitian (laboratory instruments), Anpel (laboratory consumables) and Dongshen (water conservancy and water intelligent systems). They are local leaders in their respective niche segments and were previously acquired by FPI. Our takeaways are twofold: 1) on growth, all three companies are aiming to grow their businesses by 20-30%; 2) they expect synergies under FPI’s platform through its strong distribution channels and established customer relationships, which are among the key reasons they chose to join the “FPI family”. We believe FPI’s leading market position could facilitate its future horizontal expansion (via acquisitions).
中国国旅 社会服务业(旅游...) 2017-05-29 27.33 31.94 9.31% 29.53 8.05%
29.53 8.05% -- 详细
Lifting TP on a better outlook for duty-free growth in 2017/18 - Buy. HKIA duty-free business will start contribution in 2018E Although the final bidding result for T2&T3 duty-free concession in BJCIA has not been disclosed yet, we lift our TP for China Travel on the better outlook for duty-free business. To remind, CITS announced on 5 April that the joint venture (CDF-Lagardere Limited) of China Duty Free Group and Lagardere Travel retail had won the bidding for the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) duty-free liquor and tobacco concession for seven years from DFS Group. Also, the company's 1Q17 duty-free sales show 16.7% yoy growth. Factoring in these two near-term catalysts, we lift our TP to RMB65 from RMB57. HKIA duty-free business will start contribution in 2018E. Retail licenses and advertising revenue amounted to HKD7.5bn in 2015 and total traffic was 70.5 million in 2016, as per the public annual report of HKIA. Its retail business of liquor & tobacco and cosmetics & perfume accounted for c. HKD5bn revenue in 2016. The company also disclosed that they will gradually take over the operation from Nov 18, 2017 to May 2018. We assume that 50% revenue is for the liquor and tobacco JV business with 2018 full year contribution and we can assign a 56% gross margin (based on 2016) and 15% net margin on that business to be conservative; we can derive net earnings of c. RMB169m (5,000 million * 0.9 (fx rate) * 50% * 50% * 15%). This is roughly 7% of our estimate for CITS’ 2018 net income of RMB2,401m. We lift our 2017 earnings forecast due to 1Q17 duty-free performance. Based on MOFCOM data, 1Q17 Hainan duty-free sales grew 16.7% yoy to RMB2.63bn, we lift our 2017 Haitang Bay revenue growth to 15% from the previous 10%. Therefore, we basically lift duty-free 2017/18 revenue growth forecasts to 12%/14% yoy, from 8%/8% previously. As a result, our TP reaches RMB65 because we increase our earnings forecast in 2017/18 by 12%/11% to RMB2.2bn and RMB2.4bn. This is mainly due to revenue mix change. Valuation and risks. We derive our RMB65 TP from a DCF-based valuation (8.1% WACC, 9% cost of equity, beta of 0.9 and 3.0% TGR, unchanged). CITS currently trades at 24.5x 2017E PER but at a lower multiple (22.7x) on our 2018E earnings. Key downside risks include: 1) unfavorable government policy, 2) e-commerce competition, 3) delay in lifting shopping quota and 4) competition from OTAs.
国电南瑞 电力设备行业 2017-05-22 17.19 18.18 4.84% 18.66 6.63%
18.33 6.63% -- 详细
Parentco asset injection to enhance overall competitivenessNARI Tech’s preliminary plan for a parentco asset injection via share issuanceentails an above-expectation scope, attractive valuation and decent EPSaccretion. The injection (mainly NR Electric), subject to approvals, would helpenhance its overall competitiveness by cementing its grid automation/protection leadership, adding UHV/HVDC flexible transmission and exportcapability. The stock remains suspended pending further announcements. Maintaining Buy and Target price of CNY18.50. Details of asset injection proposalThe total deal consideration of Rmb26.5bn mainly comprises 1) Rmb21.6bn foran 87% stake in NR Electric (relay protection, UHV/HVDC flexibletransmission), 2) Rmb1.8bn for Puri Engineering (UHV/HVDC flexibletransmission) and 3) the rest for export, etc. The plan is to fund this via: 1)1,721m of shares issuance (71% of existing share capital) to NARI Group andother counterparties at a price of Rmb13.93/shr (a 16% discount to the lastclosing price); and 2) Rmb2,499m in cash. It also proposes to fund a Rmb6bnproject investment via a private placement (<=486mn shares). Attractive deal valuation with decent EPS accretion expectedThe deal pricing represents 2.57x FY16 P/B and 14x FY16 PE, vs. 4.6x P/B and28x P/E for the listco. Valuation appears attractive, given higher ROE (19%) oftarget assets vs. listco (16%). In FY16, the target assets generated Rmb1.9bnof net profit (>80% from NR Electric), 130% of that of the listco. Conservativelyassuming 5% growth in target assets (the profit guarantee details are yet to befinalized), FY17/18 EPS would be enhanced 14%/10% post the share issuance. DCF-based target price of Rmb18.5; risksWe maintain our DCF-based target price of Rmb18.5, comprising Rmb15.4/shrfor existing assets and Rmb3.1/shr for an asset injection premium. Our TPimpliedFY17/18E PE of 22x/19x (if factoring the asset injection plan andassuming 15% EPS growth in target assets) is largely in line with its historicalaverage and grid automation peers. Key risks: deal failure, significant variance tothe final plan, grid investment, market share/margin volatility with competition.
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