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信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-01-26 35.18 51.36 171.03% 41.18 17.06%
43.34 23.19%
详细
Initial setback, but remains the long-term winner of WPC trend We used to argue that Apple will change the design of wireless powercharging (WPC) module from “FPC-based" (in iPhone 8/X) to “copper coilbased"(in iPhone 9/XI), and Sunway could win 50% market share in the newdesign. Our latest supply chain check indicates the design change is takingplace, but Sunway might only take 10%-15% market share. However, we stillregard Sunway as a key beneficiary of the WPC trend. In 2018, it could gainhigher market share in Samsung WPC modules, and start initial shipments ofWPC TX (transmitter) modules to auto OEMs. Long term, it remains wellpositioned to become a primary supplier of iPhone WPC modules. Retain Buy. Update on WPC – some losses in iPhone but some gains in Samsung and auto We attribute Sunway’s miss (in not being the primary supplier for iPhone) tothe lack of experience in Apple’s WPC solution. The competitor, Luxshare, hasbeen supplying wireless charging pads for Apple Watch and other devicessince 2015. But, leveraging the expertise in coil-type solutions (NFC antenna)and WPC modules for Samsung Galaxy S/Note, we believe Sunway has a goodchance of growing its market share to 40%+ or 50% by 2019or 2020. On apositive note, we expect Sunway to grow its Samsung WPC market share from~15% in 2017to 25%-30% in 2018, after it recently set up a pilot runproduction line in Korea (to provide better on-the-ground service). In addition,Sunway might start to deliver WPC TX modules for European auto OEMs in2018(for their high-end vehicles). EMI shields, Lightning connectors, and VCM/dual cam frames remain on track The progress of multiple projects for iPhone remains unchanged. First, Sunwayhas already penetrated into lightning connectors, serving as the third supplier,and will start shipping in 2018. Second, Sunway expects a continually risingcontribution from camera-related mechanical parts (dual cam supportingframes and VCM shielding cases), given all three models could have dual camdesign in 2H18. Last, the company expects to win more EMI shielding caseslots, or gain higher shares in the current slots. Valuation and investment risks We trim 2017/18/19EPS forecasts by 2%/9%/10% (slower progress in iPhonewireless charging module business) and reduce TP from RMB60to RMB52.Our new TP is still based on 0.8x PEG (in line with regional peers), or 33.5x2018PER. Risks: market share loss, slow spec upgrade, and iPhone weakness.
通化东宝 医药生物 2018-01-23 24.60 19.58 97.38% 25.35 3.05%
26.87 9.23%
详细
Guiding for 30% net profit growth in 2018 Management guided for revenue growth of 20% and net profit growth of 30% in2018. On insulin glargine, production approval is expected in 4Q18while reachingRMB300-400m sales in 2019is likely. For insulin needles, the company is aimingat over 30% growth. Management continues to expect margin expansion, drivenby improving product mix and SG&A ratio. Insulin glargine to reach RMB300-400m sales in 2019 Management believes insulin glargine is likely to reach RMB300-400m sales in2019, and over RMB2bn sales in 2020. Market penetration of insulin glarginewill be driven by existing sales team. According to management, the coveragenetwork for 40R already reached 1000hospitals in 2017, on track to exceed2018target of 2000hospitals. Similarly for insulin glargine, coverage can reach1000hospitals by YE20, likely growing comparable with Ganli within 3-4yearsof launch. Though hospitals usually work with only 2suppliers for each drug,management expects maximum of 20-30% hospitals to be affected with regardsto promoting insulin glargine. Margins and other key updates Management expects continued margin expansion given higher gross marginsof third generation insulin products, though substantial volume growth maytake time. In addition, the company plans to utilize existing sales team forpromoting insulin glargine, leading to lower SG&A ratio going forward. Sales perrepresentative ranged widely at RMB3-10m in 2017, and the company would becautious in incremental hiring in 2018given expansion of the team in 2017.
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2018-01-19 8.95 6.36 -- 11.48 28.27%
11.48 28.27%
详细
Production capacities may go up in 2018 Baosteel expected the steel industry to release more production capacities in2018because the de-capacity target for 2018in China at 25mtpa is only halfof the target for 2017at 50mtpa. The company’s new EAF productions and thecompleted capacity replacement projects may drive its production capacities togo up in 2018. The main capacity replacement projects are Phase I (c.4mtpa) andPhase II (c.4mtpa) of Rizhao steel mill in Shandong Province. Phase II will be putinto operation in the second half of 2018according to the company. Mild price correction and continually resilient spread in 2018 In 2017, overcapacity cut and winter production shutdown policy affected steelcompanies’ production capacities and the commencement of new construction,which drove the steel price to largely increase. The rebar price particularlyexceeded RMB5,000/t in December 2017with gross profit margin at c.RMB1,500/t. Thus, price correction began at end-2017and may continue in 2018. Baosteelexpected the rebar price to drop by RMB800/t from the current price level. As theeffects of the government policies that were executed in 2017may extend into2018, the company expects a mild price correction and guided steel spread tostay relatively resilient with stable annual average selling price in 2018. Long steel profits may not have premium over flat steel profits in 2018 Long steel was overall more profitable than flat steel in 2017. However, thissituation is contradictory to the demand trends of long steel and flat steel. Marketdata showed a stable trend of flat steel demand from auto and home applianceindustries and a declining trend of long steel demand from infrastructure andproperty industries. Thus, the outlook of flat steel in 2018should be more positivethan long steel. Long steel profits may not have premium over flat steel profitsin 2018. Ramping up EAF may become a trend In 2017, IF furnace was fully replaced by EAF and BF. Although the governmenthas not promulgated policies to promote EAF, Baosteel started EAF productionduring 2017(2mtpa in 2018). The industry’s EAF capacities should remain thesame at 15mtpa in 2018. The company’s production output of EAF in 2018willbe higher than 2017because of the full-year operation in 2018.
首旅酒店 社会服务业(旅游...) 2018-01-16 29.30 28.77 93.09% 34.38 17.34%
35.39 20.78%
详细
BTG Hotels (600258.SS) attended our dbAccess China Conference today. Keytakeaways from the conference are as follows:Accelerating RevPAR growth in 4Q17 - BTG Hotels disclosed that blendedRevPAR yoy growth accelerated during 4Q17 (RevPAR yoy growth: Dec > Nov >Oct) and this trend also occurred at Jinjiang and China Lodging. This is mainlydue to the super Golden Week in Oct 2017 (8 days of national holidays includingMid-Autumn Festival which drives more homecoming than traveling). As for thefull year 2017, BTG's RevPAR growth is expected to show a similar trend to thatof Jinjiang. Hotel expansion - Management was confident about fulfilling their target ofadding 400-450 hotels in 2017 (guided at the beginning of 2017) and also guidedthat the company intends to add c.500 hotels every year over the next 4-5 years. Mid-scale hotel proportion - The company guided that c.40% of additions will bemid-scale hotels. They expect there will be c.1,000 mid-scale hotels by the end of2019, which accounts for c.20% of total hotels. M/F hotels proportion - The company disclosed that 70% of total hotels are M/F hotels (Manachise or Franchise) currently. They expect M/F hotels' proportionwill gradually reach to 90% over the next 4-5 years. Hotel traffic breakdown - As for the hotel traffic, c.50% of total comes from theirmembership or centralized reservation system (including their website and APPs),c.15% comes from OTA, c.10% comes from corporate and c.10% comes fromother channels (including walk-in).
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2018-01-16 35.02 29.95 7.70% 35.93 2.60%
35.93 2.60%
详细
4Q sales growth slowing down due to late Chinese New Year Management expects sales growth in 4Q17to slow down from 18% in 3Q17,due to shorter peak season falling in 4Q17with a later 2018Chinese New Yearseason. For the full year 2017, it expects sales growth to achieve double digit,core margins (exclude government subsidy) to expand, and net profit to achievepositive growth. The sales growth has been mainly driven by increasing demandand increasing market share in the lower tier region. The management indicatesthat the industry sales grew by 7% in 2017, with 8-10% growth in lower tier regionand 5-6% in high tier regions. Industry competition could ease down in 2018 Management expects the good demand growth to continue in the near-term. Thekey sales driver will be UHT yoghurt and high end UHT milk. The competitioncould ease down thanks to a more balanced raw milk supply. Yet there will beincreasing cost pressure due to rising raw material cost. Unless there is a sharpincrease in raw milk price, the management does not expect a like-for-like pricehike, but it will reduce price promotion to partly offset the cost increase. Soy milk contribution is still limited in early stage Yili launched soy milk with the brand "plant selected" in January. It currently hastwo SKUs for soy milk , the original taste priced at Rmb4.0/pack and the black soybean priced at Rmb4.6/pack. The company is positive on the sector and estimatethe industry market size to be Rmb100bn. In 2018, it expects soy milk sales shouldbe a few hundreds million, and think it is still too early to achieve break even dueto initial marketing spendings. Our view: growth story intact Yili's guidance is in line with our expectations. We expect its market share couldcontinue to increase in 2018with industry competition slowing. Meanwhile, thesoy milk and new SKUs continues to be key sales drivers. As industry leader, webelieve Yili could pass through the cost inflation by reducing price promotion andultimately price hikes. We reiterate Buy on Yili. Downside risks: food safety, andoversupply.
五粮液 食品饮料行业 2018-01-16 91.20 88.94 -- 92.50 1.43%
92.50 1.43%
详细
Still needs more time before next price hike Investors' questions focus on whether Wuliangye will raise its ex-factory prices.Management did not rule out the possibility of an increase in time, especiallyafter Moutai's price hike. However, it thinks that more time is needed, given thatchannel profit has only been stable for one year. The company's priority currentlyis to maintain channel profit margins and to strengthen the retail price stability. Target 30% yoy sales growth in 2018 Management is confident it can reach its target. Key sales drivers will be: 1)mainstream Wuliangye to grow by 18% from 17,000tons in 2017to 30,000tonsin 2018; 2) price increase through raising the portion of "out of plan" volume from10% in 2017to 50% in 2018, implying a 5% price increase; and 3) incrementalsales of mass market sub brands to RMB10bn in 2018– it targets to build upone sub brand with RMB2bn sales, and 2-3sub brands with RMB1bn sales bythe end of 2020. To increase channel penetration through its "10thousand project" Management aims to increase its penetration through a “hundreds of cities,thousands of counties, and ten thousand stores” program. By the end of 2017,it had built up 7,000core POS and 1,000Wuliangye specialty stores. It targetsto increase to 8,000core POS and 1,500specialty stores in 2018. The channelexpansion will be a key driver for its 30% growth target. Meanwhile, throughinstalling IT systems at the retail end, the company will have stronger control inchannel inventory and better understanding of the market. Our view: don't leave the party too early We like Wuliangye for its lower risk in channel de-stocking, especially afterMoutai price increase and with the approach of Chinese New Year. We expect thecompany to enter a secular growth period in 2018-19, and its earnings to register29% CAGR in 2018-20E, driven by management’s strong incentives for growthand expanding the high end liquor market after the increase in Moutai price. Wereiterate our Buy rating with TP of RMB98based on DCF approach. Downsiderisk: channel de-stocking in the high-end liquor sector; food safety; worse-thanexpectedmacro FAI slow down.
中航光电 电子元器件行业 2018-01-16 38.00 17.61 -- 38.36 0.95%
45.38 19.42%
详细
Defense: Jonhon sees limited impact from China's military reform in theform of tenders for military-grade connectors as it has already adoptedopen bidding in the past. That said, due to organizational reshufflingwithin the military headquarters due to the reform and the fact that orderflows are typically slow in the first two years during a five-year-plan period,the company did see a slowdown in terms of defence order intakes in2017. However, management expects new orders to improve in 2018 (2Hin particular, given the seasonality) and to further take off in 2019-20. Telecom: Management expects 5G to become a significant growth driverin 2019-20 as the capex cycle kicks off. Before that, management doessee some pressure for its existing product portfolio as 4G capex continuesto trend down. This, however, could be mitigated by the surging exportorders, which saw 30%+ growth in 2017 (overseas customers include:Samsung and Nokia). NEV: New order growth significantly picked up in 2H17 and theproduction schedule for 4Q17 was extremely busy. Overall, managementexpects this segment to continue to be a key growth driver in the comingyears. Moreover, cooperation with Tesla has been progressing well,with its high-voltage connector product likely entering Tesla’s suppliercatalogue, in addition to the existing EV charge coupler.
科士达 电力设备行业 2018-01-16 17.15 19.26 -- 17.40 1.46%
17.40 1.46%
详细
High investors interest on promising industrial growth. Kstar is one of the largest uninterruptable power supply (UPS) brands in Chinaand is gaining QF investors' attention recently due to its (30% EPS CAGRin 2017-2020E) industrial growth on robust data center setup in China. Thecompany generates most of its UPS revenue from financial institutions (30-40%of UPS revenue), government agents, transportation infrastructure and IDC,which feature high entry barriers. Given its continued high-power UPS marketshare gain from international brands (Schneider), Kstar is confident of postingongoing market expansion from its current 35% level. Investors also like Kstar’ssolid balance sheet (net cash, positive FCF) and promising EV charging growth;reiterating Buy. Delivering 30% EPS CAGR in 2017-2020E on industrial growth (IDC UPS, EVcharging). Kstar expects a 30% EPS CAGR in 2017-2020E driven by strong high-power(20kVA+) on-line UPS growth on IDC proliferation in China and robust EVcharging demand. Propelled by its continued R&D investment in premium UPSand the support from the Chinese government, Kstar keeps gaining sharefrom international UPS brands (eg. Schneider, Eaton) in China. Managementanticipates its market share will expand from 15-16% now to 20-25% in two years,which supports a 20%+ UPS revenue growth in both 2018E and 2019E. Kstarhas also begun to ship its integrated UPS (combining self-made high-precisionair conditioner UPS battery into a cabinet) to IDC customers, which carries a 40%GPM, given its increased value-added. Kstar is confident of sustaining 35%+ GPM from UPS (despite rising raw materialcost) in the long-run due to continued product mix improvement (integrated UPS,large IDC). Promising inverter + booming EV demand. Kstar delivered a 100%+ YoY inverter revenue increase in 2017 due to its newpoverty reduction projects win from the government. Management indicatesthat the local government keeps building inverter stations in rural regions (eg. hills), which is viewed as a long-term electric infrastructure investment with 3-5years order visibility. Therefore, Kstar guides a 30-40% inverter revenue CAGR in2017-2020. Kstar also enjoys strong EV charging demand in China by leveragingits power efficient charging pile (featuring 96-98% conversion efficiency ratio vs. the industry average of 91-93%). The company’s EV charging revenue ramped to RMB150m in 2017 vs. RMB70m in 2016. Management is confident of posting100%+ YoY EV revenue growth in 2018 given the strong orders forecast fromkey customers. Kstar is also developing a vehicle carry charger with auto OEMs(Brilliance BMW, according to management), which will support its long-term EVgrowth. Valuation and risks. Our target price of RMB21 is still based on 30x one-year FW EPS, in line withthe Asian cloud computing peer average. Risks: slower EV/UPS demand andunfavorable FX.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-01-15 44.42 59.26 212.72% 45.68 2.84%
45.68 2.84%
详细
Connector BU (CBU) – multiple projects from iPhone Sunway highlights multiple growth drivers for CBUs, include: Penetrating into Lightning connectors: Sunway's Lightning connector hadbeen qualified by Apple, with shipments to start in 2018. Initially, it willserve as the third suppler (after Hon Hai and JAE), but Sunway is confidentit will gain shares in long run. Every new iPhone comes with threeLightning connectors in the box (one for power adapter cable, one for earpod cable, and one for audio adapter cable). Rising dual cam penetration on iPhone: Sunway expects all three newiPhones in 2H18will have dual cam (vs only two models with dual cam in2H17). Their camera related mechanical parts (dual cam supporting framesand VCM cases) will benefit from rising dual cam penetration Rising market shares in iPhone EMI shielding cases: Sunway got into thisbusiness since late 2015, and expects to win more EMI shielding case slotsin 2018or gain higher market shares in current slots.
九州通 医药生物 2018-01-15 18.50 12.96 62.61% 18.48 -0.11%
20.46 10.59%
详细
Maintaining FY17 guidance. Management continues to guide RMB73bn revenue for 2017, on track to reachthe RMB100bn target by 2019. Net profit / core net profit excluding extraordinaryitems in 2017 likely have reached RMB1.3-1.4bn / RMB1.0bn, respectively. Majordrivers include expanding network coverage, increasing product offerings, andbetter DS penetration. Going forward, the company expects to reach core netprofit of RMB1.3bn in 2018, while RMB1.4bn might be possible. Updates on DS / IDS and coverage. Indirect sales (IDS) now accounts for 42% of total sales, down 2% from 44% inOctober 2017. Medical institutions, drug stores, non-drug channels account for29%, 22%, 6-7% of total revenue, respectively. Medical institution sales grew atabove 30% rate for 2016-2017, while drug store sales grew at 31-32% in 2017 vs. 15-16% in 2016 due to two-invoice. On coverage expansion, the company's corestrategy is to acquire local distributors. During 9m17, Jointown acquired over 40distributors, though 80 more are needed to reach target coverage at the nationallevel. On average, each acquired distributor was valued at RMB20-30m with overRMB200-300m revenue and net profit of RMB4-5m, while Jointown typicallyacquires up to 60% of interest only. In addition, each acquired asset undergoesa 3-year transition period, where operational and financial IT systems need tointegrate with Jointown's, though financial statements are not consolidated yet. The practice would add some but not much profit growth to Jointown, as mostacquired assets were already clients, though volume typically will rise once ina cooperative relationship. As of now, Hubei / Henan / Beijing / Guangdongare Jointown's largest markets, with 2017 sales of RMB10bn/8-9bn/7bn/6bnrespectively. Margins and other key takeaways. On margins, sales to medical institutions typically lead to 7-8% GM, where tier2 and above are 9%, and below tier 2 have 7%. Chain drug stores typically have5-6% GM, and independent ones have a bit over 7%. Overall GM for Jointownis about 8% at present. The company is seeing worsening receivable days, onaverage about 10 days longer in 2017 compared to same period in 2016. For 2017,the major nonrecurring items were proceeds from land sales of a distributioncenter in Wuhan, estimated at RMB400m pre-tax and RMB360m after-tax.
上汽集团 交运设备行业 2018-01-15 33.66 23.75 58.86% 35.88 6.60%
37.66 11.88%
详细
SAIC Motor attended our Access China conference on 10 January. The followingare the key takeaways from investor meetings:- SAIC expects China passenger vehicle (PV) sales volume to grow by about 3-4%YoY in 2018 and commercial vehicle (CV) to decline by 6-8% YoY. In total, Chinavehicle sales volume will grow 2-3% YoY in 2018. The company thinks ASP willcontinue to go up given mix improvement. - SAIC expects the SUV segment to remain the growth driver and will make uphalf of total PV sales in the next 2-3 years. To benefit from the faster growth, thecompany will launch more SUVs in FY18E, and expects SUV to account for atleast 30% of its total sales. Meanwhile, management thinks price competition inthe SUV segment will intensify, especially for low-end SUVs. - SAIC sold 60k new energy vehicles (NEV) in 2017 and target to double that thisyear. To support this goal, the company will launch 7 NEV models, 4 of which willbe pure electric cars and 3 will be plug-in hybrids. SAIC will continue to be a localbrand leader in NEV technologies, such as for the battery management system,and will implement a flexible strategy in R&D while complying to the nationalstandard. Going forward, the company will also widen its battery supplier base. - SAIC is one of the biggest auto financing groups in China. By 2020E, itsauto financing business will probably contribute c. RMB6.5bn net profit (FY16:RMB3bn). The company's auto finance business is mainly operated by twosubsidiaries, namely the 100%-owned SAIC Finance and the SAIC GMAC JV. Thetotal loan balance at yearend 2017 is c. RMB200bn. - SAIC sold 520k local brand vehicles and expects to sell 650k-700k units in2018. The gross profit margin of the local brand is around 20%. Excluding R&D,operating profit improved in 9M17. The company expects profitability to continueto improve going forward. Deutsche Bank view. In 2017, SAIC achieved 6.8% YoY vehicle sales growth. Going forward, weexpect SAIC Motor's sales momentum to be sustained with further product miximprovement. On a high base, we envision a stable earnings growth trajectory forthe company, which should support its generous dividend payout. We maintain Hold on SAIC Motor because we think the current valuation is fair. Key downsiderisks include: 1) a weak reception for its new models from various SAIC brands;2) pricing pressure amid industry competition; and 3) worse-than- expected localbrand profitability. Key upside risks include: 1) better-than- expected sales volumeand pricing; and 2) better-than-expected local brand profitability.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2018-01-15 42.12 38.05 16.90% 43.79 3.96%
44.59 5.86%
详细
Maintain BUY and TP of CNY43. Hikvision attended DB's Access China Conference 2018 in Beijing on 10January 2018. We summarize the key takeaways in this note. Maintain BUY. Solid growth outlook with management guidance of 20-30% growth. Management maintained its prior guidance of 20-30% sales growth each yearin 2017/2018.The growth will stem from both the domestic and overseasmarket as the company continues to expand market share. Hikvision notedthat the rising network transmission bandwidth with the lowering price fordata transmission will continue enabling product upgrades with higherresolution and better image quality for the recorded image/video. Currently, weforecast Hikvision's revenue to grow 28%/27% in 2017/2018, respectively. Long term GPM target of over 40%; DB expect margin stabilization. Following years of margin decline, 1-3Q2017 GPM has reversed the trend. Management attributed to a) improving product mix with less contributionfrom low margin HDD sales, b) earlier payment discount to its suppliers, c)higher margin associated with AI products. We expect 4Q17 GPM to trenddown, as with historical pattern, given the rise in the low margin constructionrevenue before the year ends. Compared to management's long term grossmargin target of over 40%, we expect Hikvision's GPM to stabilize at 44% in2018/19, driven by rising contribution from solution business and AI products. AI: focus on applications with its "AI cloud" framework. Much discussions focused on Hikvision's exposure to AI and the competitivelandscape. The company believes the high price tag for AI-equipped productsremains the hurdle for a widespread adoption. In addition to algorithm,Hikvision focuses on the AI applications with a complete product line fromfront-end camera to back-end recorders/servers. The management's strategy inits "AI cloud" targets edge cloud to filter unnecessary data and provide fasterresponse given amount of image/video that each camera collects and the loadon the data transmission network. Currently, the AI equipment were sold in acomplete solution for mostly the public safety and transportation projectswithin the domestic China, to increase efficiency. On its AI exposure in theoverseas market, Hikvision won a smart city project in Singapore in 2017. Weestimate that AI products only has single digit contribution to Hikvision but therising adoption of AI will be both revenue and profit accretive. Valuation and risks. Hikvision remains one of the top buys in the Asian hardware space. Wereiterate our BUY rating with target price of CNY43, which is based on 30xFY2018E PE, supported by 34% profit CAGR in 2017-2019, and 36% averageROE. Risks: market share loss, weak demand in industry project orders.
恒瑞医药 医药生物 2018-01-15 74.27 34.20 -- 78.75 6.03%
89.23 20.14%
详细
Solid growth to continue with multiple catalysts ahead. The two key take-aways include 1) Hengrui already filed PD1 application in 4Q17. We believe the indications are cHL and esophageal cancer, which is earlier thanstreet consensus. This led to stock rally on Tuesday. Additionally the companyexpects approval in 2018; 2) Hengrui expects growth acceleration in 2018. Webelieve this might be a combination of delayed booking of export profit andother unspecified elements. For 2017, Hengrui reiterated 18-20% domestic salesgrowth and 20% exports growth. As for the products breakdown, traditionaloncology/ anesthetics/ contrast agents should reach 10-15%, 20% and over 30%growth respectively in 2017. In addition, lower pricing erosion could be witnessedin FY18 compared with FY17, as secondary negotiations and tenders are largelyconcluded. Apatinib growth likely to accelerate in 2018; 4Q17 hiccup. The company indicated that apatinib sales was below expectation in 2017,due to slowdown in 4Q17 stemming from NRDL settlement/ implementationdelays and budget controls. Hengrui remains optimistic on 2018 outlook drivenby reimbursement coverage. Despite the 36% nominal ASP cut of apatinib,management believes the upside could very well outweigh pricing erosion. Assuch, management welcomes negotiations for NRDL/ PRDL rolling inclusionfor key innovative products. In addition, indication expansion studies for livercancer and NSCLC are both progressing to final stages, with approval expectedin 2H18-2019. Updates on pipeline and other key takeaways. Four blockbusters are likely to be approved including nab-paclitaxel, 19K,pyrotinib and PD-1. Hengrui commented on bigger addressable market forpyrotinib vs. apatinib, on the back of longer treatment duration, without offeringany color on pricing strategy. On nab-paclitaxel, Hengrui and CSPC are both onpriority review list, with the possibility of obtaining approvals simultaneously. Asfor R&D spending, the ratio is likely to remain at current level, as expense increasewill synchronize with sales growth. On management incentive, the companyimplemented 3 rounds in 2014/16/17, with near-term plan of another round, using3m reserved shares.
国电南瑞 电力设备行业 2018-01-15 18.10 10.59 -- 18.42 1.77%
18.42 1.77%
详细
Total order intake grew more than 10% in 2017 to c.Rmb42bn and brought orderbacklog to c.Rmb30bn now (vs. c.Rmb25bn as end-16). This should supportearnings delivery in 2018, in which NARI targets 15-20% growth. Power grid automation: For full-year 2017, management estimates that thepower grid automation segment has grown c.20% yoy, in line with 9M17performance. This was primarily driven by a 70% increase in grid distributionautomation, riding on significant tender size expansion, while grid dispatch wasflat and substation automation recorded mild growth (c.3-5%). Looking forward,management believes that grid distribution and utilization automation businesslines will continue to see robust growth in next few years, as gridcos are nowincreasingly shifting investment towards smart automation equipment that arecloser to the end-user side. State Grid recently announced that it would double thedistribution automation centralized tender rounds to four in 2018. Grid dispatchand substation automation are expected to stay flat, until 2019-20 when thereplacement cycle kicks in. DC transmission and power electronics: Given that UHVDC project approvalis slowing down, management reckons the risk of potential UHVDC salescontraction this year, especially for Purui Engineering. However, overall powerelectronics business is expected to rise steadily, thanks to: 1) enhanced efforts ingrowing non-DC transmission sales (e.g., Unified Power Flow Control), which hasalready exceeded DC; and 2) increasing exports. The delay in Zhangbei FlexibleHVDC transmission project tender (to 1Q18 vs. planned 4Q17) leads to flat orderintake for NR Electric last year, but earnings delivery is still expected this year. Management targets Rmb2.5bn orders from this project, out of est. Rmb5bn totaltender size. Power communication and information: This segment recorded c.20% revenuegrowth in 2017. Management holds an optimistic view on its outlook and expectsits growth to further accelerate in next few years, given that State Grid plans toinvest Rmb50bn in power communication by 2020, doubling from Rmb25bn now.
宇通客车 交运设备行业 2018-01-11 23.97 19.41 3.35% 23.99 0.08%
24.68 2.96%
详细
Yutong sold 67,568 units of buses in 2017 (-5% YoY), including c.25k units ofnew energy (NEV) buses. Among the total NEV bus sales volume, c.90% waspublic buses. According to Yutong, it recorded over 10% YoY NEV bus volumegrowth in 4Q17. However, pricing has been trending lower in 4Q17. Management expects the company to achieve a 27-28% market share in NEVbus market in 2017 (33% in total bus market including conventional buses), aslight YoY increase with industry NEV bus sales declining more than 10% YoY. For 2018E, the company believes it will continue to outgrow the overall marketand remains positive on NEV bus sales in 1Q18 given the delay of the subsidy cut. The company will strive to maintain the relatively stable profitability of its NEVbuses and expects to partially mitigate the negative impact from the reduced NEVbus subsidy through raising net-subsidy selling price and supplier cost reduction(i.e. battery cost). Management comments that about 60% of the public transportation bus soldin 2017 were NEV buses. Despite the cuts in NEV bus subsidy in 2018-20, thecompany believes that the public transportation field would still be government’smain focus to promote the country’s vehicle electrification in future. Yutong believes the recently announced new subsidy policy provides greatopportunities to industry leaders with advanced technology, such as Yutong, tofurther gain market share in the NEV bus market. It has been investing in NEVfield for many years already and its NEV products offer better user experience andlower full life cycle maintenance costs compared to competitors. Deutsche Bank view - maintain Buy on increasing contribution from NEV bus. Despite the impact on margin due to possibly lower subsidies in 2018, we believethat major NEV makers such as Yutong can probably mitigate this in the long runby lowering production costs (e.g. battery and scale effects). Maintain Buy givenour optimism on Yutong's increasing profit contribution from NEV bus segment. Our target price is based on 14x FY18E P/E (unchanged), c.30% above Yutong's mid-cycle P/E of 11x to reflect our optimism on increasing profit contribution fromthe new energy bus. Key downside risks include: 1) unexpected changes in theChinese government's new energy bus subsidy policy; 2) weaker-than-expectednew energy bus demand; and 3) market share loss in new energy buses.
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