1H18业绩超市场预期安徽合力公布1H18业绩:营业收入50.38亿元,同比增长23.2%; 归属母公司净利润3.41亿元,同比增长52.4%,对应每股盈利0.46元,超市场预期。 叉车销量快速增长,毛利率保持稳定。1H18公司销售叉车6.62万台,同比增长19%,带动公司收入快速增长。上半年公司综合毛利率为19.3%,同比略降0.4ppt。分季度看,1Q18、2Q18公司毛利率分别为18.5%/20.0%,2Q18毛利率环比改善1.4ppt,体现了公司优秀的成本控制能力。 期间费用率持续改善。公司规模效应及精益管理效应体现,1H18公司销售费用率、管理费用率较去年同期分别下降0.3/0.8ppt。理财收益增加,1H18公司投资收益为4,383万元,同比增长189.4%,因调整控股销售公司激励机制对少数股东损益的影响趋于平缓,1H18公司少数股东损益为4,399万元,同比降低1.4%。1H18公司净利润率为6.8%,同比提高1.3ppt。 经营性现金流有待改善。1H18公司经营活动现金净流入1.4亿元,同比降低54.9%,主要是应收及预付款项增长。1H18公司应收账款、预付款项余额为10.4/1.4亿元,较年初分别增长17.3%/86.4%。 发展趋势进占泰国市场,海外拓展再进一步。2017年公司海外收入为13.2亿元,同比增长19.7%,海外收入占比达16%。公司现已在海外80多个国家建立代理网络,产品远销140多个国家和地区,欧美高端市场销售占比过半。近日公司同合力进出口公司等共同出资不超过泰铢1亿元,设立合力东南亚(泰国)中心,立足泰国市场,增强在东南亚地区销售力度,进一步加大海外市场拓展力度。 盈利预测我们维持2018/19e 净利润预测5.35/6.34亿元不变。 估值与建议公司当前股价对应18/19年13.4/11.3倍P/E。维持推荐评级和目标价12.80元,对应18/19年18/15倍P/E,对比当前股价有32.2%上行空间。 风险中美贸易摩擦影响叉车出口。

1H15 results largely in line。 In 1H15, revenue rose 8.01% YoY to Rmb1.922bn while netprofit attributable to shareholders climbed 25.38% YoY toRmb302mn, or EPS of Rmb0.36, in line with expectation. Revenue from industrial businesses increased 24% YoY. Revenue from medicine business rose 42% mainly contributedby the three IPO-funded projects in Taizhou base; pesticidebusiness went up 26%; fine & functional chemicals dropped15% due to the declining prices and falling shipment at Dezhoubase. The three major expenses rose 19% YoY:sales/financial expenses -13%/16% YoY due to lower freightrate and incremental FX income); G&A expenses +23% YoY dueto higher equity incentive cost and employees’ paycheck. Trends to watch。 Better internationalization to boost BU construction. Lianhe aims to build an international professional operation andmanagement team and will seek global M&A opportunities. Thebuilding of excellent operation & management system shouldhelp enhance its capability in production management andsupply chain management. Construction of three bases in 2015. Yancheng and Dezhoubases are likely to acquire national qualification for pesticideproduction. Earnings revisions。 The company expected 1~3Q15 net profit attributable toshareholder to rise 10~30% YoY. Maintain 2015/16e EPSforecast at Rmb0.84/Rmb1.09. Valuation and recommendation。 The stock is trading at 26x/20x 2015/16e P/E. Keep TP atRmb26.88. Maintain BUY. Risks。 Project construction and operation miss expectation.

Earnings likely to surge 91% YoY in 1H15。 The company preannounced that 1H15 revenue would drop 14.67% YoY to Rmb489mn while net profit would surge91.12% YoY to Rmb36.14mn or Rmb0.112/sh, largely in line, mainly driven by the consolidation of Shanghai Yuefeng. Trends to watch。 ESOP shows confidence. The company plans to launch an ESOP with no more than Rmb100mn, which will be dividedinto three classes. The Rmb10mn secondary B-class shares will be acquired by >400 employees and Rmb40mnsecondary C-class shares by Kingking Group. The two classes offer guarantees for A-class, showing confidence. Steady transformation into cosmetics; consolidation of acquired project boosted earnings. Kingkinginvested in Hangzhou UCO, Guangzhou Ridgepole and Shanghai Yuefeng Cosmetics (whose consolidation in 1H15contributed earnings growth). As a holding company, it will continue to strengthen development and promotion of itsproprietary brands, integrate resources and explore cooperation opportunities with domestic & overseas brands anddistribution channels. Rare internet-based cosmetics business. Kingking holds a 37% stake in Hangzhou UCO, one of the fastestgrowing players and most visible beneficiaries in the internet cosmetics value chain. The rapid growth of its onlinecosmetics distribution business should ensure exponential revenue growth. By selling a 37% stake to Kingking, UCO willlikely gain chances to consolidate resources along the value chain and increase the success rate of cosmetics brandcultivation, positive to profit margin and earnings growth. Valuation and recommendation。 We tentatively ignore the external expansion expectations as demand for candles and oil products declined. We cut2015/16e EPS by 3%/3% to Rmb0.25/Rmb0.32. We are bullish on Kingking’s role as the rare internet-basedcosmetics play, maintain BUY. The stock is now trading at 60x/48x 2015/16e P/E. Considering the cut in earningsforecast and falling market valuation range, we trim TP by 20% to Rmb20, implying 63x 2016e P/E. Risks。 Expansion of cosmetics business misses expectation; falling average valuation.

Earnings forecasts in line with expectationsJiangling Motors (JMC) preannounced 1H15 net profit ofRmb1.08bn (-7.1% YoY), in line with expectations. Trends to watchIn 1H15, light-duty trucks (LDT) stood out, while SUVsand pickups saw marked declines. In 1H15, JMC's salesvolume totaled 133,000 units, largely flat YoY. Sales of LDTs rose23.7% YoY to 60,000 units in 1H15, thanks to vehicle upgradesto meet China IV Emission Standards, but its growth may slow in2H15 due to a high base. Because of the weakening marketconditions, the sales of Yusheng SUV/pickups fell by29.0%/18.0% YoY, weighing on 1H15 earnings. Competition in the market for European-brandedlight-duty buses intensified; watch out for new productsin 2016. In 1H15, the sales of the Transit dipped 0.8% YoY to33,000 units, due to weak macroeconomic conditions andintensifying competition. JMC may launch the next generation ofTransit models in 1Q16. We expect JMC's sales to recover in themarket for European-branded light-duty buses in 2016. The Ford Everest to launch soon; watch the N330'sperformance in the urban SUV market. In the near term,Ford’s SUV models that will launch in late-3Q15 could become aspotlight in 4Q15. Urban SUVs, Yusheng’s N330, may come tomarket in 2H16 and become a driving force behind the ramp upof SUV sales. Valuation and recommendationWe cut our 2015/16e earnings forecast by18.8%/28.5% to Rmb2.16bn/3.02bn, considering thecompetitive pressure the Transit is facing and elevated R&Dexpenses. We cut our TP for JMC-A/B from Rmb60/HK$60to Rmb42/HK$42, implying 12x/10x 2016e P/E. DowngradeJMC-A to HOLD for the moment and maintain our BUYrating for JMC-B.