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鹏辉能源 电子元器件行业 2019-12-02 22.50 -- -- 24.80 10.22% -- 24.80 10.22% -- 详细
1.事件 公司董事会审议通过了《关于提请股东大会批准延长公开发行可转换 公司债券方案决议有效期及授权有效期的议案》,同意将本次发行决议有效期和授权有效期,自前述有效期届满之日起均延长十二个月。 2.我们的分析与判断广东正中珠江会计师事务所事件拖慢可转债进程, 延长有效期或将保障可转债顺利落地。 2018年 11月,公司发布可转债预案( 有效期 12个月,经股东大会审议通过之日起) , 并于 2018年 12月临时股东大会审议通过了《关于公开发行可转换公司债券预案的议案》 。 2019年 1月,公司可转债申请获得证监会受理。 2019年 5月,公司收到《中国证监会行政许可申请中止审查通知书》 ,主要原因是公司可转债事项的审计机构广东正中珠江会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)在从事与公司无关的业务中涉嫌违法违规被中国证监会立案调查。 2019年 7月,公司收到《中国证监会行政许可申请恢复审查通知书》 , 恢复对公司可转债行政许可申请的审查。 为了保障可转债稳妥和平稳的落地,公司拟延长可转债方案决议和授权有效期。 拟发行可转债募集资金不超过 8.9亿元,新增锂离子电池 2GWh 产能。 公司在乘用车、商用车及客车领域,已积累了一批优质客户,包括上汽通用五菱、东风股份等。 目前,公司与上汽通用五菱、东风汽车形成的年意向性潜在需求超 20亿元, 产能急需扩大。 公司本次可转债拟募集资金不超过 8.9亿元,主要用于常州锂离子电池及系统智能工厂(一期)建设项目、新型高性能锂离子电池的研发设备购置项目, 达产后预计将新增锂离子电池产能 2GWh,新增营业收入 16亿元( 0.8元/Wh) 。项目预计将于 2021年左右稳步达产, 将为公司长期销量的增长提供保障。 TWS 耳机快速崛起,公司扣式电池深度受益。 苹果 TWS 耳机成为爆款后,带动整个 TWS 耳机市场快速崛起, 根据 Counterpoint Research, 2018年全球真无线耳机出货量约 4600万台,预计到 2020年全球真无线耳机市场出货量将达到 1.29亿台。 公司深耕消费类数码领域, 目前 TWS 耳机电池主要客户有 JBL、佳禾智能等,未来出货量有望快速提升。 3.投资建议我们预计公司 2019-2021年营业收入为 38.41亿元、 50.28亿元、 65.12亿元, EPS 为 1.26元、 1.69元、 2.17元,对应当前股价 PE 为 17.2倍、 12.8倍、 10.0倍。 公司在消费锂电、 动力电池、储能等领域开拓顺利,可转债有望助力锂离子电池业务快速扩张, 估值与可比公司相比具有优势( PEG<1), 首次覆盖给予公司“推荐”评级。 4.风险提示1) 锂电池需求不及预期的影响; 2) 可转债推进进度不及预期的风险。
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泸州老窖 食品饮料行业 2019-11-19 84.73 122.00 47.72% 88.56 4.52% -- 88.56 4.52% -- 详细
New distribution network starting to reap benefitsSince 2015, Laojiao has taken four years to restructure its distribution network, providingstronger market support for its distributors and restoring its high-end brand image. NowLaojiao has around 3,000distributors with over 8,000of its own salespeople. Its brandvalue rose by 40% yoy to US$5.3bn in 2019, according to Brand Finance. Backed withthis strong distribution network, we expect Laojiao’s channel reforms to start to bear fruitand its sales to grow at a 19% CAGR in FY18–21F. We also expect its high S&Dexpenses ratio of 26% in 2018to gradually fall back by 5%pts to 21% in 2021F, leadingto OPM expansion of 8.4%pts from 34.2% in FY18to 42.4% in FY21F.Product portfolio premiumization to capture consumption upgradeLaojiao’s product structure has been continually been upgraded. Its high-end baijiu (i.e.Cellar 1573) sales grew rapidly by 37% yoy to Rmb6.4bn, accounting for 50% of baijiusales in FY18; while its middle-range baijiu was up by 28% yoy to Rmb3.7bn, contributing22% of sales. Laojiao has gradually lifted its retail selling price (RSP) YTD because ofstrong market demand and low channel inventory. According to JD.com, its RSP formajor products has risen by 7% to 38% YTD, and Laojiao has successfully captured theconsumption upgrade trend.ASP hike could be a near-term catalystLaojiao’s price strategy is closely pegged with that of Wuliangye, which successfullyincreased its ex-factory price by 12.6% through launching the 8th generation of Wuliangyein June 2019. We expect Laojiao to follow Wuliangye, increasing its ex-factory price ofCellar 1573in the near future. Meanwhile, due to a supply shortage of premium baijiu inthe RSP range of Rmb1,000–2,000/bottle, we expect Cellar 1573to ramp up by 7%volume CAGR and 15% ASP CAGR in FY18–21F.Initiate coverage with an Add rating and DCF-based TP of Rmb122We initiate coverage on Laojiao with an ADD rating and DCF-based TP of Rmb122(WACC: 9.6%), implying 38x/31x FY19F/20F P/E. Laojiao is currently trading at 27xFY19F P/E, 2.0s.d. above its historical average of 19x since its listing in 2009. In thepast, Laojiao’s valuation was largely in line with, or slightly below, the industry average.We believe that Laojiao deserves to trade at premium vs. its peers owing to a potentialASP hike for its super-premium Cellar 1573products and strong sales growthmomentum, boosted by its profit-sharing distribution model. Downside risks are asfollows: 1) over 67% of its sales are derived from its top five customers, which indicatesthe key distributors have strong bargaining power and influence on Laojiao’s distributionchannels, which might be a tail risk in the long term; and 2) a macroeconomic slowdownmay affect super-premium baijiu consumption.
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贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2019-11-19 1225.12 1328.00 13.50% 1241.61 1.35% -- 1241.61 1.35% -- 详细
Modest sales growth in 3Q19, but net profit growth in lineMoutai’s baijiu sales grew 14% yoy in 3Q19, a bit slower than the 18% yoy in 1H19. Butnet profit grew 17% yoy in 3Q19, driven by a continuous mix upgrade, an increase indirect sales, and better control of expenses. Moutai’s 9M19baijiu sales grew by 17% yoyto Rmb61bn, and its net profit was up by 23% yoy to Rmb30.5bn, in line with ourexpectations. Moutai’s distribution network changes are still ongoing; for the domesticdistributors channel, Moutai has cut 616Moutai brand distributors year to date to 2,401distributors; and the direct sales channel build-up is on track. The direct salescontribution improved to 7% in 3Q19from 4.1% in 1H19. We expect Moutai to accelerateits supply volume to direct sales channels in 4Q19and forecast that its FY19F net profitwill grow 23% yoy.Continually improving margin owing to a product structure upgradeMoutai’s 9M19gross profit margin was 91.5%, up by 0.4%pt, due to a product structureupgrade. Its sales tax was down by 2%pts to 13%. The S&D expenses ratio fell by1.2%pts to 4.3%, because of a decrease in the promotion of the Series brand. Moutai’snet profit margin improved by 2.6%pts to 50% in 9M19. With direct sales improving andcontinuous upgrading of its product structure, we expect Moutai’s profitability to furtherimprove in FY20F.Controlled price hikes to stimulate consumptionMoutai had direct sales of Rmb3.1bn in 9M19; its sales contribution improved to 5.1% in9M19, from 4.1% in 1H19. In Sep 2019, Moutai increased its direct sales collaborationwith hypermarket and ecommerce channels, supplying 600t of Moutai liquor to threehypermarkets – Wumart, Sun Art and China Resources – and 400t to two onlineplatforms – Suning and Tmall. Moutai also announced the advance supply of 4Q19volume to its distributors. These actions have had a positive impact in bringing downMoutai’s first-tier wholesaler price in the distributors channel from a peak of Rmb2,700per bottle to Rmb2200–2300per bottle now. In 2020, Chinese New Year will be in Jan,slightly earlier than last year. To satisfy high customer demand and stabilize its wholesaleprice, we expect Moutai to execute its 1Q20supply volume ahead of schedule, possiblyin 4Q19, which will benefit its Q419F sales growth.Maintain Add with an unchanged DCF-based TP of Rmb1,328We maintain our Add rating, because of strong earnings growth, driven by Moutai’schannel reforms and a product mix upgrade. Moutai is currently trading at 34x FY19F, 1.7s.d. above its historical average P/E of 19x since listing. Potential positive catalystsincluding a potential ex-factory price hike in 2020, and margin improvement from theincrease in direct sales. Downside risks include a reduction in high-end baijiuconsumption because of the worsening economic environment.
中再资环 社会服务业(旅游...) 2019-11-11 5.19 -- -- 5.31 2.31%
5.31 2.31% -- 详细
1.事件公司发布2019 三季报,前三季度实现营业收入24.31 亿元,同比增长4.14%;实现归母净利润3.21 亿元,同比增长34.07%;实现扣非归母净利润3.18 亿元,同比增长56.47%。加权平均净资产收益率为20.44%,较去年同期增长7.83pct。 2.我们的分析与判断毛利率净利率明显提升,经营业绩增长迅速。2019 年前三季度毛利率为32.3%,同比增长1.13pct。期间费用率为12.74%,同比减少0.24pct,其中销售/管理(含研发)/财务费用率分别为2.34/5.10/5.30%,同比变动0.44/-1.36/0.68pct。公司通过优异的管理能力压低期间费用支出,实现净利率13.39%,同比增长2.48pct。 回收网点遍布全国,传统主业仍有巨大增长空间。公司控股股东中国再生资源开发有限公司是我国最大的专业性再生资源回收利用企业,在全国25 个省建立了七大区域回收网络,拥有近50 家分子公司、70 多家分拣中心、5000 多个回收网点。随着垃圾分类政策在各地推行,回收再生市场渠道逐步规范,公司产量增长仍有巨大空间,其向终端渠道的渗透程度也有望更加深入。 外延扩张切入新领域,盈利能力进一步增强。公司拟以现金和发行股份等方式收购淮安华科13.29%的股权,山东环科100%股权,以及森泰环保100%股权,切入危废处置、工业废水处理等领域。 通过外延扩张将与公司原有的园区固废处置业务产生协同效应,进一步增强公司的盈利能力。 3.投资建议公司是垃圾回收再生处理处置龙头,在全国25 省设立了5000多个回收网点,具有丰富的电子垃圾回收拆解经验。切入危废处置、工业废水处理领域,与公司原有的园区固废处置业务产生协同效应,进一步增强公司的盈利能力。我们预计公司2019、2020、2021年EPS 分别为0.30 元、0.35 元、0.40 元,对应当前股价的PE 为17.2X、14.8X、12.9X。首次覆盖给予“推荐”评级。 4.风险提示市场竞争加剧的风险,拆解成本上升的风险,公司经营发生合规问题的风险,行业补贴政策变化的风险。
三一重工 机械行业 2019-11-06 14.08 -- -- 15.07 7.03%
15.62 10.94% -- 详细
事件 公司发布2019 年三季报,2019 年前三季度实现营收586.91 亿元,同比增长42.88%;实现归母净利润91.59 亿元,较上年同期上升87.56%;第三季度实现营收153.05 亿元,同比增长18.15%,实现归母净利润24.11 亿元,同比增长61.32%。 我们的分析与判断公司产品具有核心竞争力,营收净利润均高增长。受国内基础设施建设、环境保护力度加强、设备更新需求增长、人工替代效应等因素影响,工程机械销量持续快速增长。1-9 月,纳入统计的25家主机制造企业,共计销售各类挖掘机械产品179195 台,同比涨幅14.7%。报告期内,公司挖掘机械、混凝土机械、起重机械、桩工机械、路面机械等产品竞争力及市场份额持续提升。受益于工程机械销量增加,公司的营业收入、营业利润双双实现高速增长。 盈利能力持续增强,资产质量保持良好。受益于公司高水平的经营质量,公司盈利水平大幅提升,2019 年前三季度,公司销售毛利率为32.54%,同比提升1.38 个百分点;同期销售净利率为16.03%,同比提升3.7 个百分点;加权平均净资产收益率为24.03%,较去年同期提升6.6 个百分点,为历史最高水平,大幅高于行业平均值。 近年来公司大力推进各项经营能力建设,取得了显著成果,总体经营水平为历史最好。2019 年前三季度公司经营活动净现金流94.45 亿元,同比增长8.16%;应收账款周转率从上年同期的2.12次提升至2.6 次,存货周转率从上年同期的3.18 提升至3.53。公司资产结构进一步优化,截至 2019 年9 月30 日资产负债率为50.76%,为历史最低水平,公司经营情况稳健。 推进数字化、国际化战略,政策托底未来销量。报告期内,公司持续推进数字化、智能化战略,人均产值处于全球工程机械行业领先水平,在印尼、印度、欧洲、美国等大部分海外区域都实现了较快的增长。受益于“专项债”通知发布、《交通强国建设纲要》和“美丽乡村建设”等政策的影响,我们预计基建投资增速有望进一步提升,对工程机械销量拉动有积极影响。由于无锡高架桥坍塌事故,政府加大了对路面车辆超载的审查力度,混凝土车等工程车辆的新增需求或将大幅增加;同时环保淘汰力度的加大也会对相关工程机械的销售有拉动作用。我们预计四季度工程机械销售能维持良好的增长趋势,公司全年业绩有望维持较高增长。 投资建议考虑到公司在工程机械行业的高市场占有率、目前行业景气程度及公司盈利能力,我们预计公司业绩持续稳定增长。公司前瞻性布局数字化和国际化战略,实现数字化转型促进产能释放,我们预计2019-2021 年公司可实现归母净利润108.0/127.4/146.6 亿元,对应2019-2021 年PE 为10.9/9.3/8.1 倍,维持“推荐”评级。 风险提示工程机械行业波动风险,国际化拓展不及预期风险、市场竞争加剧风险。
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伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2019-11-05 29.50 34.50 14.05% 30.06 1.90%
30.68 4.00% -- 详细
Stronger-than-expected 3Q19resultsYili’s revenue grew 10.8% and 12.6% yoy in 3Q19and 9M19. We estimate that salesvolume grew 6–7% yoy in 9M19, and a mix upgrade drove up the ASP by 4%. Yili alsoreduced its pricing promotion in 9M19, which led to ASP improvement of c.2%. Its grossmargin expanded 0.3ppt yoy to 35.5% in 3Q19, since the mix upgrade and promotionreduction fully offset the raw milk price increase. Yili said the raw milk price was up 8.5%yoy in 3Q19and 7% yoy in 9M19, due to strong downstream dairy demand. Yilicontinued to gain market share in 9M19, gaining a 2ppt yoy market share for liquid milk to38.8% by end-3Q19. According to ACNielsen data, the industry volume growth of liquidmilk was 2% in 9M19, with normal temperature milk up 3% and low temperature productsdown 2.5%. We now expect Yili’s revenue to grow 12.8%/11.4% yoy in FY19F/FY20F.Mix upgrade to continueYili continued product premiumization in 3Q19, and sales of high-end products continuedto grow faster. Sales of its high-end UHT milk, Santine, and room temperature yoghurt,Ambrosial, grew 17% and 17.8% yoy in 9M19(3Q19: high-teens and 15% yoy growth).Sales of high-end infant milk powder increased 28.6% yoy in 8M19. Yili launched dreamcover organic Santine milk with protein content of 3.8g in Sep, and will launch fat freedream cover soon. It will also launch new low-temperature products in 4Q19F. We expectlow temperature sales growth to return to positive yoy in FY20F, from -1% yoy in 9M19,and Yili to continue to upgrade its product mix to drive up margins in 4Q19F and FY20F.Exploring new business opportunitiesYili set up healthy drinks and cheese business units in 2H18, and launched a soy milkdrink last year. Management expects soy milk sales to grow in the mid-teens yoy inFY19F to Rmb500m–600m. Children’s cheese launched early this year received positivemarket feedback. This month, Yili launched mineral water products and will expand itswater capacity in FY20–21F. Currently, Yili has c.2,000distributors for its healthy drinks,half of them existing dairy distributors and the remaining half new.Promotion levels to fall graduallyBecause of a reduction in promotion and good operating leverage, its distributionexpenses ratio was down by 2.4%pts yoy in 3Q19, which completely offset the increasein the G&A expenses ratio of 1.3%pts, leading to OPM improvement of 0.8%ppt yoy to9.6% in 3Q19. Management expects the raw milk price to increase 5–6% yoy in FY20F,which should lead to a reduction in promotion levels. We expect Yili to maintain stableOPM yoy in FY20F.Maintain Add with new DCF-based TP of Rmb34.5We fine tuned our FY19–21F earnings forecasts by 1.5%/0.9%/-2.7% to reflect bettermargin assumptions and expenses related to Yili’s restricted share plan. We maintain ourAdd rating, since we like Yili’s product premiumization and lower promotion level. Apositive catalyst is stronger margin expansion owing to better control of expenses. Andthe main risk is higher-than-expected raw milk prices.
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金隅集团 非金属类建材业 2019-11-04 3.30 3.97 21.41% 3.41 3.33%
3.41 3.33% -- 详细
One-off loss of about Rmb380m in 3Q193Q19net profit looked unexciting at Rmb671m, a decline of 3.2% yoy. BBMG recorded aone-off loss about Rmb380m during the quarter. According to management, the one-offdebt restructuring loss was caused by the acquisition of Tianjin Building Materials. TheCompany mentioned that the loss is non-recurring after clearing the legacy issues ofTianjin Building Materials.Higher gross profit per tonne offset weaker sales volumeCement and clinker sales volume was 31.6m tonnes, down 5.8% yoy. This was partlyaffected by the production suspension since mid-September because of environmentalprotection measures and the National Day holiday. However, the impact was offset by11.7% growth in gross profit per tonne to Rmb115, thanks to a 7.3% increase yoy in ASP.Lackluster property presale performance but should not be asurpriseThe Company recorded property contract sales of Rmb13.7bn in 9M2019. Managementsaid the original full-year target of Rmb35bn would be difficult to achieve given thecurrent policy environment. This should not be a surprise, in our view, as the Companyalready hinted that it would be a challenge to meet the full-year guidance during the 1H19results conference call in August. Currently, BBMG is aiming to reach Rmb30bn inproperty contract sales for the full year.Cement segment performance to remain solid in 4Q19Since the production suspension in north China was lifted after mid-October, theCompany has already seen demand recovery, and it expects overall demand in 4Q toremain solid. In terms of ASP, the latest price is about Rmb20/tonne higher than the priceduring the same period last year. The Company’s cement and clinker sales volume grew5.7% yoy to 81.5m tonnes. Management believes the outlook for 2020remainsencouraging on the back of solid demand from infrastructure projects.Maintain ADD9M19recurring net profit covered 82.8% of our full-year projection. We believe theforecast is achievable after taking the low season factor into consideration. We maintainour net profit forecasts and ADD rating. Our target price of Rmb3.97also remainsunchanged (50% premium to our H-share target price after taking the historical A-H pricedifference into account, methodology unchanged).
晨光文具 造纸印刷行业 2019-10-31 50.51 -- -- 51.28 1.52%
51.28 1.52% -- 详细
1.事件摘要公司于2019年10月25日发布2019年三季度报告。2019年前三季度,公司实现营业总收入79.47亿元,同比增长29.78%;实现归母净利润8.02亿元,同比增长28.36%;实现归属扣非净利润7.61亿元,较上年同期增长32.88%。经营现金流量净额为6.78亿元,较去年同期增加37.70%。 2.我们的分析与判断 (一)开学季与科力普推动规模增长,产品结构优化增厚业绩2019年前三季度,公司共计实现总营业收入79.47亿元,较去年同期增加18.23亿元,同比增长29.78%。其中,2019Q1/Q2/Q3公司单季度分别实现总营业收入23.56/24.83/31.08亿元,较去年同期分别增加5.15/5.37/7.72亿元,实现同比增长28.00%/27.57%/33.02%,三季度贡献年初至今营收增量的39.10%。相较于19年上半年公司营收同比增长27.57%的增速而言,公司第三季度规模增长受益于开学季以及科力普的持续高增长影响提速明显。 2019年前三季度,公司实现归母净利润8.02亿元,较上年同期增加1.77亿元,同比增长28.36%;实现归母扣非净利润7.61亿元,较上年同期增加1.88亿元,同比增长32.88%。其中,公司三季度实现归母净利润3.31亿元,较去年同期增加0.81亿元,同比增长32.22%;实现归母扣非净利润3.33亿元,较上年同期增加0.63亿元,同比增长43.89%。公司三季度贡献年初至今归母净利润增量的45.76%,我们预计是由于毛利率水平较高的学生文具在19年第三季度受益于开学季的积极影响规模提升明显,从而增厚公司三季度业绩表现。公司前三季度非经常性损益共计4131.68万元,其中计入当期损益的政府补助贡献3889.61万元,占非经常性损益总额94.14%。 2019年前三季度,公司经营性现金流净额实现6.78亿元,同比增加1.86亿元,同比增长37.70%,主要是受益于公司对销售、采购等经营活动的现金流管理增强,尤其是应收款项的管理得当所致。 (二)综合毛利率上浮1.33pct,期间费用率增长0.39pct截止2019年前三季度,公司的综合毛利率为26.79%,较去年同期上浮1.33个百分点,其中公司三季度单季度综合毛利率27.71%,较去年同期25.22%大幅提升2.49个百分点,相较于上半年综合毛利率26.20%的水平进一步提升。公司综合毛利率的提升预计主要是由于毛利率相对较高的学生文具在三季度受益于开学季的正面影响实现高增长,并在科力普大办公业务板块的毛利率保持平稳的情况下,拉动公司综合毛利率持续增长。 截止2019年三季度末,公司的期间综合费用率为14.53%,相比上年同期增加0.39个百分点。其中,销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为8.82%/4.45%/1.35%/-0.09%,较去年同期分别增加-0.34/-0.06/0.78/0.02个百分点。我们认为公司销售费用率以及管理费用率减少的原因可能是由于公司推广效率及销售人员效率提升导致销售以及管理费用的增长不及公司规模增长所致,至于研发费用率的大幅增长主要是公司加大研发方面投入以及上海安硕的研发费用并入导致研发费用额大幅提升所致,而财务费用率的提升主要是由于上海安硕增加1.71亿元银行短期贷款导致利息支出增加,使得财务费用率略有增长。 (三)办公直销业务持续高增长,聚焦万亿级别大办公市场公司的主营业态为书写工具和办公文具产品的销售,拥有独立完整的从品牌、产品设计研发、原辅料采购、产品制造、供应链管理、营销网络管理到仓储物流的健全经营体系。公司一方面在不断巩固自身传统文具制造业务,另一方面还积极开拓了TO B 的办公直销业务。 晨光科力普作为公司办公直销业务的运作主体在促进传统书写工具和办公文具产品销售的同时,还通过扩充产品品类与服务项目有效地覆盖了大型企事业单位包括办公文具及办公耗材在内的一站式采购需求。截止2019年上半年,公司在全国已投入运营5个中心仓,覆盖华北、华南、华东、华西、华中五大区域,并且在上海、北京、广州、深圳、天津等9大城市自建配送队伍提高配送效率,从而有效地提高客户体验。与此同时,公司还通过新设分公司和办事处的方式深度挖掘各省市内的潜在客户,努力拓宽公司的办公渠道网络。针对个别重点市场,公司优先为其配置优质资源,努力做到为客户提供更优质服务。近年来,公司凭借出色的服务与过硬的产品质量已经成功入围了多家政府客户、央企客户和金融企业的采购白名单,大大提高了自身在大办公市场中的占有率。 (四)顺应个性化需求崛起之势,借助线下门店进军精品文创市场近年来,个性化需求的崛起对公司原先定位偏向传统的文具产品造成了一定冲击,为了应对来自需求端的改变,公司已经开始进行转型升级,从单纯生产标准化的文具产品转变为打造高品质精品文创产品的品牌零售商。对于此业务,公司主要借助晨光生活馆与九木杂物社的线下门店推广自身与各大IP 的联名产品以及具备设计感与创意的文创产品。截至目前,公司仍在通过不断优化产品结构以及运营升级的方式对主营精品文具的晨光生活馆进行调整,并已成功实现减亏,预计短期内或将全面实现扭亏为盈;至于全面发展主营精品杂货的九木杂货社,公司对其的定位是进一步拓展公司在精品文创市场占有率,从而提升公司在蓬勃向上发展的文创市场中的品牌影响力。截至2019年上半年,公司在全国拥有300家零售大店,其中晨光生活馆129家,九木杂物社171家(直营114家,加盟57家),较2018年末生活馆减少11家,九木杂物社增加56家,其中直营增加27家,加盟增加29家。在加速展店的同时,公司不忘持续提升内部管理能力,努力提升可比门店的运营效率,早日实现全面扭亏。 另外在IT 方面,公司的区域仓库WMS 系统现已正式上线运行,借助此系统公司总部与区域仓库间的调拨转货变得畅通无阻,大大提升了运营效率;并且,九木杂物社的微信小程序已正式上线,不仅为九木杂物社的会员提供了线上购物的渠道,还使得公司能够享受到线上营销带来的高转化率。 3.投资建议在传统文具制造板块受益于公司转型升级聚焦精品文创市场而重拾增长的同时,公司的办公直销业务持续保持高增速增长。未来预计在公司“一体两翼”的发展策略引导下,在线下门店保持扩张以及科力普不断扩充品类与客户的前提下,公司规模与业绩有望继续保持高速增速。考虑到公司在传统文具领域的品牌优势、在大办公领域的品质服务优势以及精品文创市场的高成长性等优势, 我们预计公司2019E/2020E/2021E 年分别实现营收110.94/140.25/169.58亿,实现归母净利润10.37/12.63/15.10亿元,对应PS3.94/3.12/2.58倍,对应PE42/35/29倍,维持“推荐评级”。 4.风险提示办公直销市场竞争加剧的风险;线下零售受其他业态分流的风险。
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海螺水泥 非金属类建材业 2019-10-28 42.34 45.40 -- 46.42 9.64%
47.90 13.13% -- 详细
3Q2019results slightly exceeded market expectations3Q2019recurring net profit was Rmb8,349m, up 8% yoy. Reported net profit for 9M2019was Rmb23.8bn (up 15% yoy), equivalent to 76% of the full-year market consensusforecast. As 4Q is usually the peak season of the year, the Street may revise up itsprojections moderately after the results announcement.Overall performance remained solidRevenue grew 22.3% yoy in 3Q2019to Rmb38.8bn, while gross profit rose 6.1% yoy toRmb12.3bn. Revenue growth was much faster than gross profit growth because of therapid growth in the trading business, which had an insignificant profit contribution. Grossprofit per tonne for cement and clinker was about Rmb148in 3Q2019, down Rmb7yoy.The mild weakness was largely offset by sales volume growth of about 10% yoy forcement and clinker. This suggests the Company gained market share, as growth in thewhole country was in the mid to high single digits.Cement price hike in 4Q expected to support share priceFigures 2and 3show that cement prices in east China and south central China havepicked up recently thanks to more construction activity during the peak season in 4Q. Weare likely to see another round of price hikes in the next few weeks. The low cementinventory level (Figure 4and 5) should also offer support to cement prices in east Chinaand south central China.Reiterate ADDWe lift our FY19F/20F EPS by 3%/4% after making a minor upward adjustment in oursales volume projection and a slight increase in the gross profit per tonne forecast(Figure 8). We maintain our ADD rating, and our target price is unchanged at Rmb45.40(1.76x 2019F P/Bv). We set the target price based on a 6% discount to our H-sharetarget price (the average discount in the past few years).
许继电气 电力设备行业 2019-10-17 10.01 -- -- 9.98 -0.30%
10.06 0.50% -- 详细
1.事件公司发布 2019年前三季度业绩公告, 公司实现营收 52.38亿元,同比增长 25.93%; 归母净利润 2.66亿元,同比增长 71.45%。 第三季度公司实现营收 21.84亿元,同比增长 45.32%; 归母净利润 9290.67万元,同比增长 296.66%。 2.我们的分析与判断毛利率回升助力业绩高增。 2019年第三季度公司整体毛利率为19.66%,环比提高 3.57个百分点,同比提高 3.37个百分点。在毛利率回升的带动下, 2019年第三季度公司实现归母净利润 9290.67万元,同比增长296.66%, 利润增速高于营收增速。 费用管控良好。 2019年前三季度公司研发、 销售、 管理、 财务费用率分别为 3.32%、 4.18%、 6.00%、 0.02%,同比变动分别为 0.88pct、 -0.42pct、0.34pct、 -0.76pct,整体期间费用率为 13.52%,同比变动 0.03pct。 控股股东中标 3.7亿元三峡合同, 相关产品与业务将由公司提供。 2019年 9月,公司控股股东许继集团中标“三峡如东海上风电柔性直流输电示范项目换流阀设备采购”项目, 中标金额为 37490万元, 是我国首个海上风电柔性直流送出项目。 本次中标的相关产品与业务将由公司提供,对公司未来业绩形成有力支撑。 “特高压+智能电网”景气向上。( 1)特高压: 2018年 9月, 国家能源局印发《关于加快推进一批输变电重点工程规划建设工作的通知》, 共规划了 12条特高压工程。 目前, 青海-河南、 陕北-湖北、 张北-雄安、 驻马店-南阳、 雅中-江西等特高压线路已经核准并公布设备中标结果,后续特高压建设将继续稳步推进。 ( 2)智能电网: 2019年 10月 14日,国家电网在京召开发布会,发布《泛在电力物联网白皮书 2019》 ,规划到 2021年初步建成泛在电力物联网, 到 2024年建成泛在电力物联网。 3.投资建议公司在特高压及智能电网的相关业务中实力强劲,未来随着行业景气度持续回升,公司业绩有望继续高增。 我们预计公司 2019-2021年营业收入为 93.90亿元、 111.78亿元、 130.75亿元, EPS 为 0.47元、 0.61元、 0.76元,对应当前股价 PE 为 20.9倍、 16.1倍、 12.9倍, 首次覆盖给予公司“推荐”评级。 4.风险提示1) 特高压项目中标份额不及预期的风险; 2) 泛在电力物联网建设推进不及预期的风险; 3) 毛利率下滑的风险。
五粮液 食品饮料行业 2019-09-09 139.65 -- -- 140.73 0.77%
140.73 0.77% -- 详细
1.事件五粮液发布 2019年半年报。 2019上半年公司实现营业总收入271.51亿元,同比增长 26.75%; 实现归母净利润 93.36亿元,同比增长 31.30%,扣非归母净利润 93.94亿元,同比增长 32.56%。 2.我们的分析与判断(一) 2Q19收入、利润延续良好增长公司二季度单季收入、净利润同比增速高于一季度, 并在去年较高基数上实现良好增长。 从单季度数据来看, 一、二季度公司营业总收入分别为 175.90、 95.61亿元,同比增速分别为 26.57、27.08%;归母净利润分别为 64.75、 28.61亿元,同比增速分别为30.26、 33.72%;扣非归母净利润分别为 65.40、 28.54亿元,同比增速分别为 31.85、 34.22%。 公司利润增速高于收入增速,主要得益于五粮液核心产品量价增长,整体产品结构进一步优化。 19H1公司毛利率为 73.81%,同比提升 0.98PCT; 其中酒类产品毛利率为 78.16%, 同比提升 1.63PCT,并达近年新高。 19H1公司销售费率 9.76%,同比下降 0.31PCT;三项费用率 11.87%,下降1.25PCT。 毛利率提升及费用率下降助推销售净利率同比增加1.28PCT,达 36.12%。 (二) 现金流量同比明显向好销售回款大幅增加,现金流量指标同比明显改善。 19Q2公司预收账款余额为 43.54亿元,环比 Q1减少 4.99亿元,同比减少 1.47%。 公司 Q2收到销售回款 279.65亿元,同比增长 62.48%,经营性现金流量净额为 83.66亿元, 同比增长 13.02倍, 本报告期银行承兑汇票到期收现增加及货款中收取的现金比例提高所致; 经营性现金流量净额/净利润的比例从 19Q1的 1.16降低至 19Q2的 0.85,去年 Q2该比例为 0.08。 (三) 经典升级、优化产品与组织架构创造持续增长红利我们认为, 2019上半年, 公司的重要看点有三个方面: 第一, 毫无疑问的是三重升级后,第八代经典五粮液的推出。 第七代经典五粮液自 2003年上市以来,已持续生产 16年,累计生产 12.3万余吨、超过2.47亿瓶,是中国白酒发展史上的标志性“大单品”。 2019年 5月 20日, 第七代经典五粮液全部完成生产后,李曙光董事长宣布第八代经典五粮液正式启动生产。 据了解, 6月份,第八代经典五粮液上市时,终端供货价为 959元/瓶,终端建议零售价为 1199元/瓶。上市两月后,第八代五粮液终端动销较快,已经站稳千元,部分地区经销商预计,临近中秋终端价格还会进一步上升。 第二,围绕着品牌核心价值,公司进行了充分的品牌建设梳理工作。 2019上半年,公司依托明清老窖池优势,推出重新定义的超高端产品——501五粮液;打造以缘定晶生为代表的年轻时尚五粮液新零售模式,高标准策划低度五粮液的独立市场体系,打开更大的营销局面;制定并发布全新的品牌宪法《五粮液品牌产品开发及清退管理标准》,进一步规范营销渠道,对严重透支五粮液品牌价值的 42个品牌 129款高仿产品进行了清退和下架处理。 第三, 通过第八代经典五粮液的上市,导入“控盘分利”业务模式,实现商家结构优化和营销过程的精细化管理。 2019上半年, 公司按照“纵向扁平化、横向专业化”的思路,将原有 7大营销中心改为21个营销战区,下设 60个营销基地,深耕区域、快速响应;补充 260余名优秀营销人员。公司营销数字化平台正式上线运作,第八代经典五粮液控盘分利模式正常运行,初步建立了五粮液品牌与产品数据库,为精准识别消费者群体、渠道维护、经营决策提供大数据支撑。 3.投资建议预计公司 2019-2021年度实现营业总收入 499.06、594.78、687.86亿元,分别同比增长 24.67、19.18、 15.65%,实现归母净利润 172. 11、 210.23、 251.81亿元, 分别同比增长 28.59、 22.15、19.78%,对应 2019-2021年 EPS 分别为 4.43、 5.42、 6.49元, 目前价格对应 PE 倍数为 32、 26、22倍, 维持“推荐”评级。 4.风险提示食品安全风险; 下游需求疲软风险; 渠道投放不及预期风险。
烽火通信 通信及通信设备 2019-09-06 27.70 -- -- 30.46 9.96%
30.46 9.96%
详细
1.投资事件 公司发布中报,2019H1公司实现营业收入119.85亿元,同比增长7.07%,实现归母净利润4.28亿元,同比下降8.43%。实现扣非净利润4.16亿元,同比下降8.67%。 2.分析判断 4G5G转换期运营商采购收紧,半年度业绩略低于预期。2019H1公司实现营业收入119.85亿元,同比增长7.07%;19Q1实现营业收入48.81亿元,同比增长15%;19Q2实现营业收入71.04亿元,同比增长仅为2.28%,单季度收入同比增速降至近8个季度最低点。报告期内公司实现归母净利润4.28亿元,同比下降8.43%,为公司近五年来首次归母净利润首次同比下降。公司实现经营活动现金流量净额-30.29亿元,同比增长12.90%;加权ROE为4.18%,同比减少0.64pct;EPS为0.37元/股,同比下降11.90%。 毛利率承压,期间费用率同步下降。研发费用率趋稳,提前布局5G前传、电信云等下一代技术。2019H1公司毛利率为20.55%,同比降低2.73pct;净利率为3.69%,同比降低0.78pct;期间费用率为17.56%,同比降低1.67pct。报告期公司研发支出11.96亿元,占总营收9.98%,同比降低0.18pct,基本保持稳定。多项研发成果获得客户验证认可。承载方面,10G速率G.metro前传设备通过联通验收,设备标准业界领先。U3LA光纤通过电信、联通集采测试。新型OLT、ONU等持续优化,满足运营商向SDNFV化平滑演进的需求。U公司在电信云技术上取得突破,有效提高网络性能,有望借助技术优势在5G时代众多新型应用爆发时争得较大市场份额。 子公司表现惊艳,新业务增长取得突破。公司信息业务子公司烽火星空增长迅猛,报告期内实现净利润1.92亿元,同比增长250.56%;子公司烽火集成净利润8188万元,同比增长123.59%。面对传统业务暂时低迷,公司向垂直行业、网络安全等细分市场深化布局,有望实现新的业务增长点。 19H2传输网需求有望回暖,提振公司传统主业业绩,为快速实现5G商用,我国5G组网建设前期主要以NSA为主,当前运营商对传输网新建需求尚未完全释放。我们预计19H2起运营商有望启动SA版本5G建设,传输网相关环节需求将有望回暖。 3.财务简析 2014年以来公司营业收入和净利润持续增长。2019年上半年公司营业收入同比增长7.07%。归母净利润同比下降8.43%。 近年来公司单季度营业收入均保持两位数的同比增长,但19Q2营收同比增速降至2.27%,增速趋缓。19Q2归母净利润2.61亿元,同比降低20.43%。 公司期间费用率持续下降。2014年来公司利润率呈持续下降趋势,2019H1毛利率为20.55%,归母净利率3.69%。 4.投资建议 预计公司2019-2021年EPS分别为0.80/1.03/1.19元/股,对应动态市盈率分别为34.2/26.6/22.8倍,给予“推荐”评级。 风险提示:运营商投资不及预期的风险;5G承载网建设需求不达预期的风险;通信设备市场竞争加剧的风险;光纤光缆采购不达预期的风险。
未署名
金隅集团 非金属类建材业 2019-09-05 3.44 3.97 21.41% 3.58 4.07%
3.66 6.40%
详细
Impressive performance of the cement businessBBMG’s recurring net profit grew 33% YoY to RMB2.79bn in 1H19. The cement segmentwas one of the key drivers, with gross profit increasing 28% to RMB6.3bn in 1H19(50%of the total before adjusting for minority interests). Blended gross profit per tonne (cementand clinker) rose 13%, from RMB106/tonne in 1H18to RMB120/tonne in 1H19. Cementprices performed well in north China in 1H19, thanks to the healthy recovery of fixedasset investment in the region. In 1H19, fixed asset investment in Beijing, Tianjin andHebei grew 14.7%, 17.4% and 5.6% YoY, respectively. The Company’s sales volume ofcement and clinker increased 14.5% YoY to 50m tonnes.Stable growth of the property development businessRevenue of the property development business increased 12% YoY to RMB11.1bn in1H19. Booked GFA increased 5.6% YoY to 455,100m2in 1H19. The gross margin of thesegment was 37.4% in 1H19, much higher than the full-year guidance of about 27%.Management maintained this guidance as some projects to be booked in 2H19havelower margins. Contracted sales in 1H19were RMB9.38bn, only 27% of the full-yeartarget. Based on the tone of management, we don’t rule out the possibility that theCompany will revise down the full-year target. But it should not have much impact on ourprofit forecasts, as we are not using aggressive projections for this segment.National holiday to have limited impact on cement demandBBMG expects sales volume of cement and clinker to maintain double-digit growth in2H19. Some investors have concerns about a production suspension in north Chinaduring the National holiday. According to management, the Company has not receivedany production suspension notices from the government yet. If there are anysuspensions, the Company believes the overall impact should be manageable, asdemand will catch up after the National holiday, provided there is flexibility to start thewinter production suspension later.Maintain ADDWe raise our 2019F/2020F EPS by 17.1%/18.5% to reflect (i) an upward revision ofcement and clinker sales volume by 8.6%/14.9% for 2019F/2020F, and (ii) higher grossprofit per tonne projections for 2019F/2020F by 13.8%/5.6%. However, we lower oursum-of-the-parts target price for BBMG-H from HK$3.41to HK$2.91) to reflect theweaker RMB exchange rate and the application of a larger NAV discount (from 50% to55%), as the high gearing of the Company (net debt/equity > 100%) may cap share priceperformance under current market conditions (Figure 5). Therefore we adjust our targetprice of BBMG-A from RMB4.45to RMB3.97(50% premium to our H-share target price,methodology unchanged).
未署名
美的集团 电力设备行业 2019-09-05 54.25 60.00 6.76% 54.97 1.33%
60.80 12.07%
详细
1H19results surprised to the upsideMidea’s net profit grew 16% YoY to Rmb16.1b in 1H19, above our expectation andconsensus of 14% growth. The net margin expanded by 0.8ppt YoY to 10.4%. Net profitgrowth was helped mainly by 45.9% growth in interest income from wealth managementproduct investment and cash deposits. Revenue grew 7.4% YoY, driven mainly by thecore AC and consumer appliance segments. The gross margin expanded by 2ppt to29.7% despite the AC sales promotion Midea started in Q1, thanks to lower raw materialcosts and higher ASPs in other key product categories, such as refrigerators. Operatingmargins grew only 0.5ppt to 10.9% owing to higher selling expense from promotions.Lower AC exposure should mean less margin erosion in 2H19Because of high channel inventory (4–5months) and new AC energy-efficiencystandards coming out at the end of 2019, we expect major AC makers to further cutASPs in 2H19to chase market share and trim inventory levels. ACs accounted for 46%of Midea’s total sales in 1H19, and we estimate refrigerators and washing machinesaccounted for 10% of total sales each. In the face possible competitive AC price cuts in2H19, we expect Midea’s higher exposure in other key home appliance categories to helpit minimize potential margin erosion in 2H19.Midea better positioned the for upcoming consumption stimulusOn 27Aug, the State Council released an Opinion to encourage local governments tosupport the sales promotion of energy efficient ACs, refrigerators and washing machines.And earlier this year, the NDRC released a guideline to potentially boost home appliancesales by ~Rmb700b in 2019–2021. So far only Beijing and Guangxi have rolled out theirstimulus plans, but we expect other regions to follow in 2H19and 2020. We expect thenew round of stimulus to focus more on replacement demand than new demand, as thepenetration of major appliances is approaching saturation in both urban and rural areas.We also expect the stimulus to benefit pure AC makers less, considering the current highchannel inventory. We think Midea is an easily identifiable beneficiary of the stimulusbecause of its higher exposure to the mid- to high-end refrigerator, washing machine andkey small appliance segments.Upgrade to ADDWe upgrade our rating to ADD and increase our TP from Rmb48.0to Rmb60.0toaccount for better-than-expected 1H19earnings growth and improved margins in the ACand consumer appliances segments. We now value Midea at 14x 2020earnings vs. theprevious 13x, and raise our 2020earnings projection by 16% to factor in the upcomingconsumption stimulus. We continue to prefer Midea because of its stronger balancesheet, more diversified revenue mix and long-term product upgrade story.
未署名
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2019-09-02 32.90 -- -- 38.67 17.54%
43.96 33.62%
详细
1. 投资事件公司披露中报, 2019H1公司实现营业收入 19.54亿元,同比增长 7.05%;归母净利润 3.69亿元,同比下降 15.67%。 2. 分析判断半年度业绩符合预期,境外业务收入增速迅猛,移动终端淡季和产能转移阶段性影响业绩。2019H1公司实现营业收入 19.54亿元,同比增长 7.05%, 其中境外收入 12.36亿元,占比 63.25%,同比增长 100.68%。公司归母净利润 3.69亿元,同比下降 15.67%,扣非归母净利润 2.87亿元,同比下降 33.40%,主要因下游需求不足及产能转移所致。 5G 商用即将开启, 4G 手机销售放缓,公司 4G 时代存量产品价格和销量均下滑。同时公司进行产能转移,新工厂建设与搬迁推高公司当期的成本与费用,使得公司净利承压。 19H1公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额 1.41亿元,同比下降 60.17%。加权 ROE 为9.55%,同比降低 5.13pct。 EPS 为 0.38元/股,同比下降 15.04%。 毛利率高位稳定, 期间费用率、研发费用率大幅提升,净利率承压。 2019H1公司综合毛利率为 34.62%,同比降低 1.88pct,但总体来看公司毛利率近年一直维持在较高水平。净利率为 19.13%,同比降低 6.80pct。期间费用率为 16.59%,同比提高 4.72pct;管理费用率为 12.30%,同比提高 3.47pct。公司 2019H1研发支出 1.77亿元,同比增长 65.42%; 2019H1研发支出占收入比达 9.05%,同比提高 3.19pct。公司积极布局 5G 拓展新业务,持续加大研发投入,扩张研发及管理人员规模,费用支出增大致使净利率短期承压。但随着新增项目逐渐放量,公司业绩有望迎来持续性增长。 股权激励彰显信心。 公司发布第三期股权激励计划草案,拟授予公司董事及高管股票期权 3000万份。 行权条件为 2019-2012年营业收入分别不低于 50亿元、 65亿元和 85亿元,分别较上一年增长 6.22%、 30%、 30.77%。公司实施股权激励彰显未来发展信心。 布局 5G 产业链,维持技术领先优势,业绩有望持续增长。 公司持续对 5G 射频材料、 Sub-6MIMO 天线、毫米波相控阵列天线加大研发投入,保持行业内技术领先水平,高技术壁垒支撑公司毛利率维持在较高水平。公司还积极开拓基站端及汽车端的业务布局及产品开发,培育新的收入增长点。下半年随着消费电子行业旺季的到来,各产品线稳步出货,新增项目逐渐放量,公司全年业绩增长有保障。 3. 财务简析2014年来公司营业收入及归母净利润持续高速增长,增速逐年放缓。 2019年 H1公司营业收入同比增长 7.05%,归母净利润同比下降 15.67%。 2017年 Q4至 2018年 Q3公司单季度营业收入同比增速逐渐增快,随后开始放缓。受存量产品价格及销量下滑影响,2019年 Q2营业收入同比下降 11%。单季度归母净利润波动较大,18Q3达近八个季度最高水平 4.25亿元,随后 18Q4下降至近八个季度最低水平 1.26亿元。19Q2同比大幅下降 44%至 1.28亿元。 4. 投资建议预计公司 2019-2021年 EPS 分别为 1.04/1.41/1.71元/股,对应动态市盈率分别为30.0/23.0/18.9倍,给予“谨慎推荐”评级。 风险提示:5G 建设不及预期的风险;5G 终端销售不及预期的风险;海外经营环境恶化的风险; 海外市场开拓不达预期的风险;汇率大幅波动的风险。
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