金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
买入研报查询: 按股票 按研究员 按机构 高级查询 意见反馈
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/3 转到  

最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2017-02-21 8.86 10.05 -- 9.20 3.84%
9.97 12.53%
详细
Strong Jan traffic growth, small revenue decline, strong Feb revenue rebound The company announced strong Jan. traffic growth (accelerating vs. Dec), includingShanghai-Nanjing Expressway (SNE) +27% YoY (10% in Dec), Ningchang/ZhenliExpressways +56%/+32% YoY (23%/24% YoY in Dec) and Guangjing/XichengExpressways +24%/+17% (10%/12% YoY in Dec). We attribute the strong Jan trafficgrowth to an earlier Chinese New Year (28 Jan 2017 vs. 8 Feb 2016), as passengertraffic used to be strong before Chinese New Year. Despite strong traffic growth in Jan,SNE's Jan toll revenue growth slowed to a 1-2% YoY decline (+9% YoY in Dec), as 5days (16% of the whole Jan) were toll free for 7-seaters and below in Jan 2017. However, we expect SNE's Feb toll revenue growth to accelerate to >20% YoY, withthe impact of the toll-free policy reverses, on top of healthy organic growth. Jan truck traffic growth remained positive despite Chinese New Year SNE's Jan traffic for Class 4-5 vehicles (>10t) recorded 10% YoY growth, deceleratingfrom 30% YoY in Dec. According to management, truck traffic growth remainedpositive in Jan, although it slowed from around 10% YoY in Nov/Dec We believepositive truck traffic growth in Jan is already encouraging, as there used to be fewtrucks travelling around the time of Chinese New Year. We remain confident in asustained truck recovery due to strict overloading control of trucks, strong heavy-dutytruck sales and improved infrastructure construction activity. Most defensive toll road operator; upside to consensus 2017 EPS estimate Our 2016/17 EPS estimates are 4%/9% above the consensus average estimate. Webelieve consensus earnings upgrades are likely in the next few months, to factor inpotentially better-than-expected truck traffic growth. We continue to view JSE as themost defensive listed toll-road operator, as it has historically not cut its DPS, even whenexperiencing EPS declines in 2004-05. We forecast the dividend payout ratio to stay at70-80%, with no YoY DPS decline in the future, due to its strong cash flow-generatingability. Valuation: Maintain Buy; PT of Rmb11.50 Our DCF-based price target of Rmb11.50 assumes WACC of 6.2%.
广深铁路 公路港口航运行业 2016-11-03 4.42 4.93 121.08% 4.63 4.75%
5.89 33.26%
详细
9M16 passenger volume steady; revenue growth accelerated 9M16 passenger departure volume fell 1% YoY (H116: -1% YoY), mainly on diversionof passengers to high-speed rail (HSR) and fewer visits to Hong Kong by mainlandtourists. In our view, most of the negative impact on the company's passenger volumefrom the launch of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen HSR (late 2011) and Xiamen-ShenzhenHSR (28 Dec 2013) has already materialized over the past four years, and we expectpassenger volume to remain stable in full-year 2016. 9M16 revenue was Rmb12.7bn,with growth accelerating to 12% YoY from 10% in H1, driven by other transportservices (+51% YoY). Railway transport services to become a new revenue growth driver Railway transport services include railway operation services and other services. Thesetwo categories generated H116 revenue of Rmb1.27bn/Rmb670m, respectively,accounting for 16%/8% of total revenue. This was mainly due to continuous growth inits volume of transport services provided for trains that transit via HSR lines inGuangdong province. Meanwhile, our statistics indicate that 1,200km of new HSRtrack will be added in Guangdong in the next 5 years, implying a 12% CAGR. Thisshould provide further impetus to the company's other transport services business,turning the segment into a new top-line driver. More positive on growth of transport services revenue; upgrading earnings Guangshen Railway provides transport services for the Wuhan-Guangzhou Railway,Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Railway, Guangzhou-Zhuhai Intercity Line, Xiamen-Shenzhen Railway, etc., covering a total track length of over 1,600km, which is likely tokeep rising. We believe the company's other transport services are reaching asignificant size and will maintain strong growth. Therefore, we estimate its othertransport services business to post revenue growth of 41%/7%/6% in 2016/17/18(from 4.2%/5.1%8.2%). Accordingly, our 2016/17/18E EPS rise 6.7%/4.9%/7.0%. Valuation: Rmb5.21 price target and Buy rating Our Rmb5.21 price target is based on DCF (WACC to 8.1% from 8.3%). We maintainour Buy rating. The stock is trading on 1.1x 2017E PB, lower than its historical average. We believe development of the other transport services business could become a newsource of sustainable growth.
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2016-11-03 9.13 9.44 -- 9.19 0.66%
9.19 0.66%
详细
Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Q316/9M16 net revenue fell 4%/5% YoY, in line with our expectation (due to thedecline of ancillary services and delayed recognition of property sales). But 9M16 pre-xnet profit beat our expectation (due to lower than expected finance cost) by growing11% YoY, representing 81%/82% of UBS/consensus full year estimate. Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results? A: Truck traffic on Shanghai-Nanjing E'way showed two consecutive months of positivegrowth in Aug/Sept and management also highlighted traffic recovery on all otherexpressways. Rmb170m property pre-sale recorded in Q316, bringing unrecognisedproperty revenue to Rmb1.56bn. 9M16 finance cost dropped 37% YoY due to debtswap on the high-interest debt inherited from the two acquisitions in 2015. Q: Has the company's outlook/guidance changed?A : No guidance provided. Q: How would we expect investors to react? A: We expect investors to react positively to the strong result.
平高电气 电力设备行业 2016-10-24 17.63 18.88 151.32% 17.94 1.76%
17.94 1.76%
详细
9M16 net profit up 71% YoY, in line with Pinggao's estimate Pinggao Electric released its Q316 financial statement, reporting 9M16 revenue ofRmb4.2bn (up 34% YoY) and net profit of Rmb870m (up 71% YoY), in line withPinggao's preliminary estimate of 60-90% YoY growth in net profit in 9M16. Q316 netprofit was Rmb350m, up 61% YoY. We mainly attribute the rapid growth in net profitto an intensive delivery of high value-added products, mainly ultra-high-voltage (UHV)GIS products, in our view. Pinggao to be a major beneficiary of high UHV investment growth in 2016-18E We believe Pinggao will be a major beneficiary of high growth in UHV investment. Weestimate China's UHV investment to exceed Rmb300bn in 2016-18E, c2x of UHVinvestment in 2011-15. Pinggao's UHV GIS products, which have a c45% gross margin,occupy a leading share (45%+) in the market. We believe its leading position is likely tosustain in the next three years, therefore, it may obtain relatively sufficient high grossmargin UHV orders. New business & ongoing asset injection may partially offset some negatives We expect Pinggao's new businesses (Tianjin Pinggao, electrical vehicle chargingfacilities and grid maintenance) and ongoing asset injection (mainly mid-to-low-voltageproducts) will benefit from China's accelerating investment in power distributionnetworks in 2016-20 (Rmb1.7trn, a 50%+ growth vs. 2011-15 investment) and theNDRC's aggressive target on the development of charging piles (the NDRC targets tobuild an additional 4.8m+ charging piles and 12,000 charging stations, compared to31,000 charging piles and 780 charging stations at end-2014). We believe these couldpartially offset the potential UHV decline after 2018. Valuation: maintain Buy rating, price target of Rmb20.54 We derive our price target of Rmb20.54 with the DCF methodology (WACC 7%).Pinggao may face a fierce competitive environment in the UHV market by 2020, andthis situation may be more severe by 2030 and after. This is reflected in our mid- andlong-term DCF ROIC assumptions (10%/7.6%, respectively, below assumptions of 13-15% for international leading electric equipment manufacturers). However, we believethe market is too focused on the company's long-term UHV decline and not focusedenough on projected momentum in UHV returns in the next three years.
山东高速 公路港口航运行业 2016-09-26 6.91 5.90 -- 6.54 -5.35%
7.40 7.09%
详细
Rmb4bn private placement to Anbang Asset and Huarong Trust The Board passed its private placement plan, planning to issue up to 708m shares toAnbang Asset and Huarong Trust to raise up to Rmb4bn at Rmb5.65/sh (15% below itsclosing price of Rmb6.68/sh before trading suspension), with a lock-up period of 36months. Of the Rmb4bn to be financed, Anbang will subscribe Rmb3.6bn with its AMproducts, while Huarong will subscribe Rmb0.4bn with its own fund. The funds raisedwill all be used for Jiqing's expansion from 4 to 8 lanes. The planning is also subject tothe approval of shareholders' meeting, notice of which will be issued according toShangdong SASAC's approval process. Its shares will resume trading on 23 Sep. EPS will be diluted by 8%; gearing ratio will drop notably The to-be-issued 708m shares will account for 13% of total equity of 5.519bn sharesafter the placement. As the savings in financial expenses will increase its net profit (ex.one-offs) by 5%, we calculate the placement will dilute EPS by 8%. The Rmb4bn to beraised will also significantly reduce the company's gearing ratio, with 2017/18E debt-toequityratio to drop to 46%/72% from 67%/95%, based on our estimate. Meanwhile,the company also determined its 2016-18E shareholder return plan, with each year'scash dividend no less than 30% of that year's distributable profit and accumulated cashdividend no less than 90% of the three years' annual average distributable profit. Positive on investment return of the Jiqing expansion project Though the market may be concerned that the Jiqing expansion project could drag onearnings during its construction period (2016-19E) and the early operation period(2020-25E), we are still optimistic on its long-term return. Assuming the project'scapital fund investment is Rmb7.5bn, and there will be 25 years' concession rightperiod (to June 2044) after its completion, we estimate the project's capital fund returnat 10% (the project's total investment at Rmb30bn). Meanwhile, potential saving inconstruction expenses, lower-than-expected interest expense, better-than-expectedtraffic flow/toll rate and potential cheap financing from China Development Bank topartly replace the Rmb7.5bn capital fund could all contribute to better investmentreturn. For more information on this project, please refer to our initiation report: Weare positive on cash return from Jiqing expansion; tariffs may have upside. Valuation: Buy rating, 12-month price target of Rmb7.05 We derive our price target of Rmb7.05 with the DCF methodology (WACC 6.8%),assuming a terminal value of 0 after the termination of concession right in 2044.
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2016-09-05 8.93 8.83 -- 9.04 1.23%
9.24 3.47%
详细
Revenue/NP slightly below expectations, but OpCF beat H116 revenue declined 6% YoY, among which toll revenue +3% YoY, ancillary services-12% YoY, property -94% YoY, and advertising -15% YoY. Despite Rmb902m in presalesbooked in H116, property development booked a mere Rmb14.15m (-94% YoY)in revenue. H116 net profit retreated 10% YoY but recurring net profit rose 10% YoYto Rmb1.56bn, 2% below our expectation. However, H116 OpCF jumped 41% YoY toRmb2.9bn on strong property pre-sales, representing 74% of our full-year estimate. Toll road margin expanded; growth on new expressways better than guidance。 We attribute the 2.89ppt YoY toll road gross margin expansion in H116 to: disposal ofloss-making G312 and a 59% YoY drop in maintenance expense (high base to preparefor the National Examination on maintenance of mainlines in 2015). Furthermore, thedecline in truck traffic on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway (SNE) narrowed from 6.2%/4.6%/5.1% YoY in Q215/Q315/Q415 to 4.6% YoY in H116. The newly acquiredNingchang Expressway improved its toll revenue by 20% YoY in H116, better than theguidance provided 1.5 years ago. Management is positive on H216 and 2016 outlook July's toll road traffic performance was generally better than in H116, both in terms ofPVs and trucks, especially for the newly acquired Ningchang, Zhenli and XiyiExpressways. Management expects the above-mentioned newly acquired expresswaysto gradually become the company's profit growth drivers. Furthermore, managementexpects more property development revenue/profit booking in H216 and continuouslowering of interest expenses to support H216 profit growth. Valuation: Reiterate Buy; Rmb10.10 price target Our DCF-based price target of Rmb10.10 assumes WACC of 7.1%. We expect apositive reaction to the strong H116 OpCF and positive H216 outlook.
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2015-09-09 7.62 7.84 -- 8.86 16.27%
9.10 19.42%
详细
公司公告江苏省政府已同意提前终止312国道沪宁段的收费经营权。 公司公告于2015年9月6日收到江苏省政府关于提前终止312国道收费经营权的批复。根据批复,江苏省政府同意撤除312国道沪宁段4个收费站,并提前终止公司对312国道沪宁段的收费经营权,收费经营期截至15年9月15日。同时,政府在批复中明确,将按照相关规定对公司提前终止收费经营权作出经济补偿,并根据有关法律法规办理312国道沪宁段的管养交移手续。 预计提前终止312国道的收费经营权将对公司盈利产生积极影响。 我们在2015年9月7日的公司报告《15E每股分红0.42元=股息收益率5.5%;或有来自政策和G312收费站补贴的催化剂》中指出,对于处于亏损经营的312国道,对公司而言较有吸引力的解决方案是将剩下的资产剥离至政府或者母公司。312国道在2014年和2015年上半年的亏损额分别为2.27亿/0.93亿元(分别占扣非后净利润的9%/7%);截至2015年6月30日该资产的账面价值为8.3亿元。尽管收费经营权的终止可能给公司带来 8.3亿元的资产减值损失,但我们预计该损失将会得到政府的补偿--与2012年收费站移除时的情况类似。同时,由于该资产的亏损不再计入公司的财务报表,我们预计该项经营权的终止将有望提升公司6%-7%的盈利 。 有吸引力的股息收益率和持续的高分红比率是公司最大的亮点。 受益于公司强劲的现金流生成能力,我们认为公司长期以来坚持维持高分红比率是最大的亮点。公司是唯一一家自上市以来从未减少每股分红的高速公路上市公司。我们预计公司2015年的每股分红为0.42元(70%的分红比率);按照9月7日收盘价格7.61元计算,隐含的股息收益率为5.5%。另外,我们认为公司可能会将分红比率进一步提高到70%以上,因为它不再被要求保留10%的净利润作为法定准备。 估值:目标价9.40元,维持“买入”评级。 我们的目标价9.40元是基于现金流贴现模型(WACC设为7.2%)得到的。
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2015-09-02 8.07 -- -- 8.86 9.79%
9.10 12.76%
详细
Q: 相对于预期,业绩表现如何? A: 上半年公司扣非后净利润同比增长24%(与去年同期重述后的数据相比),比我们的预测高3%,占我们和市场对于公司全年预测的比例均为53%。 Q: 业绩中最值得关注的是什么? A: 公司新收购的宁常高速H115的通行费收入同比增长39%,好于预期。同时,上半年公司公路业务的收入同比增幅(+2%)好于成本增幅(+1%),尽管由于道路国检的原因(每5年一次)上半年的养护成本大幅上升69%。 Q: 公司的展望/预测是否发生了变化? A: 管理层并未对指引作出大的调整。公司预计下半年随着对沪宁高速的分流影响趋于平稳,公司整体的经营环境将有所改善。 Q: 我们预计投资者会作何反应? A: 业绩好于预期,当前股价对应的15年预测股息收益率为5%,具有吸引力。 风险声明 车流量面临的风险主要来自货车车流量放缓以及进一步的政策风险。投资房地产行业还给公司带来多元化经营的风险。
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2015-03-11 7.09 6.98 -- 8.38 18.19%
10.11 42.60%
详细
我们对公司重新回归核心收费公路业务持积极态度. 公司最近提议收购母公司的两处公路资产,此事有待3 月12 日的股东大会批准,对此我们持积极态度。最近我们在市场上了解到,大多数投资者都支持此项提议,而且愿意看到公司通过资产注入的方式回归核心收费公路业务,而不是像前几年那样对非核心业务(如房地产开发和银行)进行小规模投资。 我们保守估算,拟收购资产的项目内部回报率为8%,权益内部回报率远高于10%。 预计0.38 元的每股分红不会降低,股息支付率可能上升. 在上市收费公路运营商中,只有宁沪高速的分红水平从未出现过下降。我们相信,今后公司仍将保持最少0.38 元的每股分红,按3 月6 日收盘价计算,相应的股息收益率为5%。同时,我们认为管理层可能提高股息支付率,原因是公司不再需要保持10%的法定盈余公积提取比率。此外,我们认为母公司也支持公司的高分红政策,目的是为自己的资本支出提供支持。 催化剂:312 国道赔偿、迪士尼乐园和进一步收购. 除了现有的成熟高速公路带来大量稳定现金流外,我们认为其他潜在催化剂包括:1)312 国道撤站赔偿可能很快得到确认;2)2015 年底上海迪士尼度假区开业可能提升车流量;3)进一步收购收费公路资产以及铁路和机场等其他基础设施资产(或者说,更有可能获得注入的资产)。 估值:维持“买入”评级,新目标价8.80 元. 我们小幅下调2014-16 年盈利预测。我们将基于贴现现金流(WACC 设为7.2%)的目标价上调至8.80 元,原因是将现金流向前调整一年,下调中期维护资本支出假设以及下调了WACC。
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2015-01-14 7.05 6.50 -- 7.38 4.68%
9.10 29.08%
详细
管理层预计沪宁高速车流量疲软,看好新收购公路。 今天我们有幸邀请到三位公司的管理层参加我们2015年瑞银大中华研讨会。投资者的关注点在公司于2014年底提议收购的两条公路资产上。管理层对收购带来的协同性抱有信心,不过他们也承认核心的沪宁高速(SNE)15年上半年,或至少1季度的路费收入可能会出现同比下滑,在下半年回归增长态势。管理层认为上海迪士尼乐园的开张将对车流量带来利好影响,不过由于沪宁高速东段使用率已经较高,利好影响可能较微弱。 新收购公路产生的IRR>10%,不会下调DPS。 管理层预计新收购的两条公路能产生至少10%的股权IRR,而且认为纬信(一家独立的工程咨询公司)预测的车流量可能过于保守。另外,管理层证实收购活动不会影响DPS,因为新收购的公路应会从2015年产生正的现金流,更为重要的是,母公司也会督促江苏宁沪高速派息稳定。 可能进行潜在收购,但近期不大可能。 宁沪高速的管理层表现了收购更多资产的意愿,无论是从母公司还是第三方。母公司拥有的铁路资产可能是较好的收购目标,但管理层希望看到更为清晰的铁路定价和利润分配机制。不过,由于公布潜在的收购活动,我们预计负债率将有所增长,管理层也认为近期不大可能出现重大收购。 估值: “买入”评级,目标价8.20元。 根据现金流贴现法( WACC 为8.2%),我们得出目标价8.20元。我们依旧给予“买入”评级。
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2014-11-28 6.32 6.50 -- 7.60 20.25%
8.05 27.37%
详细
2014 年车流量放缓,但2015/16 年预计将复苏. 受溧马高速分流以及货车限行影响,公司核心资产沪宁高速的路费收入同比增速从2014 年1 季度的+4%放缓至2014 年2 季度/3 季度的+1%/-2%,导致公司整体路费收入的增速从2014 年4 月起出现回落。然而,我们预计2015/16 年公司整体路费收入将恢复增长,并预计2015/16 年沪宁高速的路费收入同比增速将回升至2%/6%,一方面是得益于内生增长恢复,另一方面预计2015 年底上海迪斯尼乐园开园将给车流量带来正面促进作用。 可能向母公司收购资产. 公司强大的现金流产生能力有望继续支持其超过70%分红比例的股息政策,并同时留存部分资金进行收购。我们认为母公司有几项资产可能成为潜在收购目标,比如成熟的收费公路或铁路项目(如已经实现盈利的沪宁城际铁路)。 公司2014 年股息收益率预计不低于6.1%,并可能提高. 我们预计公司2014 年每股派息为0.38 元(同比持平),对应2014 年预期股息收益率为6.1%(截至2014 年11 月26 日)。由于公司过去从未下调过每股派息,我们预计2014 年每股派息不太可能会低于我们0.38 元的预测。 如果2014 年4 季度房地产开发的利润贡献好于预期,2014 年实际每股派息可能超过我们的预测。并且,我们预计2015 年盈利复苏有望推动每股派息增长,我们2015 年0.39 元的每股派息预测对应股息收益率为6.3%(截至2014 年11 月26 日)。 估值:维持“买入”评级,目标价从8.42 元下调至8.20 元. 我们将我们基于现金流贴现方法得出的目标价下调至8.20 元(WACC8.2%),以反映我们对沪宁高速更加保守的预测(我们将其2014-16 年盈利预测下调2-4%)。我们维持“买入”评级。
上港集团 公路港口航运行业 2013-03-25 2.56 2.71 -- 2.64 3.13%
2.78 8.59%
详细
估算地产业务NAV为0.39元/股,尚未反映到估值中 我们认为,上港地产的三个主要项目上海国际航运服务中心、海门路55号和宝山项目属于优质地产项目,预计将从13年起连续给公司带来投资收益,且可持续开发至2020年。我们估算,上港地产业务NAV为89亿元,或0.39元/股,预计尚未反映到估值中,具备重估空间。 预计地产调控新政对上港地产影响不大 国务院办公厅3月1日公布“国五条”实施细则,或将对住宅投资性需求形成打击。但我们认为地产调控新政对上港的影响不大。我们预计其宝山住宅项目将于2015年开始开发2016年开始销售,短期内不会有影响,而我们对宝山项目的销售均价假设也很保守。而其国航中心、海门路55号项目属于稀缺性商业地产,其售价应不会受到影响。 预计主营装卸业务随经济复苏稳定低速增长 在全球经济弱复苏的背景下,我们预计公司集装箱和干散货吞吐量将保持个位数的增长。我们保守估计公司2013年集装箱吞吐量同比增幅6%,达到3436万标箱;干散货吞吐量同比增幅3%,达到1.89亿吨,而装卸费率同比持平。 估值:评级“买入”,目标价从3.10元上调至3.40元 我们将2012/2013/14E每股盈利从0.20/0.23/0.25元上调至0.21/0.24/0.26元,以反映我们重新估算的房地产结算带来的投资收益,同时我们将目标价上调至3.4元,对应2013年PE14倍。我们的目标价推导是基于现金流贴现分部加总法,其中对于地产业务部分,出于谨慎,我们给予预测NAV30%的折价。
上港集团 公路港口航运行业 2013-01-17 2.54 2.47 -- 2.87 12.99%
2.87 12.99%
详细
预计2013年集装箱吞吐量增速将略高于2012年 上港2012年实现集装箱吞吐量3259万标箱,同比增长2.5%,我们预计2013年增速将略高于2012年,目前美国需求较稳定,而欧洲需求仍然疲弱,公司应暂无外贸箱装卸费率提价计划。我们认为更多的增量将来自于“江入海”的重庆、九江、武汉和南京等腹地;且公司一直通过加强与大型船东合作来提高水水中转比例,我们估算2012年水水中转箱量约占比43%。 依托“长江战略”,物流发展提速 上港物流业务的增长已超过了装卸业务,我们认为公司将继续依托“长江战略”优势,推动物流发展。管理层表示,上港已经与中西部的大型制造业企业开展了门到港的整包物流业务,并且通过与支线船公司合作,将远洋运营模式运用到长江之线上,如舱位互换等来保证船舶的准班率。 预计2013年房地产结算将提高 公司的业绩快报公布2012年实现净利润49.2亿元,我们估算其中地产业务贡献约4-5亿元利润。我们认为2013年汇山中部地块销售将大幅增加,西部地块将加快建设,而宝山地块预计下半年将开始一期住宅建设,新购得的海门路55号商办地块或有望年内开工。 估值:维持“买入”评级 我们维持公司2012/13/14年的经常性每股收益预测0.20/0.23/0.25元。并维持3.10元的目标价。我们的目标价基于分部加总法。维持“买入”评级。
深赤湾A 公路港口航运行业 2012-11-22 8.49 9.17 -- 9.40 10.72%
15.46 82.10%
详细
受欧洲需求疲弱影响大,集装箱吞吐量增速显著放缓. 1-10月份集装箱吞吐量同比下降8%,挂靠航线数从年初的49条减少至44条。 深赤湾的欧线数占比达到31%,在同类港口中处于相对较高比例,我们认为其受欧洲需求疲弱的影响较大。瑞银交运全球团队预计,2012/13/14E欧线的集装箱货量增长率分别为-3%/3%/4%,是所有主力航线中增长率最低的。我们预计2012/13/14E深赤湾的集装箱吞吐量增速分别为-8%/3%/4%。 散杂货增长提速,集装箱长期看深圳西部港区整合. 1-10月份散杂货吞吐量同比增长21%,主要由有新泊位投产的麻涌港区增长推动。散杂货吞吐量增长及装卸费率提高一定程度上弥补了集装箱装卸的下滑。公司日前公告,其控股股东南山集团将其持有的57.2%的A股股份全部委托给招商局国际代管,则招商局国际将由间接控股变为直接控股,并将直接参与深赤湾的决策和经营管理。我们认为这是深圳西部港区资源整合的第一步,长期来看资源整合将提高集装箱业务的效率和盈利能力。 下调2012/13/14E盈利预测. 我们将2012年集装箱吞吐量增速从5%下调至-8%,将2013/14年吞吐量增速从11%/11%下调至3%/4%,主要下调了赤湾港区的增速。我们上调了散杂货的吞吐量增速和平均费率增长。调整后将2012/13/14E每股盈利预测从0.78/0.94/1.11元调整为0.71/0.77/0.83元。 估值:维持“买入”,目标价从15.70元下调至10.90元. 我们下调基于现金流贴现方法(WACC7.6%)的目标价至10.90元,以反映对盈利预测的调整。考虑到4.7%的股息收益率和估值低点(2013年PE11X),维持“买入”评级。
上港集团 公路港口航运行业 2012-11-05 2.38 2.47 -- 2.43 2.10%
2.87 20.59%
详细
三季度收入同比增长41%,净利润同比增长7% 上港三季度实现营业收入77.4亿元(+41%YoY,-4%QoQ),实现净利润12.7亿元(+7%YoY,-5%QoQ),符合预期。公司毛利率和营业利润率均保持稳定,与二季度持平在32%和25%的水平。前三季度营业外收入为3.85亿元,我们估算其中约有2.4亿为营业税改增值税后洋山港享受的增值税即征即退。 预计全年箱量低个位数增长 前三季度上港的集装箱吞吐量同比增长1.9%,增速较前几年放缓,但相对其他港口较为稳定。我们预计全年吞吐量或维持3%的低个位数增长。前三季度投资收益同比增长19%至1.8亿元,我们估计主要由于联营企业海通国际汽车码头盈利增长推动。 预计汇山地产项目临近结算 公司三季报披露,存货由于地产项目开发成本增加较年初增长119%至22.2亿元,而预收账款由于房产预收项目较年初增加140.4%至4.7亿元。我们认为此主要由于北外滩汇山地产项目进入预售期,并有可能在今年底或明年初结算,从而贡献投资收益。 估值: 评级“买入”,目标价3.10元 我们维持公司2012/13/14年的经常性每股收益预测0.20/0.23/0.25元。并维持3.10元的目标价。我们的目标价基于分部加总法。目前股价和估值均处于历史低位,维持公司“买入”评级。
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/3 转到  
*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名