Event:The Company announced that it recently signed the Agreement on Bank Card Fabrication, Customization, Package and Mailing Service with Ping An Bank. According to it, the Company will provide IC credit card fabrication, customization, package and mailing services for Ping An Bank. Comments: Smart IC card enters a peak season for business climate. In the Notice on Gradually Closing the Downgrade Transaction of Financial IC Cards issued on 14 May, the People’s Bank of China calls for giving play to the safety advantage of financial IC cards and paving the way for stopping issuance of magnetic stripe cards in 2015. This is expected to drive smart IC cards to an upbeat business climate season. The timetable was set down later: ATMs shall close the downgrade transaction of financial IC cards before the end of Aug 14E; POS machines shall close downgrade transaction of financial IC cards before the end of Oct 14E, and commercial banks shall close downgrade transactions of financial IC cards on other offline channels prior to the end of 2014 based on their own conditions. By continuously developing the national large banks as its customers, the position of the Company’s card business improved. Tungkung further won the IC credit card project (fabrication) of Ping An Bank, another high-quality customer following the China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. This is tipped to further consolidate its industrial position. At present, the IC card orders of China Construction Bank has started to increase, and the social security card business in Shandong and Henan is growing rapidly. The IC card business is expected to contribute substantial results in 2H14E. Traditional business is in sound operation, and electronic voucher business is developing steadily. The Company’s traditional business kept steady growth in 2Q14. In terms of e-invoice, latest data of www.e-inv.cn shows that the number of e-invoices issued through the Company has surpassed 10 million copies and it is still growing rapidly. JD and Xiaomi issue more than 50,000 copies of e-invoice every day each, and more large-scale e-commerce operators are applying for issuance of e-invoice. Peoples Insurance Company of China (a customer of the Company) is actively pressing ahead with the e-invoice accounting & reimbursement pilot program. Risks associated with investing in the company: enforcement of the smart card policies, and enforcement of the e-invoice policies etc.

Event: The Company announced on 29th May that it has recently received a “Notification on Bid Winning” from the credit card centre of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Holdings Limited. It won the bid for the centre’s “blank credit card and customized purchases” program, becoming the supplier of their “chip card”. Our comments on this are as follows: Comments: The growth of the penetration rate of the smart IC card is likely to rise, and this signals a boom. On 14th May, the People’s Bank published its “Circular on Matters Relating to the Gradual Phasing-out of the Financial IC Card and Transaction Downgrades”,announcing its decision to implement a standardized, country-wide process of gradually abolishing the financial IC card and “downgrading of transactions”. This process will fully utilize the safety features of the financial IC card, minimizing the risk of fraud that may arise from downgraded transactions carried out via the financial IC card. The bank will stop issuing magnetic cards in 2015E, laying a foundation for transformation which would result in a boom for the smart IC card. Gaining premium customers and becoming a major player in China’s smart IC card market. Before winning the bid to become the supplier for SPDB’s program (there are essentially only 3-4 players in this market), the Company has won bids for financial IC cards from major financial institutions in China - China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Citic Bank. Winning the most recent bid enhances the Company’s premium customer base and reinforces its status in the industry. With the current rising volume of social insurance card issuances in Shandong, Henan etc., IC card schemes in the second half of the year will likely contribute to its results, and card-related business is expected to drive growth for the year. As electronic transactions continue to evolve, back office services can be effectively improved. Currently, in the realm of electronic transactions, JD, Xiaomi, Happigo and Gome are on E-inv and are doing well; many other major e-commerce enterprises have also filed applications. The Company has been diligently facilitating the trial for the electronic filing of personal insurance claims and most core issues have been settled. The Company has also played an important role in every stage of trials and policy implementation for electronic transactions in China, demonstrating considerable first-mover advantage which the Company is constantly accumulating. In addition, the traditional businesses of the Company were stable in April and May. Upcoming orders for smart IC cards will drive the Company’s growth for the year. Risks associated with investment into the Company: Implementation of unfavorable policies in the smart card industry, as well as unfavorable policies for electronic transactions. Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating. Considering uncertainty over order volumes for the newly-won tenders, we currently maintain the Company’s 2014-16EEPS of Rmb 0.52/0.68/0.82, equivalent to prospective 2014-16E PE of 32/25/20x at the current share price of Rmb16.73 per share. Growth of traditional businesses of the Company has been steady. 2014 will likely see the Company become a forerunner among IC card suppliers, driving growth for the next two years. Success of the trial for electronic invoicing and reimbursement will gradually expand the market. In keeping abreast with trends in information services, quality back office support for the transition to electronic transactions can be provided. We reiterate its price target of Rmb21.52 per share and “BUY” rating. We continue advising investors to seize the opportunities from its re-rating driven by systemic stabilization of the market in the near term and possible breakthrough developments brought about by the trial for electronic invoicing.

2013 annual EPS met expectations and 1Q14 net profit is estimated to sustain rapid growth. In 2013, the Company logged Rmb4.57bn in turnover, Rmb0.77bn in operating profit and Rmb0.61bn in net profit, up 30%/57%/52% YoY, respectively. Its 2013 net profit after excluding non-recurring gains/losses surged 69%, and basic EPS was Rmb2.00 in line with our expectation. Full-year weighted average ROE stood at ~20%. The Company plans to pay out Rmb10 of cash dividend (tax inclusive) plus 10 bonus shares for every 10 shares outstanding. It guided YoY growth of 30~50% in 1Q14E net profit. Turnover grew rapidly amid surging gross margin. Due to shutdown for overhaul and other factors, the Company’s turnover growth slowed somewhat in 4Q13. But its full-year turnover growth remained high at 30%-plus. Three-piece can sales revenue from Red Bull, one of its core customers, rose 37% YoY, representing 72% of its turnover. Full-year sales revenue of two-price cans exceeded Rmb400mn (+21% YoY), in which, orders from JDB came in at more than 400mn pieces, accounting for more than 50% of its sales volume. Currently, Shangyu project is operating at full load, and capacity utilization rate of Zhaoqing project (put into operation in 4Q13) is consistently growing. Thanks to growing capacity utilization rate and low raw materials prices, gross margin of three- and two-price cans edged up 4.8/5.5ppts YoY to 32.81%/16.14%. ORG Packaging reasonably controlled expenses and kept sound cash flow. Increase in product freight, labor cost and R&D expenditure boosted selling/administrative expense ratio to edge up 0.93/0.55ppt to 2.62%/6.97%; while ample funds on hand drove down financial expense ratio by 1.14ppts YoY to 1.71%. As a result, cost/income ratio increased slightly. Full-year net operating cash flow stood at Rmb670mn (+61% YoY), thanks to a) growth in sales volume and b) recovery of the notes receivable (notes receivable dropped by 50% YoY). Guided by the “grand strategy for large market” strategy, ORG Packaging consistently offers innovative integrated packaging solutions. The Company’s major customers are expected to beef up brand marketing in view of the FIFA World Cup to be held in 2014, which will directly benefit the Company. Orders from Red Bull are forecast to grow 30%-plus, and in addition to full operation of the Yixing factory, ORG Packaging is projected to build presence in central and western China to better serve the needs of Red Bull. As for two-pieces cans, the Company has inked long-term cooperation agreements with Beijing Yanjing Brewery and Tsingtao Brewery, and set up factories in Guangxi and Qingdao to expand its national presence. Against robust development of the mobile Internet-based new economy, the Company has upgraded its strategy from “production innovation” to “innovation of technology, service, and business model”, and extended its customer base from food & beverage into smartphone, and other consumer electronics fields to further tap into the downstream market. Application of coated iron and other production techniques and the innovative package design and other high value-added services will step up its competition edge. By fulfilling the “grand strategy for large market” strategy, it is forecast to become a leading integrated packaging service provider in China. Its earnings growth in future deserves expectations. Potential risks. (i) Slow progress in development of new projects, (ii) excessive high concentration on customers, and (iii) decline in gross margin. Earnings forecast, valuation, and investment rating. Thanks to the business growth in Red Bull, JDB, and other core customers, the Company is projected to keep rapid growth in earnings. We forecast its 1Q14E earnings to grow ~40%. Additionally, the Company expressly noted that it will take advantage of the innovation of technology, service, and business model to build an integrated packaging service leader, and tap into the wide market potential. Overall, we lift its 2014/15E EPS to Rmb2.68/3.40 (from Rmb2.54/3.02), and project its 2016E EPS to be Rmb4.50, implying a CAGR of 31% in 2014-16E. Based on 2013 PEG of 1.1x (a 15% premium relative to the packaging sector’s average 22x 2014E PE given the Company’s rapid growth), we raise its target price to Rmb68.30, and reiterate “BUY” rating.

1-9 月盈利增长44%,符合预期。13 年1-9 月公司实现营业收入/营业利润/净利润为15.02/1.64/1.37 亿元,分别同比增长18.3%/44.1%/43.6%,实现EPS 为0.33 元。扣非后净利增长43.8%,符合我们的预期。13Q3单季收入/净利润增速为10.4%/43.8%,扣非后净利增长60.4%。公司预计全年净利润增速约25%~40%。 产能限制收入增速,提价及费用有效控制提升盈利能力。受限产能瓶颈,公司Q3 收入增长10.4%较H1 有所放缓(H1 收入增23%)。Q3 需求保持旺盛,产品库存持续低位。13Q3 公司毛利率为21.1%,较H1 持平,提价致毛利率较12 年同期高3.9pcts。Q3 木浆/钛白粉等主要原料价格持续维持低位。公司销售/管理/财务费用率为3.14%/5.52%/0.59%,同比略升0.24/0.17/0.21pcts,较H1(4.03%/5.58%/0.81%)则明显改善。Q3经营现金流同比降49%,主要因购买原料及支付职工薪酬付现增加。 需求保持良好,新产能投产有望缓解产能瓶颈。公司目前产品库存保持低位,旺季到来订单料保持较快增长;募投7 万吨新产能9 月底已投产,Q4 料集中释放产能。我们判断在较高景气度下,装饰原纸产品价格平稳;尽管目前钛白粉有看涨趋势,但目前尚未落实。综上,公司毛利率有望保持较高水平。壁纸原纸全年销量有望达6000 吨左右,壁纸盈利能力正在逐步恢复。公司计划筹建约10 万吨装饰原纸等新产能,预计将于14 年下半年投产。 风险提示。原材料价格波动风险;市场拓展风险;产品价格下跌风险。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级。考虑产能压力抑制收入增速,我们略微下调2013/14/15 年EPS 预测至0.48/0.60/0.72 元(原预测为0.50/0.63/0.76元),3 年净利CAGR 约27%。我们继续看好公司装饰原纸中长期前景,募投项目投产将进一步提升市场份额,无纺布壁纸原纸迎来快速增长期,为公司提供新的发展动力,给予公司9.53 元的目标价(对应2013 年PE20X)。考虑到公司的估值水平当前存在一定的波动性,继续维持“买入”评级。

净利增长35%,业绩优于预期。公司2012年一季度实现营业收入1.05亿元,营业利润1745万元,净利润1613万元,分别同比增长2g%、17%和35%; 如果扣除非经常性损益,净利润同比增长44%; EPS为0.10元,超出我们预期(净利增长30%左右)。 收入较快增长、毛利率提升和有效所得税率降低共助业绩增长。一季度外销同比增长31%,保持较快增长态势;因春节前置部分销售前移至去年12月,内销增速有一定放缓,但仍增长28%。受益于产品结构优化、生产效率提升等原因,一季度综合毛利率达33.61%,同比提升1.53个百分点。股权激励成本摊销、收购相关中介费用及利息支出增加导致期间费用率提升4.4g%至19.02%。另外,参股树业公司的投资收益显著增加(约276万元)及有效所得税率从25%降至11%亦助推净利增长。 新产能释放、内销渠道不断深化推动盈利持续较快增长。车模项目己全面投产,福建婴童车模项目预计二季度投产,目前婴童车模在华北等区域销售强劲,预计年内授权汽车品牌将进一步增加,新产能投产后婴童车模有望成为公司新的增长点;公司不断巩固4层内销渠道,并与中油BP、昆仑好客、中石化BP等多家加汕站便利店合作,锁定“有车一族”目标市场,提升车模品牌知名度同时抢占渠道终端。二季度旺季将至,预计公司外销将继续稳定增长,内销增长将加速;未来产能释放与渠道拓展料将推动盈利持续较快增长。 风险因素:获取汽车品牌授权及再授权风险;海内外车模和婴童车模新市场开拓风险;原材料价格波动风险;人民币升值风险。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级。维持2012-2014年EPS 0.74/1.01/1.32元的预测,对应2012/2013/2014年PE 21/15/12倍。近期创业板退市规则发布导致创业板系统性下跌,公司股价受压,随着创业板逐步规范,我们认为有基本面支撑的公司将会表现亮丽。汕头S&K收购尚在审批中,如果考虑收购业绩的增厚,则更加凸显公司价值被低估。我们继续看好公司在品牌、渠道和研发设计的竞争优势和未来成长性。继续维持“买入”的投资评级和前期目标价。

净利增长28%,符合预期。2012年公司一季度实现营业收入3.5亿元,营业利润4131万元,净利润3808万元,分别同比增长-6%、17%、28%。实现EPS0.21元,符合我们预期。 毛利率显著上升推动盈利持续增长。因春节前置导致公司部分销售前移至去年12月,一季度收入同比下滑6%;其中1-2月收入下滑8%一9%,3月起收入增速已回升。因PP、PE粒料等(占原料成本约50%)的价格从去年高位明显回落,公司一季度毛利率同比提高2.91个百分点至22.71%,较2011年的19.gg%环比提升2.72%。因限制性股票激励费用显著增加,管理费用同比上升4g%,期间费用率同比提高1.99个百分点至10.17%。尽管收入增速有一定下跌,但在毛利率显著提升和政府补助(约346万元)推动下,净利同比仍增长28%;若扣除非经常性损益,净利增长约17%。 订单逐渐恢复和盈利能力提升共促业绩稳健增长。4月以来公司订单已经恢复较快增长,销售料将逐渐发力。一季度原油价格增长推动塑料粒料价格小幅反弹,但与去年同期相比仍处于相对低位;同时公司控制原料成本能力较强,预期成本压力有限。我们预计收入稳步增长和盈利水平的昱著提升继续推动公司2012年净利较快增长;增发项目2013年渐次投产有望成为未来几年业绩增长的主要驱动力。 风险因素:国际原油价格和PP、PE等树脂价格大幅上涨风险;定增项目投产慢于预期风险;新市场和新客户开拓风险等。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级。公司柔印无溶剂和异型注塑包装等增发项目料将于2013年起陆续投产,产能的释放料将推动2012-2014年净利年复合增长28%,我们预计公司2012/2013/2014年EPS各为1.05/1.35/1.63元(考虑定增摊薄后为0.91/1.18/1.42元),对应2012/2013/2014年PE 15/11/9倍。我们认为目前公司价值被低估,其增发项目带来的产能扩张与盈利能力提升尚未充分反映在股价中,维持公司18.20元目标价以及“买入”的投资评级。

净利下降26%,业绩符合预期。全年实现营业收入8.40亿元,营业利润1.06亿元,净利润1.06亿元,分别同比增长15%、-36%和-26%。实现EPS 0.59元,基本符合预期。 收入增长逐季加速,毛利率下滑和费用率上升导致净利下跌。受到下游电子消费品需求增速放缓负面影响,公司新厂产能利用率较低,收入全年增长15%,但增速逐季加快;分产品来看,重型和轻型包装收入分别增长26%和18%。因新厂未达产,固定资产折1日大幅增加等影响,综合毛利率同比下降4.29%至31.16%。同时期间费用率从2010年12.46%显著提高至2011年18.47%,共同导致营业利润下降36%;因获取政府补助约1978万元,净利润下滑约26%。公司经营现金净流入同比下降73%至约3528万元,投资现金净流出约4.35亿元,全年现金净流出约4.76亿元,资产负债率约15%。 产能利用率料将提升,费用率有望下行共同推动盈利持续增长。2012年公司新开拓的国际大客户订单将陆续从小批量转向量产,东莞、苏州和重庆新厂产能利用率将进一步提高,收入增长将加速,我们预计公司2012/2013年收入分别增长48%/38%; 2012年起随着收入增长提速,我们预计公司毛利率将稳步回稳,同时在高位的期间费用率逐步下降,净利率有望逐年回升。 风险因素:新厂产能达产慢于预期;大量新产能上马可能冲击公司盈利水平; 新区域市场客户的开拓低于预期。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级。因为公司产能大幅增加导致毛利率下滑,我们下调2012/2013年盈利约12%和17%,并给出2014年业绩预测,预计公司2012/2013/2014年EPS分别为0.93/1.31/1.68元,对应PE 19/14/11倍。预计公司2012年起新厂产能利用率将提升,盈利能力也将逐步回稳。我们根据轻工行业(剔除造纸与ST股)2012年平均估值21倍,给予19.53元目标价。 维持“增持”评级。

净利微增,业绩低于预期约9%。2011年公司实现营业收入19.2亿元,营业利润8529万元,净利润7415万元,分别同比增长26%、10%和4%。EPS0.21元,低于我们预期(0.23元),因利润率低于预期。利润分配预案拟每10股派发现金红利1.00元f含税)。 收入增速有所放缓,净利率逐季回稳。因经济增速放缓导致包装需求疲软,公司收入增速逐季放缓,全年增长26%,低于前三季的35%。分地区来看,华中地区收入同比增长45%,收入贡献由2010年的38%提升至2011年的44%,是公司收入增长的主要驱动力。尽管原料成本上升使得公司综合毛利率同比下降0.44%至16.46%,但单季毛利率逐季回稳,下半年毛利率较上半年提升1.97个百分点至17.41%。公司期间费用率同比上升0.51%至11.40%,同时有效所得税率升至21%(去年同期仅15%),导致净利增长低于收入增速。综上,公司净利率由前三季的3.75%继续环比回稳至3.86%。 收购力拓北方市场,产能释放和利润率回稳助推盈利增长。公司拟与子公司武汉华艺共同投资约3400万元收购天津兴汇聚100%股权,并计划在天津投资1.6亿元新建年产7500万平米的预印纸箱项目,加速拓展华北和东北市场;公司继武汉和重庆项目后继续布局全国。海宁新厂预计将于年中投产; 武汉、重庆和天津项目预计将于2013年渐次投产,产能释放有望推动公司未来业绩增长。2012年前2月箱板和瓦楞纸价格各跌15%和8%,成本压力有一定缓解。但近期玖龙、理文等箱板纸龙头在酝酿涨价,计划上调100-200元/吨。我们认为逾百万吨原纸产能或将投产,纸价大幅上涨可能性较低,预计将持稳。我们预计公司毛利率和净利率未来2-3年逐渐恢复正常水平。 风险因素:新客户的开拓情况;新厂集中投产导致销售/管理费用率攀升; 箱板纸和瓦楞纸价格上涨可能带来原料成本压力。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级。我们调整合兴包装2012/2013/2014年EPS预测各至0.30/0.41/0.52元(2011年0.21元),对应2012/2013/2014年PE 28/21/16倍。2012年起产能投放和盈利水平有望恢复,而公司净利增长亦可能将随之加速,预计2012-2014年公司净利年复合增长率望达35%。考虑到公司的成长性,根据PEG=1倍给予公司7.39元目标价,维持“买入”投资评级。

净利增长7%,业绩符合预期。公司全年共实现营业收入28.6亿元,营业利润3.5亿元,净利润2.7亿元,分别同比增长lg%、5%、/70。EPS为1.11元,符合预期。拟每10股转增10股并派现金股利10元(含税)。 毛利率显著下跌抑制盈利增长。尽管受欧债危机负面影响,公司最大的市场欧洲(收入占比达71%)收入仅同比增长g%,但北美市场实现快速增长,同比增长约60%,收入贡献从2010年的17%提升至2011年的24%,驱动总体收入稳定增长。因铝型材、钢管等主要原料价格普涨超过10%,而产品售价未完全消化成本上涨,毛利率同比下滑约5%至22.32%。因超募资金的利息收入与汇兑收益大幅增加,期间费用率同比下降约3%至8.85%。毛利率显著下跌导致净利增速低于收入增速。因固定资产投资加大及应收账款和存款显著增加,公司现金流净流出约7亿元;资产负债率约22%。 北美需求较旺,产能释放推动盈利增长。进入2012年一季度,我们调研了解到公司欧洲的订单需求尚未明显复苏;因美国经济近期出现回暖,北美订单需求持续强劲,有望实现40%以上的增长。主要原料价格目前稳定在较高水平,我们预计公司的毛利率保持平稳。斯产能方面,年产345万件户外休闲用品项目二期己试生产,预计将于2012年完成投产;年产470万件户外休闲用品项目和物流中心项目预计最早2013年开始贡献业绩,2014年完成全部建设。我们预计,公司2012年盈利有望继续稳定增长,2013-2014年因募投项目投产或致盈利增长加速。 风险因素:人民币升值风险;原材料价格上涨风险;出口退税率下调的风险; 海外市场需求疲弱,新市场开拓进度慢于预期等。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级。我们维持浙江永强2012/2013年EPS各为1.31/1.74元(2011年1.11元)的预测,预计2014年EPS为2.40元,现价对应2012/2013/2014年PE各为20/15/11倍。随着数项募投项目产能释放,我们预计公司2012-2014年净利的年复合增长率有望达2g%。根据轻工行业(剔除造纸)2012年平均估值PE 22倍,给予公司28.82元目标价,维持“增持”的投资评级。

盈利持续高增长,业绩符合预期。2011年实现营业收入4.4亿元,营业利润9384万元,净利润8112万元,分别同比增长37%、52%、45%。EPS为0.51元,符合我们预期。拟每10股派现金1元(含税)。 内外销快速增长、利润率提升推动盈利增长。2011年内销同比增长62%,占收入比重从2010年的28%提升至33%;同时外销维持较快增长,其中收入贡献最大(约39%)的欧洲地区同比增长31%。尽管原料成本上涨致车模毛利率同比下滑约1%,但高毛利率(34.70%)的车模销售贡献仍由2010年的85%提升至2011年的90%,公司产品结构不断优化;并且玩具车等其他产品毛利率同比增加4%-11%,推动综合毛利率同比提高0.89%至33.84%。 公司成本实现有效控制,期间费用率同比下降0.76%至14.20%。收入快速增长、毛利率提升和费用率下降推动盈利显著增长。公司现金流良好,经营现金净流入约1亿元,资产负债率约19%。 产能释放和产业链整合共助业绩持续增长。尽管春节提前导致公司2012年一季度有一个月销售旺季提前至去年四季度,但公司的内外销订单仍然充裕;随着动态、静态车模和婴童车模的新产能进一步释放,公司产品线不断丰富,产品结构继续优化;有效利用超募资金先后收购上游包装供应商树业公司和PS供应商汕头SK(尚需证监会审核),稳定上游原料供应,加速产业链整合。我们认为产能释放和收购标的业绩贡献有望共同推动公司盈利持续增长。 风险因素:获取汽车品牌授权及再授权风险;海内外车模和婴童车模新市场开拓风险;原材料价格波动风险;人民币升值风险。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级。我们预计公司2012-2014年EPS分别为0.74/1.01/1.32元(2012/2013年原预测各为0.78/1.11元),对应2012/2013/2014年PE 20/15/11倍。我们认为公司将凭借品牌、渠道和研发设计优势引领车模行业的发展,看好公司未来3-5年的成长性。根据文娱轻工2012年25倍平均估值,给予公司18.53元的目标价。值得注意的是我们尚未考虑汕头S&K收购对业绩的增厚,更加凸显公司目前被低估。维持“买入”的投资评级。

业绩预测及评级 永新股份2012/2013年EPS预测分别为1.09/1.25元,对应PE分别为13/12倍,当前价14.57元,目标价17.77元。假设公司以现价完成定增(按3053万股测算),增发摊薄后2012/2013年EPS分别为0.93元和1.07元。新项目有望在2013年陆续投产,达产后预计将带来逾9亿元和1.4亿元的收入和税前利润,我们暂未包括在2013年盈利预测中。我们认为公司估值较低,同时盈利成长确定;在客户资源、市场规模和经营管理上具有显著的竞争优势;定增扩产升级且提升盈利水平驱动业绩持续增长。维持“买入”评级,暂维持前期盈利预测。

风险提示。国际原油价格和PP、PE等树脂原料价格大幅上涨风险;新客户和新市场开拓风险。 业绩预测及评级。我们看好公司在客户资源、市场规模和经营管理上所具有的显著的竞争优势,同时认为其盈利增长确定(净利2011-2013年年复合增速预计达24%)。暂维持前期盈利预测,即预测2012/13年EPS分别为1.09/1.25元(2011年为0.81元),根据轻工行业(剔除造纸行业)2011年平均估值22倍计,我们预测公司2012/13年PE分别为12/10倍(2011年为16倍),当前价为13.05元,目标价为17.77元,维持“买入”评级。

业绩预测及评级。 星辉车模2011/12/13年EPS分别为0.52/0.78/1.09元,2011/12/13年PE分别为34/23/16倍,当前价17.85元,目标价20.28元,维持“买入”评级。初步预计收购SK后将增厚公司2012EPS约15%。因收购方案尚需股东大会审议及证监会审批,我们暂不调整前期盈利预测。自公司2011年10月26日停牌以来,创业板估值回调,系统性下跌约16%;同时收购方案对公司的盈利水平和财务状况短期有不利的影响,公司今日复牌后,股价预计将有下行的风险。但因公司在品牌、内销渠道的显著竞争优势,我们仍然看好公司作为国内车模品牌龙头未来3-5年的成长。公司2011年估值若下跌至28倍以下(玩具行业平均估值),建议积极参与。

盈利增长37%,业绩符合预期。1-9月实现营业收入41.29亿元,营业利润2.58亿元,净利润1.83亿元,分别同比增长31%、42%、37%。前三季实现EPS0.36元,基本符合预期。 风险因素:国际浆价受供求以及汇率波动等影响上涨幅度难以准确把握,可能会导致吨纸毛利低于预期;纸品需求疲弱促使纸价下跌。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级:博汇纸业(11/12/13年EPS0.50/0.67/1.04元,对应PE13/10/6倍,当前价6.68元,目标价7.52元,“买入”评级)。因白卡纸价回调及财务费用率高于预期,我们下调11年EPS约16%至0.50元,暂维持12/13年盈利预测。公司三季度在行业中表现突出,盈利水平持稳。由于白卡供求关系良好,我们预计其较高的景气度有望维持到2012年下半年,而公司对白卡敏感度为业内最高,将充分受益。维持“买入”评级,根据11年造纸行业平均PE15倍,给予目标价7.52元。

盈利微增,业绩低于预期。1-9月实现营业收入62.50亿元,营业利润5.38亿元,净利润5.03亿元,分别同比变动+8%、-20%、+1%。EPS为0.50元,业绩低于预期。 毛利率下滑、费用率上升导致营业利润下跌,财政补贴保净利增长。因三季度需求和纸价疲弱,公司前三季度收入增速由上半年的13%环比下降至8%。因主导产品铜版纸和非涂布文化纸价格三季度出现下滑,前三季度毛利率同比下降1.27%至19.01%,三季度单季毛利率环比下降2.50%至18.3g%。因则+务费用大幅增长65%,期间费用率同比上升1.8g%至11.23%。 毛利率下降和期间费用率上升使营业利润同比下降20%。因获取约1.19亿元政府补助(约占营业利润的22%),净利微增0.76%。公司通过银行借款(增长55%)和发行中期票据缓解资金紧张,资产负债率近70%。 需求疲弱抑制纸价,盈利水平压力持续。进入三季度纸品需求较淡,各纸种价格纷纷下跌,其中铜版纸因产能集中释放,第三季度下跌7-8%。尽管近期浆价等原料价格显著下跌,但是因下游纸品需求不振,纸价目前仍然疲弱,同时纸品供给压力较大,将抑制公司盈利水平。另外资金紧张,财务费用率较高,公司将继续推进定增项目审批。新产能方面,30万吨高档文化纸项目已于10月投产;20万吨溶解浆预计将于四季度投产;广西9.8万H屯的溶解浆项目预计将于2012年底投产。以上几个新产能项目陆续投产将推进未来2—3年收入增长。 风险因素:国际浆价大幅波动风险;白卡、双胶等纸种价格下跌风险;铜版纸因供求关系紧张,景气度可能下行。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级:预测公司2011/12/13年EPS 0.66/0.98/1.19元,当前价对应2011/12/13年PE 13/9/7倍。因公司收入增速及毛利率低于预期,我们下调2011-13年盈利预测9-15%。目前公司估值较低,新项目的产能陆续投放将推动净利2011-2013年CAGR达到23%。根据201 1年造纸行业平均PE 15倍,给予目标价9.93元,维持“买入”评级。