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研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
万科A 房地产业 2013-11-05 9.48 -- -- 9.22 -2.74%
9.22 -2.74%
详细
1~3Q13 EPS Rmb0.56, up 21.3% YoY 1~3Q13 revenue grew 37.5% YoY to Rmb63.42bn and net profit rose 21.3% YoY to Rmb6.16bn, or Rmb0.56/sh. ASP booked recovering. In 3Q13, Vanke booked Rmb21.56bn of property sales with a total GFA of 1.92mn sqm. The unitprice of Rmb11,217/sqm was up 7.2% from 1H13’s level and close to the 2012’s Rmb11,295/sqm. Presale proceeds wereRmb192.86bn and the ASP of projects sold but unbooked was Rmb11,098/sqm. 3Q13 gross margin remained relatively low. 1~3Q13 gross margin was down 3.1ppt YoY to 22.9%, also below the 2012level of 26.0%. 3Q13 after-tax gross margin was 21.5%, flat with the 2Q13 level. The impact of price cuts after 2011 andprojects with high land cost continued to be felt. Net gearing ratio stable. Cash in hand was Rmb37.01bn at end-3Q13, similar to the level at end-1H13. Net gearing ratio was39.9%, down 1.6ppt from end-1H13. Overall financial position remains solid. Trends to watch Maintain 2013 sales forecast of Rmb170bn. 1~3Q13 contracted sales reached Rmb128.5bn and historically 4Q salesrepresent 25~30% of annual sales. Aggressive land acquisition in 3Q13. Vanke accelerated land acquisition in 3Q13. It bought 9.92mn sqm of land in thequarter (15.04mn sqm in 1H13) for Rmb34.7bn or Rmb3,500/sqm. Spending on land acquisition in 3Q13 represented 77% ofsales over the same period, higher than the 39% in 1H13. Earnings forecast We keep 2013/14e EPS at Rmb1.39/Rmb1.60, representing YoY growth of 21.9% and 15.1%. Valuation and recommendation The stock is trading at 6.4x/5.5x 2013/14e P/E and at a 29% discount to 2013 NAV. Reiterate BUY on strong sales growthand resilience.
首开股份 房地产业 2013-10-25 5.45 -- -- 5.79 6.24%
5.79 6.24%
详细
1~3Q13 EPS Rmb0.252 (+43.4% YoY), in line 1~3Q13 operating revenue was Rmb6.31bn (+43.5% YoY); net profit+43.4% YoY to Rmb570mn or Rmb0.252/sh, in line withexpectations. 3Q13 operating revenue +131.7% YoY to Rmb2.33bnand net profit surged 413% YoY to Rmb212mn. Sound contracted sales & cash collection: Contracted sales GFA+16.7% YoY to 1.147mn sqm and contracted sales proceeds grew18.8% YoY to Rmb15.6bn. Gross margin continued to drop due to settlements of projectsoutside of Beijing. 3Q13 gross margin was only 26.0%, lower than27.3% in 1H13 and 28.0% in FY12. Net gearing ratio stayed high: Net gearing ratio of 175.0% islargely flat with end-1H13’s level. Cash at hand fell Rmb2bn fromend-1H13 to Rmb12.94bn. Liabilities due in one year and short-termloans totaled Rmb11.86bn, indicating gradually increasing financialpressure. Trends to watch Relatively less resources in Beijing: New projects launched in 1~3Qhave a total GFA of ~1.03mn sqm (0.27mn sqm in Beijing); with GFAof ~0.27mn/0.47mn sqm in/outside Beijing which remained unsold asof end-3Q13. The company acquired 1.93mn sqm of land in 1~3Q ata total cost of Rmb13.55bn; 0.264mn sqm was in Beijing, acquired ata total cost of Rmb4.54bn. We maintain our 2013 sales forecast of Rmb19bn. We expect thecompany to launch 0.25mn/0.2mn sqm of GFA within/outside Beijingin 4Q. We still expect it will launch a total of 1.95mn sqm GFA in2013 and maintain our full year sales forecast at Rmb19bn. Earnings revisions We maintain our 2013/14 EPS forecasts at Rmb0.81/Rmb0.92. Valuation and recommendation The stock is currently trading at 6.8x/6x 2013/14e P/E, a 45%discount to 2013 NAV. Given its relatively low valuation amongA-shares and the Beijing market’s robust performance in 2013,we maintain a BUY rating.
华侨城A 社会服务业(旅游...) 2013-10-25 6.14 -- -- 6.31 2.77%
6.31 2.77%
详细
EPS +80.1% YoY to Rmb0.40, slightly above forecasts 1~3Q13 operating revenue +66.7% YoY to Rmb17.24bn; net profit+80.1% YoY to Rmb2.9bn or Rmb0.40/sh, ~10% above our forecast. Tourism business beat expectations. Given July’s opening of TianjinHappy Valley and Shanghai Happy Valley Maya Water Park, as wellas contributions from Wuhan Happy Valley Maya Beach Park, weestimate the company received >20mn tourists in 1~3Q13 andearned >Rmb3bn in revenue from pure tourism business in 1~3Q. Property business’ apparent cash collection close to Rmb20bn. OCT Chunshuian was launched in 3Q, selling at Rmb64,000/sqm tocontribute sales of Rmb5.5bn. OCT recorded Rmb13.8bn of sales in1H13, ~Rmb11bn from the property segment; this cash inflowincreased by Rmb9.27bn in 3Q13. Net gearing ratio plunged. There was Rmb10.55bn cash at hand asof end-3Q13, largely flat with year-beginning. The net gearing ratiofell 23ppt from year-beginning to 48.1%. Liabilities due in one yearand short-term loans totaled Rmb7.54bn. We believe OCT faceslimited financial risks. Trends to watch We maintain our forecast that the company will receive 28mntourists in FY13. During the National Day holiday, 1.6mn touristsvisited OCT’s parks. We estimate the company has received 22~23mntourists YTD and this will reach 28mn by year-end. In 2014 this figurecould top 30mn, earlier than expected. Earnings revisions We maintain our 2013/14 EPS forecasts at Rmb0.61/Rmb0.70. Valuation and recommendation The stock is currently trading at 9.9x/8.7x 2013/14e P/E, a 20%discount to 2013e NAV. We are positive on the company’sdevelopment capacity and its business model of incorporating tourismand property businesses. Maintain BUY.
招商局B 房地产业 2012-04-23 13.46 11.79 14.80% 14.81 10.03%
15.83 17.61%
详细
Valuation and recommendation We maintain 2012/13e EPS at Rmb1.88/Rmb2.14. The stock istrading at 6.2x/5.4x 2012/13e P/E, implying a 61% discount to 2012eNAV. We like its rapid turnover business style, and consistent andstrong sales may help the company show defensiveness in 2Q whenthe industry is expected to decline. Maintain BUY.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名