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最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
光明乳业 食品饮料行业 2015-01-15 18.60 22.18 52.36% 18.98 2.04%
19.97 7.37%
详细
We initiate coverage on Bright Dairy with an OUTPERFORM rating. Bright is the largest dairy company in Shanghai (above 50% share), the third-largest dairy company in China (an 8% share). We forecast Bright's earnings will see a 46% CAGR over 2014-16, on a sales CAGR of 14%. Full report Bright created Mosilian, a UHT yoghurt product in 2009. It has chilled yoghurt texture, offers certain nutrition, requires no cold-chain support, and enjoys a 40-50% gross margin. We forecast its sales to grow 27% CAGR over 2014-16 (36% of sales and 45% segment share in 2016) and drive margin expansion. We believe the popularity of Mosilian would help Bright expand out of East China (60%/70% sales/earnings). It added 500k new POS in 2014, lifting total POS count to 700k from 200k in 2013. Our target price of Rmb24 is based on 36x 2015E P/E (implying 0.8x PEG). This compares with: (1) our target 24x P/E and 1.2x PEG for Yili, (2) target 25.5x P/E and 1.2x PEG for Mengniu, and (3) trading 1.5-2x PEG for Tingyi, Hengan, WW, Sunart, and TT.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名