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Mark Kong

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最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
华润三九 医药生物 2015-08-31 24.25 32.32 26.72% 26.89 9.35%
28.32 16.78%
详细
Q215 earnings miss consensus. 2Q15 earnings was up8% y-o-y to Rmb288m, 8% below consensus estimates. We believe this is due to sales growth slowdown. Publichospitals’ cost control and decrease of drug store numbersresulting from industry consolidation should have impactedthe sales generated from these two channels. Thus, the yo-y sales growth of the company slowed down from 8% in1Q to 4% in 2Q. With net cash of Rmb1.1bn (Jun-15), thecompany's balance sheet remained strong. But CCMG and margin expansion can drive stablegrowth ahead. Total earnings in 1H15 was Rmb627m. Webelieve the company can achieve our earnings estimates ofRmb1.19bn for 15F and earnings growth of 12%/12% in16F/17F, thanks to: 1) CCMG business is projected to makeup 11-16% of the company’s revenue in 15F-17F. Due tosubstantial increase of production capacity and strongdemand, we forecast the sales of this segment to grow by50%/30%/30% in 15F/16F/17F. As CCMG is a moreprofitable product for the company, increasing contributionfrom CCMG will help to expand its net margin from 14.2%in 2014 to 15.4% in 2017F; 2) thanks to persistent effortsto control cost, operating cost % (distribution + admin +others) in sales has dropped by 0.7ppt y-o-y in 2Q15. Webelieve this trend will continue and the ratio will drop from45% in 2014 to 44% in 2015. Maintain BUY. In view of the stable earnings growthmainly driven by CCMG, we maintain our BUY call with TPunchanged at Rmb36.2 (based on 28x 12-month forwardPE, representing 20% discount to our target PE of CCMGindustry leader China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570HK)).
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名