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最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
中国银行 银行和金融服务 2014-01-07 2.57 1.96 -- 2.76 7.39%
2.76 7.39%
详细
We believe 2014 is going to be volatile for China banks, on both stockperformance and in terms of operating environment. We believe BOC will delivermore stable returns than its peers due to more resilient NIM and lower exposure toareas with high regulatory risks, such as interbank and WMP. BOC is trading at10% to H-share banks and a 20% discount (13E P/B) to ABC, CCB and ICBC, onaverage. We believe this discount will narrow as the market appreciates a stablebank with the highest dividend yield (Table 1) amid a volatile market. We upgradeBOC to OW from a Neutral rating, with our price targets revised up by ~2% toHKD4.35 and RMB3.4 for H/A shares. Our PT implies 2014E P/B of 0.9x. More stable NIM than peers. 18% and 8% of BOC’s average interest earningassets are from overseas or domestic FX operations in 1H13, respectively, thehighest exposure among China banks. We believe that the NIM of these twoareas are likely to be stable or even slightly improve in 2014 and 2015, and thusBOC’s overall NIM is set to be more stable compared to peers, in our view. Key beneficiary of recovering export growth. BOC has higher concentrationin export-related sectors, and is more active in trade finance business. Webelieve a recovery in export growth will be positive for its fee income and assetquality. In addition, a macro recovery in developed markets should be accretiveto the profit growth of BOC's overseas subsidiaries. Concerns on RMB appreciation overplayed: BOC has hedged its net FXposition by using FX swaps, and thus net position has been negative since 2012(Table 12). In the past few years, despite RMB appreciation, BOC hasrecognized net FX gains. And the impact on equity has been immaterial. Upside on capital not being recognized: BOC has outstanding convertiblebonds of RMB39.4bn. We calculate that adjusting for dividend payout, strikeprice at mid 2015 will be RMB2.43, lower than current A-share trading price ofRMB2.56. This will likely encourage a higher debt-to-equity conversion rate. We calculate that full conversion would lift 2015e tier 1 ratio by 36bps. Key downside risks: a) worse-than-expected asset quality as growth slows downin China; b) worse-than-expected contraction on domestic RMB NIM amidinterest rate de-regulation; c) regulatory risks on WMP and interbank business.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名