金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
Rebecca Y Wen

摩根大通

研究方向:

联系方式:

工作经历:

20日
短线
60日
中线
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最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
长城汽车 交运设备行业 2015-04-22 52.29 17.19 120.53% 59.50 12.05%
58.59 12.05%
详细
Great Wall Motor (GMW)’s 1Q15 results were moderately (~5%) above ourforecasts. Although the stock's remarkable rally (e.g. ~80% in six months or ~30%YTD for both H and A shares vs MSCI China Auto Index up ~28%/30% in sixmonths/YTD) might prompt investors to consider taking profit, we recommendholding on to long positions through its aggressive, and thus far very successful,model cycle. We lift our earnings forecasts by 4% and PT to HK$66/Rmb62. Why can the stock go higher? We upgraded GWM to OW in Oct-14 (clickhere) on the belief that the sales performance of its high-end SUV (e.g. H9)would beat market expectations, whilst the company’s aggressive model cyclewould further boost its earnings and eventually drive the stock's multiple. YTDconsensus FY15 estimates have been raised by 10%, while the 12-monthforward PER of the H-shares, for instance, also expanded from 9x in Jan-15 tothe current 11x based on our analysis. Despite this, we anticipate there is moreto go because:1.From a top-down view, we believe the SUV segment will continue to enjoysuperior growth in China until penetration hits or exceeds 30% (vs current25%). GWM is best positioned to benefit from this secular boom, given itshighest concentration (>95% of revenue) in SUV across all OEMs. 2. GWM’s comprehensive model portfolio and cycle (Table 3), plus value for moneymodels, suggest rivals, foreign or local, may not catch up anytime soon. This isbest proven by the negligible discount (1.4%) of its most popular SUV, H6-despite it entering the fifth year of model cycle. 1Q15 earnings up 26% yoy: We summarize the results call in this report. Rating, risks: We retain OW on H/A share with new Dec-15 PT of HK$66/Rmb62 (from HK$60/Rmb56) based on 13.5/15x forward PER, respectively. Risks: worse than expected sales and margins.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名