Cover
VALUATION OF
ETHANOLTECHNOLOGIESLIMITED
乙醇技术有限公司评估
[21 FEBRUARY 2017]
[2017 年 2 月 21 日]
DRAFT 草案
Draft for DiscussionPurposes 草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation of Ethanol Technologies Limited 乙醇技术有限公司估值
Contents 目录
1. ExecutiveSummary 经营综合报告 3
2. Introduction 介绍 7
3. Backgroundto the Business 业务背景 9
4. ValuationMethodology 评估方法 12
5. EthanolPlantAssumptions 乙醇工厂的假设 13
6. Ethtec BaseCaseAssumptions Ethtec 基本情况的假设 17
7. DiscountRate 贴现率 22
8. EnterpriseValue 企业价值 24
9. ScenarioAnalysis 方案分析 26
10. ScenarioOutput andConclusion 方案产出和结论 29
11. ValuationSummary 评估小结 31
Appendix1: Glossary 附件 1 术语表 32
Appendix2: Standardsof Value 附件 2 价值标准 33
Appendix3: Levelsof Value 附件 3 价值水平 36
Appendix4: ValuationApproaches 附件 4 评估方法 38
Appendix5: EthanolPlantProjections 附件 5 乙醇工厂的预测 42
Appendix6: Ethanol/XylitolMixedPlantProjections 附件 6 乙醇/木糖醇混合工厂的预测 44
Appendix7: Ethtec Projections- BaseCase 附件 7Ethtec 预测-基本情况 46
Appendix8: Ethtec Projections- UpsideCase 附件 8Ethtec 预测-上行情况 48
Appendix9: Ethtec Projections- LowCase 附件 9Ethtec 预测-下行情况 50
Appendix10: Ethtec Projections- FailureCase 附件 10Ethtec 预测-失败情况 52
Appendix11: DiscountRateFramework 附件 11 贴现率框架 53
Appendix12: WeightedAverageCost of Capital 附件 12 加权平均资本成本 55
Appendix13: Disclaimers 附件 13 免责声明 57
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估 Ethtec 资产评估
1. ExecutiveSummary 经营综合报告
1.1 Background 背景
Ethanol iswidelyaccepted asanimportant componentof theglobaldesire toreducedependenceon fossilfuels suchas
petroleum fuels. Asa result ofsustainabilityissuesassociated withfirstgenerationbiofuels madefrom edibleagricultural
feedstocks (“1G”), manycountries(suchas Australia, US, China, Brazil) are seeking technologyto move awayfromfood
crop-based biofuelsandinto second generationethanolproduction(“2G”)whichusesnon-food crops (or partsof crops) and
agricultural waste material asfeedstocks.作为减少化石燃料（石油燃料）依赖的潜在替代品，乙醇在全球范围内受到广泛
重点关注。因为第一代由食用农业原料（“1 代”）制成的生物燃料存在可持续性问题，许多国家，如澳大利亚、美国、中国、
巴西，正在寻求一种技术，抛弃以作物为基础的生物燃料，进入二代的乙醇产品（“2 代”），该乙醇产品使用非农作物(或部
分农作物)和农业废料作为原料。
Ethanol TechnologiesLimited ("Ethtec") is developingtechnology(the"Ethtec Process")
forsustainableproductionofethanol fromlignocellulosic (woodyand fibrous) materialsin significant volumes to meet fuel
demand(the “Project”). Ifsuccessful,theProjectisanticipated toaddress
manyissuestypicallyassociatedwith2Gethanolproduction suchas:
乙醇技术有限公司（简称 Ethtec）正在开发一种技术（Ethtec 工艺），实现可持续地从木质纤维(木材和纤维)材料中大
量生产乙醇，以满足燃料需求（“项目”）。若该技术成功，预计项目会解决许多与 2 代乙醇生产有关的典型问题，如：
◆ Production of ethanol at a cost thatis competitive (without subsidy)withpetroleum fuelsderived from crude
oilafter paying areasonableprice for thefeedstock 成本问题：在支付合理的原料费之后，在无任何补贴的情况下，乙
醇生产成本可与来自原油的石油燃料的成本相媲美；
◆ Zero liquidwastewhich mayreducethe environmentalimpact of ethanol productionandenhance thenetreductionin
greenhouse gasemissionobtained fromtheuse of ethanolasfuel 零废液：可能降低乙醇生产对环境产生的影响，并且使
用乙醇作为燃料，会大大减少温室气体的排放量；
◆ Compared withother proposed processes(whichtypicallyuseenzymesto releasethe structural sugars) theEthtec
process willutiliseacid hydrolysistoreleasethe sugarsfromfeedstock which meanstheprocess is insensitivetothe type of
feedstock utilisedand canacceptawidevarietyof feedstock inputs, including mixedinputs.与其他拟议的工艺相比（通常
用酶来分解结构糖），Ethtec 工艺会利用酸解反应来释放原料中的糖，这就是说该工艺对使用的原料不敏感，并且能
接受各种各样的原料，包括混合原料。
The Project includes four principlephases,of whichthe first twohave been successfullydemonstrated andinvolvedthe
mostnovelaspectsofthetechnology. Phase 3and4involve processeswhichareexpected tohave significantlyless technical risk
astheypertainto morewidelytestedtechniques,namely, fermentation of the sugarsto ethanol, ethanol recoveryandwaste
treatment. Thework completedtodate couldbe commerciallyexploitedeitherthroughlicensingthe existing processesfor a
number of end usesor alternativelylicensingprocessesthat Ethtecintendsto developunder Phases 3and4.项目包含 4 个主要
阶段，其中前两个阶段已获成功，并涉及技术中最不寻常的方面。阶段 3 和阶段 4 涉及一些工艺，期望这些工艺在涉及更广
泛的成熟技术时，能少些技术风险，也即：糖酵成乙醇，乙醇回收和废物处理。到目前为止完成的工作可进行商业开发，要
么可通过将下面有工艺授权给一些终端用户，或取代工艺授权，Ethtec 意欲在阶段 3 和阶段 4 中自己开发。
1.2 Scope 范围
Ethtec is currentlyseekingadditional capital tofund thenext phase of developmentandisin preliminarynegotiationswith a
thirdpartyinrespectof a potentialequityinvestment. Accordingly,weunderstand that an independent valuation of the Ethtec
Businessis requiredbythedirectors of Ethtec inordertoassistinnegotiating theterms of the potentialinvestmentin Ethtec.
Ethtec hastherefore requestedLeadenhall Corporate Advisory PtyLtd(“Leadenhall”)toprepare areportsetting out
ouropinionas tothe market valueofEthtecas at a current date.Ethtec 当前正为下一阶段的研发寻求额外资金，并正与一个
第三方就潜在的股权投资进行磋商。我们理解：为了有助于磋商该潜在股权投资的条款，Ethtec 的董事们要求对 Ethtec 的
业务进行一次独立评估。因此，Ethtec 已要求 Leadenhall 企业咨询企业有限公司（Leadenhall）准备一份报告，载明就当
前时间我方对 Ethtec 市值的意见。
1.3 Valuation approach and keyassumptions 评估方法和关键性假设
Due tothe earlystagenature of theProjectandthe widerangeofpotentialoutcomes, we haveutilised aprobability
weighted discounted cash flowapproach toassessthe market value of theProject.由于项目早期阶段的属性及广泛的
不确定结果，我们应用了概率加权现金贴现的方法，来评估项目的市值。
We understand that the approach for commercialising the Project is not yet certainas anumber of models maybe
considered includinglicensing theintellectual property("IP")tothirdparties or creatingjoint ventures withother stakeholders
4957 Ethtec Valuation (draft) 21022017 Page 3 of 59
(suchas resourceowners,equipment manufacturers andoff-takeparticipants)to share inthe economicsoftheplants.我们知道
项目商业化的方法还未确定，因为考虑了许多模式，包括将知识产权(“IP”)授与第三方，或与其他利益相关者（如资源所有
者、设备制造商和承购参与者）建立合资企业，分享工厂的经济效益。
Forthepurpose of our analysis,wedetermined thereturnsto Ethtecfrom commercialisationinthe formofaroyalty payment. In
determininganappropriate royaltyrate wehave considered the cash flowsavailableand theprofitabilityofthe
underlyingplants/business toestimate anappropriate shareoftheeconomic profitsto Ethtecas the owner of the IP.
就我们的分析而言，我们确定了 Ethtec 以特许权使用费的形式进行商业化的回报。在确定合适的特许权使用费费率时，我们考
虑了可用的现金流以及基础工厂/企业的盈利能力，从而恰当评估授权知识产权带给 Ethtec 的经济利润。
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In applyingthisapproach wehave consideredthe following scenarios:在应用这种方法时，我们考虑了以下方案:
BaseCase 基本情况
The ethanolproductionvolumes assumedinthe base casereflectthepotentialdemand fromwithin Australia (includinga
nationwide mandatefor use of ethanolin fuelblendsofupto10%)althoughit ispossible that thesevolumes couldbe generated
througha combinationofdomesticand internationalplantcapacitywith Ethtecproviding thetechnical expertise andongoing
researchto support thetechnology.
基本情况下的设定的乙醇产量反映了澳大利亚国内的潜在需求，包括全国范围内乙醇燃料的使用需求最高可达 10%，虽然
在 Ethtec 提供技术知识，并不断进行研究，以支持该技术的情况下，结合国内外产能，这些产量极可能实现的。
Ethtec havealso considered co-production of xylitol aspart oftheir earlystage commercialisation strategy. Xylitol
represents anattractive market given thegrowing trendin alternative sweeteners, the current high costsofxylitol
production and Ethtec'spotentiallylowercostsof production.Ethtec 还考虑将木糖醇联合生产作为其早期商业化战略
的一部分。考虑到日趋明朗化的趋势----木糖醇替代甜味剂、当前木糖醇生产的高成本以及 Ethtec 潜在的低生产成
本，木糖醇展示了一个有吸引力的市场。
This scenarioispremised ontheprojections presentedby Ethtec initsfunding applicationtothe AustralianRenewable
EnergyAgency("ARENA"). Under this scenario,thefirst Ethtecplant will bea mixedethanol/xylitol co-productionplantand all
subsequent Ethtec plantswillproduce onlyethanol(no co-products) withthenumberof plantslimited byan assumed levelof
Australiandemandforethanolfuel. Ethtecwillthen drawa shareof profits fromeach of theseplants through aroyaltyon sales.
We haveassesseda reasonableroyaltytobe[6.0%]to[7.0%] based ontheprojected economics of an
ethanolplant.Thisroyaltyrepresentsan equitable sharing of the economicprofits betweenEthtec,resource
owners,equipment providers andproductoff-takeparticipants havingregard totheirrelative contribution.
该方案是基于 Ethtec 在其向澳大利亚可再生能源机构(ARENA)的资助申请中所提出的预测。在该方案中，Ethtec 的首个
工厂将会是一个乙醇/木糖醇联合生产工厂，并且 Ethtec 在此之后的所有工厂将只生产乙醇(无副产品)，而由于预估中澳
大利亚对乙醇燃料的需求，这些工厂的数量是有限的。然后，Ethtec 将通过销售专利使用费，从这些工厂中抽取一部分利
润。基于一个乙醇工厂的经济预估，我们评估的合理的专利使用费为 6.0%到 7.0%。对于 Ethtec、资源所有者、设备提供
商和产品承购参与者（考虑其相应的出资）来首，
该专利使用费是他们之间对经济利润的公平分享。
Upside Case 上行情况
While thebase caseproductionvolumes areinline withthe potentialdomesticdemand,it isprobable that theEthtec Process
willbe commercialised outsideof Australia toaddressthe significant demandfor2Gtechnologiesin jurisdictions such asUS,
China andBrazil. Whilst no detailedanalysisofthelikelyprofileofanyinternational projectshas been made available
tous,basedondiscussions withEthtec management,wehave estimatedareasonable take-up of the technologyto
befourtimesthatof Australia over time.
虽然基本情况下的产量与潜在的国内需求相符，但 Ethtec 的工艺很有可能将在澳大利亚以外的地方进行商业化，以解决美
国、中国和巴西等国对 2 代技术的巨大需求。虽然 Ethtec 管理层还未对任何国际项目的可能情况进行详细的分析，但我们
估计，随着时间的推移，这项技术的应用将是澳大利亚国内的四倍。
In addition, Ethtec managementbelievethata cost-effectivexylitol productionprocess (such asthrough theEthtec
Process)willenableexpansion of thexylitol market andfuel further demandforxylitolasa sugar alternative. Wehave
therefore incorporatedinternational royaltiesfromutilisation of theEthtec Process anda royaltyon sales of xylitol from two
plantsinto our upside case.
此外，Ethtec 的管理层相信：一种具有成本效益的木糖醇生产工艺(如通过 Ethtec 工艺) 将使木糖醇市场扩大，并进一加
剧木糖醇作为糖替代品的需求。因此，我们已将使用 Ethtec 工艺的国际专利使用费以及两个工厂的木糖醇销售专利使用
费结合到了我们的上涨情况中。
LowCase
The successful completionof Phases3and 4of theresearch anddevelopment oftheEthtecProcessincludes demonstrating
particular levels of efficiencyat fermenting Ethtec sugarsolutionsto ethanolatcommercial scale aswell as demonstratingthe
commercial advantagesina combinedethanolrecoveryandwastetreatmentprocess.Basedon the documentationprovided
anddiscussions withEthtec management, should these processes proveless efficient than
envisaged,commercialisationoftheEthtecProcess would still beachievablebyincorporatingexisting thirdparty processes or
technologyinto theEthtecProcessand / or through commercialising other productswhich could alsobe developed fromthe
sameprocess. There aretherefore awiderange of potential outcomes, inthis instance, in termsofethanol /
xylitolproductionvolumes(which could stillaligntotheBase caseor UpsideCaseas per above) and/ or pricing and
volumesfrom commercialisationof otherproducts such asxylitolonly,bioplastics, etc. As wehave not specifically considered
other potentialproducts or marketsto commercialise theexistingtechnology(whichwould likelyhave alower addressable
market and / or margins),wehave thereforeimplicitlyreflected thispotential inour assessed royaltyrate. As such,for
thepurpose of this scenario,wehaveassumed productionvolumesatsimilar scaleto thebase case,albeit with higherplant
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Draft forDiscussionPurposes 草案用于讨论之目的
Valuation ofEthtec Ethtec 资产评估
operating costsand implicitlylowerroyaltyrevenuesavailable toEthtec.A lowerroyaltyreturn of [2.0%] to [3.0%]has
beenapplied inthis scenarioreflecting thesefactors.
Ethtec 工艺研发中，阶段 3 和阶段 4 的成功实施，包括证明在商业规模下，使用发酵的 Ethtec 糖溶液转化成特定浓度乙醇
的效率，以及证明混合乙醇回收和废物处理过程中的商业优势。基于提供的文档以及与 Ethtec 管理层的讨论，得知这些过
程应该比设想的效率更低，但通过现有的第三方工艺整个到 Ethtec 工艺中，以及/或通过商业化同一个工艺中的其它产品，
Ethtec 工艺的商业化仍然可实现。因此在此例中，存在很多潜在结果，比如从乙醇/木糖醇的产量(仍然可以对应到基本情况
或上行情况中的每种情况)和/或定价，以及其它产品的商业化，如木糖醇，生物塑料等。因为我们没有特别考虑其他可能影
响现有技术商业化（可能会有一个更低可寻址市场和/或利润率）的产品或市场，因此我们已在经评估的专利了费率中含蓄
地反映了这点。所以就这个设想来说，尽管有更高的工厂运营成本，也暗暗地降低了 Ethtec 的版税收入，我们假设产量与
基本情况相似。在反映这些因素的方案中，应用了较低版税收益率[2.0%]到[3.0%]。
Failure Case 失败情况
The final scenariowhichwe haveincludedinouranalysisaccountsfor thefailure of theproject to reachaneconomically viable
commercialisation stage.There couldbe variousfactors contributingtothis outcomeincluding technicalbarriers and alack of
funding. Forthepurposeofthisanalysis, we haveassumedthattheproject is discontinuedat the endof2021 (theexpectedend
point of the researchanddevelopmentproject) withno commercially-viableethanolproduction processes developed.
However,giventhat the technologycouldbe commerciallyexploitedin its currentform,wehave applied alowprobabilitytothis
scenario.
我们的分析中包含的最后一个方案，解释了项目为何没能达到经济上可行的商业化。可能会有各种因素导致这一结果，包
括技术壁垒和资金短缺。就本分析而言，我们假定该项目在 2021 年年底（研发项目的预期终点）停止，同时不存在可行
的商业化乙醇生产过程。然而，考虑到这项技术可以以目前的形式进行商业开发，我们在这个方案下使用了一个低概率。
Details of the underlyingassumptionsforeach scenarioare set out in Section9.
第 9 节列出了每个方案中设想的详细情况。
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We haveassignedthe followingprobabilitiestoeach scenariobasedondiscussion withEthtec management and consideration
of the relativerisks for each scenario:在与 Ethtec 管理层讨论，并考虑每个方案的相对风险之后，我们为每个方案分配了如
下概率：
ProbabilityWeighting 概率加权
Scenarios 情况 Probability 概率
BaseCase 50%
UpsideCase 20%
LowCase 25%
FailureCase 失败 5%
1.4 Outputs and calculations 产出和计算
The outputsfrom our analysisare set out below:我们的分析结果如下：
Scenario Output ($'000)方案产出
Enterprise Value 企业价值
Scenarios 方案 Evaluation 评估 Probability 概率
Low 低 High
高
Base case Mostlikelyoutcomegiventhelowremainingtechnical 50% 45,376 52,857
基本情况 risks of the project, as advisedbyEthtec, and theinterest
in theprojectshownbypotentialinvestors 就如 Ethtec 的建议
一样，最有可能的结果是该项目的技术风险较低，并且潜在投资者表
现出对该项目的兴趣。
The underlyingassumptionsinthis scenariogenerally
representreasonablylikelyor conservative
estimatesoffutureperformance 本方案中的假设基本显示了对未来绩
效的合理可能评估或保守评估
Upside case Given the significant ramp-upinforecast revenue under 20% 110,190 128,742
上行情况 this scenarioandthe levelof uncertaintyinvolvedin
estimating take-up rates for two distinctproduction processes
(ethanolandxylitol) which are stillin development,wehaveassigned
this scenarioalow probabilityweighting 考虑到在本方案下预测收入的大幅
增长以及不确定性的程度，涉及估计两种不同生产工艺（仍在开发中）的吸纳率
（乙醇和木糖醇），我们已给该方案分配了一个低概率加权。
In addition, xylitol is stilla relativelynewopportunityfor Ethtec
(comparedto ethanol) whichhas not been explored ingreat detail
In addition, xylitol is still a relatively new opportunity for Ethtec
(compared to ethanol) which has not been explored in great detail
此外，木糖醇虽然没有大规模开发（与乙醇相比），但对于 Ethtec
仍是一个新机遇。
Lowcase From discussionwithEthtec management, it isbelieved 25% 12,302 19,880
下行情况 thatit is morelikelyforcommercial scale testingto
produce less-than-optimal production efficienciesthan for the
entireEthtec Processtobe considered commercially unfeasible. As
such, we considerthis scenariolesslikely than thebase case but
morelikelythanthefailure case 基于与 Ethtec 管理的讨论，我们认为商业规
模测试的生产效率要低于整个 Ethtec 工艺的生产效率，Ethtec 工艺在商业上被认
为是不可行的。因此，我们认为这种情况比基本情况更少，但比失败案例可能性
却更大。
Failure case Given the current stageof theproject, the lowremaining 5% (6,530) (6,530)
失败情况 technical risks, the ongoing ARENAfundingapplication
and interest from other investors,this scenario appearsto
bereasonablyunlikely 虑到项目当前阶段的现状、遗留的技术方面的低风险、
阿瑞娜（ARENA）正在审核的融资申请，以及其他投资者的利益，这个方案似乎
不太可能发生。下表格详细描述了每个所选的概率值以及每个方案评估值的假设。
47,475 56,821
Probabilityweightedvalue 概率加权值
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Assessedvalue($'000)估定价值($'000)
Low High
Probabilityweightedvalue 概率 [47,475] [56,821]
Assessedvalue 估定价值 [50,000] [60,000]
加权值
In selectingour assessedvaluation rangewehave considered theprobabilityweightingsabove aswellas:在选择估定价值范围的
时候，我们已经考虑了上面的概率权重，以及:
◆ The potentialforfurther developmentand commercialisationoftheDiesehol technology. This technologywouldallow
ethanol tobeblendedwithdiesel fuelinvarying degreesforuseineither existingdiesel enginesor engineswith minor
modifications.Wenote that this couldbe a sizable marketopportunitybut is subject to significant
uncertaintyinrespectofwhenor if thiswillbe commercialisedandthe modelfor doing so. Our
scenariosabovedonotincludeanyrevenue from Diesohol 进一步开发和商业化柴油乙醇技术的潜力。这种技术可以使乙醇
任意与柴油混合，用于现有的柴油发动机或小幅改良发动机。我们注意到，这可能是一个相当大的市场基于机遇，但就
何时或是否会商业化以及商业户模型方面仍有存在很不确定性。上述方案不含任何与柴油有关的收入。
◆ To theextenttheProject is successful, Ethtecwould likelybe adesirableacquisition target for a number of large
corporations (suchasenergycompanies,equipment manufacturersor resource owners) that maybe willingtopaya
strategic premiumgiven thepotential synergies that maybe availablebased onexistinginstalled capacityand/or
cheaperaccessto feedstock 若项目成功，Ethtec 很可能成为一个令许多大公司（例如能源公司、设备制造商或资源所
有者）满意的收购目标，这些大公司在有潜在的协同效应的情况下，愿意支付战略溢价，而协同效应在现有的装机容
量和/或更便宜的原料渠道下，是可行的。
We notethat our assessed valuerangeis subject to anumber of upside anddownsiderisksasfollows:
我们注意到：我们的评估值范围受一些上行和下行风险的影响，比如:
Valuationsummary 评估小结
Upside risks 上行风险 Downside risks 下行风险
◆ International opportunitycouldbe muchgreaterthan included ◆ International opportunityand xylitol markets are untested
inour assessment 国家上的机会要比我们的评估中的多的多。 with limiteddiligence todate 到目前为止，国际机会和木糖
◆ Assumptions adoptedforvaluationpurposein thebase case 醇市场尚未经过严格检验
includeanelementof conservatism 在 base case 中用于评估的假设 ◆ Impactof regulation (mayinclude import dutiesin
包含了保守因素 internationalmarkets)监管的影响(可能包括国际市场的进口
关税)
◆ Strategic purchaser maybe willingtopaya significantpremium
toaccessthetechnologyis seentobe ◆ Competitive responsefrom existing2Gtechnologies
superiortootheroptionsavailable 战略性购买者可能愿意支付相当 ornewentrants 现有 2 代技术或新进入市者的竞争响应
高的溢价，以获得这项我们认为优于其他的技术 ◆ Substantial uncertaintyinrespectof accessing required
◆ Diesohol opportunityhas not been quantified 柴油所带来的机遇还没 fundingtobuild assumedlevelof plants 在获取所需资金从而
有被量化 建设设定水平的工厂方面存在重大不确定性
◆ Unproven marketingand distribution capability 未经证实的营销能
力和销售能力
1.5 Leadenhallcontacts 与伦敦肉类市场的联系
[Signature 签字] [Signature 签字]
DavePearson Richard Norris
Director Director
Dave.Pearson@leadenhall.com.au Richard.Norris@leadenhall.com.au
+61291991103 +61288236224
Unless otherwise stated, all financialdatais in Australiandollars in$'000and subject torounding.
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Valuation ofEthtec Ethtec 资产评估
除另有约定外，一切财务数据都是以澳大利元$'000 计，并四舍五入取整。
This report hasbeen preparedon thebasisof afinancial year endof 30 June("FY")
本报告中所涉财务年截止 6 月 30 日 (“财年”)
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2. Introduction 介绍
2.1 Purpose 愿景
Ethtec hasrequested Leadenhalltoprepare avaluation of a100% controllinginterestof Ethtecas at a current date. We
understand thisvaluationis requiredfor capital raisingpurposes. Itshouldnot be usedfor anyotherpurposeunless
Leadenhall hasprovided written consent. Weare not responsibleto Ethtec, oranyother third party, whetherfor our
negligence or otherwise, ifthereport is usedbyanyother partyorfor anyother purpose.
Ethtec 已要求 Leadenhall 准备 Ethtec100%控股利益的资产评估(截至当前日期)。我们理解：为筹集资金，这种资产评估
是必需的。除非 Leadenhall 提供书面同意，否则该评估不得用于其他用途。若本报告被任何其他方或以任何其它目的使用，
无论是否因我方疏忽或其他原因，我方对 Ethtec 或任何其他第三方不负任何责任。
2.2 Scope 范围
In accordancewithprofessional standard APES 225Valuation Services, thisreport has beenpreparedasa limited scope
valuation engagement, whichis anengagement orassignment toperform avaluationand provideavaluationreportwhere the
scopeofworkislimited or restricted. We considerthistobe alimited scopevaluation engagement because
thevaluationispremised aroundanumber ofsimplifyingassumptionsand/or limitationswhichare commonfor aproject
/technologyat this stageofdevelopment. These includethe following:
依照专业标准 APES 225 资产评估服务，本资产评估是按照一个有限资产评估约定编制的，而有限资产评估约定是一个执行资
产评估并提供评估报告（其中工作范围是有限的或受限的）的约定或任务。我们认为这是一个有限范围的估值义务，因为评
估的前提是围绕一系列的简化假设和/或限制，而这在当前开发阶段的项目/技术中是常见的。
◆ We havenotsought, nor are wequalified to, independentlyassess thelegal protectionandtechnical meritsof the
technologyor available substitutes. Nothing has come to our attention based on our analysis of the independent
assessments of the technology undertaken as part of the ARENA funding application which would cause us to doubt
the proposed technical merits of the project 我们没有寻求，也没有资格，独立评估该技术或其它可用的替代技术的合
法保护和技术优势。作为阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请的一部分，我们对该技术的独立评估进行了分析，没有什么能引
起我们的注意，而该融资申请让我们对该项目的技术优点产生怀疑。
◆ We havenotassessedthe technicalissues to successful completion of the development of Ethtec'stechnology 我们还
未评估能成功完成 Ethtec 技术开发的技术问题
◆ We haveassumed that theapplication for ARENA funding is successful 我们假定阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请成功
◆ There areanumberof potentialavenues to commercialisethe technology. We havenot soughtto modelallpotential
structures but insteadforthepurposeofour analysishave analysedarelativelysimplisticroyalty/ licensing model 该技术商
业化地途径很多。我们并没有试图对所有潜在的结构进行建模，但却为了验证，我们分析了一个相对简单的版税/许可
模型。
◆ We haveonlyundertakena high-levelanalysisof the cash flowassumptionsandwehighlightthat small changesina
numberof assumptions canhavea significant impacton the calculatedoutcome 我们只对现金流假设进行了高级分析，
并强调一些假设中的小变化会对计算结果产生重大影响。
As aresult of these limitationsour opinionhasbeen expressedasawider range thanit wouldhave beenif additional
procedures hadbeen undertaken. Wehave agreedwithEthtec to make theserestrictionsin order tolimitthe costof the
valuation exercise. Itispossiblethatif additionalanalysis wasundertaken our conclusion could change materially.由于这些
限制，我们的意见已被表示为更广泛的范围
Scope ofvaluation analysis
估值分析的范围
Levelofanalysis 分析等级
Procedure 步骤
None 无 Limited 有限的 Extensive 大量的
Undertaken interviewswith management to understandthe business /
为了了解业务，与管理层进行了面谈
Independentassessmentof relevanteconomies 对相关经济进行了独立评估 /
Analysed public informationrelating tothe industry, customers and competitors /
分析了与行业、客户和竞争对手相关的公共信息
Prepared adetailedindustryanalysis 准备了详细的行业分析 /
Assessed the company's servicesand market position 评估公司的服务和市场地位 /
Assessed the strengthofthe company's intellectualproperty 评估公司知识产权的实力 /
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Assessed thetechnical challengesin developing commercial-scaletechnology /
评估了发展商业规模技术的技术挑战
Considered thepastandprojected operatingresults 考虑过去以及所预测的营业成绩 /
Analysed current financial position 分析了当前的财务状况 /
Discussed andunderstoodassumptionson whichforecasts maybebased /
讨论并理解作为预测基础的假设
Independentlyassessed forecastassumptions 独立评估了预测设想 /
Tested arithmetic compilationofforecastbasedon statedassumptions /
验证了基于上述设想预测的算法
Considered longer term growthprospects 考虑了长期增长的前景 /
Selected anappropriate valuation methodology 选择了合适的估值方法 /
Determined inputsandassumptions toprovidea valuation conclusion /
Undertaken avaluation cross-checkusing alternative method(s) /
使用替代方法进行估值交叉核对
Confirmed the companyhasproper title tothe subjectbusinessandassets /
Verified dataand ratiosobtained frominformation providers /
验证信息提供者提供的数据和比率
Discussed aninitial draft reportto confirm factualaccuracy /
对一份初步报告草案进行讨论，以确认事实的准确性
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
We haverelied uponand/or considered thefollowinginformation providedby Ethtec:我方是基于或考虑了 Ethtec 提供的下述
信息：
◆ Ethtec business case andapplicationto ARENA for funding
Ethtec 用于阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资的商业案例和应用
◆ Feasibilitymodellingofethanol-onlyand ethanol/ xylitolrefineries adoptingthe EthtecProcess
纯乙醇和乙醇/木糖醇提炼厂（使用了 Ethtec 工艺）的可行性模型
◆ Netpresent value analysisof Ethtecbased onforecasts of future ethanolproduction usingthe EthtecProcess
Ethtec 的净现值分析，基于使用了 Ethtec 工艺的未来乙醇生产预测
◆ Ethtec historicalaudited financial statementsforthefinancial yearsended30 June2014,2015and2016
Ethtec2014 年，2015 年，2016 年（截止每年 6 月 30 日）的三年审计财务报告
◆ Ethtec information memorandum
Ethtec 信息备忘录
2.3 Definition ofvalue 价值定义
Marketvalueis definedas:市值定义如下：
"theprice, expressed intermsofcashequivalents,at which propertywould changehandsbetween ahypothetical willing
andablebuyer and ahypotheticalwilling andable seller, actingat armslength inanopenandunrestricted market,
whenneither isundercompulsiontobuyor sell andwhenbothhavereasonable knowledgeof the relevantfacts."
“用现金等价物表示的价格，若存在购买意向和有能力的买家，以及酷游售卖意向的买家，当双方都不是强制购买或
售卖且都对相关事实有合理了解之时，那么资产会在一个开放而不受限制的市场上在上述两者间以这样的价格易
手。”
Source:InternationalGlossaryof Business ValuationTerms
料来源:国际商业估价术语表
Special valueisdefinedas theamount a specific purchaser iswillingtopayinexcessof marketvalue. Such specific purchasers
maybewillingto payapremiumoverfair market valueas aresult of potential economiesof scale, reduction in competitionor
othersynergiestheymayenjoyarisingfromthe acquisitionof the asset. Special valuehasnot been considered inthisanalysis.
特殊价值被定义为特定购买者愿意支付超过市场价值的金额。由于潜在的规模经济、竞争减少或由于资产兼并而产生的其
他协同效应，这些特定的购买者可能愿意支付高于公平市价的溢价。在此分析中没有考虑到特别价值。
2.4 Leveland premise ofvalue 价值的水平和前提
There areanumber of levels at whichabusinessvalue canbedetermined, dependingon thelevelof controlandthe level of
marketability. The different levelsof value arediscussedindetail in Appendix3. Aswe areassessing thevalue of100%of the
sharesof Ethtec, thelevel of valueadopted isa control value. To theextent a minorityparcelofsharesis acquired,it maybe
appropriateto applyadiscount tothepro-rata valuetoreflectthereducedlevel of controland / or liquidityapplicabletoa
minoritypositionin aprivate company.
业务价值的确定有很多水平，这取决于管理水平和市场化的程度。附录 3 详细讨论了不同水平的价值。当我们在评估
Ethtec 的全部股份价值时，所采用的价值水平是一个对对照值。在少数股份被收购的情况下，可适当地对按比例价值进行
打折，以反映在私人公司中控制和/或流动性降低的少数股权。
The premiseof value referstoanassessmentof whether thevaluation of abusiness should bepremisedonthe assumption of
agoing concernasopposedto aliquidationor break upassumption. In this casewehave determinedthata going concernbasis
isthe mostappropriatefor Ethtec andthereforeadopted thegoing concern premiseof value.
价值前提指的是一个评估，评估企业的估值是否应以持续经营的假设为前提，而非相反的清算或破产假设为前提。在这种情
况下，我们已确定持续经营的前提对 Ethtec 最为合适，因此采用了持续经营的价值前提。
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3. Background to theBusiness 业务背景
3.1 Overview 概况
Ethtec isanunlisted Australianpublic companyheadquarteredat Inghamin NorthQueensland. There are309
shareholders comprised mostlyof sugarcanefarmersandlandowners.
Ethtec 是一家未上市的澳大利亚股份公司，总部位于昆士兰州北部的英格汉姆，有 309 名主要由甘蔗农和土地
所有者组成的股东。
Ethtec wasestablishedin2004 tofurther develop and commercialisenewtechnologydeveloped by ApaceResearch Limited
("Apace") for the productionof sugars,ligninandethanolfrom lignocellulosic materialsas wellasnewtechnology developed by
Apacefor the productionof ethanol-dieselfuelblends andtheir usein dieselengines(the"ApaceDiesohol Technology").
Ethtec 创立于年，致力于进一步开发并商业化由 Apace 研究有限公司(“Apace”)开发的、用于从木质纤维素材料中生产糖、木
质素和乙醇的新技术，以及该公司研发的、用于生产乙醇柴油混合燃料及将其用用户柴油发动机的新技术（Apace 柴油乙醇
混合燃料技术）。
3.2 Ethtec process and productsEthtec 工艺和产品
Ethanol 乙醇
Ethanol isan establishedrenewabletransportfuelthat is usedin theformofethanol-petrolblends containing upto10% ethanol in
conventionalpetrol engines, upto 27% ethanolin adaptedpetrolengines andupto 85%ethanolinflexible-fuel engines. Neat
ethanolis usedasfuelin ethanolenginesandin some modernflexible-fuelengines.
乙醇是一种成熟的可再生运输用燃料，而运输用燃料通常是乙醇柴油混合液；对于传统汽油发动机，该混合液中的乙醇含量
不超过 10%，对于改装汽油发动机，燃料中的乙醇含量不超过 27%，在两用燃料引擎中，乙醇含量不超过 85%。
在乙醇发动机和一些现代的两用燃料发动机中，使用纯乙醇作为燃料。
Ethanol producedfromfood cropproducts suchas sugar cane juice,corn starchandwheatstarchisreferred
toasfirstgeneration ethanol. However,thesefeedstocks are also usedfortheproduction of foodproducts andthe
competitionitcreates with thefood market acts asa constraint on ethanolproduction fromthese feedstocks.
产自于甘蔗汁，玉米淀粉和小麦淀粉等粮食作物产品的乙醇，被称为一代乙醇。然而，这些原料也用于食品生产，因此
这种乙醇生产方法与食品市场存在竞争，这样的竞争反过来限制了一代乙醇的生产。
Ethanol producedfromlignocellulosic or fibrous materials suchasagricultural crop residues, forestwastes and municipal
green wasteisreferred toas second generationor cellulosicethanol.
产自于农业作物残渣、森林废物和城市绿色废物等木质纤维素的乙醇，被称为二代乙醇。
The majorityof cellulosicethanol productionprocessesrevolvearound developing methodsof steam and/ or acidpre-
treatmentof the lignocellulosicfeedstock followedbytheuse of enzymes torelease the structural sugarsinto solution
(known asenzymatic hydrolysis), therebymaking thembioavailablefora micro-organism toferment to ethanol. Major
limitations ofthisapproach are:
大部分木制纤维素生产的乙醇身生产过程，围绕木质纤维素原料的蒸汽和/或酸预处理方法，然后使用酶将结构糖释放到
溶液中（称为酶水解），从而使它们有生物可用性，以便微生物发酵，产生乙醇。这种方法的主要制约是:
◆ The required steamand / or acid pre-treatment processis expensiveintermsofboth capitaland operational costs
从资金和运营成本方面考虑，所需的蒸汽和/或酸性预处理过程都很昂贵
◆ Enzymes arefeedstockspecific and cannot be usedon multipleormixedfeedstocks
酶只对原料有效，不能用于多种或混合饲料
◆ Enzymes are slowacting,requiringdaysto completereleaseof the structural sugars, resulting inlarge sizedholding
vessels,alarge plant footprintandhigh capital cost
酶反应较慢，需要好几天才能完全释放结构糖，这会导致需要大型船舶，大型工厂（占地面积大）以及高成本。
◆ Incomplete pre-treatment and / or lowenzymeefficiencyresults inlowyields of sugars, which inturnresults inlow
ethanol yields
不完全的预处理和/或低下的酶分解效率会导致底下的糖产量，从而影响乙醇产量
◆ Enzymes areexpensiveandare consumed ineachbatch, resultingin highoperational costs
酶价格昂贵，并且每一批都被消耗掉，这导致经营成本较高。
The EthtecProcessaims toovercomethe above-mentionedlimitationsbyusing concentrated sulphuric acidtorelease the
feedstock structural sugars(known asacidhydrolysis) in highyieldsina rapid continuousprocess. A continuous
chromatographysystemthen separates the sugarsfrom theacid, allowing theacidto berecycledand the sugarstobe
fermentedto ethanol.
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Ethtec 工艺旨在通过使用浓硫酸在快速连续的过程中释放高产量的原料结构糖(即酸水解)，从而克服上述限制。然后使用
一种连续的色谱系统，将糖和酸分离，使酸被回收，糖被发酵成乙醇。
The useofacidhydrolysisallows for awide varietyof feedstock tobeutilised asinputs, including mixedfeedstockinputs,as
theprocessdoes not dependon feedstock-specificenzymes. The EthtecProcessalso negatestheneed for pre-
treatmentofthe feedstock.
酸水解法允许多种原料作为投入使用，包括混合原料投入，因为这个过程不依赖于特定于原料的酶。Ethtec 的过程也否定
了对原料预处理的需要。
Based ondiscussionwith Ethtec, weunderstandthere arenoexisting commercial scaleplantsusinga similar process.
在与 Ethtec 讨论后，我们了解到目前位置还未有任何商业规模的工厂使用类似工艺。
Currently, Australiahasan ethanol mandatein placeinNewSouth Walesandin Queensland. Ethtecbelievesthis mandate
islikelyto beextendednationwide infuturedue totheincreasing globalfocuson ethanolasa clean, alternative fuel
(cellulosicethanolinparticular) and asethanolproductionprocessesbecome moreeconomical. This canbe observed fromthe
implementationofsimilar policiesin countries such astheUnited States, Brazil andthroughoutEurope.TheUnited
StatesEnvironmentalProtection AgencyhasrecentlyapprovedE15(15% ethanol, 85%unleaded petrol)for use
invehiclesbuiltafter 2001. In Brazil, flex-fuelvehicles (vehiclesthat can runonfuel blendswithvarying proportions of
ethanoland petrol) are common andE27is the minimum mandated ethanol-petrolblend.
目前，澳大利亚在新南威尔士州和昆士兰都有现行的乙醇强制执行授权。Ethtec 认为：由于乙醇作为一种清洁的替代燃料
(特别是木质纤维素乙醇)受到越来越多的全球关注，并且乙醇生产过程变得更加经济，因此这项授权在未来很可能在全国范
围内推广。这点可从美国、巴西和整个欧洲等国家对类似政策的执行中看出。美国环境保护署最近批准了燃料 E15(15%乙
醇，85%无铅汽油)，用于 2001 年后建造的车辆中。在巴西，混合燃料汽车(可使用不同乙醇-汽油比例的混合燃料的汽车)
很常见，E27 是强制要求最低的乙醇-汽油混合燃料。
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Xylitol 木糖醇
Xylitol isan alternativenatural sweetener found in small quantitiesin most fruits andvegetables.It has
theequivalentsweetness of sucrosewithapproximatelyonethird of the kilojoulesand canbe consumedbydiabetics as it is
metabolised viaan insulin-independent pathway
木糖醇是一种可替代的天然甜味剂，在大多数水果和蔬菜中发现含有少量木糖醇。木糖醇的甜度相当于大约三分之一千焦
的蔗糖，而且由于木糖醇是只通过胰岛素来代谢的，因此可被糖尿病人消耗掉。
The global market forxylitolwasestimated at 191,000tonnes in2016and isexpectedto increaseto 267,000 tonnesby 2022
drivenbyincreasinglyhealthand weight conscious consumers. Thelarge majorityof xylitolisproducedinChina and
isusedinvarious sectors suchas sugar-free chewinggum, toothpaste,pharmaceuticalsandpremiumnon-sugar
confectionaryproducts.
2016 年，木糖醇的全球市场产量为 19.1 万吨，并且随着越来越多的消费者对于健康和体重关注，预计到 2022 年产量将
增加到 267000 吨。绝大多数木糖醇产自中国，用于无糖口香糖、牙膏、药物及高档不含糖糖果等产品。
Xylitol is currentlyproducedexclusivelyfromeither corn cobs or thebarkfrom birchwoodtrees, both of whicharerichin xylose.
After extracting thexylose,it ishydrogenated toform xylitolusing anexpensivenickel catalyst, resulting inahigh-
costproduction process.
木糖醇目前仅由玉米芯或桦木树树皮生产，因为它们都富含木糖。在提取木糖后，用一种昂贵的镍催化剂加氢形成木糖醇，
这导致了高成本的生产工艺。
Amoreeconomicalwayknowntoproduce xylitolfromxylose isthroughfermentation. However, the majorbarrier tothis
approach hashistoricallybeen a sustainable supplyof axylose-rich sugarstream. Basedon Ethtec'sdata, the sugar stream
producedfrom sugar cane bagasseisrichinxylitol whichhasthepotential toprovidethenecessaryhigh-volume
sugarstreamforcommercial-scaleproduction of xylitol.Furthermore, preliminarywork by Ethtec has shown that the
yeast,Candidatropicalis,can ferment theglucose and mannose componentsof theEthtec hydrolysateto ethanoland
fermentthexylose component toxylitol.Thisprovidesa meansof co-production of ethanol andxylitol, and apossible
earlypathwayto commercialisationfor Ethtec.
发酵是从木糖中生产木糖醇的一种更经济的方法。然而，这种方法的一直以来都存在主要障碍，业绩素食受限于富含木糖
的糖浆的可持续供应。Ethtec 的数据表明，甘蔗蔗渣生产的糖浆富含木糖醇，可能为木糖醇的商业化规模生产提供必须的
大量的糖流。此外，Ethtec 的研究还表明：酵母和念珠菌可以将 Ethtec 水解液中的葡萄糖和甘醇成份酵化成乙醇，并将木
糖成分酵化成木糖醇。这为乙醇和木糖醇的联合生产提供了一种手段，并为 Ethtec 的商业化提供了一个可能的早期途径。
Diesohol 柴油乙醇混合燃料
Apace isalsointhe processof developinga newtechnologyfor the productionof ethanol-dieselfuel blendsandtheir use in
dieselengines (“Diesohol”) which could alsorepresenta significant commercialisation opportunityfor Ethtec.
Ifsuccessful,thistechnologywouldallowethanoltobeblended withdieselfuelup to15%byvolume andbeused
interchangeablywithdieselfuelin existingdieselengines. Diesohol containingupto30% byvolume of ethanol couldbe used
with minorengine modifications. Once commercialised, thistechnologywouldallowthese industriestodisplace
significantvolumesofdieselfuel usedin their operations. Somelimited trials/testinghave beenundertaken todatewith large
industrialusers. Whilstthework undertakentodate ispromising,significant additional research, testingand
developmentwillberequired beforethe commercial merits canbeverified.
Apace 还在开发一种用于生产乙醇柴油混合燃料(“乙醇柴油混合燃料”)及其在柴油发动机中使用的新技术，该技术也可为
Ethtec 的商业化带来重大机遇。若研发成功，乙醇与柴油按体积混合最高可达 15%，而且在现有柴油发动机中可与柴油互
换使用。乙醇含有高达 30%的乙醇柴油混合燃料，可用于小型改良发动机。该技术一旦商业化，这些行业就会将其在运营
中使用的大量柴油燃料替换成乙醇柴油混合燃料。目前针对大型工业用户已进行了一些有限的试验/测试。虽然迄今为止，
所进行的工作都是前途光明的，但在验证商业价值之前，还需要进行大量的额外研究、测试和开发。
3.3 DevelopmentStatus 开发现状
The development oftheEthtecProcess isdividedinto four distinct phases witheach phase containingatleast one
componentof keynewtechnology. The first twophases involveddeveloping processestoliberate sugarsfromfeedstocks
through acidhydrolysis,separatingtheacid fromthe sugarandrecyclingthe acidbyre-concentrating it andreturning it to the
front end of theprocess.Thesephaseshave been completed successfullyandrepresent areas of development with higher
technical risks relative to the following two phases due to dependence on the development of novel / new processes.
Ethtec 工艺开发分为四个不同阶段，每个阶段包含至少一个关键新技术的一个组成部分。前两个阶段包括：通过酸解将糖从
原料中分离，将酸与糖分离，再将酸重新浓缩并再次适用到上工序末的开发工艺。这几个阶段已经成功实施，也揭示了与后
续阶段有关的、具有高技术风险的开发之处，因为后面的阶段依赖于新的/新工艺的发展。
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The researchinphases 3and4 relatetothe fermentingof sugars (releasedfromfeedstocksin theearlier parts of the
process)intoethanoland combining theethanolrecoveryprocesses withwasterecovery. Based ondiscussionwithDr Russell
Reeves, technicalrisksinthesephasesare deemedtobelower as successinthese phasesisgenerallybased on the
efficiencyoftheprocess relative toexisting sugar-to-ethanolfermentation and ethanolrecovery/ waste
treatmentprocesses.Inaddition,fermentationofsugarsto alcoholisa well-understoodand commerciallytested process
supported bya significantbodyofresearch. Should Ethtec'sresearchin thesephases produceless than satisfactoryresults,
Ethtec would stillbe abletoutilise existingtechnologies / processesto achieve similar results,albeit with higher costs.
阶段 3 和阶段 4 涉及糖（从前工序的原料中释放出来）转化成乙醇的酵化，并结合了乙醇的回收工艺。根据与 Russell
Reeves 博士的探讨，认为这两个阶段的技术风险较低，因为这两个阶段的成功往往是基于现有糖-乙醇酵化工艺以及乙醇
回收/废物处理工艺的效率。此外，糖-乙醇酵化是一个易于理解并进行商业测试的工艺，该工艺由一个重要的研究机构作为
支撑。若 Ethtec 在这两个阶段的研究成果不尽如人意，Ethtec 仍然可以利用现有的技术/工艺实现类似结果，但这样做成本
会更高。
In addition, theprocessesdeveloped inPhases1and 2arealsovaluable to sectorsother than ethanolasthehigh- volume sugar
streamthatcanbeproduced usingtheseprocesseshas thepotentialto beutilisedin manyother industries such asbioplastics(a
formof plasticwhich isderivedfrombiological substancesinsteadof petroleum andis biodegradable).
此外,阶段 1 和 2 中的开发工艺，也对非乙醇的步骤具有重要价值，因为使用这些工艺生产的高容量糖流也很有可能在许多
其他行业中使用，如生物塑料（一种来自生物物质、具有生物降解性的塑料，用来代替石油)。
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Valuation ofEthtec Ethtec 资产评估
3.4 Business model 商业模式
The Ethtec commercialisation strategy, both withinAustralia andinternationally,isnotyet agreed but mayincludeeither a
licensing modeloractivelypursuingthe formationofconsortiathat comprise resourceowners,capitalinvestors, process
equipment/technologysuppliers and product offtake organisations.
Ethtec 在澳大利以及国际商的商业化进程目前还未议定，但可能包含一种许可模式，或积极寻求包括资源所有者、资本投资者、
过程设备/技术供应商和产品分支机构在内的合作。
Ethtec's roleinthese ventureswillbe toprovidethe EthtecProcessincluding thetechnicalexpertise andongoing research and
development to ensurethe technologycontinuesto beattheforefrontofitsfield.It is anticipatedthatprofits from these consortia
willbeextracted by Ethtecthrough either alicensing approachor throughjointequityownership (enabling equitydistributions
toEthtec)in theentities.
Ethtec 在这些项目中的作用将是提供 Ethtec 工艺，包括专业知识和正在进行的研发，以确保这些技术一直保持行业领先水
平。预期 Ethtec 将会通过颁发许可，或在这些实体中进行联合股权分配的方式来分配因上述合作方加入而获取的利润 (使
实体能给 Ethtec 股权分配)。
The commercialisationoftheEthtec Processwould generatepotentiallysignificantbenefitsforresourceowners bywayofvalue-
adding biomassresources usedinthe process.As such, Ethtecexpects significant support and uptakeof the
EthtecProcessbycompanies/ individuals involvedin theforest, sugarcaneandotheragriculturalindustries,bothwithin Australia
and internationally.
Ethtec 工艺的商业化将会给资源所有者带来潜在的重大利益，因为商业化过程中所使用的生物质资源是增值的。因此，在
澳大利亚国内以及国际上，Ethtec 希望能得到与森林、甘蔗和其它农业产业相关的公司/个人的、对于 Ethtec 工艺的支持和
理解，并参与到这些行业中去。
In addition, the EthtecProcess involvesnewand /ornovelapplicationsforparticular types of
processequipment.Accordingly,suppliersofthisequipmentarealso stakeholdersthatwillpotentiallyderive
significantbenefitsfrom commercialisation of the EthtecProcess bywayofanew,large-scale, applicationfortheir products and
services.
此外，Ethtec 工艺还会使用到新的/新颖的特殊工艺设备。因此，此类设备的供应商也是利益相关者，因为他们可通过部署
新的、大规模的、产品和服务从 Ethtec 工艺商业化中获得明显收益。
Organisations involvedinthe downstreamvalue-adding, trading,wholesaleand/or retail supplyof (lignocellulosic)
sugars,ethanoland / or otherproductsproducedfrom (lignocellulosic) sugarsare also stakeholdersthatwillpotentially derive
significantbenefits from commercialisation oftheEthtec Process.
参与下游增值、交易、批发和/或糖、乙醇和/或其它糖类产品(木质纤维素)零售供应(木质纤维素)的组织，也可能从 Ethtec
工艺的商业化过程中获得巨大的利益。
3.5 Apace relationship 与 Apace 的关系
Apace wasincorporatedin NewSouthWales in1979 asa non-profit company, limited byguarantee, toundertake research
anddevelopment ofrenewableenergytechnologies. There areno shareholdersin Apace. Currently, thereare five membersof
Apacewhoalso serveas directorsof Apace. TheyincludeDr RussellReeves andMr AndrewReeves who arealso
keypersonnelof Ethtec.TheMemorandumand Articlesof Associationof Apacerestrict Apace from making anydistributions
toits members.
Apace 于 1979 年在新南威尔士州成立，作为一家以担保为限的非营利性有限公司，负责研发可再生能源技术。Apace 没
有任何股东，并且 Apace 有 5 名成员，其中包括 Ethtec 的关键人物：拉塞尔里夫斯博士和安德鲁里维斯先生，这 5 名成
员同时也担任 Apace 的董事。Apace 的备忘录和章程限制了 Apace 对其成员的任何分配。
Apace either owns or hasexclusive intellectualpropertyrights tothetechnologyusedbyEthtec. Ethtechas aworld-wide
exclusive licencefromApace tofurther develop and commercialisethe Apacetechnology(including theEthtecProcess).As part
of this licensingarrangement, Ethtecis requiredtopaya5%royaltyon salesto Apace onceEthtecbreachesa cumulative
salesthreshold of 1.5 timesthe investedequitycapitalin Ethtec. In addition, once cumulative sales surpasses
7.5 timesthe equitycapital of Ethtec,theroyaltyrateis increasedto 10%on salesabove that threshold.
Apace 要么拥有 Ethtec 所使用的技术，要么具有该技术的独享知识产权。Ethtec 获取了 Apace 的一个世界范围的独家授权，
进一步开发 Apace 技术(包括 Ethtec 工艺)进行商业化。作为这一许可协议的一部分，一旦 Ethtec 的累计销售门槛超过 1.5
倍，Ethtec 需要支付 5%的版税。此外，一旦累计销售额超过了 7.5 倍的 Ethtec 股权资本，对于高于该阈值的销售额，版
税税率提高到 10%。
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Valuation ofEthtec Ethtec 资产评估
3.6 Capitalstructure and funding 资本结构及融资
To date, Ethtec shareholdershave contributeda totalof$15.6 million tothe project ($5 millionunderanOffer Information
Statementin2007,$6 millionunderaRightsIssue Prospectusin2010,and$4.6 million under anInformation Memorandum
in2012). Theseall occurredat anominal priceof [$1per share].
到目前为止，Ethtec 的股东已经为该项目出资了 1，560 万美元(在 2007 年的一份《发行信息披露》的声明中，有 500 万
美元；2010 年的《招股说明书》中 600 万美元的权利发行计划书；2012 年的《资料备忘录》中有 460 万美元)。这些股票
都是以名义价格计算(每股 1 美元)上。
In addition, Ethtec haspreviouslyreceivedtwo government grants;$57,000awarded bythe NSWDepartment of State and
RegionalDevelopment’sBusinessInvestment Programmein2008and $2.935 millionawardedbyAusIndustryunder the
FederalGovernment’sClimate Ready Programmein2010.
此外，Ethtec 曾获得过两笔政府资助，分别是由新南威尔士州国家和区域发展部于 2008 年颁发的 57,000 美元的商业投资
项目，以及在 2010 年联邦政府气候准备方案下由 AusIndustry 拨划的 2.935 亿美元。
In order to continuewith thedevelopmentand commercialisation of the EthtecProcess, Ethtecis currentlypursuing
additional fundingwith anapplication to ARENAaswell as contemplating further capital raisingsfrompotentialinvestors.
为了继续开发 Ethtec 工艺并进行商业化，Ethtec 目前向阿瑞娜（ARENA）提出申请，寻求更多的资金，并考虑进一步向
潜在的投资者筹集资本。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
4. Valuation Methodology 资产评估方法
4.1 Available methodologies 可用方法
There areanumber of approachesthat can beusedtovalueabusiness. Theseapproachesarediscussedindetailin Appendix4.
The selectionof anappropriate methoddependson anumber of factors suchasthe natureof thebusiness being valued,
thereturn ontheassets employedinthe business, thevaluation methodologiesusuallyapplied inthe sectorand
theavailabilityof the requiredinformation.
评估业务的方法多种多样，将在附录 4 中详细讨论。选择适当的方法取决于多个因素，例如被评估业务的性质、业务使用
资产的回报率、该领域中的常规估评估方法，以及所需信息的可用性等。
4.2 Selected methodologies 选择的方法
In selectingthe most appropriate methodologyto valueEthtec wehave considered:
在选择最合适的方法评估 Ethtec 时，我们考虑了以下几点：
◆ Ethtec isneither anassetbasedbusinessnor an investment holding company. It isalso considered tobeagoing
concern,thusanassetapproachisnotlikelytobe the most appropriate
Ethtec 既不是基于资产的商业，也不是一家投资控股公司。它也被认为是一个盈利企业，因此资产评估方法也不太
可能是最合适的。
◆ Ethtec ispre-revenueandthereforeuse of the capitalisation of earningsapproach isnot possible
Ethtec 是先期获益的，因此使用资本收益方法也是不可能的。
◆ We havebeenprovidedwith modelsinvolving projectionsof future salesvolumesand forecast revenuesand
expenditure requiredto commercialise theEthtecProcess. These projections, whichwereprepared by Ethtec
managementandtheir advisers, mayformareasonablebasisforaDCF analysis
我们已经获得了与未来销量预测有关的模型，并对 Ethtec 工艺商业化所需的收入和产出进行了预估。上述销量
预测是由 Ethtec 管理层及其顾问编写的，可以为 DCF 分析提供一个合理的基础。
◆ We arenotawareofanyindustryspecific valuation methodologies appropriatetoEthtec givenits
stageofdevelopment
我们并不知道对于 Ethtec 的开发阶段，存在那些特定的行业评估方法。
Accordingly,weare of theopinion that the most appropriate methodologytovalue Ethtecisthe DCF method witha
probabilityweightedassessmentof multiple likelyscenarios.
因此，我们认为最适合价值的方法是 DCF 方法，它可以对各种可能的方案进行概率加权评估。
4.3 Valuation process 评估过程
As the commercialisation modelis currentlyuncertain, inapplying theDCF method,wehave:
由于商业化的模式目前还不确定，所以在使用 DCF 方法时，我们:
◆ Determined theeconomics of operatingan ethanolplant utilising theEthtecProcess basedonassumptions usedinthe
ARENAfundingapplicationupside case (page13)基于阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请中的上升情况中的设想，确定经营一个
采用 Ethtec 工艺生产乙醇的工厂的经济效益(第 13 页)
◆ Considered thepotential returnsto Ethtecin theformofanappropriate royaltyrate (page17)考虑到 Ethtec 可能因合适的
版税率收到的回报（第 13 页）
◆ Assessed anappropriatediscount rate (page22)评估了适当的贴现率（第 22 页）
◆ Calculated theenterprisevalue for thebase case (page24)计算了基本情况下的企业价值（第 22 页）
◆ Considered potentialalternative scenarios, their respective probabilitiesandthe overallbusinessvalue (pages26to
29)考虑了各种潜在替代方案，及其各自的概率和整体业务价值(第 26 至 29 页)
◆ Assessed thevalueof an Ethtec share(page31)评估了 Ethtec 的每股价值(第 31 页)
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
5. EthanolPlantAssumptions 乙醇工厂的设想
5.1 Introduction
In order to developa set of cash flowprojections for Ethtec, we havefirstassessedtheforecasteconomicsofanethanol
plantemployingthe EthtecProcess todeterminea reasonablereturn (inthe formof a royaltyorother profit distribution
arrangement)toestimate Ethtec'srevenue stream. From discussionswith management, ourlimitedindustryanalysisand
reviewof existingplantmodelling/ projections providedbymanagement, we havedeveloped cash flowprojections based
ontheassumptions set out below. Theseassumptionsare premisedontheassumptions utilisedinthe ARENA funding
applicationandotherinformationprovidedbymanagement. We haveprimarilyrelied ontheinformation provided,including
estimatesofethanolyield fromfeedstocks,andoperational and capital expenditurerequirements.We
haveonlyundertakenlimited analysisof keyindustry variables suchasethanol pricingandthefuelexcise.
为了开发一套针对 Ethtec 的现金流预测，我们首先评估了一个应用 Ethtec 工艺的乙醇工厂的预期经济，来确定合理的回报
(以特许权使用费或其他利润分配的形式)来估计 Ethtec 的收入来源。基于与管理层的讨论、我们有限的行业分析以及对管
理层提供的现有工厂建模/预测的回顾，我们根据下面的设想制定了现金流预测。这些设想的前提是：在阿瑞娜（ARENA）
资金申请以及管理层提供的其他信息中采用的设想。我们主要依赖于所提供的信息，包括对饲料产乙醇的产量的估计，以
及运营和资本支出的要求。我们仅对主要工业变量进行了有限分析，例如乙醇的定价和燃料税。
Referto Appendix5fordetailedforecasts basedon theseassumptions.
欲知这些设想进行详细的预测，请参见附录 5。
5.2 Plantcapacityusage and production volume 工厂产能利用率和产量
Capacityusageof an ethanolproduction plant from commencementof operationsis assumedtoincrease asfollows
based on current Ethtec modelling:
根据目前的 Ethtec 模型，估计乙醇生产工厂在商业化操作下的产能利用率将会有如下增加：
◆ Year1:50%oftotalplant capacity
第一年：工厂生产总能力的 50%。
◆ Year2onwards:100%oftotalplant capacity
第二年及以后：工厂生产总能力的 100%
This ramp-upprofile assumes sufficient ongoing demandfor ethanol after Year 2 to continueproducing at 100% capacity
which isnotunreasonablegiventhe growingdemand for alternativefuels (topetrol),theprovenviabilityof ethanolfor use
inpetrolblends andtheblending of ethanolbeing increasinglygovernment-mandated, both in Australiaandglobally.
这个上升的利润是基于以下假设：假设在第 2 年之后存在足够的、不间断的乙醇需求，以使工厂继续全产能生产（但这是
不合理的，因未要考虑替代燃料的需求不断增长）；并且乙醇在汽油中使用的可行性已证实，同时在澳大利亚和全球范围
内乙醇混合技术受到越来越多的政府授权。
Forthepurposeof our analysis,wehaveassumedanethanol plant capacityof 60 million litres("ML") per annumwhich is
theaverage ethanolnameplateplantcapacitysupportablebased ontheoutputof sugar cane bagassein
Australia.Sugarcanebagasseis likelytobe oneof the main feedstocksfor Ethtec Processethanolplants in Australiagiventhe
availabilityof the resource, thehigh potentialyield andthe potentialfor value addto resourceowners.
就我们的分析而言，根据澳大利亚甘蔗蔗渣的产量计算而得的贴牌乙醇工厂的产能的均值，我们假设乙醇工厂的年产能为
6000 万升(“ML”)。考虑到资源的可用性，潜在的高产量以及对资源所有者潜在的增值，甘蔗渣很可能是 Ethtec 工艺在澳
大利亚乙醇工厂的主要原料之一。
5.3 Ethanolprice 乙醇的价格
We haveadoptedthe import parityprice ("IPP") of ethanolof115 centsperlitreasa proxyfor thewholesale
priceofethanol.ThisIPPhasbeendetermined bytheIndependent PricingandRegulatory Tribunal("IPART") in relationto
wholesale ethanolpricingforpetrol-ethanolblendsin Australia.[Wehavealso consideredpricesfor ethanol basedon terminal
gateprices("TGP") forpetrolwhichwould imply higher prices than implied by the above]
我们采用了乙醇的进口平价(IPP)115 美分/升，作为乙醇的批发价。该 IPP 是由澳大利亚的与汽油乙醇混合定价有关的独
立定价与监管仲裁庭（IPART）确定的。【我们还考虑了基于终端门槛价（TGP）的乙醇价格，因为基于终端门槛价
（TGP）的价格要高于基于上述定价】。
We haveassumedanincrease inethanolpriceovertimebasedonthe assumedinflationrateof2.0%per annum.
我们已根据假设的年通胀率 2.0%，估计随着时间的推移乙醇价格会增加。
While wehaveadopted theabovepriceforour valuation, wealso notethat the selling pricewillbe closelyconnectedto the cost
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offeedstock. This hasbeenevaluated byEthtec throughan analysisof profitabilitybasedon variationsinboth selling priceand
feedstock cost. Asaresultof this analysis, Ethtec believethat an appropriatefeedstock cost wouldbe approximately$50per
drytonne(discussed inSection5.6below) whichrepresents avalueaddtoresourceowners given that the
majorityoffeedstockto theEthtec Processwould be considered waste material otherwise. As such,variations infeedstock
costs willbe closelylinkedtoactual ethanol sellingprice andprofitabilityas awhole.
虽然我们已在我们的评估中使用了上述价格，但我们也注意到销售价格将与原料成本密切相关。Ethtec 公司已对基于销售
价格和原料成本的变化进行了盈利能力的分析，从而对其进行评估。上述分析的结果就是，Ethtec 认为合适的原料成本约
为 50 美元/干吨(将在下文 5.6 中讨论)；对这个价格对于资源所有者来说是一个附加值，因为大多数的原料都被认为是废
物。因此，总地来说，原料成本的变化，会与实际的乙醇售价和盈利能力密切相关。
5.4 Excise 消费税
Until July2016, there hadbeenzero fuelexciseon ethanol. Under currentgovernment legislation, from July2016, a fuel
excise istobeincrementallyapplied toethanolover afour yearperiodto July2020. This exciseisappliedbymultiplying the
current fuel excisebythe ethanolexciserate. Theethanolexcise rate, expressedas apercentageofthefuel excise,is
prescribedbythe ATO.
直到 2016 年 7 月，对乙醇还没有征收消费税。但根据目前的政府立法，将从 2016 年 7 月起对乙醇逐步征收 4 年消费税，
直至 2020 年 7。该消费税是通过将当前的燃油消费税乘以乙醇消费税来来征收的。在燃料消费税中，乙醇消费税是由
ATO 规定的。
The fuelexcisefortheperiodfromFebruary2017to July2017 is40.1 centsperlitrewiththeexcise beingindexedtothe
CPIbiannually(every1 Februaryand1 August).Wehaveadopted thisasourratefor that period (notingthat there isa
corresponding cost) andassumeda biannualincreaseinline withaninflationrate of 2.0%per annum.
自 2017 年 2 月到 6 月的燃油消费税是 40.1 美分/升，并且该消费税与每年的 CPI 挂钩（每年的 2 月 1 日和 8 月 1 日）。我们
把它当做那一时期的费率(注意到有相应的成本)，并假设每年的通货膨胀率为 2.0%。
Given that the first Ethtec ethanolplantisnotexpectedto begin construction until2020,theethanol excisewill befully ramped-up
bythe timethe first plantbeginsoperations.
考虑到首个 Ethtec 乙醇工厂预计到 2020 年才开始建设，因此到首个工厂开始运营时，会被征收完全的乙醇消费税。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
5.5 Ethanolrevenue 乙醇带来的收益
The aboveassumptionson productionvolume, ethanol priceandexcise result inthe followingrevenue profile(after deducting
GSTpayable):上述对于乙醇产量，价格和消费税的假设，会产生以下收益(扣除消费税后)：
Revenue 收益($'000)
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
Year 19
Year 20
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Year7
Year8
Year9
5.6 Costoffeedstock 原料成本
As per the ARENAfundingapplication, feedstock costshavebeenassumed basedona cost per drytonne of $50.Ethtec
haveassumedthatoneof the mainfeedstockswhich willbeused byfutureEthtec plantswillbe sugar cane bagasse.A priceof
$50perdrytonnewouldrepresent a significant valueaddto sugarcaneresource ownersgiventhe majorityof bagasse is
consideredto bewaste.
根据阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资申请，原料成本是基于 50 美元/干吨的成本。Ethtec 假定将来 Ethtec 工厂使用的主要原料
之一就是甘蔗渣。若大多数的甘蔗渣被认为是废物，那么 50 美元/干吨的价格对甘蔗资源所有者来说是一个重大的附加价
值。
The maximumtheoreticalethanol yieldof sugarcanebagasseis 400Lper drytonneof feedstock. Ethtecbelievetheir process
willbe capableofproducingethanolat 70% of the maximumtheoreticalyield whichresultsin280L per drytonne offeedstock.
This percentageyield ispremisedon boththe conversionefficiencyoffeedstockto sugar andthe fermentation efficiencyto
ethanol currentlyachievedbyEthtecin their pilotplant. These assumptionsresultinannual feedstock
usageofapproximately214,286 drytonnes for a 60MLethanolplant.
理论上，甘蔗渣乙醇的最高产量为 400L/每干吨原料。Ethtec 认为理论上他们的工艺将能够产出的最大乙醇产量是上述产出
的 70%，也就是 280L/每干吨原料。这一比例的产量是基于当前其工厂的原料转换率和乙醇发酵率的基础之上的。这些假设
的结果是，对于一个 60ML 的乙醇工厂，其每年消耗的原料为 214,286 干吨。
Otherfeedstockswith potentiallysimilaryieldsto sugar canebagasse includewheatstubbleand radiatapine[sawdust].Ethtec
also considers that boththese feedstocks couldreasonablybepurchasedata costof $50perdrytonne.
其它有甘蔗渣有类似产量的原料包括：麦茬和白松木[木屑]。Ethtec 还认为这些原料都可以以 50 美元/干吨的价格合理购
买。
5.7 Operating expenses 经营支出
Perthe ARENA funding application, operatingexpenses areassumedon adollarsperlitrebasis. Ethtec havequantified this
as34 centsper litre after takinginto considerationvarious studiesonthe economicsof enzymatic hydrolysisfor the production
of cellulosic ethanolandthe expected efficiencyof theEthtec Processbycomparison. This costper litreis believed by Ethtec
tobe a conservative estimateat this stage of the development project.
在阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请中，经营费用是以 1 美元/升计算的。在参考了各种关于纤维素乙醇生产的经济学研究，并
比较了 Ethtec 工艺的预期效率之后，Ethtec 已经将其具化为 34 美分/升。Ethtec 认为在开发项目的这一阶段，每升乙醇的
成本是保守估计。
We haveincludedan inflationaryincreasein operatingexpensesovertimebasedonthe assumedinflationrate of 2.0%.
在假定的 2.0%的通胀率基础上，我们已经包含了随时间推移而增长的通货膨胀。
5.8 Capitalexpenditure and depreciation 资本支出和折旧
The initialoutlayfor the construction of a 60MLEthtecProcess ethanolplanthasbeenestimated byEthtec tobe$150 million.
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From discussionwithEthtec management, we understandthisto bean earlyand conservative estimateof the costbasedon
conversationswithequipmentsuppliersandotherpotential suppliers/stakeholders. Each ethanolplant is expected tohave
auseful lifeof 20 yearstranslating toanannual depreciationrate of 5.0%.
据 Ethtec 估计，建立一个 60ML 的 Ethtec 工艺乙醇工厂的初始支出为 1.5 亿美元。在于 Ethtec 管理层沟通后，我们理解：
基于与设备供应商及其他潜在供应商/利益相关者进行对话，这是一个早期的、保守的成本估计。每个乙醇工厂的使用寿命
预期为 20 年，每年折旧率为 5.0%。
We haveestimatedongoing capexbyassuminga maintainable levelof plant and equipment asapercentageofrevenue.
Thisrepresents theexpectedlevelofplant andequipmentrequiredto sustaina givenlevelofrevenue. For the purpose of our
analysis,wehaveassumed minimal capexintheinitial yearsof operationuntil theplant andequipmentdepreciates toa levelof
75% of revenue. Basedonthese assumptions, depreciationwill remain stablefortheinitiallife oftheplant after which
depreciationand capexwill be closelyaligned. This canbeobservedfrom the capexand depreciation profile below:
我们也已通过假设工厂和设备所处的一个可维持的水平是收入的百分比，从而估计了正在进行的资本支出。这显示为了维
持给定的收益水平，工厂和设备的期望水平是什么。就我们的分析而言，在工厂和设备贬值为之前收益水平的 75%之前，
我们假定在经营的最初几年，工厂承担了最低限度的资本支出。基于这些假设，折旧将在工厂最初的运营中保持稳定，但
在这之后，折旧和资本支出将会紧密地结合在一起。这可以从下面的资本支出和折旧关系看出:
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Capitalexpenditureanddepreciation($'000)
资本支出和折旧($'000)
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
Year 19
Year 20
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Year7
Year8
Year9
Capital expenditure Depreciation 资本支出折旧
5.9 Debtfinancing 举债筹资
Construction of the plant isexpected by Ethtecto be60%debtfundedon averagealthoughitislikelyto beinitiallylower.This
resultsinyearlyrepaymentsof approximately$8.5 million splitbetweenprincipaland interest repaymentsas follows:预计
Ethtec 公司会承担 60%的债务，虽然预期的债务融资要低得多。这会导致 Ethtec 每年支付如下约 850 万美元的本金和利
息:
Financing($'000)融资
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
Year 19
Year 20
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Year7
Year8
Year9
Principal Interest 本金利息
5.10 Netprofitaftertax 税后净利
Based onthe assumptionsabove,anEthtec ethanolplantwillgenerate thefollowing net profitafter taxbeforeany
potentialroyaltyto Ethtec:
基于上述假设，在 Ethtec 收到任何专利使用费之前，一个 Ethtec 乙醇工厂将产生以下税后净利润:
Netprofit 净利润($'000)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
Year 19
Year 20
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Year7
Year8
Year9
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
5.11 Free cash flows 自由现金流量
Based onthe assumptionsabove, an ethanolplant will generatethefollowing net cashflows toequityholders beforeany
potentialroyaltyto Ethtec:基于上述假设，在 Ethtec 收到任何可能的专利费之前，一个乙醇工厂可能为持股者带来下述的净
现金流量：
Freecashflows 自由现金流量
($'000)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
Year 10
Year 11
Year 12
Year 13
Year 14
Year 15
Year 16
Year 17
Year 18
Year 19
Year 20
Year 21
Year 22
Year 23
Year 24
Year 25
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Year7
Year8
Year9
RefertoSection 6.4fortheanalysisofareasonable royaltyrate giventheabove cashflows andplant profitability.
参见下述 6.4 节，获知在假定上述现金流量和工厂盈利率的情况下，对合理的专利权使用费的分析。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
6. EthtecBaseCaseAssumptions Ethtec 基本情况的假设
6.1 Introduction 介绍
Based ontheplantoperationassumptionsin Section5, wehave adoptedthefollowing assumptionsinorder to developa setof
cash flowprojections for Ethtec.Whilst we havenotconducteddetailed analysisofeachoftheseassumptions,nothing has come
to our attention which would lead us to conclude the assumptions, when taken as a whole, are notreasonable.
基于第 5 节中对工厂经营的假设，为了开发一套针对 Ethtec 的现金流预测，我们采用了下述的假设。虽然我们还未对这些假
设进行详细分析，但当我们整体考量时，我们不会因某些能引导我们总结这些假设的原因，而认为这些假设是不合理的。
Referto Appendix7fordetailedforecasts basedon theseassumptions.预知基于这些假设的详细预估，请参见附件 7.
6.2 Ethanolplants and volume 乙醇工厂和体积
Forthepurpose of thisanalysis,wehaveassumed thefirst Ethtec plant willbe a mixedethanol / xylitol co-production
plantandall subsequentplantswillbeethanol-onlyplants(no co-products). The mixedplant willhave anameplate ethanol
production capacityof36MLper yearandaxylitol production capacityof18,857tonneswhereas eachethanol- onlyplant
willhavean ethanolproduction capacityof60MLper year. The number of plantsassumed tobecome operational over the
forecast periodhas beenbasedon theforecastsdetailed inthe ARENA fundingapplication withthe maximum number of
plants being cappedat29. Thistotalnumberof plantsis basedonanticipatedethanol demandin Australia
assuminganationwide 10% mandateforethanoluseinpetrol blendsandequates toapproximately1.75billion litres of ethanol.
Ethtecexpects toreach thisnumberof plants by2032 withthe followingramp-upprofile:就本分析而言，我们假定首个工厂将会是一个
乙醇/木糖醇联合生产工厂，并且此后的所有工厂将只生产乙醇(无副产品)。混合工厂铭牌乙醇产能为 36ML，木糖醇的产能为 18,857 吨。而每个只
生产乙醇工厂的乙醇年产能为 60ML。在预测期间，假定为可经营的工厂数量，是根据提交给阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资申请中详细预测而定的，但
是工厂的最大数量不能超过 29。工厂的数量取决于澳大利亚预期的乙醇需求，也就是假设在全澳范围内，在汽油中使用乙醇的比例为 10%，就相
当于大约有 17.5 亿升乙醇的需求。预计 Ethtec 将在 2032 年达到这一数量，同时具有如下增长概况:
Numberofplants 工厂的数量
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
6.3 Ethanoland xylitolrevenue 乙醇和木糖醇带来的收益
Forecastethanolrevenue attributableto Ethtecis afunctionoftheethanol pricingand exciseassumptions detailedin Section
5andthe plant andvolume assumptionsdescribedinSection 6.2above.
Ethtec 应得收益的预测是乙醇定价和消费税假设的功能，这在第 5 节中详细给出；工厂和假设体积在上文 6.2 节中给出。
In addition, wehave assumedtheprice of xylitolto be$2.50perkg. While currentxylitolpricesare approximately$5.00 perkg,
the costefficienciesofproducingxylitolusing theEthtecProcess arelikelyto beoneofthe maindrivers for the take-up of the
processforxylitolproduction. Currently,thehigh priceofxylitolisa deterrent to its morewidespread usage asa sugar
alternative.
另外，我们假设木糖醇的价格是 2.50 美元/公斤。虽然目前木糖醇的价格大约是 5 美元/公斤，但是使用 Ethtec 工艺生产
木糖醇的成本效率很可能是木糖醇生产过程的主要驱动因素之一。目前，木糖醇的高价格阻碍了它作为糖替代品的广泛使
用。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Based on theseassumptions,thefollowing revenuesare expectedto beattributable toEthtec:
基于上述假设，Ethtec 期望收到下述收益：
Attributablerevenue 应计收益($'m)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
6.4 Royaltyrevenue forEthtecEthtec 获得的专利使用费收益
Based onthe forecast plant profitabilityfor an ethanol-onlyplant, we haveassessed areasonableroyaltyratetobe between
[6.0%]and[7.0%]ofsales. This combinedroyaltyrate representsapproximately[19%] to [22%] of the projected EBITfor an
Ethtecethanol plant or[32%] to [37%] of cash flowsto equityfrom anethanol plant. We donotconsider this to bean
unreasonable share of theprofits / cash flowsfor Ethtecgiventhe importanceof Ethtec'sIPingeneratingthis
revenue.Wenotethisisalso broadlyinlinewiththe "25%rule". The"25%rule" isanindustryruleofthumbbasedon the concept
thattheuser ofanintangibleassetwouldbewilling topayapproximately25%of EBITtolicense anasset.We consider this
representsan equitable sharing oftheeconomic profitsbetween Ethtec, resource owners, equipmentproviders and
productoff-take participants.
基于对乙醇工厂盈利的预测，我们经评估，确定了合理的专利使用费的税率在 6.0%和 7.0%之间。这组专利使用费大约占
到一个 Ethtec 乙醇工厂 EBIT 的 19%，或是一个 Ethtec 乙醇工厂股权现金流量的 32%到 37%。我们不认为这个比例对于
Ethtec 的利润/现金流来说是不不合理的，因为考虑到 Ethtec 的 IP 在产生此类收入方面的重要性。我们注意到这种情况也
大致符合 25%规则。25%规则是一个基于经验的行业规则，而经验基于一个概念：即无形资产用户愿意支付大约 25%的
EBIT 来获得某个资产。我们认为这展现了 Ethtec、资源所有者、设备供应商和产品承购参与者之间对经济利润的公平分
配。
A[6.0%] to [7.0%] royaltyrateon salesof both ethanoland xylitolwill alsoresult in a similarshareofprofitsfor Ethtec from a
mixed ethanol/xylitolplant.
乙醇和木糖醇的专利使用费的费率为销售额的 6.0%到 7.0%，会导致 Ethtec 把混合乙醇/木糖醇的工厂的进行类似的利
益分配。
[We havealsoassumeda $3 milliondollar upfrontlicensingfeefor everynewplant adoptingthe EthtecProcesswhichis in
linewith theassumptions inthe ARENA funding application.]
【对于采用了 Ethtec 工艺的每个新工厂，我们假设它们会收到 300 万美元的预付许可费，这与阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资
申请中的假设一致。】
From discussionwith Ethtec management, Ethtec willlikelyenter intotechnical serviceagreements ("TSA") toprovide
theirexpertiseduring the constructionphase of each plant (in conjunction withthe engineering, procurement and
construction contractors) as wellas ongoing consulting servicesaftercommencement ofplant operation.Thetermofeach
TSA isexpected tobeapproximately10yearswithfees currentlyestimatedto be500,000per annum duringthe firstfiveyears of
the arrangement and200,000 per annum for the followingfiveyears.
从与 Ethtec 管理层的讨论中可知，Ethtec 将来可能会签订一份技术服务协议（TSA），以在每个工厂(与工程、采购及建
筑承包商合作)的建设阶段提供专业知识，以及在工厂运作后继续提供咨询服务。每个 TSA 的期限预计是 10 年左右，目前
估计前 5 年中每年的费用为 50 万美元，而在接下来的 5 年里每年的费用为 20 万美元。
These assumptionsproduce thefollowing revenue stream:
这些假设产生了以下收入流：
Royaltyrevenue 专利使用费收益($'000)
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
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60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
6.5 Grantincome and funding 补助性收入和融资
From the ARENA funding application, we understandthat Ethtechas budgetedforthefollowing contributionsto the
projectfrom several interestedparties:从阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资申请中，我们了解到：Ethtec 为以下几个感兴趣的项目
提供了以下的预算：
◆ ARENA:$11.85 million
阿瑞娜（ARENA）：1185 万美元
◆ Universityof Newcastle ("UON"): $2.28 million
纽卡斯尔大学（UON）：228 万美元
◆ NSWGovernment ("NSWGov"):$6.30 million
新南威尔士州政府(“NSW 政府”):630 万美元
◆ Muswellbrook ShireCouncil("Muswellbrook"): $1.25 million
马瑟尔布鲁克郡议会(“Muswellbrook”):125 万美元
Contributions fromthree of theabove parties(UON, NSWGovandMuswellbrook) [have been confirmed]withthe
ARENAcontributionbeing the subject ofanongoing application.Theform of thisfunding fromARENAis currently expected
tobe mostly(if notexclusively) inthe formof equity.For thepurpose of our analysis,wehaveassumed that all ofthe ARENA
funding willbereceivedas equityinvestmentswhile therest of the abovefundingwillbe receivedas (taxable)grant income
over the next fiveyears.
来自上述 3 方(UON, NSWGovandMuswellbrook)的出资，[已被证实]与从阿瑞娜（ARENA）的出资，而这种出资是当前融
资申请的目标。来阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资形式目前主要是股权形式（若非独占）。就我们的分析而言，我们假设所有的
来自阿瑞娜（ARENA）的融资都将作为股权投资的形式获得，而上述的其余融资都将未来五年内以(纳税)拨款收入的形式
获得。
We alsonotethatthereremains$8.32 millionworthoffundingtobe raisedbasedon budgetedexpenditureto completion of the
development project in 2021. We have assumedthatthisfurther funding willbereceived inthe formofequityinvestments in
Ethtec.
我们还注意：根据预算支出，要在 2021 年完成项目开发的话，目前仍有 832 万美元的资金需要筹集。我们假定这笔未来
需要的资金 Ethtec 将以股权投资的形式收到。
6.6 Royaltyto ApaceApace 收到的专利使用费
We understandthat Ethtecisrequired toachieve cumulative salesof1.5times itsinvestedequitycapitalbefore a5% royaltyon
sales(overtheequitythreshold)becomespayableto Apace. Once cumulative salesof 7.5 timestheinvested
equitycapitalhave beenachieved, a royaltyof 10% on salesbecomes effectivefor everydollar over thatthreshold. This
results in thefollowing royaltypaymentprofile: 我们了解到：在 Apace 收到基于 5%的销售额(超过股本阀值)的专利使用费
之前， 要求 Ethtec 的累计销售额为其投资股本的 1.5 倍。一旦累计销售额达到其投资股本的 7.5 倍，对于超出的部分，要
征收 10%的特许权使用费。这就会产生下述专利使用费:
RoyaltytoApace($'000)Apace 的专利使用费
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 23of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
6.7 Operating expenses 经营支出
Base operatingexpensesof$2.5 million(before inflation) per annumare assumedfor the development periodfrom2017 to
2021asper the ARENA application. Operatingexpenses arethenassumedto increaseby20%overthebasefor
everynewplantadoptingthe EthtecProcess reflectingtheadditional costsincurred by Ethtec for sales and
marketing,negotiating and maintaining ongoingarrangements withlicenseesorconsortiumpartners andthe costsof further
research anddevelopmenttorefineorimprovethe EthtecProcess.
根据阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请，从 2017 年到 2021 年，每年的基础运营费用为 250 万美元(在通货膨胀之前)。然后假设
每个新工厂的经营费用增加 20%，以反映 Ethtec 因销售和营销所产生的额外成本、与被许可方或财团协商并保持现有安排
的费用，以及进一步研发的成本，以改进或精细化 Ethtec 工艺。
Operatingexpenses 经营支出($'000)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
6.8 Capitalexpenditure and depreciation 资本支出和折旧
Capital expenditureover thefive year developmentperiodto 2021hasbeenassumed basedonthebudgetedyearly
expenditures outlinedin the ARENA funding application. Asthe budgetedyearlyexpenditureisinclusive of both operating
and capital costs, wehave deductedannualoperating costs(describedin Section6.7above)fromtotalyearly expenditure
toarrive at an estimateoftheimplied annual capital expenditureforthat period.
根据阿瑞娜（ARENA）融资申请中概述的年度开支，我们假设了五年开发期间内的资本支出（到 2021 年）。由于预算年
度支出包括经营成本和资本成本，我们已在总年度支出中扣除了年度经营成本(上文第 6.7 条所述)，以估算该期间的年度
资本支出。
We havealsoassumed Ethtec's capitalassets are split between businessequipment and thepilot plant withusefullives
of10yearsand 20yearsrespectively. Depreciationonthepilotplant isassumed tobeginafter 2021 oncedevelopmentofthe
EthtecProcess is complete.我们还假设 Ethtec 的资本性资产分别用于由业务设备的 10 年投资和试验工厂的 20 年投资。
一旦 Ethtec 工艺的开发完成，预计从 2021 年之后试点工厂开始折旧。
We havethenestimated ongoing capitalexpenditurebyassuminga maintainablelevel of plant andequipmentasa
percentage of revenue. This representstheexpected levelof plantandequipment required to sustaina givenlevelofrevenue
asongoingresearchanddevelopmentwillberequiredto maintain andenhancetheprocessovertime. For the purpose of our
analysis,wehaveassumed minimal capexinthe initialyearsafterthedevelopment perioduntil theplantand equipment
depreciatesto alevelof40%of revenue. Basedonthese assumptions, thefollowing capexand depreciation profiles are
forecast:之后我们通过假设维持工厂和设备运营水平所需资金占收入的百分比，估算了持续的资本支出。这给出了维持给
定水平的收益所需的工厂和设备水平，因为随着时间的推移，在一段时间内研发还会继续，工艺也还会加强。就我们的分
析而言，我们假设了在研发阶段之后的最初几年间间，当工厂和设备的这就幅度达到了 40%的时候的，最低资本支出。根
据这些假设，预测存在以下资本支出和折旧情况:
Capitalexpenditureanddepreciation 资本支出和折旧($'000)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
Capital expenditure Depreciation
资本支出折旧
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
6.9 R&D tax incentive 研发税收优惠
R&Dtaxincentiveshave beenassumedas apercentageof total operatingand capital expenditurebasedonamounts and
proportions reportedin the auditedhistorical financial statements.
基于往年审计的财务报表中的数额和比例，我们假设研发税收优惠是总营运和资本支出的一定比例的百分比。
The current R&Dtaxincentiveratesprescribed bythe ATOare:
目前，ATO 提出的研发税收优惠税率为:
◆ A43.5%refundable taxoffset foreligibleentities withanaggregated turnover oflessthan$20 millionper annum
对于年总营业额低于 2000 万美元的实体，征收 43.5%的可退还的税收补偿
◆ A38.5% non-refundabletaxoffset forallothereligibleentities
对所有其他符合条件的实体征收 38.5%的不可退还税款
These ratesare applied against eligible expenditureto calculatethe taxoffset.
这些利率适用于符合条件的支出，以计算税收补偿。
Given theabove datapoints, we haveassumedan R&D taxincentive of 40%oftotaloperatingand capitalexpenditure
foryearsinwhichrevenue islessthan$20 million and35%of totaloperating and capitalexpenditureforyearsinwhich revenue is
morethan$20 million. Wehavealso assumedadecliningproportion of totalexpenditureiseligiblefor the incentive
toreflecttheincreasinglycommercialfocus of Ethtecovertime. The proportionofeligibleexpenditureis assumed
todecreaseby10% per annumafter 2021.
在给定上述数据的基础上，我们假定当收益不到 2000 万美元的几年间，研发税收优惠是总营运及资本支出的 40%，而且
收益超过了 2000 万美元的几年间，研发税收优惠是总营运及资本支出的 35%。我们还假定：随着时间的推移，总支出的
下降部分适用于反应了一些优惠，反映出 Ethtec 逐渐增长的商业重点。
6.10 Tax rate and tax losses 税率和税收损失
We haveassumed incometaxis payableat the Australian corporatetaxrateof 30%.Wealsonote that Ethtechas
broughtforwardtaxlossesof $1,769,313 asof 30 June2016. The taxeffect oftheselosses is$504,254and hasbeen applied
inour analysis.
我们假设：所得税是按澳大利亚公司税率的 30%支付的。我们还注意到：截至 2016 年 6 月 30 日，Ethtec 承担了
1,769,313 美元的税收损失。这些税收损失的课税影响是 504,254 美元，并在我们的分析中也用到了。
6.11 Forecastperiod and terminalvalue 预测周期和终端价值
We haveadopteda discreteforecast period of 26years witha continuing valueat the endof the forecast periodonthe basis
of capitalising free cash flowsin perpetuity. Thediscrete forecast period takesinto account the cashflow projections
provided tous by Ethtec,thelength ofthe development period,theexpected take-uprate for the Ethtec Process,theramp-
up profileofthe companyand theexpected lifeofanethanolplant.
我们基于充分利用自由现金流的基础之上，采取了一个不连续的 26 年预测期，并且在预测期结束时的持续价值。离散预
测期考虑到了由 Ethtec 提供给我们的现金流预测，开发周期的长度， Ethtec 工艺的预期吸纳率，公司的发展状况，以及
乙醇工厂的预期寿命。
6.12 Netcash flows 净现金流量
Based onthe assumptionsabove, the followingfree cashflowsare forecast (presented usingthelowerroyaltyrateof6.0%):
基于以上假设，预测了下述自由现金流量(假设使用较低的专利使用费率 6.0%)：
Freecashflows 自由现金
流量($'000)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 21of59
-10,000
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
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2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
7. DiscountRate 贴现率
7.1 Overview 概述
The discount rate representstherisk-adjusted rateofreturnaninvestorwouldordinarilyexpect for an asset, givenits
specific riskprofile.It isused todiscount future cashflowsin relationtoan asset in order toarrive at avalue for the
asset.The discount rate compensatesan investor for:
鉴于个别风险预测，贴现率代表了投资者通常会对资产的预期期望的风险调整盈利率。为了实现某个字长的价值，风险
调整盈利率被用来贴现与该资产有关的未来现金流。贴现率在下述方面补偿了投资者:
◆ The timevalueof money
货币的时间价值
◆ The relative riskinessoftheinvestment.
投资的相对风险
The calculationof adiscountrateisexplainedinAppendix11(page53).
附件 11 给出了贴现率的计算 (第 53 页)中解释。
7.2 Assessmentofdiscountrates 贴现率的评估
In determiningan appropriatediscountrate, wehave consideredthe relativeriskinessassociated withthe forecast cash flows
andthe typicalratesofreturnrequiredbyinvestorsfor investments with similar risks as shownin thetablebelow:
在确定适当的贴现率的时候，对于具有类似风险的投资，我们考虑了投资者要求的、与预测现金流和典型回报率有关的相对
风险，如下表所示:
Discount Eys 贴现率调查
ratesurv
Source 来源 Final Stage 最后阶段 Bridge/IPO
Stern Schoolof Business 斯特恩商学院 1 35-50% 25-35%
HarvardBusinessSchool 哈佛商学院 2 20-26% 16-23%
LondonBusinessSchool 伦敦商学院 3 20-34% 17-23%
Manigartet alManigart 等人 4 26-30% n/a
Pepperdine University 佩珀代因大学 5 21-31% 18-28%
Sources:
1 Valuing Young,Start-up and Growth Companies:Estimation issuesand Valuation Challenges,Aswath Damodaran,Stern Schoolof
Business,NewYorkUniversity,May2009
2 Insightsfromthe American Venture CapitalOrganisation,Harvard BusinessSchool,1991
3 Venture Capitalin the United Kingdom,The London BusinessSchool,April1994
4 Determinantsofrequired return in venture capitalinvestments:Afive countrystudy,Sophie Manigartetal,2002
5 Pepperdine Private CapitalMarketsProject:CapitalMarketsReport2016,Graziadio SchoolofBusinessand Management
来源
1. 评价初期、创业和成长型企业: 评估问题和评估挑战，Aswath Damodaran，纽约大学斯特恩商学院，2009 年 5 月。
2. 美国风投组织的观察，哈佛商学院，1991 年。
3. 英国风投，伦敦商业学校，1994 年 4 月。
4. 风投资要求回报的决定因素:对五个国家的研究，索菲马尼戈特等人,2002 年；
5. 佩珀代因私人资本市场项目: 2016 年资本市场报告，格拉齐亚迪奥经营管理学院。
One of theleading researchersintothe costof capitalforsmallprivate companiesis Dr. JohnK Paglia of Pepperdine
University. Dr. Paglia isone of thefounders of the PrivateCapitalMarkets Project publishes regular updates tothe
Private CapitalMarkets Report. The March2016 report contained thefollowing datapoints:
佩珀代因大学的 John K Paglia 博士是小私有企业资本成本的主要研究人员之一。Paglia 博士是私人资本市场项目的创
始人之一，定期更新私人资本市场的报告。2016 年 3 月的报告包含以下数据点:
◆ Median discount rate for seed stage venture capital investmentswas38%
种子期风险投资的中间贴现率为 38%
◆ Median discount rate for startup stageventure capitalinvestments was33%
启动期风险投资的中间贴现率为 33%
◆ Median discount rate for seed stage angelinvestments was35.5%
种子期天使投资的中间贴现率为 35.5%
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◆ Median discount rate for startup stageangel investmentswas 35.5%
启动期天使投资的中间贴现率为 35.5%
We notethat the abovediscount rates aretypicallyapplied toa single scenario andthereforeinclude risksassociated with
downside scenarios andfailurewhich wehave attempted to consider using probabilityweightings.
我们注意到，上述贴现率通常适用于单个方案，因此包括与下行方案和失败相关的风险，此类失败指的是我们已经尝试
考虑使用概率权重，但仍然失败了。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
7.3 CAPMbuild-upCAPM 积累
While theCAPMis better suited toassessingdiscountratesfor largercompaniesthanEthtec,wehaveused the model as a
cross-checkto our assesseddiscount rates.
虽然 CAPM 更适合于评估大公司的贴现率，而不是评估 Ethtec 的的贴现率，我们已用该模型反复核对，以评估我们的贴
现率。
Discount ratesummary 贴现率小结
Low 低 High 高
Risk freerate (Rf)无风险折现率 2 2.7%
.
Equitybeta(β)权益贝塔 1.00 1.10
7
Equitymarket riskpremium(EMRP)股市风险溢价 6.5%
% 6.5%
Standard CAPMcost of equity 标准 CAPM 的权益成本 9.2% 9.9%
Sizepremium(αsize)规模溢价 7 8.0%
Specific riskpremium(αc)具体风险溢价 .3 3.0%
0.
Assessedcost of equity(ke)评估股权成本 19.2%
%0 20.9%
%
Gearing (D/V)资金杠杆 10.0% 5.0%
Costof debt(Kd)举债成本 7.5% 8.5%
Taxrate(t)税率 30.0% 30.0%
CalculatedWACC 加权平均计算 17.8% 20.1%
SelectedWACC 选择加权平均 18.0% 20.0%
7.4 Conclusion 结论
We believeEthtec is most similartoaventure capitalorangelinvestor startup fundingstage company. However, wenote
thattheabove startuprates of returnoften includea significant premium toaccount forfailurerisk. Aswe areassessing the
riskof failure separatelyinour scenarioanalysis andprobabilityweighting, we believealowerdiscountrateis more appropriate.
As such,wehave assessedthe discountrate of 20.0%.
我们认为：Ethtec 与风险投资或天使投资创业融资阶段的公司最为相似。然而，我们注意到：上述创业公司的回报率通常包
括了一个大额费用，用于应对失败的风险。当我们分别在方案分析和概率加权中评估失败风险时，我们认为较低的折扣率更
合适。因此，我们评估贴现率为 20.0%。
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 25of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
8. Enterprise Value 企业价值
8.1 Presentvalue offorecastperiod 预测期的折现值
Using the cashflowprojectionsanddiscountratesdiscussedpreviouslywedeterminedan enterprisevaluefor Ethtec using
thebase case cashflowsas follows(presentedusing thelower royaltyrateof 6.0%):
使用之前讨论过的现金流预测和贴现率，我们通过下述基本案例的现金流（使用的专利使用费费率为 6.0%），确定了
Ethtec 的企业价值：
Presentvalue 折现值($'000)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
The net presentvalueof these cashflowprojections is$41.1 million to$47.7 million applyingadiscountrateof 20.0%.
使用的贴现率为 20.0%的情况下，这些现金流预测的净现值为 4110 万美元至 4770 万美元。
8.2 Terminalvalue 终值
We havedetermineda continuingvalueattheendof theforecast period onthebasisofcapitalisingfree cash flowsin
perpetuity.This isdetermined with thefollowing formula:
在充分利用自由现金流的基础之上，我们确定了在预测期结束时的续营价值。该价值可由以下公式决定的:
Formula 公式 Components 分量
Vt =CFt+l/(γ-g) Vt = thevalueattime't
CFt+1 = expected cashflowat time't+1' r
= thediscount rate
g= the longtermgrowthrate
Vt =时间't 时的值
CFt+1 =时间't+1'是预期的现金流
r = 贴现率
g= 长期增长率
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
This value must be discountedbackto itspresent value,asper the calculationbelow.
这个值必须按照下面计算方法，折现到现值。
We haveassumed that thegrowth infree cash flowswillapproximate our estimateofthe Australianlong-term nominal
inflation rate(2.0%),implyingazero realgrowth ratefor the businesstoallowfor theuncertaintyinrespectof volumes and
pricingover time.Thisresultsina terminalvalueasfollows:
我们假设自由现金流的增长可能会接近我们预估的澳大利亚长期名义通货膨胀率(2.0%)，这说明业务的实际增长率为零，
以允许随着时间的推移存在数量和价格上的不确定性。这就导致如下终值：
Terminal Value 终值($'000)
Low 低 High 高
Discount Rate 贴现率 20.0% 20.0%
Long termgrowth rate 长期增长率 2.0% 2.0%
Multiple 盈利倍数 [A] 5.6x 5.6x
Unlevered free cash flow 无杠杆自由现金流(t0) 78,389 94,247
Growth at long termgrowth rate 长期增长率的增长 1,568 1,885
Unleveredfreecash flow 无杠杆自由现金流(t1) [B] 79,957 96,132
Terminalvalue 终值 [AxB] 444,203 534,069
Discountfactor 贴现因素 0.010 0.010
Presentvalueofterminal value 终值的折现值 4,251 5,111
8.3 Enterprise value 企业价值
The base caseenterprise valuerangeof Ethtecis calculated inthetablebelow:
Ethtec 的基础案例中的企业价值范围在以下表格中进行了计算:
Enterprise Value 公司价值 ($'000)
Low High
NPVof cashflows 现金流的净现值 41,125 47,747
Terminalvalue 终值 4,251 5,111
Enterprise Value 公司价值 45,376 52,857
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
9. Scenario Analysis 方案分析
9.1 Introduction 介绍
Given theearlystagenature of Ethtec andthe uncertaintiesinherentinforecasts of future operationsand cashflowsfor an
entitywithno commercialtrackrecord (asis common for earlystage companies),wehaveevaluated other potential scenarios
in conjunctionwith informationprovidedbymanagement. These scenariosare describedbelow.
考虑到 Ethtec 的早期特性，以及对一个无商业记录（对于还处于早期阶段的公司来说，这是很常见的）的实体的未来经营
和现金流预测来说固有的不确定性，我们已经评估了与管理层提供的信息有关的其它可能方案。这些方案在下文进行详细
描述。
9.2 Upside case 上涨情况
The base case scenarioassumes productionvolumes arein linewithpotentialdomestic demand. Oneof theprobable
avenues for commercialisation of the EthtecProcessincludes thepotential for theprocess tobe utilisedbyplants outside
of Australia. Whilethere isalsopotential for Australian-produced ethanoltobe exportedoverseas(assuming
sufficientlocal supply),the costs of exportingalong withtariffs or exciseimposed byimporting countries mayprove
prohibitive. As such,we consider it more probablythat theprocess is simplyadoptedforusein secondgeneration ethanol
plants internationally, likelyin conjunction withlocal partners.
基本情况中的的假定产量与潜在的国内需求相一致。Ethtec 工艺的商业化的可能途径之一，包括该工艺在澳大利亚以外
的工厂使用的可能性。尽管澳大利亚产乙醇也有出口到海外的可能(假设当地供应充足)，但是进口国家征收关税或消费
税的成本可能过高。因此，我们认为：该工艺在国际上用于工厂生产二代乙醇的可能性要更大于，很可能与当地合作伙
伴一起合作。
In addition, Ethtec managementbelievethata cost-effectivexylitol productionprocess (such asthrough theEthtec
Process)willenableexpansion of thexylitol market andfuel further demandforxylitolasa sugar alternative. Wehave therefore
incorporatedinternational royaltiesfromutilisation of theEthtec Process anda royaltyon sales of xylitol from two plantsinto
our upside case.
此外，Ethtec 的管理层认为:一种合乎成本效益的木糖醇生产工艺（比如通过 Ethtec 工艺）能扩大木糖醇市场，进一步推
动木糖醇作为糖的替代品。因此，我们已将使用 Ethtec 工艺的国际专利使用费以及两个工厂的木糖醇销售专利使用费结合
到了我们的上涨情况中。
The followingisa summaryof theassumptions madeinrelation totheupside case:
以下是上涨情况中假设的摘要信息:
◆ The first two Ethtecplants areassumedto be mixed ethanol/xylitolplants with every plant after thatassumedtobe
ethanol-onlyplantsdue touncertaintyinoverall marketsizeforxylitoland theabilityfor Ethtecto captureaproportion ofthat
market. Each mixed plant hasa nameplateethanol production capacityof36MLand xylitol capacityof 18,857
tonnes.Theinitial capitaloutlayto construct a mixedethanol / xylitolplants isassumed tobe1.5 timesthe cost of a pure
ethanolplant. Operating costsperlitreof ethanol producedare assumedtoremain the same. However,additional
operating costsof $1 per kgof xylitol producedareassumedto beincurred
前两个 Ethtec 工厂被设定为乙醇/木糖醇混合工厂，在这之后，由于木糖醇整个市场的不确定性，以及 Ethtec 为了占领
一部分市场，这两个工厂被假定为纯乙醇工厂。每一个混合工厂的铭牌乙醇产能为 36ML，木糖醇的产能为 18,857 吨。
建立混合乙醇/木糖醇工厂的初始资本支出，假定为纯乙醇工厂成本的 1.5 倍。每升乙醇的生产成本被认为是不变的。但
是，也认为每生产一千克木糖醇会产生额外经营成本。
◆ The first international EthtecProcess plant is assumedtobegin operations5 yearsafterthefirstoperationalplant in
Australia.Theramp-up profileof international plantsis assumedtofollowa similar ramp-up profileto Australia. The
maximum number of plants hasbeen capped at 116plants whichis[fourtimes] theforecastmaximumnumber ofAustralian
plantsin thebase case. Given that globalethanol productionin [2025] is forecast to beapproximately[130]billion litres,
116 plantsproducingapproximately6.9billionlitres of ethanol still representsonly5% of global production
◆ All other baseassumptionsremainthe sameasthebase case
所有其他情况中的基本假设与基本情况中的保持一致
The aboveassumptions generatethe followingprojectedfree cashflows usingthelowerroyaltyrate of6.0%:
在使用了较低的专利使用费费率 6.0%，上述假设产生了下述预期自由现金流量：
Freecashflows 自由现
金流量($'000)
350,000
300,000
250,000
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200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
These cashflowprojections produceanenterprisevalue of $110.2 million to$128.7 millionapplying adiscount rateof20.0%.
基于这些现金流预测，在贴现率为 20.0%的情况下，公司的企业价值为 1.102 亿美元至 1.870 亿美元。
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9.3 Lowcase
The successful completionof Phases3and 4of theresearch anddevelopment oftheEthtecProcessincludes demonstrating
particular levels of efficiencyat fermenting Ethtec sugarsolutionsto ethanolatcommercial scale aswell as
demonstratingthe commercial advantagesina combinedethanolrecoveryandwastetreatmentprocess.Basedon the
documentationprovided anddiscussions withEthtec management, should theseprocesses proveless efficient than
envisaged,commercialisationoftheEthtecProcess would still beachievablebyincorporatingexisting thirdparty processes or
technologyinto theEthtecProcessand / or through commercialising other productswhich could alsobe developed fromthe
sameprocess. There aretherefore awiderange of potential outcomes, inthis instance, in termsofethanol /
xylitolproductionvolumes(which could stillaligntothe Base caseor UpsideCase asper above) and/ or pricing andvolumes
from commercialisationofother products such asxylitolonly,bioplastics, etc. As
wehavenotspecificallyconsideredotherpotentialproductsormarketsto commercialise
theexistingtechnology(whichwouldlikely have alower addressable market and/or margins),we
havethereforeimplicitlyreflected thispotentialin our assessed royaltyrate. As such,for thepurpose of this
scenario,wehaveassumed productionvolumesatsimilar scaleto thebase case,albeit with higher plant operating costsand
implicitlylower royaltyrevenuesavailableto Ethtec. Alower royalty return of[2.0%] to [3.0%]hasbeen appliedin this
scenarioreflecting thesefactors.
Ethtec 工艺研发中，阶段 3 和阶段 4 的成功实施，包括证明在商业规模下，使用发酵的 Ethtec 糖溶液转化成特定浓度乙
醇的效率，以及证明混合乙醇回收和废物处理过程中的商业优势。基于提供的文档以及与 Ethtec 管理层的讨论，得知这些
过程应该比设想的效率更低，但通过现有的第三方工艺整个到 Ethtec 工艺中，以及/或通过商业化同一个工艺中的其它产
品，Ethtec 工艺的商业化仍然可实现。因此在此例中，存在很多潜在结果，比如从乙醇/木糖醇的产量(仍然可以对应到基
本情况或上涨情况中的每种情况)和/或定价，以及其它产品的商业化，如木糖醇，生物塑料等。因为我们没有特别考虑其
他可能影响现有技术商业化（可能会有一个更低可寻址市场和/或利润率）的产品或市场，因此我们已在经评估的专利费率
中含蓄地反映了这点。所以就这个设想来说，尽管有更高的工厂运营成本，也暗暗地降低了 Ethtec 的版税收入，我们假设
产量与基本情况相似。在反映这些因素的方案中，应用了较低的专利使用费费率[2.0%]到[3.0%]。
The aboveassumptions generatethe followingprojectedfree cashflows usingthelowerroyaltyrate of2.0%:
在使用较低专利使用费费率 2.0%的情况下，上述假设会产生下述预期的自由现金流。
Freecashflows 自由现
金流量($'000)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
These cashflowprojections produceanenterprisevalue of $12.3 million to$19.9 millionapplying a discount rateof20.0%.
在贴现率为 20.0%的情况下，基于这些现金流预测，企业价值估计为 1,230 万美元至 1,990 万美元。
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9.4 Failure case
The final scenariowhichwe haveincludedinouranalysisaccountsfor the failureof theprojecttoreach commercialisation
stage. There couldbevarious factors contributingto thisoutcome includingtechnicalbarriers anda lack of funding.For
thepurpose of thisanalysis,wehaveassumed that theprojectisdiscontinued attheend of 2021 (the expectedend point of the
researchanddevelopmentproject) withno revenuegenerated. This assumptionresultsin the following cashflowprofile:
我们的分析中所含的最后一个方案解释了该项目未能商业化的原因。导致这一结果的原因可能各种各样，包括技术壁垒和
资金缺乏。就本分析而言，我们假定该项目在 2021 年年底（研发项目的预期终点）停产，同时没有任何收益。这样的假
设会产生如下的现金流概况:
Freecashflows 自由现
金流量($'000)
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
-3,000
-3,500
-4,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
The net presentvalueof these negative cashflowprojectionsis negative$6.5 million applyingadiscountrateof 20.0%.
在贴现率为 20.0%的情况下，这些负现金流的净现值是- 650 万美元。
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10. Scenario Outputand Conclusion 方案的产出和结论
10.1 Introduction 介绍
In order todetermine anassessedvalue for Ethtec,wehave assignedthefourpossible scenariosoutlinedin Sections6 and
9aprobabilityweighting. Eachprobabilityweightinghasbeen selected in conjunctionwith discussionswith managementabout
the likelihoodofeachoutcome.
为了确定 Ethtec 的评估值，我们已经为第 6 和 9 节中的四种可能方案进行了概率加权。每一个概率加权值的选择都与管理层
对每个结果的可能性的讨论有关。
10.2 Scenario output 方案产出
The followingtabledetails theassumptionsunderpinningeach selectedprobabilityvalue andtheassessedvalue of each scenario:
下面的表格详细描述了基于每个所选概率值和每个方案评估值的假设:
Scenario Output 方案产出($'000)
Enterprise Value 企业价值
Scenarios 方案 Evaluation 评估 Probability 概率
Low 低 High 高
Base case Mostlikelyoutcomegiventhelowremainingtechnical risksof the 50% 45,376 52,857
project,asadvised by Ethtec,andthe interest in theproject
shown bypotential investors 就如 Ethtec 的建议一样，最有可能的结果是该项目
的技术风险较低，并且潜在投资者表现出对该项目的兴趣。
The underlyingassumptionsinthis
scenariogenerallyrepresentreasonablylikelyorconservativeestimates of
future performance
本方案中，基本假设通常代表了对未来绩效的合理估计或保守估计。
Upside case Given the significant ramp-upinforecast revenue under this 20% 110,190 128,742
scenario andthe levelof uncertaintyinvolvedin estimatingtake-
up ratesfortwodistinctproductionprocesses (ethanolandxylitol)
which are stillindevelopment, we haveassignedthis scenarioa
lowprobabilityweighting 考虑到在本方案下预测收入的大幅增长以及不确定性的
程度，涉及估计两种不同生产工艺（仍在开发中）的吸纳率（乙醇和木糖醇），我们已给该
方案分配了一个低概率加权。
In addition,xylitolis stilla relativelynewopportunityfor Ethtec (compared
toethanol) whichhas not beenexplored in great detail
此外，对 Ethtec 来说木糖醇还是一个相对较新的机遇(与乙醇相比)，也是一个还未详细探讨的机
遇。
Lowcase From discussionwithEthtec management, itisbelievedthat it is 25% 12,302 19,880
more likelyfor commercial scaletestingto produceless-than-
optimal production efficienciesthan fortheentire EthtecProcess
to be considered commerciallyunfeasible. As such,we consider
this scenariolesslikelythan thebase casebutmorelikelythan
the failure case 基于与 Ethtec 管理的讨论，我们认为商业规模测试的生产
效率要低于整个 Ethtec 工艺的生产效率，Ethtec 工艺在商业上被认为是不可行的。因此，
我们认为这种情况比基本情况更少，但比失败案例可能性却更大。
Failure case Given the current stageof the project, thelowremainingtechnical 5% (6,530) (6,530)
risks,theongoing ARENA funding applicationand interest from
otherinvestors, this scenario appearstobe reasonablyunlikely。
考虑到项目当前阶段的现状、遗留的技术方面的低风险、阿瑞娜（ARENA）正在审核的融资申请，
以及其他投资者的利益，这个方案似乎不太可能发生。下表格详细描述了每个所选的概率值以及
每个方案评估值的假设。
Probabilityweightedvalue 概率加权值 47,475 56,821
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10.3 Conclusion 结论
Assessedvalue 估定价值($'000)
Low 低 High 高
Probabilityweightedvalue 概率加权值 [47,475] [56,821]
Assessedvalue 估定价值 [50,000] [60,000]
In selectingour assessedvaluation rangewehave considered theprobabilityweightingsabove aswellas:
在选择我们的评估范围时，我们不仅考虑了上述加权值，还考虑了以下几点：
◆ The potentialforfurther developmentand commercialisationoftheDiesehol technology. This technologywouldallow
ethanol tobeblendedwithdiesel fuelinvarying degreesforuseineither existingdiesel enginesor engineswith minor
modifications.Wenote that this couldbe a sizable marketopportunitybut is subject to significantuncertaintyin respectof
whenor if this willbe commercialised andthe modelfor doing so. Ourscenariosabovedonot includeany revenue
fromDiesohol
进一步开发柴油乙醇技术并将其商业化的潜力。该技术可以使乙醇在不同程度上与柴油混合，用于现有的柴油发动机或
小幅改良发动机。我们注意到，这可能是一个相当大的市场基于机遇，但就何时或是否会商业化以及商业户模型方面仍
有存在很不确定性。上述方案不含任何与柴油有关的收入。
◆ To theextenttheProject is successful, Ethtecwould likelybe adesirableacquisition target for a number of large
corporations (suchasenergycompanies,equipment manufacturersor resource owners) that maybe willingtopaya
strategic premiumgiventhe potential synergiesthatmaybeavailable basedonexisting installed capacityand / or
cheaperaccessto feedstock
若项目成功，Ethtec 很可能成为一个令许多大公司（例如能源公司、设备制造商或资源所有者）满意的收购目标，这
些大公司在有潜在的协同效应的情况下，愿意支付战略溢价，而协同效应在现有的装机容量和/或更便宜的原料渠道下，
是可行的。
10.4 Sensitivityanalysis 灵敏度分析
We haveperformeda sensitivityanalysisonthe base case scenario (assuminga midpoint royaltyrate of 6.5%) to provide
anindicationoftheimpact of changes in keyvariables ontheenterprisevalue of thebase case. Theresultsofthe
sensitivityanalysis aredisplayed inthe following chart:
为了说明关键变量变更对基本情况中企业价值的影响，我们针对基本情况进行了敏感性分析（假设专利使用费费率为
6.5%）。敏感性分析结果如下图所示:
SensitivityAnalysis 灵敏度分析 ($'m)
Ethanol plantcapacity 乙醇工厂生产能力(+/- 15ML)
Firstyear of operation 第一年经营(+/- 1 year)
Royaltyrate 专利使用费用(+/-1pp)
Discountrate 贴现率(+/-1pp)
Ethanol price 乙醇价格(+/- 10%)
Inflation rate 通胀率(+/- 0.5pp)
Operating expenses 经营支出 (+/-10%)
Upfrontfees 前期费用(+/- 20%)
PPElevelsas% ofrevenue (30%to50%) PPE 水平是收益的%
Technicalservice fees 技术服务费(+/- 20%)
R&D taxincentive rate 研发税收优惠率(+/- 20%)
Xylitol price 木糖醇价格(+/-20%)
Grantincome 补助收入(+/- 20%)
Ethanolexcise 乙醇特许权(+/- 10%)
Apaceroyalty rateApace 专利使用费费率(+/- 1pp)
Rate of decline inR&D eligible expenditure (+/- 5%)
研发合格支出的下降率(+/- 5%)
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
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11. Valuation Summary 评估总结
Based onthepreceding analysis, wehaveassessed thevalueof an Ethtec shareasfollows:
根据前面的分析，我们评估了 Ethtec 每股股份的价值:
Enterprise value 企业价值
($'000)
Low 低 High 高
Enterprise value 企业价值 50,000 60,000
Surplus assets 盈余资产 - -
Netdebt 净债务 - -
Equityvalue 股权价值 50,000 60,000
Ordinarysharesonissue 发行普通股('000) 16,042 16,042
Assessedvalueperordinaryshare 每股普通股的估定价值 3.12 3.74
Source:Leadenhallanalysis
来源：伦敦肉类市场分析
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Appendix1: Glossary 附件 1 术语表
Term 术语 Description 描述
Asset (Asset-Based) Approach Ageneralwayof determining avalueindicationof abusiness, business
评估(资产)的方法 ownership interest, or securityusing oneor more methods basedonthevalue
ofthe assets net ofliabilities.使用一个或多个基于资产净值负债的方法，确定业
务、业务所有者权益或证券的一种普通方法。
Beta (β) Ameasureofthe systematic,or marketriskofaparticularinvestment.一个系统的测
量，或特定投资的市场风险。
Capital Asset PricingModel(CAPM) Awidelyused modelforestimatingthe cost ofequityofanentity.一种广泛使用的、
资本资产定价模型 估计实体资产成本的模型
Capitalisation of EarningMethod Amethodwithinthe incomeapproachwherebyeconomicbenefitsfor a
资本化的方法 representativesingleperiodare converted tovaluethroughdivision bya
capitalisationrate.收入方法中的一种方法；借此方法，一个代表性的单期
经济效益按资本化率转换为价值。
CompanySpecificRiskPremium(αc) Adjustments to the costof capital toaccountfor differences inrisk between
公司特定风险溢价 the subjectentityand comparableentities usedforestimatingthe cost
ofcapital.资本成本的调整，用来解释不同目标实体和类似实体之间风险的
差异，用于估计资本成本。
Control Premium 控制权溢价 An amount or apercentage bywhichthepro ratavalueof a controlling
interestexceedsthepro ratavalueofanon-controllinginterestinabusiness
enterprise,to reflectthepowerofcontrol.反应控制力量的金额或百分比；借此，
某个企业中的控制利息的比例价值超过了非控制利息的比例价值。
DiscountforLackofMarketability An amount orpercentagedeductedfrom thevalueof anownership interest to
缺乏市场流通性的贴现 reflectthe relative absence of marketability.
反应市场缺乏流通性的、从所有者权益的价值中扣除的金额或百分比。
Discount Rate 贴现率 Arateofreturnused to convert a future monetarysuminto present value.用于将未
来货币和现值转换为现值的收益率。
Discounted CashFlowMethod Amethodwithin theincomeapproach wherebythepresentvalueof future
贴现现金流方法 expected net cash flowsis calculated usinga discount rate.收入方法中的一种方
法；在使用某个贴现率的情况下，借此方法来计算未来预期净现金流的现值。
EBIT Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.支付利息和税收之前的收益
EBITDA Earnings Before Interest,Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation.支付利息和税
收、折旧及摊销之前的收益
Equity 股权 The owner’sinterestinpropertyafter deduction ofall liabilities.在扣除所有负债
后，业主对财产的利息。
EquityMarket RiskPremium(EMRP) The additional returnthatinvestorsexpectfroma diversifiedportfolio of equity
investments overtheexpected returnfrom riskfree assets.投资者期望从多元化的
股票投资组合中获得收益减去预期无风险资产的回报，得到的回报。
MinorityDiscount 少数股权贴现 Adiscount forlackofcontrolapplicable toa minorityinterest.由于对少数股权利益缺
乏控制的折扣。
Net Present Value 净现值 The value, as of a specified date, offuture cashinflows lessall cashoutflows
(including the costof investment)calculatedusing
anappropriatediscountrate.截止某个具体日期的、以适当的贴现率计算的、
比其他一切未来的现金流都少的价值(包括投资成本)。
Nominal 名义 Includinginflation.包括通胀
Risk FreeRate(Rf)无风险贴现率 The rateof return that investorswould requirefor holding ariskfree
investment.投资者持有无风险投资所需的回报率。
SizePremium(αs)规模溢价 The additionalreturnrequired duetothe greater riskassociated with smaller
companies.与较小公司有关的更大风险所要求的额外回报
Valuation Date 估值日期 The specificpoint in timeasofwhichthevaluator's opinionof valueapplies.
估价师对价值的看法被采用的具体的时间点
Weighted AverageCostof Capital The average cost ofcapitalfor abusiness basedonappropriateweightings
(WACC)加权平均资本成本 fordebtandequityfunding.基于适当的负债和股权融资权重的企业的平均资本成本
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Appendix2: StandardsofValue
附件 2：价值标准
Introduction 介绍
The standardof value that wehaveapplied for thisopinionis fair market value. Fair market value isdefinedinthe
International Glossaryof BusinessValuation Termsas:
我们对这个观点所采用价值标准是公平市价。公平市价在国际商业估价术语表中定义如下:
“theprice, expressed intermsofcashequivalents,at which propertywould changehandsbetween ahypothetical willing
andablebuyer and ahypotheticalwilling andable seller, actingat armslength inanopenandunrestricted market,
whenneither isundercompulsiontobuyor sell andwhenbothhave reasonable knowledgeof therelevantfacts.”
“用现金等价物表示的价格，若存在购买意向和有能力的买家，以及酷游售卖意向的买家，当双方都不是强制购买或售
卖且都对相关事实有合理了解之时，那么资产会在一个开放而不受限制的市场上在上述两者间以这样的价格易手。”
There arefour separate standardsof valuethatcanbeappliedwhen preparingavaluation. These standardsare
summarised belowandexplained indetailfurther down.
在准备估值时，有四个单独的价值标准可以应用。将在在下文总结并详细解释这些标准。
Fair value-canbe defineddifferentlydependingon the context of the valuation. TheInternational ValuationsStandards
define fair value as"the estimated priceforthetransferof anassetor liability betweenidentified knowledgeableand
willingparties that reflects therespective interestsofthoseparties." This is somewhatdifferent to thedefinition usedfor
financial reporting, which isdiscussed further below.
公允价值-根据估值不同背景，可以有不同的定义。国际估价标准将公允价值定义为：“一项财产的估算换手价格，或在已
知、事实有清晰了解且有意愿的买卖双方之间、能反映当事人各自利益的责任。”该定义与用于财务报告中的公允价值定
义有些不同，将在下面进一步讨论。
Marketvalue- is generallyusedfortaxationpurposesand referstothe pricenegotiatedin anunrestricted marketbetween a
knowledgeableandwilling buyer and seller inan arm'slengthtransaction.
市价-一般是课税用，并且指的是在不受限制的市场上，对事实有清晰了解且有意愿的买卖双方之间所议定的价格。
Fairmarket value- is asdefinedaboveand isusuallyusedforvaluationswhereneither oftwodefinitionsareaboveare required
tobe applied. We consider thedefinition of fairmarket valueto be consistentwithboththe AASB 13 definitionoffairvalueand
thedefinition of marketvaluefortaxationpurposes.
公平市价-如上文定义的，并通常用于某些估价，也就是当要求不适用以上两种定义的情况下。我们认为：公平市价的定义
是与 AASB13 中定义的公平价值以及税收目的而定义的市价是一致的。
Special Value - is onlyappliedwhen theasset isofparticular valueto a specificpurchaserbecauseof
advantagesofownership that would not beavailable toother buyers.
特别价值-只有当资产对于特定的买方具有特殊价值的时候才适用，而此类买方的购买原因是存在对其它买方不可用的
所有权优势。
FinancialReporting 财务报表
Australian AccountingStandard AASB 13 Fair ValueMeasurement was introducedinSeptember 2011 andappliesto entities
includingthose requiredbytheCorporationsAct2001to preparefinancialreports.Theobjective of the standard was
todefineand setout a singleframework for measuringfair value. The concept offair valueisdefined in AASB 13as follows:
澳大利亚会计标准 AASB 13 公允价值计量于 2011 年 9 月出台，适用于众多实体去编制财务报表，包括《2001 年公司法》
要求的实体。该标准的目标是定义并建立一个衡量公允价值的单一框架。公允价值在 AASB 13 中定义如下:
"Thepricethat would bereceivedto sell anassetorpaidtotransfer a liabilityinan
orderlytransactionbetweenmarketparticipants atthe measurementdate."
“在计量日，在市场参与者之间的一个有序交易中，资产出售或转让债务所支付的价格。”
Setout inthe tablebelowisadditional guidance onthe keyconceptsraisedinthe definitionof Fair Value providedin
AASB13.
下表列出 AASB13 中提供的公允价值定义中所提出的关键概念的附加指导。
Concept 概念 Guidance 指导
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Market Driven 市场驱动 ◆ Hypothetical transaction between willingparties 双方之间的假设交易
◆ Assume participantsare knowledgeable 假定参与者获悉一切相关信息
◆ Neitherpartyanxious / distressed 双方都不焦急/受损
◆ Entity’s abilityorintentionto sellis irrelevant 实体的销售能力或意图是无关紧要的
Orderly Transaction 有序交 ◆ Assumes exposureto the market foraperiodbefore the measurementdateto
易 allowfor marketing activitiesthatarenecessary 假设在测量日期之前，假设在市场
上进行一段时间的展示，以便进行必要的营销活动
◆ Notaforced transaction(ega forcedliquidation ordistress sale)非强制性交易(如强
制清算或紧急出售)
Measurement Date 计量日 ◆ On theday(no smoothingpermitted)当日(不允许平滑)
◆ Reflects prevailing market conditions 反映了当时的市场条件
Exit Price 出手价 ◆ The pricereceivedor paidin cashterms 以现金方式收取或支付的价格
◆ Value ontheday(duringvolatiletimes,increasedvolatilityinvalue)
当天的价值(在波动期间，价值波动加剧)
◆ Before transaction costs 交易成本之前
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AASB13identifiesa number of determinants of value, which we summarisebelow.AASB13 确定了一些价值的决定因素，
我们总结如下：
Determinant 决定因素 Description 描述
Characteristics 特征 ◆ Condition andlocation–include transport costs 条件和位置——包括运输成本
◆ Restrictions on saleor use 对销售或使用的限制
◆ Ignore characteristics ofentityholdingasset:忽略实体持有资产的特征:
- Agreements not to sellasset 不出售资产协议
- Agreements forspecificuse that do not transferwithasset 具有使用约束的非
资产转让协议
Principal Market 主要市场 ◆ Marketwith greatest volume 具有最大体积的市场
◆ Marketentitynormallytransacts in, subjectto contraryevidence 按照相反证据，市场
实体通常会在其中交易
◆ Adjustfortransportbut nottransaction costs 调整运输方式，但不调整交易成本
◆ Ifno principal market,most advantageous market 若不存在主要市场、最有益的市
场
◆ Mostadvantageous market maximises theamountreceived, aftertransport and
transactioncosts 在运输和支付交易费用之后，最有力的市场将收到的金额最大
化，
◆ Some itemsrarelyifever bought / sold (in such casestake a‘hypothetical
marketparticipantperspective’)有些物品很少买或卖（在这些例子中，采
HighestandBest Use 最大最佳用途 ◆ “假设市场参与者的观点”）
◆ Physicallypossible, legallypermissibleand financiallyfeasible 在法律上允许和在经
济上可行
◆ Currentusepresumedtobe highest andbest use 当前使用假定的最大最佳用途
◆ Assets not used(e.g.helddefensively) still valuedbasedon highest andbest 不使用
的资产(如防御)仍然以最高和最好的价值为基础
◆ Assume market participanthas complementaryassets 假设市场参与者拥有互补的
资产
◆ Notrelevanttofinancial assets/liabilities 与金融资产/负债无关
Valuation Techniques 评估技巧 ◆ Specific requirements(unless quotedpricein active market)具体要求(除非活跃市场
中报价)
◆ Marketapproach:市场方法
- Prices / ratios 价格/比率
- Markettransactions 市场交易
- Identical or similarassets/liabilities 相同或相似的资产/负债
◆ Costapproach:成本方法
- Costto replacethe functionoftheasset 取代资产功能的成本
◆ Income approach:收入方法
- Discounted cashflow 贴现现金流
- Option pricing methods 期权定价法
Assumptions 假设 ◆ Use assumptions marketparticipantswoulduse–noneed toidentifyspecific 使用市
场参与者可能使用的假设—不用具体识别
◆ Maximise useof observableinputs 最大限度地使用可观察投入
◆ Premiums anddiscounts:溢价和贴现：
- Exclude blockagediscounts 折价
- Include marketabilitydiscount(if appropriate)包括市场折扣(若合适)
- Include controlpremium (asrelevant)包括控制权溢价(相关)
◆ Bid ask spread:买卖差价
- Use pricewithin spread most representative of fair value 使用最代表公允价
值的价格
- Could use mid-market pricing 可以使用中端市场定价
- More conservative – bidfor assets,askfor liabilities 更保守的-对资产的出
价，要求负债
Transaction price maynot equalFair ◆ Related parties 相关方
Value if thereare ◆ Forced seller 被迫出售方
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交易价可能与公允价值不符（若有） ◆ Unit of account for transaction ≠ unit of account for reporting 交易账户的单位≠报
告中的账户单位
◆ Transaction not in principal market.交易不是在主要市场中发生
Iftransaction at Fair Value 若以公允价 ◆ Unobservable inputs calibrated totransaction price 不可见的投入，按照交易价格
值交易 校准
◆ Future reassessmentsreflect onlychangesinvalue 未来的重新评估仅仅反映价值
的变化
LiabilityandEquity 负债和权益 ◆ Assume transfer(notextinguishment/settlement)假设转让(非偿清/交割)
◆ Considerprofit marginrequired toassumeliability 考虑承担责任所需利润率
◆ Expected cost to anentitytofulfil maynot equal Fair Value 实体要实现的预期成本
可能不等于公允价值
◆ Difference treated as profit /loss 作为利润/损失的差额
◆ Assume credit risk remainsthe same beforeand after transfer 假设信贷风险在转
移之前和之后都是一样的
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AASB13alsoestablishes ahierarchyof inputs todetermineFair Value. Theseinputs,set out in thetablebelowrange from
Level1 toLevel3. Wenote that underthisframework:
◆ Fairvalueisbasedonlowest level of inputsused
◆ Disclosures extendedto non-financialassetsand liabilitiesatfair value
Level Description Examples
Level1 Quoted pricein active market ◆ Marketpricesforidenticalassets
(unadjusted,fullyobservable) ◆ Acompany’s marketcapitalisation
Level2 Directlyor indirectlyobservable, butnot ◆ Interestrates
prices ◆ Creditspreads
◆ Price per square metre
◆ Valuation multiples
Level3 Unobservable inputs ◆ Forecastcashflows
◆ Replacementcostestimates
Valuation forTaxation
The AustralianTaxOffice’s (“ATO”) publication ‘Market ValuationGuide for TaxPurposes’ includesatypical definitionofMarket
Valueusedbybusinessvaluersas:
“thepricethat wouldbenegotiated inanopen andunrestrictedmarketbetweena knowledgeable, willingbut notanxious buyer
anda knowledgeable, willingbutnotanxious seller acting at arm’s-length.”
This definitionhasbeenderivedfrom anumber of commonlawcaseswhichdiscussedtheordinarymeaningof
'marketvalue'andintroduced the concepts of:
◆ Willing but not
anxiouspurchaser
◆ Hypothetical market(regardlessofintentionto
sell)
◆ Parties
beingfullyinformed
◆ Awareness of currentmarket
conditions
SpecialValue
特别价值
Special valueisreferredto astheamount a specificpurchaser iswillingto payinexcessofmarketvalue. Such specific
purchasers maybewillingtopayapremiumover marketvalueasaresult ofpotentialeconomiesof scale, reduction in
competition or other synergies theymayenjoyarisingfromtheacquisition of theasset. Specialvalue isdefinedbythe
International Valuation Standards Councilas:
特殊价值指的是特定购买者愿意支付超过市场价值的金额。由于潜在的规模经济、竞争减少或由于资产兼并而产生的其他
协同效应，这些特定的购买者可能愿意支付高于公平市价的溢价。国际估值标准委员会对特别价值的定义如下。
"An amount thatreflectsparticularattributesofanassetthat are onlyofvalueto a specialpurchaser."
“反映仅对特殊购买者具有价值的资产的特定特定的金额。”
The AustralianTaxOffice ‘Market Valuation Guidefor TaxPurposes’providesadditional guidancefor the concept ofSpecial
Value:
澳大利亚税务办公室“税务市场估价指南”为特别价值的概念给出了补充：
"Itis sometimesargued that anasset has special valueto a particular buyer. Usually thisisnotrelevant inderivinga
marketvalue. Wherethere is clear evidence that the special value is knownoravailabletothewidermarket, this would
bereflected inan objective valuation of theasset."
“人们有时候还在争辩：资产对特定购买者具有特殊价值。通常这与衍生出的市场价值无关。如果有明确的证据表明特
殊价值是已知的，或者可以在更广泛的市场上使用，那么在资产的客观估值上就能反映出特殊价值。”
"However,evenwherethe seller knowsthat you valuetheitemina specialway,thisusuallyonly meansthat theitem will
sell(andthe market valuewillbe)at thehigher end of theusual market valuerange. On theother hand, iftwoor more
hypotheticalpurchaserswere assumedtoexist, bothhavinga special usefor the item, the special value maybe reflected in
themarketvalue."
“然而，即使卖方知道你以一种特殊的方式对该物品估值，这在通常也只是意味着该物品将以通常市场价值区间中的(市
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场价值)较高价格出售。另一方面，假设存在两个或两个以上的购买者，两者把该物品都用于特殊用途，其特殊价值可以
反映在市场价值中。”
Special valuehasnot been consideredinthisvaluation.在这一估值中没有考虑到特殊价值。
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Appendix3:LevelsofValue
附件 3 价值水平
Background 背景
When valuinga companythere arevarious conceptuallevelsofvaluethat canbe determineddepending onthe method
selected andtheassumptions applied. These levelsarehighlighted inthediagram below. It is important tobe awareofthe
levelofvaluedeterminedbyanyvaluation techniqueandto ensurethatit is consistentwiththe subject of the valuation.当对一个
公司评估时，根据所选方法和应用的假设，可以确定不同的价值水平概念。下图重点显示了这些水平。意识到任何估值技
术所决定的价值水平，并确保它与估值目标是一致的，这很重要的。
SpecialValue 特殊价值 DCF(with synergies)
DFC(具有协同效应)
Synergy benefits 协同效益
ControlValue 对照价值 DCF;CFME (takeovermultiples);NetAssets
DCF;CFME（收购倍数；净资产）
Minority discount Control premium
少数股权贴现 对照溢价
LiquidMinorityValue 流动 CFME (tradingmultiples)CFME（交易倍数）
性少数股权价值
Discountforlackofmarketability 缺
乏市场流通性的贴现
IlliquidMinorityvalue 动性 DCF(usingprojecteddividends)
少数股权价值 DCF（使用预期股息）
The keydifferences betweentheselevels of valueare the controlpremium andthediscountfor lackof marketability. The
opposite of a control premiumisa minoritydiscount (also known asadiscountfor lackof control).
这些价值水平之间的关键区别在于控制权溢价以及缺乏市场性的折扣。控制溢价权的对立面是少数折扣(也被称为缺乏控制
折扣)。
Each of theselevels of valueandthe valuationtechniquesforderivingthemarediscussed below. It isalsopossibleto
determine thevalue at anyofthelevels bystartingatadifferent level of value andthenapplying therelevant discounts
and/orpremiumstoobtainthe requiredlevelof value. For example, an illiquid minorityvalue could bedeterminedby using
adiscounted cash flowmethodto determinea control valueandthen deductinganappropriate minoritydiscountand
adiscountfor lack of marketability.
下面将讨论每个价值水平以及产生这些价值水平的评估技术。还可以从不同的值开始，再使用相关的折扣和/或一家来获
得所需的价值水平，从而确定任何的价值水平。比如，通过使用贴现现金流方法确定一个对照值，然后扣除适当的少数
股权贴现折和因缺乏市场性的贴现，来确定非流动性的少数股权的价值。
SpecialValue 特别价值
The highest levelof value isreferredtoas special value. Thisis thevalueof a companytoaparticular purchaser, where
thatpurchaser is abletoenjoybenefitsof owning the companythat arenotavailabletootherpotentialowners. Special value
isnot typicallyobservedasabuyerwouldnot benefit its own shareholdersifit paidthefull amount of specialvalue in
atransaction. However,in contested takeover situations transactionsoften takeplace at a pricethatishigherthanthe stand-
alone controlvalue, meaning thevalueofsome synergiesispaid bythebiddertothetarget's shareholders. The definitions of
Fair Market Value specificallyexcludes anyspecialvalue.
最高水平的价值被称为特殊价值。特殊价值是一个公司给特定购买者的价值，在该价值下，购买者可以享受其它潜在所有
者无法使用的公司利益。当买方在一笔交易中支付了全部的特殊价值后，买方不是自己的股东受益，这样通常不会观察到
特殊价值。然而，在有争议的收购中，交易通常以高于独立控制价值的价格进行，这意味投标者向目标股东支付了一些协
同效应的价值。公平市场价值的定义不包括任何特殊价值。
Special value canbeestimatedusing adiscounted cashflowanalysis. Thisanalysiswouldinclude theexpected synergy
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benefits in the forecast cash flows.
特殊价值可通过使用贴现现金流分析来估算。该分析将包括预期现金流中的预期协同效益。
ControlValue 对照值
The next level of valueis the stand-alone controlvalue. Thisrepresentsthe valueofthewholeofanentity,
withoutconsidering anypotential synergybenefits. Thebenefits of controllingan enterprisearediscussed further in
ControlPremiums. A control value canbedetermined usingoneof the followingapproaches:
下价值的一个水平是独立控制值。这代表了整个实体的价值，没有考虑任何潜在的协同效益。在控制保费方面，还讨
论了控制企业的好处。控制值可以使用下属的一个方法确定:
◆ Discounted cashflow(using free cashflowtothebusiness or toequity)贴现现金流量 (将自由现金流应用到业务或股权中)
◆ Capitalisation ofearnings, using multiplesforcomparabletransactions 资本收益，利用进行可比交易的市盈率
◆ Capitalisation of earnings,using multiplesderived fromfirstprinciples(analogousto adiscounted cashflow) 资本收益，
使用由第一条而来的市盈率(类似于贴现现金流)的资本收益
◆ Anet asset basedapproach 基于净资产的方法
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Itispossible that transactionsinvolving comparableentities include someelementof payment forsynergies. Thususing
multiples determinedbythis method mayprovideavaluation that ishigherthana stand-alone controlvalue. It is therefore
necessaryto consider the natureof the buyer and thedetailsofthetransaction beforeaccepting a comparable transaction
asevidence of a controlvalue.
涉及可比交易的实体很可能包含一些协同效应的因素。因此，使用该方法所确定的倍数可以提供高于独立控制值的估值。
Liquid Minority Value 流动的少数股权价值
This isthe mostfrequentlyobservedlevel of valueas it is consistentwith market trading onpublicexchanges. It canbe
determined directlybytheapplication of the capitalisationof maintainable earnings, where the multiple usedis determined
basedon marketpricesof comparable companies.
这是最常见的价值水平，因为就在公开交易而言，它与市场交易是一致的。它可由可维护性收益的资本化直接决定，其中
使用的倍数是根据可比公司的市价决定的。
Illiquid MinorityValue 非流动的少数股权价值
This representsa minorityholdingin aprivate company. Sucha stake can bedifficult to sellandoften offerslittleability to
influencetheoperations of thebusiness. Thislevel of valueis mostlycommonlyestimated byreferenceto ahigher level of
valueand theapplicationofdiscounts. However,it canbe estimateddirectlyeitherbyconsidering comparable transactions
involving similar assets or theapplication of adiscounted cash flowanalysisbased on expected cashflows to the
minorityowner. In some casesthe shareholders'agreementcanrestrict the transfer and sale of shares tothird parties
whichincreases theapplicablediscount.
这代表了一家私人公司的少数股权。这样的股份很难出售，而且通常对业务的影响乏力。通常通过参考较高的价值水平以
及所用的折扣来估计这种价值水平。但是，它也可通过考虑到类似交易所涉及的类似资产，或基于少数股东预期现金流的
贴现现金流分析来直接估算。在某些情况下，股东协议可限制将股份转让或出售给第三方，因为这会增加了可用的折扣。
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Appendix4:Valuation Approaches
附件 4 估值方法
Introduction 介绍
In preparingthisreport we have considered severalvaluationapproaches and methods. These approachesand methods are
consistentwith:
在编写本报告时，我们考虑了几种评估方法。这些方法与以下一致:
◆ Marketpractice
市价
◆ The methodsrecommendedbythe AustralianSecurities andInvestmentsCommission inRegulatory Guide111
contentofexpertreports
澳大利亚证券和投资委员会在监管指南 111 的专家报告中所建议的方法
◆ The International Valuation Standards
国际评估准则
◆ The InternationalGlossaryof Business ValuationTerms
国际商业估价术语表
Avaluationapproachis ageneralwayof determiningan estimateof valueofabusiness, business ownershipinterest,securityor
intangibleasset. Withineach valuationapproachthere areanumberof specificvaluation methods, whichare specific waysto
determinean estimateofvalue.
估值方法是确定企业价值、企业所有者权益、证券或无形资产的一般估值方法。在每种估值方法中，都有一些具体的估值方法，
这些方法是确定估值的具体方法。
There arethreegeneral valuationapproachesasfollows:评估方法主要有 3 个，如下：
Income Approach 收入方法
Provides anindicationofvaluebyconvertingfuture cashflowstoa single capitalvalue. Examplesof anincome approach are:
通过将未来的现金流转换为单一的资本值，从而提供的价值指示。收入方法的示例如下:
◆ The discounted cash flowmethod
现金流量贴现法
◆ The capitalisationofearnings method(using a multiplederived fromfirst principles)
收益法的资本化(使用来自第一个原则的倍数)
Market Approach 市场方法
Provides anindicationofvaluebycomparing the subject assetwithidenticalor similarassetsfor which priceinformation is
available. The main examplesof the marketapproachare:
通过将资产与能使价格信息可用给的相同或类似资产进行比较，从而提供的价值指示。
◆ The guidelinepublic companymethod 指导上市公司的方法
◆ The merger andacquisition method 并购方法
◆ Analysis of recenttrading 近期交易分析
◆ Industryrules of thumb 行业经验法则
The first two methodsare anapplication of the capitalisationofearnings method.
前两种方法是收益法资本化的一个应用。
Asset/CostApproach 资产/成本方法
Provides anindicationof value usingtheeconomicprinciple that abuyer will payno moreforanasset thanthe cost to obtain
anassetof equal utility, whetherbypurchase or construction.
在获得（无论是购买还是建设）同等效用的资产时，买方将不再为资产支付超出成本的费用，基于这一经济原理所提供的一个
价值指导。
Discounted Cash FlowMethod
现金流贴现
Description
描述
Ofthevarious methodsnoted above, the discounted cash flowmethodhas the strongesttheoretical standing. It is also
widelyusedinpractice bycorporateacquirersand companyanalysts.The discounted cashflowmethod estimatesthe value of
abusiness bydiscountingexpectedfuture cashflowsto apresent valueusing anappropriatediscount rate. A discounted
cash flowvaluationrequires:
在上面提到的各种方法中，理论上现金流贴现法的地位最高。该方法也被企业收购和公司分析师广泛应用于实践中。贴现
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现金流法，通过将预期的未来现金流贴现给采用了合适贴现率的当前价值，从而估算企业价值。贴现现金流估值要求:
◆ Aforecastof expected future cash flows 预期未来现金流的预
测
◆ An appropriatediscountrate 恰当的贴现率
◆ An estimateofterminalvalue 终值的估计
Itisnecessaryto project cashflowsovera suitableperiod of time(generallyregarded asbeingatleast fiveyears) to arrive at
thenetcashflowin eachperiod. For afinite lifeproject orasset thiswouldneed tobedone for thelife of the project. This
canbea difficult exerciserequiring a significant numberof assumptions suchasrevenue growth, future margins,capital
expenditurerequirements,working capital movements andtaxation.
很有必要计划一段适当的时间内(一般认为是至少 5 年)的现金流，以实现净现金流。对于有限生命周期的项目或资产，这需
要在项目的生命周期内完成。这可能是一项苦难的活动，需要大量的假设，比如收入增长、未来利润率、资本支出要求、
营运资本的流动以及税收。
The discount rateused representstherisk of achievingthe projectedfuture cash flowsandthe timevalueofmoney. The
projected future cash flowsarethen valuedin current dayterms usingthe discount rate selected.
贴现率常用来表示实现预期未来现金流和货币时间价值的风险。然后基于当天的值，用所选的贴现率计算未来现金流。
Aterminalvaluereflects thevalueofcashflowsthatwillarisebeyond theexplicit forecastperiod. This is commonly estimated
usingeithera constantgrowthassumptionora multiple of earnings(as describedundercapitalisationof future maintainable
earningsbelow). Thisterminalvalue isthendiscounted to current daytermsandadded tothenet presentvalue of the forecast
cash flowstoprovide anestimate for theoverall valueofthebusiness.
终值反映了超出明确预测周期的现金流量的价值。终值通常是用一个持续增长假设或多倍收益来估值的(正如下文未来可维护
性收益所描述的那样)。然后将此终值贴现到当天值，并添加给预测现金流的净现值，从评估业务的总体值。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
The discounted cash flowmethodis often sensitiveto anumber ofkeyassumptions suchasrevenue growth, future
margins,capitalinvestment,terminalgrowth andthe discount rate. Alloftheseassumptions canbe highlysubjective
sometimes leadingtoa valuation conclusionpresented asarange that istoo widetobeuseful.
贴现现金流法通常对一些关键假设十分敏感，比如：收入增长，未来利润率，资本投资，终端增长和贴现率。所有这些
假设都极可能高度主观，有时会导致估价结论范围太广泛为无法使用。
Use of thediscounted cash flowmethod 贴现现金流方法的应用
Adiscounted cashflowapproach isusuallypreferredwhenvaluing:
贴现现金流方法通常是优先考虑的，当时评估以下:
◆ Earlystage companiesor projects
创业公司或早期项目；
◆ Limited lifeassets suchas a mineor toll concession
有限生命周期的项目，如矿山或过租地
◆ Companies where significantgrowthisexpected infuture cashflows
预测未来现金流显著增长的公司
◆ Projects withvolatile earnings
收益波动的项目
Itmayalsobe preferredif othermethodsarenotsuitable, for example if thereis alackofreliableevidenceto support a capitalisation
of future maintainableearnings approach. However, itmaynotbeappropriate if:
当其它方法不适用的时候，通常也可选择该方法，比如在缺乏可靠的证据来支持未来可维护性收益资本化的方法时，就可使用
贴现现金流方法。
◆ Reliable forecastsof cash flowarenotavailable and cannotbedetermined
现金流的可靠预测是没用的、无法确定的；
◆ There isaninadequatereturn oninvestment, inwhich case ahigher value maybe realisedbyliquidatingtheassets
than through continuing thebusiness
存在投资回报不足的情况；这种情况下，清算资产而非继续经营的方式实现更高的价值。
Adiscounted cashflowapproachisnotrecommendedwhenassetsare expectedtoearn belowthe costof capital. Also,when
valuinga minorityinterestina company, care needstobetaken if adiscounted cash flowbasedonearnings for the whole
businessis prepared, asthe holder of a minorityinterest would not haveaccess to, orcontrolof, those cashflows.
当资产预期收益低于资本成本时，不建议采用贴现现金流方法。此外当评估一家公司的少数股权时，如果基于整个业务收
益的贴现现金流已经到位，但少数权益持有者无法获得或控制这些现金流，则需要特别谨慎。
Capitalisation ofEarnings Method 收益资本化法
Description 描述
The capitalisationofearnings methodis a commonlyused valuation methodologythat involvesdetermining afuture
maintainable earningsfigure for abusiness and multiplyingthatfigurebyanappropriate capitalisation multiple. This
methodologyisgenerallyconsidered a short formof adiscounted cash flow, wherea single representativeearnings figure is
capitalised,rather thana streamofindividual cashflows beingdiscounted. The capitalisation of earnings
methodologyinvolves the determinationof:
收益资本化法是一种常用的估值方法，包括确定企业未来可维护性盈利的数据，并将该数字乘以一个适当的资本化倍数。
这种方法常被认为是贴现现金流的一种短期形式，在这种情况下，单一的有代表性的盈利数据是资本化的，而不是一股被
贴现的个人现金流。收益方法的资本化包括确定:
◆ Aleveloffuture maintainableearnings
未来可维持收入的水平
◆ An appropriate capitalisation rateormultiple
一个恰当的资本额或倍数
Future maintainable earnings 未来可维护的收益
Anyof thefollowing measuresof earnings can beused:
下述任何一项收入指标都可以被使用:
Revenue - mostlyusedforcompaniesthat donot make apositiveEBITDA orasa cross-checkofavaluation conclusion derived
usinganothermethod.
收益-主要用于不构成积极 EBITDA 的公司，或是使用了另一种方法估从而的到估值结论的反复核对的公司。
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EBITDA- mostappropriatewheredepreciation distortsearnings, forexampleina companythathasa
significantlevelofdepreciating assets but little ongoing capitalexpenditure requirement.
EBITDA–当贬值（折旧）扭曲收益时最合适的方法，比如对于一个具有显著折旧资产、却无持续资本支出需求的公司。
EBITA- in most casesEBITAwillbe more reliablethanEBITDAasit takes account ofthe capitalintensityof the business.
EBITA- EBITA 在大多数情况下要比 EBITDA 更可靠，因为它考虑了企业的资本密集度。
EBIT- whilst commonlyusedinpractice,multiplesof EBITA are usuallymorereliable astheyremovethe impact ofamortisation
whichis anon-cash accountingentrythat doesnotreflect a needforfuture capital investment (unlike depreciation).
EBIT– EBITA 倍数方法虽然实践中常常使用，但它通常更可靠，因为它没有分歧偿还的影响，而分歧偿还是一个非现金的
会计入口，不反映未来资本投资的需求(不像折旧)。
NPAT- relevant in valuingbusinesseswhereinterestisa majorpart of theoverall earningsof thegroup (e.g. financial services
businesses suchasbanks).
NPAT-在利益是集团整体盈利的主要部分(如银行等金融服务业务)的价值方面的相关。
Multiples of EBITDA, EBITAandEBITare commonlyusedtovalue wholebusinessesfor acquisition purposeswhere gearing
isin the control of theacquirer. In contrast, NPAT(or P/E) multiples areoftenused for valuing minorityinterests in a
companyas theinvestor hasno controlover thelevel of debt.
EBITDA、EBITA 和 EBIT 的倍数通常被用来进行收购为目的的整个企业评估，即杠杆在收购方的控制下。相比之下，
NPAT(或 P / E)倍数通常被用来评估公司的少数股权，因为投资者对债务水平是无法控制的。
Anormalisedlevelof maintainable earningsneeds tobe determinedfor the selected earnings measure.Thisexcludes the
impact of anygainsor lossesthatarenot expected torecur andallows for thefull year impact of anychanges(such as
acquisitionsor disposals) made part waythrougha givenfinancialyear.
为了确定所选的收益指标，则需要确定可维护性收益的正常水平。这排除了未预料的、再次发生的任何收益或损失带来的
影响，并考虑到在给定财年还未结束时，存在任何对全年产生影响的变化(如收购或资产处置)。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Selectedmultiple 选择的倍数
The multiple selected toapplyto maintainable earningsreflects expectationsaboutfuturegrowth,riskand thetimevalue
ofmoneyallwrappedupin a singlenumber. Multiples can bederivedfromthree main sources.
所选的、适用于可维护性收益的倍数，反映了对未来增长、风险和金钱的时间价值的预期。倍数源自于三个主要来源。
◆ Using theguideline public companymethod,market multiplesare derivedfromthe
tradingpricesofstocksofcompanies that areengagedin the sameor similar lines of businessandthat are
activelytradedona freeandopen market,suchas the ASX
采用指导上市公司的方法，市场倍数来源于从事相同或类似业务的公司股票的交易价格，并在自由开放的市场上交易，
比如 ASX。
◆ The merger and acquisition methodis a methodwherebymultiplesare derivedfromtransactions of significant interests
incompaniesengagedin the sameor similarlines of business.In Australiathisis oftenreferredtoas the comparable
transactionmethodology
合并和收购方法是指通过从事相同或类似业务的公司的重大利益交易中衍生出的倍数而得到的一种方法。在澳大利亚，这通
常指的是类似的交易方法。
◆ Itisalso possibletobuild a multiplefrom firstprinciplesbased onanappropriate discount rateand growthexpectations
根据适当的贴现率和增长预期，还能从第一原则中生成一个倍数。
Itisimportanttouse the same earningsperiods(historical,current orforecast) forcalculating comparable multiples, as the
periodusedfordeterminingfuture maintainable earnings. Forexample, a multiple basedonhistorical
earningsofcomparable companies should beappliedto historicalearningsofthe subject ofthevaluationand
nottoforecastearnings.
对于计算具有可比性的倍数来说，使用相同的收益周期(历史、当前或预测)是很重要的，因为这些周期是用来确定未来可
维护性收益的。例如，一个基于可比公司的历史收益的倍数，应被应用于估值主体的历史收益，而不是用来预测收益。
Use of the capitalisation ofearningsmethod 收益资本化方法的使用
The capitalisationof earnings methodiswidelyusedinpractice. It is particularlyappropriateforvaluing companieswitha
relativelystablehistorical earningspatternwhich isexpectedto continue. The methodisless appropriatefor valuing companies or
assets if:
收益资本化方法在实践中应用广泛。尤为适用于估值相对稳定、具有相对稳定的历史收益模式的企业，同时预计这种模式还将
持续下去。这种方法在评估公司或资产时不太合适，若：
◆ There areno(or veryfew) suitablelisted companyor transactionbenchmarksfor comparison
不存在(或很少)合适的上市公司或交易基准用于比较
◆ The asset hasa limitedlife
资产的寿命有限
◆ Future earningsor cash flowsareexpectedto bevolatile
预计未来收益或现金流会存在波动
◆ There arenegativeearnings or theearningsofabusinessare insufficient to justifya valueexceedingtheunderlying
netassets
存在负面收益，或企业的收益不足以证明超过潜在净资产的价值。
◆ Working capitalrequirements arenot expected toremain stable
期望经营资本要求不是一成不变的
AssetorCostApproach 资产或成本方法
The asset approachto valueisbased ontheassumptionthatthe current value of allassets (tangibleandintangible) less the
current value of theliabilities shouldequate tothe currentvalueoftheentity. Specificallyan asset approachis defined
asageneral wayof determininga valueindicationofabusiness, businessownership interest,or securityusing one or more
methodsbased onthevalueoftheassetsnet ofliabilities. Whereasa cost approachisdefined asageneral wayof determininga
valueindicationofanindividualassetbyquantifyingthe amount of moneyrequiredtoreplacethe future service capabilityofthat
asset.
用于估值的资产方法是基于一种假设:即所有（有形的和无形）资产的现值减去负债现值应等于实体的现值。具体地来说，
资产方法被定义为：通过使用基于资产净值负债的一种或多种方法，确定业务、业务所有权或安全性价值指标的一种普通
方法。而成本方法被定义为：一种确定单个资产的价值指标的一般方法，是通过量化替换该资产未来服务功能所需的货币
数量来实现的。
Description 描述
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The asset basedvaluation methodsestimatethe valueof a companybasedon therealisablevalue of itsnetassets, less its
liabilities. There areanumberof asset based methodsincluding:
基于资产的估值方法，是基于某个公司净资产的可变现价值来对该公司估值的，并非基于其负债。有许多基于资产的方估
值法，包括:
◆ Orderlyrealization 有序实现
◆ Forced liquidation 被迫清算
◆ Netassetsonagoing concernbasis 持续经营基础上的资产净值
◆ Replacementcost 重置成本
◆ Reproduction cost 再生产成本
The orderlyrealisation of assets methodestimatesFairMarket Value bydeterminingthe amount thatwouldbedistributed to
shareholders, afterpayment ofallliabilities includingrealisation costsand taxation charges that arise,assumingthe
companyiswoundupin anorderlymanner. Theforcedliquidation methodis similar totheorderlyrealisationof assets method
except theliquidation methodassumesthe assetsare sold ina shortertimeframe. Since winduporliquidationofthe
companymaynot be contemplated, these methodsintheirstrictest form maynotnecessarilybe appropriate. Thenetassets
onagoing concernbasis method estimatestheFairMarket Valuesofthenet assetsofa companybutdoesnottake
accountofrealisation costs.
假设某个公司以有序的方式结束，有序实现的资产评估方法是在支付了所有的债务（包括实现成本以及产生的税费）之后，
通过确定可能分配给股东的金额，来估计公平市值。强制清算方法与资产法的有序变现相似，但是清算方法是假设资产在较
短的时间内出售的。由于公司破产或清算是不可预期的，因此在各自最严格的形式下，这些方法都可能不一定合适。持续经
营基础之上的资产净值估计方法，是对某个公司的净资产的公平市值进行估算，但不考虑实现成本。
The asset / costapproachisgenerallyused whenthevalueofthebusiness’assetsexceeds thepresentvalueofthe cash flows
expectedtobe derivedfromthe ongoingbusinessoperations,or thenature of thebusinessis toholdorinvest in assets.
Itisimportant to notethat the asset approach maystillbe therelevant approach evenifanasset is makinga profit.If anassetis
making lessthanan economicrateofreturnandthere isnorealistic prospect of itmakingan economic returnin theforeseeable
future, an asset/ costapproachwill bethe most appropriate method.
当业务资产的价值超过来自持续业务经营的现金流的现值，或者业务性质是持有该资产或对其投资时，一般会使用资产/成
本方法。值得注意的是，即使资产正在盈利，资产方法仍可能是相关的方法。如果一项资产的回报率低于经济回报率，并
且在可预见的未来，该资产没有实现经济回报的现实前景，那么资产/成本方法将是最合适的方法。
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Useof asset based methods 基于资产的方法的应用
An asset-basedapproachis a suitablevaluation methodwhen:
基于资产的方法是一种合适的估值方法，当:
◆ An enterpriseisloss makingandis not expectedto becomeprofitablein theforeseeablefuture 企业市场正在缩小，并且预
期未来不会收益
◆ Assets areemployed profitablybutearnlessthan the costof capital 资产的使用是有利可图的，但比资本成本赚取的少
◆ Asignificant portion of the company's assetsare composed of liquidassets or other investments (suchas
marketable securities and realestate investments)公司资产的很大一部分是由流动资产或其他投资(如有价证券和房地
产投资)组成的
◆ Itisrelativelyeasyto enter theindustry(e.g. small machine shops andretailestablishments)进入该行业相对比较容易(如
小型机械商店和零售公司)
Assetbased methods arenotappropriateif:
基于资产的方法不适用于以下，若:
◆ The ownershipinterest being valuedisnota controllinginterest,hasnoabilityto causethe saleofthe company’s
assets andthe major holders arenot planningto sellthe company’sassets
被评估的所有权益不是可控制权益，无法造成公司资产的出售，同时主要股东不打算出售公司的资产。
◆ Abusinesshas(orisexpectedto have) anadequate returnon capital,suchthat the valueof its futureincome stream
exceeds thevalue of itsassets 企业(或预计将拥有)有充足的资本回报，从而使得其未来收入流的价值超过其资产价值
Analysis ofRecentTrading 近期交易分析
The most recent sharetrading historyprovidesevidenceoftheFair Market Value of the sharesin a companywherethey are
publiclytradedinan informedandliquid market.There shouldalsobe some similaritybetweenthe size of theparcel
ofsharesbeingvaluedandthose beingtraded. Wherea company’s sharesarepubliclytraded thenan analysisof recenttrading
prices should be considered, atleast asa cross-checktoothervaluation methods.
最新的股票交易为公司这部分股票的公允市值提供了证明，而这部分股票是在信息灵通的市场上公开交易的。正被估值的
股票的规模与这些交易的股票规模之间应该存有某种相似性。若一家公司的股票被公开交易，那么就应该考虑分析近期的
交易价格，至少将这种分析和其它估值方法一起进行交叉核对。
IndustrySpecific Rules ofThumb 行业特有经验法则
Industryspecificrules of thumbare usedin certain industries. These methodstypicallyinvolve a multipleofanoperating figure
suchas eyeballsfor internetbusinesses, numbersofbedsfor hotels etc. These methodsaretypicallyfairlycrude and
thereforeusuallyonlyappropriateasa cross-checktoa valuationdeterminedusing analternative method.
行业特有经验法则被用于某些特定行业。这些方法通常涉及某个经营数值的倍数，如互联网企业的访客、酒店的床位数量
等。这些方法通常相当粗糙，因此通常只适于作为另一种估值方法的替代方法，进行交叉检查。
Selecting an Appropriate Valuation Approach and Method 选择合适的估值方法和方法
The choiceof anappropriate valuationapproachand methodologyis subjective, anddepends on severalfactors suchas
whethera methodologyisprescribed,the company’shistoricaland projectedfinancial performance, the stageofmaturity,the
natureofthe company’s operationsand theavailabilityofinformation. The selection of an appropriatevaluation method
shouldbeguided bytheactual practicesadoptedbypotential acquirersof the companyinvolvedandthe informationavailable.
选择合适的估值方法和方法是主观的，取决于许多因素，例如是否存在规定的方法，公司的历史和预期的财务业绩，成熟度
的阶段、公司的业务性质以及信息的可用性。在选择适当的估值方法是，应基于公司潜在收购者所采取的实际操作和所提供
的信息。
The followingflowchart provides guidanceon selecting theappropriate valuation method:
在选择合适的估值方法时，下面的流程图提供一些指导:
Y
Y
N
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Have there been recenttransaction in theentity's shares / units?实体的股票/单位最近有交易吗?
Analysis of share trading 股票交易分析
Does it make anadequate return oncapital?它对资本是否有足够的回报？
Is it a finite life asset, orare earnings highlyvariable?它是一个有限生命资产？还是高收益变量?
Is it expected to make anadequate return in thenear future?在不久的将来，它会有足够的回报吗?
Discounted cash flow 贴现现金流量
Are there suitablecomparablebenchmarks?是否有合适的可比基准?
Discounted cash flow 贴现现金流量
Net assets 净资产
Capitalisation of earningsor discounted cash flow 收益或贴现现金流的资本化
Discounted cash flow 贴现现金流量
Source:Leadenhallanalysis
来源：Leadenhall 分析
Selecting anappropriate valuation methodologydependsonthe natureofabusinessand itsprofitability.
Generally,Leadenhall preferstousea discounted cashflowmethod asit allowseach of the keyvaluation
driverstobeanalysed independentlyand considerationgiven astohowtheyinteract. Whatever methodis usedit is important
touse a cross check to theextentpossible.
合适的估值方法的选择，取决于企业的性质和盈利能力。通常，Leadenhall 倾向于使用贴现现金流的方法，因为该方法允
许对每个关键估值驱动因素进行独立分析，并考虑它们之间的相互作用。无论采用何种方法，在可能的范围最好使用反复
检查，这点很重要。
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Appendix5:EthanolPlantProjections
附件 5：乙醇工厂的预测
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Capacityusage 产能使用 % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Production volume 产量 ML - - - - - 30 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Ethanolprice (inc. inflation) 乙醇价格 1.1520 1.1750 1.1985 1.2225 1.2470 1.2719 1.2973 1.3233 1.3498 1.3767 1.4043 1.4324 1.4610 1.4902 1.5200 1.5504 1.5814 1.6131 1.6453 1.6782 1.7118 1.7460 1.7810 1.8166 1.8529 1.8900 1.9278
（含通胀）$/L
GST (0.1068) (0.1090) (0.1111) (0.1134) (0.1156) (0.1179) (0.1203) (0.1227) (0.1252) (0.1277) (0.1302) (0.1328) (0.1355) (0.1382) (0.1409) (0.1438) (0.1466) (0.1496) (0.1526) (0.1556) (0.1587) (0.1619) (0.1651) (0.1684) (0.1718) (0.1753)
Ethanolexcise 乙醇消费税 (0.0264) (0.0538) (0.0823) (0.1119) (0.1427) (0.1456) (0.1485) (0.1514) (0.1545) (0.1576) (0.1607) (0.1639) (0.1672) (0.1706) (0.1740) (0.1774) (0.1810) (0.1846) (0.1883) (0.1921) (0.1959) (0.1998) (0.2038) (0.2079) (0.2121) (0.2163)
Adjustedprice 调整后价格 1.0419 1.0358 1.0291 1.0217 1.0136 1.0338 1.0545 1.0756 1.0971 1.1191 1.1414 1.1643 1.1875 1.2113 1.2355 1.2602 1.2854 1.3111 1.3374 1.3641 1.3914 1.4192 1.4476 1.4766 1.5061 1.5362
Ethanolrevenue 乙醇带来的收益 - - - - - 31,015 63,271 64,536 65,827 67,143 68,486 69,856 71,253 72,678 74,132 75,614 77,126 78,669 80,242 81,847 83,484 85,154 86,857 88,594 90,366 92,173
Costofsales 销售成本 - - - - - (6,033) (12,307) (12,553) (12,805) (13,061) (13,322) (13,588) (13,860) (14,137) (14,420) (14,708) (15,003) (15,303) (15,609) (15,921) (16,239) (16,564) (16,895) (17,233) (17,578) (17,929)
Gross profit 毛利 - - - - - 24,982 50,963 51,982 53,022 54,083 55,164 56,267 57,393 58,541 59,711 60,906 62,124 63,366 64,634 65,926 67,245 68,590 69,962 71,361 72,788 74,244
Grossmargin % 毛利率 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5%
Operating expenses 经营成本(@$0.34 - - - - - (11,487) (23,433) (23,902) (24,380) (24,867) (25,365) (25,872) (26,390) (26,917) (27,456) (28,005) (28,565) (29,136) (29,719) (30,313) (30,920) (31,538) (32,169) (32,812) (33,468) (34,138)
/L)
Depreciation 折旧 - - - - - (7,500) (7,542) (7,585) (7,629) (7,674) (7,720) (7,766) (7,814) (7,862) (7,912) (7,962) (8,014) (8,066) (8,120) (8,467) (8,951) (9,460) (9,996) (10,559) (11,152) (4,276)
Totaloverheads 总营业费 - - - - - (18,987) (30,975) (31,487) (32,009) (32,542) (33,085) (33,639) (34,204) (34,780) (35,368) (35,967) (36,579) (37,203) (37,839) (38,781) (39,871) (40,998) (42,164) (43,371) (44,621) (38,414)
EBIT - - - - - 5,995 19,988 20,495 21,013 21,541 22,080 22,629 23,189 23,761 24,344 24,938 25,545 26,164 26,795 27,145 27,374 27,592 27,797 27,989 28,167 35,830
EBITmargin EBIT 利润 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 31.6% 31.8% 31.9% 32.1% 32.2% 32.4% 32.5% 32.7% 32.8% 33.0% 33.1% 33.3% 33.4% 33.2% 32.8% 32.4% 32.0% 31.6% 31.2% 38.9%
Interestexpense 利息支出 - - - (3,150) (6,300) (6,300) (6,146) (5,982) (5,806) (5,618) (5,416) (5,201) (4,970) (4,723) (4,459) (4,177) (3,874) (3,551) (3,205) (2,835) (2,438) (2,014) (1,561) (1,075) (556) -
Profitbefore tax 税前利润 - - - (3,150) (6,300) (305) 13,841 14,513 15,207 15,923 16,663 17,428 18,219 19,038 19,885 20,762 21,671 22,613 23,590 24,311 24,936 25,577 26,237 26,914 27,611 35,830
Notionaltax 概念税收 - - - - - - (1,226) (4,354) (4,562) (4,777) (4,999) (5,228) (5,466) (5,711) (5,965) (6,229) (6,501) (6,784) (7,077) (7,293) (7,481) (7,673) (7,871) (8,074) (8,283) (10,749)
Netprofitafter tax 税后净利润 - - - (3,150) (6,300) (305) 12,615 10,159 10,645 11,146 11,664 12,200 12,753 13,326 13,919 14,533 15,169 15,829 16,513 17,018 17,455 17,904 18,366 18,840 19,328 25,081
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Add:
附加
- - - 3,150 6,300 6,300 6,146 5,982 5,806 5,618 5,416 5,201 4,970 4,723 4,459 4,177 3,874 3,551 3,205 2,835 2,438 2,014 1,561 1,075 556 -
Interestexpense 利息支出
- - - - - 5,995 18,762 16,141 16,451 16,764 17,081 17,400 17,724 18,050 18,378 18,710 19,044 19,380 19,718 19,852 19,893 19,919 19,926 19,915 19,884 25,081
Netoperatingprofitafter tax 税后净营业利润 - - - - - 7,500 7,542 7,585 7,629 7,674 7,720 7,766 7,814 7,862 7,912 7,962 8,014 8,066 8,120 8,467 8,951 9,460 9,996 10,559 11,152 4,276
Depreciation and amortisation 折旧和摊销 - - - (75,000) (75,000) (845) (862) (879) (896) (914) (933) (951) (970) (990) (1,009) (1,030) (1,050) (1,071) (6,950) (9,671) (10,179) (10,712) (11,273) (11,862) (12,481) (5,632)
- - - 41,850 38,700 (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) (8,495) -
Capitalinvestment 资本投资
- - - (33,150) (36,300) 4,155 16,947 14,352 14,688 15,028 15,372 15,720 16,072 16,427 16,786 17,147 17,512 17,880 12,392 10,153 10,170 10,171 10,154 10,117 10,060 23,725
Financing and repayments 融资和还款
Free cashflows 自由现金流量
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Appendix6:Ethanol/XylitolMixed PlantProjections
附件 6 乙醇/木糖醇混合工厂的预测
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Capacityusage 产能使用 % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Ethanol 乙醇
Production volume 产量 ML - - - - - 18 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
Ethanolprice (inc. inflation) 乙醇价格（含通胀）$/L 1.1750 1.1985 1.2225 1.2470 1.2719 1.2973 1.3233 1.3498 1.3767 1.4043 1.4324 1.4610 1.4902 1.5200 1.5504 1.5814 1.6131 1.6453 1.6782 1.7118 1.7460 1.7810 1.8166 1.8529 1.8900 1.9278
GST $/L (0.1068) (0.1090) (0.1111) (0.1134) (0.1156) (0.1179) (0.1203) (0.1227) (0.1252) (0.1277) (0.1302) (0.1328) (0.1355) (0.1382) (0.1409) (0.1438) (0.1466) (0.1496) (0.1526) (0.1556) (0.1587) (0.1619) (0.1651) (0.1684) (0.1718) (0.1753)
Ethanolexcise 乙醇消费税 $/L (0.0264) (0.0538) (0.0823) (0.1119) (0.1427) (0.1456) (0.1485) (0.1514) (0.1545) (0.1576) (0.1607) (0.1639) (0.1672) (0.1706) (0.1740) (0.1774) (0.1810) (0.1846) (0.1883) (0.1921) (0.1959) (0.1998) (0.2038) (0.2079) (0.2121) (0.2163)
Adjustedprice 调整后价格 $/L 1.0419 1.0358 1.0291 1.0217 1.0136 1.0338 1.0545 1.0756 1.0971 1.1191 1.1414 1.1643 1.1875 1.2113 1.2355 1.2602 1.2854 1.3111 1.3374 1.3641 1.3914 1.4192 1.4476 1.4766 1.5061 1.5362
Ethanolrevenue 乙醇带来的收益 - - - - - 18,609 37,962 38,722 39,496 40,286 41,092 41,913 42,752 43,607 44,479 45,368 46,276 47,201 48,145 49,108 50,090 51,092 52,114 53,156 54,220 55,304
Xylitol 木糖醇
Production volume 产量 Tonnes - - - - - 9,429 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857 18,857
Xylitolprice (inc. inflation)木 $/kg 2.550 2.601 2.653 2.706 2.760 2.815 2.872 2.929 2.988 3.047 3.108 3.171 3.234 3.299 3.365 3.432 3.501 3.571 3.642 3.715 3.789 3.865 3.942 4.021 4.102 4.184
糖醇价格（含通胀）
Xylitolrevenue 木糖醇带来的收益 - - - - - 26,545 54,152 55,235 56,340 57,467 58,616 59,789 60,984 62,204 63,448 64,717 66,011 67,332 68,678 70,052 71,453 72,882 74,340 75,826 77,343 78,890
Totalrevenue 总收益 - - - - - 45,154 92,115 93,957 95,836 97,753 99,708 101,702 103,736 105,811 107,927 110,086 112,287 114,533 116,824 119,160 121,543 123,974 126,454 128,983 131,562 134,194
Costofsales 销售成本 - - - - - (6,033) (12,307) (12,553) (12,805) (13,061) (13,322) (13,588) (13,860) (14,137) (14,420) (14,708) (15,003) (15,303) (15,609) (15,921) (16,239) (16,564) (16,895) (17,233) (17,578) (17,929)
Gross profit 毛利 - - - - - 39,121 79,807 81,403 83,032 84,692 86,386 88,114 89,876 91,673 93,507 95,377 97,285 99,230 101,215 103,239 105,304 107,410 109,558 111,749 113,984 116,264
Grossmargin %毛利率 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6% 86.6%
Operating expenses 经营支出
-Ethanol 乙醇(@A$0.34 /L) - - - - - (6,892) (14,060) (14,341) (14,628) (14,920) (15,219) (15,523) (15,834) (16,150) (16,473) (16,803) (17,139) (17,482) (17,831) (18,188) (18,552) (18,923) (19,301) (19,687) (20,081) (20,483)
-Xylitol 木糖醇(@A$1.00 /kg) - - - - - (10,618) (21,661) (22,094) (22,536) (22,987) (23,446) (23,915) (24,394) (24,882) (25,379) (25,887) (26,405) (26,933) (27,471) (28,021) (28,581) (29,153) (29,736) (30,331) (30,937) (31,556)
Depreciation 折旧 - - - - - (11,250) (11,313) (11,378) (11,444) (11,511) (11,580) (11,650) (11,721) (11,794) (11,868) (11,944) (12,021) (12,100) (12,180) (12,568) (13,285) (14,038) (14,831) (15,666) (16,544) (6,218)
Totaloverheads 总营业费 - - - - - (28,760) (47,034) (47,813) (48,608) (49,418) (50,245) (51,088) (51,948) (52,826) (53,721) (54,633) (55,564) (56,514) (57,483) (58,777) (60,417) (62,114) (63,868) (65,684) (67,562) (58,256)
EBIT - - - - - 10,361 32,773 33,590 34,424 35,274 36,141 37,025 37,928 38,848 39,786 40,744 41,720 42,716 43,732 44,462 44,887 45,296 45,690 46,066 46,422 58,008
EBITmarginEBIT 利润 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.9% 35.6% 35.8% 35.9% 36.1% 36.2% 36.4% 36.6% 36.7% 36.9% 37.0% 37.2% 37.3% 37.4% 37.3% 36.9% 36.5% 36.1% 35.7% 35.3% 43.2%
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Interestexpense 利息支出 - - - (4,725) (9,450) (9,450) (9,219) (8,973) (8,709) (8,427) (8,124) (7,801) (7,455) (7,085) (6,689) (6,265) (5,812) (5,326) (4,807) (4,252) (3,657) (3,021) (2,341) (1,613) (834) -
Profitbefore tax 税前利润 - - - (4,725) (9,450) 911 23,554 24,617 25,715 26,847 28,017 29,224 30,472 31,763 33,097 34,479 35,909 37,390 38,925 40,210 41,229 42,275 43,349 44,453 45,589 58,008
Notionaltax 概念税 - - - - - - (3,087) (7,385) (7,714) (8,054) (8,405) (8,767) (9,142) (9,529) (9,929) (10,344) (10,773) (11,217) (11,678) (12,063) (12,369) (12,682) (13,005) (13,336) (13,677) (17,402)
Netprofitafter tax 税后净利润 - - - (4,725) (9,450) 911 20,467 17,232 18,000 18,793 19,612 20,457 21,331 22,234 23,168 24,135 25,136 26,173 27,248 28,147 28,860 29,592 30,344 31,117 31,912 40,605
Add:附加
- - - 4,725 9,450 9,450 9,219 8,973 8,709 8,427 8,124 7,801 7,455 7,085 6,689 6,265 5,812 5,326 4,807 4,252 3,657 3,021 2,341 1,613 834 -
Interestexpense 利息支出
- - - - - 10,361 29,686 26,205 26,709 27,220 27,736 28,258 28,786 29,319 29,857 30,400 30,948 31,499 32,055 32,399 32,518 32,614 32,685 32,730 32,746 40,605
Netoperatingprofitafter tax 税后净经营收益
- - - - - 11,250 11,313 11,378 11,444 11,511 11,580 11,650 11,721 11,794 11,868 11,944 12,021 12,100 12,180 12,568 13,285 14,038 14,831 15,666 16,544 6,218
Depreciation and amortisation 折 旧 和 摊 销
- - - (112,500) (112,500) (1,267) (1,292) (1,318) (1,344) (1,371) (1,399) (1,427) (1,455) (1,484) (1,514) (1,544) (1,575) (1,607) (7,771) (14,321) (15,072) (15,861) (16,691) (17,563) (18,479) (8,191)
Capitalinvestment 资本投资
- - - 62,775 58,050 (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) (12,743) -
Financing and repayments 融资和还款
- - - (49,725) (54,450) 7,601 26,964 23,522 24,066 24,616 25,174 25,738 26,308 26,885 27,468 28,056 28,650 29,249 23,721 17,904 17,987 18,048 18,083 18,090 18,068 38,632
Free cashflows 自由现金流量
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Appendix7:EthtecProjections-BaseCase
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Numberofplants 工厂的数量 - - - - - 1 1 2 2 3 6 9 13 18 24 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Equivalent60ML plants 相当于 60ML 产量的工厂 - - - - - - - 0.50 1.00 1.50 3.50 6.50 10.00 14.50 20.00 25.50 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Equivalentmixed 36ML Ethanolplants - - - - - 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Ethanol marketshare %乙醇市场份额 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.1% 3.8% 5.5% 7.2% 14.0% 24.3% 36.3% 51.7% 70.6% 89.4% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0%
Growth %增长率 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 100.0% 83.3% 45.5% 31.3% 95.2% 73.2% 49.3% 42.5% 36.4% 26.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ethanolrevenue 乙醇收益 $'m - - - - - 18.6 38.0 71.0 105.3 141.0 280.8 496.0 755.3 1,097.4 1,527.1 1,973.5 2,205.8 2,249.9 2,294.9 2,340.8 2,387.6 2,435.4 2,484.1 2,533.8 2,584.5 2,636.2
Xylitolrevenue 木糖醇收益 $'m - - - - - 26.5 54.2 55.2 56.3 57.5 58.6 59.8 61.0 62.2 63.4 64.7 66.0 67.3 68.7 70.1 71.5 72.9 74.3 75.8 77.3 78.9
Royalty 专利使用费
-Ethanol 乙醇(@6.0% ofsales) - - - - - 1,117 2,278 4,259 6,319 8,460 16,848 29,759 45,317 65,846 91,627 118,412 132,349 134,996 137,696 140,450 143,259 146,124 149,046 152,027 155,068 158,169
-Xylitol 木糖醇(@6.0% ofsales) - - - - - 1,593 3,249 3,314 3,380 3,448 3,517 3,587 3,659 3,732 3,807 3,883 3,961 4,040 4,121 4,203 4,287 4,373 4,460 4,550 4,641 4,733
Upfront licensing fees 前期许可费 - - - - 3,000 - 3,000 - 3,000 9,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 15,000 - - - - - - - - - - -
Technicalservice fees 技术服务费 - - - 500 500 1,000 1,000 1,500 2,700 4,200 5,900 8,400 11,100 12,500 11,600 10,200 8,700 6,700 4,600 4,000 3,200 2,200 1,000 - - -
TotalEthtec revenueEthtec 的总收益 - - - 500 3,500 3,709 9,527 9,073 15,400 25,108 35,265 53,746 75,076 100,078 122,033 132,495 145,010 145,736 146,417 148,653 150,746 152,697 154,507 156,577 159,708 162,903
Revenue growth % 收益增长 n/a n/a n/a n/a 600.0% 6.0% 156.8% -4.8% 69.7% 63.0% 40.5% 52.4% 39.7% 33.3% 21.9% 8.6% 9.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0%
Grant income 资助收入 1,676 500 6,801 463 389 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Royaltyto ApaceApace 的专利使用费 - - - - - - - - - (680) (1,763) (2,687) (3,754) (8,249) (12,203) (13,249) (14,501) (14,574) (14,642) (14,865) (15,075) (15,270) (15,451) (15,658) (15,971) (16,290)
Operating expenses 经营支出 (2,550) (2,601) (2,653) (2,706) (2,760) (3,378) (3,446) (4,101) (4,183) (4,876) (6,839) (8,878) (11,642) (15,174) (19,515) (23,337) (23,804) (24,280) (24,766) (25,261) (25,766) (26,282) (26,807) (27,343) (27,890) (28,448)
EBITDA (874) (2,101) 4,148 (1,743) 1,129 331 6,081 4,973 11,217 19,552 26,663 42,181 59,680 76,656 90,315 95,908 106,705 106,882 107,009 108,526 109,905 111,145 112,249 113,576 115,847 118,164
EBITDAmargin %EBITDA 利润率 n/a n/a n/a - 348.5% 32.3% 8.9% 63.8% 54.8% 72.8% 77.9% 75.6% 78.5% 79.5% 76.6% 74.0% 72.4% 73.6% 73.3% 73.1% 73.0% 72.9% 72.8% 72.6% 72.5% 72.5% 72.5%
Depreciation 折旧 (6) (8) (8) (20) (22) (1,620) (1,638) (1,651) (1,670) (1,689) (1,709) (1,727) (1,748) (2,168) (2,780) (3,363) (3,744) (4,186) (4,411) (4,648) (4,927) (5,218) (5,520) (5,827) (6,151) (4,916)
EBIT (879) (2,108) 4,140 (1,762) 1,108 (1,289) 4,443 3,321 9,547 17,863 24,954 40,453 57,932 74,488 87,534 92,545 102,960 102,696 102,598 103,879 104,978 105,928 106,729 107,749 109,696 113,248
EBITmargin %EBIT 利润率 n/a n/a n/a - 352.4% 31.6% -34.8% 46.6% 36.6% 62.0% 71.1% 70.8% 75.3% 77.2% 74.4% 71.7% 69.8% 71.0% 70.5% 70.1% 69.9% 69.6% 69.4% 69.1% 68.8% 68.7% 69.5%
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 46of59
DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Notionaltax 税收概念 (504) - (145) (2,038) (283) (1,160) (525) (2,170) (1,893) (3,687) (6,223) (8,576) (13,410) (18,883) (24,110) (28,302) (29,960) (32,905) (32,660) (32,479) (32,724) (32,926) (33,093) (33,226) (33,433) (33,926) (34,908)
R&D taxincentive 研发税的优惠 1,796 1,181 5,603 1,914 1,508 1,347 1,237 1,306 1,199 1,089 1,347 1,555 3,042 3,708 3,793 3,392 3,218 2,558 2,358 2,220 2,045 1,884 1,736 1,607 1,502 1,327
Netoperatingprofitafter tax 税后净利润 917 (1,072) 7,704 (131) 1,455 (468) 3,509 2,734 7,058 12,729 17,724 28,598 42,091 54,085 63,025 65,976 73,273 72,594 72,477 73,375 74,097 74,719 75,239 75,923 77,272 79,667
Depreciation and amortisation 折旧和摊销 6 8 8 20 22 1,620 1,638 1,651 1,670 1,689 1,709 1,727 1,748 2,168 2,780 3,363 3,744 4,186 4,411 4,648 4,927 5,218 5,520 5,827 6,151 4,916
Capitalinvestment 资本投资 (1,941) (353) (11,354) (2,080) (1,009) (363) (370) (378) (385) (393) (401) (409) (8,546) (12,169) (11,562) (7,548) (8,750) (4,476) (4,684) (5,542) (5,764) (5,998) (6,244) (6,655) (7,403) (6,194)
Free cashflows 自由现金流量 (1,018) (1,416) (3,641) (2,191) 468 789 4,777 4,008 8,343 14,025 19,032 29,917 35,292 44,084 54,243 61,792 68,267 72,304 72,204 72,480 73,260 73,938 74,515 75,095 76,019 78,389
Partperiod factor 部分时间因素 1
Yearsto midpoint 半年计年份 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.5 25.5
Discountfactor@20.0% 0.913 0.761 0.634 0.528 0.440 0.367 0.306 0.255 0.212 0.177 0.147 0.123 0.102 0.085 0.071 0.059 0.049 0.041 0.034 0.029 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.010
Presentvalue 现值 (929) (1,077) (2,308) (1,158) 206 290 1,460 1,021 1,771 2,481 2,806 3,676 3,613 3,761 3,857 3,661 3,371 2,975 2,476 2,071 1,744 1,467 1,232 1,035 873 750
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 47of59
DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Appendix8:EthtecProjections-UpsideCase
附件 8 Ethtec 预测-上行情况
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Numberofplants 工厂的数量 - - - - - 1 1 2 2 3 9 12 19 24 33 47 56 68 83 101 116 116 116 116 116 116
Equivalent60ML plants 相当于 60ML 产量的工厂 - - - - - - - - - 0.50 4.00 8.50 13.50 19.50 26.50 38.00 49.50 60.00 73.50 90.00 106.50 114.00 114.00 114.00 114.00 114.00
Equivalentmixed 36ML Ethanolplants 相当于 - - - - - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
36ML 产量的混合工厂
Ethanol marketshare %乙醇市场份额 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 2.4% 3.0% 3.7% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%
Growth %增长率 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 100.0% 50.0% 33.3% 41.7% 205.9% 86.5% 51.5% 40.8% 33.8% 41.5% 29.3% 20.7% 22.1% 22.1% 18.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ethanolrevenue 乙醇收益 $'m - - - - - 18.6 38.0 58.1 79.0 114.1 356.1 677.6 1,047.4 1,504.4 2,053.4 2,964.1 3,910.3 4,814.5 5,994.1 7,464.5 8,991.2 9,809.7 10,005.9 10,206.0 10,410.2 10,618.4
Xylitolrevenue 木糖醇收益 $'m - - - - - 26.5 54.2 82.9 112.7 114.9 117.2 119.6 122.0 124.4 126.9 129.4 132.0 134.7 137.4 140.1 142.9 145.8 148.7 151.7 154.7 157.8
Royalty 专利使用费
-Ethanol 乙醇(@6.0% ofsales) - - - - - 1,117 2,278 3,485 4,740 6,849 21,368 40,656 62,845 90,266 123,207 177,844 234,619 288,872 359,646 447,868 539,474 588,583 600,355 612,362 624,609 637,101
-Xylitol 木糖醇(@6.0% ofsales) - - - - - 1,593 3,249 4,971 6,761 6,896 7,034 7,175 7,318 7,464 7,614 7,766 7,921 8,080 8,241 8,406 8,574 8,746 8,921 9,099 9,281 9,467
Upfront licensing fees 前期许可费 - - - - 3,000 - 3,000 - 3,000 18,000 9,000 21,000 15,000 27,000 42,000 27,000 36,000 45,000 54,000 45,000 - - - - - -
Technicalservice fees 技术服务费 - - - 500 500 1,000 1,000 1,500 4,200 5,700 8,900 11,400 15,600 20,600 24,200 27,900 33,900 40,000 42,100 38,800 33,800 28,300 21,100 13,800 12,000 9,600
TotalEthtec revenueEthtec 的总收益 - - - 500 3,500 3,709 9,527 9,956 18,700 37,445 46,302 80,231 100,763 145,330 197,020 240,510 312,440 381,952 463,987 540,074 581,849 625,629 630,375 635,261 645,890 656,168
Revenue growth % 利润率 n/a n/a n/a n/a 600.0% 6.0% 156.8% 4.5% 87.8% 100.2% 23.7% 73.3% 25.6% 44.2% 35.6% 22.1% 29.9% 22.2% 21.5% 16.4% 7.7% 7.5% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 1.6%
Grant income 资助收入 1,676 500 6,801 463 389 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Royaltyto ApaceApace 的专利使用费 - - - - - - - - - (1,506) (2,315) (4,012) (7,265) (14,533) (19,702) (24,051) (31,244) (38,195) (46,399) (54,007) (58,185) (62,563) (63,038) (63,526) (64,589) (65,617)
Operating expenses 经营支出 (2,550) (2,601) (2,653) (2,706) (2,760) (3,378) (3,446) (4,101) (4,183) (4,876) (8,704) (10,780) (15,523) (19,132) (25,571) (35,692) (42,707) (52,131) (64,100) (78,755) (91,698) (93,532) (95,402) (97,310) (99,257) (101,242)
EBITDA (874) (2,101) 4,148 (1,743) 1,129 331 6,081 5,855 14,518 31,063 35,283 65,439 77,974 111,665 151,747 180,767 238,489 291,626 353,489 407,311 431,966 469,534 471,935 474,424 482,044 489,309
EBITDAmargin %EBITDA 利润 n/a n/a n/a - 348.5% 32.3% 8.9% 63.8% 58.8% 77.6% 83.0% 76.2% 81.6% 77.4% 76.8% 77.0% 75.2% 76.3% 76.4% 76.2% 75.4% 74.2% 75.0% 74.9% 74.7% 74.6% 74.6%
Depreciation 折旧 (6) (8) (8) (20) (22) (1,620) (1,638) (1,651) (1,670) (1,689) (1,709) (1,727) (2,195) (2,710) (3,745) (4,977) (6,106) (7,867) (9,668) (11,813) (13,946) (15,494) (17,152) (18,103) (19,096) (18,653)
EBIT (879) (2,108) 4,140 (1,762) 1,108 (1,289) 4,443 4,204 12,847 29,373 33,574 63,712 75,779 108,955 148,002 175,790 232,382 283,759 343,821 395,498 418,020 454,040 454,784 456,321 462,949 470,656
EBITmargin %EBIT 利润 n/a n/a n/a - 352.4% 31.6% -34.8% 46.6% 42.2% 68.7% 78.4% 72.5% 79.4% 75.2% 75.0% 75.1% 73.1% 74.4% 74.3% 74.1% 73.2% 71.8% 72.6% 72.1% 71.8% 71.7% 71.7%
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 48of59
DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f
Notionaltax 概念税收 (504) - (145) (2,038) (283) (1,160) (525) (2,170) (2,158) (4,678) (9,676) (11,460) (20,660) (24,738) (34,910) (47,076) (56,097) (73,333) (89,103) ###### ###### ###### (140,892) (140,731) (140,840) (142,505) (1
R&D taxincentive 研发税优惠 1,796 1,181 5,603 1,914 1,508 1,347 1,237 1,306 1,199 1,089 1,693 3,356 3,907 5,379 6,101 6,378 7,669 7,811 8,534 8,720 7,935 7,386 6,013 5,549 5,217
Netoperatingprofitafter tax 税后净经营利润 917 (1,072) 7,704 (131) 1,455 (468) 3,509 3,352 9,369 20,786 23,807 46,408 54,948 79,424 107,028 126,071 166,718 202,467 244,809 280,704 295,452 320,535 320,065 321,030 325,661 3
Depreciation and amortisation 折旧和摊销 6 8 8 20 22 1,620 1,638 1,651 1,670 1,689 1,709 1,727 2,195 2,710 3,745 4,977 6,106 7,867 9,668 11,813 13,946 15,494 17,152 18,103 19,096
Capitalinvestment 资本投资 (1,941) (353) (11,354) (2,080) (1,009) (363) (370) (378) (385) (393) (401) (9,269) (10,408) (20,536) (24,420) (22,373) (34,878) (35,672) (42,482) (42,248) (30,656) (33,006) (19,050) (20,057) (23,347) (
Free cashflows 自由现金流量 (1,018) (1,416) (3,641) (2,191) 468 789 4,777 4,626 10,654 22,083 25,116 38,866 46,735 61,597 86,352 108,674 137,947 174,662 211,995 250,269 278,742 303,023 318,167 319,076 321,409 3
Partperiod factor 部分时间因素 1
Yearsto midpoint 半年计年 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.5
Discountfactor@20.0%贴现因素 0.913 0.761 0.634 0.528 0.440 0.367 0.306 0.255 0.212 0.177 0.147 0.123 0.102 0.085 0.071 0.059 0.049 0.041 0.034 0.029 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.011
Presentvalue 现值 (929) (1,077) (2,308) (1,158) 206 290 1,460 1,178 2,262 3,907 3,703 4,775 4,785 5,256 6,140 6,439 6,811 7,187 7,269 7,151 6,637 6,013 5,261 4,397 3,691
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 49of59
DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Appendix9:EthtecProjections-LowCase
附件 9 Ethtec 预测-下行情况
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Numberofplants 工厂数量 - - - - - 1 1 2 2 3 6 9 13 18 24 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29
Equivalent60ML plants 与 60ML 工厂产量相当 - - - - - - - 0.50 1.00 1.50 3.50 6.50 10.00 14.50 20.00 25.50 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00 28.00
Equivalentmixed 36ML Ethanolplants - - - - - 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
与 36ML 混合工厂产量相当
Ethanol marketshare %乙醇的市场份额 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.1% 3.8% 5.5% 7.2% 14.0% 24.3% 36.3% 51.7% 70.6% 89.4% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0%
Growth % 增长率% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 100.0% 83.3% 45.5% 31.3% 95.2% 73.2% 49.3% 42.5% 36.4% 26.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ethanolrevenue 乙醇收益 $'m - - - - - 18.6 38.0 71.0 105.3 141.0 280.8 496.0 755.3 1,097.4 1,527.1 1,973.5 2,205.8 2,249.9 2,294.9 2,340.8 2,387.6 2,435.4 2,484.1 2,533.8 2,584.5 2,636.2
Xylitolrevenue 木糖醇收益 $'m - - - - - 26.5 54.2 55.2 56.3 57.5 58.6 59.8 61.0 62.2 63.4 64.7 66.0 67.3 68.7 70.1 71.5 72.9 74.3 75.8 77.3 78.9
Royalty 专利使用费
-Ethanol 乙醇(@2.0% ofsales) - - - - - 372 759 1,420 2,106 2,820 5,616 9,920 15,106 21,949 30,542 39,471 44,116 44,999 45,899 46,817 47,753 48,708 49,682 50,676 51,689 52,723
-Ethanol 乙醇(@2.0% ofsales) - - - - - 531 1,083 1,105 1,127 1,149 1,172 1,196 1,220 1,244 1,269 1,294 1,320 1,347 1,374 1,401 1,429 1,458 1,487 1,517 1,547 1,578
Upfront licensing fees 前期许可费 - - - - 3,000 - 3,000 - 3,000 9,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 15,000 - - - - - - - - - - -
Technicalservice fees 技术服务费 - - - 500 500 1,000 1,000 1,500 2,700 4,200 5,900 8,400 11,100 12,500 11,600 10,200 8,700 6,700 4,600 4,000 3,200 2,200 1,000 - - -
TotalEthtec revenueEthtec 总收益 - - - 500 3,500 1,903 5,842 4,024 8,933 17,169 21,688 31,515 42,425 53,693 58,411 50,965 54,137 53,045 51,872 52,218 52,382 52,366 52,169 52,192 53,236 54,301
Revenue growth % 收益增长率 n/a n/a n/a n/a 600.0% -45.6% 207.0% -31.1% 122.0% 92.2% 26.3% 45.3% 34.6% 26.6% 8.8% -12.7% 6.2% -2.0% -2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% -0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Grant income 资助收入 1,676 500 6,801 463 389 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Royaltyto ApaceApace 收到的专利使用费 - - - - - - - - - - (517) (1,576) (2,121) (2,685) (2,921) (4,272) (5,414) (5,305) (5,187) (5,222) (5,238) (5,237) (5,217) (5,219) (5,324) (5,430)
Operating expenses 经营支出 (2,550) (2,601) (2,653) (2,706) (2,760) (3,378) (3,446) (4,101) (4,183) (4,876) (6,839) (8,878) (11,642) (15,174) (19,515) (23,337) (23,804) (24,280) (24,766) (25,261) (25,766) (26,282) (26,807) (27,343) (27,890) (28,448)
EBITDA (874) (2,101) 4,148 (1,743) 1,129 (1,475) 2,396 (76) 4,750 12,293 14,332 21,062 28,662 35,834 35,975 23,355 24,919 23,461 21,919 21,735 21,377 20,847 20,145 19,630 20,022 20,423
EBITDAmargin %EBITDA 利润 n/a n/a n/a - 348.5% 32.3% -77.5% 41.0% -1.9% 53.2% 71.6% 66.1% 66.8% 67.6% 66.7% 61.6% 45.8% 46.0% 44.2% 42.3% 41.6% 40.8% 39.8% 38.6% 37.6% 37.6% 37.6%
Depreciation 折旧 (6) (8) (8) (20) (22) (1,620) (1,638) (1,651) (1,670) (1,689) (1,709) (1,727) (1,748) (1,757) (1,823) (2,009) (2,031) (2,126) (2,211) (2,299) (2,421) (2,546) (2,674) (2,805) (2,946) (1,515)
EBIT (879) (2,108) 4,140 (1,762) 1,108 (3,095) 758 (1,728) 3,080 10,604 12,623 19,334 26,914 34,077 34,153 21,346 22,888 21,334 19,708 19,436 18,956 18,301 17,470 16,825 17,076 18,908
EBITmargin %EBIT 利润率 n/a n/a n/a - 352.4% 31.6% -162.6% 13.0% -42.9% 34.5% 61.8% 58.2% 61.3% 63.4% 63.5% 58.5% 41.9% 42.3% 40.2% 38.0% 37.2% 36.2% 34.9% 33.5% 32.2% 32.1% 34.8%
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 50of59
DraftforDiscussionPurposes
Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Notionaltax 概念税收 (504) - (145) (2,038) (283) (1,160) - (1,048) (379) (1,747) (4,045) (4,877) (7,074) (9,578) (11,987) (12,287) (8,601) (8,883) (8,252) (7,612) (7,391) (7,119) (6,805) (6,448) (6,156) (6,140) (6,606)
R&D taxincentive 研发税优惠 1,796 1,181 5,603 1,914 1,508 1,347 1,237 1,306 1,199 1,245 1,347 1,555 1,817 2,238 2,834 2,612 2,540 2,310 2,122 1,996 1,832 1,682 1,545 1,426 1,330 1,164
Netoperatingprofitafter tax 税后净营业利润 917 (1,072) 7,704 (131) 1,455 (1,748) 946 (800) 2,532 7,804 9,093 13,815 19,153 24,328 24,700 15,357 16,544 15,393 14,218 14,041 13,669 13,178 12,567 12,095 12,266 13,465
Depreciation and amortisation 折扣和摊销 6 8 8 20 22 1,620 1,638 1,651 1,670 1,689 1,709 1,727 1,748 1,757 1,823 2,009 2,031 2,126 2,211 2,299 2,421 2,546 2,674 2,805 2,946 1,515
Capitalinvestment 资本投资 (1,941) (353) (11,354) (2,080) (1,009) (363) (370) (378) (385) (393) (401) (409) (417) (1,334) (3,710) (443) (1,888) (1,690) (1,742) (2,437) (2,487) (2,540) (2,596) (2,814) (3,363) (1,941)
Free cashflows 自由现金流 (1,018) (1,416) (3,641) (2,191) 468 (492) 2,214 473 3,817 9,100 10,401 15,133 20,484 24,752 22,813 16,924 16,687 15,830 14,688 13,903 13,604 13,185 12,646 12,086 11,849 13,040
Partperiod factor 部分期间因素 1
Yearsto midpoint 半年计年 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.5 25.5
Discountfactor 贴现因素@20.0% 0.913 0.761 0.634 0.528 0.440 0.367 0.306 0.255 0.212 0.177 0.147 0.123 0.102 0.085 0.071 0.059 0.049 0.041 0.034 0.029 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.010
Presentvalue 现值 (929) (1,077) (2,308) (1,158) 206 (180) 677 121 810 1,610 1,533 1,859 2,097 2,112 1,622 1,003 824 651 504 397 324 262 209 167 136 125
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 51of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Appendix10:EthtecProjections-FailureCase
附件 10 Ethtec 预测-失败情况
$'000 FY16 FY17f FY18f FY19f FY20f FY21f FY22f FY23f FY24f FY25f FY26f FY27f FY28f FY29f FY30f FY31f FY32f FY33f FY34f FY35f FY36f FY37f FY38f FY39f FY40f FY41f FY42f
Grant income 资助收入 1,676 500 6,801 463 389 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Royaltyto Apace - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Apace 收到的专利使用费
Operating expenses 经营支出 (2,550) (2,601) (2,653) (2,706) (2,760) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBITDA 息税折旧摊销前利润 (874) (2,101) 4,148 (2,243) (2,371) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBITDAmargin %EBITDA 盈余% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Depreciation 折旧 (6) (8) (8) (20) (22) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBIT (879) (2,108) 4,140 (2,262) (2,392) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
EBITmargin % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
EBIT 盈余%
Notionaltax 概念税收 (504) - (145) (2,038) (133) (110) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
R&D taxincentive 研发税优惠 1,796 1,181 5,603 1,914 1,508 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Netoperatingprofitafter tax 917 (1,072) 7,704 (481) (995) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
经营收益税后净值
Depreciation and amortization 6 8 8 20 22 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
折旧及摊销
Capitalinvestment 资本投入 (1,941) (353) (11,354) (2,080) (1,009) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Free cashflows 自由现金流量 (1,018) (1,416) (3,641) (2,541) (1,982) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Partperiod factor 部分时间因素 1
Yearsto midpoint 半年计年 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.5 25.5
Discountfactor@20.0% 0.913 0.761 0.634 0.528 0.440 0.367 0.306 0.255 0.212 0.177 0.147 0.123 0.102 0.085 0.071 0.059 0.049 0.041 0.034 0.029 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.010
贴现率 20%时的贴现因素
Presentvalue 现值 (929) (1,077) (2,308) (1,343) (873) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 52of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Appendix11:DiscountRateFramework
附件 11 贴现率框架
Weighted Average CostofCapital 加权平均资本成本
WACCreflectsthe rateofreturnexpected for an asset, adjusted for its underlyingfunding structure, such asrelative
components of debtandequity. Itis calculated asfollows:
加权平均资本成本（WACC）反映了基于基本融资的结构调整后，资产的预期回报率，比如债务和股权的相关组成部分。
WACC 计算方法如下：
WACCFormula(Standard) WACC 公式（标准）
WACC= [Kex E/V] + [Kdx D/V x(1-t)]
Components 组成
WACC Weighted average costof capital 加权平均资本成本
D Marketvalueofdebt 债务市值
E Marketvalueofequity 股权市值
Kd Costof debt(pre-tax) whichis therateofreturnrequired bytheproviders of debt capital
债务成本（税前），是债务资本提供者要求的回报率
Ke Costof equity(post-tax) which istherate of return requiredbythe providersofequitycapital
股权成本（税前），是股票资本提供者要求的回报率
t Corporate taxrate 公司税率
V Marketvalueof business(whereV = D+ E)业务市值（其中 V = D+ E）
CostofEquity 股权成本
There areanumberof modelsavailable for estimatingthe cost of equityfor aninvestment. The most commonlyusedin practice
istheCapital Asset PricingModel("CAPM"),whichwehave usedinthisreport.
在估计投资权益成本时，有许多模型可用。实践中最常用的是资本资产定价模型(CAPM)，我们在此报告中使用过。
The CAPMisbased ontheassumptionthatinvestorsrequirea premiumforinvestingin equitiesabovetheexpected return
frominvesting inriskfree assets(suchas Australiangovernment bonds).
CAPM 基于这样一个假设，即投资者要求投资于股票的溢价要高于投资于无风险资产(如澳大利亚政府债券)的预期回报。
CAPM FormulaCAPM 公式
Ke= Rf+ β(Rm- Rf) + αs+ αc
Components 组成 Assumptions 假设
Ke Costofequity 股权成本 ◆ Investors arerationaland riskaverse 投资者是理性的，规避风险
Rf Risk freerate 无风险折现率 ◆ Investors arewidelydiversified 投资者大都是多种经营
β Systematic risk 不可避免风险 ◆ There areno transaction costs (includingtaxation)无交易成本(包括税收)
Rm Required returnfrom the market 市场必要收入 ◆ Investors canlendorborrowunlimitedamounts 投资者可以无限制地放贷或借款
Rm- Rf EquityMarket RiskPremium 股票市场的风险溢价 ◆ Investors lendand borrowat the riskfreerate 投资者以无风险折现率放款和借款
αs Sizepremium 规模溢价
αc Companyspecificriskpremium 公司特定风险溢价
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
DiscountRate Basis 贴现率的基础
In undertakingadiscounted cashflowanalysis it isnecessarytodecidehowtotreat a number of keyfactors, as discussed inthe
followingtable:
在进行贴现现金流量分析时，按照下述表格，确定如何处理几个关键因素是很有必要的：
Issue 事项 SelectedApproach 所选方法
Debt 债务 The impact ofdebt canbe takenintoaccountintwoways:可以从以下两方面考虑债务的影响:
◆ In the projected cashflows,byforecasting cash flowsto equityinvestors(i.e.after
deducting interest and debt repayments) and applyingthe cost of equity(ke) asthe
discountrate.在预期现金流中，通过预测股票投资者的现金流(即扣除利息并偿还债
务后)，并将权益成本(ke)作为贴现率。
◆ In thediscountrate, byforecasting cash flowsbefore financingand applyingthe
weighted average costof capital ("WACC") as thediscount rate.在贴现率中，在
融资前预测现金流量，并将资本加权平均成本 (“WACC”)作为贴现率。
In this casewe have chosento includetheimpactof debt in thediscount ratebecause
financing cashflows can reliablybe separated fromEthtec'soperating business. Thisis
Taxation 税款 Cash flowsanddiscount rates canbepreparedon apreor posttaxbasis. Posttaxisthe
generallypreferredapproach,whichwehave appliedtoEthtec.在这种情况下，我们选择将债务
影响包括在贴现率中，因为既可计算税前的现金流量和贴现率，也可计算税后现金流量和贴
现率。税后计算是我们常用的方法，并且已应用到了 Ethtec 中。
We notethataccounting standard AASB136Impairmentof Assetsrequiresimpairmenttesting
tobe undertakenwith apre taxdiscountrate. However, there are somedifficulties in usinga
pretaxdiscount rate, thus market practice isto undertakeimpairment testing using
aposttaxdiscount rate,but to disclosethe equivalent pretaxratein thefinancial statements.我们
注意到:会计标准 AASB136 要求在税前贴现率的情况下进行减值测试。但是，在应用税前贴
现率的时候存在一些困难，因此在市场实践中，是采用税后贴现率进行减值测试的，但在财
务报表中披露的是相应的税前税率。
Inflation 通胀 Itispossible toundertakea discounted cash flowanalysiswith inflationeither included
(nominal)or excluded(real) fromthe projected cashflows. Whicheverapproachisapplied to the
cash flows mustalsobeapplied tothe discount rate.有可能进行一个贴现现金流分析，无论预
期现金流中包括(名义)通胀还是不包括（真实）通胀。任何适用于现金流的方法也必须适用于
贴现率。
In theabsence of hyper-inflationitisgenerallypreferabletoundertake adiscounted cash
flowanalysisona nominalbasis(includinginflation). Wehavetherefore appliedthis approach
to assessingdiscountratesfor Ethtec.在没有恶性通货膨胀的情况下，一般来说在名义基础
(包括通货膨胀)上进行贴现现金流分析是比较可取的。因此，我们采用这种方法来评估
Ethtec 的贴现率。
As aresult ofthese considerationswe haveuseda nominal, post taxWACCappliedtonominal,post taxcashflows available
toboth equityand debt investors.
这些考量的结果是，对于股票和债券投资者可用的税后名义现金流，我们使用了税后名义上的 WACC。
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 54of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Appendix12:Weighted AverageCostofCapital
附件 12 加权平均资本成本
The WACCreflects therate of return expectedforanasset,adjustedforitsunderlying funding structure,suchasrelative
components ofdebt and equity. Itis calculated asfollows:
加权平均资本成本（WACC）反映了基于基本融资的结构调整后，资产的预期回报率，比如债务和股权的相关组成部分。
WACC 计算方法如下：
WACC= [KexE/V]+ [KdxD/Vx(1-t)]
The WACCformulaincludes anestimateofthe cost of equity(Ke). Thereare anumber of models availablefor estimating the
costof equityforaninvestment.The most commonlyusedin practiceisthe CapitalAssetpricingModel
("CAPM"),whichwehaveused inthisreport. The CAPMformulaisprovidedbelow:
WACC 公式包括对股权成本（Ke）的估计。用于估计投资股本成本的模型很多。在实践中最常用的是资本资产定价模型
(CAPM)，该模型曾在本报告中使用过。CAPM 公式表示如下:
Ke= Rf+β(Rm- Rf)+αs+αc
The componentsof theWACCandKeare summarised inthetablebelow:
WACC 及 Ke 的组成在下表中给出小结：
Component 组成 Description 描述 Low 低 High 高
The riskfreerate isestimatedbyreferencetothe yieldonten year Australian
R 2.70% 2.70%
参考 10 年期的澳大利亚政府债券的收益之后，我们对无风险贴现率进行了估计。截至 2017 年 2 月 10 日，它是:
Leadenhall hasexamined thebetaestimates of comparableindustries.Wehave
selected thefollowing equitybetahaving regardtothe relativelyhigh 1.00 1.10
β
riskinessofnature : Leadenhall 研究了可比行业的 beta 估计。我们选择了下述具
有天然高风险的股权 beta：
The Market Risk Premium(EMRP) reflects theexpected"additional return"over the 6.5% 6.5%
risk freerate for bearingthe additionalriskofinvestinginriskyassets(businesses).
Rm- Rf Leadenhall undertakesananalysisof EMRP implied bymarket pricesonthe ASX
EMRPs appliedbyotherindustrypractitioners. As at December 2016 weadopted
anEMRP for Australiaof6.5%.市场风险溢价(EMRP)反映了预期的基于无风险贴现率的“额外回报”，以承担对 7.0% 8.0%
风险资产(业务)投资的额外风险。至少每六个月 Leadenhall 就会对 ASX 的市场价格进行一次 EMRP 分析。该分析与其他
行业从业人员的 EMRPs 审查一起进行的。截止 2016 年 12 月，我们对澳大利亚采用的 EMRP 为 6.5%。
Standard CAPMCost of Equity(Post-taxNominal)
标准 CAPM 股权成本(税后名义)
The sizepremium istheadditional returnthat investors requirefor the
risksofinvesting in smallbusinesses. The sizepremium
3.0% 3.0%
canbeobservedinearnings
αs multiples of listed companies, withlarge companiestradingon higher multiples
measuring sizepremiumsin Australia.Inour experiencea sizepremiumof 7.0%to
8.0% isreasonable for abusiness the size of Ethtec:规模溢价是投资者投资于小型企业所承担风险
的额外回报。在上市公司的盈利倍数中可以观察到其规模溢价；大公司的盈利倍数比小公司要高，其他所有公司的市盈
率都是平等的。在澳大利亚对规模溢价的研究有限。以我们的经验来看，对于规模如 Ethtec 的公司来说，合理的规模溢
价在 7.0%到 8.0%。 19.2% 20.9%
Ifthereis a specificrisk differencein the subject companyrelativeto companies from which the
market data is drawn, an adjustment to the discount rate may be
appropriate. This difference may be due to an element of risk that neither the beta
factor nor the size premium fully account for. The 'specific risk' factor could also be
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 the subject company was less risky than the Page 55of59
average comparable company. In selecting an appropriate alpha, we have
considered the risks associated with key person retention and customer and
Draft forDiscussionPurposes
from which the market data is drawn, an adjustment to the discount rate may be
appropriate. This difference may be due to an element of risk that neither the beta
factor nor the size premium fully account for. The 'specific risk' factor could also be
negative if it were concluded that the subject company was less risky than the
average comparable company. In selecting an appropriate alpha, we have
considered the risks associated with key person retention and customer and
supplier concentration risks as well as the lack of direct ownership of the underlying
IP. These risks have not been factored into our cash flow analysis or probability
weightings. We have therefore adopted a specific risk premium of:
规模溢价是投资者投资于小型企业所承担风险的额外回报。在上市公司的盈利倍数中可以观察到其规模溢价；大公司的盈利倍数比小公司要高，其他所有公司的市盈率都是平等
的。在澳大利亚对规模溢价的研究有限。以我们的经验来看，对于规模如 Ethtec 的公司来说，合理的规模溢价在 7.0%到 8.0%。
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 56of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Component 组件 Description 描述 Low 低 High 高
E/Vrepresents theproportion of equityin the capital structure. The capital structure used toassess thediscountrate
shouldbe basedon anefficientcapital structure,
as opposedtothe actuallevelsofdebt andequityin thebusiness. An analysisof
E/V
90.0% 95.0%
coverhasbeenundertaken toassessan appropriate capital structure. Basedon this analysiswe have selected a capital
structurewith equityof: E/V 表示了资本结构中的股权占比。用于评估贴现率的资本结构应基于一个有效的资本结构，而
非业务的实际债务水平和股权。为了评估一个资本结构是否恰当，我们对可比公司进行了分析，并对基于利息保障倍数
的可用债务进行了评估。基于上述分析，我们选择了一个资本结构，它应占有股权为:
D/Vrepresents theproportion of debtinthe capital structure. Bydefinition D/V plus
E/V E/Vmust equal one. We haveassessedD/Vfor Ethtecassuming limitedtangible assetbacking.D/V 表示债务在资本结构中
10.0% 5.0%
的占比。根据定义，D/V + E/V=1。在假设存在有限的有形资产支持下，我们对 Ethtec 的 D/V 进行了评估。
K The cost ofdebt isan estimateoftheinterest rate requiredbylenderstothe business.It is relatedtothe sizeofthebusiness,
the levelofgearingandtheriskiness of lending tothebusiness.Indetermining anappropriate costof debt we
and theprevailingindicativelending ratesaspublishedbytheRBA. Basedonthis analysis wehave adopteda costof debt of:
债务的成本是出借方对业务所要求的利率估计，与业务规模、杠杆水平及贷款对业务的风险有关。在确定适当的债务成 7.5% 8.5%
本时，我们已考虑了适用于企业当前债务的实际利率以及 RBA 公布的现行指示性贷款利率。基于此分析，我们接受了
债务成本:
Interestpaidon debt is generallydeductible.TheAustralian corporatetaxrateof30.0% has been adopted for this purpose 债务
t
利息一般都是可扣除的。澳大利亚公司 30.0%的公司税都是债务利息。
30.0% 30.0%
WeightedAverageCostof Capital(Post-taxNominal) 加权平均资本成本(税后名义)
6.6% 6.7%
SelectedWACC 选定的 WACC
18.0% 20.0%
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 57of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Appendix13:Disclaimers
附件 13 免责声明
Responsibilityand Purpose 责任和目的
This report hasbeen preparedfor Ethtecforcapitalraisingpurposes.Leadenhallexpresslydisclaimsanyliabilityto Ethtec,or
anyoneelse,whether for ournegligenceor otherwise,if thereportisusedbyanyother person or for anyother purpose.
本报告是为 Ethtec 筹集资金而作。若本报告被其他任何人或以任何其他用途使用，无论是因我们的疏忽或其他原因，
Leadenhall 明确表示不对 Ethtec 或其他任何人负有任何责任。
Neitherthewhole nor anypartof thisreport,nor anyreference thereto, maybe includedinorwithor attached toany
document(including electronically), circular,resolution, letteror statement,orreleasedexternallytoanyother party
withoutthe prior written consentof Leadenhall.
在无 Leadenhall 事先书面同意的情况下，本报告的全部或任何部分，或本报告所引用的任何参考，均不得包括或附于
任何发送给第三方的文件(包括电子文本)、通知、决议、信件或声明中。
Reliance on Information 信息依赖性
In preparingthisreportwereliedonthe informationprovidedto usby Ethtecbeing completeandaccurateand wehave assumed
it hasbeenprepared inaccordancewithapplicable AccountingStandardsandthe CorporationsAct 2001. We have not
performed anaudit, reviewor financialdue diligenceonthe informationprovided. Draftsofourreport were issued to Ethtec
management forconfirmation of factual accuracy.
在编撰本报告时，我们依据的是 Ethtec 提供给我们的准确完整的信息，且我们假定本报告已按照适用的会计准则和
《2001 年公司法》进行编写。我们未对所提供的信息进行审计、审查或财务尽职调查。我们所撰报告的草稿曾发给
Ethtec 的管理层，以确认事实的准确性。
Prospective FinancialInformation 预期的财务信息
To the extent thatthisreportrefersto prospectivefinancial information, we have considered theprospective financial
information andthebasis of theunderlying assumptions. Theprocedures involvedinLeadenhall's considerationof this
information consistedoflimitedenquiries of Ethtec andEthtec personnel. These enquiriesdid not includeverification work
nor constitutean audit or a reviewengagementin accordancewiththe Australian AuditingStandards,or anyother standards.
Nothinghas cometo our attention asa result oftheseenquiries to suggestthat the financialprojectionsfor Ethtec whentaken
asawhole,areunreasonable for thepurpose of thisreport.
当本报告在某种程度上指的是未来财务信息的情况下，我们考虑了潜在的财务信息以及基本假设的根据。Leadenhall 对本
信息的考量过程，包括对 Ethtec 和 Ethtec 人员的有限问询。此类问询不包括核实工作，也不构成澳大利亚审计标准或任
何其他标准之下的审计或审查。但当我们整体考量时，我们不会因此类问询的任何结果，而认为就本报告而言，Ethtec 的
财务预测是不合理的。
We notethattheforecasts andprojections supplied tous are, bydefinition,basedupon assumptionsabouteventsand
circumstances thathavenotyet transpired. Actual results maybedifferentfrom theprospective financialinformation ofEthtec
referredto inthis report andthe variation maybe material,sinceanticipatedevents frequentlydo not occur as expected.
Accordinglywegive noassurancethatanyforecast results willbeachieved.
我们注意到：根据定义，提供给我们预测和推测是在尚未发生得有关事件和情况的假设之上的。因为预期事件经常不像预
期那样发生，因此实际结果可能与本报告所提及的 Ethtec 的预期财务信息不同，并且变化可能是实质性的。所以我们不保
证任何预测结果将会 100%在现实中产生。
MarketConditions 市场状况
Leadenhall's opinionisbased onprevailing market, economicandotherconditionsat the valuationdate. Conditions can
change over relativelyshortperiodsof time. Anysubsequent changes inthese conditions couldimpactuponthe conclusion
reachedin thisreport.
Leadenhall（伦敦肉类市场）的观点是基于评估当日的主导市场的、经济以及其他条件的。而这些条件在相对较短的时间内
是会发生变化的。这些条件的任何后续变化都可能影响本报告所做出结论。
As avaluation isbased uponexpectationsoffutureresults it involves significantjudgement. Although we consider the
assumptions usedandthe conclusionsreachedin thisreport arereasonable,other parties mayhavealternative expectations
of the future, which mayresultindifferentvaluation conclusions.The conclusions reachedbyother parties
maybeoutsideLeadenhall's preferredrange.
由于评估是基于对未来结果的预期，因此它涉及重大的判断。虽然我们认为本报告中所使用的假设以及得出的结论是合理
的，但其他各方可能对未来有着不同的预期，因此这可能导致不同的评估结论。其他各方达成的结论有可能超出了
Leadenhall 的首选范围。
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 58of59
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Indemnities 赔偿
In recognitionthatLeadenhall mayrelyon informationprovidedbyEthtecand itsofficers,employees,agents or advisors,Ethtec
hasagreedthatit willnot make anyclaimagainst Leadenhall torecover anyloss or damagewhichitmaysuffer as aresultof
that reliance andthat itwillindemnifyLeadenhallagainst anyliabilitythat arises out of Leadenhall's reliance onthe
informationprovidedbyEthtecand itsofficers, employees,agentsoradvisorsor the failurebyEthtecand its officers,
employees,agentsoradvisorsto provideLeadenhall withanymaterialinformation relatingto thisreport.
在认识到:Leadenhall（伦敦肉类市场）可能依靠 Ethtec 及其办公人员、雇员,代理或顾问提供的信息,Ethtec 已同意：不会
就任何因上述依赖性而引起的损失和损害向 Leadenhall 提起任何索赔；并且对于任何因 Leadenhall 相信 Ethtec 及其办公
人员、雇员,代理或顾问提供的信息而引起的、Leadenhall 所遭受的任何债务，或 Ethtec 及其办公人员、雇员,代理或顾问
未能向 Leadenhall 提供事关本报告的重大信息而引起的责任，Ethtec 将对 Leadenhall 作出补偿。
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 59of59
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Valuation of Ethtec Ethtec 资产评估
Independence 独立性
Leadenhall hasacted independentlyof Ethtec. Compensation payabletoLeadenhall isnotcontingent uponthe conclusion
reachedin thisreport.
Leadenhall 独立于 Ethtec 行使职能。对应支付给 Leadenhall 的补偿，本报告中得出的结论不起任何作用。
Qualifications 资质
This report hasbeenpreparedby:本报告是由以下人员编制：
◆ Dave Pearson, CA, CPA, CFA, CBV, MAppFin, Bcomm
◆ Richard Norris, BA(Hons), M.App.Fin,FCA,F.FINSIA
ProfessionalStandards 专业标准
This report hasbeenpreparedin accordancewith APES 225Valuation Services, issuedbythe AccountingProcessional and
EthicalStandards BoardLimited andthe InternationalValuations Standardsissued bythe InternationalValuation Standards
Council.
本报告是根据会计学及道德标准委员会有限公司颁布的《APES225 估价服务》以及国际评估准则理事会发布的《国际评
估标准》编制的。
4957 EthtecValuation (draft) 21022017 Page 60of59
Backcover
ADELAIDE SYDNEY
Level4,33FranklinStAd Level11,65YorkStS
elaideSA5000T+61883 ydneyNSW2000T+
852200 61288236224
