博实股份:哈尔滨博实自动化股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券信用评级报告2022-09-20
AA
AA
2019 2021
4.50
4.50
6
6
2022 5 5 AA
AA
V3.1.202204 1.
V3.1.202204
2021
62 7
55 8
2.
2019 2021
20.31%
25.45% 2021 21.13
6.03 37.44%
17.06%
3.
www.lhratings.com 1
2019 2021
aa AA 2.17% 1.79% 1.33% 2021
2 256.54% 153.64% 33.62 /EBITDA
3
C EBITDA/ 0.06 425.31
4
2
3
2
2 1.
F1 1
3 2018
1
-- --
A B C D E F 6
6 1 6
F1 F7 7
7 1 7 2.
lianhe@lhratings.com
010-85679696 3. 2019 2021
010-85679228 32.59%
2 41.46% 47.93% 43.26% 39.72% 2021
17 100022 76.62%
www.lhratings.com
www.lhratings.com 2
2019 2020 2021 2022 3
9.74 14.92 14.48 16.17
40.41 45.77 49.02 51.67
23.73 27.16 30.48 32.33
0.24 0.34 0.41 0.32
0.29 0.15 0.00 0.01
0.53 0.49 0.41 0.33
14.60 18.28 21.13 5.04
3.83 5.54 6.03 1.76
EBITDA 4.14 5.86 6.37 --
3.52 1.47 4.00 0.56
% 40.65 41.11 37.44 38.44
% 13.81 17.30 17.06 --
% 41.27 40.67 37.82 37.42
2.17 1.79 1.33 1.02
% 205.12 208.62 256.54 254.32
21.88 8.08 25.17 --
41.35 43.41 35.56 49.89
EBITDA 235.03 339.07 425.31 --
/EBITDA 0.13 0.08 0.06 --
2019 2020 2021 2022 3
34.32 39.20 43.21 --
22.76 24.93 27.70 --
0.00 0.00 0.01 --
10.88 14.00 17.77 --
3.24 3.98 5.27 --
% 33.69 36.40 35.90 --
0.01 0.00 0.03 --
% 245.09 228.92 249.57 --
27.98 11.38 29.72 --
1. 2022 2022
2.
/
-- -- -- -- -- --
www.lhratings.com 3
1997 9 1.
4.50
120.00 2010 8 4.50
2012 9 100.00
002698.SZ
4.01
2021 10.23
17.11%
9.31% 8.09%
5.61% 4.89%
1
2021
1435 2022 3
1-2
2021 49.02
30.48
1.68 2021 21.13
6.03
2022 3
51.67 32.33 =
1.67 2022 1 3 /
5.04 1.76
= /
9
www.lhratings.com 5
130% 130%
3000
P1=P0/ 1+n
P1= P0+A k / 1+k 3
P1= P0+A k /
1+n+k
P1=P0 D
P1 P0 D+A k 70%
/ 1+n+k
P0 n
k A
D P1
85%
2
www.lhratings.com 6
2.
1.
2021
23.86%
6.55 7.75
2024 2021
2021
114.37 8.10%
1
5.11% GDP
18.30% 7.90% 4.90% 4.00%
4.95% 5.47%
4.85%
1
3.00 1.60 GDP
1.10 0.90 5.19%
0.70 0.70
1.30 1.30
2021
6.10 4.50
5.08% 5.31%
2019
5.00%
2019 7.20%
2 2017 2021
2021
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
%
GDP 83.20 91.93 98.65 101.36 114.37 --
GDP % 6.95 6.75 6.00 2.20 8.10 5.11
% 6.60 6.20 5.70 2.80 9.60 6.15
% 7.20 5.90 5.40 2.90 4.90 3.90
% 10.20 8.98 8.00 -3.90 12.50 3.98
1
2019
www.lhratings.com 7
% 7.90 9.87 0.51 3.62 29.90 --
% 16.11 15.83 -2.68 -0.60 30.10 --
CPI % 1.60 2.10 2.90 2.50 0.90 --
PPI % 6.30 3.50 -0.30 -1.80 8.10 --
% 3.90 4.90 5.20 5.20 5.10 --
% 7.32 6.50 5.80 2.10 8.10 5.06
% 7.40 6.20 3.80 -3.90 10.70 --
% 7.70 8.70 8.10 2.80 0.30 --
1. GDP 2. 3. GDP
4. 2017 2018
Wind
2021
2021
44.08 2021
12.50% 3.98% 314.13 10.30%
2019 8.00% 2020 3
2021 2019
54.45 4.90%
3.90% 2019
5.40% M1
M2
2021 M2-M1
2021
6.05 2021
3.36 20.25 10.70%
29.90% 2.69
30.10% 6764.30 17.27 11.90%
PPI
2021 CPI PPI 2021 1
2021 CPI 0.90%
CPI 0.80% 2021 24.63
2021 PPI 8.10% 0.30%
3.50%
PPI 7.20% 3.40%
2021
9.80 4.80%
PPI 8.71
www.lhratings.com 8
3.50% 15.90%
11.37
3.70% 1.
2021 2020
5.10% 5.50% 2021
3.51
8.10% 5.06%
2019 5.80%
2.
2022 2021 1976
2021 12 IFR 2020
38.4
2022 0.5% 16.84
19.8% IFR
246 / 2015 49 /
5 255 /
390 / 932
/ 2012 2017
2018 2020
2022
2022
2022
1 2001 2020 /
2022
-
Wind
www.lhratings.com 9
2022 4 28 A
370 1.84
A 28
12% 24% 36% 1388 2012 2017
A
ROE ROA
2018
75% 2019
ROE ROA
2 2012 2021 A
Wind
2. KUKA
ABB
A
ABB
www.lhratings.com 10
2021
2021
A
-U 1:1
3 A
RV
Nabtesco
Harmonic Drive
2010
2015
2020
2022
-U
3.
2010
2020
2021
2020
3 2010 4 2010
/ %
Wind Wind
www.lhratings.com 11
4.
4
/ /
2015 5
2025
2016 12 2016-
2020
2017 4
10
2019
2019 3
2025
2021 12 2035
5.
2018
2018
2019 12 3.10% 2020
2021
www.lhratings.com 12
5 2018
Wind
40%
Wind
1. 25%~30%
2021 10.23
17.11%
9.31% 8.09% 5.61% 4.89%
FFS
2.
www.lhratings.com 13
1997 9 2010 8
2021 354
24.67% 318
2021
1435
5 2021
696 118
80 549
460 392
34 376
2021
165 -- --
62 7 55
1435 1435
8
4.
912301991276005724 2022 3 4
/
2022 4 29
3.
1.
www.lhratings.com 14
1 3 1
2020
1 4
22.11% 2020 1 1
12 1.75
17.11% 2021
2.
5G
2021
17.11%
9.31% 8.09% 5.61% 4.89%
27.90%
2
11
4 6 2021
3 2
1
www.lhratings.com 15
-
1.
2019 2021
2019 2021
7 2019 2021
2019 2020 2021 2021
% % % % % % % %
7.20 49.35 47.93 9.84 53.83 43.26 12.66 59.94 39.72 28.71 32.59
4.60 31.52 33.14 5.69 31.13 28.41 6.15 29.11 28.89 8.09 15.62
2.79 19.13 39.60 2.75 15.04 65.52 2.31 10.95 55.65 -15.83 -8.96
14.60 100.00 41.68 18.28 100.00 41.98 21.13 100.00 38.31 15.59 20.31
6 2019 2021
2021
2019 2021
2019 2021
2021
15.83%
2019 2021
2021
2019 2021
3.67
2019 2021
www.lhratings.com 16
2021 3.54 2.
2019 2021
2021 0.48 2019 2021
2020
25.92 2021 9.87
8
FFS
1
2019 2021
2021
2019 2021
2
7.42 6.94 7.53
50
2019 2021
32.59%
41.46% 2021
PLC
2021 PLC
2021
www.lhratings.com 17
76.62% 6.63
6
18 2021
2019 2021
21.62% 20.25% 20.38%
7 2019 2021
3:3:3:1 30%
30% 30%
10%
2021
9.16 16.35 13.36
2
2019
2021
2019 2021 1000
2021
3.
2019 2021
2019 2021
FFS
42.62% 52.03% 45.65% 2019 2021
www.lhratings.com 18
20.59% P&P
Industries AG P&P ,
2021
83.03%
9 2019 2021
2019 2020 2021
3.51 4.15 5.11
1.09 1.54 1.04
4.60 5.69 6.15
4.
Topsoil
2019 2021
2019 2021
2021
15.83%
10 2021
2021
0%-
2021/10/14 8 / 5255.58 0.00 5255.58
10%
2 10 /
2020/10/17 7466.00 0.00 7466.00
40%-50%
18 /
2020/3/24 4355.85 0.00 4355.85
20%-30%
2019/5/15 4257.94 0.00 4257.94
60%~70%
3
2018/12/25 4989.03 4860.04 0.00
90%~100%
2018/4/3 3 / 4143.00 722.92 0.00
90%~100%
10 /
2018/3/27 10566.00 0.00 10566.00
80%~90%
-- 4859.45 0.00 715.50
100%
-- 4698.00 1071.37 0.00
100%
-- 3 / 4127.00 4052.92 0.00
100%
P&P Industries AG
www.lhratings.com 19
5.
2019 2021
2019 2021
11 2021
ROA ROE
% % %
42.82 20.47 3.67 37.66 11.82 29.69 0.56 0.81 5.50
111.06 32.98 -5.56 7.57 -5.12 -12.60 0.30 0.92 3.64
69.90 30.20 1.57 32.54 3.59 5.64 0.48 2.77 4.42
56.40 38.27 1.95 33.60 4.50 9.30 0.77 1.47 2.53
49.02 21.13 5.20 38.31 12.62 18.00 0.45 0.83 3.05
Wind
Wind
6.
2022 2024 0.55 0.65
0.40 2024
2014 2016
2018
1
2
3
4
5
www.lhratings.com 20
1.68 2021 21.13
6.03
1. 2022 3
2019 2021 51.67 32.33
1.67 2022 1 3
5.04 1.76
2019 2.
6 1 2020 2019 2021
2021 10
2020 3 1 0
2019 2021
2021 49.02 10.14%
30.48
12 2019 2021
2019 2020 2021 2021
% % % %
33.04 81.76 37.95 82.93 40.75 83.13 7.37
1.44 3.56 1.15 2.51 2.94 5.99 155.49
5.67 14.04 9.26 20.23 8.46 17.25 -8.66
7.32 18.12 11.49 25.10 9.16 18.69 -20.25
14.11 34.91 15.11 33.01 16.35 33.35 8.19
7.37 18.24 7.81 17.07 8.27 16.87 5.81
3.00 7.43 3.44 7.52 3.69 7.53 7.22
2.02 4.99 2.36 5.15 2.28 4.64 -3.42
40.41 100.00 45.77 100.00 49.02 100.00 7.10
1 2019 2021
2019 2021 6.58% 2021
11.06%
2019 2021
42.91% 2021 2019 2021
20.96% 2020
318.60
1.08% 2021
2019 2021
22.07% 2021 1 1.64
1.58
19.21%
www.lhratings.com 21
2019 2021 5.51%
7.65% 2021
31.06% 35.51% 5.84% 48.33%
48.99%
0.14 0.88% 2022 3 32.33
2 6.09%
2019 2021
5.91% 2
2019 2021 2019 2021
10.82% 2021
2019 2021
5.43% 2021
2019 2021 18.54 0.39%
6.20% 2021 85.68%
72.03% 8 2021
17.40% 2.15
51.46%
2021 0.35
13 2021
318.60
2792.80
407.15
3518.55 --
2022 3
2019 2021
51.67 5.40%
14.67% 2021
83.29% 16.71%
1.70 3.97%
1
3. 2020
1
2019 2021 2020 13.36
2020 2021
5.86% 2021
2019 2021 11.84 16.32%
13.33% 2021 2021
30.48 12.24% 2.33
94.49%
www.lhratings.com 22
9 2019 2021 2019 2021
20.49%
14.01% 13.47% 2020
2021
2.85 11.13%
30.05% 39.09% 31.18%
2019 2021
23.89%
10 2019 2021
% 5.58%
2019 2021
0.28 0.30 0.31
14 2019 2021
%
2021
2019 2020 2021
14.60 18.28 21.13 15.59
8.51 10.61 13.03 22.90
2.99 2.56 2.85 11.13
0.35 0.44 0.54 20.28
2019 2021
0.64 0.38 0.72 89.74
2021
3.83 5.54 6.03 8.70
0.41
3.28 4.70 5.20 10.65
2022 3 19.33
4.28%
2022 3
11 2019 2021
0.33 18.60%
4.
2019 2021
2019 2021
20.31% 25.45%
www.lhratings.com 23
2019 2021 2019 2021
11 2022 1 3
2022 1 3 5.04 0.56 0.49
7.69% 1.76 0.11 0.94
3.47%
5. 6.
2019 2021 2019 2021
15 2019 2021 16
% 2019 2020 2021
2021
2019 2020 2021 % 205.12 208.62 256.54
18.25 15.41 21.96 42.52 % 117.55 125.57 153.64
14.73 13.94 17.96 28.87
/ % 21.88 8.08 25.17
3.52 1.47 4.00 171.94
/ 14.96 4.28 9.82
19.22 28.82 32.72 13.54
22.29 28.67 32.63 13.81 41.35 43.41 33.62
-3.06 0.15 0.09 -38.32 EBITDA 4.14 5.86 6.37
0.46 1.62 4.09 152.50 /EBITDA 0.13 0.08 0.06
0.09 0.20 0.25 27.15
/ 6.70 2.98 9.73
1.09 2.12 2.53 19.60
EBITDA/ 235.03 339.07 425.31
-1.00 -1.92 -2.28 18.81
-0.55 -0.30 1.81 152.44 / 199.94 85.08 267.02
% 117.86 81.33 99.84 18.51
2019 2021
2019 2021 2020
2020
58.28%
2022
2021 254.32%
156.41%
2019 2021
2019 2021 EBITDA
2021
1.50
2019 2021 1500.00
1500.00
www.lhratings.com 24
P&P 2.50 1.
2021 4.50
2021
4.50 0.41
2022 3 4.91
5.96 1.22
A 2021
7. 37.82% 1.33% 0.01% 43.05%
13.88% 12.87%
2.
2021 14.48
2019 2021
3.22
12.21% 2021
2021
43.21 10.22%
EBITDA
81.92% 18.08%
2021
27.70 11.08% 17
36.92% 6.08% 2021
* 4.50
46.79% 9.23%
/ 4.88
2021 15.51
/ 0.89
8.71% /EBITDA 0.71
91.43% 2021 41.04
2021 17.77
5.27
0.60
2021
4.22
AA AA
-0.06 -2.05
www.lhratings.com 25
1-1 2021
Wind
1-2 2021
www.lhratings.com 26
1-3 2021
%
--
10300.00 51.00
10%
www.lhratings.com 27
2-1
2019 2020 2021 2022 3
9.74 14.92 14.48 16.17
40.41 45.77 49.02 51.67
23.73 27.16 30.48 32.33
0.24 0.34 0.41 0.32
0.29 0.15 0.00 0.01
0.53 0.49 0.41 0.33
14.60 18.28 21.13 5.04
3.83 5.54 6.03 1.76
EBITDA 4.14 5.86 6.37 --
3.52 1.47 4.00 0.56
2.05 1.94 1.97 --
0.68 0.73 0.83 --
0.39 0.42 0.45 --
% 117.86 81.33 99.84 102.01
% 40.65 41.11 37.44 38.44
% 13.58 17.06 16.88 --
% 13.81 17.30 17.06 --
% 1.21 0.55 0.01 0.03
% 2.17 1.79 1.33 1.02
% 41.27 40.67 37.82 37.42
% 205.12 208.62 256.54 254.32
% 117.55 125.57 153.64 156.41
% 21.88 8.08 25.17 --
41.35 43.41 35.56 49.89
EBITDA 235.03 339.07 425.31 --
/EBITDA 0.13 0.08 0.06 --
2022
www.lhratings.com 28
2-2
2019 2020 2021 2022 3
7.52 12.86 12.89 --
34.32 39.20 43.21 --
22.76 24.93 27.70 --
0.00 0.00 0.00 --
0.00 0.00 0.01 --
0.00 0.00 0.01 --
10.88 14.00 17.77 --
3.24 3.98 5.27 --
EBITDA -- -- -- --
3.17 1.60 4.22 --
1.69 1.66 1.85 --
0.62 0.71 0.87 --
0.35 0.38 0.43 --
% 125.56 88.45 103.77 --
% 41.72 37.60 35.04 --
% 12.40 13.92 16.59 --
% 12.40 13.92 16.59 --
% 0.00 0.00 0.02 --
% 0.01 0.00 0.03 --
% 33.69 36.40 35.90 --
% 245.09 228.92 249.57 --
% 141.72 139.20 153.27 --
% 27.98 11.38 29.72 --
4,788.72 * 6,406.44 --
EBITDA -- -- -- --
/EBITDA -- -- -- --
2020 0 2022
www.lhratings.com 29
3
1 2 = - / 100%
2 n =[ / n ^ 1/ n-1 -1] 100%
/ + +
/
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/ 100%
+ / + + 100%
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EBITDA EBITDA/
/ EBITDA / EBITDA
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/
= + + +
= + + + +
= + + +
= +
EBITDA= + + + +
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www.lhratings.com 30
4-1
AAA AA A BBB BB B
CCC CC C AAA CCC + -
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
CC
C
4-2
4-3
www.lhratings.com 31
www.lhratings.com 32