2 6 —
/
2017
2016
Gardner Gardner
“ ” 132 D2P
Gardner 8
Broughton Brought
Gardner Mazères
2016
68%
Gardner
Gardner
/
/
A320 A330 A350 A380
2016 3 Airbus N108 forecast
2017 2018 2019 2020
N108
A320 600 662 724 720
A330 78 80 99 120
A350 100 129 151 n/a
A380 18 20 19 n/a
Gardner
FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
A320 604 661 724 745
A330 81 84 102 115
A350 93 118 142 148
A380 17 13 14 16
FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
A320 0.7% (0.2%) (0.0%) 3.5%
A330 3.8% 5.0% 2.7% (3.9%)
A350 (6.8%) (8.4%) (5.7%) -
A380 (4.2%) (34.0%) (24.2%) -
A350 2017 100 2019 151
Gardner 2017
93 2020 148 Gardner
FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
93 118 142 148
74 101 117 119
A330 2017 78 2020 120
Gardner 2017
81 2020 115 Gardner
FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
81 84 102 115
7 8 12 14
A320 2017 600 2020 720
Gardner 2017
604 2020 745 Gardner
FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
604 661 724 745
25 26 28 29
A380 2017 2018 2020
Gardner
2017 17 2020 16 Gardner
FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
17 13 14 16
12 9 10 11
FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
118 144 167 173
68.64% 72.91% 73.69% 73.82%
Gardner
Gardner
FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
23.30 23.09 21.50 21.80 23.30 23.90
ATR 72 Aubert&Duval 2016
3.56 2019 13.5 2020
ATR72 2018
2020 5.5 Aubert&Duval
2019 12 3
2016
2016 9-10
Gardner
2017 2016
A350 2016 76 2017 104
Gardner 2016 61 2017 93
A350 2016 47.52 2017 78
Gardner
50k
75
25
FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
27.35% 29.29% 29.05% 29.62% 30.64% 31.34%
FY15 FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F FY20F
12.08% 10.35% 10.99% 7.80% 7.02% 6.87%
14.80 13.68 18.90 15.40 15.90 16.10
2016 10
2017 2016 A350
beta
1
WACC
E D
WACC Ke Kd 1 t
D E D E
WACC
E
D
Ke
Kd
t
WACC Ke
CAPM
Ke Rf MRP Rc
Ke
Rf
β β
MRP
Rc
2
iFinD 30
2.58% 2.58%
3
= -
1950 -2016 500 8.59%
6.01%
4 β
β 500
Y=a+β(X) β
500 2014 10 31 -
2016 10 31 http://finance.yahoo.com/
β βL βL
β (βU) βU βL/ [1+(1-T)×D/E] 6 βU
βU
/ Beta
[ ]
[ ] 500 beta
[ ]
2016-10-31
2016
Zodiac Aerospace
1 0.1720 27% 0.7265 0.6455
(ENXTPA:ZC)
Spirit AeroSystems Holdings,
2 0.0669 29% 1.0446 0.9972
Inc. (NYSE:SPR)
Triumph Group, Inc.
3 1.3485 32% 1.1492 0.5995
(NYSE:TGI)
4 Senior plc (LSE:SNR) 0.2836 23% 0.5677 0.4659
Ducommun Incorporated
5 0.7861 24% 1.1189 0.7004
(NYSE:DCO)
Magellan Aerospace
6 0.1855 20% 0.5841 0.5086
Corporation (TSX:MAL)
0.4738 0.8652 0.6529
0.2346 0.8856 0.6225
D/E
βL βL βU×[1+(1-T)×D/E]
5
2.0%
6
2016 10 31
23.41
8.93
5.19
2.37
3.66
2.04
45.60
1.10% 2.25% 2.25% 3.80%
3% D/E
E D
WACC Ke Kd 1 t
D E D E
WACC
Nov
2016F/Aug FY18F FY19F FY20F
2017F
1 (rf) 2.58% 2.58% 2.58% 2.58% 2.58%
2 6.01% 6.01% 6.01% 6.01% 6.01%
3 0.6225 0.6225 0.6225 0.6225 0.6225
beta
4 D/E 47.38% 47.38% 47.38% 47.38% 47.38%
5 beta 1.2124 1.2183 1.2183 1.2212 1.2212
6 7.29% 7.32% 7.32% 7.34% 7.34%
7 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
8 11.87% 11.90% 11.90% 11.92% 11.92%
9 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
10 28.00% 26.00% 26.00% 25.00% 25.00%
11 wacc 8.75% 8.77% 8.77% 8.78% 8.78%
2016 10 31 -2010 8 31 2020 8
31
2016 3 Airbus N108 forecast
2020
2017 2016
3 26 6 —
18
—
1 /
2 /
P/B
P/B Q
3 /
P/S
P/S
“One Gardner ”
EV/EBITDA PS
EV/EBITDA PS × EBITDA
= + -
PS= TEV/LTM Total Revenue
EV/EBITDA= TEV/LTM EBITDA
TEV
EV/EBITDA PS— / /
LTM— 12
Capital IQ 2015 18
PS EV/EBITDA
(m)
e2v Technologies Teledyne
2016-12 GBR 620 2.7x 12.6x
plc Technologies Inc.
2016-10 B/E Aerospace Rockwell Collins GBR 6400 2.9x 13.6x
Sigma Precision Silverfleet Capital
2016-05 GBR 65 1.9x 14.1x
Components Ltd. Partners
API Technologies
2016-05 J.F. Lehman & Co. USA 305 1.3x 13.5x
Corp.
Liberty Hall
2016-02 AIM Aerospace USA 220 -- 9.0x
Capital Partners
Harris Corp’s
Albany
2016-02 Composite Aero- USA 210 2.5x 14.0x
International Corp.
structures Division
Handy & Harman
2016-02 SL Industries Inc. USA 145 0.7x 10.2x
Ltd
2015-12 Aero Stanrew Ltd. TT Electronics plc GBR 42 2.6x 13.2x
PS EV/EBITDA
(m)
Steico Industries,
2015-11 Senior plc USA 75 2.0x 11.4x
Inc.
EDAC Composites Meggitt Polymers
2015-09 USA 340 3.3x 12.5x
LLC & Composites Ltd
Gebr. Reinfurt Kaman Aerospace
2015-09 GER 149 2.9x 13.0x
GmbH & Co. KG Group, Inc.
Precision Castparts Berkshire
2015-08 USA 36565 3.7x 12.7x
Corp. Hathaway Inc.
Composites
2015-08 Business (Cobham Meggit plc GBR 200 2.5x 10.0x
plc)
Fokker
2015-07 Technologies Group GKN plc NED 706 0.9x 9.3x
BV
Franke Aquarotter TransDigm Group
2015-04 GER 75 1.7x 8.3x
GmbH Incorporated
Lymington
2015-04 Precision Engineers Senior plc GBR 43 1.1x 6.5x
Co. Ltd.
RTI International
2015-03 Alcoa Inc. USA 1389 1.8x 12.0x
Metals, Inc.
Sargent Aerospace
2015-03 RBC Bearings USA 500 -- 13.3x
&Defence
2.25x 12.55x
4
Gardner
PCC GKN Triumph Magellon Aerospace
“ — ” Gardner
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Gardner Tier 1
D2P 132
D2P Gardner
Gardner
2014-2033 4.70% 100
31,400 4.6 2014
18,500 2033 37,500 19,000
12,400 2033
33% 63%
10
20
Gardner
Gardner
Gardner
Gardner