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上实发展:2020年公开发行公司债券(第一期)信用评级报告2020-04-23  

						                                                  CCXI-20201054D-01




                                           2020




                       pzhou@ccxi.com.cn

                       njdu@ccxi.com.cn

       (010)66428877

       (010)66426100

2020    4   10
                                           China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co.,Ltd.




                  www.ccxi.com.cn




www.ccxi.com.cn   2
                                    2020
                                                                          China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co.,Ltd.




                                                                                   [2020]




     “                                                      2020
”

                                                        AA+
                    AA+




                                                    2         SOHO6
               100010            8610   6642 8877            8610   6642 6100
          Building 6, Galaxy SOHO, No.2 Nanzhuganhutong,ChaoyangmenneiAvenue,
          Dongcheng District,Beijing, 100010
                                                                                                                             China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co.,Ltd.




                                                                                         5             3
                                                 8
                                            8


                                                                                                                                                          AA+
                   “                                     2020                                                   ”                      AA   +




                                            2017            2018          2019
                                             392.02         374.32         399.41
                                             115.55         113.45         120.46
                                             276.47         260.87         278.95                                             A
                                             150.65         149.67         160.14
                                              73.41          86.64          88.66
                                               9.20           9.25           9.14
EBITDA                                        18.09          18.66          17.84
                                               6.91          20.48           2.11
           %                                  31.83          30.03          33.74
         %                                    48.93          76.28          79.23
     /EBITDA X                                 8.33           8.02           8.98
EBITDA                         X               2.84           2.70           2.33
                        2017     ~2019                                                                                   2019                                    22.41%




                                                                                               12~18




                                                     2019
                                                                                                                                                                    /
                                                                                                                                     /
                                                                                              %             %                      (X)              (X)
                                                                                                                                                                   X
                        604.44           61.80                        85.84                  60.65         14.21              1.68                0.16              -

                        483.49           75.35                        104.53                 65.45         17.86              5.11                0.23            2.35

                        399.41           78.89                        88.66                  79.23         10.31              0.75                0.25            1.58
  “     ”       “                                 ”                       00563.HK
              /                                                  “            ”   “                      ”                 600675.SH                        2019




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                                                                                                                                      2019



                             “               ”                                                         2020
                                                     “          ”
                                                                                                  2019
                                                    “          ”          2002
9              25
                                                              2002      12         30




2011                7


“                                ”
                                                                                                                                 “    ”
                                       “                ”



                                                                                                                                       PPI
                                                                                                                      CPI

                                             2019
                                        48.60%
                                                                             “
                        ”                                                                                         2020
          “                      ”                                                     “         ”
      56.18%



          2019                                                         18
2019                4                       8.9
      8                           8                                     5
          3




                                                                                                            2019     12
                                                                                                                          2020        “ ”
                                                                                  2019
                                                                      6.1%


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                                                                                                           2020
                                                                               2019
                                                       17.16                            0.1%


                                15.97                               6.5%              5.7
                   LPR
                                                                       2019      70
                                                                                 2018        8
                                        1.49%                                 2019     12
                                0.35%

                                            1
                                                                                                 %




                         2020




                                                                      2019
                                            4.98                                      4.9%




                                                          2019
                                           “                  ”




                                                                      2019
2019




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                                                2020
                    2019
                                                         2019     5
                                                                      1


                                                                                                  2~3
                            9.9%     13.22
                      13.9%       9.71
         2

                                               %




                                                                          2019         TOP 3
                    11.4%     8.7%           2019
                                                                                     0.3             TOP 4~10 TOP
                                     22.72
                                                    11~30
        8.5%                8.7
    3
                                                             TOP 30
                                              %



                                                                                       2019       TOP 31~50      TOP
                                                    51~100
                                                             1 2017~2019
                                                                                      2017        2018        2019
                                                    TOP 3                                  9.4%    9.8%        9.5%
                                                    TOP 10                             19.5%       21.3%      21.4%
                                                    TOP 30                             31.0%       35.1%      35.7%
                                                    TOP 50                             37.3%       43.4%      43.5%



5              23                                                                8
                              7




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                                                                          2020
TOP 100               46.1%    53.7%          53.0%                                6.27          7.53            8.02
                                                                                   2.90          3.71            4.06
                                                                                        -             -          0.24
                                                                                   0.42          0.57            0.46
                                                                                  73.41         86.64           88.66
                                                                               2017           2018           2019
                                                                                71.47%         58.73%         69.30%
                                                                                15.46%         27.66%         16.28%
                                                                                 8.54%          8.69%          9.05%
                                                                                 3.95%          4.28%          4.58%
                                                                                        -             -        0.27%
                                                                                 0.57%          0.66%          0.52%
                                                                               100.00%       100.00%         100.00%




                                        “     ”


                                                            2003
                                                                 2007


                                                                                      23




                                                                                                          
                                                                 




2020


                                                                         2019
                                                       36.23%                               25.10% 2019
                                                                    2
                                                                                2019
                                                       230.06


                                                             3

          2                                                                     2017          2018           2019
                   2017       2018           2019                              154.00         69.00          44.00
                     52.47      50.88          61.44                            51.41         50.47          37.84
                     11.35      23.96          14.43



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                                                                        2020
                               275.98               226.82            230.06



                                                                                                     2017                                                  21.97


                                                      2019                                                        8.97
                                                                                  24,462      /                 2018                                        2019
                                                                                                                                                     3
                 67.11                                                                                                                           BSPO-0104
       4
                                     /
                                                                                           MHPO-1403
                                         2017          2018            2019
                                            26.38            27.24        39.50
                                            53.04            52.50        78.89                   2019
                                     20,106.14        19,273.13       19,972.15   21.60
                                                                                       6
                                                                                                                       /
                                                                                                                           2017           2018            2019
                                                                                                                                  1              0                3
               33.74             19.43                  16.13                                                                8.97                0         21.60
8.09                          2019
                                                                                                                             8.97                0         15.57
98.10%
                                                                                                                            21.97                0         33.11
           5
                                                                                                                            21.97                0         30.03

                                                                                                                           24,462                0        19,288
                          2018                                 2019


                                          7.47          33.74             8.93
                                                                                                  2019
                   16.17

                       3.65               2.44          19.43            15.22                     255.57
                   13.86                  5.86          16.13             8.25                                         219.74
                   10.70                  7.51           8.09             5.61

                       0.98               0.67           0.98             0.66                89.53%
                       1.03               0.89           0.28             0.50

                       1.23               0.62           0.24             0.33
                                                                                       7          2019
                       4.95               1.78           0.00             0.00

                   52.57                 27.24          78.89            39.50


                                                                                                            74.60                 27.65                  102.25
                                                                                                            76.56                     -                   76.56

2019                                                                                                        50.00                     -                   50.00
                                                                                                            17.80                     -                   17.80
                                                                                                                8.97                  -                    8.97
                                                                                                           227.92                 27.65                  255.57




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                                                                                                         2020
                                                                                  2017~2019
                                                                         11.35          23.96   14.43
                                                                  2019




2019                                                 47.00




2017~2019                                             2.90
    3.71           4.06


2019                                                                1+3+X

                                                     2,439




                                 “        ”
                                                “           ”




                          2019


                  30                  34
2,500              2017~2019
           6.27           7.53         8.02




                                       2016
                                                        2019
                            69.78%




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                                                                                 2020
                                                       8                                        (%)
                                                                  2017           2018             2019
                  156                                               34.85          37.46               38.39
                                                                    20.24          13.04               17.66
                                                                    16.00          15.05               11.54
                                                                    59.40          68.20               66.38
                                                                         -                -            69.35
                                                                    31.83          30.03               33.74



                                                2019




                                           2019                                   16.15
                                                             31.21%                             0.47


                                                                      2019




                                                  2019
    2017~2019
                            2017    2018
                        2018~2019

                                                                                 2019         EBITDA




                                                  9                                               %
                                                                      2017         2018               2019
                                                                          2.19          1.63            1.72
                                                                          3.29          3.61            4.08
                                                                          2.30          2.52            1.93
                                    2017                                 10.61          8.95            8.72
                                                                          9.41      12.43              16.62
                                                                         -1.30          -0.26           -2.54
                                    2019                                  0.03          0.34            0.47
                        86.75                                             3.66          -0.11           -0.45
                                                                          0.30          0.66            0.09
                                                                         12.08      12.73              13.44




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                                                           2020
 EBITDA                    18.09    18.66     17.84
                            9.20     9.25      9.14
                            8.46     8.07      7.82
                                                                                                                      2018


                                                                                                     5.18




                                                           10                                                                %
                                                                                    2017             2018              2019
                                                                                      94.11             63.13              64.70
                                                                                      20.41              3.51               4.03
                                                                                     198.76            234.81           239.35
                                            2018                                      40.67             40.12              45.46
                                                                                      13.00             11.99              10.06
                                                                                      19.94             11.35              14.71
                                                                                      83.54             80.02              86.75
                  22.769                                                              42.74             47.90              55.03
                                                                                      31.89             25.97              26.01
                                                                                     115.55            113.45           120.46
                                   2018                                               15.60             13.57              14.78
                                                                                      70.52             69.69               69.84
                                                                                      48.93             76.28               79.23




                                                                                                                     2018
                                                                                    70%                                 80%




                                                            2018
2019




                                                                11                                                     %
                                                                                              2017          2018        2019
                                                                     /                         86.73         86.28         83.79
                                      1~2
                                                            /                                  58.46         72.71         71.52
                                                                     /                         27.68         19.55         19.33
                                                                         /                      6.00          1.09          1.21
  0.28                                                          +             /
                                                                                               86.14         92.25         90.86

                                                                                               35.04         67.63         53.65
                                                                     /                         17.63         28.80         22.41



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                                                                             2020
                                            152.30     158.24    180.90                                       84.06         93.95      112.55
         /                                   76.63      67.39     75.58
                                                                                                              24.76         26.44       17.30
                                                                                                              29.90         17.96       17.99
                                                                                                              11.93         11.33       12.30
                                                                                                             150.65        149.67      160.14
                                  2019
         53.65                                          22.41%
                                                  C8-2                                                                         EBITDA




                                                                                           2019


                                              2019
                                                                           14                                                          X %
                                                                                                               2017         2018        2019
                  12
                                                                                                                   6.91      20.48        2.11
                                     2017            2018       2019
                                                                                                                 85.92       99.67      101.62
                  /                  0.27            0.28        0.25                                             1.97        1.02        0.75
                                                                                      /
                       /             0.20            0.23        0.23                                           150.65      149.67      160.14
                                                                                      /                            31.74      41.54      53.55
                                                                                  /EBITDA                          8.33        8.02       8.98
                                                                                                 /                 0.05        0.14       0.01
                                                                                  /
                                                                                                                    1.75       1.50       1.58




2019                                          2.11                                        2019
  89.71%                                                                                                                               181.49
                                                                                                            43.07
                                                      2017~2019                                         A
       85.92                 99.67              101.62


                                                                                          2019                                        31.31
                                                                                          3.22
                           2019                                           11.45                             10.73
         53.55%                                                                            5.91
             13                                                                                                7.84%
                                         2017         2018       2019
                                                                                                            2019
                                         108.82        120.38    129.85



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                                                                                                 2020
       2.47




                                                                                     2019
                        24,700                                           1,749.42
                                                        728.05               2019
2020     3                                               323.45
          2019




                     2016~2019    12    31




                                                                              AA+
                                                   “                               2020
                                                                        ”                  AA+




                                   00363.HK




                    00363.HK     1996   5




        600748.SH
   00563.HK


                         BHK SGX 807 HKSE




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      2020




                                      6




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                               2020   4   10




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                              2019




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                       2020
                                                                2017                     2018               2019
                                                                  941,062.98               631,277.15         647,038.85
                                                                  204,091.29                35,095.03          40,349.53
                                                                 1,987,580.34             2,348,148.30       2,393,487.73
                                                                   70,899.17                66,481.49          29,879.75
                                                                       9,757.82             13,068.37          87,816.55
                                                                              -                         -                  -
                                                                       4,559.63                 2,886.05           1,778.16
                                                                  406,708.48               401,216.73         454,631.21
                                                                 3,920,197.53             3,743,200.08       3,994,082.73
                                                                  835,399.77               800,237.68         867,533.18
                                                                  199,395.38               113,463.85         147,090.00
                                                                  478,080.55               621,725.22         857,536.41
                                                                 1,028,378.32              874,973.17         743,850.30
                                                                 1,506,458.87             1,496,698.39       1,601,386.72
                                                                  565,395.89               865,421.24         954,347.87
                                                                 2,764,706.71             2,608,684.73       2,789,516.97
                                                                   44,286.18                42,572.33          24,274.80
                                                                   19,508.64                26,457.59          52,215.67
                                                                 1,155,490.82             1,134,515.35       1,204,565.76
                                                                  734,126.82               866,375.24         886,555.59
                                                                   94,113.85               124,341.43         166,222.69
                                                                   36,622.35                    -1,065.19          -4,486.58
                                                                   92,023.21                92,450.24          91,447.67
EBIT                                                              165,063.87               169,903.49         158,709.32
EBITDA                                                            180,930.71               186,584.18         178,373.83
                                                                  859,210.01               996,731.51        1,016,180.57
                                                                   69,053.14               204,750.32          21,064.42
                                                                   11,446.67                -93,458.58         -35,638.21
                                                                  -183,579.95              -416,916.67         33,117.38
                                                                2017                     2018               2019
                  %                                                      31.83                     30.03              33.74
                  %                                                      10.61                      8.95               8.72
EBITDA                    %                                              24.65                     21.54              20.12
              %                                                          12.54                     10.67              10.31
                      %                                                    4.45                     4.43               4.10
              (X                                                           0.27                     0.28               0.25
                  %                                                      70.52                     69.69              69.84
                      %                                                  56.59                     56.88              57.07
              %                                                          48.93                     76.28              79.23
          /               %                                                0.32                     0.42               0.54
                          /           X                                    0.05                     0.14               0.01
                          /               X                                0.14                     0.33               0.02
                          /               X                                1.08                     2.97               0.28
       /                                      X                            1.75                     1.50               1.58
       /EBITDA X                                                           8.33                     8.02               8.98
EBITDA/                       X                                            0.38                     0.30               0.21
EBITDA                            X                                        2.84                     2.70               2.33
       EBIT                           X                                    2.89                     2.84               2.76
  1                                               2 2017                       2018                 3




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                                                                                  2020
                                        =                            +                          +
                                        =           +                                                                 /       +
                                            +                                      +
                                        =           +                 +
                                        =           +
                                        =       -
                                        =       /
                                        =           /
                                        =       /                +
                                        =           /
                                        =               /
                                        =                   —                )/
                                        =               +                 +                 +           /
                                        =               -                 -                 -                 -   -       -
                                                            -                      -                -        -        +
                 EBIT                   =        +
                      EBIT              =EBIT+
                 EBITDA                 =EBIT+     +                           +
                                        =EBIT/
                                        =      /
                                        =      /
                                        =

                                        =        /
                                        =          -                  /
                                        =                       +
                 EBITDA                 =EBITDA/
                      EBIT              =     EBIT/
       “                                                                                                   ”
                         2018                                    [2018]15
“          =      +            +   +                           +                      ”




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                                                                                                2020
        AAA
          AA
          A
        BBB
          BB
          B
        CCC
          CC
          C
    AAA         CCC   “   ” “ ”



        AAA
          AA
          A
        BBB
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          B
        CCC
          CC
          C
    AAA         CCC   “   ” “ ”



          A-1
          A-2
          A-3
          B
          C
          D




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                                           2020
                                     2020 267
2020   2   25
                2020   2        26
                           “         ”


                       2        26




                                           2020   4   10
此件与原件一致,仅限 上海实
业发展股份有限公司2020年公
开发行公司债券(第一期)使
用,再次复印无效。