金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
Waiyin Karen Li

摩根大通

研究方向:

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工作经历:

20日
短线
60日
中线
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最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
兖州煤业 能源行业 2014-03-25 6.43 2.31 -- 6.74 4.82%
8.03 24.88%
详细
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) reported FY13 that beat expectations, as its principalShandong operations staged a solid 2H13 performance. While coal marketsremain depressed, we see limited downside at current levels. With consensusupgrades likely, in our view, and YZC shares trading near historical lows, weview favorable risk-reward and upgrade to OW rating. FY13 results above guidance. YZC reported FY13 NPAT of RMB777munder IFRS (-87% yoy). Excluding forex losses and asset impairment(pretax RMB3.3Bn), we estimate core NPAT of RMB3.4Bn, -8% yoy,ahead of estimates (JPMe: RMB2.6Bn, Street; RMB1.0Bn). Better-thanexpectedcost reduction (-8% yoy, JPMe -7%) and coal sales volume (+12%yoy, JPMe +5%) helped cushion ASP falls (-13% yoy). Pleasingly, YZC’sprincipal Shandong operations (76% of 2013 GP) performed strongly in2H13, with GP of Rmb334/t, +33% hoh. That said, negative operating cashflow (-RMB2.2Bn, IFRS) and free cash flow (-RMB11.9Bn) pushed netgearing (ND/E) higher to 111% (2012: 63%). DPS of Rmb2 cents wasdeclared at a 13% payout ratio (2012: 29%). 2014 plan – +7% self produced coal sales, +3% capex. YZC believes theoversupplied situation is keeping coal prices at low levels. For 2014, YZCtargets stable coal sales (+1% yoy) with higher self produced coal sales(69Mt, +7% yoy) offset by lower coal trading with similar capex (+3% yoy).No cost target was provided. We keep our 2014 and 2015 forecastsunchanged, 88% and 72% above consensus, respectively. Upgrade to OW rating, keep price target at HKD8.00. Given the coreearnings beat, we expect consensus upgrades will likely provide near-termsupport for YZC shares. With YZC shares now trading near historical lowsat 0.5x PB, we see favorable risk-reward. In the near term, Daqin rail'soverhaul and IPP summer restocking in May-June should stabilize coalmarkets. Upgrade to OW rating (from N), keep PT Dec-14 at HKD8.00.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名