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兴业银行
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银行和金融服务
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2015-09-03
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14.50
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15.60
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29.92%
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15.26
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5.24% |
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17.26
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19.03% |
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详细
1H15 profit was RMB27.7bn, up 8% y-o-y, with 2Q15 +5% y-o-y and 1Q15 +11%. 1H15 comprised 54% of our FY15e profit (1H14 was 54% of FY14). What we liked: (i) Strong net interest income growth of 22% y-o-y in 1H15 is faster thanmost reported peers, driven by the fast rise in non-standard credit assets (rose by 7ppt h-ohto 33% of assets). Management said they are utilizing cheaper interbank liabilities tofund investment opportunities in 2Q (note 7D repo rate fell from 4.4% in 1Q to 2.5% in2Q), but expect the growth to slow down in 2H; (ii) Fee growth trended faster to 26% y-oyin 2Q from 4% in 1Q. Consultancy fees (+29% y-o-y in 1H) and credit guarantee fees(+62% y-o-y) are the key drivers. What we disliked: (i) Overdue loan ratio rose 112bp h-o-h to 3.37% (overdue <90Dloans +21bp to 1.44%), with the special mention loan ratio up 92bp h-o-h to 2.73%, bothfaster than peers, indicating larger pressure in NPL rise going forward; (ii) Demanddeposit mix fell 6.2ppt h-o-h to 41.2%. Other points of interest: (i) NPL ratio rose 5bp q-o-q to 1.29% in 2Q, slower than 1Q’s14bp rise. The write-off adjusted NPL ratio rose 64bp h-o-h to 1.74%. 1H credit costreached 160bp (+37bp y-o-y). Loan loss reserve ratio was stable at 2.85% (+3bp h-o-h)and NPL coverage was slightly down 6ppt to 221%; (ii) 1H cost income ratio slightly up22bp y-o-y to 29.0%; (iii) Net interest margin fell by 14bp q-o-q to 2.37% in 2Q (fasterthan 1bp fall in 1Q). Management sees 2H margin to trend mildly down as most repricingwere done in 2Q and loan-deposit spread has limited room for compression; (iv) Loan anddeposit growth was stable at 3% / 2% q-o-q in 2Q; (v) Core tier-1 ratio fell by 50bp q-o-qto 8.15%, due to the fast asset growth of 14% q-o-q in 2Q. Total tier-1 ratio rose by 3bp ho-h mainly due to the RMB12.9bn preference shares issuance which added 40bp. Maintain Buy rating on INDB with a TP of RMB23.90: We use a discounted GordonGrowth model to value INDB. See pg. 2 for valuation & risks.
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