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研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
东方创业 批发和零售贸易 2017-08-17 13.06 55.29 535.71% 14.96 14.55%
16.98 30.02%
详细
Multiple catalysts ahead; late-stage pipeline represents 17% market cap by DBe. We update pipeline progress following the meeting with Chairman Sun. Majorcatalysts are: 1) approval of 19K and Abraxane generic by YE17; 2) resubmissionof retagliptin in the near term; 3) clarity on pyrotinib development, includingan earlier submission of marketing approval; 4) updates on clinical progressfor camrelizumab; and 5) phase 3 data release on Incyte's ECHO-301. We alsohighlight potential upside from additional US IND approval and clinical progressof its novel compounds in the US. Our NPV analysis indicated the pipeline valueis RMB9.2 per share. This comprehensive report includes key ongoing clinicalstudies for all mid/late study compounds, as well as competitors' studies. Camrelizumab as the largest driver; IDO inhibitor provides significant upside. We have updated our peak sales for camrelizumab to RMB5-6bn in China andincreased the probability of success to 75-85%, based on the strong ORR datafrom the phase 1 study. Four registration trials are being conducted at present. We expect Hengrui to get the first domestic PD-1 approval, with safe data fromsufficient number of patients required by the CFDA. Additionally, we expect INDapproval for its IDO inhibitor from CFDA in the near term, following US INDapproval in May. We believe it would be significantly positive to the IO franchiseand we forecast RMB3-4bn peak sales for the IDO inhibitor. DB proprietary patient-based PD-1/PD-L1 model. Our model indicates that the addressable market for PD-1/PD-L1 would beRMB19bn in China in 2017 and RMB29bn in 2030, representing a CAGR of 15%. NSCLC and GC are likely to be the largest indications due to a large patient baseand unmet medical need. Our model is based on 14 tumor types, including theapproved indications and major indications being investigated. Among domesticnames, we identified six companies that are conducting late stage studies fortheir PD-1/PD-L1 with Hengrui being the leader. Valuation and risks. Our current valuation for the late stage pipeline represents 17% of the market cap,vs. 15% as of our first attempt in September 2016. Our TP of RMB58.5 is basedon 42x 2018E EPS. We believe 42x is justified, as A-share peers are trading at 29xwith 18% EPS growth in 2017 (vs. the 24% we model for Hengrui). We believethe premium is justified, given the top China pipeline, major upside from exportsand the potential earnings growth acceleration driven by blockbuster launches. Key risks include product launch delays and price cuts.
东方创业 批发和零售贸易 2010-12-17 10.49 -- -- 11.20 6.77%
11.20 6.77%
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名