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最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
工商银行 银行和金融服务 2014-07-29 3.53 -- -- 3.62 2.55%
3.62 2.55%
详细
News。 On July 25 ICBC announced plans to issue Rmb80bn of perpetual andnoncumulative preferred shares, pending shareholder and regulatoryapprovals. Key features include: (1) Rmb45bn/Rmb35bn of preferred shareswill be issued in the onshore/offshore markets; (2) private placement ofonshore shares to less than 200 investors and offshore shares to qualifiedoffshore investors; (3) dividend yield for onshore/offshore shares would beset by the China govt bond yield/undetermined benchmark rate plus a fixedpremium to be set upon issuance. The yield would either remainunchanged or be modified once per every agreed-upon period; (4)mandatory conversion to common equity if ICBC’s core tier I CAR fallsbelow 5.125%, and/or if regulators deem ICBC cannot survive if conversiondoes not happen. The conversion price would be Rmb3.44 per share (0.8XFY14E P/B) for onshore and is currently undetermined for offshore. Analysis。 We calculate the preferred share issuance would help raise ICBC’s tier ICAR by c.0.5pp/0.4pp in FY15/16, from our existing estimates of core tier ICAR of 10.6%/10.7%. Further, assuming proceeds generating 4pp yieldsand two scenarios of 6%/9% div yields (based on current rates), our proformaanalysis suggests the issuance would have a limited impact oncurrent dividends to common shareholders (we estimate the preferredshare dividends would represent c.4.5%/6.8% of total FY15E dividends), as:(1) proceeds from the issuance would generate interest income, potentiallyraising EPS by c.0.8%/0.6% in 2015E/16E; (2) to keep our current 2015Eforecast of common share DPS unchanged, we estimate ICBC would onlyneed to raise its dividend payout ratio from the current 35% by 1.3-2.1pp. Implications。 We maintain our Buy rating on both ICBC H/A shares. Our estimates andtarget price are unchanged.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名