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James Chiu

德意志银

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大华股份 电子元器件行业 2017-07-28 23.97 27.30 13.04% 26.60 10.97%
26.88 12.14% -- 详细
1H17 EPS of CNY0.34 in line; government grant accounting re-classification Dahua announced preliminary 1H17 EPS of CNY0.34, +36%YoY. 1H17 revenue growth momentum accelerated to CNY7.5bn, +51%YoY, driven by shipment growth with market share gains.1H17 operating profits were significantly higher than DB forecast at CNY1.1bn, as Dahua re-classify the recognition of government grant and impacts the operating profits, following the revision in #16 of the corporate accounting principal. 1H17 net profits of CNY983 mn, +39%YoY, was in line with DB forecast of CNY994mn. We maintain BUY on Dahua. Positive 2017 outlook with accelerated profit growth We expect the strong revenue growth momentum to sustain into 2H17 as the company continues expanding market share with the rising contribution of total solution projects while continuing to expand its overseas market share. We also expect opex ratio to decline given the increasing revenue scale. Currently, we expect 2017 profits to grow 45%, for EPS of CNY0.9, driven by revenue growth of 38% and operating margin expansions (without taking into account the impact of government grant re-classification). Receipt of bid-winning notice on the Shache PPP tender Dahua has issued an announcement in receipt of the bid-wining notice on the PPP tender by Shache country in Xinjiang with a total amount of CNY4.3bn. Following our report “Accelerating growth from AI” dated July 24, 2017, we have incorporated the potential contribution from this PPP project in our earnings forecast. Valuation and risks We maintain Buy on Dahua with target price of CNY27.3, based on 22x 2018E PE and supported by profit growth of 45%/36% and ROE of 28%/30% in 2017/18, respectively. Dahua share price has appreciated 77%YTD but we expect the share price outperformance to continue driven by its accelerated profit growth and ROE expansions. Risks: market share loss and weak orders from solution projects.
大华股份 电子元器件行业 2017-07-28 23.97 27.30 13.04% 26.60 10.97%
26.88 12.14% -- 详细
Potential winner of a PPP project Dahua has submitted a bid for a PPP tender by Shache country in Xinjiang for asafe city project, which includes infrastructure as well as a public video sharingplatform. The Xinjiang government has announced that Dahua is the toprankedbidder and is likely to win this 10-year project (1year of constructionand 9years of operation), for a total amount of CNY4.3bn. Winning this PPPproject will be positive to Dahua’s growth outlook as we model this project tocontribute to 4%/12% of revenue in 2017/2018, respectively. While the bid isnot final, we have factored in the potential contribution to our earningsforecast. We maintain Buy. Video surveillance rides on the AI trend We have been highlighting that the video surveillance sector will ride on thefuture AI and deep learning trends with increasing video analytics applications.Surveillance cameras equipped with AI capability would be able to detectpotential public safety issues and alert officers more efficiently. Apart fromcrime monitoring, these AI-based surveillance systems can be used to improveemergency services and disaster response rates; to monitor traffic and toimplement smart manufacturing. Following the partnership with nVidia andIntel (Movidius), Dahua has introduced AI video surveillance products forvarious applications. Although the current contribution is limited, we expectthe AI products to further strengthen its suites of solution offerings andbecome its key growth drivers. Accelerated profit growth In addition to Dahua’s continual market share gain and rising contribution fromits solutions, the AI applications and potential PPP project should furtherpropel Dahua’s growth outlook, and we expect revenue growth to accelerateto 38%/36% in 2017/2018from 32% in 2016. The rise in revenue scale shouldalso enable Dahua to reverse the increasing opex ratio trend in 2013-16. Weexpect the opex ratio to decline from 27% in 2016to 26%/25% in 2017/2018,respectively. Our new 2017/2018EPS are CNY0.9/1.2, respectively. Valuation and risks We maintain Buy on Dahua and raise the TP from CNY19.4to CNY27.3on ourincreased 2017/2018earnings forecasts by 6%/14%. We also lift our target P/Emultiple from 20x 2H17-1H18to 22x 2018E due to its accelerated profitgrowth and ROE expansion. We now expect profit growth to accelerate to45%/36% in 2017/2018due to AI applications and the potential PPP. Thestrong profit growth should also enable ROE to expand from 24% in 2016to28%/30% in 2017/18, respectively. Risks: market share loss and weak demand.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-07-27 30.96 34.50 9.59% 32.00 3.36%
34.57 11.66% -- 详细
In-line 1H17 EPS of CNY0.36; maintaining Buy Margin improvement offset by rising opex ratio Hikvision reported its 2Q17 results and held a conference call on July 24, 2017. 2Q17 profit was broadly in line with the DB estimate at CNY1.8bn, up 22% QoQ/24% YoY, for EPS of CNY0.2. 1H17 EPS amounted to CNY0.36, up 26% YoY. Management expected 1-3Q17 profits to grow in a range of 15-35% YoY. We maintain our Buy rating. Margin improvement offset by rising opex ratio In addition to 2Q17 revenue growth at 29% YoY due to continued market share gains, Hikvision delivered 2Q17 GPM of 43%, a significant improvement from 37% in 2Q16 and flat vs. 1Q17. We have been highlighting the stabilizing margin due to management efforts and improving product mix. However, the expenses ratio rose, which we attribute to the rising R&D investment for the innovation businesses and overseas business expansions. Non-op contribution was lower due to CNY88mn forex losses and slower growth in VAT tax return. Growth across all product segments with stronger overseas business In terms of 1H17 product breakdown, front-end equipment remains the largest revenue contributor at 52%, up 25% YoY. The “innovation” business (which consists of Ezvits, auto and robots products) grew the strongest at almost three times YoY from a low base. On geographical breakdown, the overseas business (30% in 1H17) continued to lead the growth at 38% YoY due to share gain, while GPM expanded to 50% with rising solution/project contribution (from 20% in 2016 to 30% in 1H17). 2H17 outlook remains positive Hikvision is positive on the 2H17 outlook driven by the domestic business recovery, particularly in public safety and transportation, while being cautious on overseas business with growth deceleration due to unstable economies. Management expects GPM to sustain into 2H17 and we attribute this to improving product mix and mild competition. However, opex ratio should rise vs. 2016 on an increase in R&D expenses for new businesses, while selling expenses is on the rise to set up overseas offices to target the project/solution business. Currently, we expect 2017 revenue/profit to grow 28%/28% as higher GPM is being offset by the rising opex ratio with 2017 EPS of CNY1.04. Valuation and risk We maintain BUY and raise our TP from CNY27.3 (50% stock dividend issued on our prior TP of CNY41) to CNY34.5, as we raise 2017/18/19 earnings estimates by 4%/12%/12% to reflect a stronger growth outlook and roll over valuation from 25x 2H17-1H18 to 25x 2018E PE. Our target multiple of 25x remains unchanged and is supported by 34%/36% ROE and 28%/33% earnings growth in 2017/2018, respectively. Risks: market share loss and weak demand.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-05-08 24.46 26.92 -- 28.80 17.74%
32.54 33.03%
详细
A full pack investor day. We attended Hikvision's investors day in its headquarter in Hangzhou, China,with presentation from the senior management team including president (orGM) Hu and the CFO Huang. Much of the discussion centered around its corevideo surveillance as well as AI applications and its new innovation businessesincluding the robots and the auto camera. We remain positive on Hikvision'soutlook and reiterate our Buy rating. Algorithm is one of Hikvision's core in riding the AI trend. We have been highlighting that Hikvision will ride on the future AI and deeplearning trend following its AI product launch and nVidia partnership in 2016. Hikvision noted that there are three building blocks for AI applicationsincluding algorithm, processing power and database. While processing powercan be improved with the chip technology, the video surveillance sector has alarge database given the amount of video being captured with millions ofcamera around the globe. The management indicated that its algorithm knowhowwere developed in-house from the experience with video compressionand license plate recognition from years ago. Hikvision will continue devotingresources to its R&D team with in-house talents. Currently, Hikvision has AIproducts for front-end camera, back-end storage and central controllingproducts. The AI products will be its mid-term growth driver with higher ASPand margin. We expect the AI trend will continue to drive its video surveillanceproducts. New innovation business: ADAS and robots are the future trend. The new innovation business is also the spotlight, particularly the automotiveapplications and robots. Hikvision has developed smart surveillance and ADASproducts for automotive application. The management targets automotivemanufactures and first tier auto component companies but they will take timeto get certification. Hikvision's robot applications targets smart manufacturingincluding logistics robots and industrial barcode readers but contributionremain limited. We believe the bulk of revenue in innovation business remainsEzviz which has turned profitable with its rising subscribers and service income. We expect revenue contribution from the new innovation business to rise from2% in 2016 to 4% 2017. Valuation and risks. Hikvision is one of the top picks in the Asian hardware space. Following itsstrong share price appreciation of 57% YTD, some investors could take profits. However, we remain positive on Hikvision as the company secures its globalleading position in the video surveillance sector while expanding into othergrowth segments. Our target price of RMB41 is based on 25x 2H17-1H18E PE,supported by 36% ROE and 23% earnings growth in 2017/2018. Downsiderisks: order loss and weak demand.
大华股份 电子元器件行业 2017-04-25 16.93 17.22 -- 18.90 11.11%
25.54 50.86%
详细
2016profit grew 32%YoY; cash dividend of CNY0.1. Dahua released its 2016annual report with EPS of CNY0.63, compared to DBforecast of CNY0.64. 2016revenue grew 32%YoY, driven by shipment growthof 42% as the company continues to gain market shares. More importantly,GPM expanded from 37.2% in 2015to 37.7% in 2016, a stabilization followingtwo consecutive years of severe margin erosion due to rising economies ofscale and the increasing contribution of total solution revenue. On the otherhand, opex ratio rose from 25.5% in 2015to 27% in 2016as the companytransitioned itself to target the solution business and rising R&D investment.Net profit of CNY1.8bn, +33%YoY, was in-line with our forecast. Dahua hasproposed paying a cash dividend of CNY0.1per share.Stabilizing cash conversion cycle. We have noted Dahua’s lengthening cash conversation cycle (CCC),particularly with the rise in AR days as the company has been transitioningfrom a hardware supplier to a total solution provider, which has a longerpayment period due to more projects than direct products sold. By looking atDahua’s year-end balance sheet, CCC days slightly increased by two days to213days in 2016(+38days in 2015), mainly due to a decline in AR days.Dahua attributed the AR improvement to management efforts as thereceivables are now part of the KPI for the sales team. With regard to the risinginventory days, the management noted that 80-90% inventory will be shippedwithin the next 3months. We expect Dahua’s CCC to stabilize at current level.Positive 2017outlook driven by solution and overseas businesses. Looking into 2017, we are still positive on Dahua’s growth outlook as thecompany continued to expand its market share. Following two years oftransition with a shift to the total solution business, Dahua expects the totalsolution business to begin harvesting with rising contributions. At the sametime, the company will continue expanding market share in the overseasmarket, following 39%YoY growth in 2016. In addition, the rising contributionfrom these two segment could also help the company to sustain group GPM atthe current level due to the rising software content for the solution businessand the higher margin profile for the overseas business at 42%. We expectopex ratio to trend down in 2017as the management expects the risingefficiency following the transitions. Currently, we expect 2017e revenue togrow 22% with expanding OPM at 13%.Valuation and risks. We leave our earnings forecast and target price unchanged as the 2016resultsare much in-line with our forecast. Our target price of CNY17.3is based on 20x2017E P/E, supported by 2016-18earnings CAGR of 31%, average ROE of 27%and solid industry growth. Downside risks: order loss to video surveillancecompetitors and higher component costs.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-04-20 22.77 26.92 -- 27.27 19.76%
32.54 42.91%
详细
1Q17 operating profit grew 33%YoY but non-op missed forecasts. Hikvision started 2017 with strong growth in the first quarter. 1Q17 operating profit was 4% ahead of consensus, at CNY1.5bn, +33% YoY, driven by revenue growth (+35.5% YoY). GPM expanded to 43% with the competition easing and management focusing its effort on margins. However, pre-tax profits were 10%/9% below DB/consensus forecasts with lower-than-expected non-op income. Combined with a higher tax rate of 18%, 1Q17 net income registered CNY1.5bn, +29.5%YoY, for EPS of CNY0.25. 2016 - growth with margin expansion but inventory days lengthened. Hikvision also announced its detailed 2016 annual results. The company continued gaining share, with 26% revenue growth, driven by 44% shipment growth. More importantly, we have been highlighting margin stabilization, and Hikvision’s GPM did recover 2ppt in 2016 from 2015 after years of decline. On the other hand, we are slightly concerned about the lengthening cash conversion cycle, from 88 days at the end of 2015 to 99 days at the end of 2016, mainly due to rising inventory days. The company has also proposed to pay a CNY cash dividend and a stock dividend of 50%. Growth momentum to sustain into 2017. Management expects 2017 profits to rise 15-35%, mostly driven by revenue growth. We expect revenues to grow 25%, with the public safety and transportation segments being the prime drivers. Despite management’s view on global macro uncertainty, the company still expects growth of overseas business to outpace Chinese domestic business. Hikvision still targets maintaining its GPM at over 40%, given its focus on its industry-leading position and profitability. The company expects opex ratio to remain at the current level (~20%), given its continual expansion of the R&D team in the innovation business and software such as data analytics. We expect OPM to be maintained at 21%. Valuation and risks. Hikvision is one of our top picks in the Asian hardware space. We are positive on the company’s continual market share gain and margin stabilization. The miss in 1Q17 results was mainly due to non-op, while its 33% YoY growth in operating profits marks a good start to 2017. While we slightly lower our earnings to reflect rising R&D efforts and lower non-op, we raise our target price from CNY40.8 to CNY41, as we roll over our valuation from 25x 2017E P/E to 25x 2H17-1H18E P/E. Risks: market share loss and weak demand.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-01-12 24.77 26.79 -- 27.33 10.34%
33.57 35.53%
详细
Hikvision believes there was demand recovery in 2016, mainly driven bythe public safety and transportation segments. The growth from SME andthe financial industry were milder. The company expects the strength frompublic safety and transportation to sustain into 2017. We expect Hikvisionto deliver a sales growth of 29.5%/26.3%/24.6% in 2016/2017/2018,respectively. The company’s overseas business contributes to 25-30% of the revenue,with US consists of 25-30% of the oversea’s business. Managementestimated 30-40% growth in 2016 with higher than corporate averagemargin due to less competition. Currently, the solution business onlyaccounts for 15-20% of the overseas business and the managementtargets to increase the solution business contribution. Hikvision noted a stabilizing margin in 2016 due to 1) demand recoverywhich reduces the competition, 2) improving product mix as public safetyand transportation segments generate higher margin, 3) the company’sfocus on profitability by adding margin performance as management KPI,compared to the prior evaluation on revenue growth only. We expect GPMof 40.6%/40.0%/39.5% in 2016/2017/2018, respectively. Given the trend of AI (artificial intelligence) smart city, Hikvision hasdevoted its R&D resources in data analytics such as facial recognition andlicense plate recognition. The company has further expanded its R&Dengineers from 7,181 in 2015 to approximately 9,000 in 2016, with themajority of the team being the software engineers. The R&D spendingcould enable Hikvision to capture the rising trend, secure leadership andprovide more value-add to its clients.
大华股份 电子元器件行业 2016-11-17 14.29 17.22 -- 14.60 2.17%
14.60 2.17%
详细
Initiating coverage with Buy and target price of CNY17.3. We initiate coverage on Dahua, the #2 video surveillance manufacturer inChina, with a Buy rating and a target price of CNY17.3, based on 20x 2017EP/E. We expect Dahua’s earnings to re-accelerate after the severe marginerosion during in 2014/15. We expect smart city solutions, IoT applications andoverseas expansion to generate strong top-line growth and market share gainswhile margins stabilize. Dahua currently trades at 17x and we expect themultiple to expand, supported by earnings growth of 31%; Buy. Beneficiary of IoT proliferation. The video surveillance industry is expanding rapidly, driven by the rise of IoT,particularly in the areas of traffic monitoring and public safety in smart cityimplementation. Market research firm, Frost & Sullivan, has estimated thesmart city market for products and service revenues to be US$1.5tr in 2020. Fast expansion of its overseas business. Dahua has accelerated its overseas business expansion through ODM ordersfrom global security companies (e.g., Honeywell). As the industry consolidatesto offset severe price erosion, there are clear incentives for global securitiescompanies to outsource to stay competitive. Combined with Dahua’s ownoverseas expansion from establishing offices in each continent, managementexpects the overseas business contribution to expand from 39% in 1H16 to45% in 2018E. Margin pressure to be alleviated. Dahua's margin has been driven lower over the past five years, due to pricingpressures and its strategic transition. However, over the past nine months,there has been clear evidence of stabilization, with improving economies ofscale and the increasing contribution of service/operation revenue. We forecasta sustainable level of over 10% for the next two years. Valuation and risks. Our target price of CNY17.3 is based on 20x 2017E P/E, supported by 2016-18earnings CAGR of 31%, average ROE of 27% and solid industry growth. Ourtarget P/E multiple is lower than its historical average P/E multiple of 31xduring the past three years. Risks: market share loss, weaker orders and higherlabor costs.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2016-11-17 24.56 26.79 -- 25.94 5.62%
27.33 11.28%
详细
Initiating coverage with Buy and target price of CNY40.8. We initiate coverage on Hikvision (002415 CH), the global leader in the videosurveillance industry, with a Buy rating and a target price of CNY40.8, basedon 25x 2017E PE. We expect widening IoT applications and Hikvision’sexpanding product portfolio to sustain its long-term growth. As a result of newproducts, its market share is rising towards 28% and margins are stabilizingwith scale and a rising proportion of solution business revenues. The sharesare on 15x currently and should re-rate to better reflect 27% earnings growth. Riding on the IoT/Smart city boom. We expect the video surveillance industry to benefit from the surging growthof IoT as network cameras capture images/data. These cameras are alsoessential in various smart city implementations in keeping citizens safe andimproving their quality of life. Market research firm, Frost & Sullivan, estimatessmart city spending will reach US$1.5tr in 2020. We believe more than half ofHikvision’s total solutions business is related to the IoT/smart city and weexpect the solution business to benefit from the IoT/Smart city boom. A market share gainer. Hikvision's global market share has expanded rapidly from 7.9% in 2012 to18.1% in 2015. We expect the share gain trend to continue and reach 27.5% in2018 on the back of its lower cost structure, one-stop-shop strategy withcomplete product line-ups, early entry into aerial surveillance and closeproximity to the fast-growing Chinese market, at a 17% CAGR in 2015-19E. Margin pressure to subside. Hikvision's margin has declined since 2010 due to its lower pricing strategy toexpand market share with rapid shipment growth. While we expect the pricepressure to persist as Hikvision gains further share, we also expect marginerosion to be partially offset by rising economies of scale with a lower opexratio and a rise in the more lucrative total solutions business. We expect OPMto stay at 21-22% over the next few years. Valuation and risks. We base our target price of CNY40.8 on 25x 2017E P/E, in line with itshistorical average of 24x. We believe the valuation is justified by strongearnings growth, net cash position and an average ROE of 38% during 2016-18. The key risks are a market share loss and weaker-than-expected demand.
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1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
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