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陈剑

中信证券

研究方向: 通信行业

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工作经历: 执业证书编号:S1010512120001,中信证券研究部从事通信行业研究。 清华大学硕士;中国电信战略规划处7年工作经验,2010年12月加盟中信证券研究部。...>>

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研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
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*ST合泰 基础化工业 2014-06-26 6.30 10.51 233.13% 6.60 4.76% -- 6.60 4.76% -- 详细
Event:The Company announced that it recently signed the Agreement on Bank Card Fabrication, Customization, Package and Mailing Service with Ping An Bank. According to it, the Company will provide IC credit card fabrication, customization, package and mailing services for Ping An Bank. Comments: Smart IC card enters a peak season for business climate. In the Notice on Gradually Closing the Downgrade Transaction of Financial IC Cards issued on 14 May, the People’s Bank of China calls for giving play to the safety advantage of financial IC cards and paving the way for stopping issuance of magnetic stripe cards in 2015. This is expected to drive smart IC cards to an upbeat business climate season. The timetable was set down later: ATMs shall close the downgrade transaction of financial IC cards before the end of Aug 14E; POS machines shall close downgrade transaction of financial IC cards before the end of Oct 14E, and commercial banks shall close downgrade transactions of financial IC cards on other offline channels prior to the end of 2014 based on their own conditions. By continuously developing the national large banks as its customers, the position of the Company’s card business improved. Tungkung further won the IC credit card project (fabrication) of Ping An Bank, another high-quality customer following the China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. This is tipped to further consolidate its industrial position. At present, the IC card orders of China Construction Bank has started to increase, and the social security card business in Shandong and Henan is growing rapidly. The IC card business is expected to contribute substantial results in 2H14E. Traditional business is in sound operation, and electronic voucher business is developing steadily. The Company’s traditional business kept steady growth in 2Q14. In terms of e-invoice, latest data of www.e-inv.cn shows that the number of e-invoices issued through the Company has surpassed 10 million copies and it is still growing rapidly. JD and Xiaomi issue more than 50,000 copies of e-invoice every day each, and more large-scale e-commerce operators are applying for issuance of e-invoice. Peoples Insurance Company of China (a customer of the Company) is actively pressing ahead with the e-invoice accounting & reimbursement pilot program. Risks associated with investing in the company: enforcement of the smart card policies, and enforcement of the e-invoice policies etc.
*ST合泰 基础化工业 2014-06-04 6.12 10.51 233.13% 6.67 8.99%
6.67 8.99% -- 详细
Event: The Company announced on 29th May that it has recently received a “Notification on Bid Winning” from the credit card centre of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Holdings Limited. It won the bid for the centre’s “blank credit card and customized purchases” program, becoming the supplier of their “chip card”. Our comments on this are as follows: Comments: The growth of the penetration rate of the smart IC card is likely to rise, and this signals a boom. On 14th May, the People’s Bank published its “Circular on Matters Relating to the Gradual Phasing-out of the Financial IC Card and Transaction Downgrades”,announcing its decision to implement a standardized, country-wide process of gradually abolishing the financial IC card and “downgrading of transactions”. This process will fully utilize the safety features of the financial IC card, minimizing the risk of fraud that may arise from downgraded transactions carried out via the financial IC card. The bank will stop issuing magnetic cards in 2015E, laying a foundation for transformation which would result in a boom for the smart IC card. Gaining premium customers and becoming a major player in China’s smart IC card market. Before winning the bid to become the supplier for SPDB’s program (there are essentially only 3-4 players in this market), the Company has won bids for financial IC cards from major financial institutions in China - China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Citic Bank. Winning the most recent bid enhances the Company’s premium customer base and reinforces its status in the industry. With the current rising volume of social insurance card issuances in Shandong, Henan etc., IC card schemes in the second half of the year will likely contribute to its results, and card-related business is expected to drive growth for the year. As electronic transactions continue to evolve, back office services can be effectively improved. Currently, in the realm of electronic transactions, JD, Xiaomi, Happigo and Gome are on E-inv and are doing well; many other major e-commerce enterprises have also filed applications. The Company has been diligently facilitating the trial for the electronic filing of personal insurance claims and most core issues have been settled. The Company has also played an important role in every stage of trials and policy implementation for electronic transactions in China, demonstrating considerable first-mover advantage which the Company is constantly accumulating. In addition, the traditional businesses of the Company were stable in April and May. Upcoming orders for smart IC cards will drive the Company’s growth for the year. Risks associated with investment into the Company: Implementation of unfavorable policies in the smart card industry, as well as unfavorable policies for electronic transactions. Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating. Considering uncertainty over order volumes for the newly-won tenders, we currently maintain the Company’s 2014-16EEPS of Rmb 0.52/0.68/0.82, equivalent to prospective 2014-16E PE of 32/25/20x at the current share price of Rmb16.73 per share. Growth of traditional businesses of the Company has been steady. 2014 will likely see the Company become a forerunner among IC card suppliers, driving growth for the next two years. Success of the trial for electronic invoicing and reimbursement will gradually expand the market. In keeping abreast with trends in information services, quality back office support for the transition to electronic transactions can be provided. We reiterate its price target of Rmb21.52 per share and “BUY” rating. We continue advising investors to seize the opportunities from its re-rating driven by systemic stabilization of the market in the near term and possible breakthrough developments brought about by the trial for electronic invoicing.
中兴通讯 通信及通信设备 2014-04-15 13.85 15.82 50.83% 13.97 0.87%
13.97 0.87% -- 详细
Investment Highlights Forecast-beating reversal of earnings. The Company disclosed its 1Q14 earnings pre-announcement, forecasting its profit to be Rmb425-637mn in 1Q4E (+107.32-210.74% YoY), and net profit after non-recurring gains and losses to stand at Rmb583mn (+Rmb1.2bn YoY), notably beating market expectations. Its forecast-beating improvement in earnings in 1Q14 was thanks mainly to three drivers: (i) it launched 3/4G business in Southeast Asia, one of its powerful overseas markets that poses strong support for its overseas business rally; (ii) its operation in Africa is about to enter a harvest period, which helps narrow its losses; and (iii) domestic 4G projects are in full swing, giving a strong boost to its turnover and profit growth. Thanks to China’s 4G network construction and national network security strategy, the Company’s earnings are expected to sustain a rapid growth during 2014-16E. With the rapid growth in mobile Internet traffic, construction of 4G base stations and supporting networks will keep growing for three straight years. In the domestic market, the Company has transformed from an “expansion” period into a “harvest” period. The launch of the national network security strategy will boost operators, government departments, enterprises and public institutions to tilt toward Chinese standards and manufacturers in terms of network equipment and IT software procurement, and the Company will gain more business growth in such integrated applications as government-enterprise network market and “smart city”. The Company boasts powerful technological strength, complete presence in industry chain, and profound accumulation of IPRs, and its long-term value is underestimated. The Company makes increased efforts in such fields as smart city, industrial informatization, and alternative energy, and has expressly put forward its development goal of “building another ZTE”. Among China’s integrated hardware/software R&D technology companies, the Company ranks among the top 5 in terms of its scale and comprehensive ability. It boasts profound experience in such technological fields as self-developed OS, memory database, bottom chip, network equipment, software application development, mobile terminal and energy management, and ranks among top companies in terms of international IPRs. It is also a leader in terms of independent innovation at home, and notably prevent other leading peers from commanding monopoly in the sector. With a solid position, its long-term value is underestimated. Ample catalysts in the short term: against the national general orientation of independent and controlled business development, the Company has started to take advantage of a wide range of resources to develop its business in emerging sectors, and it is projected to expand and be catalyzed in such fields as IDC collaborative operation, virtual operator, smart TV games, overseas e-commerce platform, and alternative energy management. It is cooperating with TMALL on its newly launched 4G flagship mobile phone sales, booked volume stands at 12mn units, with first 50k units sold out within 1min on 10 Apr. In 1Q14, the Company intended to adjust its supply chain, and cut 3G mobile phone capacity. Domestic mobile phone business is forecast to begin to fully improve after the start of 2Q14E, and underscore 4G mobile phones’ first-mover advantage and operators’ channel advantage. Potential risks: (i) lukewarm improvement in overseas business, and (ii) limited improvement in domestic mobile phone business. Reiterate “BUY” rating. Given that the Company’s development in the emerging sectors will gradually reflect its long-term technological advantages and strategic value, we reiterate its 2014/15/16E EPS of Rmb0.88/1.10/1.26. Factoring in its certain orientation in strategic transformation and gradual improvement in its earnings, we set its target price at Rmb20 per share (implying 2013/14/15E PE of 49/23/18x), and reiterate “BUY” rating.
中兴通讯 通信及通信设备 2014-03-25 13.06 15.82 50.83% 14.19 8.65%
14.19 8.65%
详细
Thanks to China’s 4G network construction and national network security strategy, the Company’s earnings are expected to sustain a rapid growth in 2014-16E. With the rapid growth in mobile Internet traffic, construction of 4G base stations and supporting networks will keep growing for three straight years. In the domestic market, the Company has transformed from an “expansion” period into a “harvest” period. The launch of the national network security strategy will drive operators, government departments, enterprises and public institutions to tilt toward Chinese standards and manufacturers in network equipment and IT software procurement, and the Company is expected to gain more business growth in integrated applications such as government/enterprise network market and “smart city”. We thus project that its earnings will keep growing during 2014-16E. Notable improvement in overseas operation. While maintaining a rapid growth in terminal sales in Europe and the US, the Company has launched 4G business in Southeast Asia, one of the overseas markets where it is better positioned, providing strong support to its overseas business rally; its operation in Africa is about to enter a harvest period again, which is conducive to narrowing its losses. Transformation strategy gets started: the Company takes advantage of its abundant technology accumulation to make increased efforts in such fields as smart city, industrial informatization, and alternative energy, and has expressly put forward its development goal of “building another ZTE”. Among China’s integrated hardware/software R&D technology companies, the Company ranks among the top 5 in terms of its scale and comprehensive ability. It boasts profound accumulation in such technological fields as self-developed OS, memory database, chip, network equipment, software application development, mobile terminal and energy management. Under the orientation of national independent and controllable development, the Company has started to take advantage of its various resources to develop in a variety of patterns in the emerging sectors. It has made increased efforts in the development of a number of fields including IDC synergetic operation, virtual operator, smart TV game, overseas e-commerce platform, and alternative energy management, and has expressly put forward a strategic goal of “building another ZTE”. The Company’s long-term value is underestimated, and its clear-cut strategy and organizational structure adjustment will improve operation efficiency. The Company is a top player by international intellectual property rights it has accumulated for years,and also boasts a leading position in terms of its independent innovation at home, which serves as noticeable check and balance against industrial leaders, and boasts a solid position and noticeable long-term value. At end-2013, it carried out overall organizational structure adjustment and executives reshuffle, elevated its government/enterprise as an independent business division, improved mobile phone R&D and business procedures, and isolated operator customized terminal business and distribution channels to mobilize internal resources and dynamics. Its government/enterprise network and mobile terminal operations are expected to pick up significantly to become the power house for its long-term growth. The Company’s 1Q14E earnings are projected to surge YoY, and operators’ disclosure of their capex plans and the Company’s progress in the emerging fields will become catalysts for its share price in the near term. 4G network construction project in 2013 was postponed till early 2014, which is projected to drive the Company’s 1Q14E earnings to surge YoY. It progress in such emerging fields as alternative energy, smart city, IDC collaborative operation, virtual operation, and game cooperation will be gradually materialized, which will become catalysts for its development. Potential risks: (i) domestic operators’ smaller-than-expected capex on 4G network, (ii) limited improvement in the Company’s mobile phone/overseas businesses, and (iii) slow development in the emerging fields. Earnings forecast, valuation, and investment rating. Given that the Company is operating in a period of earnings reversal, its earnings will improve gradually, and its development in the emerging sectors will gradually reflect its long-term track record technologically and strategic value. We lift its 2013/14/15E EPS to Rmb0.41/0.88/1.1 (from Rmb0.41/0.85/1.00). Factoring in its clear orientation for strategic transformation and gradual improvement in its earnings, we raise its target price to Rmb20 per share (implying 2013/14/15E PE of 49/23/18x), and reiterate “BUY” rating.
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