We lower our 2012-2014 effective tax rate estimate to 28% (from 33%/32%/31%),and, following company guidance on consolidated mines, adjust productionestimates to 6.2/7.85/10.85 mn tons (-5.6%/-8.9%/-10%). Based on these updateswe cut 2012E-14E EPS to Rmb3.87/4.62/5.68 (-1.5%/-4.5%/-6.8%), and lower our12-m Director’s Cut TP 2.5% to Rmb56.46. Lanhua is trading at 11.6 X 2012E P/Eratios, below the 13.9X sector average. We think the CPL project could be risky,but from 2012-14 the firm will benefit from resumed production at theYameidaning mine and consolidated mines capacity release. We expect netprofit CAGR of 25%, and maintain Buy. Key risks: falling urea prices.

We initiate on Shanxi Coal International Energy (SCIE) with a Buy and aDirector’s Cut 12-month target price of Rmb33.41, implying 24% potentialupside. We estimate net profit CAGR of 51% over 2012-14E, versus anindustry average of 21%. Our 2012/13E EPS of Rmb2.06/3.09 are 8%/15%above Bloomberg consensus. We expect CROCI to improve from fourthquartile in 2011 to second quartile in 2014. SCIE’s EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACCis at 12% discount to the industry and it is trading at only 12.9X/8.6X onour 2012/13 estimates, well below the industry averages of 13.5X/11.2X.