Channel restocking to be more relevant driver in 2H17-18 Revisiting Different from the market consensus that Moutai’s recent recovery has been driven mainly by recovering private consumption, we expect channel restocking to be a stronger growth driver from 2017. Based on our proprietary channel models, we think Moutai entered a new restocking cycle from late 2016 and this new cycle will continue in 2017-19. As indicated by historical experience, Moutai often increases its supply and raises ex-factory prices during a re-stocking cycle. Raising TP by 34%, to Rmb550, and reiterating Buy. Revisiting the channel restocking and destocking cycles of 2009-16 Owing to Moutai’s unique nature ? long shelf value, high-value items and limited supply perception, channel players demonstrate a strong impetus to store up on Moutai’s products when a price appreciation expectation emerges. In 2009-12, Moutai’s growth was driven firstly by demand recovery from infrastructure investments, and then by channel restocking, due to (and resulting in) a retail price hike expectation. In 2013-16, demand for Moutai’s products was firstly affected by anti-extravagant measures and then by channel destocking, which resulted in a retail price collapse. Entering a new restocking cycle from 2017 After building a channel inventory model, we find that, owing to heavy channel destocking and increasing consumption in 2013-16, Moutai’s current channel stocking is at a seven-year low. From 2017, driven by price appreciation expectations, Moutai has started to enter a new channel restocking cycle. We expect this cycle to continue into 2017-19. As a reaction to the restocking cycles, we expect Moutai to increase its supply and raise its ex-factory prices in the near term. Raising target price (TP) by 34%; reiterating Buy; risks We raise our TP by 34%, to Rmb550, based on a DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate), and we reiterate our Buy rating. Moutai is trading at 22x 2018E P/E, with a 24% earnings CAGR in 2016-19E, compared with its peers’ average P/E of 24x. Reiterating Buy. Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; government policy changes; food safety incidents.

A quality growth stock Sales growth remains good in near-term Yili attended Deutsche Bank’s global consumer conference in Paris and also visited investors in the UK last week. We summarize investors’ top 5 questions on page 2. Investors generally agreed on the good growth potential for China’s dairy sector and were impressed by Yili’s strong execution capability. We think Yili is a good proxy for investing in China’s consumption trade-up trend in nutritional products. We reiterate our Buy rating. Sales growth remains good in near-term Management expects sales growth in 2Q17 to improve vs. 1Q17 (it was 3% yoy in 1Q17), helped by stabilizing competition and a lower base (it disposed of Youran farm in April 2016). Meanwhile, major raw material costs, i.e. packaging and sugar, are also stabilizing in 2Q17 vs 1Q17, albeit partly offset by less use of low-cost raw material inventory. We forecast gross margin to be stable vs. 1Q17. For the full year, management maintains its guidance at 7% sales growth and 6.5% PBT decline (on lower government subsidy income). Multiple drivers to achieve Rmb100bn sales in long-term In the long term, management maintains its target of achieving Rmb100bn sales and becoming a global top five dairy company. Firstly, it expects to achieve higher-than-peers growth in basic dairy products. Secondly, the major driver will come from plant-based milk (it will launch soy milk in 2H17), organic milk (it is bidding for US Stonyfield), and chilled yoghurt. Thirdly, it is also open to entering the non-dairy healthy food category. On EBIT margin, Yili is already higher than most global peers, but it thinks there is still expansion potential through better product mix and the launch of high-margin categories. We reiterate Buy We like Yili for its experienced management team, strong distribution network, and good track record in new product launches. We expect it to achieve higher-than-peers growth through gaining market share, category expansion and M&A. We reiterate our Buy on Yili with TP of Rmb22, based on DCF model, factoring in 9.5% WACC (3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% TG.. Key downside risks: higher-than-expected raw material increases, food safety incidents and worse-than-expected competition.

To bid Stonyfield for USD850m Yili announced that it plans to bid for 100% equity in Stonyfield for USD850m from Danone Group. Stonyfield is an organic yogurt maker based in New Hampshire, USA. The company has brands including YoBaby, YoToddler, YoKids and Oikos. According to New York Post, the company generated USD370m sales and USD50m EBITDA in 2016. The selling of Stongyfield is part of an agreement reached by Danone with the US Department of Justice for winning approval to buy soy-milk-maker WhiteWave for USD10bn, which was completed in April 2017. Dean Foods is also in the auction to buy Stonyfield, according to New York Post. Acquisition scenario: 5% incremental EBITDA in 2017; but good potential synergies in the long-term We expect Yili to use its internal capital to finance the acquisition (It has Rmb14bn in 2016 and has Rmb8-9bn operating cash flow per year in 2017-19). Based on Stonyfield’s 2016 financials (i.e. assuming the company generates the same 2016 revenue and EBITDA of USD370m and USD50m, respectively, in 2017), and assuming full year consolidation, we expect 3.9%/ 4.6% of incremental sales/EBITDA contribution for Yili in 2017E from the acquisition, if realized. While the earnings contribution appears to be limited in near term, we expect more upside potential for the long-term. With Yili’s wide distribution network in China and good track record in brand building, we think Yili should be able to drive sales in China for Stonyfield, and therefore provide potential for upside to the earnings contribution in the long term.

Earnings growth tracks ahead of our full year forecastYili reported 3% sales growth to Rmb15.8bn and 12% net profit growth toRmb1.7bn in 1Q17. The sales growth tracks behind our full year forecast at 7%in 2017, but the earnings growth is better than our 2017 forecast at 9%. Grossmargin declined 4.3ppts yoy to 37.2%, which likely due to rising milk powdercost. SG&A/sales declined significantly by 5.0ppts to 25%. What’s behind our expectation: strong control in selling expense…The earnings growth is mainly contributed by significant savings in sellingexpense, which declined 3.8ppts yoy to 25.0% in 1Q17. The selling expenseratio is at the lowest level since 3Q15, likely helped by savings in A&Pspending. As a result of rising industrial milk powder price from 2H16, thecompany likely further controlled A&P expense to maintain profitability. …yet market share remained resilientYili’s room temperature products, chilled products and Infant formula marketshare increased slightly from 32.4%, 15.6% and 5.6% in 4Q16 to 33.6%, 16.2%and 5.8% in 1Q17, respectively. Yili could continue to gain market share evenwhile controlling A&P expense, likely helped by an easing of marketcompetition and more efficient expenses. Infant formula sector likely resumes growthYili didn’t report segment sales in 1Q17, but we estimate its IMF segment salesmight recover to positive growth (vs 15% decline in 2016), given its marketshare increase 40bps yoy in 1Q17. This is likely helped by healthier channelstocking and less pressure from market competition. Maintaining BuyWe expect a similar trend for full year as 1Q17. The headwinds in gross marginwill likely increase due to rising raw material cost, yet this could be offset byeasing market competition and savings in A&P cost. Potential acquisitionswould be the main positive catalyst for the company. We maintain Buy on Yili.

To terminate share placement and acquisition of China Shengmu. Yili announced on 27 April 2017 that it will terminate the share placement of 587mn shares at Rmb15.33/share, as a result of cancelling the acquisition of 37% interest in China Shengmu. Accordingly, the general offers triggered by the transaction based on HK listing rules also lapsed. Yili indicated that the acquisition cancellation was mainly due to the failure to fulfill all the conditions precedent in the framework contract with Shengmu until 21 April 2017 (“Long Stop Date”), and in particular, it have NOT received the approval from Anti-Monopoly Bureau of MOFCOM. Both Yili and Shengmu agreed on 25 April not to extend Long Stop Date, and therefore the Sale and Purchase Agreement automatically terminated on 21 April 2017. To recap, Yili announced that it plans to finance Rmb9bn through issuing 587mn shares to five investors at Rmb15.33/share in October 2016. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of 37% interest in China Shengmu (1432.HK, NR) at HK$2.25/share and Capex for high-end products' production. Positive on terminating placement; maintaining Buy. We think termination of placement should remove overhangs for EPS dilution. It has a strong cash balance of Rmb14bn in 2016 and has Rmb8-9bn operating cash flow per year, indicating there is not much necessity for equity financings. While Yili terminates the acquisition of Shengmu, we expect the management should continue to seek growth through M&A, likely for high ROE companies and oversea brands. We maintain Buy.

Suspension of trading . Trading of Yili is suspended on today (24 April 2017), pending the release of an announcement on material information, according to the Shanghai Exchange news. Possibly due to circulation of Shengmu acquisition . To recap, on Oct 22, 2016, Yili announced that it plans to finance Rmb9bn through issuing 587mn shares to five investors at Rmb15.33/share. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of 37% interest in China Shengmu (1432.HK) at HK$2.25/share and Capex for high-end products' production. Yili signed a framework contract with Shengmu on Oct 22, 2016. According to the contract, the acquisition is conditional on conditions of 1) approved by NDRC; 2) approved by MOFCOM; 3) approved by anti-monopoly Bureau of MOFCOM; 4) approved by SAFE and 5) Deposit of Sale shares into a share escrow account. If the conditions set out above are not satisfied or waived before the Long Stop Date (April 21, 2017), the Sale and Purchase Agreements will automatically terminate. Given the Long Stop Date was last Friday, we think Yili is possibly suspended for further circulation of acquisition of interest in China Shengmu (1432.HK), which is also under trade suspension today..

14% sales growth and 58% net profit growth in1Q17 Yonghui reported 1Q17 results with 13.8% sales growth to Rmb15.26bn and57.55% net profit growth to Rmb743.7m, in line with its preliminary resultsannounced last week. The sales are mainly driven by 1-2% SSSG, 105 newstore openings in 2016, and 140bps yoy expansion in net margin. Thecompany opened 33 new stores in 1Q17 (vs. 24 new stores in 1Q16), includingone select Store, one Super Species, and 9 membership store. Strong margin expansion trend on margin-focus strategy Yonghui’s net margin expanded 140bps yoy in 1Q17, helped by 60bps yoy inGPM and 90bps decline in Opex/sales. We believe this is helped by itsreclassification of Fujian and northeast region to margin focus group fromOctober 2016. Further, we believe management’s efforts in improving thecompany’s supply chain and operating efficiency are bearing fruits. 2017 outlook – margin expansion trend to continue We expect Yonghui to enter a margin expansion cycle from 2017, helped by anincreasing sales contribution from high-end stores and by operating efficiencyimprovingmeasures. Meanwhile, management is switching more focus fromscale to margin growth. We expect the margin expansion trend to continue inthe next three quarters. We forecast 48% recurring net profit growth toRmb1,494mn. Reiterate Buy We maintain Buy on Yonghui and are encouraged by the company enteringmargin expansion phase. Our target price is RMB6.50, based on DCF model,factoring in 9.5% COE, 1.0 beta and 1.5% TGR. Downside risk: competitionfrom on/offline players, weak SSSG, and management capability in nationwideexpansion.

Entering margin expansion cycle. 1Q17: strong beat on store network and margin expansion We expect Yonghui to enter a margin expansion cycle from 2017, helped by an increasing sales contribution from high-end stores and by operating efficiency-improving measures. Meanwhile, management is switching more focus from scale to margin growth. We expect the margin expansion trend to continue in the next three years. We revise up our EPS forecast by 6-14% in 2017-19E and raise our TP by 14% to Rmb6.5. Reiterating Buy. 1Q17: strong beat on store network and margin expansion. Yonghui announced 1Q17 preliminary results with 14% sales growth and 58% net profit growth, which is tracking ahead of DB’s previous 28% recurring earnings growth for the full year. This is mainly driven by 1-2% SSSG, 105 new store openings in 2016, and 160bps yoy expansion in recurring OP margin. In addition, we estimate it booked Rmb80mn interest income from the cash proceeds from the share placement in 2H16. More to be expected in 2017. Last October, management reclassified its core region, Fujian, and loss-making Northeast region to its “quality-focus group”, indicating the majority of business (54% of sales in 2016) will be focused on margin and operating efficiency. We expect 30bps recurring OP margin expansion in 2017, helped by margin improvement in Fujian and the Northeast region. In addition, Yonghui will complete the investment in Damon and could book associate income from 2Q17, which is likely to contribute Rmb90mn net profit in 2017. Revising up TP by 14%; reiterating Buy. We revise earnings in 2017-19E up by 6-14%, to factor in a higher profitability on management’s increasing focus on profitability. We forecast 18% sales and 24% earnings CAGR in 2017-19E. We revise up our TP by 14% to RMB6.50 based on our new earnings forecast. Our DCF approach factors in 9.5% COE, 1.0 beta and 1.5% TGR. Downside risk: competition from on/offline players, weak SSSG, and management capability in nationwide expansion.

Preliminary 1Q17 results Yonghui reported preliminary results for 1Q17 with net profit up 57.55% yoy toRMB743.7m on the back of a 13.76% increase in sales revenue toRMB15.26bn. The company attributed the net profit growth to 1) improvedgross profit margin due to tighter cost control; and 2) increased interestincome resulting from more efficient fund management. Net margin hasexpanded from 3.2%/3.5% in 1Q15/1Q16 to 4.9% in 1Q17. Deutsche Bank comments 1Q17 revenue is 25.4% of our full-year forecast vs. 26.6%/27.3% in 1Q15/1Q16,largely in line with our forecast. We believe that the top-line growth is mainlyfrom 1) accelerating new store opening in 1Q17 as it has 202 stores in thepipeline by the end of 2016; 2) low-single-digit SSSg affected by declined foodCPI in first two months of 2017. Net profit is 53% of our full-year forecast vs 60%/38% in 1Q15/1Q16, higherthan our forecast mainly due to the higher interest income contributed by thecompany’s more efficient fund management and strong cash balance ofRMB8bn by the end of 2016 (2015: RMB4.3bn) as a result of private placementin 2H16. The company has scheduled to report its audited 1Q17 results on 15 April. Wewill have more updates on financials at that time.

2016 recurring profit in lineYili reported 2016 results with revenue of Rmb60,609m and earnings ofRmb5,662m, representing 0.4%/22.2% yoy growth. Excluding the nonrecurringprofit influence of Rmb1,135m (mainly including government subsidyof Rmb1,058m and most received in 4Q16), recurring profit was Rmb4,527m,largely in line with our forecast at Rmb4,623m. By segment, liquid milk/icecream increased 5%/2.4% yoy, while milk powder declined 15.4% yoy. Grossprofit increased 4.7% yoy with GPM expanded 1.5ppt to 37.6% in 2016, partlyoffset by 3.9% increase in SG&A expenses, leading to 0.6ppt improvement onEBIT margin. In 4Q16, sales declined 0.3% yoy to Rmb14,438m. Gross profit decreased12.1% yoy with GPM squeezed 4.6ppt to 34.5%. Thanks to 17.5% decrease inSG&A expenses, EBIT increased 19.3% yoy with EBIT margin of 6.9%. Sales growth driven by high-end productsRetail sales market share of Yili’s dairy was 20% in 2016, up 1.1ppts yoy, withroom temperature liquid milk, low temperature liquid milk and infant formulaexpanded 1.8ppts, 0.6ppts and 0.2ppts to 31.6%, 16.2% and 5% respectively. In 2016, sales of new products and key products accounted for 22.7% and49% of total sales, 7ppts and 3.2ppts higher than 2015, showing continuedimprovement of product mix and strong contribution from new products. 2017 outlook – target 7.2% sales growthManagement guided total revenue of Rmb65bn for 2017, representing yoysales growth of 7.2%. It also targets to reach pre-tax profit of Rmb6.2bn in2017, representing 11% yoy growth if excluding government subsidy from2016 results. The company expects to achieve the targets through newproduct growth, international business expansion, branding enhancement andchannel penetration improvement.

Net profit in line with preliminary result Yonghui reported 2016 results with 16.8% yoy sales growth to Rmb49bn and 105% yoy net profit growth to Rmb1,242m. The result is in-line with its preliminary result announced in January. Excluding Lianhua disposal gain of RMB170m, the core net profit at Rmb1.1bn is also in line with DB forecast. On quarterly basis, the sales increase 14% yoy in 4Q16 and recurring net profit increase 442% on low base. What we like in the result: solid sales growth and margin expansion The 16.8% sales growth has been helped by 1.9% SSSG and 105 new stores in 2016 (488 stores by end-2016). The SSSG should be better than industry average, mainly driven by its 11.3% SSSG for its high-end “Bravo” brands. Meanwhile, its operating margin expands 1.2ppts yoy to 3.3%, helped by improving efficiency in supply chain and stronger control in operating expense. 2017 outlook - new store opening to drive earnings growth Yonghui’s store pipeline has increased by 18 stores to 202 stores by the end of 2016. It will focus in high-end brands, i.e., it targets to open over 100 “Bravo” stores in 2017 and will open it in new provinces. We expect the strong cash balance at Rmb8bn should support its store openings. In addition, we expect Yonghui to book increasing revenue contribution from high-margin private-label products, helped by closer cooperation with Daymon Worldwide, the retailers’ service company it acquired in January 2017. The private-label products could also help it to differentiate from online stores. Reiterating Buy We expect its store opening and improving operating efficiency to drive earnings growth in 2017-18. In the long term, increasing high-end stores and increasing sales from private label should drive its margin expansion. We maintain Buy with target price of Rmb5.7. Our primary valuation methodology is DCF, employing COE of 9.5%, a beta of 1.0 and a TGR of 1.5%, which is in line with the 1-2.5% range we apply for the consumer sector (as China is one of the key drivers in the food retail consolidation globally). Key risks: competition from on/offline players, weak SSSG, and management capability in nationwide expansion.

Sales growth to improve in 2017 Yili attended DB Access China conference this week. Investors’ interest mainlyfocused on its promotion/marketing plan in 2017, impact of raw material costincrease, and new products in next few years. Management expects salesgrowth in 2017 to be better than 2016, helped by improving industryenvironment, high-end product growth, and lower base after splitting upYouran Dairy farm in 2016. It targets a double digit for high-end UHT “Satine”and 20-30% yoy growth for UHT yoghurt “Ambosial”. Liquid milk: expecting less price discount Management believes industry competition could ease down in 2017, as rawmilk cost is bottoming up and small industry players should reduce pricediscount. Meanwhile, higher consolidation level after recent industry’s M&A(i.e. Shengmu and China Modern Dairy) will help to reduce price competition.The management expects to allocate more budget on advertisement forbranding, while reduce low efficient price promotion. Infant formula (“IMF”): intensive competition likely continues in near-term Management expects intensive industry competition to continue in the IMFsector, as it think the benefit of higher consolidation is unlikely to emergebefore Jan 1, 2018 when the new regulation takes effect. Yet the company stillexpects some recovery for its IMF sales, helped by its increasing penetration inbaby stores channel and e-commerce channel, and a cleaner channel stockingcurrently compared to 2016. 4Q16: sales growth to be similar as 9M16 The management expects its sales growth in 4Q16 to be similar as 9M16, i.eflattish or slightly growth. By category, retail sales of “Satine” grew by 10%and “Ambosia” grew by 100% according to AC Nilesen, but this is partly offsetby a sales decline in kids’ milk and milk beverage. Yili’s market share in roomtemperature products, low-temp, and IMF all increased slightly to 33%, 16%and 6.0% in 4Q16 from 31.8%, 15.6%, and 5.7% in 3Q16.

Yili held a conference call today after it announced to raise Rmb9bn from aprivate placement and its plan to acquire 37% interest in China Shengmu(1432.HK). Key takeaways from the call:1) Rationale for the acquisition: Yili expect the market to have increasingdemand on organic milk. Shengmu has 70% market share in organic milk,the acquisition will help Yili to become market leader in this category. Meanwhile, the acquisition will help Yili to have access to internationalcapital market through HK listing company platform. 2) Accounting treatment: If the interest in Shengmu increase to higher than50% after execution of general offer to remaining shareholders, the P&L ofShengmu will consolidated into Yili. If the interest is lower than 50% butYili has control in Shengmu’s Board of Directors, it can also consolidatethe P&L3) Sales and distribution plan for Shengmu: Yili will consolidate Shengmuinto its own operation platform, including 1) using Yili’s distributionnetwork to distribute Shengmu’s downstream products; 2) leveragingYili’s advertisement resources to enhance Shengmu’s branding; 3)improving Shengmu’s working capital though stronger AR management. The management are positive on Shengmu’s long-term growth4) Growth target for share options plan: Yili also announced to issue 60mnshares, including 45mn options and 15mn restricted shares tomanagement. The growth target for exercising option is 30% cumulatednet profit growth from 2015 to 2017, and 45% growth from 2015 to 2017,with an ROE of not lower than 12%. The growth target will include theimpact of Shengmu acquisitions. We expect the acquisition to enhance Yili long-term growth; maintaining Buy. While the share placement could dilute Yili’s EPS in near-term and reduce itsROE, we get more comfort from its planned usage of proceeds, as we believeit is investing in right categories and right products, which should enhance itslong-term growth. We maintain Buy on the stock. Downside risk: food safetyissues and channel stockings.

To issue new shares and acquire China Shengmu Yili announced that it plans to finance Rmb9bn through issuing 587mn sharesto five investors at Rmb15.33/share. The proceeds will be used for theacquisition of 37% interest in China Shengmu (1432.HK) at HK$2.25/share andcapex for high-end products' production. We expect the placement to dilute its2017-18 EPS by 3-4%, but the acquisition and investment in high-end productsshould accelerate its long-term sales growth. We maintain Buy. Near-term EPS will be diluted... The placement will expand Yili’s share outstanding by 9.68% and increase itsnet cash from an already-high level – Rmb10bn (as of 2016/6/30) to a higherlevel of Rmb19bn. If Shengmu’s financials are consolidated from 2017, theplacement will still dilute Yili’s EPS by 3-4% in 2017-18E. Meanwhile, weexpect the placement to enhance the stability of the management, given localgovernment (currently the largest shareholder)’s interest in Yili will increasefrom 8.79% before placement to 12.92% after placement. …but acquisition and investment should enhance its long-term growth We expect synergies from acquiring Shengmu, helped by Yili’s strongdistribution network and Shengmu’s niche product positioning. Yili will alsospend the proceeds on capacity expansion for high-end products, includingimported UHT, yoghurt, and plant-based milk, which are all core drivers in thedairy sector. We expect Yili’s sales growth to accelerate in the long term,making the transactions EPS incremental from a long-term view. Maintaining Buy We are concerned that the share placement could dilute Yili’s EPS in the nearterm and reduce its ROE, given Yili currently has enough owned cash foracquisition, even without a share placement. However, we get more comfortfrom its planned use of the proceeds, as we believe it is investing in the rightcategories and products, which should enhance its long-term growth. Wemaintain Buy. Downside risks: food safety issues and channel stocking.

To extend suspension by up to 20 days Yili held a board meeting today, and announced it will extend its tradingsuspension by 20 days at most. To recap, Yili has suspended trading since 19September owing to the potential share placement to Inner MongoliaCommunications Investment Co. LTD (“IMCI”), an SOE wholly owned by InnerMongolia Development and Reform Commission. How long could a Shanghai listed stock be suspended for share placement According to the guidance of the Shanghai Exchanges, the suspension shouldbe no longer than 10 days, but with granting periods:n Stage 1: incremental 5 days by the company’s application; Stage 2: incremental 20 days with approval of board meeting (Yili is now atthis stage); andn Stage 3: incremental 2 months with approval of shareholders’ generalmeetings The company should disclose its detailed placement plan during thesuspension period. If the company cannot not disclose a detailed plan, itshould terminate the process and should not initiate a similar plan for onemonth (stage 2) or two months (stage 3). Yili to inject Rmb6bn cash into Hong Kong subsidiary Yili also announced that it is to increase the registered capital of Hong KongJingang Trading Holding Limited (100% subsidiary) by Rmb6bn. The mainbusiness of the Hong Kong subsidiary is investment and trading, according tothe announcement. We think the cash injection could facilitate potential futureoverseas investment.