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研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
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金风科技 电力设备行业 2014-06-05 9.39 9.10 60.77% 10.00 6.50%
10.00 6.50% -- 详细
Event: A Politburo meeting held on 26 May pointed out “…, efforts shall be made to improve local participation in the resource development, utilization and transformation process, and accelerate Xinjiang’s opening-up”. China Securities Journal also reported that the central government will introduce relevant policies based on the actual demand of Xinjiang government and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corp on the upcoming Xinjiang Working Conference, Comments: Deeply rooted in Xinjiang to lead the region’s alternative energy construction. Born and rooted in Xinjiang, the Company has ~70% wind turbine market share in the region. When Xinjiang New Energy Group was established, the Company’s chairman Mr. Wu Gang was appointed as chairman of the Group, indicating that the Company is highly recognized in the region. Before the upcoming Xinjiang Working Symposium to be held in Jun, a Politburo meeting held at end-May pointed out “…, efforts shall be made to improve local participation in the resource development, utilization and transformation process, and accelerate Xinjiang’s opening-up”. In our view, the Symposium and the Politburo meeting will be consistent with this cabinet’s initial efforts to boost the “Silk Road” construction; accelerated development of energy in this region will be bound to stage a pleasant landscape during the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods, which can be perceived from the Group’s target-3GW of installed alternative energy capacity at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The Company will inevitably benefit from and lead the development in the region. In the first year for offshore wind power, the Company is expected to become a leader. In 2014, the long-awaited “offshore wind power benchmark tariff” is about to be launched in the context of mature marine engineering equipment and great importance attributed to marine economy. By 2013, domestic installed offshore wind power capacity stood at 428.6MW, in which, the Company’s installed capacity (109.5MW) represented 25.5%, ranking behind Sinovel Wind Group (601558). The Company’s wind turbines have been in offshore service for more than one year, leading its competitors in terms of accumulated experience and customer awareness. In our view, domestic offshore wind power sector still has a long way to go compared with the 5GW target during the 12th Five-Year Plan period; the Company will fully benefit from a string of policies for offshore wind power development with high possibility to become an offshore wind power leader and model. 1H14E net profit is forecast to soar by 250-300%, and orders hit a new high. Due to seasonal factor, 1Q earnings have been a full-year low for the Company, and 2-4Q will gradually see a peak for earnings. The Company’s 1H14E net profit is forecast to soar by 250-300%, well above consensus forecast (150%). Thus its 2Q14E net profit is estimated to be ~Rmb280-320mn (+354-431% YoY), marking its record earnings other than wind sector’s peak of Rmb340/520mn in 2009/10. Its 8.13GW of orders hit a record high, which, from a micro perspective, heralds the sector’s upbeat climate and the Company’s favorable operation trend. Double engines (wind power generator/wind farms) will warrant earnings growth in future. The Company’s attributable installed wind power capacity stood at 1.3GW by end-2013, and is projected to increase to 2.2/3.0GW in 2014/15E; power generation business alone is expected to accrue Rmb0.95/1.3bn in profit in 2015/16E, which will pave the way for its earnings growth in future. Potential risks. (i) slower-than-expected power grid construction, and (ii) excessive reduction in benchmark tariff for wind power. Share price catalysts: (i) holding of Xinjiang working symposium, (ii) frequent rollout of policies for offshore wind power development; and (iii) unveiling of measures for the administration of renewable energy quotas. Earnings forecast and valuation. We lift the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS to Rmb0.50/0.80/1.10 (from Rmb0.42/0.68/0.88), and raise its target price to Rmb15. Reiterate “BUY” rating.
永贵电器 交运设备行业 2014-04-02 18.82 10.69 -- 33.17 16.80%
27.00 43.46%
详细
Investment Highlights The Company guided a 220~250% growth in 1Q14E net profit. In the1Q14 earnings guidance, the Company forecast to register Rmb17.86~19.53mn in net profit attributable to shareholders, implying EPS of Rmb0.18-0.19. The EPS grew220-250%YoY, thanks mainly to surging revenue from EMU connectors. In 2013, it logged Rmb225/66.34mn in turnover/net profit (+43%/27% YoY). Accelerated growthin orders will fuel high earnings growth in 2014E.Based onthe Company’s announcement, it has won~Rmb100mn in orders throughout 2013, and Rmb60.36mn worth of orders YTDin 2014, showing accelerated pace in order acquisition. Among its customers,CSR Qingdao Sifang has awarded it many orders for 250/350km/hEMUs in succession. On28Jan 14, the Company became a connector supplier for the CRH5 EMU, railway trains, and urban rail trains of CNRChangchun Railway Vehicles,pointing to accelerating connector localization at CNR. In 2013, China Railway Corporation (CRC) completed two tenders forEMUs, and the Company is one of thelargestcomponents beneficiaries. Business climate of the sector is upbeat. 2014-15E will seea peak for EMUdeliveries, which will keep underpinningthebusiness climate of therailway equipmentsector. At the beginningof 2014,CRC set forth a plan on kicking start Rmb630bn in fixed asset investment and putting6,600km of new railway lines in operation. In our view, along with stead growth of China’srail transitsector,the connector segment boasts high growthpotential. The Company’sshare in the EMU connector market is expected to exceed 25% in 2015Efrom an estimated 15% in 2013. Besides CSR, the Company wasrecently allowed to supply connectors to CRH5 EMUof CNR. Meanwhile, the robust constructionof urban rail transit system across China over thenext five years, and kick-off of intra-cityvehicle(120-140km/h) construction in Wenzhouimply there is a relativelyhuge market in future. Inorganic development isexpected. In addition torail operations, the Company has been smoothly promoting electric vehicleconnectorwith an estimated market share of 20-30% in 2013. With rapid development of domestic electric vehicle market (500k units of electric vehicles in 2015E imply anRmb2.5-3.0bn worth of market for connector manufacturers), the Company is expected to grow rapidly as theonly localconnectorsupplier. Moreover, promotion of wind power connector, communicationsconnector, and other business also go well,and it is expected to get the license for defense connectorproductionin 2014E. As at end-3Q13, cash and cash equivalent of the Company tallied Rmb570mn, and its debt ratio stood at only 6.4%. This will effectively support itsinorganic development and consistent M&As in the future. Watch for theM&Amoves in future. Potential risks.(i) Slower-than-expected delivery of orders for light rails, (ii) decline in consolidated gross margin, and (iii) slower-than-expected progress in businesses other than rail operations. Earnings forecast and valuation. According to the Company’s earnings guidance, we slightly trim its 2013E EPS to Rmb0.65 (from Rmb0.66), and project its 2014/15E EPS to be Rmb0.90/1.18, suggestingaCAGR 38%. As a supplierof core components, it boasts high barriers; and thevisible earnings growth in 2014E will create space for it to expandstrategic presence. We see a likelihood of upward earnings revision in the future. Out of expectations forits horizontal and vertical extension,we reiteratethe“BUY”ratingwith target price of Rmb36(implying 2014E PE of 40x).
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名