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贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2018-02-02 767.00 778.95 14.53% 756.56 -1.36%
756.56 -1.36%
详细
Net profit up 58% yoy in 2017; in line with market expectation Kweichow Moutai issued a profit alert on 31Jan 2018and announced that itsnet profit increased 58% yoy to Rmb26.4bn in 2017. On quarterly basis, the 4Q17profit grew 51% yoy to Rmb6.4bn. The net profit growth was driven by: 1) "FeitianMoutai" sales volume, increased 34% yoy to 31,000tons; 2) 10% ASP increaseof Moutai liquor due to increasing sales portion of super premium products; and3) Lower SG&A/sales ratio due to improved operating efficiency and operatingleverage. The result was in line with its operation update announcement in Dec 2017ofa 58% yoy increase in profit before tax. It is also in line with our forecast atRmb26.2bn in 2017and market's consensus (Wind) at Rmb25.4bn. Long-term growth potential remains intact We think the strong net profit growth is not a surprise to the market. We maintainBuy on the stock for its strong branding and increasing channel control; yet inthe near-term, the potential over supply risk might assert pressure on its retailprice and market sentiments. We maintain our target price at Rmb790based onDCF model (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate). Downsiderisks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; government policy changes; foodsafety incidents.
五粮液 食品饮料行业 2018-01-16 91.20 96.20 47.77% 92.50 1.43%
92.50 1.43%
详细
Still needs more time before next price hike Investors' questions focus on whether Wuliangye will raise its ex-factory prices.Management did not rule out the possibility of an increase in time, especiallyafter Moutai's price hike. However, it thinks that more time is needed, given thatchannel profit has only been stable for one year. The company's priority currentlyis to maintain channel profit margins and to strengthen the retail price stability. Target 30% yoy sales growth in 2018 Management is confident it can reach its target. Key sales drivers will be: 1)mainstream Wuliangye to grow by 18% from 17,000tons in 2017to 30,000tonsin 2018; 2) price increase through raising the portion of "out of plan" volume from10% in 2017to 50% in 2018, implying a 5% price increase; and 3) incrementalsales of mass market sub brands to RMB10bn in 2018– it targets to build upone sub brand with RMB2bn sales, and 2-3sub brands with RMB1bn sales bythe end of 2020. To increase channel penetration through its "10thousand project" Management aims to increase its penetration through a “hundreds of cities,thousands of counties, and ten thousand stores” program. By the end of 2017,it had built up 7,000core POS and 1,000Wuliangye specialty stores. It targetsto increase to 8,000core POS and 1,500specialty stores in 2018. The channelexpansion will be a key driver for its 30% growth target. Meanwhile, throughinstalling IT systems at the retail end, the company will have stronger control inchannel inventory and better understanding of the market. Our view: don't leave the party too early We like Wuliangye for its lower risk in channel de-stocking, especially afterMoutai price increase and with the approach of Chinese New Year. We expect thecompany to enter a secular growth period in 2018-19, and its earnings to register29% CAGR in 2018-20E, driven by management’s strong incentives for growthand expanding the high end liquor market after the increase in Moutai price. Wereiterate our Buy rating with TP of RMB98based on DCF approach. Downsiderisk: channel de-stocking in the high-end liquor sector; food safety; worse-thanexpectedmacro FAI slow down.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2018-01-16 35.02 34.20 26.81% 35.93 2.60%
35.93 2.60%
详细
4Q sales growth slowing down due to late Chinese New Year Management expects sales growth in 4Q17to slow down from 18% in 3Q17,due to shorter peak season falling in 4Q17with a later 2018Chinese New Yearseason. For the full year 2017, it expects sales growth to achieve double digit,core margins (exclude government subsidy) to expand, and net profit to achievepositive growth. The sales growth has been mainly driven by increasing demandand increasing market share in the lower tier region. The management indicatesthat the industry sales grew by 7% in 2017, with 8-10% growth in lower tier regionand 5-6% in high tier regions. Industry competition could ease down in 2018 Management expects the good demand growth to continue in the near-term. Thekey sales driver will be UHT yoghurt and high end UHT milk. The competitioncould ease down thanks to a more balanced raw milk supply. Yet there will beincreasing cost pressure due to rising raw material cost. Unless there is a sharpincrease in raw milk price, the management does not expect a like-for-like pricehike, but it will reduce price promotion to partly offset the cost increase. Soy milk contribution is still limited in early stage Yili launched soy milk with the brand "plant selected" in January. It currently hastwo SKUs for soy milk , the original taste priced at Rmb4.0/pack and the black soybean priced at Rmb4.6/pack. The company is positive on the sector and estimatethe industry market size to be Rmb100bn. In 2018, it expects soy milk sales shouldbe a few hundreds million, and think it is still too early to achieve break even dueto initial marketing spendings. Our view: growth story intact Yili's guidance is in line with our expectations. We expect its market share couldcontinue to increase in 2018with industry competition slowing. Meanwhile, thesoy milk and new SKUs continues to be key sales drivers. As industry leader, webelieve Yili could pass through the cost inflation by reducing price promotion andultimately price hikes. We reiterate Buy on Yili. Downside risks: food safety, andoversupply.
五粮液 食品饮料行业 2018-01-09 82.59 96.20 47.77% 93.18 12.82%
93.18 12.82%
详细
Entering secular growth cycle After Wuliangye's 130% share price hike in past 12month, market has increasingconcerns on whether there is still upside. Our view is positive. We expect thecompany to enter a secular growth period in 2018-19, and its earnings to growat 29% CAGR in 2018-20, driven by management’s strong incentives for growthand expanding high end liquor market after Moutai raising price. We revise upour target price to Rmb98, implying 27x 2018P/E. We reiterate Buy. Management has strong incentive to drive sales and improve efficiency During 1218distributor meeting, Wuliangye management indicates to achievegross sales of Rmb40bn in 2018and Rmb60bn in 2020(vs Rmb30bn in 2017E).Management will invest in channel penetration, brand building and productsstreamlining to drive sales growth. Helped by completion of management sharesincentive schemes and strong support from Wuliangye group, we believe thecompany could achieve its target. Moutai’s price hike to release more market for Wuliangye On Dec 29, Moutai announced to raise ex-factory price by 18% to Rmb969/bottle,and set retail price at Rmb1499/bottle. As a result, the ex-factory price gap ofMoutai over Wuliangye expands from 10% to 30%. We believe Wuliangye is thebiggest beneficiary of the price hike, helped by the expanding high end liquormarket room released by Moutai. We reiterate Buy; revising up TP to Rmb98 We are revising up our earnings forecast by 13%-42% for 2018-2020to factor in abetter volume growth, mix upgrade, and margin expansion, and revise up targetprice by 40% to Rmb98based on DCF model. We are changing our valuationmethodology from EV/EBITDA to DCF as we believe DCF model can incorporatelong-term growth and solid cash flow. Downside risk: channel de-stocking inhigh-end liquor sector; food safety; worse than expected macro FAI slow down.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-11-20 696.00 734.58 8.01% 688.80 -1.03%
799.06 14.81%
详细
Restocking cycle to continue; revising up TP to Rmb745. We estimate Moutai’s current channel inventory equals six months of Moutai'sreal consumption, indicating there is still room for distributors and high-wealthindividuals to fill up their warehouses. More importantly, this would leavemanagement time to deal with the channel stocking problem. Meanwhile, weidentify three possible catalysts that might trigger channel de-stocking, andbefore these catalysts are triggered, we expect less risk of a strong de-stocking. We are revising up Moutai’s TP to Rmb745 and we maintain Buy. Current channel inventory equals six months of real consumption. We think Moutai’s strong sales recovery from 2016 has been mainly driven byboth channel restocking and a consumption upgrade. Therefore, it is importantfor investors to gauge the water line in the channels. Based on historical channelinventory movement, Moutai’s ex-factory supply, and Moutai’s real consumptionpattern, we estimate that currently there are 12,000 tons of Moutai in distributors'and investors' warehouses, representing six months of real consumption in 2017. Compared with the peak level of 12 months in 2012, this implies there is roomfor channels to stock up (Figure 1). Three catalysts that could trigger channel de-stocking in next 12 months. Distributors are building up channel stocking because they expect the retail priceto continue to go up. Therefore, whenever such an expectation weakens, thecycle could turn from restocking to de-stocking. We identify three events thatmight lead to weakened expectation: 1) Moutai strictly implements a fixed pricee-commerce policy; 2) Moutai raises its ex-factory price at an inappropriate time;and 3) the retail price rises to Rmb2000 suddenly, which is the peak level in the lastcycle. Before these catalysts happen, we believe risk-reward remains attractivefor a Buy on the stock. Maintaining Buy. Moutai's management is undertaking several measures, including implementingprice guidance, increasing supply and implementing an e-commerce policy, tostabilize the retail price. We expect these measures to push distributors to releasechannel inventory gradually (instead of suddenly). We are revising up our TP toRmb745 based on the DCF method (factoring in 9.5% WACC and 2% TG). Wereiterate Buy. Downside risk: sudden channel de-stocking.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-11-06 29.70 30.87 14.46% 33.26 11.99%
35.93 20.98%
详细
Strong sales growth on recovering sector growth and market sharegains. We estimate the industry retail growth recovered from low singledigit in 3Q16 to high single digit in 3Q17, helped by less price discounton more balanced supply. Meanwhile, Yili's market share in Ambient/chilled products/IMF expanded from 31%/15%/5.7% to 34%/16%/6%respectively (Figure 1). Selling expense/sales ratio declined 100bps yoy to 21.9%, helped byeasing of competition within a more balanced supply environment. G&A expense declined 150bps yoy to 6.2% from a high base, as Yiliincurred incremental G&A for some one-off event (i.e. internal propertymaintenance). SG&A expense savings was partly offset by 102bps yoy decline in grossmargin, due to rising raw milk and packaging prices. Improving inventory turnover indicates that 4Q growth to remain strong. Inventory days improved from 31.9 days in 3Q16 to 30 days in 3Q17. Given theproduction date is an important decision factor when consumers choose brandsin retail ends, the shorten inventory days indicate improving fresh level of theproducts, which should help to drive its sales growth in 4Q17. The improvinginventory days also indicate a more balanced supply and demand market. We expect the recovery trend to continue with an under supply environment. We believe Yili's growth recovery from 2Q is mainly driven by more balancedsupply from 2017. After three years capacity reductions for upstream dairy farmsfrom 2014, raw milk supply is becoming more balanced with demand from 2017. During the over supply environment, smaller dairy players could source raw milkat a heavy discount compared with large brands, but during the under supply environment from 2017, smaller players need to pay a premium instead. This helpslarge players such as Yili and Mengniu to gain market share. Reiterating Buy. We are revising up our earnings forecast by 2-4% in 2017-19E, mainly to factorin higher-than-expected sales driven by Yili's market share gains. We revise upour TP by 13% to Rmb31.6 based on a DCF approach, factoring in a 9.5% WACC(3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% terminal growth. Wereiterate Yili as our top pick among our A share coverage. Downside risks: higherthan-expected raw material price increase, food safety incidents and worse-thanexpectedcompetition.
五粮液 食品饮料行业 2017-11-02 68.85 68.72 5.56% 76.76 11.49%
93.18 35.34%
详细
3Q17earnings beat on higher sales growth and lower selling expense Wuliangye reported 3Q17results with 43% yoy sales growth to RMB6,356m and64% yoy net profit growth to RMB1,993m. Net profit in the first nine months grewby 37%, tracking ahead of the market's full-year growth forecast of 26%.The earning beat is mainly attributable to higher-than-expected sales growthand a lower SG&A expense ratio, which declined 670bps yoy to 19.6% in9M17, helped by lower channel subsidy and operating leverage. To recap, thecompany increased channel subsidy during 2014-16, when channel profit waslow/negative. As the retail price recovered from 2017, the company began toremove the channel subsidies. Adjusted sales declined 15% on increasing competition and a high base If adjusted by advances from customers (sales + changes in advance balance), theadjusted sales declined 15% yoy in 3Q17, which could be lower than the marketexpectation. This is partly because of the high base in 3Q16. The company raisedits ex-factory price in September 2016. Distributors increased their procurementvolume before the price hikes, resulting in higher advances and sales in 3Q16. Onthe other side, Wuliangye revised down the supply volume for distributors in 3Q17to streamline the pricing system. We think this is also partly due to increasingsupply from Moutai from Aug 15to Sep 30. We expect the adjusted sales to pickup on recovering retail prices. Needs more brand investment instead of simply controlling volumes For the near term, we expect Wuliangye's earnings growth to remain strong,helped by alternative demand from Moutai and new management's increasingefforts in channel building. Furthermore, savings in channel subsidy should alsodrive its margin expansion. However, we are a bit concerned about management's over-focus on supportingthe retail price. Wuliangye indicated that it is reducing supply volume todistributors by 25% to strengthen the retail price. In such a case, wheneverMoutai increases its sales volume, Wuliangye's volume and price could be underpressure, as we saw in 3Q. For the long term, a sustainable retail price dependsmore on branding than the supply and demand situation.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-10-31 641.50 640.90 -- 719.96 12.23%
799.06 24.56%
详细
Around 70% yoy volume growth for mainstream Moutai (DB estimates).To recap, Moutai indicated on August 28that it supplied 6,200tons ofliquor (including 5,600tons of "Feitian Moutai" and 600tons of otherSKUs) between August 15and September 30, to meet the strong demandduring National Holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival, implying 70% yoygrowth. Strong growth of super premium Moutai. We estimated that most of 600tons of other SKU are super premium Moutai. This drives mix-upgrade formainstream Moutai. Strong growth of mass market Moutai products. According to news fromMoutai website, mass market Moutai sales increased over 200% yoyin the first 9months. This is a result of Moutai's "133" brand strategy(one core brand, three strategy brands - Huamao, Wangmao, Laimao,and three key brands - Hanjiang, Renjiu and Wangzi). Meanwhile, thenumber of domestic distributors increased by 634YTD to 2,965, mainlyfor penetration of mass market Moutai. Net margin expanded 440bps yoy on operating leverage Moutai's gross margin was stable at 75% in 3Q17, as the impact from lowermargin mass-market products was offset by high margin customized Moutai.Selling expense ratio increased 20bps yoy to 3.2%, due to increasing A&P expensefor its "133" brand strategy and "5+5" channel strategy (5core markets and 5potential markets). G&A expense ratio declined 480bps yoy , mainly helped byoperating leverage. Increasing transparency in revenue recognition Moutai booked most ex-factory shipments as revenue in 3Q17. This is differentfrom market's and our expectation that it would allocate the shipments into salesand advances from customer accounts. Therefore, advances from customers were stable at Rmb17bn on Sep 30(vs Rmb18bn on June 30). This partlycontributed to the results beat in 3Q. We believe this implies increasingtransparency and improving cooperate governance for the company.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-10-02 29.70 27.36 1.45% 33.26 11.99%
35.93 20.98%
详细
Industry recovery and market share gains through high-end products.We expect the liquid milk industry to grow by 6% in 3Q17(vs. 7% in 1H17)and Yili's market share in liquid milk to increase from 33.6% in June to34% in September. High-end products, including UHT yoghurt, high-endyoghurt and pro biotic drinks, are the key sales drivers. Meanwhile, weexpect the lower tier region and special channel to deliver higher salesgrowth helped by Yili's increasing penetrations. Our recent channel check indicates that its sales growth remainsstrong in 3Q. The Shanghai distributor indicated that its room temperateproducts grew at 8% in both 1H17and 3Q; the Shenzhen distributorindicated its sales grew at higher than 10% YTD. Meanwhile, we find thatMengniu and Yili are revising up ex-factory price and retail price from July,implying that industry competition continues to ease down. 90bps yoy expansion of recurring EBIT margin. Our recent channelcheck indicates the price competition is stabilizing. We believe themore balanced supply/demand in upstream should also lead to a stablecompetition environment. Accordingly, we forecast a yoy flattish sellingexpense/sales ratio in 3Q17. The yoy EBIT margin expansion is mainlyhelped by lower G&A/sales from a high base in 3Q16, while partly offsetby lower gross margin on rising packaging cost and milk powder price. Sales growth to accelerate in 2017-19 Liquid milk growth is recovering from low single digits in 2016to high single digitsin 2017. Firstly, we think this is mainly helped by more balanced supply from2017, and we expect raw milk cycle to turn from over-supply in 2014-16to undersupplyin 2018-19. Secondly, the recovery is also helped by trading up demandfrom low-end milk beverage to pure milk and yoghurt. Thirdly, this is helped byYili's increasing penetration in lower tier regions and special channels. We believethese drivers are sustainable. We forecast Yili's sales CAGR to improve from 8%in 2014-16to 11% in 2017-18E.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-09-26 641.50 542.30 -- 719.96 12.23%
799.06 24.56%
详细
Retail price declined from Rmb1550/bottle in July to Rmb1330-1350in the past two weeks in both Shenzhen and Shanghai. This is likelymainly due to increasing supply from Moutai from August 15andimplementation of 30% sales on the e-commerce platform policy. Theretail price of other customized Moutai which the company didn't enforcea price control kept rising. For example, the 350ml Moutai's retail priceincreased from Rmb1000/bottle in January to Rmb2000/bottle currently.Sales volume: The Shanghai distributor indicated that it has used up itsfull year procurement quota in 2017, and is currently beginning to usethe 1Q18quota. This implies that the distributors' actual sales volumein first nine month has achieved its full year target. To recap, Mr. WangChonglin, director of Moutai group sales company, said that the companywould sell 5600tons Feitian Moutai and 600tons of customized Moutaibetween 8/15to 9/30.。 Channel stockings: The Shanghai distributor believed there are somedemands from channel restockings, especially for private owneddistributors and wholesalers. However the Shenzhen distributor indicateda different current purchase behavior - with consumers typically buyingMoutai in cases, while normally buying Moutai in bottles - we think thisalso implies consumers are stocking up.。 Impacts from "restricting drinking liquor" policy from some localgovernments announced recently. Both Shenzhen and Shanghaidistributors feel the impact is limited, because they think 1) this is nota new regulation given there is already a similar regulation from 2012;2) the public sector's purchase portion is already low, which is less than30% according to the Shanghai distributor.。 Impacts from Moutai Cloud E-commerce platform (Moutai Yunshang).。 The distributors indicate that the real impacts will depend on how strictMoutai will monitor the sales volume on the platform. Though distributorsare required to put 30% of volume on the platform to sell at Rmb1299。
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-09-04 23.40 24.23 -- 31.39 34.15%
34.15 45.94%
详细
OP margin expanded 120bps to 12.2% in 2Q17, helped by 245bps expansion inGP margin due to better product mix and stablizing raw material price, while partlyoffset by higher A&P expense ratio. Three reasons for the strong sales recovery Yili's recurring sales growth improved from 6% yoy in 1Q17to 20% in 2Q17.We think this is mainly due to three reasons. Firstly, consumer staple sectorgenerally saw demand recovery from 2Q17, helped by recovering infrastructureand property investment from 2016and a lower base; secondly, competition inliquid milk is easing, thanks to more balanced supply and demand; and thirdly,Yili's strong distribution network and branding in high-end products makes it wellpositioned in the recovery. We believe these reasons should continue to driveYili's sales in the near-term. Reiterating Buy We revise up our earnings forecast by 10-12% in 2017-19E, mainly to factor inhigher sales growth driven by industry recovery and Yili's product mix upgrade.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-08-21 492.80 542.30 -- 497.29 0.91%
719.96 46.10%
详细
To increase ex-factory volume from August 15 Kweichow Moutai will supply more than 4500tons of mainstream "FeitianMoutai" between 15August to 30September, according to the media reportsfrom China Securities Daily. This implies 100tons/day during the peak season.Meanwhile, the company has delivered 150tons on August 15according to thenews. Through increasing supply, Moutai management aims to ease down thesupply shortage in retail end during the peak consumption seasons (Mid-AutumnFestival and National Holidays). It also target to control the retail price belowRmb1299/bottle. This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17 This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17for main stream products, if itdelivers more than 100tons per day from August 15. To recap, Moutai's dailyvolume was 55tons in 3Q16, and we estimate the daily volume was 60-70tonsbefore August 15. In addition, we expect its average selling price for premiumMoutai continue to increase driven by increasing portion of super premiumcustomized Moutai. This is higher than 36% yoy sales growth in 1H17andconsensus estimates at 20% yoy sales growth for 2H17. Channel restocking to continue; maintaining Buy In next 6month, Moutai will experience two traditional peak consumptionseasons - the mid-Autumn festival & National holiday in October and Chinese NewYear in Feb 2018. We expect supply shortage to continue, driven by increasingretail demand and distributor's channel stocking up. Our recent channel checkin Shanghai and Beijing also indicates that most retail stores are running out ofinventories. (For Moutai's re-stocking and de-stocking cycle history, please referto report "The restocking cycle is just beginning; reiterating Buy" ) . Within theshortage environment, we expect Moutai to increase its sales volume and reportaccelerating sales growth. We maintain Buy.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-07-31 471.00 542.30 -- 501.10 6.39%
719.96 52.86%
详细
Net profit growth accelerate in 2Q17 Kweichow Moutai reported 1H17 results with sales increased 33.1% toRMB24.19bn and net profit increased 27.8% yoy to RMB11.25bn, in line withour forecast at 11bn. Gross margin declined 2.3ppt to 89.6% in 1H17, mainlydue to faster sales growth form lower-end sub-brands. Management increasedmarketing efforts on lower end brands and its SG&A/sales ratio increased1.7ppt YoY to 14.1% in 1H17. In 2Q17, revenue/NPAT was up 33%/31% yoy, accelerated from +33%/+25%yoy in 1Q17. According to our channel check, Moutai's main products are stillshort of supply even in traditional slack season post Chinese New Yearholidays. We believe this is driven by industry demand recovery anddistributors' channel re-stockings with expectations of retail price hikes. As aresult, the advance from consumers is largely stable at Rmb17.8bn by end-2Q17, which is only 6% lower than 1Q17 even within a slack season. Maintaining Buy We reiterate Buy on Moutai due to its high earnings visibility backed byindustry demand recovery and channel restocking. Our TP at Rmb550 is basedon DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate). Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; governmentpolicy changes; food safety incidents.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-07-11 446.88 542.30 -- 487.96 9.19%
683.40 52.93%
详细
Moutai Group: sales and earnings growth accelerate QoQ in 2Q17 On July 10, Moutai Group (the controlling shareholder of list-co Kweichou Moutai)indicated that sales (VAT included) increased 31% yoy to RMB31bn and profitbefore tax ("PBT") increased 24% yoy to RMB16bn in 1H17, according to newsrelease from its official website. This news implies Moutai Group's sales/earningsgrowth is accelerating from 24%/13% in 1Q17 to 40%/36% in 2Q17. According to the news, the strong growth has been mainly driven by 1) goodgrowth from high-end customized liquor and lower-end sub-brands; 2) overseassale; and 3) strong demand for main stream "Feitian Moutai". It indicates Moutai'smain products are still short of supply even in traditional slack season postChinese New Year holidays. Further, we believe this is also driven by distributors'channel re-stockings with expectations of retail price hikes (refer to our report"The restocking cycle is just beginning " published on June 22). Implications for the Listco: 1H17 growth tracks ahead of market consensus The listco Kweichou Moutai ("Moutai")'s sales/earnings growth trend tracksclosely with Moutai Group (refer to 1) since 2012, and the listco's sales accountsfor 93% of Moutai Group's total revenue in 2016. We believe it indicates thatlistco's sales/earnings growth also speed up QoQ in 2Q17. The sales/earningsgrowth of Moutai group in 1H17 is higher than market forecasts at 20%/25% forthe listco in 2017. We reiterate Buy on the stock. We expect above-mentioned drivers, especially thechannel restocking, to drive its sales growth in the near term. Our TP at Rmb550is based on DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growthrate). Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; governmentpolicy changes; food safety incidents.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-06-26 465.97 534.23 -- 477.78 2.53%
501.10 7.54%
详细
Channel restocking to be more relevant driver in 2H17-18 Revisiting Different from the market consensus that Moutai’s recent recovery has been driven mainly by recovering private consumption, we expect channel restocking to be a stronger growth driver from 2017. Based on our proprietary channel models, we think Moutai entered a new restocking cycle from late 2016 and this new cycle will continue in 2017-19. As indicated by historical experience, Moutai often increases its supply and raises ex-factory prices during a re-stocking cycle. Raising TP by 34%, to Rmb550, and reiterating Buy. Revisiting the channel restocking and destocking cycles of 2009-16 Owing to Moutai’s unique nature ? long shelf value, high-value items and limited supply perception, channel players demonstrate a strong impetus to store up on Moutai’s products when a price appreciation expectation emerges. In 2009-12, Moutai’s growth was driven firstly by demand recovery from infrastructure investments, and then by channel restocking, due to (and resulting in) a retail price hike expectation. In 2013-16, demand for Moutai’s products was firstly affected by anti-extravagant measures and then by channel destocking, which resulted in a retail price collapse. Entering a new restocking cycle from 2017 After building a channel inventory model, we find that, owing to heavy channel destocking and increasing consumption in 2013-16, Moutai’s current channel stocking is at a seven-year low. From 2017, driven by price appreciation expectations, Moutai has started to enter a new channel restocking cycle. We expect this cycle to continue into 2017-19. As a reaction to the restocking cycles, we expect Moutai to increase its supply and raise its ex-factory prices in the near term. Raising target price (TP) by 34%; reiterating Buy; risks We raise our TP by 34%, to Rmb550, based on a DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate), and we reiterate our Buy rating. Moutai is trading at 22x 2018E P/E, with a 24% earnings CAGR in 2016-19E, compared with its peers’ average P/E of 24x. Reiterating Buy. Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; government policy changes; food safety incidents.
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