金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
Mark Yuan

德意志银

研究方向:

联系方式:

工作经历:

20日
短线
9.09%
(--)
60日
中线
9.09%
(--)
买入研报查询: 按股票 按研究员 按机构 高级查询 意见反馈
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/3 转到  

最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-11-06 29.70 31.60 -- 32.46 9.29% -- 32.46 9.29% -- 详细
Strong sales growth on recovering sector growth and market sharegains. We estimate the industry retail growth recovered from low singledigit in 3Q16 to high single digit in 3Q17, helped by less price discounton more balanced supply. Meanwhile, Yili's market share in Ambient/chilled products/IMF expanded from 31%/15%/5.7% to 34%/16%/6%respectively (Figure 1). Selling expense/sales ratio declined 100bps yoy to 21.9%, helped byeasing of competition within a more balanced supply environment. G&A expense declined 150bps yoy to 6.2% from a high base, as Yiliincurred incremental G&A for some one-off event (i.e. internal propertymaintenance). SG&A expense savings was partly offset by 102bps yoy decline in grossmargin, due to rising raw milk and packaging prices. Improving inventory turnover indicates that 4Q growth to remain strong. Inventory days improved from 31.9 days in 3Q16 to 30 days in 3Q17. Given theproduction date is an important decision factor when consumers choose brandsin retail ends, the shorten inventory days indicate improving fresh level of theproducts, which should help to drive its sales growth in 4Q17. The improvinginventory days also indicate a more balanced supply and demand market. We expect the recovery trend to continue with an under supply environment. We believe Yili's growth recovery from 2Q is mainly driven by more balancedsupply from 2017. After three years capacity reductions for upstream dairy farmsfrom 2014, raw milk supply is becoming more balanced with demand from 2017. During the over supply environment, smaller dairy players could source raw milkat a heavy discount compared with large brands, but during the under supply environment from 2017, smaller players need to pay a premium instead. This helpslarge players such as Yili and Mengniu to gain market share. Reiterating Buy. We are revising up our earnings forecast by 2-4% in 2017-19E, mainly to factorin higher-than-expected sales driven by Yili's market share gains. We revise upour TP by 13% to Rmb31.6 based on a DCF approach, factoring in a 9.5% WACC(3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% terminal growth. Wereiterate Yili as our top pick among our A share coverage. Downside risks: higherthan-expected raw material price increase, food safety incidents and worse-thanexpectedcompetition.
五粮液 食品饮料行业 2017-11-02 68.85 70.00 -- 76.76 11.49% -- 76.76 11.49% -- 详细
3Q17earnings beat on higher sales growth and lower selling expense Wuliangye reported 3Q17results with 43% yoy sales growth to RMB6,356m and64% yoy net profit growth to RMB1,993m. Net profit in the first nine months grewby 37%, tracking ahead of the market's full-year growth forecast of 26%.The earning beat is mainly attributable to higher-than-expected sales growthand a lower SG&A expense ratio, which declined 670bps yoy to 19.6% in9M17, helped by lower channel subsidy and operating leverage. To recap, thecompany increased channel subsidy during 2014-16, when channel profit waslow/negative. As the retail price recovered from 2017, the company began toremove the channel subsidies. Adjusted sales declined 15% on increasing competition and a high base If adjusted by advances from customers (sales + changes in advance balance), theadjusted sales declined 15% yoy in 3Q17, which could be lower than the marketexpectation. This is partly because of the high base in 3Q16. The company raisedits ex-factory price in September 2016. Distributors increased their procurementvolume before the price hikes, resulting in higher advances and sales in 3Q16. Onthe other side, Wuliangye revised down the supply volume for distributors in 3Q17to streamline the pricing system. We think this is also partly due to increasingsupply from Moutai from Aug 15to Sep 30. We expect the adjusted sales to pickup on recovering retail prices. Needs more brand investment instead of simply controlling volumes For the near term, we expect Wuliangye's earnings growth to remain strong,helped by alternative demand from Moutai and new management's increasingefforts in channel building. Furthermore, savings in channel subsidy should alsodrive its margin expansion. However, we are a bit concerned about management's over-focus on supportingthe retail price. Wuliangye indicated that it is reducing supply volume todistributors by 25% to strengthen the retail price. In such a case, wheneverMoutai increases its sales volume, Wuliangye's volume and price could be underpressure, as we saw in 3Q. For the long term, a sustainable retail price dependsmore on branding than the supply and demand situation.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-10-31 641.50 650.00 -- 719.96 12.23% -- 719.96 12.23% -- 详细
Around 70% yoy volume growth for mainstream Moutai (DB estimates).To recap, Moutai indicated on August 28that it supplied 6,200tons ofliquor (including 5,600tons of "Feitian Moutai" and 600tons of otherSKUs) between August 15and September 30, to meet the strong demandduring National Holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival, implying 70% yoygrowth. Strong growth of super premium Moutai. We estimated that most of 600tons of other SKU are super premium Moutai. This drives mix-upgrade formainstream Moutai. Strong growth of mass market Moutai products. According to news fromMoutai website, mass market Moutai sales increased over 200% yoyin the first 9months. This is a result of Moutai's "133" brand strategy(one core brand, three strategy brands - Huamao, Wangmao, Laimao,and three key brands - Hanjiang, Renjiu and Wangzi). Meanwhile, thenumber of domestic distributors increased by 634YTD to 2,965, mainlyfor penetration of mass market Moutai. Net margin expanded 440bps yoy on operating leverage Moutai's gross margin was stable at 75% in 3Q17, as the impact from lowermargin mass-market products was offset by high margin customized Moutai.Selling expense ratio increased 20bps yoy to 3.2%, due to increasing A&P expensefor its "133" brand strategy and "5+5" channel strategy (5core markets and 5potential markets). G&A expense ratio declined 480bps yoy , mainly helped byoperating leverage. Increasing transparency in revenue recognition Moutai booked most ex-factory shipments as revenue in 3Q17. This is differentfrom market's and our expectation that it would allocate the shipments into salesand advances from customer accounts. Therefore, advances from customers were stable at Rmb17bn on Sep 30(vs Rmb18bn on June 30). This partlycontributed to the results beat in 3Q. We believe this implies increasingtransparency and improving cooperate governance for the company.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-10-02 29.70 28.00 -- 32.46 9.29% -- 32.46 9.29% -- 详细
Industry recovery and market share gains through high-end products.We expect the liquid milk industry to grow by 6% in 3Q17(vs. 7% in 1H17)and Yili's market share in liquid milk to increase from 33.6% in June to34% in September. High-end products, including UHT yoghurt, high-endyoghurt and pro biotic drinks, are the key sales drivers. Meanwhile, weexpect the lower tier region and special channel to deliver higher salesgrowth helped by Yili's increasing penetrations. Our recent channel check indicates that its sales growth remainsstrong in 3Q. The Shanghai distributor indicated that its room temperateproducts grew at 8% in both 1H17and 3Q; the Shenzhen distributorindicated its sales grew at higher than 10% YTD. Meanwhile, we find thatMengniu and Yili are revising up ex-factory price and retail price from July,implying that industry competition continues to ease down. 90bps yoy expansion of recurring EBIT margin. Our recent channelcheck indicates the price competition is stabilizing. We believe themore balanced supply/demand in upstream should also lead to a stablecompetition environment. Accordingly, we forecast a yoy flattish sellingexpense/sales ratio in 3Q17. The yoy EBIT margin expansion is mainlyhelped by lower G&A/sales from a high base in 3Q16, while partly offsetby lower gross margin on rising packaging cost and milk powder price. Sales growth to accelerate in 2017-19 Liquid milk growth is recovering from low single digits in 2016to high single digitsin 2017. Firstly, we think this is mainly helped by more balanced supply from2017, and we expect raw milk cycle to turn from over-supply in 2014-16to undersupplyin 2018-19. Secondly, the recovery is also helped by trading up demandfrom low-end milk beverage to pure milk and yoghurt. Thirdly, this is helped byYili's increasing penetration in lower tier regions and special channels. We believethese drivers are sustainable. We forecast Yili's sales CAGR to improve from 8%in 2014-16to 11% in 2017-18E.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-09-26 641.50 550.00 -- 719.96 12.23% -- 719.96 12.23% -- 详细
Retail price declined from Rmb1550/bottle in July to Rmb1330-1350in the past two weeks in both Shenzhen and Shanghai. This is likelymainly due to increasing supply from Moutai from August 15andimplementation of 30% sales on the e-commerce platform policy. Theretail price of other customized Moutai which the company didn't enforcea price control kept rising. For example, the 350ml Moutai's retail priceincreased from Rmb1000/bottle in January to Rmb2000/bottle currently.Sales volume: The Shanghai distributor indicated that it has used up itsfull year procurement quota in 2017, and is currently beginning to usethe 1Q18quota. This implies that the distributors' actual sales volumein first nine month has achieved its full year target. To recap, Mr. WangChonglin, director of Moutai group sales company, said that the companywould sell 5600tons Feitian Moutai and 600tons of customized Moutaibetween 8/15to 9/30.。 Channel stockings: The Shanghai distributor believed there are somedemands from channel restockings, especially for private owneddistributors and wholesalers. However the Shenzhen distributor indicateda different current purchase behavior - with consumers typically buyingMoutai in cases, while normally buying Moutai in bottles - we think thisalso implies consumers are stocking up.。 Impacts from "restricting drinking liquor" policy from some localgovernments announced recently. Both Shenzhen and Shanghaidistributors feel the impact is limited, because they think 1) this is nota new regulation given there is already a similar regulation from 2012;2) the public sector's purchase portion is already low, which is less than30% according to the Shanghai distributor.。 Impacts from Moutai Cloud E-commerce platform (Moutai Yunshang).。 The distributors indicate that the real impacts will depend on how strictMoutai will monitor the sales volume on the platform. Though distributorsare required to put 30% of volume on the platform to sell at Rmb1299。
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-09-04 23.40 24.80 -- 31.39 34.15%
32.46 38.72% -- 详细
OP margin expanded 120bps to 12.2% in 2Q17, helped by 245bps expansion inGP margin due to better product mix and stablizing raw material price, while partlyoffset by higher A&P expense ratio. Three reasons for the strong sales recovery Yili's recurring sales growth improved from 6% yoy in 1Q17to 20% in 2Q17.We think this is mainly due to three reasons. Firstly, consumer staple sectorgenerally saw demand recovery from 2Q17, helped by recovering infrastructureand property investment from 2016and a lower base; secondly, competition inliquid milk is easing, thanks to more balanced supply and demand; and thirdly,Yili's strong distribution network and branding in high-end products makes it wellpositioned in the recovery. We believe these reasons should continue to driveYili's sales in the near-term. Reiterating Buy We revise up our earnings forecast by 10-12% in 2017-19E, mainly to factor inhigher sales growth driven by industry recovery and Yili's product mix upgrade.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-08-21 492.80 550.00 -- 497.29 0.91%
719.96 46.10% -- 详细
To increase ex-factory volume from August 15 Kweichow Moutai will supply more than 4500tons of mainstream "FeitianMoutai" between 15August to 30September, according to the media reportsfrom China Securities Daily. This implies 100tons/day during the peak season.Meanwhile, the company has delivered 150tons on August 15according to thenews. Through increasing supply, Moutai management aims to ease down thesupply shortage in retail end during the peak consumption seasons (Mid-AutumnFestival and National Holidays). It also target to control the retail price belowRmb1299/bottle. This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17 This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17for main stream products, if itdelivers more than 100tons per day from August 15. To recap, Moutai's dailyvolume was 55tons in 3Q16, and we estimate the daily volume was 60-70tonsbefore August 15. In addition, we expect its average selling price for premiumMoutai continue to increase driven by increasing portion of super premiumcustomized Moutai. This is higher than 36% yoy sales growth in 1H17andconsensus estimates at 20% yoy sales growth for 2H17. Channel restocking to continue; maintaining Buy In next 6month, Moutai will experience two traditional peak consumptionseasons - the mid-Autumn festival & National holiday in October and Chinese NewYear in Feb 2018. We expect supply shortage to continue, driven by increasingretail demand and distributor's channel stocking up. Our recent channel checkin Shanghai and Beijing also indicates that most retail stores are running out ofinventories. (For Moutai's re-stocking and de-stocking cycle history, please referto report "The restocking cycle is just beginning; reiterating Buy" ) . Within theshortage environment, we expect Moutai to increase its sales volume and reportaccelerating sales growth. We maintain Buy.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-07-31 471.00 550.00 -- 501.10 6.39%
719.96 52.86% -- 详细
Net profit growth accelerate in 2Q17 Kweichow Moutai reported 1H17 results with sales increased 33.1% toRMB24.19bn and net profit increased 27.8% yoy to RMB11.25bn, in line withour forecast at 11bn. Gross margin declined 2.3ppt to 89.6% in 1H17, mainlydue to faster sales growth form lower-end sub-brands. Management increasedmarketing efforts on lower end brands and its SG&A/sales ratio increased1.7ppt YoY to 14.1% in 1H17. In 2Q17, revenue/NPAT was up 33%/31% yoy, accelerated from +33%/+25%yoy in 1Q17. According to our channel check, Moutai's main products are stillshort of supply even in traditional slack season post Chinese New Yearholidays. We believe this is driven by industry demand recovery anddistributors' channel re-stockings with expectations of retail price hikes. As aresult, the advance from consumers is largely stable at Rmb17.8bn by end-2Q17, which is only 6% lower than 1Q17 even within a slack season. Maintaining Buy We reiterate Buy on Moutai due to its high earnings visibility backed byindustry demand recovery and channel restocking. Our TP at Rmb550 is basedon DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate). Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; governmentpolicy changes; food safety incidents.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-07-11 446.88 550.00 -- 487.96 9.19%
683.40 52.93%
详细
Moutai Group: sales and earnings growth accelerate QoQ in 2Q17 On July 10, Moutai Group (the controlling shareholder of list-co Kweichou Moutai)indicated that sales (VAT included) increased 31% yoy to RMB31bn and profitbefore tax ("PBT") increased 24% yoy to RMB16bn in 1H17, according to newsrelease from its official website. This news implies Moutai Group's sales/earningsgrowth is accelerating from 24%/13% in 1Q17 to 40%/36% in 2Q17. According to the news, the strong growth has been mainly driven by 1) goodgrowth from high-end customized liquor and lower-end sub-brands; 2) overseassale; and 3) strong demand for main stream "Feitian Moutai". It indicates Moutai'smain products are still short of supply even in traditional slack season postChinese New Year holidays. Further, we believe this is also driven by distributors'channel re-stockings with expectations of retail price hikes (refer to our report"The restocking cycle is just beginning " published on June 22). Implications for the Listco: 1H17 growth tracks ahead of market consensus The listco Kweichou Moutai ("Moutai")'s sales/earnings growth trend tracksclosely with Moutai Group (refer to 1) since 2012, and the listco's sales accountsfor 93% of Moutai Group's total revenue in 2016. We believe it indicates thatlistco's sales/earnings growth also speed up QoQ in 2Q17. The sales/earningsgrowth of Moutai group in 1H17 is higher than market forecasts at 20%/25% forthe listco in 2017. We reiterate Buy on the stock. We expect above-mentioned drivers, especially thechannel restocking, to drive its sales growth in the near term. Our TP at Rmb550is based on DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growthrate). Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; governmentpolicy changes; food safety incidents.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-06-26 465.97 541.81 -- 477.78 2.53%
501.10 7.54%
详细
Channel restocking to be more relevant driver in 2H17-18 Revisiting Different from the market consensus that Moutai’s recent recovery has been driven mainly by recovering private consumption, we expect channel restocking to be a stronger growth driver from 2017. Based on our proprietary channel models, we think Moutai entered a new restocking cycle from late 2016 and this new cycle will continue in 2017-19. As indicated by historical experience, Moutai often increases its supply and raises ex-factory prices during a re-stocking cycle. Raising TP by 34%, to Rmb550, and reiterating Buy. Revisiting the channel restocking and destocking cycles of 2009-16 Owing to Moutai’s unique nature ? long shelf value, high-value items and limited supply perception, channel players demonstrate a strong impetus to store up on Moutai’s products when a price appreciation expectation emerges. In 2009-12, Moutai’s growth was driven firstly by demand recovery from infrastructure investments, and then by channel restocking, due to (and resulting in) a retail price hike expectation. In 2013-16, demand for Moutai’s products was firstly affected by anti-extravagant measures and then by channel destocking, which resulted in a retail price collapse. Entering a new restocking cycle from 2017 After building a channel inventory model, we find that, owing to heavy channel destocking and increasing consumption in 2013-16, Moutai’s current channel stocking is at a seven-year low. From 2017, driven by price appreciation expectations, Moutai has started to enter a new channel restocking cycle. We expect this cycle to continue into 2017-19. As a reaction to the restocking cycles, we expect Moutai to increase its supply and raise its ex-factory prices in the near term. Raising target price (TP) by 34%; reiterating Buy; risks We raise our TP by 34%, to Rmb550, based on a DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate), and we reiterate our Buy rating. Moutai is trading at 22x 2018E P/E, with a 24% earnings CAGR in 2016-19E, compared with its peers’ average P/E of 24x. Reiterating Buy. Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; government policy changes; food safety incidents.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-06-23 20.58 22.00 -- 21.78 5.83%
24.22 17.69%
详细
A quality growth stock Sales growth remains good in near-term Yili attended Deutsche Bank’s global consumer conference in Paris and also visited investors in the UK last week. We summarize investors’ top 5 questions on page 2. Investors generally agreed on the good growth potential for China’s dairy sector and were impressed by Yili’s strong execution capability. We think Yili is a good proxy for investing in China’s consumption trade-up trend in nutritional products. We reiterate our Buy rating. Sales growth remains good in near-term Management expects sales growth in 2Q17 to improve vs. 1Q17 (it was 3% yoy in 1Q17), helped by stabilizing competition and a lower base (it disposed of Youran farm in April 2016). Meanwhile, major raw material costs, i.e. packaging and sugar, are also stabilizing in 2Q17 vs 1Q17, albeit partly offset by less use of low-cost raw material inventory. We forecast gross margin to be stable vs. 1Q17. For the full year, management maintains its guidance at 7% sales growth and 6.5% PBT decline (on lower government subsidy income). Multiple drivers to achieve Rmb100bn sales in long-term In the long term, management maintains its target of achieving Rmb100bn sales and becoming a global top five dairy company. Firstly, it expects to achieve higher-than-peers growth in basic dairy products. Secondly, the major driver will come from plant-based milk (it will launch soy milk in 2H17), organic milk (it is bidding for US Stonyfield), and chilled yoghurt. Thirdly, it is also open to entering the non-dairy healthy food category. On EBIT margin, Yili is already higher than most global peers, but it thinks there is still expansion potential through better product mix and the launch of high-margin categories. We reiterate Buy We like Yili for its experienced management team, strong distribution network, and good track record in new product launches. We expect it to achieve higher-than-peers growth through gaining market share, category expansion and M&A. We reiterate our Buy on Yili with TP of Rmb22, based on DCF model, factoring in 9.5% WACC (3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% TG.. Key downside risks: higher-than-expected raw material increases, food safety incidents and worse-than-expected competition.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-05-16 17.60 22.00 -- 20.88 18.64%
21.96 24.77%
详细
To bid Stonyfield for USD850m Yili announced that it plans to bid for 100% equity in Stonyfield for USD850m from Danone Group. Stonyfield is an organic yogurt maker based in New Hampshire, USA. The company has brands including YoBaby, YoToddler, YoKids and Oikos. According to New York Post, the company generated USD370m sales and USD50m EBITDA in 2016. The selling of Stongyfield is part of an agreement reached by Danone with the US Department of Justice for winning approval to buy soy-milk-maker WhiteWave for USD10bn, which was completed in April 2017. Dean Foods is also in the auction to buy Stonyfield, according to New York Post. Acquisition scenario: 5% incremental EBITDA in 2017; but good potential synergies in the long-term We expect Yili to use its internal capital to finance the acquisition (It has Rmb14bn in 2016 and has Rmb8-9bn operating cash flow per year in 2017-19). Based on Stonyfield’s 2016 financials (i.e. assuming the company generates the same 2016 revenue and EBITDA of USD370m and USD50m, respectively, in 2017), and assuming full year consolidation, we expect 3.9%/ 4.6% of incremental sales/EBITDA contribution for Yili in 2017E from the acquisition, if realized. While the earnings contribution appears to be limited in near term, we expect more upside potential for the long-term. With Yili’s wide distribution network in China and good track record in brand building, we think Yili should be able to drive sales in China for Stonyfield, and therefore provide potential for upside to the earnings contribution in the long term.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-05-08 17.70 21.28 -- 20.00 12.99%
21.78 23.05%
详细
Earnings growth tracks ahead of our full year forecastYili reported 3% sales growth to Rmb15.8bn and 12% net profit growth toRmb1.7bn in 1Q17. The sales growth tracks behind our full year forecast at 7%in 2017, but the earnings growth is better than our 2017 forecast at 9%. Grossmargin declined 4.3ppts yoy to 37.2%, which likely due to rising milk powdercost. SG&A/sales declined significantly by 5.0ppts to 25%. What’s behind our expectation: strong control in selling expense…The earnings growth is mainly contributed by significant savings in sellingexpense, which declined 3.8ppts yoy to 25.0% in 1Q17. The selling expenseratio is at the lowest level since 3Q15, likely helped by savings in A&Pspending. As a result of rising industrial milk powder price from 2H16, thecompany likely further controlled A&P expense to maintain profitability. …yet market share remained resilientYili’s room temperature products, chilled products and Infant formula marketshare increased slightly from 32.4%, 15.6% and 5.6% in 4Q16 to 33.6%, 16.2%and 5.8% in 1Q17, respectively. Yili could continue to gain market share evenwhile controlling A&P expense, likely helped by an easing of marketcompetition and more efficient expenses. Infant formula sector likely resumes growthYili didn’t report segment sales in 1Q17, but we estimate its IMF segment salesmight recover to positive growth (vs 15% decline in 2016), given its marketshare increase 40bps yoy in 1Q17. This is likely helped by healthier channelstocking and less pressure from market competition. Maintaining BuyWe expect a similar trend for full year as 1Q17. The headwinds in gross marginwill likely increase due to rising raw material cost, yet this could be offset byeasing market competition and savings in A&P cost. Potential acquisitionswould be the main positive catalyst for the company. We maintain Buy on Yili.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-05-02 17.68 21.28 -- 19.69 11.37%
21.78 23.19%
详细
To terminate share placement and acquisition of China Shengmu. Yili announced on 27 April 2017 that it will terminate the share placement of 587mn shares at Rmb15.33/share, as a result of cancelling the acquisition of 37% interest in China Shengmu. Accordingly, the general offers triggered by the transaction based on HK listing rules also lapsed. Yili indicated that the acquisition cancellation was mainly due to the failure to fulfill all the conditions precedent in the framework contract with Shengmu until 21 April 2017 (“Long Stop Date”), and in particular, it have NOT received the approval from Anti-Monopoly Bureau of MOFCOM. Both Yili and Shengmu agreed on 25 April not to extend Long Stop Date, and therefore the Sale and Purchase Agreement automatically terminated on 21 April 2017. To recap, Yili announced that it plans to finance Rmb9bn through issuing 587mn shares to five investors at Rmb15.33/share in October 2016. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of 37% interest in China Shengmu (1432.HK, NR) at HK$2.25/share and Capex for high-end products' production. Positive on terminating placement; maintaining Buy. We think termination of placement should remove overhangs for EPS dilution. It has a strong cash balance of Rmb14bn in 2016 and has Rmb8-9bn operating cash flow per year, indicating there is not much necessity for equity financings. While Yili terminates the acquisition of Shengmu, we expect the management should continue to seek growth through M&A, likely for high ROE companies and oversea brands. We maintain Buy.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-04-26 18.01 21.28 -- 19.58 8.72%
21.78 20.93%
详细
Suspension of trading . Trading of Yili is suspended on today (24 April 2017), pending the release of an announcement on material information, according to the Shanghai Exchange news. Possibly due to circulation of Shengmu acquisition . To recap, on Oct 22, 2016, Yili announced that it plans to finance Rmb9bn through issuing 587mn shares to five investors at Rmb15.33/share. The proceeds will be used for the acquisition of 37% interest in China Shengmu (1432.HK) at HK$2.25/share and Capex for high-end products' production. Yili signed a framework contract with Shengmu on Oct 22, 2016. According to the contract, the acquisition is conditional on conditions of 1) approved by NDRC; 2) approved by MOFCOM; 3) approved by anti-monopoly Bureau of MOFCOM; 4) approved by SAFE and 5) Deposit of Sale shares into a share escrow account. If the conditions set out above are not satisfied or waived before the Long Stop Date (April 21, 2017), the Sale and Purchase Agreements will automatically terminate. Given the Long Stop Date was last Friday, we think Yili is possibly suspended for further circulation of acquisition of interest in China Shengmu (1432.HK), which is also under trade suspension today..
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/3 转到  
*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名