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永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-11-07 9.28 10.14 -- 10.63 14.55% -- 10.63 14.55% -- 详细
Promising in SSSg terms, with long-term store expansion story; Buy Yonghui's strong store-opening pipeline in 4Q17/2018gives us more confidencein its sales growth in 2018/2019F. SSSg is seeing sequential improvement withtraffic resuming positive growth since 3Q. We believe this is mainly helped by itscompetitive fresh food segment. We also believe its cost advantage from supplychain management will help it to achieve GPM expansion over time. We havefine-tuned our 2017/2018NP by -3%/+2% to reflect a slightly higher opex ratio in2017and an acceleration in store opening in 2018. We also roll over by one yearto 2019in our DCF model and raise our TP by 14% to RMB10.14. We maintainour Buy rating on this stock. Yonghui reported NP up by 131% to RMB337m on sales up 20% to RMB15bn in3Q17. Sales were largely in line with DBe while NP was 6% lower than DBe. Thediscrepancy mainly stemmed from a higher-than-expected opex ratio. We expectthat SSS in 3Q was up by 1.5% vs. 0.8% in 1H17, and that Oct was even better.We expect the company to open 106/100new stores in 2017/2018(gross base)and also to open another 100Yonghui Life and 100Super Species storesby 2017/2018respectively. We believe its acceleration of store expansion andeffective organization structures (four business units and partnership model)can help the company to continuously enjoy better-than-market performanceand operating leverage. We forecast its NP for 2017/2018/2019to grow by47%/44%/29%, respectively.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-11-06 29.70 31.60 -- 32.46 9.29% -- 32.46 9.29% -- 详细
Strong sales growth on recovering sector growth and market sharegains. We estimate the industry retail growth recovered from low singledigit in 3Q16 to high single digit in 3Q17, helped by less price discounton more balanced supply. Meanwhile, Yili's market share in Ambient/chilled products/IMF expanded from 31%/15%/5.7% to 34%/16%/6%respectively (Figure 1). Selling expense/sales ratio declined 100bps yoy to 21.9%, helped byeasing of competition within a more balanced supply environment. G&A expense declined 150bps yoy to 6.2% from a high base, as Yiliincurred incremental G&A for some one-off event (i.e. internal propertymaintenance). SG&A expense savings was partly offset by 102bps yoy decline in grossmargin, due to rising raw milk and packaging prices. Improving inventory turnover indicates that 4Q growth to remain strong. Inventory days improved from 31.9 days in 3Q16 to 30 days in 3Q17. Given theproduction date is an important decision factor when consumers choose brandsin retail ends, the shorten inventory days indicate improving fresh level of theproducts, which should help to drive its sales growth in 4Q17. The improvinginventory days also indicate a more balanced supply and demand market. We expect the recovery trend to continue with an under supply environment. We believe Yili's growth recovery from 2Q is mainly driven by more balancedsupply from 2017. After three years capacity reductions for upstream dairy farmsfrom 2014, raw milk supply is becoming more balanced with demand from 2017. During the over supply environment, smaller dairy players could source raw milkat a heavy discount compared with large brands, but during the under supply environment from 2017, smaller players need to pay a premium instead. This helpslarge players such as Yili and Mengniu to gain market share. Reiterating Buy. We are revising up our earnings forecast by 2-4% in 2017-19E, mainly to factorin higher-than-expected sales driven by Yili's market share gains. We revise upour TP by 13% to Rmb31.6 based on a DCF approach, factoring in a 9.5% WACC(3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% terminal growth. Wereiterate Yili as our top pick among our A share coverage. Downside risks: higherthan-expected raw material price increase, food safety incidents and worse-thanexpectedcompetition.
五粮液 食品饮料行业 2017-11-02 68.85 70.00 -- 76.76 11.49% -- 76.76 11.49% -- 详细
3Q17earnings beat on higher sales growth and lower selling expense Wuliangye reported 3Q17results with 43% yoy sales growth to RMB6,356m and64% yoy net profit growth to RMB1,993m. Net profit in the first nine months grewby 37%, tracking ahead of the market's full-year growth forecast of 26%.The earning beat is mainly attributable to higher-than-expected sales growthand a lower SG&A expense ratio, which declined 670bps yoy to 19.6% in9M17, helped by lower channel subsidy and operating leverage. To recap, thecompany increased channel subsidy during 2014-16, when channel profit waslow/negative. As the retail price recovered from 2017, the company began toremove the channel subsidies. Adjusted sales declined 15% on increasing competition and a high base If adjusted by advances from customers (sales + changes in advance balance), theadjusted sales declined 15% yoy in 3Q17, which could be lower than the marketexpectation. This is partly because of the high base in 3Q16. The company raisedits ex-factory price in September 2016. Distributors increased their procurementvolume before the price hikes, resulting in higher advances and sales in 3Q16. Onthe other side, Wuliangye revised down the supply volume for distributors in 3Q17to streamline the pricing system. We think this is also partly due to increasingsupply from Moutai from Aug 15to Sep 30. We expect the adjusted sales to pickup on recovering retail prices. Needs more brand investment instead of simply controlling volumes For the near term, we expect Wuliangye's earnings growth to remain strong,helped by alternative demand from Moutai and new management's increasingefforts in channel building. Furthermore, savings in channel subsidy should alsodrive its margin expansion. However, we are a bit concerned about management's over-focus on supportingthe retail price. Wuliangye indicated that it is reducing supply volume todistributors by 25% to strengthen the retail price. In such a case, wheneverMoutai increases its sales volume, Wuliangye's volume and price could be underpressure, as we saw in 3Q. For the long term, a sustainable retail price dependsmore on branding than the supply and demand situation.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-10-31 641.50 650.00 -- 719.96 12.23% -- 719.96 12.23% -- 详细
Around 70% yoy volume growth for mainstream Moutai (DB estimates).To recap, Moutai indicated on August 28that it supplied 6,200tons ofliquor (including 5,600tons of "Feitian Moutai" and 600tons of otherSKUs) between August 15and September 30, to meet the strong demandduring National Holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival, implying 70% yoygrowth. Strong growth of super premium Moutai. We estimated that most of 600tons of other SKU are super premium Moutai. This drives mix-upgrade formainstream Moutai. Strong growth of mass market Moutai products. According to news fromMoutai website, mass market Moutai sales increased over 200% yoyin the first 9months. This is a result of Moutai's "133" brand strategy(one core brand, three strategy brands - Huamao, Wangmao, Laimao,and three key brands - Hanjiang, Renjiu and Wangzi). Meanwhile, thenumber of domestic distributors increased by 634YTD to 2,965, mainlyfor penetration of mass market Moutai. Net margin expanded 440bps yoy on operating leverage Moutai's gross margin was stable at 75% in 3Q17, as the impact from lowermargin mass-market products was offset by high margin customized Moutai.Selling expense ratio increased 20bps yoy to 3.2%, due to increasing A&P expensefor its "133" brand strategy and "5+5" channel strategy (5core markets and 5potential markets). G&A expense ratio declined 480bps yoy , mainly helped byoperating leverage. Increasing transparency in revenue recognition Moutai booked most ex-factory shipments as revenue in 3Q17. This is differentfrom market's and our expectation that it would allocate the shipments into salesand advances from customer accounts. Therefore, advances from customers were stable at Rmb17bn on Sep 30(vs Rmb18bn on June 30). This partlycontributed to the results beat in 3Q. We believe this implies increasingtransparency and improving cooperate governance for the company.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-10-30 46.72 50.00 1.90% 50.35 7.77% -- 50.35 7.77% -- 详细
We interacted with investors after the earnings release, key concerns byinvestors and our takes: 3Q17revenue growth decelerated to 23% YoY (vs. 1H17of 27%):management attributed the deceleration to(1) e-commerce product pricehike that impacted volume and(2) property market slowdown. Despite theslowdown, Robam management is confident in a rather sustainable 25-30% YoY revenue growth in 2018. We believe the 2018growth target isachievable (DBe 28% YoY). We see signs suggesting Robam fares betterthan our expectation amid tier-1-city property slowdown: we estimate thatRobam delivered a high-single digit ppt YoY sales growth in tier 1cities in3Q17, vs. over 10% decline in property transaction. The resilience is drivenby(1) new embedded kitchen appliances and(2) market share gain viadecorated houses, in our view. Gross margin declined by 5ppt YoY in 3Q17: Robam management attributethis to wage hikes and accounting changes (Robam started in 4Q16todeduct part of its marketing-related OPEX directly from sales). We noteRobam’s 3Q17EBIT margin expanded by 50bps YoY. More importantly,our channel checks continue to suggest a healthy pricing environment forRobam and Fotile (private). We thus have confidence in a mild grossmargin uptrend for Robam in the next 3years. 3Q17operating cashflow declined: according to management, the shortfallin operating cash flow YoY can be explained by(1) change in paymentterms by one of Robam’s major e-commerce platforms (explaining 2/3ofthe shortfall) and(2) higher raw material stock taken amid hiking rawmaterial prices. Positive investment case intact We like Robam for (1) healthy industry pricing environment,(2) Robam’s abilityto penetrate into lower tier cities and(3) new embedded products drivinggrowth. On these three fronts Robam have been sustainably delivering. Wewill continue to monitor the volatilities in gross margin and cash flow butremain comfortable with Robam’s investment case. We fine-tuned our model by slightly raising 2019and 2020forecast whileincrease target price by c. 14%, all reflecting more resilient growth.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-10-02 29.70 28.00 -- 32.46 9.29% -- 32.46 9.29% -- 详细
Industry recovery and market share gains through high-end products.We expect the liquid milk industry to grow by 6% in 3Q17(vs. 7% in 1H17)and Yili's market share in liquid milk to increase from 33.6% in June to34% in September. High-end products, including UHT yoghurt, high-endyoghurt and pro biotic drinks, are the key sales drivers. Meanwhile, weexpect the lower tier region and special channel to deliver higher salesgrowth helped by Yili's increasing penetrations. Our recent channel check indicates that its sales growth remainsstrong in 3Q. The Shanghai distributor indicated that its room temperateproducts grew at 8% in both 1H17and 3Q; the Shenzhen distributorindicated its sales grew at higher than 10% YTD. Meanwhile, we find thatMengniu and Yili are revising up ex-factory price and retail price from July,implying that industry competition continues to ease down. 90bps yoy expansion of recurring EBIT margin. Our recent channelcheck indicates the price competition is stabilizing. We believe themore balanced supply/demand in upstream should also lead to a stablecompetition environment. Accordingly, we forecast a yoy flattish sellingexpense/sales ratio in 3Q17. The yoy EBIT margin expansion is mainlyhelped by lower G&A/sales from a high base in 3Q16, while partly offsetby lower gross margin on rising packaging cost and milk powder price. Sales growth to accelerate in 2017-19 Liquid milk growth is recovering from low single digits in 2016to high single digitsin 2017. Firstly, we think this is mainly helped by more balanced supply from2017, and we expect raw milk cycle to turn from over-supply in 2014-16to undersupplyin 2018-19. Secondly, the recovery is also helped by trading up demandfrom low-end milk beverage to pure milk and yoghurt. Thirdly, this is helped byYili's increasing penetration in lower tier regions and special channels. We believethese drivers are sustainable. We forecast Yili's sales CAGR to improve from 8%in 2014-16to 11% in 2017-18E.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-09-27 41.86 44.40 -- 47.98 14.62% -- 47.98 14.62% -- 详细
Event 1- Clarification of potential investment in Luoyang LYC and Tianjin FAW On 19Sep 2017, Gree confirmed it had teamed up with Luoyang LocalGovernment and IIT Committee of Henan province, to participate in the “Luoyangintelligent equipment manufacturing production base project”, reported by thepress on 15Sep 2017. Total investment of this project is around RMB15bnincluding a site area of 5000mu, and the estimated production value will reachRMB30bn per annum after completion. Gree will also participate in the stateownedenterprise Reform of LYC Bearing; the investment amount from Gree hasyet to be defined. The company will make a further announcement if necessary. Meanwhile, Gree denied it intended to acquire Tianjin FAW Xiali as Souhu.comreported on 16Sep 2017. Gree clarified that it has never discussed the acquisitionof Xiali with Tianjin FAW. Event 2- Acquisition of 5% stake in Shanghai Highly Group Gree resumed trading on 19Sep and announced on 20Sep 2017that it hadsuccessfully bid for 43m shares of Shanghai Highly Group (600619.SS, NR)between 29Aug 2017and 19Sep 2017from its controlling shareholder, ShanghaiElectric Group (601727.SS, NR). Following the purchase, Gree owns a 5% stakein Shanghai Highly. Rationale for the purchase – to be an international company with well-rounded supply chain capability. Through this acquisition, Gree targets to expand itssupply chain base and consolidate quality capacity and resources in the market.It will also leverage on its international vision as a Shanghai company, on humanresources, information and innovation.It also mentioned the possibility of increasing its stake in Shanghai Highly in thenext 12months, although it does not intend to be the controlling shareholder ofHighly at the moment. It stated that: 1) it will not sell the purchased shares in thenext 12months; 2) it will continue to participate in the bidding for Highly’s sharesin the next 12months should Highly’s controlling shareholder, Shanghai Electric,plan to sell its stake in Highly. Deutsche Bank view – maintaining Buy We believe that business diversification remains as one of the key strategies forGree, and is in line with what it mentioned in its 2016annual report. Automationin the manufacturing process is one of the focuses for all upstream players. In1H17, Gree's manufacturing equipment business sales grew by 270%. As theinvestment of RMB15bn will be contributed by various partners, we believe Gree'sinvestment in Luoyang LYC can be funded from internal resources and will notaffect Gree's cashflow or dividend payout. To recap, as of end-2016, Gree hasnet cash of RMB84bn including net working capital. In 2016, its dividend payoutratio was 59%. Gree bought its interest in Highly at a price of RMB11.6-15.5/share (withinHighly's trading range during the period), which indicates Gree’s total investmentinto Highly is around RMB556-578m. The consideration implies a 2016PE of63-66x, EV/EBITDA of 11~12x, PB of 2.8-2.9x. The impact on the P&L should bevery minimal, in our view. The reason for this acquisition is mainly to verticallyintegrate its supply chain, as explained by Gree. Shanghai Highly is the leadingcompressor manufacturer in China with a 31.4% share of non-self-supportingcompressors in 1H17, according to Highly's interim report. As the largest clientfor Highly, Gree purchased 6m sets of compressors from Highly (total productionof 25m sets) in 2016. Other air conditioners, e.g., Midea and Haier, are all clientsof Highly. Gree also owns a compressor manufacturer, i.e., Zhuhai Landa, asubsidiary of Gree. We believe the investment in Highly will further secure Gree’scompressor supply and help it to gain market share and strengthen its dominantposition in the air-conditioner market, particularly in a high demand market.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-09-26 641.50 550.00 -- 719.96 12.23% -- 719.96 12.23% -- 详细
Retail price declined from Rmb1550/bottle in July to Rmb1330-1350in the past two weeks in both Shenzhen and Shanghai. This is likelymainly due to increasing supply from Moutai from August 15andimplementation of 30% sales on the e-commerce platform policy. Theretail price of other customized Moutai which the company didn't enforcea price control kept rising. For example, the 350ml Moutai's retail priceincreased from Rmb1000/bottle in January to Rmb2000/bottle currently.Sales volume: The Shanghai distributor indicated that it has used up itsfull year procurement quota in 2017, and is currently beginning to usethe 1Q18quota. This implies that the distributors' actual sales volumein first nine month has achieved its full year target. To recap, Mr. WangChonglin, director of Moutai group sales company, said that the companywould sell 5600tons Feitian Moutai and 600tons of customized Moutaibetween 8/15to 9/30.。 Channel stockings: The Shanghai distributor believed there are somedemands from channel restockings, especially for private owneddistributors and wholesalers. However the Shenzhen distributor indicateda different current purchase behavior - with consumers typically buyingMoutai in cases, while normally buying Moutai in bottles - we think thisalso implies consumers are stocking up.。 Impacts from "restricting drinking liquor" policy from some localgovernments announced recently. Both Shenzhen and Shanghaidistributors feel the impact is limited, because they think 1) this is nota new regulation given there is already a similar regulation from 2012;2) the public sector's purchase portion is already low, which is less than30% according to the Shanghai distributor.。 Impacts from Moutai Cloud E-commerce platform (Moutai Yunshang).。 The distributors indicate that the real impacts will depend on how strictMoutai will monitor the sales volume on the platform. Though distributorsare required to put 30% of volume on the platform to sell at Rmb1299。
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-09-04 23.40 24.80 -- 31.39 34.15%
32.46 38.72% -- 详细
OP margin expanded 120bps to 12.2% in 2Q17, helped by 245bps expansion inGP margin due to better product mix and stablizing raw material price, while partlyoffset by higher A&P expense ratio. Three reasons for the strong sales recovery Yili's recurring sales growth improved from 6% yoy in 1Q17to 20% in 2Q17.We think this is mainly due to three reasons. Firstly, consumer staple sectorgenerally saw demand recovery from 2Q17, helped by recovering infrastructureand property investment from 2016and a lower base; secondly, competition inliquid milk is easing, thanks to more balanced supply and demand; and thirdly,Yili's strong distribution network and branding in high-end products makes it wellpositioned in the recovery. We believe these reasons should continue to driveYili's sales in the near-term. Reiterating Buy We revise up our earnings forecast by 10-12% in 2017-19E, mainly to factor inhigher sales growth driven by industry recovery and Yili's product mix upgrade.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-09-04 38.67 44.40 -- 45.00 16.37%
47.98 24.08% -- 详细
Valuation remains inexpensive at 11/11x 17/18PE and 5% yield Gree’s 2Q17NP beat DB/market estimates by 35%/17% due to sales growthacceleration and operating leverage. We believe channel inventory remains at ahealthy level at the beginning of the cold year (end of July). Thus, we raised oursales forecasts for 2017-2019by 7-9%. Meanwhile, we lower our 2017GPMforecast by 1.6ppt to reflect raw material price hike pressure in 2H17. Although2018will be a tough year given high base in 2017due to property boom andrestocking, we believe product upgrades and relatively inexpensive valuationwith 5% yield warrants a Buy recommendation. 2H17outlook – channel inventory remains healthy but more pressure on GPM For 2H17, we expect Gree to report a 19% rise in sales with 10% increase involume as we believe the current channel inventory level remains healthy(~21m units). Meanwhile, we expect GPM to decline 1.3ppt to 31.4% from32.7% in 1H17due to continuous raw material price increase. However, opexratio might remain low as demand remains strong. We expect EBITM of 15%in 2H17(15.5% in 1H17). 2Q17NP beat due to sales growth acceleration and operating leverage 2Q17saw NP up 68% on sales up by 60% vs 1Q sales/NP up by 19%/27%,mainly thanks to restocking cycle and strong demand from retail end. GPMshrank 8ppt to 30.2% affected by raw materials cost hike, while opex ratiocontracted 12.6% to 14.1%. Thus, the company still enjoys an operatingleverage with EBIT margin improving 7.6ppt to 16%. Raising target price to RMB44.4from RMB38.87; risks We use DCF to value the company with a new target price of RMB44.4(oldRMB38.87), as we raise our FY17-FY19NP forecast by 7-9%. Our target priceimplies 13x/12x FY17/18PE, which is at a premium to its historical valuationpoint during de-stocking of channel inventory, and dividend yield at 4.6% forFY17E. Downside risks include competition, subsidy policy, and M&A.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-08-21 492.80 550.00 -- 497.29 0.91%
719.96 46.10% -- 详细
To increase ex-factory volume from August 15 Kweichow Moutai will supply more than 4500tons of mainstream "FeitianMoutai" between 15August to 30September, according to the media reportsfrom China Securities Daily. This implies 100tons/day during the peak season.Meanwhile, the company has delivered 150tons on August 15according to thenews. Through increasing supply, Moutai management aims to ease down thesupply shortage in retail end during the peak consumption seasons (Mid-AutumnFestival and National Holidays). It also target to control the retail price belowRmb1299/bottle. This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17 This implies over 40% volume growth in 3Q17for main stream products, if itdelivers more than 100tons per day from August 15. To recap, Moutai's dailyvolume was 55tons in 3Q16, and we estimate the daily volume was 60-70tonsbefore August 15. In addition, we expect its average selling price for premiumMoutai continue to increase driven by increasing portion of super premiumcustomized Moutai. This is higher than 36% yoy sales growth in 1H17andconsensus estimates at 20% yoy sales growth for 2H17. Channel restocking to continue; maintaining Buy In next 6month, Moutai will experience two traditional peak consumptionseasons - the mid-Autumn festival & National holiday in October and Chinese NewYear in Feb 2018. We expect supply shortage to continue, driven by increasingretail demand and distributor's channel stocking up. Our recent channel checkin Shanghai and Beijing also indicates that most retail stores are running out ofinventories. (For Moutai's re-stocking and de-stocking cycle history, please referto report "The restocking cycle is just beginning; reiterating Buy" ) . Within theshortage environment, we expect Moutai to increase its sales volume and reportaccelerating sales growth. We maintain Buy.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-07-31 471.00 550.00 -- 501.10 6.39%
719.96 52.86% -- 详细
Net profit growth accelerate in 2Q17 Kweichow Moutai reported 1H17 results with sales increased 33.1% toRMB24.19bn and net profit increased 27.8% yoy to RMB11.25bn, in line withour forecast at 11bn. Gross margin declined 2.3ppt to 89.6% in 1H17, mainlydue to faster sales growth form lower-end sub-brands. Management increasedmarketing efforts on lower end brands and its SG&A/sales ratio increased1.7ppt YoY to 14.1% in 1H17. In 2Q17, revenue/NPAT was up 33%/31% yoy, accelerated from +33%/+25%yoy in 1Q17. According to our channel check, Moutai's main products are stillshort of supply even in traditional slack season post Chinese New Yearholidays. We believe this is driven by industry demand recovery anddistributors' channel re-stockings with expectations of retail price hikes. As aresult, the advance from consumers is largely stable at Rmb17.8bn by end-2Q17, which is only 6% lower than 1Q17 even within a slack season. Maintaining Buy We reiterate Buy on Moutai due to its high earnings visibility backed byindustry demand recovery and channel restocking. Our TP at Rmb550 is basedon DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate). Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; governmentpolicy changes; food safety incidents.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-07-11 41.09 44.52 -- 43.43 5.69%
50.35 22.54%
Three-year growth targets reiterated; 2Q17update Management reiterated its 2017-19targets, including (1) a sales CAGR of 25%, (2) a net profit CAGR of 30% as well as (3) built-in products to reach 20% of itssales (vs. 10% in 2016). Management has strong ambitions for built-inproducts (microwaves, ovens, steam ovens, dishwashers and water purifiers)and it set a 10-year target for embedded products to account for 50% of itssales. For 2Q17, management expects sales growth to track in line with its 25% growth target. The gross margin should not be significantly impacted by hikingraw material costs, thanks to Robam’s raw material reserves as well as a ~5%hike in its wholesale price (on 1April 2017). We note that raw materialsrepresent 80% of Robam’s cost of goods sold.Cooling tier-1city property could have an impact, but lower tiers remain strongManagement stated that it normally takes 9-12months for the government’sproperty control measures to take effect. Approximately 80% of demand forRobam’s products comes from new flats. As a result, management estimatesthe tier-1city slowdown could have some impact on its revenue in 4Q17and1Q18. That said, tier-1cities represent 17% of Robam’s sales, with tier-2andbelow accounting for 45% and 38%, respectively. Plans to enhance competitiveness and marketing efficiency Management attributes Robam’s premium ROE to its strong pricing power,thanks to its first mover advantages in the high-end kitchenware market andtechnology leadership. To widen its lead, Robam plans to focus more onproduct innovation and increase R&D spending from 3% of sales now to 5% inthe next three years. Robam believes its emerging competitors (Midea andHaier) have not yet established premium branding and lag in productinnovation.Robam also plans to nimbly reallocate its marketing resources by focusing lesson TV commercials and shifting to online/digital. With higher returns onmarketing expenditure, management hopes to keep marketing expenses incheck. Channel reform and e-commerce ASP upgrade Finally, Robam plans to reform its wholesaler network to introduce a moresophisticated level of coverage and branch into lower-tier cites. Its ecommerceASP tends to be lower than it is for its off-line channel. Thecompany plans to reduce the gap in ASP in order to eventually promote high-ASP built-in products online.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-07-11 446.88 550.00 -- 487.96 9.19%
683.40 52.93%
Moutai Group: sales and earnings growth accelerate QoQ in 2Q17 On July 10, Moutai Group (the controlling shareholder of list-co Kweichou Moutai)indicated that sales (VAT included) increased 31% yoy to RMB31bn and profitbefore tax ("PBT") increased 24% yoy to RMB16bn in 1H17, according to newsrelease from its official website. This news implies Moutai Group's sales/earningsgrowth is accelerating from 24%/13% in 1Q17 to 40%/36% in 2Q17. According to the news, the strong growth has been mainly driven by 1) goodgrowth from high-end customized liquor and lower-end sub-brands; 2) overseassale; and 3) strong demand for main stream "Feitian Moutai". It indicates Moutai'smain products are still short of supply even in traditional slack season postChinese New Year holidays. Further, we believe this is also driven by distributors'channel re-stockings with expectations of retail price hikes (refer to our report"The restocking cycle is just beginning " published on June 22). Implications for the Listco: 1H17 growth tracks ahead of market consensus The listco Kweichou Moutai ("Moutai")'s sales/earnings growth trend tracksclosely with Moutai Group (refer to 1) since 2012, and the listco's sales accountsfor 93% of Moutai Group's total revenue in 2016. We believe it indicates thatlistco's sales/earnings growth also speed up QoQ in 2Q17. The sales/earningsgrowth of Moutai group in 1H17 is higher than market forecasts at 20%/25% forthe listco in 2017. We reiterate Buy on the stock. We expect above-mentioned drivers, especially thechannel restocking, to drive its sales growth in the near term. Our TP at Rmb550is based on DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growthrate). Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; governmentpolicy changes; food safety incidents.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-06-26 465.97 541.81 -- 477.78 2.53%
501.10 7.54%
Channel restocking to be more relevant driver in 2H17-18 Revisiting Different from the market consensus that Moutai’s recent recovery has been driven mainly by recovering private consumption, we expect channel restocking to be a stronger growth driver from 2017. Based on our proprietary channel models, we think Moutai entered a new restocking cycle from late 2016 and this new cycle will continue in 2017-19. As indicated by historical experience, Moutai often increases its supply and raises ex-factory prices during a re-stocking cycle. Raising TP by 34%, to Rmb550, and reiterating Buy. Revisiting the channel restocking and destocking cycles of 2009-16 Owing to Moutai’s unique nature ? long shelf value, high-value items and limited supply perception, channel players demonstrate a strong impetus to store up on Moutai’s products when a price appreciation expectation emerges. In 2009-12, Moutai’s growth was driven firstly by demand recovery from infrastructure investments, and then by channel restocking, due to (and resulting in) a retail price hike expectation. In 2013-16, demand for Moutai’s products was firstly affected by anti-extravagant measures and then by channel destocking, which resulted in a retail price collapse. Entering a new restocking cycle from 2017 After building a channel inventory model, we find that, owing to heavy channel destocking and increasing consumption in 2013-16, Moutai’s current channel stocking is at a seven-year low. From 2017, driven by price appreciation expectations, Moutai has started to enter a new channel restocking cycle. We expect this cycle to continue into 2017-19. As a reaction to the restocking cycles, we expect Moutai to increase its supply and raise its ex-factory prices in the near term. Raising target price (TP) by 34%; reiterating Buy; risks We raise our TP by 34%, to Rmb550, based on a DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate), and we reiterate our Buy rating. Moutai is trading at 22x 2018E P/E, with a 24% earnings CAGR in 2016-19E, compared with its peers’ average P/E of 24x. Reiterating Buy. Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; government policy changes; food safety incidents.
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