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Anne Ling

德意志银

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贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-06-26 465.97 541.81 16.15% 477.78 2.53% -- 477.78 2.53% -- 详细
Channel restocking to be more relevant driver in 2H17-18 Revisiting Different from the market consensus that Moutai’s recent recovery has been driven mainly by recovering private consumption, we expect channel restocking to be a stronger growth driver from 2017. Based on our proprietary channel models, we think Moutai entered a new restocking cycle from late 2016 and this new cycle will continue in 2017-19. As indicated by historical experience, Moutai often increases its supply and raises ex-factory prices during a re-stocking cycle. Raising TP by 34%, to Rmb550, and reiterating Buy. Revisiting the channel restocking and destocking cycles of 2009-16 Owing to Moutai’s unique nature ? long shelf value, high-value items and limited supply perception, channel players demonstrate a strong impetus to store up on Moutai’s products when a price appreciation expectation emerges. In 2009-12, Moutai’s growth was driven firstly by demand recovery from infrastructure investments, and then by channel restocking, due to (and resulting in) a retail price hike expectation. In 2013-16, demand for Moutai’s products was firstly affected by anti-extravagant measures and then by channel destocking, which resulted in a retail price collapse. Entering a new restocking cycle from 2017 After building a channel inventory model, we find that, owing to heavy channel destocking and increasing consumption in 2013-16, Moutai’s current channel stocking is at a seven-year low. From 2017, driven by price appreciation expectations, Moutai has started to enter a new channel restocking cycle. We expect this cycle to continue into 2017-19. As a reaction to the restocking cycles, we expect Moutai to increase its supply and raise its ex-factory prices in the near term. Raising target price (TP) by 34%; reiterating Buy; risks We raise our TP by 34%, to Rmb550, based on a DCF approach (factoring in 9.5% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate), and we reiterate our Buy rating. Moutai is trading at 22x 2018E P/E, with a 24% earnings CAGR in 2016-19E, compared with its peers’ average P/E of 24x. Reiterating Buy. Main downside risks: shorter-than-expected restocking cycle; government policy changes; food safety incidents.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2017-06-23 14.56 16.51 12.85% 15.37 5.56%
15.37 5.56% -- 详细
This is in line with Haier’s long-term strategy. PML operates production ofautomation & customized intelligent equipment mainly for RF and WM,and provides solutions for factory management system. Qingdao Haier Co.,Ltd believed that the deal would help the company to further enhance itsintelligence manufacturing capability by integrating PML’s COSMOlineintelligence manufacturing digital platform into its own COSMOPlatplatform. We believe net margin should improve for both. This deal is the first step for materializing commitment. To recap, QingdaoHaier acquired 20% of FPA in 2009 and acquired the remaining stake ofthe company at a consideration of USD701m (RMB4.5bn) in 2012. In orderto avoid competition between Qinghai Haier and FPA, Haier Groupannounced in January 2011 that it will inject white goods asset to QingdaoHaier within five years. Though, this has been delayed as Haier Groupbelieves that FPA’s financial performance was short of expectations andneeds more time for integration. In 2015, Haier Group agreed to inject FPAasset into Qingdao Haier by June 2020.
伊利股份 食品饮料行业 2017-06-23 20.58 22.00 6.13% 21.78 5.83%
21.78 5.83% -- 详细
A quality growth stock Sales growth remains good in near-term Yili attended Deutsche Bank’s global consumer conference in Paris and also visited investors in the UK last week. We summarize investors’ top 5 questions on page 2. Investors generally agreed on the good growth potential for China’s dairy sector and were impressed by Yili’s strong execution capability. We think Yili is a good proxy for investing in China’s consumption trade-up trend in nutritional products. We reiterate our Buy rating. Sales growth remains good in near-term Management expects sales growth in 2Q17 to improve vs. 1Q17 (it was 3% yoy in 1Q17), helped by stabilizing competition and a lower base (it disposed of Youran farm in April 2016). Meanwhile, major raw material costs, i.e. packaging and sugar, are also stabilizing in 2Q17 vs 1Q17, albeit partly offset by less use of low-cost raw material inventory. We forecast gross margin to be stable vs. 1Q17. For the full year, management maintains its guidance at 7% sales growth and 6.5% PBT decline (on lower government subsidy income). Multiple drivers to achieve Rmb100bn sales in long-term In the long term, management maintains its target of achieving Rmb100bn sales and becoming a global top five dairy company. Firstly, it expects to achieve higher-than-peers growth in basic dairy products. Secondly, the major driver will come from plant-based milk (it will launch soy milk in 2H17), organic milk (it is bidding for US Stonyfield), and chilled yoghurt. Thirdly, it is also open to entering the non-dairy healthy food category. On EBIT margin, Yili is already higher than most global peers, but it thinks there is still expansion potential through better product mix and the launch of high-margin categories. We reiterate Buy We like Yili for its experienced management team, strong distribution network, and good track record in new product launches. We expect it to achieve higher-than-peers growth through gaining market share, category expansion and M&A. We reiterate our Buy on Yili with TP of Rmb22, based on DCF model, factoring in 9.5% WACC (3.9% RFR, 5.6% ERP, 1.0 beta, debt-free structure) and 2% TG.. Key downside risks: higher-than-expected raw material increases, food safety incidents and worse-than-expected competition.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2017-06-15 14.99 16.51 12.85% 15.37 2.54%
15.37 2.54% -- 详细
Maintaining Buy with new target price of RMB16.51 Premiumization strategy bearing fruit We maintain our Buy recommendation on Qingdao Haier thanks to its globalization and premiumization strategy. Its core business started to pick up since 2H16 and expects to see a robust growth in terms of sales and NP. The synergy of GEA is also ahead of expectation and thus it raised the accumulated synergy effect benefit from USD130m to USD310m for 2016-2019F, as stated in the annual report. We estimate the company to report NP CAGR of 18% for the three years vs. FY17 PE16x, which is inexpensive. Premiumization strategy bearing fruit To cater for current consumption upgrade trend, Qingdao Haier has laid out clear brand segmentation, specifically with premium brands, e.g. GEA to penetrate high-end market. It also sees additional RMB3bn revenue from high-end home furnishing and decoration channels. This strategy enabled Haier to secure growth with ASP increase, thus becoming a defensive margin player (GPM expanded 3.1ppt/1.5ppt to 31%/30% in 2016/1Q17). We conservatively expect GPM to improve to 32.2% in 2019. Across-the-board growth acceleration in 2017 The company expects RF and WM to see a better-than-industry growth in 2017 (we forecast the industry growth for RF will decline 1.1%, while that for WM will increase 3.9% in 2017 in volume vs China IOL’s projection of - 4.7%/+3.6%). AC will even grow faster and continue gaining market share. 1H trend will remain consistent with 1Q momentum across the board. We lift our DCF-based target price by 35.3% to RMB16.51 (old: RMB12.20) Our DCF-based target price is RMB16.51, as we raise our forecast by 8-9% for 2017-18 and roll over our DCF forecast we used a blended COE of 8.5%, long-term growth rate of 1.5% and a target capital structure with zero debt assumption. This translates into 16/14x FY17/18E P/E, which is in line with its historical PE multiple. Downside company risks: 1) slower-than-expected revenue growth in domestic and overseas markets, 2) smooth transition of the acquired business, 3) failure to achieve synergy, and 4) unfavorable FX.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-06-15 35.68 37.12 -- 41.65 16.73%
41.75 17.01% -- 详细
Maintaining Buy with new target price at RMB38.87 We expect domestic market sale-in volume to rise 16% to 70m in 2017 We maintain our Buy recommendation on Gree as we believe it will benefit from its strategy of offsetting the rise in raw material prices with new model launches. This move to not raise its retail prices too aggressively will help gain volume. However, given its lion’s share in the market, we expect Gree’s share to increase 2ppt to 45%. Meanwhile, its plan to diversify the business from AC is likely a mid-term strategy, which is unlikely to have key contributions in the short term. We raise our NP for FY17/18 by 21%/15% and introduce the 2019 forecast. We raise our TP by 36.5% to RMB38.87, which is a combination of earnings revisions and is based on rolling over of our first DCF forecast year. We expect domestic market sale-in volume to rise 16% to 70m in 2017 This is based on a 2.2% rise in retail demand to 69m sets (buoyant property market and government promoting central AC) and ~3m inventory channel restocking. Please refer to Figure 19 and Figure 20 for our retail demand model. Outlook for Gree We expect a 21% rise in sales in 2017, of which 81% would come from AC, up 23%. In our model, we expect a 19% rise in sales volume to 42.9m in 2017, which will likely normalize to 6% each year for 2018/19. We expect overall GPM to increase 0.5ppt to 34% due to launch of new models and we expect EBITM to improve 1.7ppt to 14.2%. Raising target price to RMB38.87from RMB28.48; risks We use DCF to value the company with a new target price of RMB38.87 (old RMB28.48), as we roll over the DCF forecast year to 2027 and raise our FY17/18 forecast by 21%/15% (details on page 3). We also introduce the 2019 forecast. Our target price implies 12x/11x FY17/18 PE, which is at a premium to its historical valuation point during de-stocking of channel inventory, and dividend yield at 4.6% for FY17E. Downside risks include competition, subsidy policy, and M&A.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-05-16 42.00 44.52 6.00% 45.88 9.24%
45.88 9.24% -- 详细
We adjusted our TP and EPS by a factor of 1.3x to reflect the increase in number of shares to 949m shares as a result of the company’s announcement of 3 bonus shares for every 10 existing shares. The ex date was on 10 May.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-05-02 41.11 44.11 5.02% 42.83 4.18%
45.88 11.60% -- 详细
Update from 1Q17 conference call. Management commented that the overall performance in 1Q was better than it had expected, owing mainly to 1) a strong performance, with consumption upgrades in lower-tier cities with active property markets, 2) less of a slowdown from tier-1 cities, despite the government’s control of the property market, and 3) better-than-expected online sales, with 40% growth. The GPM was also better than expected, despite a raw material price increase, due to a rise in sales from the online business and a product mix shift that offset the raw material price increase. With the company raising prices in April, we expect the GPM to continue to improve. As for opex, the company expects this to be under control, except for R&D, which is expected to rise. Deutsche Bank’s view. On the back of a better 1Q17 outlook, which is in the first year of its three-year plan (one of the targets is to achieve a 30% net profit CAGR over 2017-19), we raise our FY17/18/19E net profit by 5/7/9%, assuming that the above net profit growth target is achievable. We raise our target price by 10%, to RMB57.88, which translates into 26x/20x FY17/18E PE. We believe this is justified given the above-mentioned 30% CAGR. Maintaining Buy. Our primary valuation methodology is a DCF (as investors focus on Robam’s long-term value), employing COE of 9.5% (RFR of 3.9% and ERP of 5.6%, both following Deutsche Bank’s house view), a beta of 1 and a TGR of 1.5% (in line with our Hong Kong and China consumer coverage). Downside risks include a weaker property market, higher material prices, new competitors, and price wars.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-05-02 41.11 40.04 -- 42.83 4.18%
45.88 11.60% -- 详细
NP grew 54.3% partially due to higher government subsidies Robam reported NP up 54.3% to RMB 2512m NP on net sales up 34% to RMB1.4bn in 1Q17. Sales/NP accounts for 19%/16% of our 2017 full-year forecast. For reference, 1Q16 sales/NP accounted for 18%/14% of full-year sales/NP, respectively. Excluding exceptional item, particularly government subsidies which increased by 433% to RMB54.4m, core earnings grow 33.13%. GPM increased 0.5ppt to 59% and EBIT margin remains largely stable. AR grew 34.23% which was mainly due to sales increase. Prepayment increase was mainly attributed to advanced purchase of raw materials. To recap, Robam outlined a strategic target, i.e., “Triple 30%” plan, during their 2016 annual results analyst meeting. 1) Earnings growth of 30% CAGR: management is confident of delivering the earnings growth target, albeit revenue CAGR may be slower than 30%; 2) Market share for range hood to increase to 30%; 3) Sales volume for high-end range hoods to lead that of the second player by 30%. The company will host a conference call at 10:00 am HK time on 26 April 2017. We will review our estimates post conf call.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-04-21 5.91 6.37 -- 6.86 16.07%
7.38 24.87%
详细
14% sales growth and 58% net profit growth in1Q17 Yonghui reported 1Q17 results with 13.8% sales growth to Rmb15.26bn and57.55% net profit growth to Rmb743.7m, in line with its preliminary resultsannounced last week. The sales are mainly driven by 1-2% SSSG, 105 newstore openings in 2016, and 140bps yoy expansion in net margin. Thecompany opened 33 new stores in 1Q17 (vs. 24 new stores in 1Q16), includingone select Store, one Super Species, and 9 membership store. Strong margin expansion trend on margin-focus strategy Yonghui’s net margin expanded 140bps yoy in 1Q17, helped by 60bps yoy inGPM and 90bps decline in Opex/sales. We believe this is helped by itsreclassification of Fujian and northeast region to margin focus group fromOctober 2016. Further, we believe management’s efforts in improving thecompany’s supply chain and operating efficiency are bearing fruits. 2017 outlook – margin expansion trend to continue We expect Yonghui to enter a margin expansion cycle from 2017, helped by anincreasing sales contribution from high-end stores and by operating efficiencyimprovingmeasures. Meanwhile, management is switching more focus fromscale to margin growth. We expect the margin expansion trend to continue inthe next three quarters. We forecast 48% recurring net profit growth toRmb1,494mn. Reiterate Buy We maintain Buy on Yonghui and are encouraged by the company enteringmargin expansion phase. Our target price is RMB6.50, based on DCF model,factoring in 9.5% COE, 1.0 beta and 1.5% TGR. Downside risk: competitionfrom on/offline players, weak SSSG, and management capability in nationwideexpansion.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-04-20 5.94 6.37 -- 6.64 11.78%
7.38 24.24%
详细
Entering margin expansion cycle. 1Q17: strong beat on store network and margin expansion We expect Yonghui to enter a margin expansion cycle from 2017, helped by an increasing sales contribution from high-end stores and by operating efficiency-improving measures. Meanwhile, management is switching more focus from scale to margin growth. We expect the margin expansion trend to continue in the next three years. We revise up our EPS forecast by 6-14% in 2017-19E and raise our TP by 14% to Rmb6.5. Reiterating Buy. 1Q17: strong beat on store network and margin expansion. Yonghui announced 1Q17 preliminary results with 14% sales growth and 58% net profit growth, which is tracking ahead of DB’s previous 28% recurring earnings growth for the full year. This is mainly driven by 1-2% SSSG, 105 new store openings in 2016, and 160bps yoy expansion in recurring OP margin. In addition, we estimate it booked Rmb80mn interest income from the cash proceeds from the share placement in 2H16. More to be expected in 2017. Last October, management reclassified its core region, Fujian, and loss-making Northeast region to its “quality-focus group”, indicating the majority of business (54% of sales in 2016) will be focused on margin and operating efficiency. We expect 30bps recurring OP margin expansion in 2017, helped by margin improvement in Fujian and the Northeast region. In addition, Yonghui will complete the investment in Damon and could book associate income from 2Q17, which is likely to contribute Rmb90mn net profit in 2017. Revising up TP by 14%; reiterating Buy. We revise earnings in 2017-19E up by 6-14%, to factor in a higher profitability on management’s increasing focus on profitability. We forecast 18% sales and 24% earnings CAGR in 2017-19E. We revise up our TP by 14% to RMB6.50 based on our new earnings forecast. Our DCF approach factors in 9.5% COE, 1.0 beta and 1.5% TGR. Downside risk: competition from on/offline players, weak SSSG, and management capability in nationwide expansion.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-04-17 5.66 5.59 -- 6.35 12.19%
7.38 30.39%
详细
Preliminary 1Q17 results Yonghui reported preliminary results for 1Q17 with net profit up 57.55% yoy toRMB743.7m on the back of a 13.76% increase in sales revenue toRMB15.26bn. The company attributed the net profit growth to 1) improvedgross profit margin due to tighter cost control; and 2) increased interestincome resulting from more efficient fund management. Net margin hasexpanded from 3.2%/3.5% in 1Q15/1Q16 to 4.9% in 1Q17. Deutsche Bank comments 1Q17 revenue is 25.4% of our full-year forecast vs. 26.6%/27.3% in 1Q15/1Q16,largely in line with our forecast. We believe that the top-line growth is mainlyfrom 1) accelerating new store opening in 1Q17 as it has 202 stores in thepipeline by the end of 2016; 2) low-single-digit SSSg affected by declined foodCPI in first two months of 2017. Net profit is 53% of our full-year forecast vs 60%/38% in 1Q15/1Q16, higherthan our forecast mainly due to the higher interest income contributed by thecompany’s more efficient fund management and strong cash balance ofRMB8bn by the end of 2016 (2015: RMB4.3bn) as a result of private placementin 2H16. The company has scheduled to report its audited 1Q17 results on 15 April. Wewill have more updates on financials at that time.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-04-07 37.26 40.04 -- 59.28 21.23%
45.88 23.13%
详细
New TP at RMB52.54; maintaining BuyWe rate Robam as Buy as its strong network (it still has penetration growth)and additional investment in R&D (resulting in differentiated products) shoulddrive its sales/NP growth at a CAGR of 27%/28% for its new three-year plan(2017-19). We believe Robam is set to benefit from a strong property market inthe past 12 months and consumption upgrades for home improvement(demand for built-in kitchen appliances). We raise our 17/18 NP forecast by5%/3% and introduce our 2019 forecast. Our new TP is RMB52.54. 2017: healthy industry trend will likely continueRobam plans to hike prices by c. 5% on average, starting from 2Q17. Management views this price hike as an industry-wide reflection of rawmaterial costs. The company indicated it will not cut prices in exchange forvolume growth. Robam’s comments likely suggest strong industry pricediscipline in 2017, despite new entrants into the kitchen appliance market. Rollover of 3-year target; 30% earnings CAGR guided for 2017-2020Robam provided upbeat earnings guidance as part of its refreshed 3-year plan. To achieve the targets, it wishes to: (1) further strengthen its R&D to cementleadership for the core range hood & cooker hood businesses. (2) seek storeexpansion opportunities into tier 3 cities, aiming to open 300-400 brandedstores each year, (3) further grow the built-in kitchen appliance business. Robam sees built-in products as the biggest beneficiary of the consumptionupgrade trend, and sees most potential in steam ovens. (4) Robam alsoconsiders global collaborations, including R&D and potential M&A. DCF-based target price raised to RMB52.54In this update, we raise 17/18 earnings forecasts by 5%/3%, mainly to accountfor better-than-expected market conditions and innovation. We also roll overour valuation model. This leads us to lift our target price by 14%. Our primaryvaluation methodology is DCF (as investors focus on Robam’s long-termvalue), employing a COE of 9.5% (RFR of 3.9% and ERP of 5.6% both followingDeutsche Bank house view), beta of 1, and TGR of 1.5% (in line with our HongKong and China consumer coverage). Downside risks include a weakerproperty market, higher material prices, new competitors and price wars.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-04-03 37.95 35.05 -- 59.28 19.04%
45.88 20.90%
详细
Core NP better than Deutsche Bank and market, partially due to higher government subsidies Robam recorded net profit up 40.33% yoy, at RMB1.1bn and a 27.56% yoy revenue rise to RMB5.8bn. Operating profit rose 41% yoy to RMB1.3bn, with the operating margin improving 2ppts yoy. Core net profit (excluding a one-off government subsidy of RMB47m, received in December 2016) was 5% and 2% above Deutsche Bank and market consensus estimates, respectively. This is consistent with the preliminary results announced on 23January 2017. Details are set below table.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-04-03 5.41 5.59 -- 6.47 17.21%
7.38 36.41%
详细
Net profit in line with preliminary result Yonghui reported 2016 results with 16.8% yoy sales growth to Rmb49bn and 105% yoy net profit growth to Rmb1,242m. The result is in-line with its preliminary result announced in January. Excluding Lianhua disposal gain of RMB170m, the core net profit at Rmb1.1bn is also in line with DB forecast. On quarterly basis, the sales increase 14% yoy in 4Q16 and recurring net profit increase 442% on low base. What we like in the result: solid sales growth and margin expansion The 16.8% sales growth has been helped by 1.9% SSSG and 105 new stores in 2016 (488 stores by end-2016). The SSSG should be better than industry average, mainly driven by its 11.3% SSSG for its high-end “Bravo” brands. Meanwhile, its operating margin expands 1.2ppts yoy to 3.3%, helped by improving efficiency in supply chain and stronger control in operating expense. 2017 outlook - new store opening to drive earnings growth Yonghui’s store pipeline has increased by 18 stores to 202 stores by the end of 2016. It will focus in high-end brands, i.e., it targets to open over 100 “Bravo” stores in 2017 and will open it in new provinces. We expect the strong cash balance at Rmb8bn should support its store openings. In addition, we expect Yonghui to book increasing revenue contribution from high-margin private-label products, helped by closer cooperation with Daymon Worldwide, the retailers’ service company it acquired in January 2017. The private-label products could also help it to differentiate from online stores. Reiterating Buy We expect its store opening and improving operating efficiency to drive earnings growth in 2017-18. In the long term, increasing high-end stores and increasing sales from private label should drive its margin expansion. We maintain Buy with target price of Rmb5.7. Our primary valuation methodology is DCF, employing COE of 9.5%, a beta of 1.0 and a TGR of 1.5%, which is in line with the 1-2.5% range we apply for the consumer sector (as China is one of the key drivers in the food retail consolidation globally). Key risks: competition from on/offline players, weak SSSG, and management capability in nationwide expansion.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-02-28 362.49 403.89 -- 396.50 9.38%
456.48 25.93%
详细
2017 Q1 preliminary results announced Kweichow Moutai announced preliminary results of Q1 2017. The company estimates revenue to grow 25.4% to RMB12.8b and net profit to increase 15.9% to RMB5.7b. The slower growth rate of net profit is probably due to continued adjustment of the consumption tax rate. Moutai also reported last year’s base liquor production which hit a historical high of c.a. 60,000 tons, including 39,000 tons of Moutai brand base liquor and 21,000 tons of sub-brands base liquor. Only one quarter but broadly in line with our full year forecasts Moutai’s estimated 1Q performance is stronger than our full year revenue forecast of 23% but weaker than our net profit growth forecast of 24%. We are not overly concerned about Moutai’s full year net profit growth as 2H 2016 was a low base after consumption tax adjustment, thus Moutai’s 2H 2017 earnings growth may accelerate. Maintain Buy rating and price target of CNY410.00 Moutai’s strong Q1 preliminary results announcement is consistent with our observations from a recent market visit, which showed strong end demand and high velocity on the distributor level. Moutai’s first tier distributors’ selling price after Chinese New Year has stabilized at around RMB1,150 per bottle which is in line with our expectations. We remain positive on Moutai, maintain Buy rating and price target of CNY410.00.
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1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
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