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John Chou

德意志银

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格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-09-04 38.67 44.40 14.05% 39.63 2.48% -- 39.63 2.48% -- 详细
Valuation remains inexpensive at 11/11x 17/18PE and 5% yield Gree’s 2Q17NP beat DB/market estimates by 35%/17% due to sales growthacceleration and operating leverage. We believe channel inventory remains at ahealthy level at the beginning of the cold year (end of July). Thus, we raised oursales forecasts for 2017-2019by 7-9%. Meanwhile, we lower our 2017GPMforecast by 1.6ppt to reflect raw material price hike pressure in 2H17. Although2018will be a tough year given high base in 2017due to property boom andrestocking, we believe product upgrades and relatively inexpensive valuationwith 5% yield warrants a Buy recommendation. 2H17outlook – channel inventory remains healthy but more pressure on GPM For 2H17, we expect Gree to report a 19% rise in sales with 10% increase involume as we believe the current channel inventory level remains healthy(~21m units). Meanwhile, we expect GPM to decline 1.3ppt to 31.4% from32.7% in 1H17due to continuous raw material price increase. However, opexratio might remain low as demand remains strong. We expect EBITM of 15%in 2H17(15.5% in 1H17). 2Q17NP beat due to sales growth acceleration and operating leverage 2Q17saw NP up 68% on sales up by 60% vs 1Q sales/NP up by 19%/27%,mainly thanks to restocking cycle and strong demand from retail end. GPMshrank 8ppt to 30.2% affected by raw materials cost hike, while opex ratiocontracted 12.6% to 14.1%. Thus, the company still enjoys an operatingleverage with EBIT margin improving 7.6ppt to 16%. Raising target price to RMB44.4from RMB38.87; risks We use DCF to value the company with a new target price of RMB44.4(oldRMB38.87), as we raise our FY17-FY19NP forecast by 7-9%. Our target priceimplies 13x/12x FY17/18PE, which is at a premium to its historical valuationpoint during de-stocking of channel inventory, and dividend yield at 4.6% forFY17E. Downside risks include competition, subsidy policy, and M&A.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-07-11 41.09 44.52 4.83% 43.43 5.69%
43.80 6.60% -- 详细
Three-year growth targets reiterated; 2Q17update Management reiterated its 2017-19targets, including (1) a sales CAGR of 25%, (2) a net profit CAGR of 30% as well as (3) built-in products to reach 20% of itssales (vs. 10% in 2016). Management has strong ambitions for built-inproducts (microwaves, ovens, steam ovens, dishwashers and water purifiers)and it set a 10-year target for embedded products to account for 50% of itssales. For 2Q17, management expects sales growth to track in line with its 25% growth target. The gross margin should not be significantly impacted by hikingraw material costs, thanks to Robam’s raw material reserves as well as a ~5%hike in its wholesale price (on 1April 2017). We note that raw materialsrepresent 80% of Robam’s cost of goods sold.Cooling tier-1city property could have an impact, but lower tiers remain strongManagement stated that it normally takes 9-12months for the government’sproperty control measures to take effect. Approximately 80% of demand forRobam’s products comes from new flats. As a result, management estimatesthe tier-1city slowdown could have some impact on its revenue in 4Q17and1Q18. That said, tier-1cities represent 17% of Robam’s sales, with tier-2andbelow accounting for 45% and 38%, respectively. Plans to enhance competitiveness and marketing efficiency Management attributes Robam’s premium ROE to its strong pricing power,thanks to its first mover advantages in the high-end kitchenware market andtechnology leadership. To widen its lead, Robam plans to focus more onproduct innovation and increase R&D spending from 3% of sales now to 5% inthe next three years. Robam believes its emerging competitors (Midea andHaier) have not yet established premium branding and lag in productinnovation.Robam also plans to nimbly reallocate its marketing resources by focusing lesson TV commercials and shifting to online/digital. With higher returns onmarketing expenditure, management hopes to keep marketing expenses incheck. Channel reform and e-commerce ASP upgrade Finally, Robam plans to reform its wholesaler network to introduce a moresophisticated level of coverage and branch into lower-tier cites. Its ecommerceASP tends to be lower than it is for its off-line channel. Thecompany plans to reduce the gap in ASP in order to eventually promote high-ASP built-in products online.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2017-06-23 14.30 16.22 10.42% 15.37 5.56%
15.10 5.59%
详细
This is in line with Haier’s long-term strategy. PML operates production ofautomation & customized intelligent equipment mainly for RF and WM,and provides solutions for factory management system. Qingdao Haier Co.,Ltd believed that the deal would help the company to further enhance itsintelligence manufacturing capability by integrating PML’s COSMOlineintelligence manufacturing digital platform into its own COSMOPlatplatform. We believe net margin should improve for both. This deal is the first step for materializing commitment. To recap, QingdaoHaier acquired 20% of FPA in 2009 and acquired the remaining stake ofthe company at a consideration of USD701m (RMB4.5bn) in 2012. In orderto avoid competition between Qinghai Haier and FPA, Haier Groupannounced in January 2011 that it will inject white goods asset to QingdaoHaier within five years. Though, this has been delayed as Haier Groupbelieves that FPA’s financial performance was short of expectations andneeds more time for integration. In 2015, Haier Group agreed to inject FPAasset into Qingdao Haier by June 2020.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2017-06-15 14.72 16.22 10.42% 15.37 2.54%
15.10 2.58%
详细
Maintaining Buy with new target price of RMB16.51 Premiumization strategy bearing fruit We maintain our Buy recommendation on Qingdao Haier thanks to its globalization and premiumization strategy. Its core business started to pick up since 2H16 and expects to see a robust growth in terms of sales and NP. The synergy of GEA is also ahead of expectation and thus it raised the accumulated synergy effect benefit from USD130m to USD310m for 2016-2019F, as stated in the annual report. We estimate the company to report NP CAGR of 18% for the three years vs. FY17 PE16x, which is inexpensive. Premiumization strategy bearing fruit To cater for current consumption upgrade trend, Qingdao Haier has laid out clear brand segmentation, specifically with premium brands, e.g. GEA to penetrate high-end market. It also sees additional RMB3bn revenue from high-end home furnishing and decoration channels. This strategy enabled Haier to secure growth with ASP increase, thus becoming a defensive margin player (GPM expanded 3.1ppt/1.5ppt to 31%/30% in 2016/1Q17). We conservatively expect GPM to improve to 32.2% in 2019. Across-the-board growth acceleration in 2017 The company expects RF and WM to see a better-than-industry growth in 2017 (we forecast the industry growth for RF will decline 1.1%, while that for WM will increase 3.9% in 2017 in volume vs China IOL’s projection of - 4.7%/+3.6%). AC will even grow faster and continue gaining market share. 1H trend will remain consistent with 1Q momentum across the board. We lift our DCF-based target price by 35.3% to RMB16.51 (old: RMB12.20) Our DCF-based target price is RMB16.51, as we raise our forecast by 8-9% for 2017-18 and roll over our DCF forecast we used a blended COE of 8.5%, long-term growth rate of 1.5% and a target capital structure with zero debt assumption. This translates into 16/14x FY17/18E P/E, which is in line with its historical PE multiple. Downside company risks: 1) slower-than-expected revenue growth in domestic and overseas markets, 2) smooth transition of the acquired business, 3) failure to achieve synergy, and 4) unfavorable FX.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2017-06-15 35.68 37.12 -- 41.65 16.73%
41.79 17.12%
详细
Maintaining Buy with new target price at RMB38.87 We expect domestic market sale-in volume to rise 16% to 70m in 2017 We maintain our Buy recommendation on Gree as we believe it will benefit from its strategy of offsetting the rise in raw material prices with new model launches. This move to not raise its retail prices too aggressively will help gain volume. However, given its lion’s share in the market, we expect Gree’s share to increase 2ppt to 45%. Meanwhile, its plan to diversify the business from AC is likely a mid-term strategy, which is unlikely to have key contributions in the short term. We raise our NP for FY17/18 by 21%/15% and introduce the 2019 forecast. We raise our TP by 36.5% to RMB38.87, which is a combination of earnings revisions and is based on rolling over of our first DCF forecast year. We expect domestic market sale-in volume to rise 16% to 70m in 2017 This is based on a 2.2% rise in retail demand to 69m sets (buoyant property market and government promoting central AC) and ~3m inventory channel restocking. Please refer to Figure 19 and Figure 20 for our retail demand model. Outlook for Gree We expect a 21% rise in sales in 2017, of which 81% would come from AC, up 23%. In our model, we expect a 19% rise in sales volume to 42.9m in 2017, which will likely normalize to 6% each year for 2018/19. We expect overall GPM to increase 0.5ppt to 34% due to launch of new models and we expect EBITM to improve 1.7ppt to 14.2%. Raising target price to RMB38.87from RMB28.48; risks We use DCF to value the company with a new target price of RMB38.87 (old RMB28.48), as we roll over the DCF forecast year to 2027 and raise our FY17/18 forecast by 21%/15% (details on page 3). We also introduce the 2019 forecast. Our target price implies 12x/11x FY17/18 PE, which is at a premium to its historical valuation point during de-stocking of channel inventory, and dividend yield at 4.6% for FY17E. Downside risks include competition, subsidy policy, and M&A.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-05-16 42.00 44.52 4.83% 45.88 9.24%
45.88 9.24%
详细
We adjusted our TP and EPS by a factor of 1.3x to reflect the increase in number of shares to 949m shares as a result of the company’s announcement of 3 bonus shares for every 10 existing shares. The ex date was on 10 May.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-05-02 41.11 44.11 3.86% 42.83 4.18%
45.88 11.60%
详细
Update from 1Q17 conference call. Management commented that the overall performance in 1Q was better than it had expected, owing mainly to 1) a strong performance, with consumption upgrades in lower-tier cities with active property markets, 2) less of a slowdown from tier-1 cities, despite the government’s control of the property market, and 3) better-than-expected online sales, with 40% growth. The GPM was also better than expected, despite a raw material price increase, due to a rise in sales from the online business and a product mix shift that offset the raw material price increase. With the company raising prices in April, we expect the GPM to continue to improve. As for opex, the company expects this to be under control, except for R&D, which is expected to rise. Deutsche Bank’s view. On the back of a better 1Q17 outlook, which is in the first year of its three-year plan (one of the targets is to achieve a 30% net profit CAGR over 2017-19), we raise our FY17/18/19E net profit by 5/7/9%, assuming that the above net profit growth target is achievable. We raise our target price by 10%, to RMB57.88, which translates into 26x/20x FY17/18E PE. We believe this is justified given the above-mentioned 30% CAGR. Maintaining Buy. Our primary valuation methodology is a DCF (as investors focus on Robam’s long-term value), employing COE of 9.5% (RFR of 3.9% and ERP of 5.6%, both following Deutsche Bank’s house view), a beta of 1 and a TGR of 1.5% (in line with our Hong Kong and China consumer coverage). Downside risks include a weaker property market, higher material prices, new competitors, and price wars.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-05-02 41.11 40.04 -- 42.83 4.18%
45.88 11.60%
详细
NP grew 54.3% partially due to higher government subsidies Robam reported NP up 54.3% to RMB 2512m NP on net sales up 34% to RMB1.4bn in 1Q17. Sales/NP accounts for 19%/16% of our 2017 full-year forecast. For reference, 1Q16 sales/NP accounted for 18%/14% of full-year sales/NP, respectively. Excluding exceptional item, particularly government subsidies which increased by 433% to RMB54.4m, core earnings grow 33.13%. GPM increased 0.5ppt to 59% and EBIT margin remains largely stable. AR grew 34.23% which was mainly due to sales increase. Prepayment increase was mainly attributed to advanced purchase of raw materials. To recap, Robam outlined a strategic target, i.e., “Triple 30%” plan, during their 2016 annual results analyst meeting. 1) Earnings growth of 30% CAGR: management is confident of delivering the earnings growth target, albeit revenue CAGR may be slower than 30%; 2) Market share for range hood to increase to 30%; 3) Sales volume for high-end range hoods to lead that of the second player by 30%. The company will host a conference call at 10:00 am HK time on 26 April 2017. We will review our estimates post conf call.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-04-07 37.26 40.04 -- 59.28 21.23%
45.88 23.13%
详细
New TP at RMB52.54; maintaining BuyWe rate Robam as Buy as its strong network (it still has penetration growth)and additional investment in R&D (resulting in differentiated products) shoulddrive its sales/NP growth at a CAGR of 27%/28% for its new three-year plan(2017-19). We believe Robam is set to benefit from a strong property market inthe past 12 months and consumption upgrades for home improvement(demand for built-in kitchen appliances). We raise our 17/18 NP forecast by5%/3% and introduce our 2019 forecast. Our new TP is RMB52.54. 2017: healthy industry trend will likely continueRobam plans to hike prices by c. 5% on average, starting from 2Q17. Management views this price hike as an industry-wide reflection of rawmaterial costs. The company indicated it will not cut prices in exchange forvolume growth. Robam’s comments likely suggest strong industry pricediscipline in 2017, despite new entrants into the kitchen appliance market. Rollover of 3-year target; 30% earnings CAGR guided for 2017-2020Robam provided upbeat earnings guidance as part of its refreshed 3-year plan. To achieve the targets, it wishes to: (1) further strengthen its R&D to cementleadership for the core range hood & cooker hood businesses. (2) seek storeexpansion opportunities into tier 3 cities, aiming to open 300-400 brandedstores each year, (3) further grow the built-in kitchen appliance business. Robam sees built-in products as the biggest beneficiary of the consumptionupgrade trend, and sees most potential in steam ovens. (4) Robam alsoconsiders global collaborations, including R&D and potential M&A. DCF-based target price raised to RMB52.54In this update, we raise 17/18 earnings forecasts by 5%/3%, mainly to accountfor better-than-expected market conditions and innovation. We also roll overour valuation model. This leads us to lift our target price by 14%. Our primaryvaluation methodology is DCF (as investors focus on Robam’s long-termvalue), employing a COE of 9.5% (RFR of 3.9% and ERP of 5.6% both followingDeutsche Bank house view), beta of 1, and TGR of 1.5% (in line with our HongKong and China consumer coverage). Downside risks include a weakerproperty market, higher material prices, new competitors and price wars.
东方明珠 传播与文化 2016-05-30 23.84 35.10 72.91% 26.33 9.43%
26.09 9.44%
详细
Management of Shanghai Oriental Pearl attended our Access Asia conference;the following are the key highlights. IPTV’s growth potentials resume. Management explained that there hasbeen a change in strategy in 2016. Originally, it has been industryconsensus that IPTV’s size will shrink and thus its focus in 2015 has beenon developing internet TV and other businesses while managementexpects IPTV to shrink. However, it noticed that it still has potential andthus it continues to grow this business. In 1Q2016, IPTV’s ARPU especiallyfor the value-added business continued to grow. Investing in content – leveraging assets from its parent company andDragon TV. In 2016, it will increase its content investment. However,management noticed that instead of buying content copyright, it shouldincrease its content production like drama, entertainment and varietyshows. In its restructuring, it has a movie and content production company.In addition, it can leverage on SMG and Dragon TV’s resources andengage in co-production of content. Business plan to cater for new regulatory environment – more to sharewith investors in 2H16. With the Regulation No. 6 released on early May,management explained that it touched on 3 areas namely contentproviders, distributors and platform players. It believes the IPTVdevelopment has more clarity than others. Thus, it will continue to workwith China Telecom and explore opportunity with China Unicom and, inthe future, China Mobile (when they receive an IPTV license). As forinternet TV and mobile TV segments, management is still evaluating thechanges required by new regulations. With new management on board,management will share further details with investors about its businessplan in 2H2016.
东方明珠 传播与文化 2016-05-10 25.66 35.10 72.91% 26.19 1.12%
26.09 1.68%
详细
Long-term thesis intact despite heavier near-term expenditures Heavier investments to support more aggressive internet TV user target After recent interviews with management and experts, we now expect Oriental Pearl to become more aggressive in acquiring internet TV users. We agree with management’s strategy to enhance the internet TV market share to better leverage the industry’s growth potential. Nevertheless, the more aggressive user acquisitions will likely lead to heavier expenditure, especially on content investment and subsidy programs. We thus reduced 16E/17E recurring product by 9.9%/6.9% and the DCF-based target price to CNY36. Heavier investments to support more aggressive internet TV user target Oriental Pearl (OP) indicated its target to achieve 25mn active internet TV users in 2016. This is higher than the company’s original guidance of 20m and our previous forecast of 17.5m. To achieve such we expect OP to (1) increase content investment: we now expect OP to invest RMB4.5bn in content in 16E- 18E (vs. RMB3.9bn previously). Due to the fast amortization schedule, we expect such to affect OP’s gross margin; (2) accelerate the OTT box subsidy program; and (3) increase marketing. We cut 16E/17E recurring earnings by 9.9%/6.9%, respectively, to reflect aforementioned expenditures (Figure 5). Good long-term value; TV shopping, tourism and advertisement steady Despite the heavier expenditure required in the near-term, we continue to like OP for its unique resources. These include (1) both B2C and B2B2C channels to grow internet TV users, (2) a stable IPTV business to deliver leverage against fixed costs (mainly content amortization), (3) healthy growth in TV shopping, tourism and advertisement businesses and (4) strong legal compliances. The recent round of regulation tightening (Figure 9) should enhance OP’s competitive advantage, in our view. DCF TP of CNY36; SoTP analysis suggests potential not fully discounted; risks We value OP based on DCF methodology as we expect investors to focus on OP’s long-term monetization of business resources. We derive a WACC of 9.6%, with a cost of equity of 10.1% (risk-free rate = 3.9%, beta = 1.12, market risk premium = 5.6%) and cost of debt (after tax) of 4.5%. Our SoTP analysis suggests the market does not fully price in OP’s business potential. Downside risks: weaker user acquisition & ARPU of internet TV, more severe content price inflation, slower property monetization and regulatory loosening.
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