H1 net profit attributable to the parent +39.6% YoY, slightly above consensus In H116, revenue/net profit attributable to the parent company wasRmb2.031bn/311m, up 19%/39.6% YoY; net profit excluding one-offs came in atRmb314m, up 38.3% YoY. Q216 revenue/net profit attributable to the parentcompany rose 9.8%/28.3% YoY, slightly better than expectations. In H116, netoperating cash flow was Rmb310m, up 18x YoY and equivalent to net profit. Thecompany guided for 20%-40% YoY growth in Q1-Q316 net profit attributable to theparent company. Gross margin up sharply, expense ratios higher Gross margin reached 68.19% in H116, up 4.7ppt from H115 and a relatively highlevel in the company’s history. We believe this was the main reason for faster net profitgrowth than revenue growth. We attribute the high gross margin to falling TCM rawmaterial prices. Expense ratios increased 3.2ppt from H115 and net margin expandedto a historical high of 15.19%. We expect net margin to steadily rise with a higherproduction scale and stabilization of the sales force. Lianhua Qingwen revenue up fast In H116, anti-cold drug (the Lianhua Qingwen series) revenue rose 44% YoY toRmb388m, higher than market expectations. We estimate full-year anti-cold drugrevenue at Rmb800m+. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drug revenue increased12.6% YoY to Rmb1.38bn in H116. IMS data on sample hospitals shows that thecompany’s Stilbene Li strong heart capsules/Shensong Yangxin capsules/Tongxinluocapsules posted revenue growth of 24%/11.7%/6% YoY in H116, faster than in 2015.Food and beverage revenue was Rmb8.13m in H116. Valuation: Maintain price target of Rmb23.32 and Buy rating We maintain our 2016-18E EPS at Rmb0.48/0.56/0.63. Our DCF-based price target ofRmb23.32 (8.1% WACC) implies 42x 2017E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

Q2net profit (excl. one-offs) attributable to parent +42% YoY, beat consensus Jointown's H116revenue/net profit attributable to the parent came to Rmb29,786/310m, up 24.66%/23.76% YoY; excluding one-offs, net profit was Rmb307m, up36.25% YoY. Q216revenue/net profit (excl. one-offs) attributable to the parent rose20%/42% YoY, beating consensus. H116accounts receivable rose 44% YoY and netcash flow from operating activities was -Rmb3.064bn, mainly due to a change in thecompany's business model which caused an increase in accounts receivable, and itsissuance of short-term financing bills and accounts receivable asset-backed notes tomeet its funding needs. Business mix continued to improve In H116, Jointown's high-margin strategic businesses – medical equipment/TCM rawmaterials/food/retailing – grew rapidly, 49%/20%/49%/62% from H115, driving asustained improvement in the overall business mix. The company continued to step upefforts to expand its direct sales to hospitals, with direct sales to Class 2and abovehospitals rising 34.77% YoY. We expect the weighting of high-margin businesses toincrease further in the next three years on the back of the company's nationwide drugdistribution network, which could help offset the negative impact of falling distributiongross margin, driving an improvement in overall gross margin. E-commerce achieved turnaround; Jointown launched innovative business pilot In H116, B2C e-commerce business ehaoyao.com grew rapidly, posting revenue ofRmb400m, up 137% YoY, and net profit of Rmb4.79m, a turnaround from lossesearlier. The company is experimenting with long-distance sales and distribution of somedrugs at the Central Hospital of Wuhan's outpatient pharmacy, with charges settledthrough the Internet. In the long term, given the trend of prescriptions moving out ofhospitals, we think Jointown is one of the companies most likely to become a leadingplayer in China’s drug e-commerce market, judging from its software and hardwarequality. Valuation: Maintain Rmb22.98PT and Buy rating We maintain our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb0.52/0.65/0.79. Our DCF-based PT of Rmb22.98(6.8% WACC) implies 44x/35x 2016/17E PE, similar to peers. We maintain our Buyrating.

Earnings largely in line with our expectations. H116 revenue was Rmb14.09bn (+9.95% YoY) and net profit attributable to theparent was Rmb542m (+39.97% YoY), or Rmb404m (+8.26% YoY) excluding oneoffs,largely in line with our expectations. In H1, the sale of a 67% interest in ZhijunSuzhou, an antibiotic API business, helped reduce the drag on the company andgenerate an Rmb120m investment gain. Solid growth in distribution business. The pharmaceutical distribution division posted revenue of Rmb13.305bn (+11.23%YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent of Rmb235m (+7.68% YoY). As a leaderin pharma distribution in the regions of Guangdong and Guangxi, the company couldfurther gain market share on the implementation of the two-invoice system (underwhich only three parties are allowed during the sales, ie, drug manufacturer todistributor, then from distributor to hospital). We expect revenue from pharmadistribution to rise c12% in full-year 2016. The pharma manufacturing division had an8.39% YoY decline in H1 revenue to Rmb787m but posted a 12.56% YoY rise in netprofit attributable to the parent, driven by higher gross margin. Steady progress in asset restructuring, with completion expected in Q4. The company's announced asset restructuring plan was passed at a shareholders'meeting and submitted to the CSRC for review. If the plan is approved, we look forcompletion in Q416, when Guoda Drugstore, the largest retail pharmacy by scale inChina, will be consolidated onto the company's books. We believe Guoda wouldbenefit from the separation of clinic from pharmacy and higher industry concentrationand would expect improved profitability for it. Valuation: Price target of Rmb82.38; maintain Buy. We maintain our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb2.11/3.04/3.55. Our DCF-based price target ofRmb82.38 (WACC 7.1%) implies 39x 2016E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

Channel destocking continuing, pharmaceutical manufacturing better Tasly reported H116 revenue of Rmb6.4bn (+2.71% YoY). Pharmaceuticalmanufacturing revenue was down 15.31% YoY while pharmaceutical distributionrevenue was up 20.37% YoY. Net profit attributable to the parent was Rmb685m (-17.5% YoY). We estimate the company’s pharmaceutical manufacturing revenue/netprofit attributable to the parent fell 3%/15.8% YoY in Q216, a marked improvementfrom Q116 (-28.9%/-19.8%). Controlling payment collection and reducing channelinventories showed obvious results, as net operating cash flow rose Rmb500m (or 2.9x)in H116 from H115. At end-Q2, the parent’s accounts receivable (mainly for thepharmaceutical manufacturing segment) fell 370m from end-Q1. End-market sales still growing rapidly IMS data on sample hospitals in China show that in Jan-May, the company's sales fromCompound Danshen Dripping Pills/Yangxueqingnao granule grew 9%/12% and salesfrom salvianolate injection/Purekase rose 2.3x/5x. We see end-market demand for thecompany’s major products still growing rapidly, with pharmaceutical manufacturingrevenue growth likely to recover in H216 and 2016 after destocking ends. Promising outlook for TCM internationalisation The FDA phase III multi-centre clinical trial of Compound Danshen Dripping Pills hasbeen fully completed, with the results to be un-blinded. We expect the final approvaldecision to be announced in Q3/Q417. Valuation: Cutting EPS estimates, lower price target to Rmb47.35, Maintain Buy Due to lower earnings on destocking, we are cutting our 2016/17/18E EPS9.9%/7.4%/8.7% to Rmb1.45/1.75/1.99. We derive our price target of Rmb47.35 froma DCF-based methodology (assuming 9.0% WACC), implying 2016/17E PE of 33/27x.We maintain our Buy rating.

Earnings slightly beat expectations H116 revenue was Rmb2.674bn (+5% YoY), net profit attributable to the parent (ex. one-offs) was Rmb795m (+9.83% YoY) and EPS were Rmb1.27, representing 44% ofour full-year forecast. Due to a high comparison base in 2015, Q216 revenue rose6.8% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent rose 15.6% YoY, slightly beatingour and consensus expectations. E-Jiao pulp grew rapidly; gross margin of E-Jiao series improved noticeably With distribution channels for E-Jiao pulp becoming more streamlined following pricehikes in 2015, we estimate H116 revenue growth is c35%, E-Jiao block revenueremains largely unchanged from the same period last year and Taohuaji revenuegrowth is c35%. Helped by product price hikes and product mix changes, the grossmargin of E-Jiao series improved 3.72ppts. As autumn and winter are peak periods forE-Jiao consumption, we believe E-Jiao series is likely to show improving growth in H216and the company's strong brand and industry chain advantages could help it maintain ahigh gross margin. Strategic stock of donkey hide increased In H116, the company stocked up on more donkey hides through local and overseaspurchases, resulting in its raw material inventory increasing from Rmb440m toRmb950m. In our view, on one hand, China's dwindling donkey breeding stock is likelyto improve, with upstream farmers becoming more motivated by the company'sincentivisation strategy; on the other hand, with the company tapping overseasresources, donkey hide sourced from overseas now accounts for 30%+ of thecompany's donkey hide supply. Valuation: Raising PT to Rmb66.92; maintain Buy rating We are raising our 2016-18E EPS 2%/5%/7% to Rmb2.88/3.37/3.91 on the company'sgross margin improvement and rapid growth of E-Jiao pulp. Our new DCF-based PT ofRmb66.92 (WACC 7.2%) implies 23x/20x 2016/17E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

Core business remained steady; revenue fell 33.95% on subsidiary exclusion. H116 operating revenue decreased 33.95% to Rmb871m, mainly as Jiangxi JointownPharmaceutical, a subsidiary sold at end-2015, was no longer included in Jiangzhong'sfinancial statements. Excluding that, Jiangzhong's core business increased steadily, asdrug manufacturing revenue rose 0.48% (including Rmb757m of OTC drug revenue,up 4.93% YoY). Healthcare product revenue decreased 22.24% YoY to Rmb110m andthe liquor segment posted revenue of Rmb1.48m. Gross margin improved moderately after Jiangxi Jointown was sold. H116 gross margin increased 23ppts, mainly because the low-margin drug distributionbusiness was sold. Drug manufacturing gross margin rose 0.84ppt, mainly boosted byOTC drug gross margin, which rose 1.98 ppts in H116. Gross margin of the healthcareproduct segment decreased 11.46ppts. Expenses decreased; net profit rose substantially. H116 expenses declined, with selling/administrative/financial expenses down 15%/8%/96% YoY, as Jiangxi Jointown was no longer consolidated in Jiangzhong's financialstatements and Jiangzhong changed its sales strategy, marketing its products with anon-advertising-based sales model that reduced Rmb40m in advertising expenses inH116. H116 financial expenses fell Rmb15.08m YoY due to a corporate bondredemption in 2015. Net profit increased 41% YoY to Rmb197m in H116, with EPS atRmb0.66, due to lower expenses. Valuation: Price target of Rmb44.56; maintain Buy. The company is exploring a non-advertising-based sales model to adapt to a changingenvironment, which we think is more effective and likely to save a large amount ofexpenses. In addition, we view prices of Jiangzhong's OTC products have potential andit is likely to lift OTC drug prices steadily on brand advantages. Our 2016-18E EPS areRmb1.43/1.85/2.23. We derive our price target of Rmb44.56 using DCF-basedmethodology (6.7% WACC) and maintain our Buy rating.

Proportion of direct sales to hospitals likely to rise further In the longer run, we believe policies such as the two-invoice system (under which onlythree parties are allowed during sales, i.e., drug manufacturer to distributor, thendistributor to hospital) and business tax-to-VAT switchover will undermine thecompetitiveness of substandard small players and benefit the development of bigplayers such as Jointown. In the short term, if the two-invoice system is replicated on alarge scale, Jointown, which has logistics and warehousing advantages, will continue tointegrate downstream distributors, increasing the coverage of hospitals and proportionof direct sales to hospitals. We expect Jointown's distribution business to haverevenue/gross profit CAGR of 20%/24% in 2016-18. Higher gross margin in next 3 years driven by higher-margin businesses Jointown is developing higher-margin businesses, including traditional Chineseherbs/TCM decoction pieces, medical device distribution and food/health products, onthe back of its nationwide drug distribution network. We estimate a higher weightingof higher-margin businesses could help offset the negative impact of falling distributiongross margin in the next three years, driving overall gross margin up to 8.4% in 2018from 7.6% in 2015. Pharma e-commerce should be profitable in next 3 years The pharma e-commerce segment has strong growth potential, as it can improve theefficiency of diagnosis/treatment resource allocation and drug distribution under theexisting healthcare system. Despite the lack of a national policy, pilot work is under wayin various places. We expect Jointown's pharma e-commerce business to see lossesnarrow sharply this year and be profitable by 2018. Longer term, we think Jointowncould be a leading pharma e-commerce player in China amid the trend of moreprescriptions being filled outside hospitals. Valuation: Cutting PT to Rmb22.98; maintain Buy rating Due to the rising proportion of direct sales to hospitals and falling financing costs, weslightly raise our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.52/0.65/0.79 from Rmb0.49/0.61/0.73. We cutour terminal ROIC to 7% from 12% and mid-term reinvestment rate to 62% from70%, given that drug price cuts hurt growth in pharma distribution, with lowerprofitability ahead. Our new DCF-based PT of Rmb22.98 (WACC 6.8%) implies 44x/35x2016/17E PE, in line with the peer average. Maintain Buy.

Main earnings driver: Compound Xueshuantong Capsule. Compound Xueshuantong Capsule, which contributed 56% of revenue and 72% ofgross profit in 2015, is the company's main earnings growth driver. We expect thisproduct to maintain rapid growth on progress in essential medicine tenders andreplacement of injectable xueshuantong products. In addition, we expect CompoundXueshuantong Capsule's gross margin to hold steady given high pseudo-ginsenginventories. Compound Xueshuantong Capsule to keep growing quickly. Unlike other circulation-promoting cardio/cerebrovascular drugs, the company'sCompound Xueshuantong Capsule is also indicated for the treatment of retinal veinocclusion, which helps get the product into hospital pharmacies. With CompoundXueshuantong Capsule replacing injectable xueshuantong and winning drug tenders inimportant new regions such as Shandong and Shanghai, we expect this product to posta 16.5% revenue CAGR in 2016-18E. Pseudo-ginseng inventories stil high; we expect stable GPM in next 2 years. Inventories remain high for pseudo-ginseng, the company's most important rawmaterial input. We believe pseudo-ginseng prices are still trending down, suggestingthat its key xueshuangtong product series will enjoy stable gross margins over the nexttwo years. Valuation: Trimming PT to Rmb15.17, maintain Buy. Considering medical insurance cost controls and Q116's lower-than-expected growthfor Compound Xueshuantong Capsule and Naoxuantong Capsule, we are lowering our2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.53/0.63/0.71 from Rmb0.58/0.70/0.75. Our DCF-derived PT ofRmb15.17 (WACC 7.3%) implies 24x 2017E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

Direct-to-hospital sales helped by Beijing's transparent procurement initiative. Cachet ranks fifth in Beijing's direct-to-hospital drug sales market and is one of fivecompanies engaged in delivery of essential medicines in Beijing. Beijing's transparentprocurement initiative, which began this year, has done away with the requirement foreach medicine to have a maximum of three delivery companies. In the Beijing market,the company has advantages in warehousing and logistics. All of this could help driverapid growth in the company's direct sales of drugs to public hospitals. GPO/PBM: Bulk procurement; aligned with sector; replication to continue. The company was China's first pharmaceutical distributor to offer a platform for bulkprocurement and price negotiations. Its centralized drug procurement (GPO) model hasbeen replicated for hospitals run by Shougang Steel, Ansteel Group, China AerospaceScience & Industry and CNNC. Also, we expect the revenue contribution from GPObusiness with AVIC's hospital unit and pharmacy benefit management (PBM)partnerships with Bengbu and Ezhou to be Rmb1.2-1.6bn and ~Rmb2bn, respectively,once these businesses reach maturity. We believe GPO and PBM are well aligned withindustry policies and meet the needs of hospitals, and we expect these businesses tomake further progress in other medical groups and other parts of China. Delivery network for devices and high-value consumables. The company has built a sales network for devices and high-value medical consumablesthat covers nearly 1,000 tertiary hospitals in 30 provinces. This business is mainlyfocused on cardiology supplies, where it has the leading market share. It has alsostarted expanding into distribution of supplies for orthopedics and general surgery. Weforecast this business to post a 30%+ organic revenue CAGR in the next three years. Valuation: Lowering PT to Rmb49.85, maintain Buy. We maintain our 2016-18E EPS at Rmb0.97/1.29/1.63 and lower our terminal ROICassumption to 7.9% from 8.2%. Our new DCF-derived price target of Rmb49.85(WACC 7.3%) implies 39x 2017E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

Major shareholder ups stake on secondary market, strengthening its control Dong-E E-Jiao announced that its controlling shareholder, China ResourcesPharmaceutical Investment, will raise its stake in the company by 4.66% on thesecondary market, with the aim of supporting the company's long-term strategy andboosting its profitability. After the increase, the controlling shareholder will hold a totalstake (direct and indirect) of 27.8%. Aside from solidifying its control over thecompany, this also signals confidence in the company's future. Management increased stake in large, leveraged purchase On 7 June, the company announced that six executives including its president, QinYufeng, had acquired ~2.65m shares (0.4% of outstanding shares) on the secondarymarket via two asset management plans. The Rmb120m cost was funded through cashand structured bank loans, with a funding cost of ~7-8% and 6-month lock-up. Thiswas management's largest ever shareholding increase in terms of value. Given thecompany's lack of equity incentives for senior management, this action is likely to bepositive for corporate governance. Raw materials price pressure set to ease on brand and value chain advantages The company's share of the dietary supplements market rose to 5.2% in 2015 from4.7% in 2012, with a No. 1 rank in supplements for women, far higher than rivalproducers of e-jiao. Due to the company's strategy of hiking prices to boost upstreamprofits, farmers are becoming more willing to raise donkeys, and it has also successfullyimplemented an overseas hide sourcing strategy. Raw materials pressure is likely to easeas a result of these measures. Valuation: Slightly raising PT to Rmb62.13; maintain Buy We maintain our 2016-18E earnings. We think the higher stakes of the majorshareholder and management are likely to lead to improved corporate governance. Also, in the longer term, the company should now be better positioned to leverage theadvantages of China Resources Group and unlock synergies. Therefore, we are raisingour medium-term ROIC assumption to 23% from 21%. Our new DCF-derived PT ofRmb62.13 (WACC 7.2%) implies 22x/19x 2016/17E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

Three major prescription cardiovascular drugs likely to see growth pick up. The competitive landscape is favourable for Yiling's Shensong Yangxin, Qili Qiangxinand Lianhua Qingwen capsules, and there is room for an increase in the number ofhospitals they are sold to. Their revenues are likely to grow at a quicker pace as thedrug tenders progress. For the company's TCM preparations segment, our 2016-18Erevenue growth is 14.2%/13.7%/13.2% and gross profit growth is16%/13.7%/13.2%. Yiling's main products are under less pressure to reduce prices. Yiling generates more than 90% of its revenue from oral TCM products to which it hasexclusive rights. It is able to maintain its bid-winning prices at good levels and is underless pricing pressure from tenders. For Shensong Yangxin, Tongxinluo, Qili Qiangxinand Lianhua Qingwen capsules, the difference between the lowest bid-winning priceand the average bid-winning price is only 2.6%/5.6%/3.2%/3.0%. In the current roundof tenders, we expect price reductions for these four products of less than 6%. Biochemical drugs segment progressing well. Yiling has received GMP certifications in Europe and the US for its preparation plant. For chemical drugs, its development of ANDA products is progressing well, with fiveproducts submitted to the FDA for approval. It is also likely to submit 15 productscurrently in R&D for ANDA approval by the end of 2017. We expect the biochemicaldrugs segment to become Yiling's new sales revenue and profit growth driver andbelieve it is likely to contribute 10%/5% of revenue and gross profit in 2018, althoughthe comparison base is currently low. Valuation: Lowering PT to Rmb23.32; maintain Buy rating. We maintain our 2016-18E EPS at Rmb0.48/0.56/0.63 and lower the terminal ROICfrom 14% to 12.2%. We derive our PT of Rmb23.32 using a DCF-based methodology(8.1% WACC). Our PT implies 42x 2017E PE. We maintain Buy.

Management increased shareholdings at high cost and with borrowed funds The company announced that its six senior managers including President, Mr. QinYufeng, had bought 2.648m of its shares or 0.4% of its equity, on the secondarymarket via two asset management plans. The shareholding increase cost Rmb120m andwas funded by the company’s own capital and structured bank loans, with a fundingcost of c7-8% and a share lock-up period of six months. This marked the company’sbiggest shareholding increase in terms of value, and in our view demonstratesmanagement’s confidence in the company’s development. Defending high gross margin due to brand and value chain advantages With a strong brand, the company has cemented its image as a high-end healthproduct brand via price hikes and has nurtured a stable group of core customers inrecent years. We believe it can continue raising its prices to offset increases in the priceof donkey hides, a key raw material, allowing it to maintain a 70%+ gross margin. Overseas hide sourcing strategy starting to show resultsChina's donkey inventory has trended lower in recent years on high feed prices and alack of efficient breeding technology. This has driven annual increases in donkey hideprices. On one hand, the company is building upstream facilities to gain more controlover donkey hide sourcing. On the other hand, the company is buying donkey hidesfrom overseas. Foreign markets currently account for over 30% of its donkey hidepurchases. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating, price target of Rmb59.13 We maintain our 2016/17/18E EPS of Rmb2.83/3.22/3.65. We derive our Rmb59.13price target using DCF (WACC 7.2%). The shares are trading at a relatively lowvaluation of 17x/15x 2016/17E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

National retailer + leading distributor in Guangdong and Guangxi. In March 2016, the company announced its restructuring plan to sell somepharmaceutical manufacturing assets to Modern Pharmaceutical and acquire a 100%stake in Guoda Drugstore and another three distribution companies in Guangdong andGuangxi. After its injection into the company, Guoda will have access to a betterfinancing platform, and we think the company is likely to become a leadingpharmaceutical distribution company in Guangdong and Guangxi, as well as a leadingnational pharmaceutical retailer. Guoda Drugstore: Industry consolidation; look for growth post restructuring. We believe the next three years will be critical for a rapid increase in the concentrationof drugstores in the industry. Since the company can provide a better financingplatform for Guoda's M&A activities, we expect Guoda to post a revenue CAGR ofabove 25% in the next three years, driven by organic and inorganic expansion. Guodais likely to raise its net margin from the current 1.7% to 3.7% in 2018 on an improvingcontribution from centralised purchasing, shifting towards grassroots markets andmarket-oriented incentives. Pharmaceutical distribution: Market share to rise annually. As per its announced restructuring plan, the company will issue shares to fund thepurchase of Guangdong Dongfang Uptodate & Special Medicine, Foshan NanhaiPharmaceutical Group and Guangdong South Pharmaceutical Foreign Trade. Theseacquisitions could improve its distribution network and offerings in Guangdong andGuangxi. Following the restructuring, the trend of the strong getting stronger in thoseregions will become more pronounced. We estimate the company's pharmaceuticaldistribution business at cRmb30bn post restructuring, equivalent to a market share ofc20% in Guangdong and Guangxi. For the next three years, we estimate thecompany's market share will rise c0.5-1ppt annually, and with a high contribution fromdirect sales to hospitals (>70%), it is likely to benefit from implementation of the twoinvoicesystem (under which only three parties are allowed during the sales; ie, drugmanufacturer to distributor, then distributor to hospital). Valuation: Rmb82.38 PT (from Rmb91), maintain Buy. We are revising our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb2.11/3.04/3.55 from Rmb2.32/2.98/3.52 onthe asset restructuring and amortisation of capital assets. Our DCF-based PT ofRmb82.38 (7.1% WACC) implies 39x 2016E PE. We maintain our Buy rating.

下调盈利预测和目标价 由于受高基数影响,16Q1收入利润增速均仅3.5%左右,我们下调2016/2017/2018年盈利预测至2.83/3.22/3.65元/股(原预测2.99/3.49/3.97元/股),下调目标价至59.13元。主要调整包括:1)考虑到Q1发货低于预期,我们将阿胶块全年的销量增速预测由-3%下调至-6%。2)将阿胶块2016/17年价格预计涨幅由20%/20%下调至15%/12%。3)将桃花姬2016年收入增速预测由35%下调至25%。我们对公司未来3个季度业绩增速恢复较为乐观。 品牌及产业链优势突出,有能力维持较高毛利率 公司品牌较强,近年通过提价形成了自身高端保健品的品牌形象,有稳定的核心消费群体,具备持续提价能力,能够抵消原料驴皮价格上涨,维持70%以上的高毛利率。 海外谋皮战略成效初显 受饲养成本高、缺乏高效繁殖基数等影响,驴存栏量逐年下滑,驴皮价格逐年提升。公司一方面建设上游原料基地,掌控驴皮收购终端,另一方面从海外收购驴皮锁定上游驴皮原料,目前海外来源的驴皮已占公司驴皮来源的30%以上。 估值:下调目标价至59.13元,维持“买入”评级 我们通过DCF贴现现金流模型(WACC=7.2%)得出公司目标价59.13元。 目前公司股价对应2016EPE16X较可比公司27X有较大折价,已过度反映公司进入平稳增长的阶段。维持“买入”评级。

下调盈利预测和目标价 由于受高基数影响,16Q1收入利润增速均仅3.5%左右,我们下调2016/2017/2018年盈利预测至2.83/3.22/3.65元/股(原预测2.99/3.49/3.97元/股),下调目标价至59.13元。主要调整包括:1)考虑到Q1发货低于预期,我们将阿胶块全年的销量增速预测由-3%下调至-6%。2)将阿胶块2016/17年价格预计涨幅由20%/20%下调至15%/12%。3)将桃花姬2016年收入增速预测由35%下调至25%。我们对公司未来3个季度业绩增速恢复较为乐观。 品牌及产业链优势突出,有能力维持较高毛利率 公司品牌较强,近年通过提价形成了自身高端保健品的品牌形象,有稳定的核心消费群体,具备持续提价能力,能够抵消原料驴皮价格上涨,维持70%以上的高毛利率。 海外谋皮战略成效初显 受饲养成本高、缺乏高效繁殖基数等影响,驴存栏量逐年下滑,驴皮价格逐年提升。公司一方面建设上游原料基地,掌控驴皮收购终端,另一方面从海外收购驴皮锁定上游驴皮原料,目前海外来源的驴皮已占公司驴皮来源的30%以上。 估值:下调目标价至59.13元,维持“买入”评级 我们通过DCF贴现现金流模型(WACC=7.2%)得出公司目标价59.13元。 目前公司股价对应2016EPE16X较可比公司27X有较大折价,已过度反映公司进入平稳增长的阶段。维持“买入”评级。