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信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-02-05 34.74 49.51 249.89% 41.45 19.31%
43.34 24.76%
详细
2017 net profit up 78%-88%, but trailing the expectation of ~100% growth… Sunway released 2017 result preview and expects net profit to reachRMB950mn to RMB1bn (up 79% YoY to 88% YoY). Despite being a stellarresult, this figure missed DBe/market expectation (of 100% growth) by ~10%. …due to order/ASP cuts from some clients, forex, finance costs and others Sunway attribute the miss to 1) order cuts and ASP erosion from some clients(we expect to Oppo, Vivo and tier-two Chinese OEMs) leading to slower toplinegrowth and margin decline in 4Q17, 2) the surge in forex loss (due to RMBappreciation against USD), and interest expense (to finance the Changzhouplants), and 3) RMB100mn+ YoY increase in opex (due to aggressive businessexpansion). Our prior Sunway earnings model had properly factored in theincrease in opex (the third factor), but we underestimated the negative impactsfrom first two factors. Positive long-term outlook unchanged We remain positive on Sunway, as the progress of winning multiple iPhonecomponent projects stays on track, including 1) Lightning connectors (as the3rd supplier in 2018), 2) VCM cases, and dual cam supporting frame (as the keysupplier), and 3) market share gains in EMI shielding cases. Also, it could likelygain share in Samsung’s wireless charging module in 2018 too. Valuation and investment risks We trim 2017/18/19 EPS forecasts by 10%/4%/4% to price in 4Q17 non-op lossand softer outlook for Chinese clients, and trim TP from RMB52 to RMB50. Ournew TP is still based on 33.5x 2018 PER, or 0.8x PEG (in line with regionalpeers). Risks: market share loss, slow spec upgrade, and iPhone weakness.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-01-26 35.18 51.49 263.89% 41.18 17.06%
43.34 23.19%
详细
Initial setback, but remains the long-term winner of WPC trend We used to argue that Apple will change the design of wireless powercharging (WPC) module from “FPC-based" (in iPhone 8/X) to “copper coilbased"(in iPhone 9/XI), and Sunway could win 50% market share in the newdesign. Our latest supply chain check indicates the design change is takingplace, but Sunway might only take 10%-15% market share. However, we stillregard Sunway as a key beneficiary of the WPC trend. In 2018, it could gainhigher market share in Samsung WPC modules, and start initial shipments ofWPC TX (transmitter) modules to auto OEMs. Long term, it remains wellpositioned to become a primary supplier of iPhone WPC modules. Retain Buy. Update on WPC – some losses in iPhone but some gains in Samsung and auto We attribute Sunway’s miss (in not being the primary supplier for iPhone) tothe lack of experience in Apple’s WPC solution. The competitor, Luxshare, hasbeen supplying wireless charging pads for Apple Watch and other devicessince 2015. But, leveraging the expertise in coil-type solutions (NFC antenna)and WPC modules for Samsung Galaxy S/Note, we believe Sunway has a goodchance of growing its market share to 40%+ or 50% by 2019or 2020. On apositive note, we expect Sunway to grow its Samsung WPC market share from~15% in 2017to 25%-30% in 2018, after it recently set up a pilot runproduction line in Korea (to provide better on-the-ground service). In addition,Sunway might start to deliver WPC TX modules for European auto OEMs in2018(for their high-end vehicles). EMI shields, Lightning connectors, and VCM/dual cam frames remain on track The progress of multiple projects for iPhone remains unchanged. First, Sunwayhas already penetrated into lightning connectors, serving as the third supplier,and will start shipping in 2018. Second, Sunway expects a continually risingcontribution from camera-related mechanical parts (dual cam supportingframes and VCM shielding cases), given all three models could have dual camdesign in 2H18. Last, the company expects to win more EMI shielding caseslots, or gain higher shares in the current slots. Valuation and investment risks We trim 2017/18/19EPS forecasts by 2%/9%/10% (slower progress in iPhonewireless charging module business) and reduce TP from RMB60to RMB52.Our new TP is still based on 0.8x PEG (in line with regional peers), or 33.5x2018PER. Risks: market share loss, slow spec upgrade, and iPhone weakness.
科士达 电力设备行业 2018-01-16 17.15 19.42 -- 17.40 1.46%
17.40 1.46%
详细
High investors interest on promising industrial growth. Kstar is one of the largest uninterruptable power supply (UPS) brands in Chinaand is gaining QF investors' attention recently due to its (30% EPS CAGRin 2017-2020E) industrial growth on robust data center setup in China. Thecompany generates most of its UPS revenue from financial institutions (30-40%of UPS revenue), government agents, transportation infrastructure and IDC,which feature high entry barriers. Given its continued high-power UPS marketshare gain from international brands (Schneider), Kstar is confident of postingongoing market expansion from its current 35% level. Investors also like Kstar’ssolid balance sheet (net cash, positive FCF) and promising EV charging growth;reiterating Buy. Delivering 30% EPS CAGR in 2017-2020E on industrial growth (IDC UPS, EVcharging). Kstar expects a 30% EPS CAGR in 2017-2020E driven by strong high-power(20kVA+) on-line UPS growth on IDC proliferation in China and robust EVcharging demand. Propelled by its continued R&D investment in premium UPSand the support from the Chinese government, Kstar keeps gaining sharefrom international UPS brands (eg. Schneider, Eaton) in China. Managementanticipates its market share will expand from 15-16% now to 20-25% in two years,which supports a 20%+ UPS revenue growth in both 2018E and 2019E. Kstarhas also begun to ship its integrated UPS (combining self-made high-precisionair conditioner UPS battery into a cabinet) to IDC customers, which carries a 40%GPM, given its increased value-added. Kstar is confident of sustaining 35%+ GPM from UPS (despite rising raw materialcost) in the long-run due to continued product mix improvement (integrated UPS,large IDC). Promising inverter + booming EV demand. Kstar delivered a 100%+ YoY inverter revenue increase in 2017 due to its newpoverty reduction projects win from the government. Management indicatesthat the local government keeps building inverter stations in rural regions (eg. hills), which is viewed as a long-term electric infrastructure investment with 3-5years order visibility. Therefore, Kstar guides a 30-40% inverter revenue CAGR in2017-2020. Kstar also enjoys strong EV charging demand in China by leveragingits power efficient charging pile (featuring 96-98% conversion efficiency ratio vs. the industry average of 91-93%). The company’s EV charging revenue ramped to RMB150m in 2017 vs. RMB70m in 2016. Management is confident of posting100%+ YoY EV revenue growth in 2018 given the strong orders forecast fromkey customers. Kstar is also developing a vehicle carry charger with auto OEMs(Brilliance BMW, according to management), which will support its long-term EVgrowth. Valuation and risks. Our target price of RMB21 is still based on 30x one-year FW EPS, in line withthe Asian cloud computing peer average. Risks: slower EV/UPS demand andunfavorable FX.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-01-15 44.42 59.41 319.86% 45.68 2.84%
45.68 2.84%
详细
Connector BU (CBU) – multiple projects from iPhone Sunway highlights multiple growth drivers for CBUs, include: Penetrating into Lightning connectors: Sunway's Lightning connector hadbeen qualified by Apple, with shipments to start in 2018. Initially, it willserve as the third suppler (after Hon Hai and JAE), but Sunway is confidentit will gain shares in long run. Every new iPhone comes with threeLightning connectors in the box (one for power adapter cable, one for earpod cable, and one for audio adapter cable). Rising dual cam penetration on iPhone: Sunway expects all three newiPhones in 2H18will have dual cam (vs only two models with dual cam in2H17). Their camera related mechanical parts (dual cam supporting framesand VCM cases) will benefit from rising dual cam penetration Rising market shares in iPhone EMI shielding cases: Sunway got into thisbusiness since late 2015, and expects to win more EMI shielding case slotsin 2018or gain higher market shares in current slots.
科士达 电力设备行业 2018-01-09 17.10 19.42 -- 17.79 4.04%
17.79 4.04%
详细
Sustainable industrial growth is fuelling 2018-2020 momentum. Despite the recent UPS raw material price rally, we still expect Kstar to post a30% YoY EPS increase in 2017 on rush EV charging pile pull-in from stationoperators. In 2018-2020, Kstar expects to deliver 30% EPS CAGR due to: 1)integrated UPS data center share gains; 2) continued inverter strength fromgovernmental poverty reduction projects; and 3) 50%+ EV charging revenueincrease on new inland customers win (Heilongjiang provinces). We like Kstar’sreasonable valuation (20x 18E EPS), solid balance sheet (net cash, positiveFCF), and high exposure to industrial applications (EV, UPS). Retain Buy. 4Q17: accelerating EV charging momentum mitigates UPS material price hike. We had an update with Kstar on recent UPS headwinds resulting from the rawmaterial price rally (lead and copper price lifted ~10% in Oct-Nov). Kstar raisedits UPS pricing by 5-8% in November to pass the cost burden to its customers. The company expects some short-term UPS margin impact stemming from thesudden change but maintains its 2017 EPS guidance of 30%+ unchangedthanks to stronger EV charging momentum. Propelled by charging stationoperators’ rush orders in 4Q17, Kstar aims to generate RMB150m revenuefrom EV charging vs. RMB40m in 3Q17 and 4Q16. The company will likelysustain 40%+ GPM from EV charging business thanks to its higher powerconversion efficiency. Driven by EV and inverter strength, we expect Kstar topost 4Q17 EPS of RMB0.23 (+38% QoQ, +30% YoY), on revenue of RMB761m(+20% QoQ, +32% YoY). Integrated UPS + EV charging strength is boosting 2018 momentum. Kstar is confident of delivering 15-20% on-line UPS revenue CAGR in 2018-2020 driven by integrated UPS share gains from data center customers. Kstarstarted to offer integrated UPS solutions (combining on-line UPS, highprecision air conditioner and battery into the cabinet) in 2017 and has receivedstrong orders from data center customers. Management indicates thatintegrated UPS carries a GPM of 40%+ vs. conventional on-line UPS of 33-35%. Kstar also expects a 100%+ YoY EV charging pile revenue increase in2018 thanks to robust order forecasts from charging station operators. Thecompany also targets to bid for new orders from State Power in 2H18, whichcould post additional upside to its aggressive EV charging guidance. Valuation and risks. We keep our earnings estimates largely unchanged. We lift our target price toRMB21 from RMB18.6 as we roll over to one year FW EPS (still based on 30xP/E multiple or 1.0x PEG, in line with Asian peer average). Risks: weaker ChinaUPS demand, price competition, and unfavorable FX.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2017-10-30 49.67 59.41 28.18% 61.00 22.81%
61.00 22.81%
详细
More than a WPC (wireless power charging) play; more tricks up its sleeve Sunway’s quarterly results beat expectations again, driven by GPM expansion,market share gain and ASP increase. Until now, we were focused primarily oniPhone’s WPC module as the key 2018growth drivers, but Sunway’s guidancenow suggests a much greater range of new businesses will be important in thelonger term, including VCM supporting frame, Lightning connectors and MIMOantenna. This is a positive surprise and prompts significant forecast revisionsand a raised valuation. Sunway targets to grow its dollar content per iPhonefrom sub-USD3now to USD10+ by 2019; retaining Buy. Strong 3Q17results – record-high sales, GPM and EPS Sunway reported 3Q17EPS of CNY0.32(+68% YoY; +57% QoQ) and operatingprofit of CNY392m (+103% YoY; +149% QoQ) on sales of CNY1.05bn (+43%YoY; +47% QoQ). Sales and EPS beat our estimate by 10%/28%, propelled byASP hike and GPM expansion (up 13ppt QoQ to 45.9%, vs. DBe of 35%). Thefirm attributes ASP hike to spec upgrade or design changes on new iPhone’santenna/EMI shielding case and new Galaxy Note’s WPC/NFC/MST module. Itattributes GPM strength to spec upgrades, product mix, production yield, andsome one-off items (molding/toolings and NRE, in our view). Rosy 4Q17/2018outlook, driven by VCM frame, Lightning connector and WPC Sunway is positive on both top-line and margin outlook. The companyhighlighted 45.9% GPM in 3Q17is not recurring, but it targets to achieve 35%-40% in coming quarters (vs. historical pattern of ~30%). Sunway expects 4Q17sales to follow seasonal pattern (~20%-25% QoQ growth), and 2018sales totop CNY7bn (80%+ YoY growth), driven by new iPhone projects, and to alesser extent, rising WPC penetration on Android OEMs. Sunway expects togenerate CNY2.5bn-3.0bn incremental sales (vs. our earlier estimate ofCNY1.5bn) from iPhone in 2018, driven by:(1) winning 6VCM supportingframe projects (ASP of USD1.2) in 2018vs. only 2projects in 2017;(2)penetrating into Lightning connector as the third supplier (likely less than 15%order allocation);(3) penetrating into WPC module (ASP of USD3.0) for 2018new iPhone with a 50% order allocation); and(4) mild market share gain incurrent products (antenna and EMI shielding cases). Valuation and investment risks We raise 2017/18/19EPS forecasts by 12%/33%/53% (better GPM and multiplenew iPhone projects) and increase TP from RMB45to RMB60. Our new TP isstill based on 35x PER, or 0.8x PEG (in line with regional peers). Risks: orderallocation loss; spec upgrade slowdown; and iPhone weakness.
科士达 电力设备行业 2017-10-02 16.93 17.20 44.95% 18.86 11.40%
18.86 11.40%
详细
Local UPS king is gaining its power over international peers in China We visited Kstar's SZ UPS factory. The company is upbeat on its UPS marketshare expansion in both China (especially on 20kVA+ UPS) and overseas,thanks to its high precision and cost/performance products. We feelcomfortable with its 20%+ online UPS sales CAGR in 2017-2020E and 38-40%GPM thanks to favorable product mix change (integrated/higher power UPS).We also believe international UPS brands (Riello, Schneider, Emerson) willaccelerate their outsourcing to qualified ODMs like Voltronic, given risingcompetition from local kings. Voltronic and Kstar are our top picks in GreaterChina UPS fields; we reiterate our Buy ratings on both names. Upbeat 2017outlook driven by online UPS/inverter strength Kstar is upbeat on its 2017outlook and targets a 30%+ earnings CAGR in2017-2019E driven by online UPS and inverter strength. Propelled by continuedinverter order wins for the Chinese government’s poverty reduction projects inrural areas, Kstar expects a 100% YoY inverter revenue increase this year, withGPM ramping to 35-36% vs. 30-33% before. For UPS, Kstar expects continuedmarket share expansion in 20kVA+ orders thanks to its R&D strength andpromotion from the Chinese government. Kstar is also offering an integratedUPS solution (battery + UPS + high-precision air conditioner) to China’s IDC ,helping drive potential 20%+ online UPS revenue CAGR in the next three years. Kstar’s ongoing UPS gain implies rising pressure on international competitors Kstar expects its Chinese UPS market share to ramp up to 20-22% in twoyears’ time, vs. 15-16% currently. Management attributes the faster expansionto its take-off in 20kVA+ UPS. By leveraging its good relationship with localgovernment (in high-speed railway/governmental projects) and highcost/performance products (10-15% lower price vs. international competitors),Kstar continues to gain market share from international peers (e.g. Schneider,Emerson) in China. Besides the domestic market, Kstar is promoting its ownbrandproducts in emerging countries (e.g. South East Asia) by setting up 10branches overseas. The company believes its good customization capabilitiesin small-power UPS manufacturing will help it outperform international brandsin emerging countries (lack of power standard) going forward. Valuation and risks We raise our 2017EPS estimate by 12% to factor in stronger UPS/inverterdemand. We lift our TP to RMB18.6from RMB16.4as we roll over to one yearFW EPS vs. 2017E EPS before (still based on 30x 2017E P/E, or 1.0x PEG).Risks: weaker China UPS demand, price competition, and unfavorable FX.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2017-09-04 41.65 44.56 -- 53.76 29.08%
61.00 46.46%
详细
Ready to capture the rising WPC adoption in both iPhone and Android phones Sunway delivered solid 2Q17results and kept 2017EPS guidance (100%+ YoYgrowth) unchanged. Sunway is positive about the 2018outlook and identifiesthree key catalysts: 1) ASP increase for iPhone components; 2) market sharegain in Samsung three-in-one module; and 3) the rising adoption of wirelesspower charging (WPC) on both iPhone and Android camp. Maintain Buy rating. In-line 2Q17results: strong YoY growth continues Sunway reported 2Q17EPS of RMB0.2(+109% YoY; -7% QoQ) and operatingprofit of RMB156m (+54% YoY; -5% QoQ) on sales of RMB714m (+73% YoY; flat QoQ). Sales missed market expectations by ~10%, due to soft iPhonedemand and some project delays from Chinese clients. However, GPM rose3ppt QoQ to 32.7% (vs. market expectations for 31-32%), owing to improvedproduct yields. Propelled by a higher non-op gain (government subsidiary andequity investment income), EPS came in 4% above consensus. Positive 2H17/2018outlook: ASP increase, market share gain and WPC For iPhone antenna, due to a key design change (placing Wi-Fi/BT antenna ontop of a supporting frame of dual cam), ASP could increase to USD2.5+ (upfrom USD1.5for legacy iPhone antenna). For Samsung’s WPC/NFC/MSTmodule (ASP of USD4+), Sunway expects its market share to grow from 10-15% in 2016to 25-30% in 2017and further to 40-50% in 2018. To cope withthe strong order increase, Sunway is now evaluating if it should set up afactory in Korea (dedicated for Samsung) and could finalize this decision inSep. For iPhone’s WPC module, Sunway missed the 2017project, but see afair chance that it can be a qualified supplier of this module for new iPhones in2018. In the Android camp, Chinese OEMs (Huawei, Xiaomi, etc.) are keen onadopting WPC modules (ASP of USD2+) in their 2018flagship devices.Sunway believes that it will be the primary WPC module supplier for ChineseOEMs, given its first-mover advantage and solid relationship with them. Valuation and investment risks We raise our 2018/19EPS forecasts by 2% and increase our target price fromRMB40to RMB45. Our new target price is still based on 35x PER (but rollingover from 2017-18average EPS to 2018EPS) or 0.8x PEG, which is in line withregional peers. Risks: order allocation loss on i-devices; severe pricecompetition; and global smartphone weakness.
立讯精密 电子元器件行业 2017-08-28 20.90 10.79 -- 21.86 4.59%
28.08 34.35%
详细
Benefiting from wireline and wireless upgrades。 We continue to view Luxshare (along with Sunway) as the top Buy in our ChinaA-share coverage. It continues to deliver solid results and a positive outlook.Long term, it benefits from USB Type-C and fast-charging upgrades on mobiledevices, which demand high quality cable/connectors. Some people areconcerned that wireless power charging (WPC) will likely disrupt Luxshare’score business (connectors/cables). However, Luxshare will likely benefit. First,wireline and wireless charging should co-exist for long time (given the gap incharging efficiency). Second, WPC requires a charging cable/pad (TX) andreceiving module (RX), for which Luxshare has a high market share.。 2Q17beats expectation on strong GPM。 Luxshare reported 2Q17EPS of RMB0.12(+89% yoy; +26% qoq) on operatingprofits of RMB450m (+54% yoy; 24% qoq) on sales of TWD 4.4bn (+65% yoy; +12% qoq). EPS/operating profit beat our estimate by 14%/13%, with GPM up2.4ppt to 22.8% (vs our 20.5%), due to better product mix, capacity utilizationand stabilized ASP trend (on i-device components). In terms of segmentperformance, mobile device components led, reporting 156% yoy growth(market share gain + iPhone audio adaptor) in 1H17, followed by automotive(+29% yoy), telecom equipment (+23%) and PC (-9% yoy).。 Promising 2H17outlook, due to new iPhones and new components。 Luxshare expects 3Q17net profit to reach RMB339-RMB475m (up 21% to 70%yoy). We expect Luxshare could achieve the high-end of its guidance, as wesee multiple growth drivers ahead in 2H17, including: 1) a stronger new iPhonecycle (iPhone 8with OLED, 3D sensing, WPC), 2) the addition of a wirelesscharging module (RX) and three-in-one (Wi-Fi/GPS/BT) antenna for newiPhones, 3) new Apple Watch (series 3) launch (Luxshare supplies the WPCpad) and 4) a rising penetration of USB Type-C and fast charging technologieson Android devices.。 Valuation and investment risks。 We revise our 2017-18E EPS by 7%/12% to reflect dollar content increase forthe iPhone and market share gains in the telecom/auto. We raise our targetprice from RMB20to RMB24, based on 30x 2018E EPS (from 30x 2017-18Eaverage EPS). 30x PER represents 0.9x PEG (vs. regional peers of 0.8x PEG).We see the premium valuation as justifiable, given its improved sector growthoutlook and long-term market share gain potential. Downside risks include: slow USB type-C proliferation, price competition and forex fluctuations.。
欣旺达 电子元器件行业 2017-08-17 12.22 13.95 -- 13.63 11.54%
13.63 11.54%
详细
Good results and optimistic 2H17outlook on iPhone 8strength Sunwoda released better 2Q17operating results thanks to sequential handset(iPhone/China smartphone) battery share gains and initial penetration of theiPad supply chain. Management anticipates 30-35% YoY EPS growth in 2H17,propelled by iPhone 8strength. We expect Sunwoda’s iPhone allocation to riseto 35-45% in 2017-2018vs. 20% in 2016. Driven by continued ASP increasesstimulated by dual cell battery proliferation, we expect Sunwoda’s iPhonerevenue CAGR to ramp to 40%+ in 2017-2020. Sunwoda is one of our toppicks in the iPhone supply chain, featuring both an ASP and an order allocationgain story. We believe its continued iPad share gains and increase in organicEV orders should ensure its long-term growth outlook. Reiterating Buy. 2Q17operating results tracking ahead of our expectations Sunwoda reported 2Q17earnings of RMB109mn (+5% YoY, +50% QoQ) onrevenue of RMB3.3bn (+76% YoY, +47% QoQ). Operating profit of RMB166mn(+130% QoQ, 39% YoY) was 20% higher than our estimate thanks to stronghandset/iPad battery share gains at major customers (Huawei, OPPO andApple, in our view). PC battery margin dropped to 12% in 2Q17vs. 15-16%previously; management attributes the unfavorable result to lower yieldresulting from new iPad battery production. After the initial learning curve,Sunwoda expects PC GPM to return to normal levels starting 3Q17. Thecompany also anticipates continued iPad allocation gains from 10-15% in 2017to 30-40% in 2018, supporting a 100% PC revenue CAGR in 2017-2018. Major beneficiary of iPhone 8battery spec upgrade Sunwoda indicates that its development process for the iPhone 8battery(upgraded to dual cell vs. single cell in iPhone 7) is nearly complete.Management is confident of winning a 50% share in both iPhone 8and thenew 5.5” LCD iPhone in 2H17. Due to the meaningful iPhone 8spec upgrade,Sunwoda anticipates a 50-100% increase in battery ASP, with 15-16% GPM vs.its historical average of 13-14%. Sunwoda also expects some of its Androidhandset customers to follow Apple’s new battery design (dual cell) given risingpower consumption needs and safety concerns about single cell design. Thecompany believes the ASP hike/share expansion at almost all of its handsetcustomers will help it deliver a 30%+ earnings CAGR in 2017-2018.Valuation and risks We fine-tune our model but keep our forecasts largely unchanged. We baseour RMB14.5target price on 24x 2018E P/E, or 0.9x PEG (vs. China IT industryaverage of 25-30x P/E, or 1.2x PEG), which we believe is reachable given thestrong sector outlook. Risks: iPhone share loss, slower China EV demand,unfavorable FX.
欣旺达 电子元器件行业 2017-08-03 11.64 13.95 -- 12.56 7.90%
13.63 17.10%
详细
Strong IT growth + new EV catalyst = Buy Sunwoda is the leading handset/EV battery pack maker in China. We expectthe company to deliver a 26%+ EPS CAGR in 2017-2020, stimulated by: 1)continued iPhone share gain/ASP hike; 2) initial taking off in iPad and Macbookbatteries; and 3) strong EV momentum propelled by accelerating EVpenetration in China. We also anticipate Sunwoda will deliver ongoing batterymargin expansion, given its superior quality stemming from verticallyintegrated production (in-house BMS/cell supply). Initiating with Buy rating. Strong i-device battery share gain is fueling accelerating growth ahead Sunwoda is the major battery supplier to both Apple and leading Chinasmartphone brands. We expect it to deliver 40%+ iPhone battery sales CAGRin 2017-2020thanks to 1) continued share gain (allocation lift to 30-45% vs.only 20% in 2016), and 2) ASP hike stemming from iPhone 8spec upgrades(changed to dual cell design with 50%+ price increase). We also anticipateongoing handset margin growth (15%+ vs. industry average of 8-10%)propelled by rising in-house battery cell (rising from 3% now to 40-60% in2018-2019E) and BMS supply for Android customers, and enhanced factoryautomation. Sunwoda also taps into iPad battery supply starting 2017andaims to win Macbook orders in 2018. Persistent Apple orders gains and non-Apple PC customer wins (Dell, HP) should stimulate 100%+ PC battery revenuegrowth in 2017-2018. EV batteries fuelling long-term momentum Sunwoda is an early mover in EV battery pack assembly and is establishingsolid partnerships with domestic auto OEMs (Wuling Motors, BAIC Motor,Dongfeng Motor, Geely). The company is expanding its EV battery cell capacityand aims to lift its in-house battery cell supply ratio. We expect Sunwoda todeliver a 35%+ EV profit CAGR in 2017-2020, propelled by acceleratingindustry growth (DB expects China EV market to expand at a 30% CAGR) andpersistent new customer gain.s given higher manufacturing flexibility overpeers (given its commitment in in-house battery cell and BMS development). Valuation and risks We base our RMB14.5target price on 24x 2018E P/E, or 0.9x PEG (vs. China ITindustry average of 25-30x P/E, or 1.2x PEG), which we believe is reachablegiven the strong sector outlook. Risks: iPhone share loss, slower China EVdemand, unfavorable FX.
科士达 电力设备行业 2017-07-20 15.46 15.17 27.81% 17.12 10.74%
18.88 22.12%
详细
Ensured China UPS demand which bodes well for local king and ODM. Kstar reported stronger 2Q17 operating results thanks to 1) organic integratedUPS demand in China, and 2) faster UPS market share gain in emergingcountries. The company is confident of delivering 20%+ earnings CAGR in2017-2019E propelled by continued UPS strength and PRC governmentsupport. The positive statement echoes our thesis that leading local UPSbrands is gaining market share from international brands (Emerson, APC) inChina (especially in 10kVA+ above segment). We also see rising outsourcingrate from international brands to qualified ODM (eg. Voltronic, Buy, TWD525)as a cost effective way to compete local kings. We believe Kstar (leading localbrand) and Voltronic (leading ODM) will both benefit from the trend, reiteratingBuy rating on both names. Recovered 2Q17 momentum stemming from faster overseas expansion. Kstar released positive 2Q17 preliminary results. 2Q17 earnings of RMB99mn(+98% QoQ, +52% YoY) on revenue of RMB677mn (+70% QoQ, +49% YoY). Operating profit of RMB106mn (+78% QoQ, +62% YoY) was 40% higher thanour and consensus estimates. Management attributes the strength to strongeroverseas UPS sales. Kstar is promoting its own brand UPS in emerging regionsproactively since 2016. By leveraging its high cost/performance product, thecompany is gaining market share in in Africa and South East Asia aggressively. Integrated UPS strength + promotion from government. Kstar enjoys strong integrated UPS growth driven by robust IDC setup inChina. The company indicates that 10+kVA UPS may claim for 60-70% of totalon-line UPS sales in 2017 vs. 45% in 2016. Kstar also received governmentsubsidies and tax benefit in 2Q17 (close to RMB10-15mn) for their 20-50kVAon-line UPS development. As the largest PRC UPS brands, which is gainingmarket share aggressively in domestic market, Kstar is also benefiting fromgovernment’s promotion of localized UPS manufacturing. Valuation and risks. Our target price of RMB16.4 is still based on 30x 2017E P/E, or 1.0x PEG (vs. regional peers’ 20-30x P/E, or 1.0x PEG). Risk: weaker-than-expected ChinaUPS demand, price competition, weaker EV proliferation.
科士达 电力设备行业 2017-05-02 13.42 15.17 27.81% 14.15 5.44%
16.20 20.72%
详细
EPS revision on stock dividend. Valuation and risks To factor in a 30% stock dividend, we revise our 2017/2018E EPS by 30% for each. Accordingly, we trim our target price from RMB24 to RMB16.4. Valuation and risks. Our new target price is still based on 30x 2017E P/E, or 1.0x PEG (vs. regional peers’ 20-30x P/E, or 1.0x PEG). Risk: weaker-than-expected China UPS demand, price competition, weaker EV proliferation.
立讯精密 电子元器件行业 2017-05-02 18.08 8.97 -- 29.95 10.11%
21.68 19.91%
详细
New component and market share gain to drive long-term growth. Strong 1Q17 results: 51% net profit growth on 88% top-line growth Luxshare’s 2016 results were in line (see Figure 2), but 1Q17 EPS beat our estimate by 10%, on strong top-line growth. 2Q17 guidance came in above expectation and the 2017 outlook looks promising, driven by dollar content increase for new iPhones (wireless charging module, stereo speaker/receiver, and Wi-Fi/BT/GPS antenna) as well as rising USB Type-C penetration (on PC, Android phones and headphones/earpods). Retaining Buy rating. Strong 1Q17 results: 51% net profit growth on 88% top-line growth. Luxshare reported 1Q17 net profit of RMB301mn (+51% YoY; -37% QoQ) and operating profit of RMB364mn (+62% YoY; -28% QoQ) on sales of RMB3.9bn (+88% YoY; -26% QoQ). Sales and net profit came in 14% and 10% above our estimates. The firm attributes the strength to dollar content increase for the iPhone (audio/Lightning adaptor), strong Type-C connector/cable orders from PC and Android clients, and market share gain in the automotive/telecom space. GPM increased 0.8ppt QoQ to 20.4%, thanks to improved production yield in audio/Lightning adaptor. Strong 2Q17 guidance and positive 2017 outlook. Luxshare expects 2Q17 net profit to reach RMB300mn-RMB420mn (up 51% to 111% YoY) on sales of RMN4.0bn+, and believes GPM will continue to improve, on the back of rising capacity utilization, and better product mix (less audio/Lightning adapter). For 2017, Luxshare expects to post 30%+ sales growth, driven by: 1) more headphones/earpods adopting Type-C or Lightning cables, 2) USB Type-C becoming a standard spec for high-end Android phones (with rising adoption in mid-end devices), 3) market share gain in the automotive/ telecom connector business, and 4) new iPhone components - wireless charging modules (~50% market share), speaker box/receivers (~10% market share), and Wi-Fi/BT/GPS antenna (less than 10% market share). Valuation and risks. We revise our 2017-18 EPS by 8%/12% to reflect dollar content increase for the iPhone and market share gains in the telecom/auto business. We thus revise up our TP from RMB26.5 to RMB30, based on 30x 2017-18 average EPS (from 32x 2017 EPS previously due to valuation rollover), or 1.0x PEG (vs. regional peers of 0.8x PEG). We see the premium valuation (vs. regional peers) as justifiable, given its improved sector growth outlook and long-term market share gain potential. Downside risks include slow USB type-C proliferation, price competition, and forex fluctuations.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2017-05-02 35.72 39.56 -- 37.60 5.15%
41.50 16.18%
详细
Upbeat 2017 outlook on WPC antenna strength InSunway reported in-line 1Q17 operating results and reiterated positive 2017 guidance, thanks to Samsung WPC antenna strength and persistent i-device antenna order allocation gain. Propelled by the favorable product mix change, Sunway is confident on posting continued margin growth from 2Q17 onward, and expects a 100%+ EPS increase in 2Q17. Sunway is our top pick in China smartphone supply chain, with ample margin growth potential ahead. We are reiterating our Buy rating. In-line 1Q17 results Sunway reported 1Q17 earnings of RMB204mn (+10% QoQ, +25% YoY), on revenues of RMB714mn (-21% QoQ, +103% YoY). Operating profit came in at RMB161mn (+75% QoQ, +98% YoY), roughly in line with our/consensus estimates. GPM of 29% was lower vs. our and market expectation of ~35%. Management attributed the weakness to inventory digestion from some Android customers and initial lower yield for a major Android (Samsung, in our view) client’s new smartphone models. However, Sunway is confident on delivering meaningful margin expansion starting 2Q17, stimulated by favorable product mix change (higher exposure to high-end wireless power charging (WPC) antenna) and enhanced operating efficiency. Share gain in iOS/Android smartphone camps fuels momentum ahead Sunway reiterated its 2017 guidance for earnings to double on a YoY basis. The company attributed the strength to: 1) continued market share gain and enriched component offering (EMI shielding case/WPC antenna) from key android customers; 2) persistent share gain in new iPad/Macbook (20-30% in 2017 vs. 5-10% in 2016); and 3) persistent new customer wins (e.g., Nokia smartphone/featurephone antenna and mechanical parts, Gionee/Huawei acoustics). Sunway also anticipates ongoing margin expansion ahead, driven by accelerating WPC antenna proliferation (Samsung’s widening WPC adoption from premium Galaxy S/Note series to mid-end A series), which carries 35-40% GPM over Wi-Fi antenna of ~30% Valuation and investment risks We raise 2017E EPS forecasts by 6% to factor its share gain (in Samsung and Chinese OEMs). We raise our TP to RMB40 (based on 1x PEG, or 35x forward PER as we expect Sunway to post an double-digit profit growth in the coming years, driven by market share gain, rising contribution from EMI shields and acoustics, & margin expansion, plus operating leverage. Risks: order allocation loss on i-devices; severe price competition, and global smartphone weakness.
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