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海康威视 电子元器件行业 2018-07-26 36.93 35.74 41.15% 36.75 -0.49%
36.75 -0.49%
详细
Near-term risks should have been priced in In-line 2Q18 results Hikvision reported in-line 2Q18 results and expected 1-3Q18 profit to grow in the same range of 15-35% YoY. Despite a continued negative impact from the Chinese government’s deleveraging policy and political/economic uncertainties in overseas markets, we believe Hikvision’s short-term softness is temporary and order momentum could pick up again, with uncertainties easing over time and a healthier industry dynamic in the domestic market. Maintaining Buy. In-line 2Q18 results Hikvision reported 2Q18 EPS and operating profit of CNY0.25 (+28% QoQ, +29% YoY) and CNY2.0bn (-3% QoQ, +1%YoY), on sales of CNY11.5bn (+23% QoQ, +22% YoY). Sales/gross profit were broadly in line with DB/consensus estimates, as the market has already factored in the political impacts. However, expenses rose in 2Q18, due to 1) rising recruitment fees for sales people and R&D engineers, 2) higher exhibition fees and 3) one-time expense for the third phase of industrial park opening in Hangzhou. With help from a non-op gain, net profit slightly missed DBe by 4%. Slower 1-3Q18 guidance but long-term outlook remains intact Hikvision expects 1-3Q18 net profit to rise 15%-35% YoY, implying 3Q18 net profit of CNY2.9bn-4.2bn, or a midpoint of CNY3.5bn (+24% YoY). Although a solid figure, this guidance trails Bloomberg consensus (CNY3.8bn) by 8%, due to 1) the economic/political uncertainties in overseas markets, 2) the continual impact of the Chinese government’s deleveraging policy, and 3) the small public security projects being squeezed by the nationwide projects in the short run. Aside from this, Hikvision remains positive on its 2018 and long-term outlook, noting: 1) the innovation business posted 80% YoY growth in 1H18 and the high growth will continue; 2) a rising contribution from the Sky Net/Sharp Eyes projects as Hikvision is the key beneficiary of the Chinese government’s efforts to build a nationwide security surveillance system; and 3) its rising AI system integration can drive long-term ASP upside.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-02-05 34.74 49.11 172.83% 41.45 19.31%
43.34 24.76%
详细
2017 net profit up 78%-88%, but trailing the expectation of ~100% growth… Sunway released 2017 result preview and expects net profit to reachRMB950mn to RMB1bn (up 79% YoY to 88% YoY). Despite being a stellarresult, this figure missed DBe/market expectation (of 100% growth) by ~10%. …due to order/ASP cuts from some clients, forex, finance costs and others Sunway attribute the miss to 1) order cuts and ASP erosion from some clients(we expect to Oppo, Vivo and tier-two Chinese OEMs) leading to slower toplinegrowth and margin decline in 4Q17, 2) the surge in forex loss (due to RMBappreciation against USD), and interest expense (to finance the Changzhouplants), and 3) RMB100mn+ YoY increase in opex (due to aggressive businessexpansion). Our prior Sunway earnings model had properly factored in theincrease in opex (the third factor), but we underestimated the negative impactsfrom first two factors. Positive long-term outlook unchanged We remain positive on Sunway, as the progress of winning multiple iPhonecomponent projects stays on track, including 1) Lightning connectors (as the3rd supplier in 2018), 2) VCM cases, and dual cam supporting frame (as the keysupplier), and 3) market share gains in EMI shielding cases. Also, it could likelygain share in Samsung’s wireless charging module in 2018 too. Valuation and investment risks We trim 2017/18/19 EPS forecasts by 10%/4%/4% to price in 4Q17 non-op lossand softer outlook for Chinese clients, and trim TP from RMB52 to RMB50. Ournew TP is still based on 33.5x 2018 PER, or 0.8x PEG (in line with regionalpeers). Risks: market share loss, slow spec upgrade, and iPhone weakness.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-01-26 35.18 51.08 183.78% 41.18 17.06%
43.34 23.19%
详细
Initial setback, but remains the long-term winner of WPC trend We used to argue that Apple will change the design of wireless powercharging (WPC) module from “FPC-based" (in iPhone 8/X) to “copper coilbased"(in iPhone 9/XI), and Sunway could win 50% market share in the newdesign. Our latest supply chain check indicates the design change is takingplace, but Sunway might only take 10%-15% market share. However, we stillregard Sunway as a key beneficiary of the WPC trend. In 2018, it could gainhigher market share in Samsung WPC modules, and start initial shipments ofWPC TX (transmitter) modules to auto OEMs. Long term, it remains wellpositioned to become a primary supplier of iPhone WPC modules. Retain Buy. Update on WPC – some losses in iPhone but some gains in Samsung and auto We attribute Sunway’s miss (in not being the primary supplier for iPhone) tothe lack of experience in Apple’s WPC solution. The competitor, Luxshare, hasbeen supplying wireless charging pads for Apple Watch and other devicessince 2015. But, leveraging the expertise in coil-type solutions (NFC antenna)and WPC modules for Samsung Galaxy S/Note, we believe Sunway has a goodchance of growing its market share to 40%+ or 50% by 2019or 2020. On apositive note, we expect Sunway to grow its Samsung WPC market share from~15% in 2017to 25%-30% in 2018, after it recently set up a pilot runproduction line in Korea (to provide better on-the-ground service). In addition,Sunway might start to deliver WPC TX modules for European auto OEMs in2018(for their high-end vehicles). EMI shields, Lightning connectors, and VCM/dual cam frames remain on track The progress of multiple projects for iPhone remains unchanged. First, Sunwayhas already penetrated into lightning connectors, serving as the third supplier,and will start shipping in 2018. Second, Sunway expects a continually risingcontribution from camera-related mechanical parts (dual cam supportingframes and VCM shielding cases), given all three models could have dual camdesign in 2H18. Last, the company expects to win more EMI shielding caseslots, or gain higher shares in the current slots. Valuation and investment risks We trim 2017/18/19EPS forecasts by 2%/9%/10% (slower progress in iPhonewireless charging module business) and reduce TP from RMB60to RMB52.Our new TP is still based on 0.8x PEG (in line with regional peers), or 33.5x2018PER. Risks: market share loss, slow spec upgrade, and iPhone weakness.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2018-01-15 44.42 58.94 227.44% 45.68 2.84%
45.68 2.84%
详细
Connector BU (CBU) – multiple projects from iPhone Sunway highlights multiple growth drivers for CBUs, include: Penetrating into Lightning connectors: Sunway's Lightning connector hadbeen qualified by Apple, with shipments to start in 2018. Initially, it willserve as the third suppler (after Hon Hai and JAE), but Sunway is confidentit will gain shares in long run. Every new iPhone comes with threeLightning connectors in the box (one for power adapter cable, one for earpod cable, and one for audio adapter cable). Rising dual cam penetration on iPhone: Sunway expects all three newiPhones in 2H18will have dual cam (vs only two models with dual cam in2H17). Their camera related mechanical parts (dual cam supporting framesand VCM cases) will benefit from rising dual cam penetration Rising market shares in iPhone EMI shielding cases: Sunway got into thisbusiness since late 2015, and expects to win more EMI shielding case slotsin 2018or gain higher market shares in current slots.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2018-01-15 42.12 37.04 46.29% 43.79 3.96%
44.59 5.86%
详细
Maintain BUY and TP of CNY43. Hikvision attended DB's Access China Conference 2018 in Beijing on 10January 2018. We summarize the key takeaways in this note. Maintain BUY. Solid growth outlook with management guidance of 20-30% growth. Management maintained its prior guidance of 20-30% sales growth each yearin 2017/2018.The growth will stem from both the domestic and overseasmarket as the company continues to expand market share. Hikvision notedthat the rising network transmission bandwidth with the lowering price fordata transmission will continue enabling product upgrades with higherresolution and better image quality for the recorded image/video. Currently, weforecast Hikvision's revenue to grow 28%/27% in 2017/2018, respectively. Long term GPM target of over 40%; DB expect margin stabilization. Following years of margin decline, 1-3Q2017 GPM has reversed the trend. Management attributed to a) improving product mix with less contributionfrom low margin HDD sales, b) earlier payment discount to its suppliers, c)higher margin associated with AI products. We expect 4Q17 GPM to trenddown, as with historical pattern, given the rise in the low margin constructionrevenue before the year ends. Compared to management's long term grossmargin target of over 40%, we expect Hikvision's GPM to stabilize at 44% in2018/19, driven by rising contribution from solution business and AI products. AI: focus on applications with its "AI cloud" framework. Much discussions focused on Hikvision's exposure to AI and the competitivelandscape. The company believes the high price tag for AI-equipped productsremains the hurdle for a widespread adoption. In addition to algorithm,Hikvision focuses on the AI applications with a complete product line fromfront-end camera to back-end recorders/servers. The management's strategy inits "AI cloud" targets edge cloud to filter unnecessary data and provide fasterresponse given amount of image/video that each camera collects and the loadon the data transmission network. Currently, the AI equipment were sold in acomplete solution for mostly the public safety and transportation projectswithin the domestic China, to increase efficiency. On its AI exposure in theoverseas market, Hikvision won a smart city project in Singapore in 2017. Weestimate that AI products only has single digit contribution to Hikvision but therising adoption of AI will be both revenue and profit accretive. Valuation and risks. Hikvision remains one of the top buys in the Asian hardware space. Wereiterate our BUY rating with target price of CNY43, which is based on 30xFY2018E PE, supported by 34% profit CAGR in 2017-2019, and 36% averageROE. Risks: market share loss, weak demand in industry project orders.
科士达 电力设备行业 2018-01-09 17.10 18.86 16.85% 17.79 4.04%
17.79 4.04%
详细
Sustainable industrial growth is fuelling 2018-2020 momentum. Despite the recent UPS raw material price rally, we still expect Kstar to post a30% YoY EPS increase in 2017 on rush EV charging pile pull-in from stationoperators. In 2018-2020, Kstar expects to deliver 30% EPS CAGR due to: 1)integrated UPS data center share gains; 2) continued inverter strength fromgovernmental poverty reduction projects; and 3) 50%+ EV charging revenueincrease on new inland customers win (Heilongjiang provinces). We like Kstar’sreasonable valuation (20x 18E EPS), solid balance sheet (net cash, positiveFCF), and high exposure to industrial applications (EV, UPS). Retain Buy. 4Q17: accelerating EV charging momentum mitigates UPS material price hike. We had an update with Kstar on recent UPS headwinds resulting from the rawmaterial price rally (lead and copper price lifted ~10% in Oct-Nov). Kstar raisedits UPS pricing by 5-8% in November to pass the cost burden to its customers. The company expects some short-term UPS margin impact stemming from thesudden change but maintains its 2017 EPS guidance of 30%+ unchangedthanks to stronger EV charging momentum. Propelled by charging stationoperators’ rush orders in 4Q17, Kstar aims to generate RMB150m revenuefrom EV charging vs. RMB40m in 3Q17 and 4Q16. The company will likelysustain 40%+ GPM from EV charging business thanks to its higher powerconversion efficiency. Driven by EV and inverter strength, we expect Kstar topost 4Q17 EPS of RMB0.23 (+38% QoQ, +30% YoY), on revenue of RMB761m(+20% QoQ, +32% YoY). Integrated UPS + EV charging strength is boosting 2018 momentum. Kstar is confident of delivering 15-20% on-line UPS revenue CAGR in 2018-2020 driven by integrated UPS share gains from data center customers. Kstarstarted to offer integrated UPS solutions (combining on-line UPS, highprecision air conditioner and battery into the cabinet) in 2017 and has receivedstrong orders from data center customers. Management indicates thatintegrated UPS carries a GPM of 40%+ vs. conventional on-line UPS of 33-35%. Kstar also expects a 100%+ YoY EV charging pile revenue increase in2018 thanks to robust order forecasts from charging station operators. Thecompany also targets to bid for new orders from State Power in 2H18, whichcould post additional upside to its aggressive EV charging guidance. Valuation and risks. We keep our earnings estimates largely unchanged. We lift our target price toRMB21 from RMB18.6 as we roll over to one year FW EPS (still based on 30xP/E multiple or 1.0x PEG, in line with Asian peer average). Risks: weaker ChinaUPS demand, price competition, and unfavorable FX.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-11-03 38.62 37.04 42.91% 43.66 13.05%
43.79 13.39%
详细
Buy rating with new target price of CNY43 We reiterate our Buy rating on Hikvision and raise our target price to CNY43from CNY34.5, as we raise our earnings forecast and lift the target multiple to30x from 25x, driven by our expectation of accelerated earnings growth due tomargin expansion. Better-than-expected margin expansion and outlook We have been highlighting Hikvision’s margin expansion through a risingsolution business and management efforts. 3Q17GPM of 46% is a high since2015, above DB/consensus expectations of 42%. As Hikvision continues topursue solution business opportunities in overseas markets and its domesticmarket continues to improve, we expect the company to sustain the 2017margin expansion into 2018/2019at 44%. AI strategy focuses on edge cloud computing Hikvision recently announced its “AI cloud” framework at the 16th publicsafety expo in Shenzhen. Its strategy focuses on edge cloud for videosurveillance applications, which allows faster responses and the filtering ofunnecessary data from video/images captured by millions of camerasconstantly. In addition to domestic transportation and security projects,Hikvision has won a smart city project in Singapore of over USD10mn. Theincreasing adoption of AI presents upside risks to revenue and margins. Positive progress in the innovation business In addition to AI, the innovation business is a growth catalyst at Hikvision. Thelargest contributor is Ezviz, whose subscribers exceed 20mn. In addition to aconsumer client base, it has business clients, such as retail chain and propertymanagement companies, which utilize the Ezviz cloud to track client traffic andmonitor premises. Its robot business has landed orders for three types ofrobots for JD.com’s automated warehouse in Shanghai. We expect theinnovation business to grow 142%/83% in 2017/2018. Valuation and risks Hikvision’s share price has appreciated over 150%+ YTD (vs. ShenzhenComposite index: 2%). We expect it to continue re-rating, given acceleratedprofit growth from AI exposure, rising innovation contributions, and marginimprovement. Our new target price of CNY43is based on 30x FY2018E PE,which lies toward the top end of the company’s historical trading range, andwould be supported by an accelerated 34% profit CAGR in 2017-2019E,compared to a 26% profit CAGR in 2014-2016. Risks: market share loss, weakdemand in industry project orders (see page 8-10, for details).
大华股份 电子元器件行业 2017-11-02 27.98 24.92 50.28% 30.69 9.69%
30.69 9.69%
详细
3Q17EPS of RMB0.16 Dahua reported 3Q17EPS of RMB0.16, which was 12% below the DB forecastof RMB0.18on rising selling expenses and higher finance costs. We maintainour Buy rating and TP of CNY27.5. Higher selling expense and non-op loss impact on 3Q17profit Dahua’s 3Q17revenue and gross profits were in line with the DB forecast, but3Q17operating profits were 9% below, at RMB359m, -49% QoQ/+72% YoY,mainly due to a higher selling expense ratio, at 15%. Moreover, the non-opprofits were below our forecast, as the recurring income from the VAT taxreturn was offset by a surge in finance expense from forex losses. While 3Q17pre-tax income was 24% below the DB forecast, on rising expenses and lowernon-op, Dahua incurred a tax credit of RMB28m, as with the RMB32m taxcredit in 3Q16. 3Q17net income was 12% below the DB forecast at CNY461m,-34% QoQ/+28% YoY, for EPS of CNY0.16. For 1-3Q17, net profit registeredCNY1.4bn, within management guidance of CNY1.3-1.5bn 2017full-year guidance on profit growth at 20-40% Management gave 2017full-year guidance of annual profit to grow 20-40%YoY, with the range of net profit at CNY2.2bn-2.6bn. We note that the newguidance is lower than the raised 25-45% guidance for 1-3Q17profit growthgiven out in August 2017. The lower guidance could potentially be a reflectionof the lower non-op income. As we enter the peak season in 4Q17, we expectrevenue to grow 26% QoQ/59% YoY, while operating margin recovers fromscale. Our 2017full-year profit forecast of RMB2.5bn, for EPS of RMB0.87, isat the high-end of management’s guidance. Positive 2018outlook with accelerated profit growth We expect the strong revenue growth momentum to sustain into 2018as thecompany continues to expand market share with rising total solution projects.In addition, the AI applications and future PPP projects are catalysts to driveDahua’s growth outlook. In particular, Dahua has indicated participation inAlibaba’s “City Brain” project in providing infrastructures such as front-endsensors, back-end storage and access platforms. We expect OPM to sustain atthe 2017level of 12%, with a rising solution contribution and increasing scale. Valuation and risks As the 3Q17miss was mainly due to the rising selling expense and lower nonopincome, we lower our 2017earnings by 7% but leave our 2018forecastunchanged. We remain positive on Dahua and our TP is unchanged atCNY27.5, based on 22x FY2018E PE, supported by accelerated profit growth of38%/43% in 2017/2018and ROE expansions. Risks: market share loss andweak orders from solution projects.
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2017-10-30 49.67 58.94 28.10% 61.00 22.81%
61.00 22.81%
详细
More than a WPC (wireless power charging) play; more tricks up its sleeve Sunway’s quarterly results beat expectations again, driven by GPM expansion,market share gain and ASP increase. Until now, we were focused primarily oniPhone’s WPC module as the key 2018growth drivers, but Sunway’s guidancenow suggests a much greater range of new businesses will be important in thelonger term, including VCM supporting frame, Lightning connectors and MIMOantenna. This is a positive surprise and prompts significant forecast revisionsand a raised valuation. Sunway targets to grow its dollar content per iPhonefrom sub-USD3now to USD10+ by 2019; retaining Buy. Strong 3Q17results – record-high sales, GPM and EPS Sunway reported 3Q17EPS of CNY0.32(+68% YoY; +57% QoQ) and operatingprofit of CNY392m (+103% YoY; +149% QoQ) on sales of CNY1.05bn (+43%YoY; +47% QoQ). Sales and EPS beat our estimate by 10%/28%, propelled byASP hike and GPM expansion (up 13ppt QoQ to 45.9%, vs. DBe of 35%). Thefirm attributes ASP hike to spec upgrade or design changes on new iPhone’santenna/EMI shielding case and new Galaxy Note’s WPC/NFC/MST module. Itattributes GPM strength to spec upgrades, product mix, production yield, andsome one-off items (molding/toolings and NRE, in our view). Rosy 4Q17/2018outlook, driven by VCM frame, Lightning connector and WPC Sunway is positive on both top-line and margin outlook. The companyhighlighted 45.9% GPM in 3Q17is not recurring, but it targets to achieve 35%-40% in coming quarters (vs. historical pattern of ~30%). Sunway expects 4Q17sales to follow seasonal pattern (~20%-25% QoQ growth), and 2018sales totop CNY7bn (80%+ YoY growth), driven by new iPhone projects, and to alesser extent, rising WPC penetration on Android OEMs. Sunway expects togenerate CNY2.5bn-3.0bn incremental sales (vs. our earlier estimate ofCNY1.5bn) from iPhone in 2018, driven by:(1) winning 6VCM supportingframe projects (ASP of USD1.2) in 2018vs. only 2projects in 2017;(2)penetrating into Lightning connector as the third supplier (likely less than 15%order allocation);(3) penetrating into WPC module (ASP of USD3.0) for 2018new iPhone with a 50% order allocation); and(4) mild market share gain incurrent products (antenna and EMI shielding cases). Valuation and investment risks We raise 2017/18/19EPS forecasts by 12%/33%/53% (better GPM and multiplenew iPhone projects) and increase TP from RMB45to RMB60. Our new TP isstill based on 35x PER, or 0.8x PEG (in line with regional peers). Risks: orderallocation loss; spec upgrade slowdown; and iPhone weakness.
科士达 电力设备行业 2017-10-02 16.93 16.70 44.95% 18.86 11.40%
18.86 11.40%
详细
Local UPS king is gaining its power over international peers in China We visited Kstar's SZ UPS factory. The company is upbeat on its UPS marketshare expansion in both China (especially on 20kVA+ UPS) and overseas,thanks to its high precision and cost/performance products. We feelcomfortable with its 20%+ online UPS sales CAGR in 2017-2020E and 38-40%GPM thanks to favorable product mix change (integrated/higher power UPS).We also believe international UPS brands (Riello, Schneider, Emerson) willaccelerate their outsourcing to qualified ODMs like Voltronic, given risingcompetition from local kings. Voltronic and Kstar are our top picks in GreaterChina UPS fields; we reiterate our Buy ratings on both names. Upbeat 2017outlook driven by online UPS/inverter strength Kstar is upbeat on its 2017outlook and targets a 30%+ earnings CAGR in2017-2019E driven by online UPS and inverter strength. Propelled by continuedinverter order wins for the Chinese government’s poverty reduction projects inrural areas, Kstar expects a 100% YoY inverter revenue increase this year, withGPM ramping to 35-36% vs. 30-33% before. For UPS, Kstar expects continuedmarket share expansion in 20kVA+ orders thanks to its R&D strength andpromotion from the Chinese government. Kstar is also offering an integratedUPS solution (battery + UPS + high-precision air conditioner) to China’s IDC ,helping drive potential 20%+ online UPS revenue CAGR in the next three years. Kstar’s ongoing UPS gain implies rising pressure on international competitors Kstar expects its Chinese UPS market share to ramp up to 20-22% in twoyears’ time, vs. 15-16% currently. Management attributes the faster expansionto its take-off in 20kVA+ UPS. By leveraging its good relationship with localgovernment (in high-speed railway/governmental projects) and highcost/performance products (10-15% lower price vs. international competitors),Kstar continues to gain market share from international peers (e.g. Schneider,Emerson) in China. Besides the domestic market, Kstar is promoting its ownbrandproducts in emerging countries (e.g. South East Asia) by setting up 10branches overseas. The company believes its good customization capabilitiesin small-power UPS manufacturing will help it outperform international brandsin emerging countries (lack of power standard) going forward. Valuation and risks We raise our 2017EPS estimate by 12% to factor in stronger UPS/inverterdemand. We lift our TP to RMB18.6from RMB16.4as we roll over to one yearFW EPS vs. 2017E EPS before (still based on 30x 2017E P/E, or 1.0x PEG).Risks: weaker China UPS demand, price competition, and unfavorable FX.
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2017-09-27 38.62 29.72 14.67% 43.66 13.05%
43.79 13.39%
详细
RMB10bn investment for the next four years。 Hikvision’s board of directors has decided to invest RMB10bn capex to build 4R&D centers and 2industrial bases in five cities in the next four years. Wemaintain BUY rating on Hikvision.。 Building new R&D centers and production bases。 The four R&D centers will cost RMB6.5bn and be deployed in the cities ofXi’an, Wuhan, Chengdu and Hangzhou. The construction period for eachproject will take ~ 40months and be completed during 2H21-1H22. Combinedwith Hangzhou R&D center, its R&D network will cover the mid-westernprovinces in China and utilize the local science and education talents to furtherstrengthen its R&D team. The two production bases will cost RMB4bn and bedeployed in Chongqing and Wuhan. The completion of production bases willhelp Hikvision leverage local labor resources and increase capacity.。 Focus on the R&D talents and increasing capacity。 We expect these R&D centers to strengthen its core competence in videosurveillance and develop the innovation businesses (such as industryautomation and automotive applications) with new applications. The newproduction bases will increase capacity and vertical integration capability asthe company grows in size. We expect upside to our current capex forecastbut should be manageable given Hikvision’s 2017E profits of RMB9.5bn andnet cash position of RMB9.2bn at the end of 2Q17.。 Valuation and risks。 We believe the investment plan is in sync’s management’s strategy in securingits leadership in the video surveillance sector while diversifying into newgrowth segments. Our TP of RMB34.5is based on 25x 2018E EPS, which issupported by 34%/36% ROE and 28%/33% earnings growth in 2017/2018,respectively. Risks: market share loss and weak demand.。
信维通信 通信及通信设备 2017-09-04 41.65 44.20 -- 53.76 29.08%
61.00 46.46%
详细
Ready to capture the rising WPC adoption in both iPhone and Android phones Sunway delivered solid 2Q17results and kept 2017EPS guidance (100%+ YoYgrowth) unchanged. Sunway is positive about the 2018outlook and identifiesthree key catalysts: 1) ASP increase for iPhone components; 2) market sharegain in Samsung three-in-one module; and 3) the rising adoption of wirelesspower charging (WPC) on both iPhone and Android camp. Maintain Buy rating. In-line 2Q17results: strong YoY growth continues Sunway reported 2Q17EPS of RMB0.2(+109% YoY; -7% QoQ) and operatingprofit of RMB156m (+54% YoY; -5% QoQ) on sales of RMB714m (+73% YoY; flat QoQ). Sales missed market expectations by ~10%, due to soft iPhonedemand and some project delays from Chinese clients. However, GPM rose3ppt QoQ to 32.7% (vs. market expectations for 31-32%), owing to improvedproduct yields. Propelled by a higher non-op gain (government subsidiary andequity investment income), EPS came in 4% above consensus. Positive 2H17/2018outlook: ASP increase, market share gain and WPC For iPhone antenna, due to a key design change (placing Wi-Fi/BT antenna ontop of a supporting frame of dual cam), ASP could increase to USD2.5+ (upfrom USD1.5for legacy iPhone antenna). For Samsung’s WPC/NFC/MSTmodule (ASP of USD4+), Sunway expects its market share to grow from 10-15% in 2016to 25-30% in 2017and further to 40-50% in 2018. To cope withthe strong order increase, Sunway is now evaluating if it should set up afactory in Korea (dedicated for Samsung) and could finalize this decision inSep. For iPhone’s WPC module, Sunway missed the 2017project, but see afair chance that it can be a qualified supplier of this module for new iPhones in2018. In the Android camp, Chinese OEMs (Huawei, Xiaomi, etc.) are keen onadopting WPC modules (ASP of USD2+) in their 2018flagship devices.Sunway believes that it will be the primary WPC module supplier for ChineseOEMs, given its first-mover advantage and solid relationship with them. Valuation and investment risks We raise our 2018/19EPS forecasts by 2% and increase our target price fromRMB40to RMB45. Our new target price is still based on 35x PER (but rollingover from 2017-18average EPS to 2018EPS) or 0.8x PEG, which is in line withregional peers. Risks: order allocation loss on i-devices; severe pricecompetition; and global smartphone weakness.
立讯精密 电子元器件行业 2017-08-28 20.90 10.66 -- 21.86 4.59%
28.08 34.35%
详细
Benefiting from wireline and wireless upgrades。 We continue to view Luxshare (along with Sunway) as the top Buy in our ChinaA-share coverage. It continues to deliver solid results and a positive outlook.Long term, it benefits from USB Type-C and fast-charging upgrades on mobiledevices, which demand high quality cable/connectors. Some people areconcerned that wireless power charging (WPC) will likely disrupt Luxshare’score business (connectors/cables). However, Luxshare will likely benefit. First,wireline and wireless charging should co-exist for long time (given the gap incharging efficiency). Second, WPC requires a charging cable/pad (TX) andreceiving module (RX), for which Luxshare has a high market share.。 2Q17beats expectation on strong GPM。 Luxshare reported 2Q17EPS of RMB0.12(+89% yoy; +26% qoq) on operatingprofits of RMB450m (+54% yoy; 24% qoq) on sales of TWD 4.4bn (+65% yoy; +12% qoq). EPS/operating profit beat our estimate by 14%/13%, with GPM up2.4ppt to 22.8% (vs our 20.5%), due to better product mix, capacity utilizationand stabilized ASP trend (on i-device components). In terms of segmentperformance, mobile device components led, reporting 156% yoy growth(market share gain + iPhone audio adaptor) in 1H17, followed by automotive(+29% yoy), telecom equipment (+23%) and PC (-9% yoy).。 Promising 2H17outlook, due to new iPhones and new components。 Luxshare expects 3Q17net profit to reach RMB339-RMB475m (up 21% to 70%yoy). We expect Luxshare could achieve the high-end of its guidance, as wesee multiple growth drivers ahead in 2H17, including: 1) a stronger new iPhonecycle (iPhone 8with OLED, 3D sensing, WPC), 2) the addition of a wirelesscharging module (RX) and three-in-one (Wi-Fi/GPS/BT) antenna for newiPhones, 3) new Apple Watch (series 3) launch (Luxshare supplies the WPCpad) and 4) a rising penetration of USB Type-C and fast charging technologieson Android devices.。 Valuation and investment risks。 We revise our 2017-18E EPS by 7%/12% to reflect dollar content increase forthe iPhone and market share gains in the telecom/auto. We raise our targetprice from RMB20to RMB24, based on 30x 2018E EPS (from 30x 2017-18Eaverage EPS). 30x PER represents 0.9x PEG (vs. regional peers of 0.8x PEG).We see the premium valuation as justifiable, given its improved sector growthoutlook and long-term market share gain potential. Downside risks include: slow USB type-C proliferation, price competition and forex fluctuations.。
欣旺达 电子元器件行业 2017-08-17 12.22 13.77 -- 13.63 11.54%
13.63 11.54%
详细
Good results and optimistic 2H17outlook on iPhone 8strength Sunwoda released better 2Q17operating results thanks to sequential handset(iPhone/China smartphone) battery share gains and initial penetration of theiPad supply chain. Management anticipates 30-35% YoY EPS growth in 2H17,propelled by iPhone 8strength. We expect Sunwoda’s iPhone allocation to riseto 35-45% in 2017-2018vs. 20% in 2016. Driven by continued ASP increasesstimulated by dual cell battery proliferation, we expect Sunwoda’s iPhonerevenue CAGR to ramp to 40%+ in 2017-2020. Sunwoda is one of our toppicks in the iPhone supply chain, featuring both an ASP and an order allocationgain story. We believe its continued iPad share gains and increase in organicEV orders should ensure its long-term growth outlook. Reiterating Buy. 2Q17operating results tracking ahead of our expectations Sunwoda reported 2Q17earnings of RMB109mn (+5% YoY, +50% QoQ) onrevenue of RMB3.3bn (+76% YoY, +47% QoQ). Operating profit of RMB166mn(+130% QoQ, 39% YoY) was 20% higher than our estimate thanks to stronghandset/iPad battery share gains at major customers (Huawei, OPPO andApple, in our view). PC battery margin dropped to 12% in 2Q17vs. 15-16%previously; management attributes the unfavorable result to lower yieldresulting from new iPad battery production. After the initial learning curve,Sunwoda expects PC GPM to return to normal levels starting 3Q17. Thecompany also anticipates continued iPad allocation gains from 10-15% in 2017to 30-40% in 2018, supporting a 100% PC revenue CAGR in 2017-2018. Major beneficiary of iPhone 8battery spec upgrade Sunwoda indicates that its development process for the iPhone 8battery(upgraded to dual cell vs. single cell in iPhone 7) is nearly complete.Management is confident of winning a 50% share in both iPhone 8and thenew 5.5” LCD iPhone in 2H17. Due to the meaningful iPhone 8spec upgrade,Sunwoda anticipates a 50-100% increase in battery ASP, with 15-16% GPM vs.its historical average of 13-14%. Sunwoda also expects some of its Androidhandset customers to follow Apple’s new battery design (dual cell) given risingpower consumption needs and safety concerns about single cell design. Thecompany believes the ASP hike/share expansion at almost all of its handsetcustomers will help it deliver a 30%+ earnings CAGR in 2017-2018.Valuation and risks We fine-tune our model but keep our forecasts largely unchanged. We baseour RMB14.5target price on 24x 2018E P/E, or 0.9x PEG (vs. China IT industryaverage of 25-30x P/E, or 1.2x PEG), which we believe is reachable given thestrong sector outlook. Risks: iPhone share loss, slower China EV demand,unfavorable FX.
欣旺达 电子元器件行业 2017-08-03 11.64 13.77 -- 12.56 7.90%
13.63 17.10%
详细
Strong IT growth + new EV catalyst = Buy Sunwoda is the leading handset/EV battery pack maker in China. We expectthe company to deliver a 26%+ EPS CAGR in 2017-2020, stimulated by: 1)continued iPhone share gain/ASP hike; 2) initial taking off in iPad and Macbookbatteries; and 3) strong EV momentum propelled by accelerating EVpenetration in China. We also anticipate Sunwoda will deliver ongoing batterymargin expansion, given its superior quality stemming from verticallyintegrated production (in-house BMS/cell supply). Initiating with Buy rating. Strong i-device battery share gain is fueling accelerating growth ahead Sunwoda is the major battery supplier to both Apple and leading Chinasmartphone brands. We expect it to deliver 40%+ iPhone battery sales CAGRin 2017-2020thanks to 1) continued share gain (allocation lift to 30-45% vs.only 20% in 2016), and 2) ASP hike stemming from iPhone 8spec upgrades(changed to dual cell design with 50%+ price increase). We also anticipateongoing handset margin growth (15%+ vs. industry average of 8-10%)propelled by rising in-house battery cell (rising from 3% now to 40-60% in2018-2019E) and BMS supply for Android customers, and enhanced factoryautomation. Sunwoda also taps into iPad battery supply starting 2017andaims to win Macbook orders in 2018. Persistent Apple orders gains and non-Apple PC customer wins (Dell, HP) should stimulate 100%+ PC battery revenuegrowth in 2017-2018. EV batteries fuelling long-term momentum Sunwoda is an early mover in EV battery pack assembly and is establishingsolid partnerships with domestic auto OEMs (Wuling Motors, BAIC Motor,Dongfeng Motor, Geely). The company is expanding its EV battery cell capacityand aims to lift its in-house battery cell supply ratio. We expect Sunwoda todeliver a 35%+ EV profit CAGR in 2017-2020, propelled by acceleratingindustry growth (DB expects China EV market to expand at a 30% CAGR) andpersistent new customer gain.s given higher manufacturing flexibility overpeers (given its commitment in in-house battery cell and BMS development). Valuation and risks We base our RMB14.5target price on 24x 2018E P/E, or 0.9x PEG (vs. China ITindustry average of 25-30x P/E, or 1.2x PEG), which we believe is reachablegiven the strong sector outlook. Risks: iPhone share loss, slower China EVdemand, unfavorable FX.
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