金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
许英博

中信证券

研究方向: 汽车行业

联系方式: 0755-23835383

工作经历: 证书编号:S1010510120041,中信证券汽车行业分析师,证券从业5年<span style="display:none">。 毕业于清华大学汽车工程专业,2007年进入中信证券研究部。</span><a href="javascript:void(0)" id="toggleInfo">...>></a>

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东风科技 交运设备行业 2014-06-02 13.74 14.68 4.44% 14.26 3.78%
15.39 12.01% -- 详细
The Company’s operating profit is forecast to register a CAGR of ~30% and profit from auto electronics to represent 40%-plus over the next three years. The Company’s profit in future will stem mainly from three drivers: (i) thanks to the rapid increase in auto electronics adoption rate, Shanghai Johnson Controls Automotive Electronics (SJCAE, in which, the Company holds a 40% stake) is expected to log a rapid growth of ~50% over the next three years by virtue of developing new products/customers; (ii) thanks to improvement in the market share of major customers such as Dongfeng Aeolus and Dongfeng Venucia, Dongfeng Visteon (in which, the Company holds a 50% stake) is projected to sustain a rapid growth of ~20%; and (iii) thanks to upbeat climate in the downstream, the headquarters’ parts business is forecast to see improvement in both product mix and profitability. SJCAE has become Johnson Controls’s most important JV in the Asia-Pacific region with gradually emerging platform value. SJCAE has become Johnson Controls’s benchmark company for global manufacturing cost, product quality, and manufacturing efficiency, and its turnover/net profit increased from Rmb200/1.14mn in 2009 to Rmb900mn/100mn in 2013, while PPM index slid from 240 in 2008 to 4 in 2013. Moreover, the Company has made leapfrog progress in local R&D ability, and has taken advantage of its own strength to become a vendor for corresponding models of Dongfeng Aeolus for the project that Johnson Controls fails to win the bid worldwide. In our view, by virtue of favourable operation management, quality management, and R&D ability, the value of the Company as the auto part platform will gradually emerge. With SJCAE’s consistently diversified products, CMU and HUD will become major growth drivers in future. SJCAE’s products include multifunction display, combination instrument, HUD, CMU, wireless Bluetooth module, PCB assembly, electronic compass, tire pressure sensor, reversing radar display, vehicle body controller, and other auto electronics, in which, CMUs are exported mainly to Japan-based Mazda, and SJCAE is projected to sell ~300k/500-600k units of CMUs in 2014/15E. Additionally, CMU business is expected to see gradual development of such new customers as Mitsubishi and Honda. Johnson HUD is PSA’s global sole vendor. As home-grown PSA models introduce HUD in future, and the Company gradually becomes a vendor for Shanghai GM, Dongfeng Honda, and other customers, HUD is expected to become another major source for the Company’s growth. With consistently improved customer structure, SJCAE is expected to gradually increase product supply to GM, Honda, Mitsubishi, and other customers. Currently, the Company’s customer base has gradually expanded from DPCA to a slew of brands including Shanghai GM, Shanghai VW, Dongfeng Honda, GAC Honda, Dongfeng Nissan, Mazda, and Ford, boasting consistently improved customer structure. As for old customers, the market shares of DPCA, Dongfeng Nissan, and Dongfeng Venucia are expected to keep improving thanks to consistent introduction of new products. As for new customers, with the development of such products with high added value as HUDs and CMUs, the revenues from GM, Honda, and Mitsubishi are expected to represent a growing proportion as a new growth driver for the Company’s turnover. Potential risks associated with investment into the Company: (i) slower-than-expected development of SJCAE’s electronic products and customers, (ii) decline in market positions of major customers, (iii) heavy-duty truck business losses arsing from bleak commercial vehicle market, and (iv) surging raw materials prices and labor cost erode corporate earnings. Investment advice: we reiterate the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS of Rmb0.95/0.96/1.18 (EPS of Rmb0.55 in 2013). It is trading at Rmb13.24, implying 2014/15/16E PE of 12/12/10x. Its earnings growth rate will be relatively low in 2015E, mainly due to ~Rmb60mn in revenue from land slot transfer by Zhanjiang Deli (the Company’s subsidiary) in 2014. Its net profit after excluding this portion of non-recurring gains is projected to register a CAGR of 30% over the next three years, and auto electronics business to represent ~40%. We believe 2014E PE of 20x-plus is fair for its operating profit. We reiterate “OVERWEIGHT” rating with the target price at Rmb16 per share.
上汽集团 交运设备行业 2014-04-23 14.11 12.34 23.14% 14.84 5.17%
15.86 12.40% -- 详细
Event: SAIC Motor put on show many models at the Auto China 2014 in Beijing, for example, the Volkswagen NMC, Skoda New Octavia, Chevrolet Trax, Chevrolet New Cruze, Baojun 610 etc. Comments: Launch of new models pick up gradually, and the Company’s market position is further tamped down. During the Auto China 2014, SAIC Motor put on show many new models, such as the Volkswagen NMC (an entry-level coupe, to hit the market at end-2014), Skoda New Octavia (sedan), Chevrolet Trax (a compact SUV), Chevrolet New Cruze (sedan) and Baojun 610 (hatchback). We forecast that the Company will also roll out a Buick compact SUV and a Cadillac LWB ATS etc. during the year. Accelerating pace of new model launches will help further tamp down the Company’s market position. SAIC Motor sold 1.52mn units (+14.5%) in 1Q14, and its 1Q14 results are expected to sustain relatively fast growth. SAIC Motor sold cumulatively 1.52mn units of auto (+14.5%) in 1Q14, continuously beating the average growth in the auto sector. Among it, Shanghai Volkswagen sold 510k units (+25%), Shanghai GM sold 430k units (+8%), SGMW sold 480k units (+15%) and SAIC Passenger Vehicle sold 50k units (-0.6%). Based on growth of its 1Q14 sales volume and the sales structure, we forecast the Company to sustain relatively fast growth of 10%+ in 1Q14. SAIC Motor keeps high dividend yield and attractive valuation. The Company proposed to pay out cash dividend of Rmb12 for every 10 shares outstanding, equivalent to a dividend payout ratio of 53.3%. Based on the current share price, its dividend yield is as high as 8.5%. Considering that the Company has ample cash flow and is gradually finishing its building of strategic presence, we expect the Company to maintain relatively high dividend payout ratio in the future. Meanwhile, the Company trades at only 5.7x 2014E PE at present due to slowing growth in the auto sector and expectations for auto purchase ban. The valuation is noticeably lower than that of the global mainstream auto conglomerates (~8x), suggesting remarkable valuation advantage. E-commerce platform officially came into operation on 28 Mar. Active exploration of new business will help the Company’s re-rating. In response to the increasing online shopping behaviour, the Company officially launched an e-commerce platform (www.chexiang.com) on 28 Mar. In our view, the platform does not target overthrowing the existing distribution channels. Rather, it aims at attracting customer traffic by providing individualized services (such as auto customization) through the online platform, and guiding the online customers to the off-line channels, thus building an O2O business model and establishing a virtuous cycle. The e-commerce platform is forecast to help upgrade the Company’s brand and valuation. Potential risks: (i) Disappointing sales volume due to slowdown in macroeconomic growth, (ii) worse-than-expected consumers’ recognition of Shanghai Volkswagen’s new models; (iii) growing losses of the Company’s own brands; (iv) decline in valuation due to some cities’ purchase restrictions. Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating. We reiterate the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS of Rmb2.48/2.86/3.24 (EPS of Rmb2.25 in 2013). Its last price of Rmb14.09 per share implies prospective 2014/15/16E PE of 6/5/4x. As a leader in the Chinese auto market, SAIC Motor is quickly launching new models. We forecast its 1Q14 results to register a growth of 10%+. Meanwhile, the Company kept a dividend yield of 8.5%, suggesting significant valuation advantages. Additionally, the Company is also actively developing the auto e-commerce and alternative energy vehicle business. Based on the sector’s average valuation, we believe a prospective 2014E PE of 8x is fair for it. We reiterate the “BUY” rating and the target price of Rmb19.
长安汽车 交运设备行业 2014-04-21 11.72 9.56 19.70% 12.34 4.40%
13.34 13.82% -- 详细
The Company registered net income of Rmb3.5bn (+142% YoY) in 2013, equivalent to EPS of Rmb0.75, in line with market expectation. The Company sold a total of 2.12mn vehicles in 2013 (+20.7% YoY), among which local brands sedan tallied 387k units (+67.9% YoY), noticeably better than sectoral average. The Company’s 2013 earnings grew considerably mainly due to the following three reasons. 1) Changan Ford raked in net income of Rmb8.2bn (+156% YoY); 2) CAFME registered net income of Rmb240mn (+524% YoY); and 3) Jiangling Holdings Limited recorded net income of Rmb530mn (+24% YoY). Local brand: The Company delivered sound financial treatment in 2013 and is expected to incur much less losses in 2014E. The Company’s local brands help it register an turnover of Rmb38.5bn (+31%) with gross margin at 17.5%, among which sedan’s gross margin stands at 17.9% (at 16.0% in 2012) and minicar’s gross margin at 15.2% ( at 20% in 2012). In 2013, the Company changed in accounting estimation of product quality warranty fee so that its net income decreased by Rmb170mn. In addition, the Company provisioned Rmb330mn for asset impairment losses, which underscores its prudence in financial treatment. Its local brands are expected to incur much less losses in 2014E with a string of new models such as CS75 being launched and produce mix optimization. Changan Ford: Profitability is projected to rise continually on localization of major parts such as engine, gearbox etc. The Company sold taotal of 680k vehicles (+60%) in 2013 thanks to launch of better-positioned new models such as new Focus, Kuga, new Mondeo etc. to rake in a turnover of Rmb84.2bn (+54%) and net income of Rmb8.2bn (+156%) with its net margin rising to 9.8% (at 5.9% in 2012). Its profitability is projected to continue rising thanks to product mix optimization, localization of major parts such as engine, gearbox etc. Changan Mazda: earnings growth picked up thanks to launch of new models. Changan Mazda registered profit of Rmb78mn in 2H13, up by 258% HoH as it introduced CX-5 (SUV) and sold 23k units of CX-5. It is projected to launch brand-new Mazda 3 in 2Q14E. Thanks to the launch of new models, Changan Mazda’s earnings are forecast to pick up noticeably in 2014E. Risks associated with investment into the Company: (i) Worse-than-expected sales volume of Changan Ford due to escalation of Kuga recall, (ii) consumers’ weaker-than-expected acceptance of brand-new Mazda 3, CS&5 of local brand, and other new models, and (iii) consistent decline in minicar business. Earnings forecast and valuation: We reiterate the Company’s 2014/15E EPS and debut its 2016E EPS to arrive at its 2014/15/16E EPS of Rmb1.50/1.98/2.39 (2013 EPS at Rmb0.75). It is now trading at Rmb11.72 per share, implying 2014/15/16E PE of 8/6/5x. Given that Changan Ford, Changan Mazda and other JVs have been introducing new models continually, localization of engine, gearbox and other major parts are and continually enhancing market positions of local brands, and referring to secoral valuation, we believe 10-12x 2014E PE is fair for the Company and reiterate BUY rating with the target price at Rmb16 per share.
星宇股份 交运设备行业 2014-04-17 19.10 22.66 37.41% 20.49 2.91%
19.66 2.93% -- 详细
Investment Highlights In 2013, the Company registered Rmb220mn in net profit (+15.4% YoY) with EPS of Rmb0.91, meeting market expectations. Thanks to consistent development of customer base and products, the Company raked in Rmb1.63bn in turnover in 2013, up by 23.8% YoY, a growth notably outpacing the sector’s average. Due to increased pressure from decline in annual prices for products, consistent mounting labor cost, and other factors, its gross margin stood at 24.6% in 2013 (-1.3ppts YoY). As for expense ratio, thanks to economies of scale and lean management, its administrative expense ratio slipped by 2.4ppts YoY to 7.4%. It plans to pay out Rmb7.3 of cash dividend for every 10 shares outstanding, and sustain 80%-plus dividend payout ratio for three straight years. The Company logged Rmb52.70mn in net profit in 1Q14 (+19.6% YoY) with EPS at Rmb0.22, boasting accelerated earnings growth. In 1Q14, the Company posted Rmb430mn in turnover (+16.1% YoY); gross margin rose by 0.5ppt YoY to 23.8%; administrative expense ratio slid by 1.0ppt YoY to 7.4%; and financial expense ratio edged up by 3.6ppts YoY, mainly due to increase in financial expense arising from bank wealth management products’ interest income booked in as “investment gain”. In 1Q14, it registered Rmb52.70mn in net profit (+19.6% YoY), boasting accelerated earnings growth, and its full-year earnings are projected to grow by ~20% in 2014E. The Company boasts quality customer resources, and its revenue from VW brands auto makers represented 40%-plus. The Company boasts quality customer resources with consistently improving structure. Based on its customers such as VW, GM, Nissan, and Toyota, it successfully entered the supplier system for Changan Ford and Dongfeng Honda, and undertaken relevant R&D projects in 2013, providing services for all auto groups other than Korean ones. By brand, in 2013, its revenue from FAW-VW/Shanghai VW/FAW Toyota represented 31.8%/~10.3%/~5.1% of its total turnover. It quality customer structure will provide effective support for its steady business growth in the long term. Endeavouring to diversify into LED, AFS, and other car lamp electronic businesses. The LED-based car lamps will be a general trend, and the Company is expanding from small lamps and rear combination lamps toward headlamps, boasting a huge growth potential in future. It is endeavouring to expand LED, AFS, and other car lamp electronic businesses. Full-LED rear combination lamps designed and manufactured for FAW-VW New Golf A7 represent domestic leading technology. Also, its 500k-set LED lamp and supporting project are forecast to be completed in Jun 14E, which will pave the way for new product market development. It is expected to launch LED headlamps in 2014E, and proportion of LED lamp business revenue to increase to 20%-plus. Potential risks: (i) slower-than-expected growth of downstream auto demand; (ii) decline in market position of major customers; (iii) weaker-than-expected development of LED and other new products; (iv) slower-than-expected inorganic growth; and (v) corporate earnings eroded by surging prices for plastic particles and other major raw materials. Earnings forecast and valuation: we reiterate the Company's 2014/15E EPS of Rmb1.09/1.30 and project its 2016E EPS to be Rmb1.55 (EPS of Rmb0.91 in 2013). It is trading at Rmb20.97, implying 2014/15/16E PE of 19/16/14x. Factoring in its quality customer resources, steady growth in its existing business, active development of LED, AFS, and other car lamp electronic products, after-sale service market potential in future, and possible inorganic growth with over-allotment proceeds, and based on the sector's average valuation, we believe 2014E PE of 25x is fair for it, and reiterate “OVERWEIGHT” rating with the target price of Rmb26 per share.
长安汽车 交运设备行业 2014-04-15 11.82 9.56 19.70% 12.50 4.87%
13.34 12.86% -- 详细
Event: The Company pre-announced its 1Q14 earnings, forecasting that its net profit to stand at Rmb1.85bn-2.05bn (+237-274% YoY), implying EPS of ~Rmb0.40-0.44. It also guided its 2013 results, indicating that it registered Rmb38.5bn/3.5bn in turnover/net profit (+31%/142% YoY) with EPS of Rmb0.75. Comments: EPS of ~Rmb0.40-0.44 in 1Q14 notably beat market expectations. In 2013, the Company logged Rmb38.5/3.5bn in turnover/net profit (+31%/142% YoY) with EPS of Rmb0.75, meeting market expectations. In 1Q14E, it forecast its net profit to be Rmb1.85bn-2.05bn, and EPS to be ~Rmb0.40-0.44, notably beating market expectations, thanks mainly to three drivers: (i) Changan Ford sustained robust sales, selling 200k units (+53%) in 1Q14, and Kuga, new Mondeo, and other high-end models represented a growing proportion; (ii) Changan local brands saw consistent improvement in sales volume and market position, and the headquarters incurred much less losses; and (iii) such JVs as Changan Mazda, Changan Suzuki, and JMC registered a rapid growth. Changan Ford: sales volume remained high, and profitability picked up. As of 21 Feb 14, the Company recalled 81k units of Kuga, mainly because production materials for some batches of front steering knuckles failed to meet Ford global standard for intensity of such materials. In our view, thanks to high growth in SUV demand and rapid increase in the number of Ford 4S shops, 12k units of Kuga were sold in Mar, reflecting limited impact of the recall. In 1Q14, Changan Ford sold 200k units (+53%), including 33/25k units of Kuga/new Mondeo. Thanks to growing proportion of medium and high-end products, and gradual localization of such core components as engines and gearboxes, the Company’s profitability is expected to keep improving. Local brands: improved market position, and optimized product mix. Thanks to consistent launch of new products, the Company sold 390k units of sedans of local brands in 2013 (+68% YoY) with notable improvement in market share. In 1Q14, its local brands saw high growth in sales volume, in which, CS35/EADO/Honor sales volume hit 27/36/47k (+78%/73%/31%), showing further optimized product mix, and its local brands are expected to incur much less losses in 1Q14E. New SUV CS75 is forecast to be launched at the Auto China 2014, which is expected to become a newgrowth driver for the Company. Earnings growth rates of such JVs as Changan Mazda, Changan Suzuki, and JMC picked up. In 2H13, Changan Mazda introduced CX-5 (SUV), a model based on brand-new SKYACTIV technology, and sold 15k units of XX-5 in 1Q14. It is projected to launch brand-new Mazda 3 in 2Q14E. Thanks to the launch of new models, Changan Mazda’s earnings are forecast to improve noticeably i n 2014E. Benefiting from the launch of S-Cross (SUV) and other new products, Changan Suzuki is expected to incur much less losses. Thanks to the operation of Xiaolan base, and introduction of Ford SUV and new generation of Transit in 2015E, JMC is projected to usher in a fresh round of rapid earnings growth period. Potential risks: (i ) Worse-than-expected sales volume of Changan Ford due to escalation of Kuga recall, (ii) consumers’ weaker-than-expected acceptance of brand-new Mazda 3, CS&5 of local brand, and other new models, and (iii) consistent decline in minicar business. Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating: Gi ven the Company’s forecast-beating 1Q14 earnings, we lift its 2014/15E EPS to Rmb1.50/1.98 (from Rmb1.10/1.45), and project its 2013E EPS to be Rmb0.75 (EPS of Rmb0.31 in 2012). It is trading at Rmb10.84, implying 2013/14/15E PE of 15/7/5x. Factoring in the consistent introduction of new products from Changan Ford, Changan Mazda, and other JVs, localization of engines, gearboxes, and other core components, and consistently improving market posi tion of its local brands, and based on the sector’s average val uation, we believe 2014E PE of 10 -12x is fair for it. We reiterate “BUY” rating with the target price of Rmb16 per share.
上汽集团 交运设备行业 2014-04-11 14.56 12.34 23.14% 15.16 4.12%
15.86 8.93%
详细
Event: In Mar 2014, the Company registered wholesale of 500k units (+8.3% YoY/+12.8% MoM), including Shanghai Volkswagen’s sales volume of 152k units (+15.1% YoY/-5.7% MoM), Shanghai GM’s 144k units (+7.2% YoY/+26.3 % MoM), SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle’s 18k units (+3.7% YoY/+30.2% MoM), and SGMW’s 166k units (+6.0% YoY/+15.5% MoM). Comments: In Mar, the Company registered wholesale of 500k units (+8.3% YoY), extending steady growth. Among its major JVs, Shanghai Volkswagen sold 152k units (+15.1% YoY) in Mar, Shanghai GM sold 144k units (+7.2% YoY/+26.3% MoM) and SGMW sold 166k units (+6.0% YoY, +15.5% MoM). We forecast that SAIC Motor will maintain steady growth in the April sales volume, and beat the industry average in terms of the YoY growth rate. 1Q14 results are expected to sustain rapid growth. SAIC Motor sold cumulatively 1.52mn units (+14.4% YoY) in 1Q14, higher than the average growth rate in the sector. Among its JV subsidiaries, Shanghai Volkswagen sold 512k units (+25.3% YoY) and maintained high profitability thanks to continuous high sales of Passat and Tiguan; Shanghai GM sold 432k units (+7.7% YoY) and its profitability is expected to continue improving due to the rising proportion of B-class sedans (such as Regal, Malibu, Encore and Captiva) and SUVs in the sales mix. Considering steady increase in the Company’s 1Q14 sales volume and strong profitability, we forecast its 1Q14 net profit to sustain rapid growth. The Company’s e-commerce platform was officially launched on 28 Mar, indicating the Company is actively exploring the new business model. Against the growing importance of Internet in auto consumption, the Company officially put its e-commerce platform (i.e. the www.chexiang.com) into operation on 28 Mar. This is not directed at overthrowing the existing distribution channels. Instead, it hopes to attract the customer traffic by providing individualized services (such as auto customization) through the online platform, and guide the online customers to the offline channels to build the O2O business model and form a virtuous cycle. The e-commerce platform is forecast to help upgrade the Company’s brand and valuation. Record high dividend yield issued a positive signal and will help fuel re-rating. The Company proposed to distribute cash dividend of Rmb12 for every 10 shares outstanding, equivalent to a dividend payout ratio of 53.3% (compared to 16.4% in 2011 and 31.9% in 2012). Relative to the share price of Rmb12.81 at present, it dividend yield is as high as 9.4%, scaling a new high in the Shanghai and Shenzhenstock exchanges over the past two years. In our view, the high dividend yield issues a positive signal to the investors. In addition, given its stable market position and abundant cash flows, we project the Company will continue handsome dividend payout in the future. Potential risks: (i) Worse-than-expected consumers’ recognition of Shanghai Volkswagen’s new models; (ii) growing losses of the Company’s own brands; (iii) slowing growth of the sector due to some cities’ purchase restrictions and even-odd license plate plans. Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating. We reiterate the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS of Rmb2.48/2.86/3.24 (EPS of Rmb2.25 in 2013). Its last price of Rmb14.57 per share implies prospective 2014/15/16E PE of 6/5/5x. As a leader in the Chinese auto market, SAIC Motor kept a dividend yield of more than 9%. In addition, it is actively developing the auto e-commerce and alternative energy vehicle business. Based on the sector’s average valuation, we believe a prospective 2014E PE of 8x is fair for it. We reiterate the “BUY” rating and set its target price at Rmb19.
宇通客车 交运设备行业 2014-04-04 15.50 11.66 40.66% 17.20 7.37%
16.75 8.06%
详细
Event:In Mar 2014, Yutong Bus sold 4,1999 units (+32.1% YoY, +89.9% MoM), including 2,320 units of large passenger vehicles (+45.1% YoY, +245% MoM), 1,318 units of medium passenger vehicles (+7.3%YoY, +11.5% MoM), and 561 units of light passenger vehicles (+59.4% YoY, +57.1% MoM). Comments: Yutong Bus recorded sales of 4,199 units (+32.1% YoY, +89.9% MoM) in Mar 2014, representing a noticeable pickup in sales volume growth. Delivery of alternative energy vehicles pushed up growth of the Company’s sales volume. Among others, the Company sold 2320 units of large passenger vehicles (+45.1% YoY, +245% MoM). Along with rollout and implementation of the local detailed policies and launch of the alternative energy vehicle tendering projects, sales volume of the Company is expected to sustain rapid growth in 2Q14. 1Q14 positive growth is expected. Yutong Bus sold accumulatively 10,668 units of autos, up slightly by 3.4% YoY. It delivered 900 units of alternative energy vehicles in 1Q14, including 600 units delivered to Venezuela. Given increase in the high-price products as a percentage of total sales volume, we forecast the Company will sustain high average selling prices and profitability and realize single-digit positive growth in its 1Q14 results. Increase in the ratio of alternative energy vehicles will help upgrade the Company’s product mix and enhance its profitability. Yutong Bus has remarkable comprehensive advantage in the alternative energy passenger vehicle market. It sold 3,897 units (+118% YoY) of alternative energy passenger vehicles in 2013 with a market share of nearly 40%. Given its ample capacity and rich in-pipeline products in the field of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric bus and ordinary hybrid electric vehicles, it is expected to sustain a leading position in the market. We forecast Yutong Bus to sell 8000 units and 16,000 units of alternative energy vehicles in 2014/15E, respectively, and the alternative energy vehicles as a percentage of its total sales are forecast to rise from ~7% to ~20%, which will raise the Company’s average selling price and profitability. Injection of auto parts assets helps improve profitability. Yutong Group, the Company’s controlling shareholder, promised to inject auto parts assets to the Company prior to end-2014. The dashboard, luggage rack, sponge and plastic parts, wire harness, bus air-con, and other auto parts businesses of the Group boast much higher gross margin (~20%) than that of whole vehicle manufacturing. Injection of these parts assets is projected to slightly boost the Company’s EPS. Potential risks: Macro downturn causes demand for medium- and large coaches to come in less than expected; efforts to implement alternative energy coach policies fall short of expectations and slow delivery of alternative energy coaches causes the Company to report worse than expected 1Q14E EPS. Earnings forecast and valuation. We reiterate the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS at Rmb1.71/2.07 /2.49 (2013A EPS at Rmb1.43). Its last price of Rmb15.91 is equivalent to 2014/15/16E PE of 9/8/6x. As the leading player in the medium and large coaches segment, the Company commands solid position and benefits from faster phase-out of heavily-polluting vehicles, accelerated extension of alternative energy bus and other environment protection policies. Given valuation of auto sector, we believe that 15x 2014E PE fair for the Company and reiterate BUY with its target price at Rmb25 per share.
东风科技 交运设备行业 2014-04-02 9.50 11.01 -- 11.43 20.32%
14.30 50.53%
详细
The Company logged Rmb170mn in net profit (+77% YoY) and EPS of Rmb0.55 in 2013, meeting market expectations. Thanks to the rapid growth of its JVs (i.e. Shanghai Johnson Controls Automotive Electronics (SJCAE) and Dongfeng Visteon (Wuhan) Automotive Trim Systems), and Rmb40-plus investment gain from transfer of stake in Dongfeng Visteon, the Company logged Rmb170mn in net profit (+77% YoY) and EPS of Rmb0.55 in 2013, falling within the guided range of earnings and in line with market expectations. Its headquarters saw steady development of various businesses, and the gross margin, expense ratios, and other indicators kept stable. The Company’s earnings are forecast to register a high growth of ~40% in 2014E, and auto electronics earnings to represent 30%-plus. The Company mainly manufactures auto meter system, trim system, braking system, fuel supply system products, vehicle body controllers, and other electronics systems. In 2014E, SJCAE is projected to sustain a high growth of 40%-plus, and Dongfeng Visteon to register a rapid growth of 20%-plus. Additionally, transfer of land slot in Zhanjiang is forecast to create revenue of Rmb40-80mn to the Company. Given the above factors, its earnings are forecast to register a high growth of ~40% in 2014E. With constant upgrade in SJCAE’s electronic products and client base structure, high growth of 30%-plus is forecast to be sustained thanks to the growing proportion of automotive electronics. The Company holds a 40% stake in SJCAE, which supplies passenger vehicle meter assembly, HVAC, intelligent key, display, vehicle body electronic control system, and other automotive electronic products mainly to customers such as Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen, Mazda and Ford. In 2013, SJCAE posted Rmb880mn in turnover (Rmb470mn in 2012), and Rmb100mn in net profit (Rmb42.08mn in 2012). The Company is projected to be taken by Dongfeng Motor Group (DMG) as a platform for auto parts resource integration. Based on the development models of HUAYU Automotive Systems of SAIC Motor, Changchun FAWAY Automobile Components and Fawer Automotive Parts of China FAW Group, and other auto parts platforms, the Company is expected to develop into DMG’s platform for auto parts resource integration as the only listed auto part maker under DMG. Currently, the Company’s parts are supplied mainly to Dongfeng Heavy-duty Truck (commercial vehicles) and Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen (passenger vehicles), with a small proportion of products supplied to members within DMG, so there should be a broad potential of rapid growth in future. Potential risks: (i) slower-than-expected development of SJCAE’s electronic products and customers, (ii) decline in market positions of major downstream customers, (iii) heavy-duty truck part business losses arising from bleak commercial vehicle market, and (iv) surging raw materials prices and rising labor cost eroding corporate earnings. Earnings forecast and valuation: given SJCAE’s rapid development, revenue from transfer of Deli land slot in Zhanjiang, among others, we lift the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS to Rmb0.77/0.78/0.94 (EPS of Rmb0.55 in 2013; from 2014/15E EPS of Rmb0.60/0.60). It is trading at Rmb9.54, implying 2014/15/16E PE of 12/12/10x. Given that over the next three years, its net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to register a CAGR of 30%, and auto electronics business to represent 30%-plus and keep improving, we value the Company at 20x 2014E net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses. We set its target price at Rmb12, and upgrade to “OVERWEIGHT” rating.
上汽集团 交运设备行业 2014-03-31 13.60 12.34 23.14% 15.16 11.47%
15.86 16.62%
详细
SAIC Motor posted net profit of Rmb24.8bn (+19.5% YoY), equivalent to EPS of Rmb2.25 in 2013, strongly outperforming the market expectations. It realized sales volume of 5.11 units (+13.7% YoY), turnover of Rmb565.8bn (+17.6% YoY), net profit of Rmb24.8bn (+19.5% YoY) and net profit with deduction of the non-recurring gains of Rmb22.8bn (+10.3% YoY) in 2013. Its non-recurring gains mainly included Rmb1.4bn in government subsidies and Rmb800mn from transfer of financial assets. In 4Q13, SAIC Motor posted net profit of Rmb6.8bn (+47.3% YoY), and gross margin of 17.7% (+5.2ppts QoQ), noticeably outstripping the market expectations. The Company proposed to distribute cash dividend of Rmb12 for every 10 shares, implying a dividend yield of 9.4%. The handsome dividend payout issues a positive signal to the market. SAIC Motor plans to distribute cash dividend of Rmb12 for every 10 shares, equivalent to a dividend payout ratio of 53.3% (compared to 16.4% in 2011 and 31.9% in 2012). Relative to the share price of Rmb12.81 at present, it dividend yield is as high as 9.4%, scaling a new high in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges over the past two years. In our view, the high dividend yield issues a positive signal to the investors. In addition, given its stable market position and abundant cash flows, we project the handsome dividend payout to continue in the future The e-commerce platform is officially put into operation on 28 March, indicating the Company is actively exploring the new business model. This will fuel increase in the stock’s valuation. Against the increasing online shopping habit of consumers, SAIC Motor officially launches the e-commerce platform “chexiang.com” on 28 March. This is not directed at overthrowing the existing distribution channels. Instead, it hopes to attract the customer traffic by providing individualized services (such as auto customization) through the online platform, and guide the online customers to the offline channels to build the O2O business model and form a virtuous cycle. The e-commerce platform is forecast to help upgrade the Company’s brand and valuation. SAIC Motor will usher in a new round of product launch cycle in 2015. This will warrant its earnings growth. Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM are the Company’s main sources of profit. Shanghai Volkswagen is expected to roll out the A+ class sedan, B-class SUV and c-class sedan to extend the high growth, while Shanghai GM is expected to roll out A class SUV, Cadillac ATS, new-generation Regal and new-generation Lacrosse to further improve its product mix and underpin the earnings growth in the future. We forecast the Company’s 2014/15 sales volume CAGR to surpass 10% and its net profit growth to surpass the sales volume growth. Potential risks: disappointing sales volume due to slowdown in macro economy; weak receiving of the new models, widening loss of the local brand operation and impact of new auto purchase bans. Earnings forecast and valuation: given the stronger-than-expected annual results, we raise its 2014/15/16E EPS to Rmb2.48/2.86/3.24 (vs 2013 EPS of Rmb2.25, the former forecast of 2014/15E EPS was Rmb2.37/2.76). Its current share price (Rmb12.81) equals to 5x/4x/4x 2014/15/16E PE. As a leader in the domestic auto sector, the SAIC Motor maintained a dividend yield as high as 9%-plus in 2013, and it is actively testing the e-commerce and alternative energy vehicle business. Based on valuation of the auto sector, we value the Company at 8x prospective 2014E PE. Maintain the BUY rating with TP at Rmb19.
宇通客车 交运设备行业 2014-03-27 15.39 11.66 40.66% 17.20 8.11%
16.64 8.12%
详细
The Company reported 2013 net income of Rmb1.82bn (+17.6%YoY), equivalent to EPS of Rmb1.43, which beats market consensus expectations. In 2013, the Company sold a total of 56k vehicles (+8.5% YoY) to rake in turnover of Rmb22.1bn (+11.8%YoY), out of which net income stands at Rmb1.82bn (+17.6%YoY) and EBITDA net income at Rmb2.67 (+32.5% YoY). Its 4Q13 net income came in at Rmb920mn (+59% YoY), beating consensus expectations, which is mainly due to the following two reasons. 1) Recovery of Rmb800mn in advance for land slot and writeback of Rmb260mn in bad debt provision; 2) Delivery of alternative coache and that of export orders coincided so that its selling price per unit and profit were boosted noticeably. Coach segment grew steadily and alternative energy coach enters fast-growth period with its 2014/15E output and sales volume growth rate approaching 100%. Sales volume of coaches posted low growth rate for two straight years as demand for long-distance passenger transportation via high-way diminishes due to diversion by high-speed railway. Given low base of coaches with seats, public bus entering the growth period etc., we forecast that CAGR of medium and large coach market will maintain at ~9% in 2014/15E and the increment will mainly stem from alternative energy bus, export and school bus etc. Over next two years, a total of over 300k units of alternative energy vehicles will be extended, among which alternative energy coaches will tally 80k-100k units. Given efforts in implementing this policy etc., we forecast that the sales volume of alternative energy vehicles in 2013/14/15E will come in at 10k/20k/40k units. As the leading maker of alternative energy coach, the Company commands solid market position and its profit margin is expected to further rise. Boasting noticeably comprehensive advantages in the field of alternative energy coach, the Company sold a total of 3,897 alternative energy coaches in 2013 (+118%YoY) with its market share at nearly 40%. The Company has adequate capacity and products (Plug-in Hybrid coach, pure electric coach and conventional hybrid coach) full in the pipeline so that it is expected to maintain its leading position in market. We project that the Company’s sales volume will come in at 8k/15k units in 2014/15E and alternative energy autos as a percent of its total sales volume is expected to rise to nearly 20% from 7% with ASPs and profitability being enhanced continually. Injection of auto part assets will be conducive to enhancing the Company’s profitability. Yutong Group, controlling shareholder of the Company’s has committed to finish injecting auto part assets into the Company by the end of 2014. The Group’s part businesses such as dashboard, luggage rack, sponge and plastics, wiring harness, coach air-con etc. boast desirable profitability with their gross margins maintain above 20%, which is higher than the Company’s gross margin for now. The aforesaid auto part assets are projected to enhance the Company’s profitability after being injected into it, which is conducive to pickup of the Company’s profit growth rate. Potential risks: Macro downturn causes demand for medium- and large coaches to come in less than expected; efforts to implement alternative energy coach policies fall short of expectations and slow delivery of alternative energy coaches causes the Company to report worse than expected 1Q14E EPS. Earnings forecast and valuation. Given its better than expected 2013 results and proportion of alternative energy coach sales volume to rise over next two years, we lift the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS to Rmb1.71/2.07 /2.49 (2013A EPS at Rmb1.43). Its last price of Rmb15.47 is equivalent to 2014/15/16E PE of 9/7/6x. As the leading player in the medium and large coaches segment, the Company commands solid position and benefits from faster phase-out of heavily-polluting vehicles, accelerated extension of alternative energy bus and other environment protection policies. Given valuation of auto sector, we believe that 15x 2014E PE fair for the Company and reiterate BUY with its target price at Rmb25 per share.
长城汽车 交运设备行业 2014-03-25 30.39 14.26 87.04% 37.58 20.10%
36.49 20.07%
详细
Focusing on pickup, SUV and sedan, the Company is dedicated to becoming a world-class auto maker. The Company sold 770k autos in 2013 (+24%) to register Rmb56.8bn in turnover (+32%) and Rmb8.2bn in net profit (+44%). Its selling price per vehicle and profit per vehicle have been going on rising. Looking ahead, the Company will focus on pickup, SUV and sedan and devote itself to becoming a world-class auto maker by attracting talents, delivering leading quality, innovating technologically, outstanding management, integrating supply chains and international-standard oriented operation and boosting its brand value on advantages in product categories. We forecast that the Company will maintain 20% growth in sales volume and 30% rise in earnings p. a. over next two years. H8 is projected to be launched in Apr 2014 and the Company is experiencing the production uphill better than expected. The Company announced on Jan 14th 2014 to postpone launch of H8 by three months for further improvement so as to deliver better quality. We project that H8 will be launched formally in Apr 2014. Given the training for personnel of its Xushui Plant and meticulous preparation for manufacturing, we reckon that the Company is expected to experience its production uphill better than expected. H8 is the first high-performance SUV in the mid- to high-end market after the Haval brand started standing on its own and its stable monthly sales volume is projected to be over 5k units given Haval’s good reputation and extensive client base. H2 is projected to be launched in 2H14E andO2O marketing (online order-placing) is projected to be adopted to market a portion of this product. As the SUV model that the Company develops out of scratch, H2 is projected to be equipped with an engine of 1.5T to combine strong power and fuel efficiency perfectly. Given that buyers will be younger, their needs are more individualized and internet market, online order placing is projected to be adopted for a portion of H2. We forecast that the selling price of H2 will fall within the range of Rmb90k-Rmb110k. Given the range of selling price and marketing mode, we project that stable monthly sales volume of H2 is forecast to be over 10k units, being one of the major drivers for its sales volume growth going forward. The Company is projected to launch automatic H6 model that is equipped with 6AT and the product’s capacity is expected to rise to 30k units per month. Since 2011 when H6 was launched, this model has been in undersupply and buyers still have to wait for a period of time even for now when its monthly output has already been nearly 25k units. Furthermore, the Company has been raising its selling price continually through upgrade or revamping. At present, Sport H6’s sales volume has already took up over 50% of H6’s total. The Company is projected to launch the automatic H6 model that is equipped with 6AT, which is conducive to further raising its sales volume and selling price per vehicle. As for capacity, thanks to capacity adjustment of its second plant in Tianjin, the Company’s monthly H6 output is expected to rise to 30k units in 2H14E. Potential risks: H8, H2 and other new models see worse than expected acceptance after being launched so that their sales volumes miss expectations. Economical SUV segment witnesses intensifying competition, which undermines the Company’s profitability. Continually declining output and sales volume of sedan cars drags down the Company’s earnings. Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating: We forecast the Company’s 2014/15/16E EPS to be Rmb3.67/4.77/5.75 (2013A EPS at Rmb2.70). If sales volume of H8 and H2 climbs fast, the Company may deliver better than expected earnings. Trading at Rmb31.30 per share, the Company sees its 2014/15/16E PE stands at 9/7/5x. We believe that the Company is the best local brand auto maker and project that 1Q14E will see the low in its growth throughout 2014E. The Company is to launch H8 in Apr as scheduled. If it is well-received in market, sales volume of H8 will open up the space for the Company’s long term growth. To be launched in 2Q14E, H2 will be one of its major sources of profit growth in future. The automatic H6 model will be launched in 2H14E so that its monthly sales volume will increase to 30k units. Given the average valuation level of auto sector and the Company’s earnings growth rate, we believe 14-15x 2014E PE is fair for the Company. Reiterate BUY rating with the target price at Rmb52 per share.
长城汽车 交运设备行业 2012-05-10 15.37 5.30 -- 17.33 12.75%
17.67 14.96%
详细
事项: 我们近日对长城汽车进行了调研,具体情况评论如下: 点评: 公司致力成为SUV行业的领跑者。公司专注于汽车行业,聚焦于SUV领域,在SUV领域精耕细作近10年,致力成为SUV行业的领跑者。公司目前己积累超过50万的SUV用户,占经济型SUV市场份额持续保持在25%以上。一方面,公司凭借不断完善的产品谱系,保持领先的市场份额。今年一季度公司SUV销4.6万辆(+24.0%),明显好于SUV行业11.9%的平均增速。另一方面,依托产品较高的市场认可度,公司产品在全市场类似配置车型中定价最高,保障较高的盈利水平。 公司SUV产品谱系持续丰富,保障领先的市场份额。公司在原有越野型SUV哈弗H3、H5的基础上,于去年底推出公司首款城市型SUV哈弗H6。为了满足市场多样化需求,我们预计公司有望于今年下半年推出H6自动档车型、配备1.5T发动机的H6车型等。预计未来两年,公司仍有H7(比H6大的全尺寸SUV)、H4(比H6略小的紧凑型SUV)等多款SUV车型投放,在现有H6基础上分别向上、向下拓展价格区间,保障公司在SUV领域保持领先的市场份额。 预计H6二季度月销量有望超过1万辆。~季度公司累计销售12.7万辆(+18.3%),其中H6贡献销量2.1万辆,是主要的增长来源。受益于SUV市场空间的快速提升,比亚迪S6等车型并未对H6销量构成实质性影响,预计吉利全球鹰GX7上市的冲击亦有限。目前H6终端需求旺盛,库存水平偏低,据我们调研了解仍需要接近1个月的提车等待周期。预计H6二季度月销量有望超过1万辆,助力公司销量快速增长。预计公司2012年销量接近56万辆(+20.4%)。 受益于天津基地产销规模提升,预计全年盈利能力有望维持高位。天津基地目前主要生产H6和C50,今年一季度产销规模约2.3万辆,根据20万辆的设计产能测算,产能利用率约46.7%,环比去年四季度投产初期的27.9%明显提升。受益于天津基地产能利用率提升,一季度公司综合毛利率为25.5%,环比去年四季度提升1.7个百分点。随着H6、C50的持续推广,预计下半年天津基地月产销规模将接近1.7万辆,产能利用率接近100%,公司全年盈利水平有望维持一季度的较高水平。 风险因素:后续新车型市场接受程度;全球鹰等竞争产品投放造成SUV市场竞争加剧;原材料、人工成本大幅上涨等。 盈利预测、估值及资资评级:考虑受益于天津基地产销规模提升,公司盈利能力维持高位,小幅上调公司2012/13/14年EPS为1.45/1.73/2.00元(公司2011年EPSl.13元,原2012年EPS为1.40元),当前价15.96元,对应2012/13/14年11/9/8倍PE。公司是国内最优秀的自主品牌企业,考虑自主品牌未来潜在的成长空间以及围家产业政策扶持,我们认为公司合理估值为2012年13-15倍PE,目标价20元,维持“买入”评级。
上汽集团 交运设备行业 2012-05-08 14.97 11.52 38.38% 15.15 1.20%
15.15 1.20%
详细
风险因素:合资公司新产品拓展不达预期,导致企业盈利能力下降;自主品牌亏损幅度加大;人工成本、主要原材料价格大幅上涨侵蚀公司盈利等。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级:维持公司2012/13/14年盈利预测为2,11/2.43/2.80元(2011年EPS为1.83元)。当前价16.09元,对应2012/13/14年8/7/6倍PE。公司旗下合资公司市场地位稳固,有望维持较快销量增长和较高盈利水平。我们认为公司合理估值为2012年9-10倍PE,维持公司“买入”评级,目标价19元。
宇通客车 交运设备行业 2012-05-08 13.04 8.01 -- 13.22 1.38%
13.65 4.68%
详细
风险因素:校车相关政策执行力度放缓,导致校车需求低于预期;公司新增产能市场开拓不达预期,导致企业盈利能力下降;原材料价格、人工成本大幅上涨侵蚀企业盈利等。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级:维持公司2012/13/14年EPS预测分别为2,25/2.83/3.45元(暂未考虑股权激励计划实施对EPS的摊薄影响),当前价24.49元,分别对应2012/13/14年11/9/7倍PE。我们测算,若股权激励计划实施,将摊薄公司2012年业绩约10%-15%,短期或将存在一定压力。但公司市场地位稳固,盈利能力出众,分红比率高,同时考虑校车市场的潜在空间,仍看好公司长期增长。我们认为公司合理估值为2012年13-15倍PE,维持公司“买入”评级,目标价32元。
上汽集团 交运设备行业 2012-05-04 14.84 11.52 38.38% 15.21 2.49%
15.21 2.49%
详细
上汽集团一季度净利润56亿元(+6.95%),EPS 0.51元,符合我们预期。 公司旗下合资公司上海大众、上海通用、上汽通用五菱市场地位稳固,一季度上汽集团累计销售汽车114万辆(+8.1%),实现营业收入1240亿元(+13.7%),实现净利润56亿元(+6.95%),EPS 0.51元,符合我们的预期。 预计二季度公司销量和业绩仍将保持稳健增长。 伴随产品结构优化,上海大众盈利能力持续提升。一季度上海大众销量32万辆(+11.5%),其中途观销售4.9万辆(+45.5%),新帕萨特贡献增量6.1万辆,产品结构得到明显优化,上海大众盈利能力持续提升。一季度上汽集团确认对联营企业和合营企业的投资收益35.3亿元,同比大幅增长20.7%,预计丰要来源于上海大众的盈利增长。 公司零部件资产、上海通用盈利增速放缓,预计全年仍将保持稳健增长。 华域汽车一季度净利润8.1亿元(+3.1%),预计受行业增速放缓影响,公司旗下零部件资产业绩增速要略低于整车资产。一季度公司合并口径毛利率为17.g%,同比下降2.5个百分点,预计主要是由于科帕奇、迈锐宝等新车型处于投放初期,导致上海通用盈利增速放缓。预计随着新车犁产销规模提升,上海通用盈利能力将逐渐回升。 受益新产品投放,预计公司销量仍将保持10%左右的较快增长。上海大众受益于次新车型途观、新帕萨特的持续畅销,以及新车型新朗逸的投放,预计将持续保持10%以上的销量增长。上海通用随着科帕奇、迈锐宝等新车上量,上汽通用五菱受益于自动档宝骏630的推出,上汽乘用车寄希望于新上市的荣威950等,预计上汽集团销量仍将保持10%左右的较快增长。 风险因素:合资公司新产品拓展不达预期,导致企业盈利能力下降;自主品牌亏损幅度加大;人工成本、主要原材料价格大幅上涨侵蚀公司盈利等。 盈利预测、估值及投资评级:考虑零部件资产盈利增速放缓,小幅下调公司2012/13/14年盈利预测为2.11/2.43/2.80元(2011年EPS为1.83元,原2012年EPS为2.16元)。当前价15.38元,对应2012/13/14年7/6/5倍PE。 公司旗下合资公司市场地位稳固,有望维持较快销量增长和较高盈利水平。 我们认为公司合理估值为2012年9-10倍PE,维持公司“买入”评级,目标价19元。
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