We expect weak recovery in offline demand A weak demand recovery has followed the industrywide destocking of recent years. The department store channel has remained under pressure. Home textile sales at largeretailers have continued their downward trend YTD, although the declines havenarrowed compared with last year. Historically, growth in home textile industry saleshas been highly correlated to the previous year's property sales growth. Since the startof the year, property sales have rebounded further, with cumulative growth of 34.2%in 5M16. We expect home textile demand from relocations to improve gradually. Good operational quality; clear transformation strategy Luolai has had an earlier rebound in revenue growth than peers and better operationalquality, in addition to faster inventory turnover and healthy cash flow. With destockinglargely completed, the company could be among the first to benefit from a demandrecovery, in our view. The company has completed the acquisition of 12 franchisees aspart of its effort to take direct control of sales outlets. It has also been expanding itshome furnishings offerings. Its brands have opened a combined 100+ home furnishingretail outlets. On the product front, a combination of independent R&D and resourceintegration via acquisitions (eg, acquisition of the ownership of Japanese high-endtowel brand Uchino in China) shows the company's steadfast and clear push fortransformation. Further improving online home furnishing ecosystem On the online strategy side, we think the biggest difference between Luolai and rivals isthat the company has built its own e-commerce brand. With replacement demand forhome textiles rising, consumers prefer more affordable products with lower mark-upsand the online channel is the key to meeting this demand. As an independent ecommercebrand under Luolai, LOVO can help avoid conflicts of online/offline interestand capture these new customers. In addition, as part of its investment-driven pushinto "internet plus" segments, the company has partnered with industry leaders andinvestment agencies to enter the smart bedroom furnishing field, further improving itsonline home furnishings ecosystem. Valuation: Slightly cutting PT to Rmb16.9, Buy rating Given sluggish retail sales in H1 and Luolai's faster-than-expected expense growth, weare lowering our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.63/0.72/0.82. Our new DCF-based PT isRmb16.9 (WACC cut to 9% from 9.2%) and we maintain our Buy rating.

H1 net profit up 48% YoY According to Suofeiya's preliminary earnings estimates for H1, sales revenue wasRmb1,670m (+44.3% YoY), operating profit rose 43.7% YoY, and net profit wasRmb200m (+47.9% YoY). H1 revenue met 37.1% of our full-year forecast (higher thanthe past-three-year average of 35.8%) and net profit met 30.4% of our full-yearforecast (close to the past-three-year average of 29.7%). Fundamentals of wardrobe business remained strong Suofeiya's Q2 revenue growth remained strong at 43.1% but slowed slightly from Q1's46.2%, which we attribute to the high base resulting from the promotions thecompany launched in May of last year. Against the backdrop of robust property sales,overall industry fundamentals were strong. Q2 net profit growth was 48.4% YoY, animprovement from Q1's 46.6% YoY, which we attribute to the improvement in supplychain efficiency due to sustained IT investment and economies of scale driven by rapidgrowth in order volume. We estimate losses on kitchen cabinets did not fallsignificantly, which may be because the first-time installation success rate for theseproducts was low (much lower than that for wardrobes) due to back-end productionissues, weighing on their profit margins. Private placement likely to further improve competitiveness On 24 June, Suofeiya received approval from the CSRC for its private additionalplacement plan. We expect the company soon to complete its first additionalplacement since its listing. The proceeds will be used for the Huazhong productionfacility, information systems, smart production upgrades, and a digital home platform. Given that the company's shares are trading at record levels, we believe the actualdilution will be less than we previously expected. Our earnings estimates assume anoffer price of Rmb35/share for the placement. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating, PT of Rmb66.80 We derive our price target of Rmb66.80 based on DCF (WACC=7.0%).

We expect revenue growth to improve slightly QoQ in Q216. Heilan attended UBS's consumer goods seminar in Hong Kong and shared its recentconditions and development strategies: its retail growth recovered in April 2016compared with Q116, but the rainy days in May caused declines in sales at its streetsidestores. We expect Q216 to have double-digit growth in sales, improving slightlyover Q116. Online business grew 60%+ YTD 2016, and it only accounts for c4% ofHeilan's revenue, indicating considerable growth potential. Channel adjustment basically in place, will continue to be optimized. Heilan adjusted its existing stores in 2015 and closed 300+ stores for poor location,overly small area or difficulty in expansion. Heilan expects net addition in stores to risenotably in 2016. Apart from reinforcing its advantages in tier-3/4 cities, Heilan will alsoenhance its presence at shopping malls. It currently has c100 stores at shopping mallsand department stores, and plans to increase this number to 1,000 in the next threeyears. Heilan also opened c10 stores in partnership with Wanda after their strategicpartnership was established. Though the number is not big, single-store revenuereached cRmb10m in 2015. Launching a more flexible supply chain. As accelerated change in end-market consumers and abnormal weather bring pressureto its long-cycle supply chain, Heilan plans to build a more flexible supply chain to copewith it. Heilan plans to raise its replenishment order ratio to 15% in 2016 from lessthan 10%, and this has been well implemented in its summer products. For example,Heilan procured 20m T-shirts for 2016 summer season, c4.5m of which werepurchased through replenishment orders, which could be completed in about twoweeks if the fabric and accessory stocks are sufficient. Valuation: price target of Rmb17.20, maintain Buy rating. We derive our price target of Rmb17.20 based on UBS's DCF valuation model (WACC8%).

End-market growth slowed in Q216. Semir attended UBS' seminar for consumer goods companies held in Hong Kong, andexpressed that Balabala's sales still sustained 20%+ growth YTD in 2016. However,Semir's summer product sales have been under pressure due to the rainy and coolweather in the past two months, with offline growth slowing to 1-2% from 3-4%. Incontrast, online business maintained high growth of nearly 100%. Semir expects theSemir brand to achieve 7-8% growth in sales revenue this year, thanks to growth inonline business. Rapid growth in Internet business. Semir's advantage in online business continues to be consolidated and scale effect hasbecome increasingly prominent. In 2015, it achieved revenue of Rmb1.2bn from onlinebusiness and cRmb1.8bn from retail sales. Currently it has a team of 800 people fromthe e-commerce business, and profit margin reached high single-digit in 2015 when ecommercefirst gained a profit. We believe the profitability of its online business willcontinue to improve, mainly due to: 1) a higher weighting in new products; 2) scaleeffect of expenses; and 3) more support and allocation of resources to strong brandsfrom the online platform. Inventory and account receivable turnover slowed, but no big worries. Semir's inventory and account receivable both slowed in 2015 and Q116, mainly due toa change in operation model, instead of indicating a drop in operation quality: Semirnow grants higher quota to distributors for the return of goods while retaining moredominance in the allocation of goods. Semir handles inventory through its onlineplatform and doesn't allow distributors to sell inventory online, which transfers someinventory onto its balance sheet and causes a slowdown in inventory turnover. The risein its account receivable turnover days was mainly due to a renewed expansion infranchisees after two years' contraction, and Semir grants them some credit to alleviatetheir working capital pressure. Valuation: price target of Rmb18.2, maintain Buy rating. We derive our price target of Rmb18.2 with the DCF methodology (WACC=7.2%). Maintain Buy rating.

Reform deepening; good momentum sustainable for casual wear After a series of initiatives such as supply chain optimization, rebuilding brands andchannel restructuring, the company's casual wear business' competitiveness hasincreased substantially during the industry down-cycle. We think the company ismoving into the second phase of its revamp amid the ongoing industry reshuffle: 1) apilot fast-response supply chain; and 2) adoption of Amoeba teams for internalreorganization and creating an internal partnership system to incentivise employees. We estimate the casual wear segment will maintain solid growth of close to 10% in2016/17, with offline stores resuming growth and the online channel posting rapidgrowth. Leading kids' wear brand set for continued rapid growth We remain optimistic about the kids' wear market mainly due to consumptionupgrades and relaxation of the one-child policy. In our view, as the largest kids' wearbrand in sales, the company will further gain market share, and the key drivers include:1) store upgrades, with store count and average store space continuing to grow;2) rapid growth of the online channel; and 3) introduction of new brands. We forecastthe kids' wear business to maintain growth of close to 20% in the next two years, withgross profit contribution exceeding 50% by 2017. Profitability likely to improve further We believe with destocking and channel restructuring almost completed, the operatingprofit margin will improve further in the next two years mainly because: 1) a biggershare of the higher-margin kids' wear and e-commerce businesses could drive overallgross margin expansion; and 2) the inventory mix has improved and the ratio ofprovisions for impairment to sales will fall steadily from a relatively high 4% in 2015. Valuation: Rmb18.2 price target; maintain Buy rating Our DCF-based price target of Rmb18.2 assumes WACC of 7.2%. We maintain our Buyrating.

Main brand set to sustain rapid growth. The market has been concerned since Q415 that Heilan's main brand (contributed 84%to revenue in 2015) may face a bottleneck after years of high growth. However, webelieve its main brand is still likely to achieve 20% growth in 2016, mainly as: 1) storeadjustment has almost finished and net store additions in 2016 are notably above thosein 2015; 2) initiatives such as active marketing and introducing designer elements tomake the brand younger and more fashionable could drive up same-store sales growth;and 3) online sales have had sustained high growth. The main brand's growth in theend market improved in April and May compared with Q116 and same-store growthrecovered. We expect full-year earnings growth to be low at first and to gradually rise. Inventory problem likely to ease. We attribute Heilan's rapid inventory rise at end-2015 to a warm winter, which causedslack sales of winter clothes, instead of a worsening trend. As 70% of revenue comesfrom sales on credit, inventory doesn't occupy much of funds. We believe inventorypressure will be eased in 2016, mainly because: 1) it has a healthy inventory mix, with80%+ of inventory within one-year, and cold weather in early 2016 drove up sales ofwinter clothes; and 2) it will control the weighting of future orders while increasing thatof replenishment orders to cope with changes in the market. Its longer-term measureswill enhance support or output management of suppliers with outstanding capital,capacity and design capabilities, and cultivate them to become its core suppliers,thereby improving overall supply chain quality and reaction speed. Likely to push forward M&A to enrich its brand presence. Heilan signed a strategic partnership framework agreement with Huatai UnitedSecurities (HUS) on 18 May, in which HUS will leverage its internal and externalresources to help Heilan seek M&A or cooperation targets in China and overseas, whileproposing a reasonable M&A operation and related capital plan. HUS is ranked No. 1 inM&A approved by regulator CSRC (according to HUS), with ample resources andexperience in M&A. Heilan has cRmb6bn in extra cash and an average dividend rate of60% in the past two years. We believe with this partnership, Heilan could strengthenits main business presence and further optimize its brand mix via M&A. Valuation: Price target of Rmb17.20; maintain Buy. Heilan is trading at 13x forward PE, a 22% discount to its historical average and near itshistorical low. We derive our PT with UBS's DCF model (WACC 8%).

Store openings in less mature regions likely to rise; profit to increase. As a leading company in fresh produce, Yonghui has quickly expanded across thecountry on strong supply chain advantages (direct fresh produce purchases) anddifferentiation and has attracted a lot of customer traffic. We estimate store openingsin less mature regions (outside Fujian and West China; eg, East China and Henan) willrise, with rapid revenue and gross margin growth. We expect same-store sales toresume growth in 2016, helped by higher inflation as of Q116 and completion of thecompany's internal management adjustment. We forecast net profit to grow in 2016because the company has: 1) expanded the scale of joint purchases and integrated thesupply chain; 2) improved stores based on data and created a store experience; and 3)implemented IT-enabled transformation and optimized internal management. O2O helping create new profit growth drivers for Yonghui. We think strategic partner JD.com's investment in Yonghui is positive for their O2Ocooperation on the following fronts: users, information, warehouse logistics, supplychain, e-commerce platform and joint purchases. This is helping create new profitgrowth drivers for the company. The company can quickly build an online presence,seize the e-commerce fresh produce market, increase foot traffic to stores and achieverapid profit growth due to its strong fresh produce purchasing capacity and offlinecustomer traffic; JD's vast online customer base; and supply chain integration. Shangshu Yonghui slow with wet market-to-supermarket switch. Shangshu Yonghui's wet market to supermarket switch could raise traffic on freshsupply chain advantages amid consumption upgrades and changing consumptionhabits in China. However, progress has been slow due to the difficulty of acquiringproperties. We are more cautious about store expansion and profitability, because: 1)Shangshu Yonghui is mainly managed by state-owned assets, with weakermanagement capability than Yonghui; and 2) back-end departments are expanding tooquickly, resulting in higher selling/administrative expense ratios. Shangshu Yonghui hasposted losses in the past two years and we think it is unlikely to be profitable in thenext three years. Valuation: Cutting earnings estimates and PT; maintain Buy. We cut our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.26/0.30/0.34 from Rmb0.28/0.32/0.36 and ourDCF-based PT to Rmb10.6 (WACC 7.7%) from Rmb11.7. We maintain our Buy rating.

一季度净利润同比增长25% 公司2016Q1实现营业收入19.2亿元,同比增长16.2%;实现净利润2.4亿元,同比增长24.5%。得益于童装占比持续上升,毛利率36.9%,同比上升1.3个百分点;整体费用率20.3%,同比上升1.9个百分点,主要是管理费用同比增速较快为21%。公司营业利润同比增长18.7%,由于有效税率从去年同期的28%下降至26%,净利润增速更高。 营收稳健增长,尝试更为弹性的供应链 我们估计Q1童装收入仍然保持20%以上快速增长,休闲服增速接近10%。值得注意的是,公司资产减值损失较去年同比下降19%,我们认为这也反映了公司去库存之后进入较为良性的状况。在营收趋势向好的背景下,公司将尝试更为柔性的供应链,计划从女装产品开始,在今年下半年尝试30%左右快速反应供应链,这部分产品的周期将从订货会模式下8-9个月周期缩短至2个月,并由公司统筹配货、补货。我们认为这将是森马在供应链优化上另一重要举措,从之前的品质改善到现在的快速反应,打造不同类产品的不同优势,以满足消费者的差异化需求。 更多维度利用线上流量 公司电商业务保持快速增速,2015年收入同比增长84%,贡献了20%的收入占比,我们预期这一比重在16年将继续上升。我们认为电商不再是公司去库存的通道,目前一半左右产品是新品。基于供应链的优势,公司将在线上进一步发展优质产品并同社交平台开展合作,以利用更多维度的流量红利。 估值:目标价18.2元,维持“买入”评级 我们使用DCF工具进行现金流贴现(WACC=6.8%),推导目标价18.2元,维持“买入”评级。

竞争优势明显,高成长可期 公司参加了我们在纽约举办的中国A股研讨会。公司认为行业壁垒即公司的优势在于:1)前端网络:公司目前网络覆盖1000多个城市,经销商已经实现了公司化管理,更换率明显低于行业平均;2)后端的大数据处理:公司购入进口设备,自建500多人的IT团队完成关键软件系统的开发,能够将前端的个性化订单转化成后端的批量化生产,并且保证高质、高效。公司预计未来3年业绩将保持30%以上的增长。 产能充裕,信息化再升级 公司目前在全国拥有5大工厂,产能约50亿元,以现有的土地储备可以支持86亿产值的规模。公司未来3年将投入4-5亿元用于新建产能(主要是橱柜)。与此同时,公司还将持续进行IT投入以提升智能化生产程度,不断拉大同竞争对手的差距。得益于前期自动化、信息化建设,公司的单位制造成本从2011年的112元/平米下降至2015年的87元/平米。 促销套餐继续推广 公司去年推出799促销套餐获得成功,今年将在维持促销价格的同时做产品升级,把更好的材质纳入套餐系列,进一步提升产品性价比。公司目前客户结构中35岁以上客户占比一半左右。促销策略的推动下,公司年轻客群明显上升;此外,公司也在今年推出了一些专门针对年轻人的产品线,花型、结构都更为时尚。 估值:维持“买入”评级,目标价60.8元 我们的目标价60.8元基于DCF现金流贴现法(WACC=7.0%)推导得出。

Q3保持强劲增长。 公司前三季度实现销售收入20.7亿元,同比增长35%,净利润2.8亿元,同比增长39%;其中Q3收入9.1亿元,同比增长33%,净利润1.4亿元,同比增长37%,如果剔除由于高新技术企业所得税优惠到期带来的税率变化影响,Q3业绩同比增速达56%,较上半年增速更快,主要得益于毛利率同比改善、管理费用率下降。公司前三季度经营性净现金流5亿元,同比增长51%。我们估计今年由于推出促销套餐拉低了产品均价,客单价增速下降至个位数,但订单量取得了30%左右的强劲增长;成熟同店增速约20%。 持续向数字化企业转型。 公司自上市以来至目前已基本完成全国性工业化布局(拥有5个工厂),相较同行取得了先发优势;我们预计未来5年公司将重点推进智能化、数字化实现第二次转型升级。公司2014年成立“信息与数字化中心”,对IT系统进行升级改造,已体现出积极成果,单位生产成本下降,一次安装成功率改善。我们认为公司优势不仅仅在于先进的生产设备,更重要的壁垒在于信息管理团队、第三方和自主研发相结合的软件系统和重视数字化的企业文化。 围绕公司战略进行投资布局。 公司公告两个投资项目:1)为实施“大家居”战略,通过投资方式实现产业链扩展,公司拟出资3亿元在深圳前海成立投资基金;2)将出资4990万元认购IDG宏流1期基金,主要投资于搜房网融资项目。搜房网是国内房地产交易信息龙头,业务包括新房、二手房销售及出租信息、金融服务。我们认为公司管理层风格稳健,对外投资将考虑和主业的协同,将围绕“互联网+”、大家居或解决行业痛点进行布局,后续也有望和搜房网展开业务上的合作。 估值:维持“买入”评级,目标价50.2元。 我们目标价基于瑞银VCAM工具(WACC=9.2%)进行现金流贴现推导,维持“买入”评级。

地产建筑周期不改长期成长逻辑 公司和韩国汉森作为本土定制家具领导品牌均体现出穿越周期的特点。二者的零售业务优于地产建设活动表现,消费者向品牌家具消费转移、房屋翻新家具需求上升成为长期成长逻辑。中国定制家具近5年才开始明显发展,仍处于成长早期。在目前大多数消费品在一线城市的增速明显低于各自所处行业的平均水平情况下,公司2015年一线城市的订单增速仍能达到30-40%的水平。 索菲亚与韩国汉森的成长路径表现出相似之处 作为更为成熟的公司,汉森滚动PE从2011年的个位数攀升至目前37x左右,其背后的驱动因素可能对公司存在借鉴意义。我们发现二者发展路径相似点在于:1)品类扩张:汉森从橱柜扩展到室内家具再到家居、软装;索菲亚从衣柜扩展到其他柜类、橱柜再到第三方家居品。2)切入线上:2014年汉森线上业务占比达7.5%;公司2014年积极布局线上,和相关电商网站结成战略合作。3)提升性价比扩大市占率:汉森推出低端橱柜品牌IK成为重要增长点;索菲亚15年推出高性价比促销套餐,抢占二线品牌份额并对店内其他产品形成导流。 财务结构稳健、激励机制完善 高成长同时,公司具备良好现金再生能力,过去5年经营现金流/净利润之比均在1以上。公司14年净现金/权益比为56%,上市以来保持年均45%股利分配率。公司注重利益共享, 继13年股权激励后,在15年推出员工和经销商持股计划;其中前者已于9月完成股票购买(价格28.6元/股),锁定期一年。 估值:维持“买入”评级,上调目标价至50.2元 鉴于公司推出衣柜中低价位套餐使得营收增长超预期,数字化升级使得毛利率稳中有升,我们分别上调15/16/17年EPS 1%/2%/9%,并上调目标价至50.2元。目标价基于瑞银VCAM工具(WACC9.2%)推导得出。

价值链重塑打造平价 公司作为国内名列前茅的男装品牌,致力于提供“高品质,中价位”的高性价比男装。产品低倍率的同时,却可获得近20%净利润率。我们认为其核心来自于价值链效率改善:1)深度合作型供应链下的规模优势以及低存货风险(公司同供应商联合开发产品,给予其较高毛利率,公司可在两个销售季后选择退还剩余货品);2)公司采取“类直营”的扁平零售模式,吸纳加盟商作为财务投资者,保留对门店的管理权。我们认为具备强大的终端零售能力是公司区别于众多竞争对手的重要优势。 有望可持续稳健成长 公司在09-14年实现了年均55%的收入增长以及50%的利润增长(2014年有并表因素)。我们认为公司未来三年仍有望可持续稳健成长,驱动来自于1)公司加大华东之外以及二线城市的门店扩张,并提升单店面积;2)店效提升:公司平效从2009年的1.6万元上升至2014年的3万元以上,我们认为性价比继续改善、积极的营销投入以及渠道优化将有助于平效继续提升;3)电商渠道快速增长。公司于2015年8月推出员工持股计划,404名(包括8名董事、监事和高管)员工出资1.5亿元,以15.2元/股的均价完成购买。 借助上下游资金扩张 公司2014年ROE为46%,明显高于本土竞争对手,一方面是由于更高的运营效率带来的高ROA,另一方面则是来自于高应付账款的杠杆经营效应。公司的赊销(主要货款在实现终端销售后才支付)和类直营模式(及时回款)使得自有投入运营资本有限。但如果供应商要求缩短应付周期,而公司存货周转又无法有效改善,则将给公司现金流带来压力。 估值:首次覆盖给予“买入”评级,目标价19.8元 我们的2015-17E EPS为0.70/0.91/1.15元。基于瑞银VCAM模型进行现金流贴现(WACC为9.3%)推导得出目标价19.8元,对应2015-17年市盈率28/22/17倍。我们预计公司将基于良好的零售能力、规模优势、品牌形象升级,实现可持续成长,给予“买入”评级。

双品牌均保持稳健增长。 继去年下半年出现拐点后,公司休闲服业务保持良好的改善趋势,上半年收入同比增长10%,我们预计三季度增速将继续环比改善。经历了近三年的渠道调整后,公司2015年休闲服营业面积首次出现同比正增长,而竞争品牌仍多处于净关店的状态。公司预计到2015年底,休闲服营业面积约将增加10%;童装品牌仍将保持近20%的营业面积增长。我们认为这些新增面积将驱动2016年收入增速继续提升。在公司2016年春季订货会上,森马品牌订货额同比增长15%,童装订货额仍然保持20%以上的快速增长。 加大互联网品牌投入。 由于较强的品牌影响力和电商平台方的资源倾斜,公司电商业务保持快速增长,我们预计今年收入将保持翻倍增长,对总收入贡献12%左右。公司前期公告拟建立电商童装品牌马卡乐,旨在利用已有的设计和供应链优势,打造高品质、低倍率、多品类的儿童品牌。和以往品牌运作关键不同在于,管理团队持有该品牌股份,具备更充分的激励。我们预计休闲服也将采取类似的思路,采取合伙人制度推进纯电商品牌的建设,并将适当引入外部资源。 行业资源或向龙头企业集中。 我们认为随着服装业结束粗放式外延增长时代,进入调整洗牌期,强者愈强的逻辑将得到强化,资源或将向龙头公司集中。从森马休闲服这两年触底回升的表现来看,我们认为资源倾斜体现在:1)供应链:国际级别的供应商选择和公司合作;2)代理商:出现其他品牌代理商转而寻求代理公司品牌;3)优质渠道:竞品持续关店空出了一些位置较好的门店资源,使得公司能以一定的租金折扣进入;4)电商平台:大型电商平台会重视同龙头企业的合作,公司通常能够得到优惠的贸易条款和资源倾斜。 估值:目标价40元,维持“买入”评级。 我们基于瑞银VCAM工具进行现金流贴现(WACC8.8%),推导得出目标价40元,维持“买入”评级。

率先降价抢占市场。 公司今年推出 “799元每平方米”、“899每平方米”定制衣柜促销套餐,价格接近于二线品牌,相当于以前定价的6-7折。突出的性价比使得公司该类套餐销售大幅增长,目前已占到国内衣柜销量的4成左右。我们认为,这一方面吸引到对价格更为敏感的新客户群,利于公司抢占市场份额,更重要的是为门店其他产品提供导流,形成连带销售。目前仅有50%的经销商参与该类套餐销售,我们预计随着进一步推广,该类套餐在明年仍将对公司销售产生重要增量。 信息化生产提升效率。 尽管公司开展了激进的促销(出厂价下调10%左右),但毛利率仍保持稳定(20151H同比微幅提升),我们认为这得益于公司一直以来的信息化投入。公司去年重点对IT系统做了一系列升级改造,提升自动化水平、降低人工介入,改善板材利用率以及降低出错率,从而有效降低生产成本。公司还将开展智能车间的项目研究,在不增加任何设备的情况下提升产能。 衣柜、橱柜业务或形成销售协同。 索菲亚目前已开设橱柜门店200多家,且公司预计明年底将开到600家。橱柜的客单价2-2.5万,高于原衣柜业务。一些发达城市如北京、上海、广州等地经销商已实现盈亏平衡。除了司米品牌自身的推广,索菲亚门店由于品牌影响力以及人流量较大也为司米橱柜提供导流(比如同时购买衣柜和橱柜可以享有一定折扣);长期来看,橱柜业务由于接触消费者更早,对于衣柜业务的带单效应或将更为明显。 估值:维持“买入”评级,目标价48.3元。 我们的目标价基于瑞银VCAM工具(WACC=9.2%)进行现金流贴现推导得出。

上半年净利润同比增长23%,现金流同比改善。 公司2015上半年实现营业收入33.69亿元,同比增长14.9%,净利润4.23亿元,同比增长22.9%。整体毛利率37.3%,同比提升1个百分点,整体费用率同比基本持平。经营活动产生现金流2.79亿元,同比增长130%,主要是应收账款较期初大幅减少,我们认为这可能反映加盟商盈利改善,现金流压力缓解。公司Q2营收同比增长16.2%,营业利润同比增长28.9%,归母净利润同比增长23.8%,均较Q1出现加速;Q2毛利率同比提升3个百分点。公司中期利润分配预案为每10股以资本公积金转增10股。 休闲服业务恢复良好。 我们一直强调公司休闲服业务拐点后的恢复可能超预期,我们认为Q2营收加速增长验证了我们的观点。得益于供应链、品牌和渠道优化,公司休闲服业务上半年营收同比增长10.3%,较去年4.7%的增速出现加速增长。公司继续零售渠道调整,关闭和整合面积较小以及盈利较差的门店,新增标准化的、位置更佳、面积较大的门店,我们估计上半年营业面积较年初增加7-8%。 童装业务稳健增长。 公司上半年童装业务保持快速增长,同比增速为21.6%,占整体营收比重提升至42%,毛利润比重达49%。我们估计主品牌巴拉巴拉仍持续巩固市场优势地位,营业面积较年初增长10%左右。同时,我们认为公司童装业务对于电商渠道的布局也将更为积极。公司公告拟与公司部分员工共同投资设立童装品牌马卡乐,公司以现金出资1260万元持股63%,该品牌核心管理团队以及公司部分员工将共同持股37%。新品牌将充分利用公司在儿童服饰领域设计和供应链的优势,以电商为主要零售运营模式。 估值:目标价40元,维持“买入”评级。 我们基于瑞银VCAM工具进行现金流贴现(WACC8.8%),推导目标价40元,维持“买入”评级。