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万华化学 基础化工业 2019-12-06 49.06 53.20 2.41% 53.29 8.62% -- 53.29 8.62% -- 详细
成本优势有望维持,MDI 价格有望改善,维持买入评级我们认为市场低估了万华相比同行业竞争者的潜在成本优势,因此本文我们重点对其进行解析。我们预计万华二苯基亚甲基二异氰酸酯(MDI)单吨成本比竞争者有约2000 元的成本优势,主要来自于煤气化、低折旧、低三费比率、和园区配套等。同时,我们预计2020 年国内MDI 基本面也有望企稳改善,并将2020/21E MDI 价格预测相应提高300/500 元/吨,同时将2020 和2021 年的盈利预测上调4%,并将目标价提升至57.9 元,维持买入评级。 煤制氢气、园区配套电和蒸汽,大幅降低了万华MDI 生产成本万华MDI 合成过程使用到的氢气均是自产氢气,原材料为煤。而其他国内生产商则主要用天然气制氢。我们测算万华在氢气上相比竞争对手的成本优势为8.3 亿元,单吨节省420 元/吨。另外,万华MDI 生产园区均配套锅炉和自备电厂,以煤炭为原料自供蒸汽和发电,而其他上海的竞争者都要购买园区的蒸汽和电。自备蒸汽和电给公司MDI 生产成本节约533 元/吨。此外,MDI生产过程中需要氯碱,万华八角园区自产氯碱。其他上海生产商需要从园区购买氯碱。这部分优势影响取决于国内氯碱价格情况。 MDI 项目投资折旧低,公司三费比率持续下降万华宁波和八角园区采用自主研发的全球先进工艺。万华MDI 项目投资比竞争对手低,例如万华宁波二期投资24 亿元,产能30 万吨,吨投资额8000元(低于其他企业1.4-2 万/吨的投资)。未来万华的投资优势将更加明显。 万华自2015 年起每年三费比率都在不断下降,从18%降低至2019 年前三季度的8%,且和行业中的其他龙头生产厂商比具有一定的优势。万华宁波正在申请高新技术企业认定,如果被认定,将享受较低税率。与在海外项目比,万华的优势还体现在低材料成本、低劳动力成本和低资本投入。 估值:目标价上调至57.9 元/股,维持买入评级由于我们上调了未来几年的盈利预测,我们的目标价从53.2 元上调为57.9元,基于DCF 法得出,WACC 采用7.3%,维持买入评级。
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广汽集团 交运设备行业 2019-11-29 11.70 13.90 18.70% 12.06 3.08% -- 12.06 3.08% -- 详细
新车型在广州车展上首次亮相广汽在广州车展组织了一场管理层见面会,有 10位高管参加,展示了一系列主要新车型。我们认为公司拥有车企中最强的产品线,所以 2020年业绩增强前景最为明朗。我们基于 13倍 2020年预测市盈率将目标价从 13.2元上调至13.9元。维持买入评级。 皓影和威兰达广汽本田将在今年底推出 SUV 皓影,这是东风本田 CR-V 的姊妹车型,而后者是中国最畅销的合资品牌 SUV 之一,今年初以来月均销量 1.7万辆。广汽丰田将在 2020年初推出威兰达,即一汽丰田新 RAV4的孪生车型。 RAV4过去两年月均销量为 1.2万辆,新 RAV4则升级了引擎和外饰。这两款车型的定位都是高利润产品,我们预计月销量将超 1万辆。 推出新 GS4广汽传祺基于 GPMA 架构推出了第二代 GS4SUV。在 2019年 GS4的周期末端去库存阶段,月均销量仅为 8000辆,远低于之前逾 2万辆的水平。管理层预计第二代 GS4月销量将达到 1.5万辆,而且在平台化策略下,其成本将比第一代 GS4下降 5%。今年初以来传祺已在经销商渠道中清理 6万辆库存,接近两个月的持有量。我们认为 2020年其产量和批发销量有望反弹,从而大幅降低子公司亏损。 估值:目标价由 13.2元上调到 13.9元,维持买入广汽目前股价对应 11倍 2020年预测市盈率。我们略微上调了 2020-21年业绩预期,基于新车型的预测贡献上升。我们的新目标价为 13.9元,基于 13倍 2020年预测市盈率(此前为 12.8倍),以体现利润增速的上行周期。
海大集团 农林牧渔类行业 2017-02-27 15.36 19.05 -- 16.60 8.07%
17.85 16.21%
详细
2016 earnings slightly missed expectations Haid announced preliminary earnings for 2016: revenue was Rmb27.19bn (+6.3%YoY); net profit attributable to the parent was Rmb880m (+12.5% YoY), 9.5%/5.6%lower than consensus/our expectations. Q416 revenue fell 9.5% YoY, mainly due tothe decline in the agricultural trade business, despite livestock/poultry feed salesmaintaining double-digit growth, according to our estimates. Given the arrival of theoff-season for high-margin aquatic feed sales, the company incurred a slight loss in Q416 (its net profit ranged from -Rmb1.2k to +Rmb50m in Q4 of the past five years). Feed growth set to quicken in 2017-18 as industry recovers/consolidates fasterHaid's 2016 feed sales outperformed industry growth despite unfavourable factors suchas natural disasters and declines in livestock/poultry inventories. We attribute theoutperformance to the broad-based improvement in the company's overallcompetitiveness (better product technology, marketing services and cost control). Inview of the industry's cyclical recovery and faster consolidation, we forecast thecompany to post faster feed sales growth of 29%/21% YoY in 2017-18: 1) we expectsow inventories and pig feed demand to pick up, driven by farming profits remainingabove a reasonable level despite falling pig prices in 2017; 2) in the absence of extremeweather conditions, we expect domestic aquatic feed to recover from the trough thisyear, with the overseas business continuing strong growth; 3) as farming shifts towardslarger-scale, large companies with superior products and technical services are set tograb market share more quickly. H7N9 outbreak may cause short-term negative impact, but a limited one Since Dec 2016, the H7N9 outbreak in China has become more severe, forcing manycities to close their live poultry markets and hitting the consumption of chicken meat.We believe the outbreak will have a short-term negative impact on Haid's poultry feedbusiness, but the impact will be limited: 1) we estimate feed for yellow-featheredbroilers and laying hens, which is likely to be greatly affected, contributed ~13%/8% oftotal revenue/gross profit in 2016; 2) according to the National Health and FamilyPlanning Commission's data for 2014-16, cases of H7N9 infections decreaseddramatically as temperatures became warmer after March. Valuation: Buy rating; price target of Rmb19.80 Our DCF-based price target of Rmb19.80 (WACC 7.5%) implies 23.6x 2017E PE. Wemaintain our Buy rating.
贵州茅台 食品饮料行业 2017-02-27 362.49 402.00 -- 396.50 9.38%
456.48 25.93%
详细
Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Moutai reported its sales/net profit will grow 24%/16% YoY in Q117, in line withUBS-Se. It continues to suffer the hiked consumption tax base in Q117 (refer to Will anincrease in consumption tax base continue to be a concern in 2017-18) and we gaugea 7ppt GPM contraction YoY (assume the base is the statutory upper limit of 70%). Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results? A: We expect Moutai liquor's actual delivery volume to increase 10-15% YoY in Q117. Its accelerated top-line growth at around 25% YoY in the past 2 quarters reinforces ourview that Moutai's high unearned revenue should start to be gradually reflected inhigher sales growth. Its net margin will narrow by only 3ppt YoY in Q117, implying abig decline in opex ratio (better operating leverage). Q: Has the company's outlook/guidance changed? A: No.Q: How would we expect investors to react?A: We think investors could react positively to Moutai's better-than-market-expectedYoY sales growth.
网宿科技 通信及通信设备 2017-02-23 16.67 26.41 185.51% 54.89 9.21%
18.21 9.24%
详细
To acquire CDNetworks & CDN-Video in cash. Wangsu announced a major asset restructuring plan, under which it will acquire in cash97.82% of Korean CDN service provider CDNetwoks’ outstanding shares (or 84.9% ofCDNetworks’ total equity) and a 70% stake in CDN-Video. The acquisitionconsideration for CDNetworks/CDN-Video amounts to ~Rmb1.275bn/51.63m. As of 30Sept 2016, Wangsu had over Rmb5bn cash and cash equivalents. CDNetworks is a global CDN service provider. According to Wangsu’s announcement, CDNetworks was established in 2000 andmainly provides CDN services and DDoS protection services. It has the biggest marketshare among Korea’s CDN service providers and is ranked among the top three CDNservice providers in Japan. As of end-2016, the company had over 180 nodes globally,covering 98 cities in 49 countries and serving around 1,300 clients. CDN-Video is aRussian CDN service provider, with 30 nodes and 400 plus clients. In 2015,CDNetworks posted revenue of Rmb618m and net profit of Rmb23.43m. An important step towards globalization. We believe the acquisition, if approved, 1) will greatly enrich Wangsu’s overseas noderesources while helping the company set up more globalized operation and salesteams. It should also increase the company’s brand recognition overseas, facilitatingfaster and more effective overseas expansion; and 2) will enable both parties topromote their competitive products leveraging each other’s resources and channels. Forexample, CDNetworks’ global video conference system can be integrated intoWangsu’s product lines, while Wangsu’s live streaming service-related products can besold to Korean and Japanese clients. Valuation: maintain Buy rating. As the restructuring plan is still pending shareholders’ approval and approvals fromrelevant regulators, we leave our earnings estimates unchanged for now. We maintainour Buy rating and DCF-based price target of Rmb80.00 (WACC = 7.3%).
广电运通 计算机行业 2017-02-22 13.20 11.36 33.96% 13.37 1.29%
13.48 2.12%
详细
Will acquire 25% stake in Aebell to enter video surveillance business On Feb 21, GRG announced plans to acquire a 25% stake in Aebell, a New ThirdBoard-listed video surveillance technology vendor, for Rmb48m. Aebell reportedRmb156m of revenue and Rmb11m of earnings in 2015. GRG states that theinvestment will enhance its position in the security industry. GRG already has a largearmed escort business, and we believe adding video surveillance fits its long-termstrategy. Wins equipment contract from ICBC for the first time On Feb 18, GRG announced winning two cash sorter bids from ICBC. The officialcontract will be signed later. This is the first time GRG has won any equipment contractfrom ICBC; it has already built partnerships with almost all other large-scale commercialbanks in China. The value of the cash sorter contracts has not yet been disclosed, butwe view it as a positive sign that demonstrates GRG's market leadership. Hardware and IT service businesses developing neck and neck The two positive announcements underscore our point that GRG's two business lines,financial equipment (mainly ATMs) and IT service, both have good growth potential. Although ATM market growth has decelerated, GRG continues to gain market share. Meanwhile, it is actively expanding into software and IT service sector through strategicinvestment and acquisitions. Valuation: maintain Buy, PT Rmb18.00 The stock trades at 16.5x/14.1x 2017E/2018E P/E, significant discounts compared tothe A-share IT peer group average. We believe the market has underestimated thecompany's growth perspective in the long run. Our price target of Rmb18.00 is derivedfrom DCF assuming WACC of 8.1% and implies 22.6x 2017E P/E. Maintain Buy.
索菲亚 综合类 2017-02-21 28.26 32.03 83.97% 69.53 21.88%
38.52 36.31%
详细
Q4 earnings growth slowed slightly Suofeiya announced 2016 preliminary results, with revenue of Rmb4.52bn (+42% YoY)and net profit attributable to the parent of Rmb660m (+44% YoY), in line with ourestimates but slightly missing consensus. Q4 revenue grew 39% YoY while Q4 netprofit attributable to the parent grew 40% YoY, decelerating from Q3, mainly onbigger-than-expected losses from the Schmidt kitchen cabinet business. Schmidt: Sales ramping up, N-T losses do not impair growth prospects Schmidt generated revenue of Rmb420m, beating the company's earlier target. However, losses from this business also exceeded the company's estimate (~Rmb55mloss booked in consolidated financials), mainly as: 1) aiming to seize market share, thecompany cut ex-factory prices in 2016 to offer better value, effectively driving endmarketsales; while 2) year-end employee incentives and its 2017 talent pipeline causedpersonnel expenses to grow quickly. Channel development accelerated as dealers'confidence strengthened; nearly 600 stores now sell Schmidt kitchen cabinets, and thecompany plans to reach a higher-than-expected 1,000 stores by year-end. Schmidt islikely to break even in 2017, in our view. Wardrobes: Solid operational quality With rising cost pressure on all fronts, maintaining fast earnings growth off a high basewas no easy task for its wardrobe business. The company offset increases in certain rawmaterial prices through cost control efforts and efficiency improvements, resulting inonly a minor hit to gross margin. It also continued to raise the density of sales outlets intier 1/2 cities while developing stores in tier 4/5 cities. In addition, the company drovecontinuous growth in average transaction value (ATV) through enriching its productline. Revenue growth slowed slightly in Q4, which we mainly attribute to end-marketservice bottlenecks in the peak sales season. Valuation: Maintain Buy, Rmb66.8 price target We derive our Rmb66.8 price target using DCF (WACC 7.0%).
宁沪高速 公路港口航运行业 2017-02-21 8.86 10.05 -- 9.20 3.84%
9.97 12.53%
详细
Strong Jan traffic growth, small revenue decline, strong Feb revenue rebound The company announced strong Jan. traffic growth (accelerating vs. Dec), includingShanghai-Nanjing Expressway (SNE) +27% YoY (10% in Dec), Ningchang/ZhenliExpressways +56%/+32% YoY (23%/24% YoY in Dec) and Guangjing/XichengExpressways +24%/+17% (10%/12% YoY in Dec). We attribute the strong Jan trafficgrowth to an earlier Chinese New Year (28 Jan 2017 vs. 8 Feb 2016), as passengertraffic used to be strong before Chinese New Year. Despite strong traffic growth in Jan,SNE's Jan toll revenue growth slowed to a 1-2% YoY decline (+9% YoY in Dec), as 5days (16% of the whole Jan) were toll free for 7-seaters and below in Jan 2017. However, we expect SNE's Feb toll revenue growth to accelerate to >20% YoY, withthe impact of the toll-free policy reverses, on top of healthy organic growth. Jan truck traffic growth remained positive despite Chinese New Year SNE's Jan traffic for Class 4-5 vehicles (>10t) recorded 10% YoY growth, deceleratingfrom 30% YoY in Dec. According to management, truck traffic growth remainedpositive in Jan, although it slowed from around 10% YoY in Nov/Dec We believepositive truck traffic growth in Jan is already encouraging, as there used to be fewtrucks travelling around the time of Chinese New Year. We remain confident in asustained truck recovery due to strict overloading control of trucks, strong heavy-dutytruck sales and improved infrastructure construction activity. Most defensive toll road operator; upside to consensus 2017 EPS estimate Our 2016/17 EPS estimates are 4%/9% above the consensus average estimate. Webelieve consensus earnings upgrades are likely in the next few months, to factor inpotentially better-than-expected truck traffic growth. We continue to view JSE as themost defensive listed toll-road operator, as it has historically not cut its DPS, even whenexperiencing EPS declines in 2004-05. We forecast the dividend payout ratio to stay at70-80%, with no YoY DPS decline in the future, due to its strong cash flow-generatingability. Valuation: Maintain Buy; PT of Rmb11.50 Our DCF-based price target of Rmb11.50 assumes WACC of 6.2%.
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天士力 医药生物 2016-12-29 41.50 38.64 157.94% 41.59 0.22%
41.59 0.22%
详细
Good results reported for Dantonic's phase III FDA clinical trial Tasly has finalised the report for the phase III US clinical trial of its key product,Dantonic. The report shows the results of the phase III trial are good, which is in linewith our expectations (see Dantonic Capsule phase III results highly anticipated;overseas sales could exceed US$1bn). For the primary outcome measure (a primary datapoint for FDA approval), Dantonic was able to significantly lengthen the total exerciseduration of angina patients running on a flat surface. A positive dose-responserelationship was also noted. For the secondary outcome measures, the total amount ofnitroglycerin per fortnight and the frequency of angina attacks per fortnight werereduced. The phase III trial results confirm Dantonic's efficacy and safety for treatingangina pectoris. Dantonic's annual overseas sales could reach US$1bn if approved by FDA Ranexa is the only angina drug to receive FDA approval in 20years, and annual sales ofthe drug have reached US$700m. We believe the number of patients eligible fortreatment with Dantonic could be a few times that of Ranexa due to its milder sideeffects.With reasonable pricing, Dantonic's annual overseas sales for the anginaindication alone could peak at US$1bn, which we estimate implies a new drug value ofRmb15.8bn. We expect the good phase III clinical trial results to also boost Dantonic'ssales in the domestic market. Dantonic's phase III results a milestone for Tasly and the TCM sector Dantonic is the world's first compound TCM preparation to have completed the phaseIII US FDA clinical trial, which is a large-scale, randomised, double-blind trial involvingmultiple international centres. The good trial results are an important milestone for theTCM sector. Tasly has submitted a new drug application (NDA) to the FDA. We expectthe approval process to take about 10months and finish by the end of next year. TheFDA's approval, if granted, would open up a new era for TCM modernisation. Valuation: Rmb56.42price target; maintain Buy rating Our price target of Rmb56.42is based on DCF (6.4% WACC) and NPV. We maintainour Buy rating.
苏泊尔 家用电器行业 2016-12-29 34.22 32.73 -- 35.94 5.03%
41.05 19.96%
详细
Co.'s domestic sales to grow slower than we expected on softer GDP growth UBS economists see China's GDP growth falling to 6.4% in 2017, while growth inconsumption may slow to 7.2% (2016E: 8.0%). Additionally, Supor's number of brickand-mortar lifestyle stores now stands at 1,000+, lower than we expected. On balance,we think Supor's domestic sales will slightly undershoot our previous estimate. Exports to benefit from recovering SEB sales in N. America + RMB depreciation Supor's export revenue declined in H116 because sales of SEB declined in NorthAmerica. However, SEB's Q3 sales data point to a recovery in the North Americanmarket, with sales up 1.4% on a like-for-like basis, and we expect things to keepimproving next year. Meanwhile, RMB depreciation has continued during the past twomonths, which we think is having a positive impact on the company's export growth.Finally, our previous forecasts did not consider potential export growth driven by SEB'sacquisitions of WMF and EMSA this year. Given these factors, we are lifting ourforecast for Supor's export growth in 2017 to 8.2% from 4.8%. Limited gross margin impact from higher raw material and transport costs Raw material prices and transport costs have risen substantially YTD, and this trend maycontinue into next year. We expect most of these production cost increases to bepassed on to its customers, given Supor's strong pricing power as a leading player insmall appliances and cookware. Even so, we are slightly lowering our overall grossmargin assumptions to reflect lower domestic sales growth and higher export growthestimates, as exports have a lower gross margin. Valuation: Lowering EPS forecasts and PT; maintain Buy rating We are trimming our 2017/18E EPS to Rmb2.02/2.36 from Rmb2.08/2.49, while ourDCF-based PT falls to Rmb45.05 from Rmb49.33 on a higher WACC (to 7.7% from7.3%). We remain confident that Supor will continue posting rapid growth in the nextseveral years; in addition, current valuation appears undemanding. Therefore, wemaintain our Buy rating.
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长城汽车 交运设备行业 2016-12-26 10.72 12.47 40.11% 11.51 7.37%
13.32 24.25%
详细
Upgrading to Buy on better-than-expected sales momentum The market appears too bearish on Great Wall's 2017/18E earnings growth, whereaswe think Great Wall's recent strong sales momentum is likely to persist in 2017due toongoing fast growth in the SUV market and improving sales of the H6Coupe/H7.Meanwhile, we believe localized transmission production and further increases inoverall utilization could offset some of the impact of declining prices. Our 2016/17/18Eearnings are 4%/3%/6% above consensus. With this in mind, we are upgrading ourrating to Buy from Neutral. No need to be too bearish, given healthy SUV sector growth We don't believe the high-growth story of China's SUV sector is over and we forecastSUV sales to rise 20% YoY in 2017. As a result, we expect Great Wall to enjoy doubledigitsales growth of 13% during 2017due to its strong reputation and new productlaunches (H7, H2S and the new H6). Meanwhile, we forecast Great Wall's gross margin(GM) to only slightly decline to 24.3% in 2017from 25.2% in 2015, given: 1) increasesin the overall utilization rate; 2) a better product mix, with more H6, H7and manumaticmodels being sold; and 3) adoption of self-made dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs),which could lower production costs and offset some pricing pressure. WEY creates additional upside potential for earnings WEY is positioned in the Rmb150k-200k SUV segment. This segment has a market sizeof ~1.2m units in 2016but is dominated by small/entry-level compact SUVs from JVbrands, with domestic brands holding little market share. As mid-size/compact SUVs,the W01/W02offer higher-end configurations and roomier interiors, which leads us tothink WEY could achieve sales of 8k units per month by end-2017. In addition, with theexisting base of 2.8m Haval SUV owners, WEY could benefit from replacement demandfrom loyal Great Wall customers. Valuation: Upgrading to Buy; lifting PT to Rmb13.5from Rmb11.7 Considering better-than-expected sales and potential growth driven by the WEY brand,we are lifting our 2016-18E earnings and long-term assumptions (terminal ROIC to7.3% from 6.4%). Accordingly, we are raising our DCF-based PT to Rmb13.5, implying11.2x 2017E PE, in line with the sector average.
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华夏幸福 房地产业 2016-12-26 24.19 29.29 6.51% 24.82 2.60%
28.39 17.36%
详细
New regulation to enhance control on B-H border and property market Recently, seven ministries, including the National Development and ReformCommission, jointly issued Guidelines on Strengthening Management on Planning andConstruction at the Beijing-Hebei Bordering Area. The new regulation requires theprovincial government to compile overall and special plannings on behalf of relatedcounties (or cities, districts), and enhance coordination with the planning on Beijing's"subsidiary centre" and new airport economic zone, in order to efficiently use land,strictly control access to the industry and real estate development, enhance regulationon the property market and control population. Negative for CFLD's property business in ST; positive for industrial park in LT There are three major areas surrounding Beijing which have bright prospects: Beijing's"subsidiary centre" in the east, the second airport area in the south and the WinterOlympic Game area in the northwest. The company's major projects are located inthese three areas. Housing prices have been rising rapidly in these three areas in recentyears, and many small developers have rushed in to buy land there. However, their levelof planning is not so high, missing the three areas' high positioning. We believe thecompany's real estate projects located in the three areas may see a delay in progress inthe short term, but in the long term, we believe the high-standard area planning shouldhelp attract corporate investments and benefit the company's industrial park business.Company president's extra holding of Rmb10.25m indicates strong confidenceOn 21 Dec, the company's president, Mr. Meng Jing, bought 426,000 shares of thecompany's stock at Rmb24.08/share, totalling Rmb10.25m. Mr. Meng has been servingthe company for many years and been promoted all the way up to president of thecompany. We believe his extra holding indicates his confidence in the company'sdevelopment. Valuation: maintain Buy rating, lower price target to Rmb32.00 We maintain our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb2.35/2.72/3.04. Given that valuations in the realestate and industrial park industries have been moving downward, we lower our pricetarget to Rmb32.00 based on 9x 2017E PE (previously 10x) for its real estate businessand 18x 2017E PE (previously 20x) for its industrial park business. We are still optimisticabout the prospects of the company's real estate and industrial park development inBeijing‘s peripheral area. Maintain Buy rating.
尔康制药 医药生物 2016-12-19 12.55 17.69 222.22% 13.84 10.28%
14.22 13.31%
详细
Cutting mid-term ROIC by 5pptWe believe quality-consistency evaluations will affect the progress of Er-Kang's starchcapsules in capturing share from traditional gelatin capsules. The auxiliary materials andtechnologies used to make preparations, including the type of capsule used, can impactwhether a pharmaceutical preparation is able to pass quality-consistency evaluations. With this in mind, we think drug makers may avoid switching to this new product,instead preferring to conservatively stick with the gelatin capsules that have been inwidespread use for over 50 years. We therefore estimate that replacement of gelatincapsules with Er-Kang's starch capsules may lose momentum in China, which leads usto cut our mid-term ROIC by 5ppt and lower our PT to Rmb17.84. Controlling shareholder to trim stake by up to 9.66% of outstanding sharesOn 7 December, the company announced that Mr. Fangwen Shuai (its controllingshareholder and effective controller) and Ms. Zaiyun Cao, who acts in concert with Mr. Shuai, plan to trim their stake in the company by no more than 9.66% of totaloutstanding shares, bringing their combined stake to 36.83%, with the action to becompleted within six months of 12 December. We remain optimistic on long-term potential of starch capsulesEr-kang's starch capsule series posted revenue of Rmb683m in H116, up 161.09%YoY. We are positive on the use of starch capsules in the pharmaceutical and foodsectors, given starch capsules' advantages over gelatin capsules (better safety andstability) and our view that replacement of gelatin capsules with starch capsules is along-term trend. Moreover, Er-Kang is the world's only company to have successfullycommercialised starch capsules, and we expect the company will leverage its starchcapsules to gradually expand into the downstream capsule drug preparation market. Valuation: Lowering PT to Rmb17.84; maintain Buy ratingWe are lowering our DCF-derived PT by 9.1% to Rmb17.84 (WACC 7.9%), implying35x 2017E PE, while our Buy rating remains unchanged.
网宿科技 通信及通信设备 2016-12-19 53.52 28.23 205.19% 56.17 4.95%
56.17 4.95%
详细
Acquiring Green Star Cloud and Eco-atlasWangsu announced it will acquire a 100% stake in Green Star Clound (GSC) and a30% stake in Eco-atlas for Rmb12.4m and Rmb9m, respectively. Upon completion, thiswill make GSC and Eco-atlas Wangsu's wholly-owned subsidiaries. In 9M16, GSC/Ecoatlasposted revenue of Rmb510k/1.20m, with losses of Rmb2.20m/1.78m. Acquisitionand consolidation of the two should have a limited impact on Wangsu, in our view, asit already holds a 70% stake in Eco-atlas. Cloud computing may become a new area into which Wangsu expandsNotably, GSC provides public, private and hybrid cloud solutions. Wangsu has thelargest CDN (content delivery network) in China, built on a cloud computing platform,leading to higher profit margin, as the platform improves internal bandwidth andefficiency of using node resources. After acquiring GSC, we believe Wangsu is likely tocapitalize on GSC's cloud computing capacity and provide more cloud computingservices to clients. In addition, with its large investment to build a cloud securitynetwork in 2016, we think cloud computing-related businesses are likely to becomeWangsu's new growth driver. One of the first to receive MIIT's CDN licenceRecently, Wangsu and Alibaba Cloud received CDN licences, becoming the first batchof Chinese companies to be granted such licences by the Ministry of Industry andInformation Technology (MIIT). MIIT regrouped the telecom sector at end-2015,clarifying businesses included in the CDN segment and separating CDN companies fromthe Internet data centre (IDC) segment. With CDN licences issued, companies applyingfor the business must get their internet access systems, information security systemsand registration & information management systems approved by regulators, which webelieve will lead to higher entry barriers. Valuation: Maintain BuyWe continue to be bullish on the growth of China's CDN sector and think Wangsu islikely to continue to benefit from it. We maintain our DCF-based price target ofRmb85.50 (7.4% WACC) and Buy rating.
美的集团 电力设备行业 2016-12-19 27.90 33.35 -- 29.98 7.46%
34.79 24.70%
详细
Conference call with Midea: next year's revenue growth target is 10%As part of a series of efforts to highlight UBS-S top picks for the Shenzhen-HK StockConnect, we hosted a conference call with Mr. Jiang Peng, Midea's board secretary,and Ms. Su Fan, Midea's investor relations manager. At the conference, we learnedMidea aims for 10% YoY revenue growth and stable profitability next year. Midea targets double-digit growth rates; confident in keeping stable NPMMidea said while property control measures have a lagging effect, there is not a strongcorrelation between property and home appliance sales because a lot of properties arefor investment purposes and replacement demand accounts for a bigger share of totaldemand. Air conditioners (A/C) have the highest correlation with property sales, with~20% of domestic sales linked to property sales. For 2017, Midea targets 10% overallrevenue growth. By category, its revenue growth targets are 15-20% for refrigeratorsand washing machines, and above 10% for small appliances. For A/C, revenue growthis likely to reach 20% in H117 due to H116's low comparison base, and the company'sfull-year target is 10%. The company said rising raw material and transportation costswill not have a big impact on product gross margins due to its product pricing power asa leader in home appliances. The consolidated Toshiba Home Appliance (THA) will alsonot have a big impact on the company's gross margin. Midea is confident it canmaintain a stable net margin. Overseas operations to continue improving; THA to turn profitable next yearMidea said RMB depreciation will have a positive effect on next year's grossmargin/revenue, as overseas operations contribute ~50% of total revenue. It said it willnot change its overall operational strategy, ie, increasing the weighting of its ownbrands in developing countries and shifting from OEM to ODM in mature markets. Itwill step up market development in India, where A/C revenue is ~Rmb2bn and hasbeen growing more than 30% pa in recent years. The washing machine factory willcome on-stream and likely begin contributing revenue next year. Midea expects THA toincur a small loss in 2016 but is confident it will turn profitable next year throughmeasures including: 1) reducing costs by using Midea's production facilities; 2) applyingMidea's extensive product line to the Toshiba brand; and 3) integrating sales channels. Valuation: Maintain EPS estimates, Buy rating, PT of Rmb36.04We keep our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb2.37/2.79/3.17 unchanged. Our DCF-based pricetarget is Rmb36.04 (7.0% WACC). We maintain our Buy rating.
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