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以岭药业 医药生物 2016-11-24 17.32 22.82 76.90% 18.80 8.55%
18.80 8.55%
详细
Shijiazhuang orders drugmakers to halt or limit production to curb air pollution. The Shijiazhuang municipal government has unveiled an emergency plan to addresspersistent smog. The plan mandates a complete citywide production halt for sevenmajor industries (steel, cement, coking, casting, glass, ceramics, calcium/magnesium)from 17 Nov 2016 to 31 Dec 2016, although production lines engaged in critical tasks(residential heating, ensuring basic living conditions, etc.) are exempt. Meanwhile,industries such as pharmaceutical manufacturing, chemicals, packaging/printing, andfurniture will be managed based on a checklist system; in principle, all productionprocesses involving volatile organic compounds will be completely halted, but in specialcases where a total shutdown is not feasible, production may be scaled back withapproval from the municipal government. Based on our checks with Yiling, thecompany is currently subject to the production halt but is in talks with the citygovernment to resume production. Ample finished goods inventory. Yiling is a modern Chinese medicine producer whose EU/US-certified chemical drugproduction lines meet zero-emission standards. The company also demonstratedcompliance with standards during environmental checks just carried out in November. Looking at Shijiazhuang's pollution control efforts in past years, the city has oftenplaced limits on supply of power and heating during the heating season. In addition,Yiling's past annual reports indicate that it generally keeps at least 3 months of finishedgoods inventory on hand (not including inventory held in distribution channels). Weview the impact of production halts on the company as limited for now, and we arecontinuing to closely monitor the results of Yiling's talks with the government. Growth set to accelerate for 3 major prescription cardiovascular drugs. Yiling generates over 90% of its revenue from exclusive orally-administered Chinesedrugs, and it has been effective in maintaining tender prices. Yiling's major products(Shensong Yangxin/Qili Qiangxin/Lianhua Qingwen capsules) are likely to see rapidrevenue growth as more tenders take place given benign competition and upside forhospital coverage. Valuation: Maintain Rmb23.32 price target, Buy rating. Our Rmb23.32 price target is based on DCF and assumes an 8.1% WACC. Wemaintain our Buy rating.
东阿阿胶 医药生物 2016-11-21 59.80 62.54 69.26% 62.92 5.22%
62.92 5.22%
详细
Further price increases for key products e-jiao bars/e-jiao syrup/Taohuaji The company announced ex-factory price increases of 14%/28%/25% for e-jiao bars,e-jiao syrup and Taohuaji, with corresponding adjustments to the retail prices. Theadjusted retail prices for the three products are Rmb1,350/250g, Rmb467/48 sticks andRmb300/225g, respectively. This is the first price hike in a year for the e-jiao series. After the price hike, we expect the company to boost sales by stepping up its supportfor dealers and retail sales promotions. Gross margin could rise 2ppts, but we expect selling expenses to rise as well The latest price hike may further increase pressure on the sales volume of e-jiao bars,which posted flat revenue and a decline in sales volume in Q1-Q316 due to sharp priceincreases in 2014/15. Therefore, we do not expect the price hike to lead to anysignificant improvement in revenue/profit for e-jiao bars. For e-jiao syrup and Taohuaji,as the price hike comes at an opportune time when the end-market demand for thesetwo products is growing rapidly, their revenues and profits are likely to improvesignificantly if the company complements the price hike with retail sales promotions. We estimate that the price hike is likely to boost 2017 gross margin by about 2ppts(assuming a 10% increase in the donkey hide price). In our base case, the price hike islikely to add Rmb290m to the company's gross profit, but we expect selling expensesto increase concurrently. Overseas hide sourcing strategy starting to pay off China's donkey inventory has trended lower in recent years on high feed prices and alack of efficient breeding technology. This has driven up the price of donkey hide fromRmb48/kg in 2011 to Rmb373/kg in 2015. On the one hand, the company is buildingupstream facilities to gain more control over donkey hide sourcing. On the other hand,it is buying donkey hides from overseas. Foreign markets currently account for over30% of its donkey hide purchases. Sourcing donkey hides from overseas has alsoreduced the pressure to buy them in the domestic market. The price of donkey hideshas risen much more slowly, at c10% YTD. Moreover, donkey hide inventory hasincreased substantially, which is likely to underpin the company's earnings growth inthe next three years. Valuation: Rmb66.71 PT, Buy Our DCF-based PT of Rmb66.71 assumes 7.1% WACC.
网宿科技 通信及通信设备 2016-11-18 60.38 28.23 186.60% 61.78 2.32%
61.78 2.32%
详细
Raising 2016/2017 net profit estimates 7%/4% We are increasing our 2016 and 2017 earnings forecasts 7% and 4%, respectively, andthe stock is being added to the UBS Key Call list. Although we have adjusted ourmargin forecasts downward because of higher depreciation charges, strong videostreaming sector demand has led us to increase or 2016 revenue growth forecast from60% to 70%, though we maintain our 55% growth forecast for 2017. We think themarket is underestimating this revenue growth and overstating competitive pressures. CDN service demand to grow fast and upside for Wangsu's market share We estimate the content delivery network (CDN) service market in China will grow at aCAGR of about 40% in 2015-17, driven by the popularity of internet service and newinternet applications like live video streaming. We believe Wangsu Science andTechnology’s (Wangsu) share in China’s overall CDN market was over 50% in H116and we expect it to continue to rise because Wangsu provides reliable, high qualityservices, while some of its rivals are still testing and adjusting their platforms. We expect gross profit margin to stabilise Wangsu adopted an aggressive pricing strategy in H116 to rapidly seize market share inlive video streaming, resulting in gross margin contraction. However, we expect grossmargin to stabilise in H216 and expand in 2017, because: 1) the present pricecompetition is not sustainable; and 2) pricing pressure should ease as Wangsu hasgained leadership in the live streaming market—80% of China’s streaming platformsare now Wangsu's clients, according to the company. Valuation: added to UBS Key Call list We maintain our Buy rating and price target of Rmb85.50 (we are raising our earningsforecasts, but the number of shares has also increased due to a private placement, soour price target does not change). We derive our price target using a DCF methodology(WACC of 7.4%). Our 2016/17 earnings estimates are now 2.5%/4.5% above Windconsensus. Wangsu is trading at 23x 12-month rolling forward PE, below -1 standarddeviation of the past three years' mean. We think the CDN market will continue togrow relatively quickly and we believe Wangsu can expand its market share andmaintain a healthy profit margin. We consider the current valuation attractive.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2016-11-18 22.00 29.29 -- 31.32 42.36%
31.32 42.36%
详细
Gree ended Yinlong acquisition, as Yinlong's shareholders rejected revised plan. Gree announced on 16 Nov that it terminated its plan to issue shares to acquireYinlong New Energy. Earlier, at Gree's first extraordinary general meeting of 2016,shareholders voted to reject the financing plan to be implemented after the Yinlongacquisition. Yinlong's general meeting for shareholders also rejected the revisedacquisition plan, as the revised additional placement's offer price was apparently notacceptable. Therefore, Gree decided to terminate the acquisition and will resumetrading on 17 Nov. Diversification to stop in short term due to failure to enter NEV field. Based on the previous plan, Gree would have acquired 100% of the equity in Yinlong(valued at Rmb13bn) through issuing shares and raised Rmb9.7bn in financing, whichwould have diluted Gree's EPS by 24%. With the termination of the acquisition plan,the EPS will not be diluted, which we believe is a short-term positive for Gree's existingshareholders. At the company level, we believe Gree's short- to medium-termdiversification risks have softened: 1) if the company had successfully entered the fieldof new energy vehicles (NEV), it would have been exposed to the risks of reduction inNEV subsidies and Yinlong's failure in battery technology R&D; and 2) if the acquisitionhad been successful, there would be a risk that Gree's other businesses would havebeen negatively affected due to uncertainty over the results of Gree's integration ofYinlong. Given the slowing growth of white goods and steady stream of acquisitionsmade by rivals, we believe the company will continue to diversify in the future. A/C business will not be affected; Gree likely to maintain high dividend ratio. We expect Gree's A/C business to resume rapid revenue growth, as de-stocking in theA/C industry has basically completed. Although Gree's management may now bedisappointed because the employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) has failed tomaterialise due to termination of the acquisition plan, we believe the company's A/Cbusiness will not be affected in the near term since it is well entrenched in the A/Cmarket. The A/C business still has great growth potential in the medium to long term,in our view. Moreover, Gree had a large amount (about Rmb97bn) of cash and cashequivalents on its books at end-Q3. We believe the company will maintain a highdividend ratio to meet demand from majority shareholder Zhuhai SASAC and othershareholders. Valuation: Rmb32 PT; maintain Buy. We maintain our 2016-18E EPS of Rmb2.45/2.75/3.00. Our DCF-based PT is Rmb32(7.0% WACC). We maintain our Buy rating.
碧水源 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2016-11-17 18.21 21.14 143.83% 18.40 1.04%
18.40 1.04%
详细
Proprietary analysis identifies China as region with high risk to water resources In a recent UBS Q-Series report, UBS Evidence Lab’s geospatial and hydrology teamsdeveloped a watershed risk index that allows equity analysts to assess the level of waterrisk in China, and it identifies China as a high-risk region from the perspective of waterresources. According to the report, water risk in China is likely high enough to disrupteconomic growth, and according to the World Resources Institute Water Risk Index,major economic zones in China (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, Shanghai-Jiangsu-Zhejiang, Guangdong-Fujian, etc.) are categorized as medium- to high- or evenextremely high-risk regions in terms of water, with some of the south-eastern provincesexpected to shift into the high-risk category. Water shortage and pollution require better treatment solutions China’s water shortage and pollution have become increasingly concerning and riskdisrupting economic growth. The government and corporates are investing moreresources to tackle the issue. The government has been raising water treatmentstandards, and some leading cities (eg, Beijing) have started to promote waterrecycling. These higher standards require better and more advanced water treatmentsolutions. Beijing Originwater, as the leading membrane-based solution provider, is wellpositioned to benefit from the structural trend, in our view. Originwater – well positioned; strong growth momentum in Q1-Q316O riginwater is the dominant membrane-based solution provider for China’s wastewatertreatment industry, with over a 50% market share, leveraging its strong R&D capabilityand complete product offering covering the full value chain. In 2015, ChinaDevelopment Bank, the leading policy bank in China, became a major shareholder ofOriginwater, which could support its PPP development, in our view. In Q1-Q316,Originwater’s revenue and NPAT grew 88%/74% YoY, respectively, and with Rmb20bnin new orders signed in Q3alone, we expect the strong momentum to be sustained. Valuation: Reiterate Buy rating with PT of Rmb21.50 We derive our price target of Rmb21.50from a three-stage DCF model with a WACCof 6.9%. Originwater is trading at 20x 2017E PE, close to its historical trough, but withan expected 35% EPS CAGR in 2015-18. We see upside from the current valuation andreiterate our Buy rating.
深圳燃气 电力、煤气及水等公用事业 2016-11-17 9.88 7.98 7.55% 10.10 2.23%
10.10 2.23%
详细
New order from Huadian to add 380m cbm/year of gas volume. Shenzhen Gas announced it signed a framework purchase and sales agreement withHuadian Power International's subsidiary in Shenzhen to supply 380m cbm/year of gasto the latter's distributed power generation project in Pingshan New District. Thecompany will see a c15% increase in its gas sales volume if the project runs smoothlyand consumes 50% of the planned volume. Although the company's profit/cbm underthe agreement may be lower than its average gas transmission and distribution cost,we believe the ROE may still be high due to the substantial volume. Distributed gas-fired power generation delivers good return. If they can achieve utilisation hours of at least 3,000 annually, distributed gas-firedpower generating units are likely to obtain high rates of return in regions with goodeconomic conditions, such as southern China. The only bottleneck they are facing, ie,support from the power grid, is likely to gradually disappear with China's reform of thepower grid business. In addition, as it has advantages in terms of peak shaving, and gasis a clean energy source, distributed gas-fired power generation may benefit from theoverall energy strategy of reducing coal consumption. Tapping downstream market to build foundation for upstream trade. Shenzhen Gas' upstream LNG terminals are likely to come on-stream in 2017, and astable downstream customer base provides the necessary support for the upstreambusiness. Although PetroChina's West-East pipeline gas has to be used for the gas-firedpower generation project, the company may improve its mix of raw materials byimporting more LNG from the spot market. Therefore, we believe the company willfurther benefit from its strengths in importing LNG. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating. We keep our Rmb11 PT and Buy rating unchanged. Our DCF-based PT (6.3% WACC)implies 26.8x 2017E PE. In the near term, Shenzhen Gas may see downward pressureon its gross profit from PetroChina's gas price hikes. However, the company hasaggressively diversified its upstream gas sources. Moreover, it is operating in aneconomically developed region where energy prices are high and downstream demandfor gas is likely to maintain rapid growth.
森马服饰 批发和零售贸易 2016-11-16 10.87 13.69 37.31% 11.30 3.96%
11.30 3.96%
详细
Offline sales poised to recover In our recent checks, most brands reported retail improvement starting from late Sept.In Sept, 100key large retailers across China saw their combined retail sales rise 2.1%YoY, up 3.7ppt from last year. This included a 2.4% rise in apparel spending, up 7.2pptfrom last year. In Oct, 50key large retailers across China saw their overall retail salesrise 1.6% YoY, up 2.4ppt, including a 6.4% YoY jump in apparel spending, up 4.7pptfrom last year and the fastest monthly growth recorded YTD. We think this may be dueto winter temperatures arriving half a month earlier than last year, as the sharptemperature drop may have triggered some turn-of-the-season spending. Healthy eCommerce momentum and Singles' Day sales Based on sound team incentives and strategic resource support from the company, theeCommerce division has become Semir's most important growth driver. Apart fromhelping to grow its two major brands, the eCommerce channel is also becoming animportant vehicle for new-brand incubation and marketing innovation. Momentum hasstayed strong during this year's Singles' Day shopping festival, with sales reachingRmb410m as of 8am today, which already exceeds the full-day total for last year'sSingles' Day. We expect its online retail sales to exceed Rmb3bn in full-year 2016;single-brand sales of nearly Rmb1.5bn already represent a larger scale than most midsizedbrands. Rising expense ratio Semir's expense ratio has been largely stable in the past two years, though growth inexpenses has picked up on a YoY basis. Selling and administrative expenses rose 28%YoY in 9M16, which we chiefly attribute to higher salaries, higher eCommerce divisionexpenses, and investment in new brands. Headcount of its eCommerce division nowstands at 800; profitability remains lower than the offline business but we see thisgradually improving, helped by a rising weighting of new products and economies ofscale. Valuation: Lowering PT to Rmb15, maintain Buy We are lowering our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.60/0.71/0.81, reflecting a higher expenseratio due to the eCommerce division and new-brand outlays. Our Rmb15PT is basedon DCF and assumes a 7% WACC. We maintain our Buy rating.
恩华药业 医药生物 2016-11-16 18.92 16.12 35.92% 21.45 13.37%
22.68 19.87%
详细
New products likely to be main driver of revenue growthNhwa's stable overall revenue growth is mainly driven by new products, as older onesare entering a mature period with limited growth. Among Nhwa's new products, webelieve duloxetine (psychotropic), aripiprazole tablets (psychotropic), propofol(anaesthetic), remifentanil (anaesthetic) and dexmedetomidine (anaesthetic) have bettergrowth potential. Duloxetine/aripiprazole tablets have global peak sales potential ofUS$4bn/7bn, we estimate, in addition to a favourable competitive landscape in China. Rich R&D pipelineNhwa has more than 50 R&D projects, covering a full spectrum of central nervoussystem drugs. Also, it has a well-established R&D platform for original psychotropic andanalgesic drugs. It received regulatory approval for clinical trials on five of its productsin H116. New products in the pipeline may be able to support Nhwa's sustainabledevelopment. Increased spending on salesAmong Nhwa's main products, new ones are replacing older ones. A ramp-up in newproduct sales could be the key to Nhwa's growth, which requires increased spendingon sales. Nhwa's selling expense ratio rose c4ppts YoY in Q316. Valuation: Cutting price target to Rmb26.09; maintain BuyWe are raising our 2016-18E selling expense ratio 0.9/0.9/1.1ppts because we expectNhwa to increase spending on sales. As a result, our 2016-18E EPS fall 9%/10%/10%to Rmb0.54/0.69/0.90. Our new DCF-based price target of Rmb26.09 assumes WACCof 6.6% (down from 7.2%) and medium-term ROIC of 19% (down from 21% toreflect the tough operating environment facing drug manufacturers). We maintain ourBuy rating, as we believe Nhwa's business mix is improving and growth couldaccelerate on the ramp-up in new product sales.
航天信息 计算机行业 2016-11-16 22.79 27.59 15.34% 23.22 1.89%
23.22 1.89%
详细
First-ever share incentive plan: 17m restricted shares at Rmb13.47. Aisino announced its first-ever employee share incentive plan draft on 10 Nov: 17m ofrestricted shares, or ~0.9% of the company's current share base, will be issued atRmb13.47, 40% lower than the last close. This discount is in line with similar programsin listed SOEs. All shares are subject to a lock-up period of two years and will beunlocked in batches in the following three years. Share incentive plan implies ~16% revenue CAGR for 2016-19 In order to unlock all restricted shares, Aisino must deliver a 20% revenue CAGR in2016-19, based on average revenue of 2013-15. That translates into a ~16% revenueCAGR if 2015 is used as the basis year. As of now, we expect Aisino to deliver ~12%revenue growth for 2016-19. The plan also set up requirements on ROE and EVA butwe believe they are relatively easy to meet. The question is: Who is the "peer group" of enterprises? Aisino's share incentive plan requires the company's revenue growth and ROE level tobe no worse than at least 75% of "peer group" enterprises. If "peer group" meanslisted software peers or IT industry SOE peers, it seems like an ambitious target. However, the plan draft did not provide any details on the identity of "peer group"enterprises and we will wait for further disclosure. Valuation: Maintain Buy, PT of Rmb29.00 Aisino is trading at 21x/17x 2016E/2017E P/E, much lower than the A-share softwaresector average. However, we believe Aisino's growth momentum is in line with the Asharepeer average. The revenue target set in the share incentive plan is better than ourestimate but we need to wait for more details. Our price target of Rmb29.00 is derivedfrom DCF (7.1% WACC) and implies 22x 2017E P/E. We maintain our Buy rating.
广电运通 计算机行业 2016-11-11 14.95 13.50 24.54% 15.45 3.34%
15.45 3.34%
详细
Lower our 2016-18 earnings estimates on fiercer competition in ATM market. In Q1-Q316, GRG Banking Equipment's (GRG) revenue grew ~23% YoY, slightly belowour previous estimate of 25-28%. Management said China's ATM market growth hasdecelerated, and there is pressure from price competition. A major competitor,Cashway, is planning an A-share IPO, which may put new pressure on GRG's marketshare. Considering all these negative factors, we lower our 2016/2017/2018 EPSestimates by 9%/8%/9%. Q1-Q316 results not bad if tax impact is excluded. GRG's Q1-Q316 earnings only grew 6% YoY, but we think investors should not panic. It was mainly due to a YoY drop in the value-added tax (VAT) rebate and a rise in thecorporate tax rate. We expect such impact from taxes to be short-lived and corrected inend by 2017. Meanwhile, the company's Q1-Q3 operating profit rose ~20% YoY. Despite market headwinds, we still believe GRG can deliver a ~24% earnings CAGR in2016-18. Strategic cooperation with DCH could begin in 2017. During Digital China Holdings' (DCH) special shareholders' meeting on 25 October,GRG voted "Yes" to equity issuances for DCH's management and core employees. GRG said that after communication with DCH management, it believes such a planwould be positive for DCH's long-term growth. We think this may symbolise thebeginning of strategic cooperation with DCH and GRG. DCH's strength in bankingindustry IT solutions will be crucial for GRG's sustainable growth, and we expectsynergy in 2017 and beyond. Valuation: maintain Buy; lower price target from Rmb23.75 to Rmb21.40. Trading at 22x/16.9x 2016E/2017E PE, GRG's valuation is much lower than the A-sharepeer average. The stock has fallen ~27% YTD, in line with the A-share IT index. Webelieve the market is overly concerned about short-term industry headwinds. We baseour price target on DCF, assuming a WACC of 8.1%. We maintain a Buy rating.
欧菲光 电子元器件行业 2016-11-11 40.00 16.71 -- 40.50 1.25%
40.50 1.25%
详细
O-Film to acquire Sony Electronics' factory in China for US$234m O-Film announced its plan to buy Sony Electronics Huanan (SEH) for US$234m. Theconsideration includes US$95/139m for equity/debt. Upon completion of the deal, OFilmwill invest US$32m more for operation of SEH's projects. Acquisition likely to substantially boost revenue growth when completed SEH is Sony (China)'s factory in Guangzhou and reported 2015 revenue of Rmb6.828bnand net profit of Rmb109m. Since O-Film's Q1-Q316 camera module revenue was closeto Rmb5.5bn, we estimate that after the acquisition is completed, the factory may bec25%/15% accretive to O-Film's revenue/net profit and could help double the size ofits camera module business. The acquisition is also likely to improve technology/management capabilities We believe dual-camera modules are likely to start becoming widely used in Chinesemadesmartphones in 2017. Considering Sony's advanced development and packagingtechnologies for camera modules, we believe the acquisition could help O-Filmstrengthen its capability to develop such products to further improve product mix andmarket share. O-Film is also likely to further improve its product quality and operationalmanagement capabilities through the acquisition. Valuation: Maintain Buy We maintain our DCF-based price target of Rmb42 (WACC 7.6%) and Buy rating.
华海药业 医药生物 2016-11-09 24.95 25.62 43.21% 25.08 0.52%
25.08 0.52%
详细
Product line expanding. Huahai has received ANDA approvals for 3 generics and clinical trial approvals for 5drugs since August. New ANDA and clinical trial approvals are laying a foundation forthe company's long-term development at home and abroad. We believe the technicaladvantages Huahai has accumulated over many years in generic drug productionprocesses, quality control, etc., along with substantial R&D investment, will helpsupport ongoing product line updates, driving its long-term development. Fast growth overseas. Generic drug exports are one of the company's core competencies. Huahai has receivedover 20 ANDA approvals, including 6 YTD in 2016. It is gradually moving towards highdifficulty,high-value-added generics and high-end preparations. Given its global costadvantages and future product launches, its overseas preparation business is likely tomaintain rapid growth. Giving higher priority to domestic preparation business. China's rollout of policies covering areas such as drug evaluations and generic drugconformity assessments are positive for drug-makers such as Huahai, which have strongproduction processes and high-quality generic drugs. In response to policy trends, thecompany has ramped up investment in its domestic preparation business. Although thiswill result in higher marketing and R&D expenses in the short term, the advantages ofthe company's high-quality preparations should become increasingly apparent asprovince-level tendering policies fall into place, resulting in robust growth for itsdomestic business. Valuation: Raising PT to Rmb31.19; maintain Buy. The company has ratcheted up R&D spending to support long-term growth. Althoughwe expect that to negatively impact mid-term ROIC, new products are likely to drivegrowth over the long term. As a result, despite cutting our mid-term ROIC estimate to18% from 20%, we are raising our terminal growth assumption to 5% from 4%. Ournew DCF-derived PT of Rmb31.19 assumes 7.3% WACC and implies 53x/41x 2016/17EPE. We maintain our Buy rating.
航天信息 计算机行业 2016-11-07 22.15 27.59 15.34% 23.22 4.83%
23.22 4.83%
详细
Disappointing Q316 results, partially due to tax impact. Aisino's revenue increased 14% but net profit declined 23% in 9M16, partially due to a62% YoY decline of non-operating income (mainly VAT refunds), while the businessincome tax rate increased to 21.2% from 16.7% in 9M15, quite common among listedsoftware companies. The reason may have been because the tax regulator has beenbusy pushing for tax reform while overlooking implementation of certain preferentialtax policies. Since there have been no changes in the preferential tax policiesthemselves, we believe this situation could improve by end-2016. Excluding thesefactors, Aisino's 9M16 net profit would have remained flat YoY. Tax reform at a critical stage, with lots of work possibly delayed to 2017. This is a critical year for "business to value-added" tax reform and the State Councilrequested the completion of it by end-2016. However, this target will be difficult toachieve due to the many enterprises involved. As the largest VAT anti-fraud systemdeveloper in China, Aisino has been affected and the company is benefitting from taxreform slower than expected. However, we believe business growth driven by taxreform simply has been partially postponed to 2017, while its market position and longtermgrowth potential have not been affected. Strong software and system integration growth; acquisitions to be completed. Aisino's software and system integration revenue increased 55% YoY in H116 – weestimate Q316 revenue growth was also mainly driven by software and systemintegration. The company's acquisitions of Sinobest and Aerospace Golden Shield wereapproved by the CSRC on 19 Sept. If the acquisitions are completed in Q416, Aisino'ssoftware and system integration business will be significantly strengthened, which willensure its sustained growth despite tax reform progress uncertainties. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating and PT of Rmb29.00. Aisino is trading at 20.3x/16.7x 2016E/17E PE, significantly lower than the industryaverage and lower than its historical valuation. Our price target of Rmb29.00 is basedon DCF, assuming WACC of 7.1%, and implies 22.7x 2017E PE.
工商银行 银行和金融服务 2016-11-07 4.42 5.09 -- 4.57 3.39%
4.67 5.66%
详细
9M16 NPAT up 0.5% YoY; NIM stabilizingQ316 net profit after tax (NPAT) decreased 0.2% YoY/4% QoQ to Rmb72.6bn. 9M16NPAT was Rmb222.8bn, up 0.5% YoY and representing 85%/82% of UBS-S estimates/consensus. The results were better than we expected: 1) Q3 total loans rose 9% YoYand NIM dropped 3bps QoQ. Excluding the impact of value-added tax, NIM was flatQoQ, with management expecting NIM to stabilize in the next few quarters. 2) Feeincome rose 2% YoY. 3) Annualized credit cost in Q316 was 61bps, down 6bps QoQ. We are lifting our 2016/17E net profit 5%/7% to reflect a better asset-quality outlook. Sound asset qualityAs of Q316, the non-performing loan (NPL) balance increased 6% QoQ, with the NPLratio up 7bps to 16.2%. The coverage ratio fell 6.9ppts to 136%. 9M16 new loanswere Rmb980.7bn, among which new mortgage loans accounted for 54% and publicconstruction project loans accounted for 24.5%. Currently, the NPL ratio of mortgageloans is 0.45% and average loan-to-value is 50.5%. Management mentioned it is notworried about mortgage loan asset quality. Solid capital positionThe common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio at end-Q316 rose to 12.58%, up 4bps QoQ andthe second highest among the banks we cover. The tier 1 capital adequacy ratio andtotal capital adequacy ratio were 13.13% and 14.18%, respectively. We estimate thebank's CET1 ratio is sufficient to support its asset growth in the next 2-3 years withoutthe need for fundraising. Valuation: Raising price target 7% to Rmb5.8; maintain BuyThe bank is trading at 0.8x 2016E P/B. We derive our price target using a PB/ROEmethod and reach our target 2016E P/B of 1.09x on long-term sustainable ROE of11.0%, 10.5% cost of equity and long-term growth of 5%. We maintain our Buyrating.
网宿科技 通信及通信设备 2016-11-03 62.15 28.23 186.60% 61.86 -0.47%
61.86 -0.47%
详细
Q316 revenue grew 50.6% YoY; net profit ex. one-offs grew 58.1% YoY In Q316, the company recorded revenue of Rmb1.166bn (up 50.6% YoY), net profitattributable to the parent of Rmb330m (up 40.1% YoY) and net profit ex. one-offs ofRmb310m (up 58.1% YoY). Non-recurring items was significantly impacted by changesin government subsidy, which was Rmb7.83m in Q316, compared to Rmb42.34m inQ315, mainly as the company had received most of the subsidy in H116. In Q1-Q316,the company's revenue/ net profit attributable to the parent/net profit ex. one-offsgrew 60.2%/64.2%/68.4% YoY, respectively. Gross margin dropped moderately, but operational efficiency further improved Gross margin came in at 41.7% in Q316, below 44.3% in Q315 and 43.6% in Q216.We believe this was mainly as the company adopted relatively aggressive pricingstrategy to actively obtain market share in 2016, especially in emerging areas such aslive broadcasting. The good thing is that the company's selling expense ratio furtherdropped to 5.5% in Q316, lower than 5.8% in Q216 and 6.9% in Q315. This indicatesthat the overall CDN market is still growing and the company's CDN services are stillquite competitive. We expect CDN service revenue to keep growing rapidly and GM to recover We expect Wangsu's CDN services to sustain rapid growth in the next two years: 1)demand for CDN will continue to grow, and we expect China's CDN market to sustainc40% CAGR in the next two years; 2) Wangsu possesses strong advantages in CDNnode coverage, leverage of large network traffic and operational experiences. We alsobelieve Wangsu's gross margin will gradually recover. We believe its price for livestreaming services is already low and price competition is unsustainable. Valuation: maintain Buy rating and price target of Rmb85.5 We expect Wangsu to sustain c50% revenue CAGR in the next two years. Currently,the market may be overly concerned about CDN sector's growth and competitionpressure from other CDN service providers, especially from cloud service providers. Wemaintain our Buy rating and derive our price target of Rmb85.5 based on the DCFmethodology (WACC 7.4%).
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