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Richard Rui-Huang

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美的集团 电力设备行业 2017-01-26 29.03 34.49 -- 33.47 15.29%
35.66 22.84%
详细
2017 – a new era for the company, reinstating with Buy With this note, we reinstate coverage on Midea with a Buy rating postrestriction. We believe the company has now formulated its long-term growthstrategy of globalization and automation, after the acquisitions of ToshibaAppliance and KUKA in 2016. Midea can now expand its global presence inhome appliance, leveraging Toshiba’s distribution network in Japan and SouthEast Asia. Within the automation segment, it will enable KUKA to furtherdevelop in China and also increase automation levels in its manufacturing andlogistics. Reinstating with Buy. KUKA acquisition: a key step towards smart manufacturing & smart appliancestrategy We expect the KUKA acquisition will help Midea access the automation marketvia the German company’s robotics products for the automotive sector andgeneral industries. We expect Midea will also improve its own productionefficiency (smart manufacturing) and flexibility (smart appliance) by leveragingKUKA’s automation solutions. In addition, Midea could help KUKA to developthe China market through localization. We forecast the robotics revenue fromKUKA will contribute 12% of group revenue by 2018E, with 7% in NP. Mideashould continue to invest in the supply chain of robotics. A solid growth outlook in 2017, mainly driven by air con re-stocking We expect air con (47% of total home appliance sales) to deliver double-digitgrowth in revenue in 1H17, mainly driven by channel re-stocking and thedemand from new home sales. Washing machines (9%) and refrigerators (8%)should grow at a double-digit rate and continue to gain market share. Itscombination of product mix upgrade and new product launches will offsethigher raw material costs, and we expect an 11%/11% increase inEBIT/revenue for its home appliance business. New target price of RMB35.5 on SOTP, implying 13x FY17E PE; risks We lift our NP by 21-25% for FY17-18E to reflect the consolidation of Toshibaand KUKA. We use SOTP to value the company (see Figure 4). Our new targetprice is RMB35.5, implying 13x/12x FY17/18E PE. Downside risks: globalexpansion; rising raw material prices and fierce competition.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2017-01-26 10.03 11.98 -- 11.33 12.96%
13.11 30.71%
详细
Favorable US home appliance shipment data in 4Q16 The Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers (AHAM) released US homeappliance shipment (sell-in) December data on 24 January. The AHAM 6 (70%of total shipments), which includes washers, dryers, dishwashers,refrigerators, freezers, ranges and ovens, were up 14.3% in December versus14.7% in November and versus 7.0% in October. This makes a strong 4Qshipment with 12% yoy growth, from flattish yoy growth in 3Q. We believe USconsumers’ demand for home appliances and home renovation-relatedproducts has returned post the election. Haier’s GEA is the second-largestwhite goods brand in the US, with 39% revenue from kitchenware &bathrooms, 27% from refrigerators and 17% from washing machines. Webelieve the shipment data bode well for GEA’s growth in 2017. FY17 NP to grow 21% yoy; GEA to account for 28/33% of total NP/revenue We expect sales revenue of domestic washing machines (+5% yoy) andrefrigerators (+4%) to improve in FY17, driven by product upgrades and saleschannel optimization during the past two years. We expect air con willrebound to high single-digit, driven by channel restocking. We forecastoverseas revenue (excluding GEA) is likely to grow at a double-digit rate, drivenby a strong demand in India and SE Asia. For GEA, the top line should grow3% in LCY or 12% in CNY (DBe USD/CNY 7.4/8.1 as of the end of 2017/18). The rising raw material cost is likely to be offset by the improved product mixand the cost saving (RMB300-400m) with the streamlining of the supply chainwith GEA. Net profit is expected to grow 21% yoy to RMB6bn, on a 24%increase in revenue to RMB142bn in 2017. We expect GEA to account for28/33% of total net profit/revenue in 2017. TP lowered by 4% on 4% cut to FY17 earnings; maintaining Buy We lower our FY16-17 earnings forecast by 8%/4% to reflect the higher-thanexpectedselling expense in 3Q16, which is due to the one-off deal cost(RMB400m) and the rising marketing expense (RMB~200m) in SEA for thedevelopment of the Haier brand. We cut our TP by 4% to RMB12.2, implying12x/10x FY17/18 PE. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the potentialsynergy in introducing GEA products into the China market and the strong UShome appliance sentiment.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-01-24 38.20 35.05 -- 44.10 15.45%
59.28 55.18%
详细
FY16 preliminary results in line with our estimates (DBe) and market forecasts Robam announced preliminary net profit up 48% yoy, to RMB1.2bn, on a 9%yoy revenue rise, to RMB5.8bn. Operating profit rose 41% yoy, to RMB1.3bn,with the operating margin improving 2ppts yoy. Core net profit (excluding aone-off government subsidy of RMB47m, received in December 2016) was 5%and 2% above our and market consensus estimates, respectively. Revenuewas in line with our and market forecasts. For 4Q16, core net profit rose 40%yoy, to RMB479m, on a 31% revenue rise, to RMB1.9bn. Market share gains in all product categories, with a margin improvement We believe Robam has gained market share in all product categories. According to China Market Monitor, the industry revenue for range hoods, gasstoves and disinfecting cabinets increased 9%, 5% and 1%, respectively, in2016. The operating margin improved by 2ppts, due mainly to 1) improvedoperating efficiency from internal optimisation, 2) the rapid growth of the ecommercechannel, 3) the increase in the new product sales mix, and 4) thedecline in the selling expense ratio as a result of the cost control measures. Good track record of delivering results above market estimatesRobam has had a good track record of delivering results above marketestimates for six consecutive years since its listing in 2010. The averagesurprise of its reported results was +3% during 2011-15, according toBloomberg Finance LP. A leading kitchen appliance brand; maintaining Buy Robam is a leading kitchen appliance brand in China, and it is set to benefitfrom the fast-growing high-end market segment. We expect its market shareto gain 6ppts, to 16%, by 2020, driven mainly by the expansion of its specialtystore network, riding the e-commerce boom, and the growth in built-inappliances. We maintain our Buy recommendation. The company is scheduledto release audited FY16 results on 30 March.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-01-23 5.02 5.59 -- 5.78 15.14%
6.42 27.89%
详细
Preliminary FY16results – net profit RMB1.2bn Yonghui reported preliminary results for FY16on 17January after the marketclose. Net profit rose 105% yoy to RMB1.2bn on a 17% increase in salesrevenue, to RMB49bn. The company attributed the increase in net profit to: 1)the optimization of the organizational restructuring and strong cost control, 2)one-off gain from the disposal of its Lianhua stake, and 3) finance income(DBe: RMB88m in FY16, vs. RMB25m in FY15). Revenue in 4Q16was 25% offull-year 2016, vs. 27%/25% in 4Q14/15, respectively. Core FY16results in line with DBe; maintaining Buy Excluding the disposal gain of RMB170m, core net profit (RMB1.1bn) andrevenue (RMB49bn) were in line with DB estimates (RMB1.1bn/50bn). Webelieve same store sales increased by ~1% yoy in 4Q16, vs. 2-3% increase in1H/3Q16. For 4Q16, core net profit was RMB255m (vs. RMB8m in 4Q15) andnet margin was 2.1%, in line with that in 4Q14.We maintain our Buy recommendation as we believe the company should be along-term beneficiary of China’s secular trend of modern retail andmanagement’s operational expertise in fresh food. We expect its operationalefficiency to improve, given the completion of the organizational restructuringin 2016. In addition, we believe Yonghui is gaining market share, driven by itsacceleration in store expansion (adding 70-80stores each year in FY17-18).Downside risks include weak consumer sentiment and SSS.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2017-01-16 5.03 5.59 -- 5.30 5.37%
6.10 21.27%
详细
Business restructuring almost complete in 2016. Yonghui has established two business groups, namely Red Label and Bravo stores. The Bravo store has less operating area than Red Label, while its sales per square meter are 20-30% higher than Red Label stores due to selected mid-high-end merchandise. Yonghui also tests different store formats including the Jinbiao store (an upgrade from Bravo stores with catering services) and membership stores. Partnership expected to motivate store managers. Yonghui has rolled out a partnership program in its Bravo group. Store managers act as limited partners and take the initiative to set the growth target and operational plans. The company also simplified its SOP (standard operation procedure) to streamline operational procedures. Store managers were motivated by the profit sharing scheme. Salmon fish workshop and food court likely to attract traffic. The company’s salmon fish workshops source fresh fish from reliable upstream suppliers. The workshop is operated by independent teams and also adopts a partnership model and profit sharing incentive program. Yonghui aims to increase traffic to its offline store and increase customer repurchasing by offering more value for the money in Japanese and Chinese food. Private label development to accelerate. Private label sales comprise only 2% of sales, and Yonghui has a division to develop private label products. In the past, it was required to negotiate with suppliers on a case-by-case basis. Thus, the development of private label products was slow. However, it formed an alliance with Daman last year and expects to accelerate the process by introducing more resources from Daman. The company also plans to build up its products’ branding name with embedded stories to differentiate its products.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-01-13 38.13 35.05 -- 41.18 8.00%
54.22 42.20%
详细
Robam – upgrading of 2016NP guidance On 9January after the market closed, the company announced that it isrevising its FY16net profit guidance from an increase of 20-40% yoy (as statedin its 3Q16results) to an increase of 40-50%, due to 1) a better-than-expectedsales performance in 4Q16, and 2) the government subsidy received at the2016year-end. According to the announcement, net profit in 2016will be in arange of RMB1,163m to RMB1,246m. Deutsche Bank comments We expect Robam to generate a 25% increase in net profit on a 31% rise inrevenue in 4Q16. Excluding the one-off government subsidy (DBe RMB47m),we estimate Robam’s net profit in 2016will be in a range of RMB1,116m toRMB1,199m. This is in line with our full-year forecast of RMB1,128m (35% yoyincrease). To recap, in December 2016, the company received a governmentsubsidy of RMB54m on R&D investment. Robam is a leading kitchen appliance brand in China and it is set to benefitfrom the fast-growing high-end market segment. We expect its market shareto gain 6ppts to 16% by 2020, driven mainly by expansion in its specialty storenetwork, riding the d-commerce boom and the growth in built-in appliances.We maintain our Buy recommendation.
老板电器 家用电器行业 2017-01-12 38.59 35.05 -- 41.18 6.71%
53.50 38.64%
详细
Robam – upgrading of 2016 NP guidanceOn 9 January after the market closed, the company announced that it isrevising its FY16 net profit guidance from an increase of 20-40% yoy (as statedin its 3Q16 results) to an increase of 40-50%, due to 1) a better-than-expectedsales performance in 4Q16, and 2) the government subsidy received at the2016 year-end. According to the announcement, net profit in 2016 will be in arange of RMB1,163m to RMB1,246m. Deutsche Bank commentsWe expect Robam to generate a 25% increase in net profit on a 31% rise inrevenue in 4Q16. Excluding the one-off government subsidy (DBe RMB47m),we estimate Robam’s net profit in 2016 will be in a range of RMB1,116m toRMB1,199m. This is in line with our full-year forecast of RMB1,128m (35% yoyincrease). To recap, in December 2016, the company received a governmentsubsidy of RMB54m on R&D investment. Robam is a leading kitchen appliance brand in China and it is set to benefitfrom the fast-growing high-end market segment. We expect its market shareto gain 6ppts to 16% by 2020, driven mainly by expansion in its specialty storenetwork, riding the d-commerce boom and the growth in built-in appliances. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2016-11-18 22.00 23.79 -- 31.32 42.36%
31.32 42.36%
详细
Zhuhai Yinlong has decided to terminate this deal. Gree announced on 16 November that it will not proceed with its acquisition ofZhuhai Yinlong, as a result of: 1) the revised proposal not being approved bythe shareholders of Zhuhai Yinlong, and 2) Zhuhai Yinlong therefore decidingto terminate the deal. According to the announcement, the company’sbusiness is in good shape, and the termination of the deal will not have anynegative impact on the company’s development strategy and daily operations. The company plans to seek new growth drivers to improve its profitability andenhance its competitiveness. Separately, the company said it will not topropose any M&A plan for at least one month from now. Resume trading from 17 November. The company’s shares will resume trading from 17 November. Overhang lifted, reiterating Buy. We are positive on the cancelation of the deal, which is in line with ourexpectations, as highlighted in our note “Revision of acquisition proposal,continuing suspension by 30 Nov” published on 7 November. We believe the company can now focus on its main business with less riskfrom the business diversification. In addition, the company should learnlessons from this deal, and take total shareholders’ return seriously, especiallythe interests of the minority shareholders. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the back of Gree’s dominantposition in the air conditioner industry and strong balance sheet, with a decentdividend yield. The company had net cash of RMB87bn as of 9M16, or 64% ofits market cap. The company’s share was trading at 9.3x FY16 PE, which is 20% discount ofthe average PE multiple of Qingdao Haier (11.2x FY16 PE) and Midea’s (11.9xFY16 PE), according to Bloomberg Finance LP.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2016-11-17 22.00 23.79 -- 31.32 42.36%
31.32 42.36%
详细
Ms. Dong has resigned from Gree Group (parent company of Gree) Local press (Sohu finance) has reported that Ms. Dong e, chairlady of Gree(listed company) and Gree Group (parent company), has resigned as chairladyof Gree Group, effective 18 October. Ms. Dong will continue to act as chairlady and president of Gree The company’s IR team confirmed this news in an email response, andresponded that Ms. Dong would continue to act as chairlady and president ofGree. The reason for Ms. Dong’s resignation as chairlady of Gree group wasthat 1) Ms. Dong could avoid conflicts of interest in the ESOP (employee stockownership programme), as she was taking positions in different SOEcompanies, and 2) she could focus on the development of Gree. Deutsche Bank comments We believe Ms. Dong will continue to serve as the chairlady of Gree and thatthis resignation in the parent company will not affect Ms. Dong’s service in thelisted company. However, Gree has been criticised as lacking with regard toleadership succession. We believe the company has realised this concern, andwill strengthen its leadership team to ensure the business continuity. The company’s shares are suspended, pending the revision of the acquisitionproposal.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2016-11-09 22.00 23.79 -- 31.32 42.36%
31.32 42.36%
详细
Deutsche Bank comments We believe there are several scenarios when revising the acquisition proposal. They are: 1) the acquisition and the private placement are cancelled, 2) theprivate placement is canceled, while the issue price of the acquisition isrevised up by 44% to RMB22.4, the closing price of the recent trade day (28Oct), and 3) the issue price for the acquisition and the private placement isrevised to RMB22.4 with other terms unchanged. We believe the dilution islikely to narrow to 0%/2.9%/8.8% in the above three scenarios, vs. 14.3%dilution in the last version’s acquisition proposal. The revision of the proposal is positive to the company’s corporate governancein the long term, in our view. Management should learn lessons from thisSGM, and take the total shareholder return seriously, especially the interests ofthe minority shareholders.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2016-11-02 9.98 12.47 -- 11.30 13.23%
11.30 13.23%
详细
3Q16 core NP in line with Deutsche Bank estimates. 3Q16 core net profit (excluding GEA) grew 13% yoy, on a 2.4% yoy increase inrevenue. This was in line with our estimates of 13%/3% yoy growth for thebottom line/top line on a like-for-like basis. Consolidated net profit declined by41% yoy to RMB508m in 3Q16, owing mainly to the deal-related one-offexpense of RMB200-300m booked in the period. Strong earnings growth of GEA. GEA’s performance was in line with our expectations, with top-line growth of2.9% yoy and double-digit EBITDA growth on a margin improvement in 9M16. For 3Q, we believe GEA’s revenue was RMB11bn, or 26% of our full-yearforecast. 3Q16 highlights. Revenue for the white goods business increased by 10% yoy, driven by thecompany’s transformation in the domestic retail market and its continuouspenetration into the global market. The GPM improved by 2.4ppts, to 29.3%, driven mainly by refrigerators, airconditioners, washing machines and kitchen appliances. The opex ratio increased by 4 ppts, to 26.2%. Net debt was RMB12bn as of 9M16, vs. net cash of RMB23bn, due to theborrowing of USD3.3bn for the acquisition of GEA. Operating cash flow was RMB 4.9bn in 9M16, four times that in 9M15. The company sold 0.7m units of customer-designed products and 2.7munits of smart appliance products in 9M16. The registered U+ APP usersreached 21m. Qingdao has built up a global-sourcing R&D and supply-chain platform,teaming up with GEA, to strengthen its operational capability in overseasmarkets. Conference call scheduled at 16:30 HKT on 31 October, +852-2112-1444/ID1807131.
永辉超市 批发和零售贸易 2016-10-31 4.49 5.59 -- 4.69 4.45%
5.29 17.82%
详细
Strong results in 3Q16; largely in line with DBeYonghui announced that net profit rose 107% yoy to RMB146m on an 18%increase in revenue to RMB12bn. 3Q sales were 25% of our FY16 full yearforecast, vs. 25% in 3Q14/15. 3Q NP was 13% of our FY16 full year forecast,vs.12-23% in 3Q14-15. For 9M16, net profit increased by 37% to RMB815m ona 17% increase in revenue. Maintaining Buy on rapid store expansion and improved operating efficiencyWe believe the strong results are attributable to store expansion of 21 newstores, GP margin improvement on better assortment management, andoperating leverage on economies of scale. We maintain Buy on Yonghui for itsrapid store expansion (60-80 new stores each year) and improved operatingefficiency. We keep our estimates unchanged for full year 2016.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2016-09-05 10.72 12.47 -- 10.88 1.49%
11.30 5.41%
详细
Key takeaways from conference call post 1H16 results July and August saw positive growth for air conditioners (+20-30% yoy) andrefrigerators. To launch new products in Jul-Aug. It plans to launch new products targetingthe mid-low end product segments (RMB3-5k for frond load washers, RMB1.2-1.8k for top load washers) to enrich its product offering at all price points. Enhance marketing strategy. It plans to increase the communication withconsumers on the product features, including the product quality, advancedtechnology and the product innovative design. Strengthen channel management. It has initiated the adjustment of itsdistribution channels with a focus on the 58 key distributors and plans to rollover to 2,800 distributors nationwide. It will increase the offering of marketingresources, stabilize distributor network, protect distributors’ profitability andenhance consumers’ shopping experience. The next step is to adjust the keyaccount channels. For the online channel, it has changed eHaier mall as amarketplace to enrich the SKUs. Completion of destocking of air conditioners. Channel inventory has returnedto the normal level. Its product strategy is to focus on mid-high end segment. In 1H, ASP increased 2.9% yoy vs. the industry average of 0.9%. It expects airconditioners to increase significantly in 2H on a low base. To improve Casarte in 2H. Revenue declined in 1H. By product, fridges andkitchen appliances increased, while air conditioners and washers (due to delayin the launch of new products) declined. It expects Casarte to perform better in2H, driven by the improvement in the retail end operations. 2H16 outlook – recovery from 1H We expect air conditioners to recover to +13%, washers to slightly improve to+3%, fridges to narrow the decline to -1% and kitchenware to maintain themomentum at +9% yoy in 2H. We expect GEA to contribute RMB22bn in 2H,driven by 6% growth in LCY for the top line. We expect NP to grow 26% yoy toRMB5bn in 2016, driven by the consolidation of GEA and the recovery of AC. TP unchanged at RMB12.7; risks We fine-tune our FY16-17E by +0.1/0.4% to reflect the 1H16 results. Ourprimary valuation methodology is DCF. We thus use the blended weightedaverageCOE of 8.5%, and a long-term growth rate of 1.5%. Our DCF-basedtarget price is RMB12.7. This translates into 14/12x FY16/17E P/E, which is inline with its historical PE multiple. Downside risks: 1) failure to integrate theacquired business and 2) unfavorable FX.
格力电器 家用电器行业 2016-09-05 19.49 23.79 -- 23.58 20.99%
31.32 60.70%
详细
Air conditioners recovering in 2H16; upgrading to Buy. Air conditioners (AC) to recover in 2H with a healthy channel inventory level We are turning more positive on Gree, as its: 1) core air conditioner business is set to recover from 3% decline in 1H16 to 15% growth in 2H16 as the channel inventory issue is now resolved; 2) foray into a rapid growth business (electric vehicles), with the stock ownership scheme and net profit guarantee clause, which should partially ease market concerns about the private placement; and 3) focus on shareholder returns with a newly committed dividend payout ratio of 60% for FY17-18, above our projection (50-55%). We lift our sales/NP by 4- 7%/14-21% for FY17-18E to reflect the recovering of AC and the consolidation of Yinlong. Our new TP of RMB24.91 implies 41% upside. Upgrading to Buy. Air conditioners (AC) to recover in 2H with a healthy channel inventory level. According to our proprietary channel check, Gree’s channel inventory had fallen to a healthy level of one to two months as of end-July. This is attributable to decisive output constraints since 2Q15 and robust market demand due to the hot weather and home improvements. Distributors should rebuild their inventories in August. We expect AC business NP to grow at a 13% CAGR in FY17-18E on a 12% CAGR in revenue. Placement amount cut to RMB9.7bn (14.3% dilution) from RMB10bn (14.5%). We believe the market’s concerns about the potential dilution (14.3% in FY17E) from issuing new shares and diversifying into non-related business have eased due to: 1) the deal being relatively small (6% of Gree’s NP in FY17E); 2) a stock ownership scheme to help align management’s interests with shareholders’ and retain talent; and 3) an NP guarantee clause to motivate the target’s management team. This deal might not be perfect for Gree’s diversification strategy; however, we believe this should be a good start for Gree to enter the electric vehicle industry, given the rapid industry growth profile (Deutsche Bank estimate: 28% CAGR in 2015-20) and favorable government policies. Raising target price to RMB24.91 from RMB18.1; risks. We use SOTP to value the company with a new target price of RMB24.91 (old RMB18.1), to reflect the de-stocking of channel inventory, the newly acquired new energy bus business, and potential dilution. Our target price implies 11x/9x FY17/18 PE, which is at a premium to its historical valuation point during de-stocking of channel inventory, and dividend yield at 5.5% for FY17E. Downside risks include competition, subsidy policy, and M&A.
青岛海尔 家用电器行业 2016-09-01 10.40 12.47 -- 10.88 4.62%
11.30 8.65%
详细
1H16results ahead of DBe 1H16NP rose 21% yoy to RMB3.3bn, on a 3% increase in revenue. NP was10% higher than our expectation, mainly due to the consolidation of HaierSingapore and the better-than-expected GPM. By segment, air conditioners declined 8% yoy to RMB9.5bn, refrigeratorsdeclined by 5% to RMB14bn, washing machines increased slightly by 2% yoyto RMB8bn. Equipment increased by 9%, while integrated channel servicesdeclined 11% due to the air conditioner output volume constraint in 1H and thedownsize of third-party brand distribution . GP margin improved by 1.7ppts to 28.9%, attributable to the low raw materialand the improved product mix with high-end products. ASP for air conditioners and refrigerators rose by 3%/8% respectively. Sales offront-load washers and multi-door fridges increased by 13%/51%, respectively. e-commerce revenue rose 30% yoy, driven by promotional events with majoronline platforms. GEA – EBITDA to grow at 10%+ yoy in LCY in 2016-17 GEA grew EBITDA at a double-digit rate to USD307m in 1H16in LCY, on 3.6%yoy growth in the top line, to USD3.1bn. Haier expects GEA EBITDA to grow at10%+ yoy in LCY in 2016-17, with top-line growth of 3-5% driven by the jointprocurement, sharing resources and build up of R&D platforms. GEA wasconsolidated on 7July, which contributed RMB103m in NP and RMB3.5bn inrevenue (3% and 7% of Haier’s NP/revenue) in 1H16.
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