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James Kan

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研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
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最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
沧州明珠 基础化工业 2017-07-21 13.88 15.20 3.61% 16.68 20.17%
17.25 24.28% -- 详细
1H17 results in line with both DBe and Bloomberg consensus Cangzhou Mingzhu announced its 1H17 results after market close on 18 July 2017. The Company posted revenue of RMB1.63bn in 1H17, achieving 54% FY17DBe and 51% full year Bloomberg consensus. It delivered 1H17 NPAT of RMB284.9m, accounting for 49% FY17DBe and 46% full year Bloomberg consensus. 1H17 results are in line with both DBe and Bloomberg consensus. Major beneficiary of strong EV growth in China, Buy reiterated We believe Cangzhou Mingzhu should be the major beneficiary of strong EV growth in China, as the Company is aggressively expanding separator capacity three-fold till 2019 to catch up with strong demand from EV battery supply chain at a CAGR of 30%, aiming to increase its global separator market share from 4% in 2016 to 6% in 2019. This accounts for c.25% of gross profit in 2017, rising to 41% by 2019E and underpins our positive outlook on the Company. Supported by recent strong momentum of China EV shipment (up 48% YoY in June), reiterating Buy.
沧州明珠 基础化工业 2017-06-19 13.79 15.20 3.61% 14.94 8.34%
16.68 20.96%
详细
New TP pursuant to stock split We adjusted our TP of Cangzhou Mingzhu to RMB15.2 pursuant to its 17 for 10 share split.
沧州明珠 基础化工业 2017-06-08 12.69 15.19 3.54% 14.34 13.00%
16.68 31.44%
详细
Aggressive expanding separator and mild improving pipe; initiating with Buy Separators: expanding capacity three-fold to catch up with strong demand CZMZ is expanding separator capacity three-fold to catch up with strong demand from EV battery supply chain at a CAGR of 30%. This accounts for c.25% of gross profit in 2017, rising to 41% by 2019E and underpins our positive outlook on the company. Separately, it has a consistently strong plastic pipe business (c.40% of gross profit) which will benefit from coal-to-gas switch projects and may increase volume at a CAGR of c.15% in the next three years. The BOPA business (c.35% of gross profit) will likely see profitability decline but the strong separator and pipe operations should boost its bottom line at 21%/13% YoY in FY17/18E. We initiate coverage with a Buy. Separators: expanding capacity three-fold to catch up with strong demand We believe that the separator industry will continue to face a supply shortage over the next few years due to strong demand and a lack of quality producers, able to provide large scale volume. CZMZ has decided to increase its capacity three-fold by 2019, increasing its global market share from 4% in 2016 to 6% in 2019. Although pricing for industrial separators could continue to decline, CZMZ is likely to maintain high margins above 50% in the next three years, with: 1) cost cuts from technology improvements and economies of scale; and 2) more value-add through coating. Pipe business: a major beneficiary of ‘coal-to-gas switch’ projects The traditional plastic pipe business grew at 25% YoY in 2016, when ‘coal-to-gas switch’ projects were being constructed in Northern China to deal with the smog issue. CZMZ may continue to be one of the major beneficiaries of ‘coal-to-gas switch’ projects in the next three years due to: 1) geographic advantage within the c.500km transportation radius of plastic pipes; 2) capability of providing a full set of pipe products including connectors, which require higher manufacturing technology; and 3) strong client relationships. High visibility growth with a CAGR of 17% 2017-18E; initiating with Buy The BOPA business has outperformed since 2016, the result of an unbalanced market demand/supply after the exit of a major player. However, we believe that super high profitability will revert back to the historical long-term average level of c.15% when more supply is added. Despite this, the strong expanding separator and improving pipe business should boost the bottom line at CZMZ with a CAGR of 17% in 2017-18E and keep ROEs c.20%. We set our target price at RMB26, based on 25x FY18E EPS, which is the average of lithium battery components industry, implying 24% upside potential. Major risks: significant EV subsidy policy changes; capacity expansion being slower than expected (cf p.5).
当升科技 电子元器件行业 2017-06-08 18.43 21.00 -- 25.50 38.36%
29.36 59.31%
详细
Earnings forecast to grow at CAGR of 70% in FY17-19, initiating with Buy. Aggressive capacity expansion to catch up with downstream demand Easpring is one of the largest cathode producers in China, focusing on producing NMC (lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide). The company plans to aggressively expand NMC capacity at its Jiangsu factory in the next three years to catch up with the strong industry demand for NMC. We believe Easpring will be able to maintain high profitability, due to its capability to regularly research and launch leading cathode products like 622/811 NMC. We estimate earnings to rise from c.RMB100m in 2016 to c. RMB500 in 2019E, generating a 3Y CAGR of c.70%. Current trading prices imply 31x/20x FY17/18E EPS. We initiate coverage of Easpring with Buy. Aggressive capacity expansion to catch up with downstream demand. We forecast that global cathode demand for lithium batteries will rise from c.200kt in 2016 to c.400kt in 2019, a 3Y CAGR of 23%. Among all major cathode types, we estimate that NMC demand could rise the quickest, registering a 3Y CAGR of c.45%, due to a structural change in demand. See our FITT report, “Supplying the charge - evaluating the battery component sector” published on 6 June, 2017. In order to catch up with strong downstream demand, Easpring has shifted its focus from LCO (lithium cobalt oxide) to NMC since 2015 and plans to aggressively expand its total capacity from 8ktpa in 2016 to 31ktpa in 2020, mainly for NMC, at its factory in Jiangsu. Stable profitability stemming from continuous launch of leading products. Easpring should be one of the key beneficiaries of the structural industry demand shift to NMC from LFP (lithium iron phosphate). For Easpring, NMC sales volume accounted for c.75% of total cathode shipments in 2016. This proportion should rise further, as more NMC production lines are built and ramped up. We also believe Easpring should be able to stabilise its profitability by: 1) researching and launching leading products (622/811 NMC and NCA) with higher ASP; and 2) lowering unit costs stemming from leading technology and higher utilisation rates, due to a better product mix. Earnings CAGR of c.70% over 2017-19E; initiating with Buy; risks. The machinery business, acquired by Easpring in 2015, should remain a high-margin division, but we estimate that its gross profit contribution could drop from c.30% in 2016 to c.10% in 2019, due to the fast-growing cathode business. Overall, we expect Easpring’s earnings could grow from c.RMB100m in 2016 to c.RMB500m in 2019, implying a 3Y CAGR of c.70%. We use P/E methodology in view of fast earning growth and set our TP at RMB21, 25x FY18E DBe EPS, the average the lithium battery components industry implying ~24% upside potential. Risk: significant China EV policy changes (p.3).
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2017-05-02 6.03 9.00 23.80% 6.56 5.30%
7.64 26.70%
详细
Strong 1Q17 results reported. Baosteel reported FY16 and 1Q17 results on 28 April 2017. Considering thatBaosteel already announced preliminary FY16 results on 18 Jan 2017, webelieve its FY16 earnings should be a non-event. The company’s 1Q17 revenuereached RMB85bn, achieving 26% Bloomberg consensus. A strong 1Q17NPAT of RMB3.79bn was delivered, reaching 32% Bloomberg consensus. Considering that this is the first result after the merger, Bloomberg consensusmay not be comparable. Early win synergies emerged. Baosteel managed to generate strong profitability. Its EBITDA/t of 1Q17reached RMB1083/t. We believe the strong profitability should be contributedby not only the improved steel spread, also the emerging M&A synergy. Givenindependent EBITDA/t records of Baosteel and Wuhan Steel before the merger,together with steel spreads we tracked, it should be a struggle for post-mergerEBITDA/t to reach RMB1000/t. The synergy emerging at initial stagedemonstrated an early win in our view. Strong earnings of 2017 expected. Baosteel’s profitability in 2Q17 may decline as the avg. 2Q17 QTD HRC spreadhas deteriorated by c.RMB250/t than that in 1Q17. However, we forecastindustry profitability is likely to recover in 2H17 and beyond. See our report“Reading through Chinese HRC volatilities” published on 21 April, 2017. Adding up the increasing synergy with the continuous integration and furtherramp-up of Zhanjiang project (Zhanjiang project has already started tocontribute profit in 1Q17, earlier than previous expectation), we believe theremay not be too much discrepancy to map full year earnings by annualizing firstquarter bottom line. We expect Baosteel should be able to realize ROAE ofc.10% in FY17.URemain optimistic about long term industry structural change, Buy reiterated. Baosteel is currently trading at 0.8x FY17DBe BVPS. The valuation isundemanding, given an expected ROAE of FY17 at c.10%. The sustainablestructural change in China steel industry should be able to improve overallindustry utilization rate and profitability in the long term, we reiterate Buy onBaosteel.
赣锋锂业 有色金属行业 2017-05-02 42.03 49.90 -- 45.90 8.97%
63.89 52.01%
详细
FY1H17 preliminary results in line with both DBe and Bloomberg consensus. Ganfeng Lithium announced FY1Q17 results after market close on 27 April 2017. Its 1Q17 revenue was RMB625m, down 5.75% YoY, and its NPAT was reported at RMB136m, up 27.03% YoY. Ganfeng also gave guidance on preliminary 1H17 NPAT between RMB473m to RMB612m, in line with both DBe and Bloomberg consensus, by achieving 45%~58% FY17DBe and 45%~59% of full year Bloomberg consensus. Improved self-sufficiency should boost the bottom line from 2Q17. Ganfeng’s Mt Marion delivered the first shipment of 15kt spodumene concentrates in Feb. We believe the increasing spodumene delivery should significantly escalate the raw material self-sufficiency rate, decrease the avg cost and then improve the profitability. Ganfeng expected that its 1H17 NPAT should arrive at c. RMB473-612m, up 70%-100% YoY. New take or pay deal signed. Ganfeng announced the purchase of no more than a 5% share of the Pilbara project for US$20m. In addition, Ganfeng obtained a take or pay deal of 160ktpa (20kt LCE) spodumene annual shipment after June 2018. We previously pointed out that Ganfeng may still have a slight mismatch of processing capacity and raw material supply capacity (13.5kt LCE shortage of supply in 2019E), assuming that Mt Marion project can fully ramp up. See our report “China Lithium Industry” published on 10th Apr 2017. The new take-or pay deal is likely to fulfill the shortage. Secured raw material supply for aggressive capacity expansion, Buy reiterated . We are optimistic about significant improvement in Ganfeng’s bottom line in the next three years, due to 1) increasing processing capacity from 30ktpa in 2016 to 72ktpa in 2019E and 2) secured raw material sources. Buy reiterated.
赣锋锂业 有色金属行业 2017-04-18 41.91 49.90 -- 45.45 8.21%
51.96 23.98%
详细
FY16 results in line with both DBe and market consensus. Ganfeng Lithium released FY16 annual results after market close on 11 April. The Company reported revenues of RMB2.84bn, up 110% YoY; achieving100% DBe and 97% Bloomberg consensus. The Company also deliveredstrong FY16 NPAT of RMB464m with 271% surge YoY, reaching 98% DBe and92% consensus estimates. Ganfeng Lithium announced cash dividend ofRMB0.1 per share. New largest Chinese convertor in 2019 expected. Ganfeng’s FY16 overall earnings results were in line with our expectation. However, it seems the volume of off-take agreement with Albemarle washigher than our expectation while the off-take agreement ASP and unit COGSwere lower than expected. We believe the off-take agreement impact willgradually fade away when new raw material supply from Mt Marion, its JV inAustralia, start to increase delivery in 2017. We expect Ganfeng to be thelargest Chinese convertor in 2019 with strong volume expansion from c. 27ktpa as of 2016 year end to c.64ktpa in 2019. Limited dilution impact from issuing CB. Ganfeng announced to issue no larger than RMB950m convertible bond beforethe end of 2017 to finance three projects previously announced. The threeprojects are 15ktpa lithium carbonate project, 20ktpa lithium hydroxide projectand 0.6Gwh lithium battery project. Though the interest rate of the CB has notbeen decided, the conversion price is settled as the average stock trading price20 days before the conversion date. Assuming conversion price at RMB43 pershare, Ganfeng expected total number of shares outstanding would increasefrom 729m to 751m as of 2018 year end, implying c. 3% dilution effect. Thehigher the conversion price is, the less the dilution effect. Issuing US$500m bond to expand overseas business. Ganfeng also planned to issue a 3yr US denominated bond with no larger thanUS$500m in Hong Kong in the next 12 months. Considering the amount of thisbond is huge and use of proceeds is to support overseas business, we believean asset acquisition is possible. The details of this US bond remain to be seen. Strong volume growth expected, Buy reiterated. We like Ganfeng on its volume growth in 2017-2019. Please see our ChinaLithium Industry report, “Downgrading Tianqi on demanding valuation”,published on April 10th, 2017. In addition, new raw material supply from MtMarion should help to decrease cost and improve per tonne gross profitsignificantly. We expect Ganfeng’s bottom line should grow at a CAGR of 65%in the next three years. Buy reiterated.
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2017-01-20 7.05 9.00 23.80% 7.02 -0.43%
7.47 5.96%
详细
Strong FY16 preliminary earnings. Baosteel announced FY16 preliminary earnings on 17 Jan 2017. PreliminaryNPAT was indicated as being c. RMB8.8bn, up 770% YoY. This result wouldbeat both DB and market consensus, achieving 121% DB and 115%Bloomberg consensus estimates respectively. Baosteel has not announced anyquantitative details to explain the strong 4Q performance yet. Positive FY17 Outlook, Reiterated Buy. We believe Baosteel is likely to maintain its strong profitability on the back of1) China government’s continuous efforts for supply side reform, and 2)ongoing industrial restocking. Please see details in our report “Asia SteelIndustry – 2017 Outlook – ready for sustainable re-rating” published on 17 Jan,2017.
赣锋锂业 有色金属行业 2016-10-31 31.18 39.12 -- 32.48 4.17%
32.48 4.17%
详细
9M16 results imply higher costs; yet more capacity to be ramped Ganfeng's 9M16 results are lower than DBe. Its COGS is higher than ourexpectations due to price hikes for raw materials from SQM and Albemarle.Thus, we need to factor in these potential higher costs into future COGS.Ramp-up of Ganfeng’s own mining investment, Mt Marion, should help tomitigate cost hikes in coming years. Ganfeng's capacity expansion of 20ktpalithium hydroxide, announced in July, should boost sales volume in 2018 andbeyond. After factoring higher costs and higher volume in coming years, ournew DCF-derived TP is RMB39.2, implying 26% upside potential; maintainingBuy. Disappointing 9M16 results resulting from higher-than-expected costs Ganfeng Lithium announced its 9M16 results after market close on 24 October.Its 9M16 revenues arrived at RMB2bn, up133% YoY and its bottom linereached RMB486m, up 474% YoY. However, its NPAT disappointed ourestimates, only reaching 57% FY16E, although its NPAT was in line withBloomberg consensus. Details of the results are in Figure 1. Meanwhile,Ganfeng also gave guidance on FY16 NPAT at RMB626~688m. Ganfeng’sCOGS is higher than our original assumption. We believe cost hikes should becontributed by high-cost feedstocks from SQM and Albemarle. We also believethat overall COGS of Ganfeng’s lithium compounds and metals have increasedc. 50% YoY in 2016 and higher COGS will likely sustain into coming years. Capacity expansion will likely grow sales volume in 2018 Ganfeng Lithium announced a capacity expansion of 20ktpa lithium hydroxideon 8 July. We believe Ganfeng’s new capacity should be well supplied forfeedstocks in 2018, as Ganfeng’s Mt Marion project in Australia should be ableto supply enough spodumene concentrates to Ganfeng Lithium’s hydroxideplant. As for Mt Marion’s ramp-up situation, the mine has pushed itsoperations start by about one quarter to early 2017. Once Mt Marion is rampedup, we believe Ganfeng’s profitability should see some improvement. DCF-based TP at RMB39.2; maintaining Buy; major risk lithium price correction Based on our new adjustments for its costs and longer-term volume growth,our new DCF-based TP (WACC of 8.6% with a cost of equity of 10% and aterminal growth rate of 3%) is set at RMB39.2, implying 26% upside potential.Ganfeng is trading at RMB31, implying 33x/19x FY16/17E EPS. We believe thevaluation is not demanding in the A-share market. Major risk: significantcorrection for lithium price.
国轩高科 电力设备行业 2016-10-31 35.30 40.17 27.20% 36.88 4.48%
36.88 4.48%
详细
9M16 results missed DBe, but FY16 guidance in line with DBe Guoxuan High-tech announced its 9M16 results after market close on 26 Oct2016. Its total revenue arrived at RMB3,423m, up 128% YoY and its NPATarrived at RMB738m, up 122% YoY. Though the 9M16 results were strong, itmissed both DBe and market consensus for achieving 69% FY16DBe and 63%Bloomberg consensus, respectively. We believe disappointing 3Q16 earnings isa result from slow EV shipment in China market due to subsidy fraudulence.Guoxuan gave 2016 full year guidance at RMB1,023m ~1,198m in line with ourFY16DBe of RMB1,064m. Strong GPM, but deteriorated balance sheet and cash flow Guoxuan recorded an impressive gross profit margin of 49% in 3Q16,improved from 2Q16’s 44% and 1H16’s 47%. We believe the improvementsprings from product mixture. Further explanations from the management areneeded. Guoxuan increased its investments in 3Q16 for capacity expansion.Cash outflow from investments was RMB1,453m in 3Q16, while cash inflowfrom operation was only RMB68m. Company’s net cash significantly droppedfrom RMB1,454m as of the end of FY15 to only RMB52m as of the end of3Q16. In addition, Guoxuan’s AR/AP/Inventory days further climbed from336/507/165 as of 2Q16 to 469/717/216 days as of the end of 3Q16.Furthermore, we also see a financial cost hike as a result of larger loans. 4Q16 re-acceleration of earnings momentum, Buy reiterated Company’s FY16 guidance should imply that Guoxuan will need to run at fullcapacity in 4Q16. Considering that China EV/battery shipments by yearendmight be strong to achieve the government's target, we believe Guoxuan'sbattery capacity fully booked for 4Q16 is indeed possible. As such, Guoxuan’s4Q16 earnings should reaccelerate, in our view. We maintain our Buy rating inlight of this re-acceleration. Currently, Guoxuan is trading at 29x/22xFY16/FY17DBe EPS and our TP for Guoxuan is RMB40.4, implying 14.5%upsides.
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2016-10-26 5.67 7.65 5.23% 6.25 10.23%
7.42 30.86%
详细
Baosteel 9M16 in line with consensus and DBeBaosteel reported its 9M16 results. The company has delivered a top-line ofRMB133.6bn, achieving 78% of full year Bloomberg consensus. Baosteel alsoreported a cost cut of RMB1.1bn. The cost reduction together with improvedmarket condition allowed Baosteel to have an 83% YoY improvement for its9M16 operating profits. The company’s 3Q16 operating profit declined 11%QoQ. Yet, impairment reversal and investment income in 3Q16 enabledBaosteel’s PBT to improve by 9% QoQ. Overall the company’s 9M16 NPATachieved 77% of Bloomberg consensus FY16 estimates and 70% of FY16 DBeNPAT. We deem the results in line with consensus estimates. Baosteel guides FY16 NPAT 600% to 800% YoY growthWith 600% to 800% YoY growth, the company’s 2016 full year NPAT shouldbe ranging from RMB7bn to RMB9bn. That should mean current consensus atRMB7.3bn will potentially move up a bit and also implies Baosteel’s 4Q16 islikely to be QoQ flat. With current spot spreads (proxy for steel millprofitability) off from the 3Q16 average level, Baosteel should have convictionabout its own further cost reductions or strong shipments in 4Q16. Re-iterate Buy on valuationsThough we don’t like the valuation Baosteel paid for the Baosteel-Wugangmerger, the company’s results still demonstrated Baosteel’s own operationsremain best in class in China. While most of its Chinese A share peers aretrading at book value or above, we believe Baosteel trading at 0.8x 2016DBeBVPS remains attractive. As such, we maintain our Buy rating for Baosteel.
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2016-09-26 5.39 7.65 5.23% 5.83 8.16%
7.42 37.66%
详细
Baosteel to take over Wugang via 0.56:1 share swap. On 22 September, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron & Steel (Wugang) announced adetailed plan of their merger. The merger will be completed via a share swap –Baosteel will issue new shares to Wugang’s shareholders to fully absorb thelatter company. Conversion prices have been set based on 90% of the averagemarket prices over the past 20 days – Baosteel at RMB4.60 and Wugang atRMB2.58, which implies a share swap ratio of 0.56:1. After the merger, thetotal number of Baosteel shares will increase from 16,467m to 22,119m. At theparent company level, Baosteel Group will merge with Wugang Group and berenamed Baowu Iron & Steel Group. Trading of the two stocks will continue tobe suspended while the SSE reviews the merger plan. Financially not a great deal. The share swap ratio is ROAE dilutive for Baosteel's shareholders. Baosteel'simplied PBx in the transaction is 0.67x, but Wugang's implied PBx is high at0.96x. However, Baosteel's average ROAE from 2010 to 2014 was 7.9% (weignore 2015 ROAE as it was an extreme year), whereas Wugang's averageROAE in those five years was only 3%. This means that the ROAE of the newcompany (after the merger) will be dragged about 10% lower than Baosteelused to deliver. Meanwhile, the new company's net debt will grow fromRMB54bn to RMB96bn, implying the net gearing for Baosteel growing from47% to c.68%. Without considering any material synergy, the deal doesn’tseem favorable to Baosteel shareholders. Signals to the market mixed. The market might be cheering for the synergy of the merger, including a highermarket share of high-end CRC and GOES, potential cost falls after the merger,and more centralized and efficient procurement and logistics, and so on. However, the transaction might create market concerns about China SASAC'signorance towards minority shareholders' interests because this merger isdilutive to such a good quality asset as Baosteel. This might reduce investors'appetite to invest in China's top SOE assets as there could always beuncertainty about further dilutive mergers. All in all, we like the industryconsolidation and believe in Baosteel management’s capability to create thesynergy. All in all, we like the industry consolidation and believe in Baosteelmanagement’s capability to create the synergy. Provided Baosteel's valuationis still undemanding, we maintain our Buy rating even though we don't like thevaluation of this deal.
宝钢股份 钢铁行业 2016-09-01 5.39 7.65 5.23% -- 0.00%
6.74 25.05%
详细
1H16 results in line with DBe, beat market consensus. Baosteel reported 1H16 results after market close on 30 August. Its revenuewas RMB78bn, down 3% YoY and 6% HoH, achieving 39% of FY16 DBe and46% of Bloomberg consensus. 1H16 NPAT arrived at RMB3.5bn, cf. RMB3.2bnin 1H15 and RMB2.2bn net loss in 2H15. Baosteel 1H16 results were in linewith DBe but beat market consensus, achieving 43% FY16DBe and 68%Bloomberg consensus. The stock trading remains suspended for theconsolidation/restructure with Wuhan Steel. Unit GP improved as expected. Baosteel sold 11.85mt steel products in 1H16, up 11% YoY. Average unit grossprofit of major products improved c.RMB472/t HoH, in line with market HRCconcurrent spread trajectory. 3Q16 QTD HRC spread is similar to that in 1H16. As such, we expect Baogang to maintain its 1H16 profitability in 3Q16. Inaddition, Baogang’s Zhanjiang furnace started production on 15 July, whichshould further boost production volume in 2H16 and FY17 as expected. Increasing interest expense, unlikely to decline in 2H16. Interest expense in 1H16 increased by to RMB1.4bn, up 90% YoY, almost 40%of its NPAT in 1H16. The increasing interest expense was attributable to 1)Converted US$ dominated debt to RMB dominated debt, which resulted inRMB270m interest expense, 2) Expensed financing expense of Zhanjiangproject, previously capitalized, of RMB150m and 3) Financed with new debt ofRMB20bn, which required interest expense of RMB200m in 1H16. Theseinterests seem to be the recurring expense, unlikely to drop in 2H16. We expect healthy sales volume growth, Buy reiterated. Trading of Baosteel has been suspended since 27 June, owing to theconsolidation/restructure with Wuhan Steel. As the Zhanjiang base ramp-upprogressed, Baosteel is the only company under our coverage for which weexpect healthy sales volume growth in 2017/2018. Buy reiterated.
国轩高科 电力设备行业 2016-08-26 36.69 40.17 27.20% 37.88 3.24%
37.88 3.24%
详细
1H16 NPAT up 141% YoY, in line with expectation Guoxuan High-Tech announced 1H16 results on 22 August. Its 1H16 revenuewas RMB2,399mn, up 169% YoY and 29% HoH, achieving 44% FY16 DBe and40% of Bloomberg consensus. Guoxuan grew its 1H16 NPAT to RMB534mn,up 141% YoY and 47% HoH, representing 50% of FY16 DBe and 45% ofmarket consensus. We remain optimistic about company’s performance in2H16, with the expectation that China government’s modified EV subsidypolicy may be settled in 2H16. Buy reiterated. Gross margin of battery business remained resilient in 1H16 Guoxuan’s topline grew 169% YoH to RMB2,399mn, driven by China EV sales– up 127% YoY to 170k units. Revenue from battery increased 45% HoH and161% YoY to RMB1,989mn. Gross margin of battery remained as high as 50%in 1H16. We believe its gross margin will be maintained in 3Q due to rawmaterial price drop recently and battery ASP may remain resilient in 3Q. Positive operating cashflow Guoxuan managed to generate positive operating cashflow in 1H16 atRMB112mn. And the company remain in net cash, though its ratio deterioratedfrom 48.2% as of 2H15 to 12.9% as of 1H16. Cash decreased due to significantcash outflow for CAPEX to expand capacities. 3Q preliminary results in line, Buy reiterated We expect company’s operation may remain stable in 3Q as it was in 2Q, andmay improve in 4Q16 when subsidy policy may be settled down in 2H16. Management guided 9M16 NPAT to c.RMB697mn-797mn, up 110%-140%YoY, representing 67%-75% FY16 DBe. Buy reiterated. Key risks: unexpectedchanges in subsidy policies and EV demand; and quicker-than-expected ASPdrop or slower-than-expected cost cut.
赣锋锂业 有色金属行业 2016-08-25 33.09 38.92 -- 33.50 1.24%
33.50 1.24%
详细
Ganfeng 1H16results beat consensus but miss our estimates Ganfeng Lithium announced 1H16results after market close on 21August.1H16revenue was RMB1,343m, up 147% YoY and 66% HoH, achieving 52%of FY16DBe and 44% of Bloomberg consensus. Ganfeng recorded NPAT ofRMB278m, representing 34% of FY16DBe and 58% of Bloomberg consensus,a miss on DBe but beating consensus. Excluding a non-recurring loss ofRMB47m resulting from Mbell’s (Ganfeng's subsidiary) fire accidents, NPAT ofGanfeng should achieve c. 40% FY16DBe. Higher–than-expected COGS Lithium products revenue reached RMB1,189m, in line with our expectations.However, COGS of lithium products were higher than our expectations.Without enough raw materials (spodumene concentrates) secured in 1H16, webelieve Ganfeng had to purchase raw materials at a higher cost. Gross profit ofGanfeng’s lithium only reached c.38%, much lower than Tianqi’s 77% duringthe same period. Lithium carbonate prices should stabilize in 4Q16 Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have peaked out from RMB148k/t inApril, dropping to RMB118k/t (VAT excluded) as of 19August. Without theChinese government’s modified EV subsidy policy settled, demand growth ofdownstream EV batteries was less impressive. With the expectation that theChinese government will announce the modified subsidy policy in 2H16, webelieve lithium carbonate prices may stabilize in 4Q16. Raw material supply should be secured since 4Q16 With the ramp-up of the Mt Marion project (Ganfeng owns 43% of thisupstream asset) since 4Q16and the project likely eventually supplyingc.42ktpa LCE of spodumene concentrates by year-end 2017, Ganfeng shouldmaterially improve its profitability and earnings. As such, we expect thatGanfeng will be able to further grow its bottom line.
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*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名