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晶盛机电 机械行业 2021-02-19 42.42 50.20 32.56% 43.10 1.60%
43.10 1.60% -- 详细
我们对2021至2022财年公司的增长前景持乐观态度,因为大尺寸硅片正在以高于预期的速度迅速扩张获取市场份额,越来越多的新参与者进入光伏硅片制造行业,刺激对晶体生长炉的强劲需求。此外,我们认为半导体设备方面的进展或可提升公司估值。我们将2020-22年盈利预测上调7%-12%,并将目标价上调至50.20元人民币,对应50倍2021年预测市盈率及2020-22年38%每股盈利年复合增长率。维持买入评级。 大尺寸硅片的快速普及带来更强劲的设备需求。光伏产业下游对大尺寸硅片(M10/G12)的强劲需求及其溢价加速了硅片生产商的产能扩张。据我们估算,主要光伏硅片制造商规划的2021年新增产能达到145GW,较我们之前预估高20%,且绝大部分将用以生产G12硅片。此外,我们估计现存1/3以上的晶体生长炉无法透过升级来生产大尺寸硅片,意味着未来几年市场将迎来一轮设备更换。 在中环和新玩家产能扩张推动下,晶盛有望巩固和提升市场份额。公司核心客户中环股份(002129CH,未评级)于2月宣布将扩充50GWG12硅片新产能,并预计将于2022年底达产,这将支持晶盛2022到23年的收入增长。此外,我们相信,凭借公司在晶体生长炉上强劲的技术实力,公司有望通过赢得硅片制造行业新玩家的订单来扩大其市场份额,包括上机数控(603185CH,未评级)、通威(600438CH,未评级)和高景集团等。 半导体设备进展或有助提升公司估值。晶盛于2月8日宣布向其全资子公司求是半导体增资5,000万元人民币,以增强其半导体设备生产的竞争力。公司目前已具备提供大多数8英寸晶圆生产设备、12英寸晶圆晶体生长设备以及SiC晶体生长和外延设备的能力,使其能够受益于中国半导体产业的国产化趋势。截至2020年第三季度末,公司半导体设备订单额为4.1亿元人民币,占未完成订单总额的7%。 由于A股上市的半导体设备商的估值(>100倍2021年预测市盈率)远高于太阳能设备商的估值(<50倍2021年预测市盈率),我们认为公司半导体设备业务的进步将有望提升其估值。 目标价至提升至50.20元人民币;维持买入评级。公司于今年1月发布盈喜,预计2020财年净利润同比增长25%-50%至7.97-9.56亿元人民币;区间中枢(8.77亿元人民币)对应2020年四季度单季净利润3.53亿元人民币,同比大幅增长113%。 我们认为公司超预期的业绩表现或来自毛利率回升及确认收入的增长。我们将2020-22年公司的盈利预测上调7%-12%,以反映订单量的增加和毛利率的逐步改善。我们给予公司的最新目标价为50.20元人民币,基于1.3倍PEG(此前为1.2倍)和2020-22年38%的每股收益年复合增长率,对应50倍2021年预测市盈率。 维持买入评级。 风险因素:1)下游产能扩张乏力或慢于预期;2)毛利率趋势逊于预期;3)客户付款能力下降。
未署名
中际旭创 电子元器件行业 2021-02-05 50.35 72.66 115.35% 52.33 3.93%
52.33 3.93% -- 详细
2020财年净利润基本符合预期;第四季度稳健增长。公司预计2020年净利润为人民币7.80-9.05亿元(同比增长52%-76%),基本符合我们/市场预期,主要受益于大型云公司(例如Google,Amazon,Facebook,Microsoft)的资本开支增长和400G光模块升级。虽然在2020年第四季度中国5G部署放缓,但低毛利产品出货占比减少,我们预计收入/净利润同比增长25%/62%(第三季度同比增长+57%/56%)。 预计2021年二、三季度需求加速。展望2021年,我们认为由于季节性因素,公司业务第一季度环比小幅回落,进入第二、三季度,公司业务将随着海外客户数据通信需求激增而有明显提振。作为全球最大的100G/200G/400G光模块供应商,以及在电信市场上的份额提升,我们相信中际旭创将是数据流量增长和400G数据通信升级的主要受益者。我们预计公司在2020-22财年将会实现29%/37%的收入/净利润复合增长率。 维持买入评级,目标价人民币72.66元。重申买入评级,并将目标价调整至72.66元人民币(基于41.9倍2021财年预测市盈率)。当前股价为29.7倍2021财年预测市盈率(低于2年平均值1个标准差)。相较于37%的2020-22财年每股收益复合年增长率,我们认为公司估值还有上涨空间。潜在风险包括全球云公司资本支出疲软,5G基础架构部署放缓以及公司产品平均售价降幅压力过高。
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生益科技 电子元器件行业 2021-02-05 22.22 29.45 22.40% 27.64 24.39%
27.64 24.39% -- 详细
生益科技公布 2020年业绩快报,收入/净利润为人民币 146.87亿元/16.63亿元,同比增长 11%/14%,低于我们/市场预期 12%/10%。公司 2020年 4季度收入/净利润同比增长+6%/-11.6%。我们认为未及预期的主要原因包括:1)2020年第 4季度 5G 部署速度放缓,导致电信需求疲弱;2)铜价上涨,但成本端压力并未快速转移给下游客户,使利润率承压。我们将 2020-22财年盈利预测下调 10-13%,以反映更为保守的预期。基于 2021财年 30倍市盈率的假设不变,我们将目标价格下调至 29.45元人民币。我们认为覆铜板价格将在 2021年第一季度开始上涨,预计生益在未来 1-2季度毛利率将有所改善。维持买入评级。 5G 部署放缓和成本上涨导致 2020年第四季度业绩疲软。由于生益在电信领域的收入份额超过 30%(2019年:CCL 的 30%,PCB 的 47%),我们认为未及预期的主要原因是 1)2020年 5G 基站部署基本于前三季度完成,导致电信需求在第四季度疲软,以及 2)原材料价格的上涨并没有及时的向下游客户的转移(例如铜),导致公司毛利率下降。考虑到铜价将会持续上涨,我们预计生益将在 2021年第一季度开始提高覆铜板均价,预期公司 2021财年的毛利率将逐步回升。 粘结片和覆铜板新增产能将推动未来业绩增长。生益上周宣布投资扩建年产 1,140万平方米高性能覆铜板及 3,600万米粘结片项目。项目总投资 9.45亿元人民币,使用自有或自筹资金实施。总建设工期为 15个月,预计 2022年 9月投产。项目满产后,预计新增产能将带来额外年销售收入/净利润 13.19亿元/1.43亿元人民币。 新产品线将满足 HDI 领域、5G 通讯领域用高速产品及消费类电子、汽车、智能终端、可穿戴设备产品使用的覆铜板以及粘结片的发展需求。我们认为,这将有助生益实现收入多元化,并加速向消费电子和汽车市场的扩张。 维持买入评级,目标价人民币 29.45元。我们将 2020-22财年每股收益预测下调10-13%,并将目标价下调至人民币 29.45元(基于 30倍 2021财年预测市盈率),以反映更为保守的收入和利润率假设。当前股价为 23.8倍 2021年财年市盈率,接近历史平均下 1个标准差,我们认为当前估值有上涨空间。短期催化剂包括覆铜板价格上涨和 5G 基站招标。潜在风险包括原材料成本转移慢于预期以及 5G 升级延迟
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中际旭创 电子元器件行业 2021-02-04 54.18 72.66 115.35% 52.33 -3.41%
52.33 -3.41% -- 详细
Innolight announced FY20E preliminary net profit of RMB780mn-905mn, up 52%-76% YoY, with mid-point of RMB843mn (+64% YoY) largely in-line with our/consensus estimates of RMB870/863mn. By 4Q20, we estimate revenue/netprofit of RMB1,909mn/252mn, up 30%/62% YoY. The strong result was driven byrobust data traffic and increasing capex from global/china hyperscalers. Weslightly adjusted our estimates for 4Q20results, and revised our TP to RMB 72.66is based on same 42x FY21E P/E (2-year historical average). Innolight nowtrades at lower end of its historical valuation band, and we believe concerns overhyperscale capex slowdown in 2021is overdone. Reiterate BUY. Upcomingcatalysts include stronger cloud capex and 5G deployment.FY20NP largely in-line; Solid growth in Q4. Innolight reported FY20preliminary net profit of RMB780-905mn (+52%-76% YoY), largely in-linewith our/consensus estimates, mainly driven by global hyperscale capexfrom major cloud companies (e.g. Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft)and rapid 400G upgrade. For 4Q20, we estimate revenue/net profit grew25%/62% YoY (vs +57%/56% YoY in 3Q20), given slower China 5Gdeployment but improving margins due to better product mix and yield of400G products.Expect strong demand pick-up in 2Q/3Q21E. Looking into FY21E, weexpect weaker 1Q21E on seasonality and sequential demand pick-up into2Q/3Q21E, driven by datacom demand ramp from overseas clients. As theglobal largest supplier of 100G/200G/400G optical modules and increasingpresence in telecom market, we expect Innolight to become the majorbeneficiary of secular data growth and 400G datacom upgrade cycle. Weexpect Innolight to deliver 29%/37% revenue/NP CAGR during FY20-22E.Maintain BUY with new TP of RMB72.66. We reiterate BUY and adjustedour target price to RMB72.66based on same 41.9x FY21E P/E, after slightrevision of our forecasts. Trading at 29.7x FY21E P/E (1-sd below 2-yearavg.), we think the stock is attractive, compared to 39% EPS FY20-22ECAGR. Potential risks include weaker capex from global cloud companies,slower deployment of 5G infrastructure and higher ASP pressure.
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生益科技 电子元器件行业 2021-02-03 23.39 29.45 22.40% 27.64 18.17%
27.64 18.17% -- 详细
Shengyi Tech announced FY20 preliminary results with revenue/net profit of RMB14,687mn/1,663mn, up 11%/14% YoY, and earnings is 12%/10% below our/consensus estimates. By 4Q20, revenue/net profit grew +6%/-11.6% YoY. We believe the miss is mainly due to 1) weak telecom demand on slower 5G deployment in 4Q20 and 2) margin pressure with copper price hike given delayed cost transfer to downstream clients. We cut FY20-22E estimates by 10-13% to reflect more conservative assumptions, and trimmed our TP to RMB29.45 based on same 30x FY21E P/E. We expect Shengyi’s GPM to improve in next 1-2 quarters given that CCL price will start to rise in 1Q21E. Maintain BUY. Weaker 4Q20 due to slower 5G deployment and cost hike. With over 30% revenue exposure to telecom segment (2019: 30% of CCL, 47% of PCB), we believe the miss was mainly due to 1) weaker telecom demand with soft 5G BTS deployment in 4Q20, and 2) lower gross margin given delay of cost transfer (e.g. copper) to downstream clients. Given continued copper price hike, we expect Shengyi will start to raise CCL ASP in 1Q21E, and gross margin will gradually improve in FY21E. Capacity expansion of prepreg and CCL to drive future growth. Shengyi announced a new project last week to add 11.4mn sq m capacity for CCL and 36mn m capacity for prepreg. Total investment is RMB945mn which will be funded by own capital or financing. Total construction period will be 15 months, and production will start in 3Q22E. Shengyi expected new capacity to generate RMB1,319mn/143mn revenue/net profit each year. The new product lines will cover HDI, 5G communications, consumer electronics, auto and wearables. We believe it will help Shengyi to diversify revenue sources and accelerate expansion into consumer electronics and automobile markets. Maintain BUY with new TP of RMB29.45. We trimmed our FY20-22E EPS by 10-13% and lower TP to RMB29.45 (same 30x FY21/P/E), reflecting more conservative revenue and margin assumptions. Trading at 23.8x FY21E P/E, close to 1-sd below historical P/E, the stock is attractive in our view. Near-term catalysts include increase in CCL price and 5G BTS tenders. Potential risks include slower-than-expected transfer of material costs and delay in 5G upgrades.
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歌尔股份 电子元器件行业 2021-02-02 33.20 46.90 36.54% 36.44 9.76%
38.66 16.45%
详细
歌尔股份发布业绩快报,2020财年收入/净利润同比增长64%/123%,达到其先前净利润指引上限(+115-125%)。我们对公司前景持正面看法,由于AirPods/Watch/HomePod上升周期、产品组合优化以及AR/VR需求回升。我们将2021/22财年每股收益提高16-18%,以反映收入增长和利润率微调。我们的新目标价为人民币46.9元,基于35倍2021财年预测市盈率(此前为40倍),因为近期行业景气回调。我们认为近期市场担心管理层变动而导致股价下跌,鉴于公司产品储备以及2020-22年EPS复合增长36%的高确定性,我们认为目前是良好买入时机。维持买入评级。 4Q20业绩亮眼,AirPods势头强劲,良率提高。公司2020年四季度业绩理想,收入/净利润为人民币229亿元/8.38亿元,同比增长108%/184%。我们将其归因于1)AirPods份额更高和良率提升,2)AR/VR产品需求强劲(新Oculus),以及3)新产品(AirPodsMax,HomePodmini)的需求好于预期。我们预测精密组件/智能声学(AirPods/Homepod)/智能硬件(手表/VR)2020年收入分别同比增长20%/65%/59%。 2021年展望:AirPods和AR/VR将成为双重增长引擎。我们预测2020/21财年AirPods出货量同比增长45%/22%至9400万/1.15亿,公司市场份额将由2020财年的23%扩大至2021/22财年的37%/41%,带动AirPods收入同比增长103%/23%。此外,在2020下半年OculusQuest和SonyPSVR新产品周期的支持下,我们预计2021/20财年公司VR/AR领域将恢复40%/30%的同比增长。 宣布股份回购计划。歌尔股份宣布新的股票回购计划,总额为5-10亿元人民币,每股价格不超过39.0元,相当于1,282-2,564万股,占流通股总数的0.39-0.78%。我们认为股票回购表明管理层对公司前景充满信心。 维持买入评级,新目标价人民币46.9元。我们将2021-22财年每股盈利预测上调16-18%,以反映强劲的收入和微调的利润率。我们预测较市场预测高11%/7%,而我们的新目标价为人民币46.9元,基于35倍2021年财年预测市盈率(由于近期行业气氛疲软,下调此前的40倍)。我们认为近期回调为买入提供良好机会。
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信维通信 通信及通信设备 2021-02-01 32.28 46.70 74.91% 35.18 8.98%
35.68 10.53%
详细
Sunway released FY20E earnings preview with net profit growth between -4.9% and 4.9%, with mid-point of RMB1.0bn which is 23%/24% below our/consensus estimates. By 4Q20, we estimate revenue/net profit of RMB1,832/274mn, up 18% /42% YoY. We believe the miss is mainly due to slower antenna, GPM pressure, higher R&D and RMB appreciation. We cut FY20-22E estimates by 17-27% to reflect more conservative assumptions, and trimmed our TP to RMB46.7 based on same 31.4x FY21E P/E. We expect near-term pressure on stock price, but we maintain our positive view on Sunway’s antenna/wireless charging with 32%/51% sales CAGR in FY20-23E given strong 5G smartphone shipment and rapid adoption of wireless charging. Maintain BUY. Weaker 4Q20 due to slower antenna and FX impact. We believe the miss was mainly due to 1) slower antenna and GPM pressure due to competition, 2) product launch delay of major clients; 3) domestic client impact on macro uncertainties, 4) foreign exchange loss due to RMB appreciation, and 5) higher R&D expense and share-based compensation. By 4Q20, revenue/net profit grew 18%/43% YoY, and GPM came in at 34.0% (vs 33.3% in 4Q19). Positive outlook for 5G antenna upgrade and wireless charging. As global leader in antenna and wireless charging, we expect Sunway to accelerate category expansion in both Apple/Android camp ranging from smartphones to tablets to AIoT (Watch/TWS/band). We forecast antenna to grow 32% FY20-23E CAGR, driven by share gain for LDS antenna and 5G antenna upgrade. Also, we expect Sunway’s wireless charging to grow 51% CAGR in FY20-23E given share gain in iPhone/iPad/wearables, Android adoption and product launch of transmitters (e.g. Magsafe and Airpower). Maintain BUY; lower TP to RMB46.7. We adjusted our estimates and lower TP to RMB46.7 (same 31x FY21/P/E) to reflect more conservative revenue and margin assumptions. We expect near-term pressure on stock price, but we recommend to accumulate after correction as we believe Sunway will benefit from 5G smartphone shipment and rapid adoption of wireless charging. Potential risks include slower-than-expected market share gain and delay in 5G upgrades.
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泰格医药 医药生物 2021-02-01 171.11 187.23 28.83% 194.00 13.38%
194.00 13.38%
详细
Earnings beat in 2020. Tigermed announced positive profit alert that its attributable net profit in 2020 rallied 100-115% YoY to RMB1,683-1,810mn (higher than our estimate of 90% YoY growth), and attributable recurring net profit grew 20-33% YoY to RMB670-742mn (vs our estimate of 23% YoY growth). Tigermed recognized RMB1.0-1.1bn one-off fair value gains and investment gains in 2020 vs RMB283mn one-off gains in 2019. Strong growth momentum continued despite challenging COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Recall that Tigermed’s operation was interrupted by COVID-19 in the first half of 2020. As the pandemic got largely controlled in China, clinical trial operations started to normalize from 2Q20, leading to recovery in Tigermed’s domestic revenue. However, the pandemic remained serious in overseas regions such as the US and Europe. As a result, the overseas CRO demand, such as data management services and Frontage's BIO, CMC, DMPK services, were negatively impacted. In 1H20, Tigermed received 42% of total revenue from overseas and 40% of gross profit from overseas. We forecast Tigermed to register 27% YoY revenue growth in 2H20E, accelerating from 9% YoY growth in 1H20. Looking into 2021, we expect the COVID-19 epidemic to gradually ease thanks to the wide availability of vaccines, which will drive further business recovery for Tigermed. We expect Tigermed’s revenue growth to accelerate to 30% YoY in 2021E and 28% YoY in 2022E. Global expansion to drive long-term growth. Given China’s large patient pool, international pharmaceutical companies are including China as one site in MRCTs to speed up the enrollment of patients. Meanwhile, Chinese biotech companies are initiating more MRCTs for the purpose of product registration in overseas countries. Tigermed provides clinical CRO services for Chinese innovative drugs to go global and multinational enterprises’ drugs to enter Chinese market. Meanwhile, we expect Tigermed to further expand its overseas business network to become a clinical CRO company with global operations. The Company already has established networks in Asia Pacific regions, while US market could be the next emphasis. Maintain BUY. We raised our 2020E/21E net profit forecasts by 8.2%/0.3%, respectively, to factor in one-off gains and strong core business growth. We raised our DCF-based TP to RMB187.23 (WACC: 9.84%, Terminal growth: 4.0%).
未署名
中兴通讯 通信及通信设备 2021-01-29 33.50 41.70 48.19% 33.34 -0.48%
33.34 -0.48%
详细
ZTE announced FY20preliminary results with revenue/net profit growth of +11.7%/-15.3% YoY, largely in-line with our/consensus estimates, thanks to solid growthacross all segments, share gain in China and improving profitability overseas. By4Q20, revenue/net profit grew 3%/62% YoY to RMB27.3bn/1.66bn. In a mixedbackdrop of global 5G deployment and macro uncertainties, we believe ZTE iswell positioned to seize the opportunities from “New Infrastructure” initiative and5G network upgrade amid Huawei uncertainties. We slightly revised our forecastsand raised our TP to RMB41.7based on same 31.2x FY21E P/E. Catalystsinclude 5G BTS tenders and 2021operator capex budget.n FY20largely in-line; Solid growth across all segments. Despitechallenges from COVID-19and macro uncertainties, ZTE achieved salesgrowth of 11.7% YoY in FY20E, driven by solid growth from both domesticand overseas markets and all three business segments (carrier’s network,consumer business and government/corporate business). Net profit declined15.3% YoY in FY20, mainly due to one-time asset disposal gain in 3Q19.n Improving operating and financial metrics. ZTE reported record-highoperating cashflow of RMB10.23bn in FY20E, up 37.4% YoY, while gearingratio improved to 69.5% from 73.1% in FY19. We believe ZTE will continueto improve its working capital and optimize balance sheet structure.n Major beneficiary of global 5G deployment. As we believe Chineseoperators will kick off next 5G BTS tender in 1Q21E, we expect 5G BTS net-adds to reach 800k/1mn (including CBN) in FY21E/22E and ZTE’s 5G marketshare in China will gradually ramp to 35% (vs 30% in FY20). Thanks to globaleconomic recovery and resumption of 5G BTS rollout post COVID-19, weexpect domestic/overseas revenue from carrier’s network to grow at 9%/18%CAGR during FY21-23E.n Reiterate BUY; Lift TP to RMB41.7. We adjusted our forecasts to reflectbetter operating leverage and new FX assumptions. We slightly raised ourtarget price to RMB41.7based on same 31.2x FY21E P/E, in line with 2-yearhistorical forward P/E. Trading at 25.5x FY21E P/E (1-sd below 2-year avg.),we think the stock is attractive, vs 26% EPS FY21-23E CAGR. Risks includeUS-China disputes, component restriction and 5G deployment delays.
未署名
中联重科 机械行业 2021-01-26 11.78 17.80 56.41% 15.59 32.34%
15.85 34.55%
详细
Reiterate BUY. We are more bullish on Zoomlion given: (1) High certainty onconcrete machinery growth in 2021E; (2) Explosive growth of excavator sales; (3)Resilient margin outlook. We raise our 2020E-22E earnings forecast by 6-7%after modelling higher sales volume across different segments. We believe theconsensus remains conservative and our new net profit forecast for 2021E/22Eare 13%/15% above that. We raise our TP from RMB9.56to RMB17.8, based on16x 2021E (up from 10x). Key catalysts: (1) strong machinery sales in 1Q21E, (2)completion of share placement in 1Q21E.n 2020E preliminary results. Zoomlion released a positive profit alert last week,stating that net profit in 2020E is expected to grow 60-72% YoY to RMB7.0-7.5bn. This implies net profit of RMB1.3-1.8bn in 4Q20E, up 46%-102% YoY.We estimate Zoomlion achieved revenue of RMB20bn from concretemachinery (+44% YoY) and RMB35bn from crane machinery (+58% YoY) in2020E. Besides, we believe gross margin in 4Q20rebounded QoQ, helped bycost control.n High certainty on concrete machinery growth in 2021E. Zoomlion expectsthe industry growth rate of concrete machinery to reach 15%, driven by 10-20% of growth of pump truck and 20% growth of mixer truck. Zoomlion seeshigh certainty on concrete machinery as many infrastructure projects will enterthe construction stage this year after the completion of earthworks in 2020.Besides, the implementation of National Emission Standard (NES) VI startingin Jul 2021will continue to boost replacement demand.n Explosive growth of excavator to continue. We estimate Zoomliondelivered 7k units of excavator and generated RMB2.5bn revenue in 2020E.Zoomlion targets to achieve 12-14k units of excavator sales in 2021E,representing a substantial growth YoY. For medium size excavators, Zoomlionis able to leverage its existing sales network for concrete machinery to speedup the penetration. Besides, Zoomlion, for the first time, delivered large sizeexcavators (45-48t) starting this year. Zoomlion maintains its strategic targetto become the top 5player in China in 3years and top 3player in 5years.
未署名
恒立液压 机械行业 2021-01-25 121.52 143.00 76.09% 131.29 8.04%
131.29 8.04%
详细
Profit surprise in 2020E. Hengli’s net profit in 2020E is expected to surge 58%-77% YoY to RMB2.05-2.3bn. This implies net profit of RMB575-828mn in 4Q20, up 52%-118% YoY. The earnings growth was driven by strong downstream demand (excavator) that boosted the sales of hydraulic cylinders, pump and valve, market share gain, as well as the reduction of SG&A expense ratio. We forecast a solid growth of excavator demand in 2021E. For the industry as a whole, major manufacturers of excavator delivered sales volume of 328k units in 2020, up 39% YoY, according to CCMA. In 4Q20, excavator sales grew 61% YoY. In 2021E, we expect excavator demand to grow 10% YoY (industry), driven by infrastructure spending growth, continuous trend of the substitution of labour and wheel loaders. We expect Hengli to deliver strong sales in 1Q21E. We estimate Hengli production volume of hydraulic cylinder (for excavator) surged 75% YoY in Jan. Besides, we expect the production volume of pump, valve and motor to remain strong. Based on our new assumptions, we forecast Hengli’s sales volume of hydraulic cylinder (for excavator) to grow 20% YoY in 2021E, while sales volume of pump and valve to grow 40% YoY. Structural growth trajectory remains solid. We forecast Hengli’s market share in hydraulic cylinder to increase from 50% in 2020E to 59% in 2022E. Besides, we expect pump & valve for large-size excavators, as well as non-standardized hydraulic components for various industries will serve as key drivers over the coming few years. Key risks: (1) Slowdown of construction activities; (2) risk of overseas expansion; (3) increase in raw materials cost.
未署名
比亚迪 交运设备行业 2021-01-13 231.80 293.20 103.48% 273.37 17.93%
273.37 17.93%
详细
比亚迪发布了优秀的12月汽车销售数据。新能源汽车销量达2.9万量,其中旗舰车型汉出货量超1.2万辆。2020全年新能源汽车销售占比达44%。展望2021年,我们仍然能看见多项刺激比亚迪业务发展的催化剂,包括1)新的DM 乘用车型发布将继续推升车辆销售;2)与滴滴合作车款的推出将引领电召车辆更新周期;3)动力电池产能扩张将支持更多的电动汽车销售;以及4)半导体业务的分拆上市将释放业务价值。我们将比亚迪的目标价上调31%至293.2元人民币。重申买入评级。 新能源乘用车12月销售加速。比亚迪发布了 2020年 12月销量公告。汽车销量 5.6万辆,同比+30%/环比+4%。12月新能源汽车实现2.9万辆,同比增长120%(其中乘用车2.8万辆,同比+157%,商用车1,247辆,同比-48%)。汉销量继续爬坡,12月共交付1.2万辆,环比增长19.6%。全年累计销量 42.7万辆,同比-7%, 大致符合我们预期。 中国新能源汽车销售将在2021年加快。展望2021年,我们判断中国新能源汽车销量将继续提升。由于1)主机厂新能源车型投放力度加大,2)C 端消费者认知度提升,3)B 端网约车首轮更新潮来临以及4)磷酸铁锂车型逐步推出,我们预计新能源汽车渗透率有望超出此前预期。具体而言,我们预计2021年新能源汽车渗透率有望达到7%,对应销量为192万辆,同比增长57%(新能源乘用车166万,新能源商用车26万)。 2021年公司新能源汽车销量料同比增长99%。2020年比亚迪受疫情及新车发布较晚影响,新能源汽车渗透率有所下滑至15%。自2021年开始,公司将启动新车换标,并投放秦Plus(基于最新超级混动DM-i 平台),宋ProDM 等新车型,将提振新能源汽车销量,驱动新能源汽车方面将继续保持强势复苏态势。在to B 端,我们预计比亚迪与滴滴的合作车型D1有望在网约车换购周期中抢得先机,我们预计2021年滴滴有望实现6万辆。由于其在新能源汽车方面将继续保持强势复苏态势,我们预计比亚迪在新能源乘用车市场占有率有望继续提升至20%,对应销量36.4万辆,同比增长99%。我们认为比亚迪将把业务重点逐步转向新能源汽车方面,因此燃油车2021年增速将较为保守,预计销量达到24.4万辆,同比增长3%。 2020年盈利将达人民币53亿。基于公司的汽车销量和销售组合,我们对公司2020年全年的盈利测算上调1%至人民币53亿元。同时,我们对2021年新能源乘用车销量预测自30万量上调至36.4万量。基于上述展望调整,我们将2021年全年盈利预测上调11%至人民币77亿元。
未署名
比亚迪 交运设备行业 2021-01-13 231.80 293.20 103.48% 273.37 17.93%
273.37 17.93%
详细
BYD delivered outstanding auto sales in Dec. NEV sales reached 29K withflagship Han EV shipment exceeded 12k units in Dec. NEV sales volume hadaccounted for 44% of total auto sales in 2020. Looking ahead in 2021E, we stillsee several positive catalysts for BYD from 1) new DM EV model to boost sales;2) cooperation with DiDi to take the lead in the ride-hailing renewable cycle; 3)power battery capacity expansion to support EV sales; and 4) semiconductorsegment spin-off to release business value. We revised up BYD’s TP by 31% toRMB293.2. Reiterate BUY rating.n NEV sales speeded up in Dec. BYD announced that total auto sales volumeachieved 56K units in Dec, +30% YoY/+4%MoM.In Dec, NEV reached 29K,+120%YoY (NEPV 28K/+157%YoY, NECV 1K/-48%YoY). Delivery of Hancontinued to climb with a total of 12K units in Dec, up 19.6%MoM. The annualcumulative sales volume was 427K units/-7%YoY, in line with CMBIexpectation.n China NEV sales growth to accelerate in 2021E. We expect that the salesvolume of NEV in China will continue to rise at a high speed in 2021E. Given1) the strong NEV pipeline among all major OEMs; 2) the product recognitionfrom retail consumers; 3) the beginning of the first round of replacement cyclein ride-hailing business; 4) the gradual introduction of LFP version for existingmodels, we expect the penetration rate of NEV will exceed marketexpectations. Specifically, we expect the penetration rate of NEV to reach 7%in 2021E, with a corresponding sales volume of 1.92mn units, representing anincrease of 57% (1.66mn NEPV/260K NECV). NEV sales volume to increase 99% in 2021E. We estimate BYD’s NEVmarket share declined to 15% in 2020, due to epidemic impacts and laterelease of new vehicle model. Starting from 2021, BYD will use a brand newlogo and launch several new models including Qin Plus (based on the latestsuper hybrid DM-i platform), Song Pro DM, etc. We expect those measureswill boost its NEV sales. At the to-B end, we expect the cooperation model D1between BYD and DiDi to take lead in the ride-hailing renewable cycle. Weestimate D1 to have 66K units shipment in 2021E. As we believe theCompany’s NEV sector to maintain strong recovery, we expect BYD's marketshare in NEPV to continue to rebound to 20%, and that will boost NEV salesvolume to 364K units in 2021E, +99%YoY. We think BYD will gradually shiftits business focus to NEV from ICE (61% vs 39% in 2021E), and maintainrelatively stable ICE vehicle sales at 244K units, +3% YoY.
未署名
三一重工 机械行业 2021-01-12 40.30 49.50 63.26% 48.90 21.34%
50.30 24.81%
详细
We see potential re-rating opportunity on SANY given that: (1) excavator demandwill continue to be driven by structural drivers, making the upcoming sales moresustainable; (2) SANY’s digital transformation strategy will help widen itscompetitive edge over competitors; (3) Overseas expansion will offer hugeopportunity. As such, we believe market will gradually price SANY as a growthstock instead of a cyclical growth. We revised up our earnings forecast in 2020E-22E by 6-14%. Our new TP of RMB49.5is based on 22x 2021E PE (up from 17x),on the back of 22% earnings growth in 2021E. We believe surprise on excavatordemand in 1Q21E will serve as a strong near-term catalyst. Reiterate BUY.Digital transformation to enhance global competitiveness. SANY startedthe digital transformation of intelligent manufacturing years ago, which hasenabled SANY to gradually achieve higher production efficiency. In 2019,SANY’s revenue per employee reached US$590k, surpassing that ofCaterpillar (CAT US) (US$530k). Going forward, with the commencement ofmore light tower plants and further digital transformation, we expect SANY’sglobal competitiveness will be further enhanced.n Overseas opportunity. Caterpillar generated ~60% of revenue outside theUS, while Komatsu (6301JP) generated >70% of revenue outside Japan foryears. We see huge potential for SANY to expand outside China given thatoversea accounted for <20% of total revenue between 2019and 1H20. Withenhancing products quality and the continuous sales network construction, webelieve overseas markets will become an important revenue driver over thecoming years. We believe the increase in overseas exposure will smooth theearnings trend of SANY going forward, which will help boost the valuation.Higher industry forecast on excavator. According to CCMA, excavatorsales by major producers in China increased 39% YoY to 328k units in 2020,a record high. Going forward, we see the continuous replacement of labour,substitution of wheel loader and tightening emission standard as structuralgrowth drivers. We revise up our excavator demand growth forecast in 2021Eto 10% from 3%. Based on the feedback from the upstream supply chain, weexpect the excavator demand growth will remain strong in 1H21E. We expectexcavator sales growth of >70% YoY in 2M21E, which should surprise themarket on the upside.Key risks: (1) Risk of overseas business due to pandemic; (2) Slowdown ofconstruction activities; (3) Risk of expanding to financing business.
未署名
恒立液压 机械行业 2020-12-16 102.08 114.40 40.87% 137.66 34.86%
137.66 34.86%
详细
我们认为,在以下几个因素推动下,恒立液压20-22年盈利存在上升空间:(1)短期:12月恒立的排产计划意味着液压缸产量将环比增长20%,增长较预期强劲;(2)中期:在国产品牌挖掘机主机厂(恒立的客户)市场份额不断上升的背景下,恒立市场份额将稳步上升;(3)长期:泵阀以及其他产品的进口替代趋势明显。在上调销量和毛利率假设后,我们将20-22年盈利预测上调8-10%(较市场预期高9-10%)。我们一如既往偏好恒立在高端液压件行业的稳固地位,及实现进口替代的明确路线图。我们把目标价由87元上调至114.4元人民币,基于55倍2021年预测市盈率(较42倍的历史平均水平溢价30%)。 2021年挖掘机需求强劲。根据中国工程机械工业协会数据,主要挖掘机制造商在2020年前11个月销量为29.6万辆,同比增长37%。我们预计全年销量增长将达40%。在基建投资增长和挖掘机人工替代的趋势推动下,我们预计2021年挖掘机需求增速将较我们现时预测的3%增长为高。 恒立的增长是由结构性因素驱动的。我们预计2021年挖掘机需求的个位数增长将足够为恒立提供20%的收入增长,鉴于中国挖掘机制造商——其中大部分是恒立客户如三一重工(600031CH,买入)——市场份额扩张,这将有助提升恒立的市场份额。我们预测恒立液压油缸市场份额将由2020年的52%上升至2022年的61%。此外,我们预计大型挖掘机的泵阀以及各种行业的非标准化液压组件亦将驱动恒立增长。 最新生产计划显示2021年第一季度需求强劲。根据恒立12月的排产计划,液压缸(挖掘机用)预定产量将达到7.9万台,环比增长20%。我们预计这将转化为2021年1月全行业挖掘机需求约4万台,将大幅高于今年1月行业销量的9,900台。另一方面,我们预计恒立液压泵阀12月环比增长强劲。 主要风险:(1)建筑活动放缓;(2)海外扩张风险;(3)原材料成本增加。
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1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
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