迈瑞医疗于5月25日举行投资者日，重点介绍了未来2-3年的研发方向及当前进展，生命信息与支持、IVD及超声三大业务线均将在2025年完成升级换代并达到世界一流水平。我们总结了主要亮点：1）三大产线打造智能化应用生态；2）多模态融合构建产品独特竞争力；3）新兴业务支撑长期稳健增长。 生命信息与支持：公司将围绕急救、手术、麻醉、病房、新生儿科、重症六大学科，基于多模态数据融合，打造独具竞争力的智能化生态。比如在重症监护领域实现状态监护，实时跟踪识别病人状态变化，提前预警。在呼吸领域，通过多维数据及智能算法，分析患者通气状况，预测患者脱机成功率，辅助医生提高通气治疗质量。在麻醉领域通过麻醉决策系统实现给药效果度量及术中给药的自动闭环。目前，公司在上述智能化研究中均取得不错进展，在恶化状态识别的灵敏度、不协调事件的识别种类及准确率方面均优于人工识别或行业现有算法，并实现了静吸复合麻醉的辅助决策。我们认为公司具备多产线优势，可融合多维医疗数据并整合学习，帮助公司率先实现更高质量的智能化应用，巩固公司的行业领先地位。 体外诊断：公司目标在2025年实现血球、生化、化学发光三大子板块全面一流，并继续拓展尿液、凝血、流式、微生物及糖化等子业务，探索分子诊断与微生物质谱。设备层面，公司持续深耕高速化、自动化与智能化；试剂层面，公司在收购海肽生物后加强了试剂开发与创新能力，通过多种自研技术增强试剂灵敏度及抗干扰能力等性能，以满足高端市场复杂临床场景的需求。此外公司积极针对海外需求开发产品，以支撑海外业务的快速增长。 医学影像：公司超声设备将在2025年完成全线超高端突破，并通过多设备融合（如超声与监护机、呼吸机、硬镜）、创新成像技术及AI智能化平台植入全面辅助临床诊疗，形成差异化竞争。我们认为公司平台化优势有利于整合多领域技术，实现创新多模态数据融合，引领临床诊疗管理新业态。 新兴业务：微创外科作为迈瑞医疗目前投入最大的种子业务，预计到2025年将实现腔镜全系列的自主研发和生产，并推出四合一能量平台及吻合器等高值耗材。展望未来，公司还将立足数字化布局术中导航和手术机器人。我们认为，随着公司微创外科产品布局逐渐完善，微创外科业务将维持高速增长势头，为公司增长提供新动能。 维持买入评级，目标价396.48元人民币。我们预计迈瑞医疗主营业务的高端突破及新兴业务的高速发展将推动公司稳健增长，基于9年的DCF模型，维持396.48元人民币的目标价（WACC：8.5%，termialgrowthrate：3.0%）。

2022年公司实现营收303.7亿元，同比增长20.2%；归母净利润96.1亿元，同比增长20.1%，符合预期。毛利率略微下滑至64.2%（-0.8ppt），主要是由于疫情抑制常规体外诊断试剂需求，试剂收入占比下降，体外诊断板块毛利率降低。公司盈利能力稳中有升，2022年归母净利率达31.4%（+0.3ppt）。2023年一季度，公司保持稳健增长，实现营业收入83.6亿元，同比增长20.5%；归母净利润25.7亿元，同比增长22.1%。毛利率则提升至66.4%（+1.3ppt），我们认为这主要受益于一季度国内疫情导致的ICU相关设备需求大幅增长。 三大核心业务稳步增长，龙头地位持续增强。(1)生命信息与支持：得益于国内医疗新基建的持续推进及海外市场的高端突破，2022年板块收入同比增长20.2%。2023年，财政对医疗新基建的支持力度仍处高位，财政部已提前下达用于支持公立医院综合改革和医疗卫生机构能力建设的补助资金近120亿元，并计划通过补助资金及结转资金共计2,000亿元，支持提高医疗卫生服务能力。(2)体外诊断：凭借多个重磅仪器的亮眼装机表现，22年板块收入实现同比21.4%的快速增长，其中化学发光增速近30%。因试剂业务受疫情负面影响，板块毛利率下降至60.4%（-2.1ppt）。随着医院运营复常，常规试剂消耗逐步复苏，公司体外诊断业务有望持续高速增长，同时带来毛利率改善。借助安徽省化学发光集采，22年公司在当地化学发光业务实现超85%的增长，市占率超20%。我们认为，23年体外诊断试剂仍有较大可能进行集采，将帮助公司加速高端渗透，扩大市占率。(3)医学影像：高端超声的迅速上量带动板块收入同比增长19.1%，其中超声增长超20%。常规诊疗的恢复及海内外持续的高端突破有望带动超声业务快速增长。 海外新兴市场加速发展，欧洲市场短期承压。22年，公司海外高端市场持续突破，公司海外收入同比增长16.9%，其中北美和拉丁美洲发展迅猛，增速分别达31.4%和33.7%，欧洲市场受宏观环境影响，收入有所下降。我们认为，公司产品较之于国际品牌更具备性价比优势，因此公司在新兴市场的业务有望持续快速增长，成为公司海外业绩增长的主要驱动力之一。 种子业务发展势头良好。22年微创外科业务增长超60%，其中硬镜系统增长超90%。我们预期，随着22年底超声刀系统及23年新一代4K荧光硬镜的推出，公司微创外科产品布局逐渐完善，微创外科业务将维持高速增长势头，为公司增长提供新动能。 维持买入评级，目标价396.48元人民币。我们预计23E-24E公司收入和净利润将继续保持年复合20%的稳健增长，基于9年的DCF模型，给予396.48元的目标价（WACC：8.5%，termialgrowthrate：3.0%）。

收入增长稳健，盈利能力提升。迈瑞医疗长期保持稳健发展，经营效率持续提升。2021年收入突破 250亿元，是中国收入体量最大的医疗器械公司。由于规模效应体现，公司盈利能力稳步提升，净利润率从 2014年的 11.4%提升至2022年前三季度的 34.8%。对标国际医疗器械巨头例如美敦力、强生，公司仍具备广阔的成长空间。 高研发投入助力管线拓展和新品迭代，打开成长天花板。迈瑞医疗坚持技术创新的发展内核，长期保持高水平研发投入，不仅在常规业务板块不断实现纵向高端迭代，而且积极扩充业务布局，横向拓展种子业务，加速释放其业务潜力。公司相继推出的 N 系列监护仪，A9超高端麻醉机，BC-7500血液细胞分析仪、高端超声 R 系列等均为公司带来海内外高端客户突破，保障了公司核心业务的稳步增长；种子业务微创外科也在 2022年前三季度实现翻倍增长。展望2023年，公司的超高端超声有望实现国产空白突破，为迈瑞医疗的超声市场份额提升带来积极推动。迈瑞医疗的种子业务动物医疗、微创外科和骨科均具备超百亿市场空间和国产替代潜力，可为公司的长期增长提供新动能。 医疗新基建保持高景气度，国产医疗设备加速国产替代。自 2020年以来，医疗新基建不断深入，财政等各部委三年间共计投入超 1,564亿元支持医疗新基建项目，2022年底的财政贴息贷款政策更是为医院的设备采购需求提供资金保障。2023年初，财政部再次强调要进一步加强医疗资源建设投入，并提前下达用于支持公立医院综合改革和医疗卫生机构能力建设的补助资金近 120亿元，预示着后疫情时代医疗新基建仍将快速推进，中国医疗器械市场将持续扩容。 我们认为，迈瑞医疗凭借其完备的产品管线和强大的品牌影响力，将继续在本轮医疗新基建中优先获益。 全球化布局引领海外市场加速突破。迈瑞医疗多年来坚持走国际化发展道路，强大的产品实力也为公司的海外高端突破注入动力。2022年上半年，海外地区贡献公司整体收入的 39.6%。2022年前三季度，迈瑞医疗在北美市场凭借高端监护仪和麻醉机系列成功进入大型 IDN 医联体，收入实现超 30%的快速增长。 本地化营销策略和售后赋能，也助力公司在发展中国家市场的发展，2022年前三季度实现超 20%的收入增长。目前，迈瑞医疗在全球医疗器械市场的占有率仍偏低，但我们预期，随着各产线逐步迈入国际一流行列，产品的国际竞争力不断提升，公司的海外收入将持续增长。 首次覆盖给予买入评级，目标价 407.74元人民币。我们预计 2022E-2024E 公司收入和净利润将保持 20%的年复合增长，基于 9年的 DCF 模型，给予 407.74元的目标价（WACC：8.5%，terminal growth rate：3.0%）。

We believe recent pullback offers good buying opportunities as we expect Luxshare to deliver strong earnings growth of 59%/54% YoY in 3Q/4Q22E (vs 34%/14% YoY in 1Q/2Q), driven by Apple’s product launches in 3Q22and margin recovery in 2H22E. In addition, following several strategic M&As in 2020/21, we believe Luxshare started to benefit from gaining share in iPhone’s top module, Macbook/iPad’s casing and Watch OEM in 2H22E. The stock now trades at 18.3x FY23E P/E, close to 1-sd below 5-yr average P/E. Reiterate BUY and rollover TP to RMB52.3, based on 30x FY23E P/E. Poised to benefit from Apple’s new products and margin recovery in 2H22E. As the major OEM/component supplier of Apple’s iPhone/ Watch/ Airpods, we believe Luxshare will benefit from Apple’s new products in 3Q22and gradual margin recovery in 2H22E. In particular, we are positive on 1) share gain of top module in two iPhone models, 2) blended ASP hike of iPhone 14pro/pro max, and 3) share gain of Watch/Airpods OEM. As profitability continues to improve into 2H22E, we forecast earnings growth will accelerate to 59%/54% YoY in 3Q/4Q22E (vs 14%/34% YoY in 2Q/1Q22). Strategic cooperation with Chery to pave way for auto tier-1business. Chery Auto announced on 16Sep to invest RMB100bn in next five years to enhance competitiveness in smart EVs and partnership with supply chain as part of its Yaoguang 2025programme. As the close partner with Chery Auto for both own-brand and JDM projects, Luxshare is well positioned to capture growth opportunities in auto components, starting from high-voltage cable/harness products. Luxshare started to expand into auto component products since 2011, and established a strong product offering, including special-purpose wiring harnesses/connectors, telematics control units (TCUs), central gateway modules, and camera/LiDAR system for NEVs. Recent correction is overdone; Reiterate BUY. We believe Luxshare’s operating efficiency will continue to improve with solid demand of iPhone/ Macbook/iPad products ahead, and its NPM will gradually recover through the learning curve. The stock now trades at 18.3x FY23E P/E based on our estimate, close to 1-SD below 5-year hist. avg P/E. Reiterate BUY with rollover TP of RMB52.3(64% upside). Catalysts include iPhone share gain, Watch/Airpods shipment upside and NEV business progress.

Sanya’s Omicron subvariant BA.5.1.2 outbreak has led to ~700 positive cases asof yesterday, and has prompted the city to initiate lockdown again subsequent tothe one in April this year. In response to this, CTGDF has suspended its Sanyaoperation (Sanya DFS Mall phase 1 and 2) starting from 5 Aug (same day as thelockdown was initiated) until further notice. Judging from past experience, weestimate that Sanya’s social distancing policies will last for a month or so. Thiswould undoubtedly put a pause on the recovery that we have seen in June andJuly, when August is at the core of the summer travel season. The incident hasprompted us to lower our 2022E revenue by 14.9% considering also thepreliminary results announcement for 2Q. Meanwhile, we raise our 2022E GPMby 1.4pp to factor in an improved discount discipline of the Hainan’s duty freebusiness, and these in aggregate explain to an 8.1% cut in our 2022E net profitsand put us 6.6% below consensus. That said, similar to many other outbreaks inthe past, any disruptions from lockdowns to tourist traffic would only representtemporary drags to share price, in our view. If the situation gets under controlwithin August, we still see scope for travel demand to recover sequentially into4Q, particularly when the quarter is seasonally clustered with festivals andshopping campaigns. We remain BUY-rated. An update on Hainan’s current outbreak. 827 confirmed positive caseswere reported during 1-7 Aug in the province, with 689 cases being reportedin Sanya. Local government has initiated a lockdown and implemented city-wide nucleic acid tests. Meanwhile, inbound/ outbound flights, and publictransportations are suspended. Tourists are permitted to return home only ifthey are tested negative after completing the 7-day risk screening tests (i.e.,negative nucleic acid test results on day 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7). Solid July momentum. The Department of Commerce of Hainan Provincereported over RMB5bn (+21% YoY) sales for offshore duty-free operatorswith RMB4bn duty-free sales (+9% YoY). The number extended from thestrength in June in which CTGDF reported a 13% YoY sales growth. Valuation. Our new TP is based on an updated 45.0x (from 46.5x) roll-forward mid-23E P/E (from end-22E) which still represents 2-year averagesince 2020. We raised our target multiple in our last upgrade report to reflectthe potential re-rating driven by the sequentially recovering, though bumpy,domestic tourist traffic over 2H22. (YE 31 Dec) FY20A FY2

Strong 1H22 results. WuXi AppTec reported 1H22 revenue of RMB17.8bn, up 69% YoY (71%/66% YoY for 1Q/2Q22), attributable recurring net income of RMB3.8bn, up 81% YoY (106%/65% YoY for 1Q/2Q22), and attributable adjusted Non-IFRS net income of RMB4.3bn, up 76% YoY (118%/49% YoY for 1Q/2Q22). Earnings are in line with our forecasts with 1H22 revenue / adjusted Non-IFRS net income accounting for 46%/51%, respectively, of our 2022 full-year estimates. Revenue growth in 1H22 would have further accelerated by 7.2 ppts to 76% YoY and adjusted Non-IFRS GPM would have improved by 1.9 ppts YoY to 38.1% under constant currency exchange rates. The management increased its revenue growth guidance to 68-72% YoY from 65-70% YoY for 2022E, supported by its solid RMB35bn backlog (+76% YoY) in 1H22. WuXi Chemistry delivered phenomenal growth despite COVID-19 interruptions, driven by strong growth from both COVID and non-COVID projects. WuXi Chemistry revenue jumped by 102% YoY in 1H22, mainly driven by the 145% YoY revenue growth of chemical CDMO services. Based on our estimates, the Company booked ~RMB4.2bn revenue from commercial-stage COVID-19 projects in 1H22, accounting for ~32% of WuXi Chemistry revenue. Excluding the commercial-stage COVID-19 projects, the segment revenue still achieved robust growth of 37% YoY in 1H22, indicating a sustainable demand from non-COVID-19 projects. Driven by the successful one-stop CRDMO business model, we forecast revenue of WuXi Chemistry to increase 104%/11%/30% YoY in 2022E/23E/24E, representing a 43% CAGR in FY21-24E. Cell and gene therapies (CGT) CDMO segment turned positive growth. CGT CDMO service revenue rebounded strongly to 36% YoY growth in 1H22 from a 3% YoY decline in 2021, thanks to the steady increase in the number of CGT pipeline projects, from 57 as of end-2021 to 67 as of 1H22. The Company’s revolutionary AAV manufacturing technology, TESSA, has gained large interests from global clients. Six large biotech/pharma companies are testing TESSA technology and one large pharma client has already initiated TESSA technology licensure in 1H22. Given the significant yield improvement (30-40x) and cost saving (10-40x) compared with conventional production method (i.e., plasmid transfection), we think TESSA has the potential to become a game-changer in global CGT CDMO market. Expedited globalization pace. Besides the ongoing constructions of large-scale drug product manufacturing facilities in Delaware, US, WuXi AppTec announced to further invest US$1.4bn in next 10 years to build full-suite R&D and manufacturing capabilities in Singapore. Singapore sites will commence operations by 2025/26 which will enable the Company to better facilitate the growing and diversified client demand. Maintain BUY. We maintained our TP at RMB185.17, based on a 10-year DCF model (WACC: 10.94%, terminal growth rate: 3.0%).

Innolight announced a positive profit alert. 1H22NP to shareholders is expectedto grow 32.03-55.51% YoY to RMB450mn-RMB530mn. 1H22NP excludingextraordinary items is expected to grow 29.85-55.82% YoY. Mid-point NP ofRMB490mn is estimated to account for 44.2% of FY22NP, in line with ourprevious forecast. The mgmt. attributed the growth to surging data demand (for400G/200G optical modules) and continuous capital expansion from datacenterclients. We maintain BUY rating with unchanged TP of RMB45.60.1H22results in line with our previous forecasts. Mid-point 2Q NP toshareholders is expected to grow 31.2% YoY and 25.4% QoQ. The Companyalso mentioned GPM increased in 1H22, driven by favorable product mix(higher % of 400G/200G in terms of shipment), effective cost mgmt. andimpact from FX changes. We think 2Q results are in line with our previousforecasts. This positive profit alert confirmed our view that optical transceiverindustry is one of a few sectors that managed to maintain their steady growth.Datacenter demand to remain resilient in 2H22despite concerns overdemand and spending cut. As earning season is coming, the market islooking for more clarity over demand/supply. We expect mobile and PCdemand to remain weak, and the supply chain will continue to face challengesfrom inventory adjustment. However, we believe data center and auto marketswill continue to outperform due to resilient demand. Although there are signsof capex cut, we maintain our positive outlook. We think cloud companies’infrastructure capex will be one of the last to be affected, given these spendingwill support business to outperform during tough economy.Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP of RMB45.60. Innolight is a majorbeneficiary of cloud capex growth. Product mix will continue to improve asclients will deploy 800G optical modules starting from year end or early 2023.Maintain BUY. TP of RMB45.60is equivalent to 26x 23E P/E, close tohistorical 2-year average (25x).Potential risks include weaker capex from global cloud companies, slowerdeployment of 5G infrastructure and faster-than-expected tech advancement.

We initiate Wingtech with BUY and TP of RMB93.12. We hold an optimistic view as the Company has expanded into the semi IDM and optical imaging module market successfully in recent years, transitioning from a top ODM manufacturer. New business units can immediately boost the Company’s top line (FY21: RMB13.8bn semi rev on top of RMB38.7bn ODM rev) and improve profitability as new BUs have higher NPMs (FY21 NPM: 19.1% for semi vs. 0.5% for ODM). The Company emerges as a more resilient hardware play with more diversified and lucrative businesses. Our TP of RMB93.12 is based on 25x FY23 P/E, which is 2SD lower than its historical mean (46x). Business in transition. Through two acquisitions, Wingtech successfully enters new markets with big TAMs and better growth outlook. The Company also reduces its reliance on smartphone ODM and moves to other diversified ODM markets (e.g. AIoT, auto). Revenue growth slowed down during this period (FY21: 2% YoY). We expect a rebound with a higher growth starting from 2022 as revenue contributions from new BUs grow faster (2022-24E CAGR: Semi IDM/Optical module 41.6%/100.5% vs. ODM 26.2%). Outlook is bright. 1) For ODM, we believe the Company’s new projects will start to contribute to revenue in 2022/23. Product mix in ODM is expected to improve (higher contribution from non-mobile: 6.7% in FY20 vs. 25.2% in FY22E) that can offset weakness in mobile market. 2) For semi IDM, this segment grew 40% YoY in FY21, showing Wingtech’s capability of business integration. Riding on the localization tailwind in China with a global footprint of factories and diversified client base, we expect the semi IDM business will continue to deliver stellar results (semi IDM rev CAGR of 41.6% in 2022- 2024E). 3) For optical module business, Wingtech has shipped products to tier-1 clients and passed its rigorous verification process in 2021. We expect this segment will return to profitability in 2022. Share price looks attractive as most bad news are priced in. Wingtech’s share price has been corrected by 41.9% YTD vs CSI300 down by 9.6%. We talked to mgmt. recently and believe the Company’s operation remains normal. In our view, the current share price has already factored in many uncertainties and looks attractive with forward P/E at 2SD below its historical mean. Upside catalysts: 1) Better-than-expected earnings result; 2) new 12-inch factory to begin production in 2H; 3) ODM’s new projects to contribute in 2H. Downside risks: 1) macro challenges such as overseas inflation, slowdown in economic growth; 2) geopolitical tension that could disrupt supply chain.

We believe the worst for CTGDF is likely over, upon signs of re-opening in Shanghai from June onwards and the gradual rollout of pro-growth policies. While domestic travelling, in our view, might not stand at the forefront to see immediate benefits from the re-opening, expectation of travel resumption has been building up towards 3Q with reference to the cases over past few years. From here, we see scope for travelling demand to recover sequentially into 4Q, particularly when the quarter is seasonally clustered with festivals and shopping campaigns that catalyze leisure spending. Earnings-wise, 2Q should look dismal given a c.90% decline in airport traffic to Shanghai Airport and that to Hainan, in our view, unlikely to look significantly better. City-wise lockdown could also represent a temporary hiccup in delivery logistics for online sales. That said, our channel check suggested that margins have been holding relatively well during 5.1, as contrasted to our previous expectation that underpinned our HOLD rating. Consider also when consensus gradually edges towards our below-market estimates (we were 6%+ below), CTGDF’s risk-reward is turning more favorable to us. We recommend investors to look past the weak 2Q, which is gradually being priced-in, and we upgraded CTGDF to BUY with a higher TP of RMB232 (from RMB192). Earnings revisions. We cut our 2022E revenue by c.17% as a result of 1) a 19% cut in 2022E revenue of Shanghai Airport/ Sunrise; and 2) an 18% cut in 2022E Hainan offshore duty-free related revenue which now stands at RMB67bn (from RMB81bn). Separately, we raised our 2022/23E GPM by 1.5/1.3pp. These in aggregate explain a 12% cut in our 2022E net profits. We are still c.6% below consensus. Hainan’s duty-free related sales target. We also lowered our forecast from the official RMB100bn to RMB80bn, based on an 80%+ market share (2021: c90%) that CTGDF could achieve on the island. Valuation. Our new TP is now based on 46.5x (up from 34.0x) end-22E P/E which represents 2-year average (up from -1sd below average) since mid- 2020. We raise our target multiple to reflect the potential and imminent re-rating which will likely be fueled by the sequentially recovering, though bumpy, domestic tourist traffic.

1Q22was a beat, thanks to better GP margin. We highly appreciate Midea’s shift of focus to generate better than industry’s growth in the next 3years. Therefore, we maintain BUY but fine-tuned TP to RMB 67.79, based on 15x FY22E P/E (down from 22x), vs China/ Int’l peers’ avg. of 13x/ 14x.n FY21results inline and 1Q22results beat. For FY21, sales/ net profit grew by 20%/ 5% YoY, 4%/0% above BBG est., while 1Q22, sales/ net profit increased by 10%/ 11%, 0%/8% above BBG est.. For FY21, domestic/ overseas sales growth were 25%/ 14% YoY, and ToC/ ToB sales growth were 13%/ 39% YoY. Within ToB business, Industrial Technology/ Building Technologies/ Digital Innovation/ Robotic & Automation sales growth were 44%/ 55%/ 51%/ 23%. We find 1Q22results impressive, given the drag from pandemics, and the beat should be attributed to GPM improvement (+0.5ppt YoY to 22.2% in 1Q22), driven by ASP increases and better product mix. We are now more optimistic about GPM in FY22E, driven by more raw material hedging and CNY depreciation.n Aiming to “optimize sales and improve margins” in FY22E. We believe Midea maintains its guidance of “~10% sales and ~10% NP growth” in FY22E, supported by its robust ToB sales growth and its focus on “optimize sales and improve margins”. We think the actual drivers are: 1) premiumization, where COLMO sales could reach RMB 8.0bn (vs RMB 4.0bn in FY21with 300%+ YoY), 2) ramp up of overseas business, as more than 600Chinese management are deployed in various regions since last year and entered into more POSs and e-commerce platforms and 3) development of ToB business.n Beware of potential sector downturn and the shift to ToC businesses is important. Management is highly cautious about home appliances demand for the next 3years and believes its ToB business can become a new growth driver, which mainly consists of Building control, Auto parts supply chain, Energy control and Automation businesses. Sales accounted for 22% in FY21, and we expect to reach ~30% by FY25E, with a 17% sales CAGR during FY21-25E. For auto parts supply chain, Midea has edges in drive system, thermal management system and auxiliary driving system. It has secured orders from Volkswagen, and already touched base with Tesla. For KUKA business, orders are extremely robust, as Midea had entered BYD, CATL and Apple’s supply chain, and we expect it to deliver sales volume of 30K/ 50K- 60K in FY22E/ 23E (vs about 20K at the time of acquisition).n Maintain BUY but cut TP to RMB 67.79(16% upside). We reiterate BUY and cut FY22E/ 23E NP by 7%/ 6% to factor in a weaker GP margin. Our new TP is based on 15x FY22E P/E (down from 22x due to sector downturn). It is now trading at 13x 22E P/E (vs China/ overseas peers’ avg. of 13x/ 14x).

We had a mgmt. call with GalaxyCore recently. As the global No.1 smartphoneCIS provider (based on shipment), we remain positive on the company’s outlook,given that 1) new CIS production line is expected to begin pilot production in Q2/Q3this year, 2) overall CIS ASP will increase due to favorable product mix and 3)additional capacity of DDIC will contribute revenue in 2H22E. Maintain BUY withadjusted TP of RMB34.1 based on revised earnings and new target multiple.n FY21 revenue/NP grew 8.4%/62.8% YoY. GalaxyCore’s slower-than-expected FY21 revenue growth was largely due to weaker smartphone marketgrowth and unfavorable product mix. Global smartphone shipment grew at 4.5%YoY in 2021, turning positive for the first time since 2017 but still lower thanpre-pandemic level. Due to the semi shortage and increasing CIS content persmartphone, the demand for 2MP/5MP CIS was strong. The unfavorableproduct mix led to limited revenue growth for FY21. Looking forward, suchheadwind is expected to ease as the domestic production of 8MP willgradually pick up. Meanwhile, profitability significantly improved (NPM: 18%in FY21 vs. 12% in FY20).n Positive outlook for its high-end CIS competitiveness as the company istransforming from fabless to fab-lite. GalaxyCore is currently leading inlow- to mid-end CIS market and developing its high-end CIS products. Seniormgmt. (CEO, COO, etc.) are experienced in fab operations. Given thisstrength, we are positive on its high-end CIS competitiveness once the newproduction line begins mass production by the year end. We expect the fab-lite business model will secure capacity and serve as a foundation for techadvancement to gain market share in high-end CIS.n Maintain BUY rating with TP adjusted to RMB34.1. We adjusted our TP toRMB34.1 based on revised earnings for FY22E and lower P/E multiple of 47x(previously 50x) given that investors are cautious under current macroenvironment and weak Android OEMs outlook. We raised NPM forecast dueto improved profitability and favorable product mix. Potential risks include 1)weaker-than-expected market growth and semi shortage, 2) intensifiedcompetition and 3) slower-than-expected development of its CIS 12-inchproduction/manufacturing lines.

在面临较为混乱的上下游价格关系及市场环境背景下，隆基二季度及上半年业绩表现超出我们预期。公司成功通过系列提价将上游成本上涨压力实现转移，同时多晶硅库存储备也帮助公司维持上半年毛利率水平（二季度整体毛利率仅环比下跌0.9PCT）。管理层对于下半年持谨慎展望。结合目前硅片价格处于年内高点，我们仍旧认为公司能够继续通过顺价转移成本压力。币我们将目标价自人民币110元略微下调至人民币105元，对应2022年市盈率39.6倍。维持买入评级。 二季度表现超预期。隆基上半年实现收入人民币350亿，同比增长67%。收入增长主要受组件销量增长所驱动，组件销售量实现同比增长152.4%。销售费用呈显著提升态势，主要受海外组件出货航运成本大幅增加所致。而其他费用方面则维持大致稳定态势。公司上半年实现净利润人民币49.93亿元，同比增长21%，隐含二季度净利润实现人民币24.91亿元，与一季度利润水平大致持平。结合供应链价格关系不顺及下游需求不振，我们认为公司能够实现如此成绩殊为不易，业绩表现超出我们预期。 成本压力向下游转移。隆基上半年在硅片业务实现了较好的毛利表现，主要通过1）释放低价多晶硅库存支持利润率；2）上调价格实现成本压力转移。上半年价格上调六次，我们测算硅片销售均价可增加42%，支持公司硅片业务维持较好的利润水平。展望下半年，由于硅片销量仍然受制于硅料供应量，我们预期顺价转移成本压力机制仍将持续，直到电池片端产生负反馈。我们认为这样的局面将继续支持硅片业务维持较好毛利率水平。 全年目标仍按计划进行。隆基维持全年硅片/组件出货量分别为80GW/40GW目标不变，并且上半年已分别实现全年目标的48%/43%。管理层认为组件销售端将面临挑战，因目前组件价格已达到下游可接受价格临界水平，每瓦人民币1.8元。在此基础上价格进一步上涨将影响平价光伏项目开发意欲。上半年组件销售业务受去年四季度签下的低价订单影响挤压的毛利率。展望下半年，随着组件价格逐步提升，将逐步反映上游价格涨幅，我们预期组件端的毛利率压力将有所缓解。依托于公司一体化产能优势，我们认为公司将能够实现其全年颇具雄心的组件销售目标。 略微下调目标价至每股人民币105元。隆基目前估值水平为2021/22年预测市盈率38/34倍。尽管估值水平领先于同业，我们认为公司仍处于快速扩张轨道上。我们的目标价为人民币105元，基于2022年39.6倍预测市盈率。维持买入评级。

The recent rounds of solar wafer capacity expansion plans announced by major players offer high visibility to Jingsheng’s potential order intakes of crystal growing furnace over the coming two years, which reaffirms our bullish stance on the Company. Besides, the on-track progress on silicon carbide (SiC) equipment development will offer new growth opportunity. On the cost side, Jingsheng is managed to collaborate with suppliers to limit the component cost pressure. We revise up our 2021E-22E earnings by 14%/34% and lift our TP to RMB60.90, based on 53x FY21E P/E (previously 50x), equivalent to 1.1x PEG (48% EPS CAGR in 2021E-23E). Reiterate BUY.n Aggressive capacity expansion by wafer manufacturers. Based on our project-by-project calculation, major solar wafer makers have announced in 1H21a total of 184GW of wafer capacity construction plan with total capex of RMB55bn (Figure 1). Majority of these new capacities are scheduled to put into operation in 2022-23E. Such expansion is faster than our expectation and we believe Jingsheng is set to benefit from the strong spending growth.n Jingsheng’s growth to be driven by both Zhonghuan (002129CH, NR) and other new players. Zhonghuan, Jingsheng’s largest customer, plans to boost the wafer capacity significantly to 135GW by 2022E from 55GW as at end-2020(Figure 2). Besides, Gaojing Solar, a fast-growing new player, plans to add 50GW of wafer capacity by 2023E. We believe Jingsheng, by leveraging its technological know-how, brand equity and solid track record, will be capable of winning orders from Gaojing and other fast growing wafer manufacturers.n On-track progress on SiC equipment. SiC is the third-generation semiconductor materials. According to CASA, the global SiC power device industry size is expected to grow from ~US$0.7bn in 2020to >US$3bn in 2025E, with major downstream demand coming from new energy vehicles. Jingsheng has planned to deliver 60-100sets of SiC crystal growing equipment this year. Given that the development is still at the beginning stage, we have not modelled the earnings contribution but see potential upside from there.n Risk: 1) Weaker or slower-than-expected solar power capacity expansion; 2) lower-than-expected gross margin.

比亚迪半导体业务分拆上市有序推进，成为短期股价上涨催化剂。货币政策转向预期引发近期股价回调，但我们仍旧看好公司中长期上涨动力，基于1）比亚迪新能源汽车龙头地位有望随DM-i 系列产能释放获得巩固；2）电池外供年内有望落地；3）缺芯背景下，比亚迪半导体上市估值有望超预期。我们重申公司买入评级，目标价人民币275.6元。 比亚迪公布4月销量数据。4月实现总销量45,234辆，同比增长42%/环比增长40.4%。新能源车型方面，乘用车方面销售25,662辆，同比增长97.48%，其中包括纯电动车型16,114辆、插电式混合动力8,920辆，以及新能源商用车628辆。汉4月出货量为8,177辆，与中国其他电动车制造商相比，汉销量仍处于领先地位。 DM-i 系列有望成为爆款。以唐DM-i 为例，其采用了骁云-插混专用1.5L 涡轮增压高效发动机、EHS 电混系统以及专用功率型刀片电池。发动机热效率达到43%，同时油耗仅为5.3L/100km，综合续航达到1,050km。我们认为DMi在售价及使用经济性方面获得大幅度提升。根据目前订货-交付周期，我们认为比亚迪DM-i 系列已获得消费者认可，将随着刀片电池产能释放有望成为爆款。 比亚迪半导体创业板上市有序推进。5月11日晚，比亚迪发布了关于分拆其半导体业务至创业板上市的预案。比亚迪股份直接持有比亚迪半导体72.30%股权，为比亚迪半导体的控股股东。比亚迪半导体主营业务为功率半导体、智能控制 IC、智能传感器及光电半导体的研发、生产及销售，主要产品涵盖IGBT、SiC MOSFET、MCU、电池保护 IC、AC-DC IC、CMOS 图像传感器、嵌入式指纹识别、电磁及压力传感器、LED 光源、LED 照明、LED 显示等。 我们认为在半导体逆全球化以及车规级半导体缺芯的背景下，比亚迪半导体在基本面及估值方面有望超出此前市场预期。 股价回调提供了良好的买入机会。我们认为此前股价回调主要来自于1）全球复苏背景下，市场逐步形成再通胀预期以及美联储货币政策正常化的担忧；2）1Q20业绩略低于市场预期。新能源汽车销量方面，1）刀片电池产能释放；及2）DM-i 系列（秦PLUS DM-i、唐DM-i、宋Plus DM-i）等新车型逐步放量，均有助带动新能源销量高速增长。展望未来，我们预计比亚迪汽车销售月度环比改善，同时贷通盈利季度环比改善。我们维持公司买入评级，目标价人民币275.6元。

我们对2021至2022财年公司的增长前景持乐观态度，因为大尺寸硅片正在以高于预期的速度迅速扩张获取市场份额，越来越多的新参与者进入光伏硅片制造行业，刺激对晶体生长炉的强劲需求。此外，我们认为半导体设备方面的进展或可提升公司估值。我们将2020-22年盈利预测上调7%-12%，并将目标价上调至50.20元人民币，对应50倍2021年预测市盈率及2020-22年38%每股盈利年复合增长率。维持买入评级。 大尺寸硅片的快速普及带来更强劲的设备需求。光伏产业下游对大尺寸硅片（M10/G12）的强劲需求及其溢价加速了硅片生产商的产能扩张。据我们估算，主要光伏硅片制造商规划的2021年新增产能达到145GW，较我们之前预估高20%，且绝大部分将用以生产G12硅片。此外，我们估计现存1/3以上的晶体生长炉无法透过升级来生产大尺寸硅片，意味着未来几年市场将迎来一轮设备更换。 在中环和新玩家产能扩张推动下，晶盛有望巩固和提升市场份额。公司核心客户中环股份（002129CH，未评级）于2月宣布将扩充50GWG12硅片新产能，并预计将于2022年底达产，这将支持晶盛2022到23年的收入增长。此外，我们相信，凭借公司在晶体生长炉上强劲的技术实力，公司有望通过赢得硅片制造行业新玩家的订单来扩大其市场份额，包括上机数控（603185CH，未评级）、通威（600438CH，未评级）和高景集团等。 半导体设备进展或有助提升公司估值。晶盛于2月8日宣布向其全资子公司求是半导体增资5,000万元人民币，以增强其半导体设备生产的竞争力。公司目前已具备提供大多数8英寸晶圆生产设备、12英寸晶圆晶体生长设备以及SiC晶体生长和外延设备的能力，使其能够受益于中国半导体产业的国产化趋势。截至2020年第三季度末，公司半导体设备订单额为4.1亿元人民币，占未完成订单总额的7%。 由于A股上市的半导体设备商的估值（>100倍2021年预测市盈率）远高于太阳能设备商的估值（<50倍2021年预测市盈率），我们认为公司半导体设备业务的进步将有望提升其估值。 目标价至提升至50.20元人民币；维持买入评级。公司于今年1月发布盈喜，预计2020财年净利润同比增长25%-50%至7.97-9.56亿元人民币；区间中枢（8.77亿元人民币）对应2020年四季度单季净利润3.53亿元人民币，同比大幅增长113%。 我们认为公司超预期的业绩表现或来自毛利率回升及确认收入的增长。我们将2020-22年公司的盈利预测上调7%-12%，以反映订单量的增加和毛利率的逐步改善。我们给予公司的最新目标价为50.20元人民币，基于1.3倍PEG（此前为1.2倍）和2020-22年38%的每股收益年复合增长率，对应50倍2021年预测市盈率。 维持买入评级。 风险因素：1）下游产能扩张乏力或慢于预期；2）毛利率趋势逊于预期；3）客户付款能力下降。