Tender offer for Kuka exceeded minimum acceptance rate According to Midea's latest announcement on the progress of its tender offer toacquire Germany's Kuka, it had received agreement from the latter's shareholders tosell a combined 43.74% stake as of 6 July (local time in Frankfurt, Germany). Combined with its existing holding of 13.51% in Kuka, Midea will hold 57.25%, abovethe offer's minimum acceptance rate of 30%. Last week, Midea signed a strategicinvestment agreement with Kuka's management in which it pledged to maintain theindependence of Kuka's board, preserve its existing factories and jobs, and respect itscore technology and knowledge patents. Subsequently, the offer's progress acceleratedsignificantly, giving Midea sufficient shares this week and demonstrating the company'sstrong execution ability. Acquisition still needs to pass antitrust scrutiny in various countries The 43.74% stake to be acquired through the offer includes the 25.1% stake held bymajor shareholder Voith. If successful, the acquisition would make Midea the largestshareholder of Kuka, which it can consolidate into its financial statements. After theoffer meets the requirement for number of shares, it still needs to pass antitrustscrutiny in Germany and the US before the shares can be transferred to Midea. Webelieve the acquisition may only be fully completed by early 2017. Robotics business to become new growth driver and help improve valuation We believe the acquisition of Kuka has significance to Midea in the following areas:1) it more quickly advances Midea's "smart manufacturing + smart home" strategy toimprove productivity; 2) takes advantage of Midea's familiarity with China's market todevelop Kuka's robotics business into a new growth driver for the company; 3) astechnology advances, there may be large demand for service robots in the future, andthe acquisition of Kuka gives Midea an early presence in this business. With thegovernment driving upgrades in the manufacturing sector, Midea's acquisition of Kukacould also help improve its valuation. Valuation: Maintain EPS estimates, PT and Buy rating We maintain our 2016/17/18E EPS of Rmb2.30/2.70/3.17 and DCF-based price targetof Rmb30 (WACC 7.1%). We also leave our Buy rating unchanged.

Acquisition of Toshiba's home appliance arm completed; consolidation in H2. On 30 June, Midea announced it had completed the acquisition of an 80.1% stake inToshiba's home appliance arm and paid the total consideration of JPY51.4bn(cUS$500m/Rmb3.3bn) to Toshiba after receiving approvals from the bourse andJapanese antitrust agency. The consolidation of Toshiba's home appliance arm willbegin in July, with six months left in the year. To boost Midea's popularity in Japan and Southeast Asia; swing to profit likely. Toshiba's home appliance business mainly includes washing machines, refrigerators, airconditioners, cleaners and kitchen appliances, and we estimate its 2015 sales atcRmb14bn, equivalent to c10% of Midea's revenue, and a loss of cRmb700m. Weexpect the consolidation of the loss-making business in H216 to lower Midea's full-yearnet profit by 2-3%. We believe the acquisition price is low, with c0.5x P/S for the homeappliance business, lower than those of domestic and foreign peers. The market shareof Toshiba home appliances is high in Japan (No. 3) and Southeast Asia (No. 5), whichcan offset the Midea brand's weakness in those places. Midea and Toshiba have a longhistory of cooperation, while Japan and Southeast Asia are close to China. We believemanagement integration will go smoothly and expect the business to becomeprofitable in about three years' time. Faster tender offer progress after signing of strategic investment agreement. Meanwhile, Midea gave an update on the progress of the tender offer for Germany'sKuka stake. Midea is tendering for another 16.5% of Kuka, but only 4.21% haveaccepted two weeks after the publication of the offer document. To increase thechance of tender offer success, Midea signed a strategic investment agreement withKuka management, under which it will fully respect Kuka's brand and intellectualproperty, preventing leakage of its technology, giving its management full autonomyand making no layoffs. The term of the agreement is 7.5 years. In the meantime, Kukamanagement has recommended shareholders accept the tender offer. We expect thesigning of the agreement to accelerate the tender offer progress. Valuation: Maintain EPS estimates and price target; Buy rating. We maintain our 2016/17/18E EPS of Rmb2.30/2.70/3.17 and DCF-based price targetof Rmb30 (WACC 7.1%). We also leave our Buy rating unchanged.

Hisense to continue playing an important role in smart TV era on high loyalty. Hisense had a market share of 16.2% in 4M16 based on domestic sales (according toChinaIOL) and a smart TV market share of 15% in 2015 (AVC), remaining relativelyhigh. A divergence in the performance of traditional TV brands came after theweighting of smart TVs went up. The top three players, Hisense, Skyworth and TCL,maintained high market shares, LeTV gained market share and others fell behind. AUBS Evidence Lab survey found a high willingness to buy Hisense among consumers,with a high level of loyalty (45%). We believe Hisense will remain one of the majorsmart TV brands on its good technology and consumer experience. Hisense's gross margin expanded after adapting to a new environment. Internet brands began to make significant inroads into the smart TV sector in mid-2013. Most of them adopted a low-pricing strategy, having a big impact on the TVpricing system, with panel prices falling. However, traditional TV brands have adaptedto the new competitive environment after 2-3 years and their profitability has begun tostabilize. Hisense's gross margin expanded 2.7/1.9ppt YoY in Q415/Q116 and netmargin on sales rebounded to 7.5% in Q116, the highest level in three years. Smart TVs to bring in value as consumers spend more time watching TV. UBS Evidence Lab data suggests consumers spend an average of 123 minutes each daywatching TV and most (70%) spend more time doing so, changing the trend of stayingaway from TVs seen in previous years. This could bring opportunities for smart TVoperations, such as start-up ads, video ads, on-demand revenue sharing, games andeducation. As of end-2015, Hisense had 18m smart TV users, ranking No. 1 in China,and 8.4m monthly active users. We estimate Hisense's revenue from smart TVoperations will double this year to at least Rmb100m, further enhancing overallprofitability. Valuation: Raising earnings estimates and PT; maintain Buy. We are raising our 2016/17/18E EPS to Rmb1.30/1.48/1.68 from Rmb1.25/1.40/1.55and our DCF-based PT to Rmb23.5 (WACC 8.4%) from Rmb22.5. We maintain our Buyrating.

GE Appliances deal to be earnings-accretive; smart appliances to boost GPM. Haier's US$5.58bn payment to GE this month marks the formal completion of itsacquisition of GE Appliances. The acquired company will be consolidated in July. Despite the high price tag, we believe the acquisition has major implications for Haier'sefforts to build itself into a global brand. GE Appliances itself has strong profitability,and we expect this deal (a leveraged buyout) to positively impact earnings after Haier'scost of capital and borrowing costs are considered. GE Appliances has a strong positionin the US market, and the acquisition will likely create synergies in terms ofprocurement costs and sales channels. We estimate a net profit contribution from theacquisition of Rmb424m/1,095m/1,396m in the next 3 years. Smart appliances likely to improve Haier's market share... Haier is a leader in smart appliances both in China and internationally, having launchedstandalone smart products and created the U+ Smart Appliance Platform. Our EvidenceLab survey results suggest nearly half (47%) of consumers are quite interested in smartappliances. In the refrigerator market, smart storage has become a very importantfeature for consumers (~10% of respondents, ranking it third among various features). As smart appliances are a major trend, we believe Haier is likely to enjoy market shareincreases given its leadership in this space. …and could also push gross margin higher. Fiercer competition in home appliances notwithstanding, we believe Haier's profitabilitywill keep rising, as: 1) its product positioning is aligned with China's consumptionupgrade trend; 2) procurement/sales synergies from the GE Appliances acquisitionshould lower costs; and 3) smart appliances could boost ASP. Our Evidence Lab surveyshows consumers are willing to pay a premium for smart products, including an extraRmb1,651/1,505/1,685 for smart refrigerators/washing machines/air conditioners. Webelieve Haier's ASP and gross margin will increase as smart appliance penetration rises. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating, Rmb12.8 price target. We are lowering our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.79/0.86/0.97 from Rmb0.85/0.94/1.03,reflecting a later end to A/C sector destocking and lower-than-expected earnings forHaier's overseas business. On the back of our earnings changes, our DCF-derived pricetarget is lowered to Rmb12.8 from Rmb14.20 and assumes a 6.4% WACC. Wemaintain our Buy rating.

Management expects domestic A/C destocking to terminate at end-2016 Midea attended UBS's Asian consumer goods forum, during which its managementexpressed that it expects destocking will not terminate until end-2016, impacted bypoor retail sales in early 2016. Sales improved in June and Midea expects strongproperty sales to drive up demand for A/Cs. It also expects the decline in growth tonarrow in H216 due to a low base in H215, while A/C sales in 2016 may drop bydouble-digits. Midea also expressed that A/C price war has already ended and theprevious price cuts didn't spur much demand. The management is confident about A/Cdemand in the long run and expects middle single-digit growth in the future. Other businesses grow rapidly, driving up revenue growth in 2016 The management expressed that except domestic sales of A/Cs, A/C exports and otherbusinesses sustained rapid growth in YTD 2016, which is likely to underpin flat orpositive YoY revenue growth in 2016. The management expects exports to realizedouble-digit growth, mainly driven by exports to Europe, the US and Middle East,especially rapid growth in exports to Europe. The management also expects washingmachines to achieve 20%+ revenue growth in 2016 due to improved competitivenesson the launch of new products. Refrigerators and small home appliances are also likelyto realize high single-digit growth, driven by consumption upgrade. Takeover bid for KUKA may not be subject to be government intervention According to the management, application for the takeover bid of KUKA is alreadysubmitted to the German government, and Midea expect the approval time will not belong nor does it expect any intervention by the German government. If approved,Midea will release a formal offer and collect shareholders' willingness to sell their stocksin about 1.5 months. Whether Midea can complete the takeover and consolidate KUKAinto its financial statement depends on its final shareholding ratio and influence onKUKA. Midea expects its acquisition of Toshiba Home Appliance to be completed soon.The acquisition is aimed at exploring Japanese and Southeast Asian markets. Valuation: maintain EPS estimates and price target; Buy rating。 We maintain our 2016/17/18E EPS estimates of Rmb2.30/2.70/3.17, and derive ourprice target of Rmb30 based on the DCF methodology (WACC 7.1%). Maintain Buyrating.

Store openings in less mature regions likely to rise; profit to increase. As a leading company in fresh produce, Yonghui has quickly expanded across thecountry on strong supply chain advantages (direct fresh produce purchases) anddifferentiation and has attracted a lot of customer traffic. We estimate store openingsin less mature regions (outside Fujian and West China; eg, East China and Henan) willrise, with rapid revenue and gross margin growth. We expect same-store sales toresume growth in 2016, helped by higher inflation as of Q116 and completion of thecompany's internal management adjustment. We forecast net profit to grow in 2016because the company has: 1) expanded the scale of joint purchases and integrated thesupply chain; 2) improved stores based on data and created a store experience; and 3)implemented IT-enabled transformation and optimized internal management. O2O helping create new profit growth drivers for Yonghui. We think strategic partner JD.com's investment in Yonghui is positive for their O2Ocooperation on the following fronts: users, information, warehouse logistics, supplychain, e-commerce platform and joint purchases. This is helping create new profitgrowth drivers for the company. The company can quickly build an online presence,seize the e-commerce fresh produce market, increase foot traffic to stores and achieverapid profit growth due to its strong fresh produce purchasing capacity and offlinecustomer traffic; JD's vast online customer base; and supply chain integration. Shangshu Yonghui slow with wet market-to-supermarket switch. Shangshu Yonghui's wet market to supermarket switch could raise traffic on freshsupply chain advantages amid consumption upgrades and changing consumptionhabits in China. However, progress has been slow due to the difficulty of acquiringproperties. We are more cautious about store expansion and profitability, because: 1)Shangshu Yonghui is mainly managed by state-owned assets, with weakermanagement capability than Yonghui; and 2) back-end departments are expanding tooquickly, resulting in higher selling/administrative expense ratios. Shangshu Yonghui hasposted losses in the past two years and we think it is unlikely to be profitable in thenext three years. Valuation: Cutting earnings estimates and PT; maintain Buy. We cut our 2016-18E EPS to Rmb0.26/0.30/0.34 from Rmb0.28/0.32/0.36 and ourDCF-based PT to Rmb10.6 (WACC 7.7%) from Rmb11.7. We maintain our Buy rating.

业绩低于我们预期,分红收益率达7.8%公司2015 年实现总营收1006 亿元,同比下降28.2%,实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润125 亿元,同比下降11.5%,基本每股收益2.08 元,低于我们预期。年度利润分配方案为每10 股派现15 元(含税),股息支付率72%,按目前股价分红收益率高达7.8%。 渠道去库存正在进行中,但营收降幅有望缩窄格力去年4 季度营收同比下降57.8%,超出我们此前预期(约下降30%),是公司业绩低于我们预测的主因。2015 年4 季度公司营收的下滑幅度超出2季度和3 季度,显示公司给渠道降低库存的决心和力度均加大。根据产业在线的数据,去年4 季度公司销量同比下降27%,今年1 季度同比下降23%,我们估计1 季度公司营收同比仍将显著下滑。如果今年夏天天气炎热,同时房地产对空调需求的拉动显现,渠道库存最快有望于今年年底恢复正常。不过由于基数降低,未来几个季度营收同比降幅有望逐步缩窄。 净利率继续提升,毛利率有望企稳受去年价格战的影响,2015 年公司整体毛利率同比下降2.8 个百分点至34.3%。不过在公司降低出厂价后,减少了对经销商销售费用支持和返利,2015 年销售费用率同比下降5.2 个百分点至15.4%,带来整体净利率上升2.4 个百分点至12.6%。近期空调价格战基本停止,虽然原材料价格有所上升,但我们估计公司毛利率有望企稳。其他流动负债余额稳定在550 亿元左右,我们预计将支撑公司未来盈利增长。 估值:目标价30 元,维持“买入”评级我们维持基于现金流贴现模型(WACC 为7.4%)推导的目标价30.0 元和“买入”评级。

业绩低于我们预期,分红收益率达7.8%。 公司2015年实现总营收1006亿元,同比下降28.2%,实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润125亿元,同比下降11.5%,基本每股收益2.08元,低于我们预期。年度利润分配方案为每10股派现15元(含税),股息支付率72%,按目前股价分红收益率高达7.8%。 渠道去库存正在进行中,但营收降幅有望缩窄。 格力去年4季度营收同比下降57.8%,超出我们此前预期(约下降30%),是公司业绩低于我们预测的主因。2015年4季度公司营收的下滑幅度超出2季度和3季度,显示公司给渠道降低库存的决心和力度均加大。根据产业在线的数据,去年4季度公司销量同比下降27%,今年1季度同比下降23%,我们估计1季度公司营收同比仍将显著下滑。如果今年夏天天气炎热,同时房地产对空调需求的拉动显现,渠道库存最快有望于今年年底恢复正常。不过由于基数降低,未来几个季度营收同比降幅有望逐步缩窄。 净利率继续提升,毛利率有望企稳。 受去年价格战的影响,2015年公司整体毛利率同比下降2.8个百分点至34.3%。不过在公司降低出厂价后,减少了对经销商销售费用支持和返利,2015年销售费用率同比下降5.2个百分点至15.4%,带来整体净利率上升2.4个百分点至12.6%。近期空调价格战基本停止,虽然原材料价格有所上升,但我们估计公司毛利率有望企稳。其他流动负债余额稳定在550亿元左右,我们预计将支撑公司未来盈利增长。 估值:目标价30元,维持“买入”评级。 我们维持基于现金流贴现模型(WACC为7.4%)推导的目标价30.0元和“买入”评级。

营收出现下滑,净利润增长好转。 公司2015年实现营收897亿元,同比下降7.4%,实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润43亿元,同比下降19.4%,扣非后净利润同比下降15.0%,每股收益0.71元。年度利润分配方案是每10股派现2.12元(含税)。2016年1季度实现营收222亿元,同比下降8.4%,归属于上市公司股东的净利润16亿元,同比增长48.1%,扣非后同比增长3.1%,每股收益0.26元。 营收基本符合预期,短期仍有压力。 2015年公司完成了对海外白电资产的收购,并且实现全年并表,并表后整体营收和我们的预测基本一致。按可比口径,2015年和2016年1季度公司营收出现高个位数的下降,主要受家电需求不佳、空调行业去库存和冰洗竞争加剧影响,但公司产品结构继续改善,高端产品如卡萨帝和智能家电等增长较快。由于家电需求目前仍未现好转,我们估计公司短期营收仍有压力,不过下半年有望受益于房地产旺销滞后拉动,及空调竞争趋缓。 未来毛利率有望继续提升。 2015年公司业绩低于我们预期,主因是家电行业竞争激烈,同时公司海外资产下半年盈利能力变差。2016年1季度净利润超预期,主要受青岛银行股权投资核算方法变更影响;扣非后基本符合预期,主要受益于产品结构调整效果显现,毛利率同比上升1.1个百分点。展望未来3个季度,我们认为虽然近期原材料价格有所回升,但由于更新需求增加,公司产品结构将不断改善,盈利增长有望继续好于营收增长。 估值:维持盈利预测和目标价,维持“买入”评级。 我们维持公司盈利预测,基于现金流贴现模型(WACC假设8.4%),维持目标价14.20元,维持“买入”评级。

前三季度实现净利润同比增长1%,基本符合我们预期 公司前三季度实现营收221.3亿元,同比增长4.9%,其中Q3实现营收81.3亿元,同比增长3.75%。前三季度实现归属于上市公司股东净利润9.3亿元,同比上升1.0%,其中Q3归属于上市公司股东净利润净利润3.0亿,同比下降1.0%。前三季度EPS 0.71元,基本符合我们的预期。 内销增速下滑但仍高于行业,出口增速较快 产业在线数据显示,今年1-8月LCD行业整体销量同比下降1.9%,其中7、8两月销量同比下降2.5%。海信今年1-8月实现销量同比增长8.1%,7、8两月销量同比增长6.0%,快于行业增长,显示公司的产品和技术在行业内较具竞争力。海信今年1-8月内销销量同比增长5.2%,出口同比增长12.4%;7、8两月内销销量同比下降5.2%,出口同比增长23.5%。我们估计三季度内销下滑但仍好于行业,同时出口增长较快,占比上升。 毛利率略有下滑,销售费用率小幅上升 公司三季度毛利率17.0%,同比下降0.3个百分点,我们认为主要受低毛利率的出口占比上升的影响,同时增值业务收入占比还比较小。前三季度销售费用率上升0.4个百分点至9.8%,导致三季度利率下滑0.6个百分点至3.7%,销售费用率上升或来自新介入者的竞争。 估值:维持盈利预测和“买入”评级 我们维持公司2015/2016/2017年EPS预测1.08/1.25/1.40元,基于瑞银VCAM贴现现金流工具(WACC假设8.6%)得到目标价22.50元,维持“买入”评级。

业绩低于预期,主要由于人民币汇率损失。 公司前三季度实现营业收入741亿元,同比增长7.08%;实现归母净利润20.6亿元,同比下降6.97%,其中扣非后净利润同比增长5.87%;EPS0.178元,低于之前市场和我们的预期。前三季度集团净利润同比下滑主要由于:(1)人民币兑美元汇率损失;(2)面板价格走低,影响华星光电盈收。 面板价格下降,华星光电收入下滑。 液晶面板是净利润的主要来源,华星光电前三季度销售127亿元,同比下降1.75%,盈利17.91亿元,同比增长5.7%。面板价格自今年年初以来持续下跌,带来收入下滑,但产能稼动率和产品综合良率的提升保障了华星光电的盈利增长。公司管理层表示,T2目前5.2万片产能,预计10月将满产,同时良率达到92%;3季度T2计提了部分折旧,预计4季度将全部计提。我们估计满产后4季度将拉升收入增长,但利润率提高仍然依赖于面板价格好转。 多媒体业务出现亏损,通讯业务盈利能力稳健。 前三季度TCL多媒体销售194.9亿元,同比增加4.17%,但由于汇兑损失1.7亿元,前三季度净亏损2.38亿元,同比下降4.22亿元,全年有望持平。智能电视激活用户数1059万,活跃用户数397万,均环比继续上升。前三季度TCL通讯营收同比增长2.02%,通过严格的成本控制和存货管理,通讯业务盈利能力稳健,前三季度净利润同比增长7.16%。 估值:下调盈利预测和目标价,维持“买入”评级。 我们下调公司2015/2016/2017年EPS预测至0.28/0.34/0.43元(原预测0.30/0.37/0.45元),基于瑞银VCAM现金流折现模型(WACC为8.5%),得出目标价5.8元(原为6.2元),目标价下调源自盈利预测下调和WACC上升(原为8.1%),维持“买入”评级。

15Q3收入增速有所放缓 公司发布15Q3业绩报告,前三季度实现营业收入31.2亿元,同比增长25.2%,其中Q3实现营业收入10.8亿元,同比上升20.79%,增速有所下滑。前三季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润4.9亿元,同比增长41.1%,其中Q3公司归母净利润1.8亿元,同比上升41.4%,基本维持稳定。前三季度基本每股收益1.01元,同比增长40.28%。公司预计2015全年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润区间6.9-8.0亿元。 但毛利率和净利率继续提升 前三季度公司综合毛利率58.29%,同比上升2.37个百分点,其中3季度公司综合毛利率60.0%,同比上升4.22个百分点。毛利率显著上升主要源自原材料价格下跌、线上销售进一步占比上升和产品结构改善。毛利率上升拉动前三季度公司归母净利率上升1.76个百分点至15.6%,其中3季度净利率达16.8%,同比上升2.45个百分点。 下调收入增速预测,上调公司毛利率 鉴于宏观经济和消费环境不佳,及房地产对厨电行业的滞后负面影响,我们下调了公司2015年吸油烟机、燃气灶、消毒柜的销量增速预测至22%/22%/20% 。由于原材料价格下滑态势延续,而公司产品结构和渠道结构继续改善,我们上调了公司2015年吸油烟机、燃气灶、消毒柜的毛利率至59%/59%/47.5% (原58.5%/58.5%/47%)。 估值:下调盈利预测与目标价,维持“买入”评级 我们下调公司2015/2016/2017年EPS 至1.59/2.09/2.72元(原1.68/2.24/3.02元)。基于瑞银VCAM现金流贴现模型(WACC假设为8.3%),下调目标价至52.5元(原为53.8元)。公司当前股价对应18x 2016E PE,显著低于厨卫家电同行(26x),维持 “买入”评级。

下半年增长仍有压力,未来家电需求主要看更新 受家电行业不景气影响,公司表示下半年增长压力仍然较大。一二线市场增长略好于三四线市场,和房地产的销售表现一致。公司认为未来三四线市场重新启动的机会在于更新需求增加,特别是2010年左右家电下乡销售产品未来将进入更换期。公司认为,整体看中国家电需求约50%来自更新。 洗衣机表现较好,空调下滑较多 分品类看,公司洗衣机业务表现较好维持增长,源自自动投放等新品的推出,冰箱小幅下滑主要受行业影响,公司的冰洗业务表现均好于行业。冰洗行业消费升级趋势明显,产品均价有提升,带来毛利率上升。空调下滑较大,主要受需求不旺和行业去库存影响;由于采取即需即供的模式,公司库存水平一直很健康,渠道和公司库存各100万台左右;我们预计如果行业继续去库存导致价格战延续,海尔空调销售仍然有压力。线上销售目前占比10%,主要在京东和天猫等实现,售后的安装配送均由海尔自己完成。 智能家电和自动化改造驱动毛利率上升 智能家电目前需求还没有快速上升,公司认为主因是消费者体验还不够好。但已经开始提升产品均价,因为智能化后增加了产品功能,目前是高端产品的一个卖点,未来可能成为主流配置。公司估计未来几年资本开支在20亿元左右,主要用于生产线的自动化改造,改造完成后估计工人减少60%,产能增加100%,目前已经建成4个自动化工厂。自动化改造将有助于提高毛利率水平,我们预计将是驱动公司未来几年盈利能力上升的另一个重要方面。 估值:维持“买入”评级 我们基于瑞银VCAM现金流贴现模型(WACC假设7.6%),得出目标价18.5元,目前公司估值(15年10x)较低,维持“买入”评级。

多媒体业务致力于提升效率,手机市占率上升 公司预计电视销量增长将较平稳,未来将加强电视业务效率的提升和增值业务的拓展。TCL多媒体业务盈利能力弱于行业领先企业,新管理层上任后在各个方面和领先同行对标,以改善管理。TCL手机市占率有所上升,2季度智能手机销量排名全球第8,驱动TCL通讯业务收入继续保持增长,但公司预计未来几年的增长可能受到智能手机行业增速放缓影响。 华星光电2期将满产,折旧影响变小 华星光电T2正在进行产能爬坡,公司预计4季度将实现第一阶段6万片满产。由于其投入较T1少,公司预计折旧金额将是T1 的一半左右。同时财政补贴将类比T1,公司预计T2盈利仍有保障。短期华星光电盈利的不确定性来自面板价格的下跌,不过随着未来电视尺寸继续变大,公司预计将很快消化今年华星T2和京东方合肥新工厂的产能,支撑明年面板价格稳定。同时效率上升将降低生产成本(每个季度下降约0.5%-1%),抵消价格下降。 双“+”战略继续推进,已经实现增值业务收入 公司已经在TCL品牌电视的增值业务上实现收入,TCL预计全年收入将达到5000万元。增值业务主要来自广告的收入分成,同时有部分出售大数据收入,开机广告目前较少,公司预计未来几年将有望实现翻番增长。跨平台的全球播和欢网发展顺利,公司预计全年将实现收入1亿元。其中全球播激活用户数已接近300万,盈利模式大部分是版权视频点播和广告,同步院线目前已上映了一部,公司未来将继续和中影等合作上映更多同步影片。 估值:维持盈利预测和目标价,维持“买入”评级 我们维持公司2015/2016/2017年0.30/0.37/0.45元的EPS预测,基于瑞银VCAM现金流折现模型(WACC为8.1%),得出目标价6.8元。公司当前股价对应13x 2015E PE,维持“买入”评级。

下半年增长压力变大,空调将开始去库存。 公司认为下半年家电行业面临较大压力,但将争取实现全年收入增长。由于原材料价格仍然较低,公司争取全年净利润增长在两位数以上。特别是空调增长压力较大,此前终端售价下降有助提升公司市占率,但行业性降价并未刺激消费,导致渠道库存偏高。下半年公司将积极去库存,希望渠道库存水平在明年年初回归到正常,由此我们估计下半年公司空调销量将出现下滑。 冰洗市占率或将持续上升,厨房大家电增长较快。 美的冰洗业务上半年增长较快,但公司预计下半年增速将下降,不过仍有望维持两位数增长,主要源自公司产品力的提升,同时公司洗衣机特别是冰箱市占率仍然离龙头公司有差距,未来上升空间较大。公司厨卫家电整体保持平稳增长,其中油烟机和燃气灶等厨房大家电上半年销量增长接近30%,未来将继续扩张;厨卫小家电如微波炉电饭煲等销量平稳,增长较慢。 智能家电和机器人等新品将继续推进。 公司在智能家电上继续布局,一方面招聘200多名电子和软件等IT人才研发智能家电单品,另一方面对外合作拓展智能家电平台:服务器领域和华为合作,云存储和云计算领域和阿里巴巴合作。和安川合资的机器人公司8月已经成立,安川有技术优势,美的对中国市场理解较深,双方将在工业机器人和服务机器人两个方面开发合作,争取今年年底前研发出一款六轴工业机器人,服务机器人将首先开发老年人看护机器人,公司力图使其成为新的增长点。 估值:估值处于较低水平,维持“买入”评级。 我们维持公司2015-17年3.04/3.60/4.25元的EPS预测,基于瑞银VCAM现金流贴现模型(WACC假设为11.3%),得出目标价46元。美的目前股价相对约9x的2015E PE,处于较低水平;维持“买入”评级。