金融事业部 搜狐证券 |独家推出
崔晓雁

华金证券

研究方向: 证券行业

联系方式:

工作经历: 证书编号:S0910519020001,曾供职于国泰君安证券、瑞银证券...>>

20日
短线
20.0%
(--)
60日
中线
0.0%
(--)
买入研报查询: 按股票 按研究员 按机构 高级查询 意见反馈
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/11 转到  

最新买入评级

研究员 推荐股票 所属行业 起评日* 起评价* 目标价 目标空间
(相对现价)
20日短线评测 60日中线评测 推荐
理由
发布机构
最高价* 最高涨幅 结果 最高价* 最高涨幅 结果
平安银行 银行和金融服务 2019-08-09 13.90 -- -- 15.22 9.50% -- 15.22 9.50% -- 详细
事件:公司H119营收678亿元、同比+18.5%,归母净利润154亿元、同比+15.2%。其中Q2营收354亿元,同比+21%、环比+8.9%,归母净利润79.6亿元,同比+17.4%、环比+6.9%。我们预期市场将对本次业绩做出正面反应。 零售金融营收占比56.9%,净利润占比70.2%,彰显出更强的盈利能力。零售贷款日均余额占比59.9%,我们预期下一阶段将更注重业务质量,挖掘中高端用户价值。AUM较上年末+23.9%、同比+44.2%,私行和财富管理打开发展空间,零售突破推动战略升级。 H119不良率较上年末-7bp至1.68%:H119零售贷款不良率1.09%(信用卡不良率1.37%),对公贷款不良率2.51%。不良贷款偏离度94%,正常类、关注类贷款迁徙率分别为1.63%、24.15%。资产质量改善、历史不良包袱减轻,我们预计下半年零售贷款不良率稳中向好,支撑整体不良率维持合理水平。 H119净息差(年化)同比+36bp至2.62%:H119生息资产收益率为5.23%,其中零售贷款收益率7.74%,计息负债成本率2.69%。零售贷款的高占比(59.9%)以及低息负债回升给予公司净息差较强的韧性。 投资建议:维持盈利预测、维持“买入-B”评级。公司零售转型由“跑量”步入“提质”,维持高息差预期下,我们将持续关注资产质量改善进程。另外,260亿可转债转股期已到,资本短板有望弥补。 风险提示:经济下行或导致信贷收紧、资产质量恶化;平安信托整合不及预期;可转债转股率不及预期。
东方财富 计算机行业 2019-07-31 14.15 -- -- 15.41 8.90% -- 15.41 8.90% -- 详细
事件:东财H119营业总收入19.98亿元、同比+22.2%,扣非后归母净利润8.37亿元、同比+52.0%。其中Q219营业总收入10.71亿元,同比+31.9%、环比+15.6%;归母净利润4.85亿元,同比+88.3%、环比+25.7%。 业绩大增原因主要受益于股市回暖下,证券业务(尤其手续费及佣金)快速提升。H119证券业务收入13.19亿元,同比+43.0%;但基金代销价格战延续,金融电子商务收入同比-3.2%。 证券业务显著回暖:H119东财证券营收12.43亿元、同比+44.5%,净利润6.63亿元,同比+146.2%。业绩大增主要受益于H119日均股基成交额同比+31%下,东财证券手续费及佣金净收入同比+57.1%至8.82亿元。此外,H119东财证券利息净收入同比+17.9%至2.51亿元。 基金代销价格战延续,资管或成下一利润增长点。本期金融电商服务(主要为基金代销)营收5.65亿元、同比-3.2%。其中基金代销额同比+2.1%(非活期宝同比+42.9%),但平均代销费率由H118的0.36%降至H119的0.26%。2019年7月东财基金获批,至此公司完成了从财经资讯到基金代销、券商业务再向大资管业务的延式,我们期待资管业务成为新的利润增长点。 投资建议:增持-B评级。我们预测2019-20年EPS分别为0.23/0.31/0.36元,同比分别21%/38%/18%。ROE分别8.28%/9.59%/10.37%。公司战略清晰,持续增长可期,是我们中长期最看好的公司之一。然而证券业务利润贡献占比已达76%,ROE短期内难显著回升(vs2015年曾高达66%),我们认为目前63.8x和4.6x2019EP/E和P/B的估值水平难以支撑,未来或逐步向上市券商靠近。 风险提示:市场景气下行、证券业务盈利不及预期、公募基金业务不及预期、监管政策趋严、信用业务坏账风险超预期。
平安银行 银行和金融服务 2019-06-11 11.88 -- -- 14.28 20.20%
15.22 28.11% -- 详细
LUM 驱动零售转型:平安银行零售转型以加大零售信贷投放为切入口,Q119零售贷款日均余额占总贷款 59.50%(长期目标 60%)。零售转型支撑高息差,资产端: 生息资产收益率常年领跑上市股份行(Q119为 5.19%),高收益率主要靠高收益贷款(Q119为 6.61%),零售贷款收益率(Q119为 7.55%)拉动整体贷款收益率,后续信用卡等高收益资产占比提升有望支撑生息端;负债端:计息负债成本率较高 (Q119为 2.85%) ,在于低息存款中定存偏高(18年 56.68%vs 招行 39.36%),存款占比有较大提升空间(与招行相差 7.08pct),存款结构改善值得期待。 资产质量持续优化:不良率变化趋势和上市股份行基本一致(Q119为 1.73%),不良贷款偏离度下滑至 97.99%,不良生成率下行,正常贷款迁徙率 3.73%低位运行。对公不良业务持续压缩(2018年已由 2013年的 50.51%降至 27.68%)后,不良率处于可控状态、零售业务历史包袱(贷贷平安)减轻。我们将持续关注信用卡及消费类等零售业务不良率。可转债获准发行将有效减轻资本金不足制约,经测算如全部转股可提高各级资本充足率 1.09pct,或释放 23.74亿元净利息收入。 背靠平安集团优势显著:综拓渠道客源引流效用凸显。Q119迁徙净增客户占零售净增客户 34.2%(剔除信用卡),看好后续内部客户转化效率提升,34.6%同时持单客户比仍有挖掘空间。平安信托财富管理条线纳入,中性假设下长期来看信托财富管理业务迁入平安私行将带来 17.63亿利润,当然风险管控值得关注。此外转型零售技术支撑强劲,18年底拥有超 6000名科技人才,IT 资本支出增长 82%。 投资建议: 我们预测公司 2019-2021年 EPS 1.57、 1.76、 2.00元/股,BVPS 14.24、15.84、17.66元/股。我们预期平安银行零售转型成效将进一步显现,合理价值或对应 1.0-1.1xP/B,目前约 0.84x 2019E P/B,仍有上升空间,首次覆盖给予买入-B评级。 风险提示:经济下行或导致信贷收紧、资产质量恶化;平安信托整合不及预期。
中信证券 银行和金融服务 2019-03-25 24.77 -- -- 26.42 6.66%
26.42 6.66%
详细
发布2018年年报,与业绩快报基本一致。中信2018年营业收入372.2亿元、同比-14.0%;归母扣非净利润90.0亿元、同比-21.4%(vs行业-41%),加权平均ROE6.20%。每10股现金分红3.5元。投资收益(含公允价值变动)同比-36.7%是本期利润下滑的主要原因。公司机构业务较强,因此经纪、投行收入仅小幅下滑,业绩受市场波动影响较小,较同业更为稳健。 龙头地位稳固,我国最有希望成为国际一流投行的证券公司。中信继续保持绝对领先的龙头地位,净利润、净资产等财务指标稳居行业首位,股权、债券承销;资产管理AUM;互换、场外期权、结构化产品等合约规模保持市场第一;并购重组、股基交易额等居行业前列。此外,公司已启动向财富管理转型,从以业务为中心向以客户为中心转变并构建出向国际标准看齐的风险管理体系。 上调2019-21年盈利预测。基于1、2月已公布财务数据和3月估算值,我们预计公司Q1净利润同比+75%左右。基于最新市场环境,我们预期相对中性的行业假设为1)2019年日均成交6000亿(vs原假设4000亿);2)行业两融余额全年平均1.2万亿(vs原假设9000亿)。受假设上调影响,我们将公司2019-21年净利润分别上调27%/31%/34%,2019EBVPS上调2.19%。调整后净利润2019、20年同比+58%、+25%。2019-20EROE分别为8.96%和10.10%。 投资建议:维持买入评级,但目前价位介入上行空间或有限。考虑到公司长期可持续ROE在10%左右且享有龙头溢价,给予2.00x目标PB,基于PB/ROE法和调整后2019EBVPS得目标价27.63元。但需说明的是,公司股价已有一定涨幅,P/B估值相对较高,短期内继续上行空间或有限,因此将风险评级由A下调至B。 风险提示:股市回暖低于预期;行业竞争加剧致佣金率下滑、信用业务利率下滑超预期;监管加强致业务受限、监管处罚;信用业务坏账率超预期等。
国泰君安 银行和金融服务 2019-03-22 19.78 24.32 40.01% 21.36 7.99%
21.36 7.99%
详细
投资要点 发布2018年年报,与业绩快报基本一致。国君2018年营业收入227.2亿元、同比-4.6%;归母扣非净利润58.1亿元、同比-36.8%(vs行业-41%),加权平均ROE5.42%(低于中信的6.20%;高于海通的4.43%)。每10股现金分红2.75元。公司本期利润下滑主要受经纪、自营、投行收入下滑及管理费用提升和信用减值损失增加影响。 预计Q119净利润同比+60%。3月市场交易活跃且交易日多于2月,两因素叠加我们预计国君母公司净利润3月单月净利润或超20亿元,环比约+120%、同比约+75%。基于1、2月已公布财务数据和3月估算值,我们预计公司1季度净利润同比+60%左右。 上调2019-21年盈利预测。A股景气程度好于我们预期。基于最新市场环境,我们采用相对中性的行业假设1)2019年日均成交6000亿(vs原假设4000亿,年初至今5531亿);2)行业两融余额全年平均1.2万亿(vs原假设9000亿,目前余额8883亿)。受假设上调影响,我们将公司2019-21年净利润分别上调18%/14%/11%,2019EBVPS上调1.26%。上调后公司净利润2019、20年同比+61%、+19%。公司2019-20EROE分别为8.35%和9.21%。 投资建议:上调目标价至24.72元,维持“买入”评级。我们继续使用PB/ROE法进行估值。参考公司ROE能力并考虑到市场景气回升下券商股估值水平整体上移,我们将公司目标PB提升至1.6x。基于调整后2019EBVPS给予目标价24.72元,维持买入评级。 风险提示:股市回暖低于预期;行业竞争加剧致佣金率下滑、信用业务利率下滑超预期;监管加强致业务受限、监管处罚;信用业务坏账率超预期等。
中信建投 银行和金融服务 2019-02-15 12.78 14.45 -- 31.86 149.30%
31.86 149.30%
详细
首次覆盖,给予“买入-B”评级:中信建投是位于行业第二梯队的中大型证券公司,投行业务是其优势所在,同时场外衍生品业务规模自2018年8月以来增速较快。公司目前股价对应2019-20EP/B1.68x和1.59x,高于主要可比公司。但考虑到公司上市时间较短,自由流通市值仅45亿左右,交易活跃、股价波动大。我们认为可参考中小上市券商给予一定估值溢价,首次覆盖给予买入-B评级。 投行业务表现突出,场外衍生品增速较快:公司投行业务居行业领先地位,项目储备丰富,截止19年1月末在会预披露IPO项目44个,居行业首位;2018年主承销增发、企业债券规模共2819亿元,较行业第2位的中信证券(2001亿元)高40%。2019年公司有望受益于科创板和注册制落地以及监管层换帅后可能出现的IPO过会率回升、再融资政策松绑等。场外期权是近年来证券业创新亮点。2018年8月开始公司场外期权月新增名义本金额由原无缘前五或金额较小,跃升至连续位居行业首位或第2位,业务扩张十分明显。 拟增发补充资本金130亿元:公司1月下旬公告,拟非公开发行A股不超过12.77亿股,募集资金不超过130亿元。募资完成后,公司净资产将提升30%左右,大幅提升公司资本实力。我们假设本次增发于2019年末完成,募资成效在2020年显现。考虑到本次募资主要用于资本中介(55亿元)和投资交易业务(45亿元),我们认为公司2020-22年利润增速将高于同业。 投资建议:基于2019-20年A股市场股票日均成交额分别4000和4400亿元的假设,我们预测公司2018-20年EPS分别为0.40、0.48和0.52元,同比-23%、+19%和+9%。ROE分别为6.79%、6.19%和5.49%。基于PB/ROE估值法,给予目标价14.60元,对应2019E目标PB2.00x(中小上市券商历史平均水平)。 风险提示:股市回暖低于预期;竞争加剧致佣金率或信用业务利率下滑超预期;监管加强致业务受限、监管处罚;坏账率超预期;限售股解禁预期压制估值等。
华泰证券 银行和金融服务 2019-02-14 19.75 22.65 14.57% 26.13 32.30%
26.13 32.30%
详细
投资要点 首次覆盖,给予“买入-A”评级:华泰综合实力居行业前列,资本实力、风控能力等表现突出。自然人客户储备丰富,资管业务表现优异和财富管理潜力巨大;机构业务正在奋起直追。目前股价对应2019-20EP/B1.46x和1.40x,处于历史底部区域。首次覆盖给予买入-A评级。 自然人客户储备丰富,资产管理和财富管理潜力巨大:受益于2013-15年的激进扩张,华泰经纪份额居行业首位,且以自然人客户为主。庞大的自然人客户储备不但为公司带来稳定的经纪佣金收入,也为资产管理、财富管理和国际业务提供了发展基础。公司资管表现优异,2016年以来持续逆势增长;Q218月均AUM9,228亿元,居行业第二位,2014年以来CAGR33%。公司财富管理移动端平台“涨乐财富通”月度活跃用户数已连续三年多位居券商App榜首,成为获取零售客户和归集客户资产的核心载体,在券商金融科技方面领先地位明显。 机构业务全业务链体系已搭建:华泰致力于成为兼具本土优势和全球视野的一流综合金融集团。为顺应机构化趋势,公司搭建起以投行为龙头,以机构销售为纽带,整合投资交易、研究、PB的全业务链体系。公司H118并购交易项目数和IPO过会率领先同业;投资交易平台不断丰富交易策略并积极创设各类金融产品;托管业务聚焦重点区域,业务规模和市场地位稳步提升。 投资建议:基于2019-20年A股市场股票日均成交额分别4000和4400亿元的假设,我们预测公司2018-20年EPS分别为0.75、0.94和1.10元,同比-33%、+25%和+17%。ROE分别为9.53%、5.66%和6.77%。基于PB/ROE估值法,给予目标价23.01元,对应2019E目标PB1.70x(参考2011-13年ROE平均6.0%时公司平均估值),买入-A评级。 风险提示:股市回暖低于预期;行业竞争加剧致佣金率下滑、信用业务利率下滑超预期;监管加强致业务受限、监管处罚;信用业务坏账率超预期等。
中信证券 银行和金融服务 2019-02-13 18.88 21.30 -- 27.88 47.67%
27.88 47.67%
详细
投资要点 首次覆盖,给予“买入-A”评级:中信综合实力稳居行业首位,资产规模、盈利规模遥遥领先于同业,核心竞争力表现突出。收购广州证券有助于公司网点布局进一步完善,客户资源、业务体量再度提升,夯实领先地位。目前股价对应2019-20E P/B 1.39x和1.32x,处于历史底部区域。首次覆盖给予买入-A评级。 收购广州证券,强化华南地区客户储备和网点布局:中信善于通过外延式并购快速扩张版图。2004-2006年先后收购万通、金通、华夏证券和华夏基金,2011年收购里昂。多次并购促使公司实现跨越式发展。广州证券扎根华南多年,收购广州证券利于中信加强华南地区客户储备和网点布局。同时,交易对价低于我们预期,对应广证18年11月末净资产仅1.21xPB,低于大多数中小上市券商。但需提示的是,广证现有人员3300多人、135家营业部,整合时间成本或较高;此外,广证2018年1-11月亏损1.84亿元,我们担忧若不能快速扭亏为盈,将拉低整体ROE。 2018年业绩表现优于同业:公司发布业绩快报,2018 年营收372.23 亿元,同比-14.0%;归母净利润93.94 亿元,同比-17.8%;加权平均ROE 6.20%。净利润降幅和ROE优于-41%和3.56%的行业平均水平。我们认为公司业绩相对平稳主要受益于资本实力强、机构客户占比高、业务布局全面从而对股市依赖度较低。 投资建议:基于2019-20年A股市场股票日均成交额分别4000和4400亿元的假设,我们预测公司2018-20年EPS分别为0.78、0.91和1.10元,同比-18%、+25%和+21%。ROE分别为6.20%、5.73% 和6.52%。基于PB/ROE估值法,给予目标价21.63元,对应2019E目标PB1.60x(参考2013年ROE 6.0%时公司平均估值),买入-A评级。 风险提示:股市回暖低于预期;行业竞争加剧致佣金率下滑、信用业务利率下滑超预期;监管加强致业务受限、监管处罚;坏账率超预期;ROE低于预期等。
国泰君安 银行和金融服务 2019-02-12 17.00 13.11 -- 22.21 30.65%
22.21 30.65%
详细
首次覆盖, 给予“买入-A”评级: 相对中信、华泰等, 国泰君安特色并不明显,但公司也是居于行业前列的头部券商之一,资本实力、 销售能力、定价能力、风控能力等均表现优异,稳健经营、均衡发展、业绩良好, 估值显著低于主要可比公司。 目前股价对应 2019-20E P/B 1.14x 和 1.08x。首次覆盖给予买入-A 评级。 稳中求进,均衡发展: 公司综合实力较强, H118营业收入、净利润、总资产及净资产均排名行业第 2位,净资本位居行业首位, 连续 11年获得 AA 类评级。 各业务方面:公司机构、个人客户基础坚实,经纪、投行业务居行业前列;信用业务已主动降低规模且风险计提充分;投资资产占比不高且投资风格稳健,坚持低风险、非方向; 月均主动管理规模居行业第 2位。 我们认为公司业务布局全面,收入结构均衡,市场低迷环境下业绩下滑压力低于中小上市券商。 FICC 和权益衍生品业务或成未来亮点: 固定收益类、 衍生品业务是证券行业未来方向之一,也是公司着力发展的重要业务。 2018年先后获得跨境业务、人民币利率互换清算代理业务、信用违约互换集中清算业务及场外期权一级交易商资格,并是首批担任公募基金结算参与人。 截止 H118, 公司权益及股指类场内期权做市规模排名行业第 1位,贵金属期权占全市场业务规模的 30%以上,利率互换累计交易量在证券公司中排名第 1位。 投资建议: 基于 2019-20年 A 股市场股票日均成交额分别 4000和 4400亿元的假设,我们预测公司 2018-20年 EPS 分别为 0.77、0.98和 1.14元,同比-32%、+27%和+17%。 ROE 分别为 5.42%、 5.19% 和 6.29%。基于 PB/ROE 估值法,给予目标价 21.27元,对应 2019E 目标 PB 1.40x( 最近三年平均 PB, 低于中信、华泰) 。 风险提示: 股市回暖低于预期;行业竞争加剧致佣金率下滑、信用业务利率下滑超预期;监管加强致业务受限、监管处罚; 信用业务坏账率超预期等。
东方财富 计算机行业 2016-10-14 19.45 13.23 -- 20.37 4.73%
22.45 15.42%
详细
Brokerage share rose to 0.97%; breakthroughs likely in credit business East Money has eaten into the market shares of traditional brokers since entering thesecurities industry. Its brokerage market share rose to 0.97% as of August 2016,enabling it to move up from April 2015's 75th to the current 26th in the industry.Assuming brokerage share expands at the current pace (10.5% compound monthlygrowth rate from May 2015to the present), the company is likely to move into the top20in terms of brokerage share by year-end. With the credit business a key area forbreakthroughs, the company offered a 5.99% preferential financing rate in Q2and a6.99% rate on small stock-based loans in Q3. Since it has licenses to conduct a fullrange of securities business, we expect the company to achieve breakthroughs on morefronts, in addition to brokerage, soon. Earnings are highly cyclical and highly correlated to A-share market sentiment The company earns most of its revenue from fund distribution/securities, so its earningsare highly correlated to A-share market sentiment and highly cyclical. This year, itsearnings have missed our expectations amid increased competition in fund distributionand an A-share market downturn. We are lowering our 2016-18E EPS 26%/11%/9%due to: 1) lower H116commission rates than we expected; 2) a weak foundation forbusinesses such as investment banking; and 3) a possible further drop in funddistribution revenue amid a market downturn/fiercer competition. Validating East Money's fair valuation using sum of the parts Based on 50x 2017E PE, we are cutting our price target 7.5% to Rmb22.98, implying37x/31x/26x 2018-20E PE. Considering the big volatility in the company's earnings, wevalue eastmoney.com, fund distribution, financial data and internet brokerageseparately from a mid- to long-term investment perspective and sum the value of thosesegments. A fair valuation for the company derived from sum of the parts is largely inline with our PE-derived valuation. Valuation: Reiterate Buy rating on medium-/long-term investment value The company's share price has been weak YTD, hovering around its trough since June2015. Despite the highly cyclical nature of earnings and a high 2016E PE multiple, weview a valuation premium as reasonable, given the company's high growth potential.We are firmly optimistic about the prospects of the company's internet brokeragebusiness. At the current valuation, we think the company has medium-/long-terminvestment value. We reiterate our Buy rating. Our PT is based on 50x 2017E PE.
国金证券 银行和金融服务 2016-09-05 13.21 16.63 87.06% 13.55 2.57%
15.17 14.84%
详细
Q: How did the results compare vs. expectations? A: Sinolink reported H1 net profit of Rmb638m (-48% YoY), largely in line with ourexpectation. Excluding Rmb80.94m of government subsidies, net profit fell 51% YoY. Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results? A: Sinolink's brokerage share/commission rate was 1.50%/0.039% (+0.4ppt/-18%YoY) in H1. The effective leverage ratio fell to 1.96x vs. a sector average of 2.75x. Financial assets held for trading (Rmb6.322bn) and available for sale (Rmb4.296bn)were lower than in Q1, together accounting for 21% of total assets (sector average:c35%), with positions concentrated in less risky fixed-income products (eg, governmentbonds/financial bonds/monetary funds). However, brokerage share growth has slowedsince April and H1 investment banking revenue fell 7% YoY, missing our expectation. Q: Has the company's outlook/guidance changed? A: With retail brokerage as a basis, Sinolink further improved Yongjinbao's functions inH1 and combined online and offline to develop its online brokerage business. Weremain optimistic about the prospects of this business. Q: How would we expect investors to react? A: We expect a positive response to Sinolink's better-than-peer performance.
海通证券 银行和金融服务 2016-09-05 15.64 18.33 33.99% 16.14 3.20%
17.39 11.19%
详细
1H16 NPAT down 58%, in line with profit alert Haitong reported 1H16 NPAT of Rmb4.264bn, down 58% yoy, in line with its profitalert. This is equivalent to 52% of UBS full-year forecasts and largely within ourexpectation. The NPAT decline was similar to the industry average (-59% yoy) and itsmajor competitor CITICS’ (-58% yoy). Other comprehensive income was -Rmb1.616bnin 1H16, indicating that unrealized losses increased again from 1Q (-Rmb1.197bn). Relatively balanced business structure Haitong has a relatively balanced business structure, with brokerage/investmentbanking/proprietary trading/asset management/direct investment/financialleasing/overseas/others accounting for 51%/11%/15%/4%/9%/10%/8%/-6% of profitin 1H16. Revenue from investment banking/proprietary trading/assetmanagement/direct investment/financial leasing/overseas was Rmb883m (-4%yoy)/2.842bn (-45% yoy)/587m (-65% yoy)/526m (+100% yoy)/950m (+18%yoy)/1.722bn (-35% yoy). Brokerage market share and commission rate likely to face downward pressure Affected by lower trading volume and a falling commission rate, Haitong’s 1H16 netbrokerage revenue was Rmb2.91bn, down 57% yoy (vs industry average of -65%). Thecompany’s brokerage market share was 4.67% in H116, vs 5.18% in H115. Thecommission rate recorded on the parent’s books fell 5% yoy to 0.040% in H116. Weexpect the company’s brokerage market share and commission rate to face moredownward pressure amid intensified competition. Valuation: Maintain Rmb19.27 PT and Buy rating Our PB/ROE-based price target of Rmb19.27 implies 1.87x 2017E PB. We maintain ourBuy rating.
工商银行 银行和金融服务 2016-09-02 4.52 4.74 -- 4.55 0.66%
4.57 1.11%
详细
NPAT grew by 1% yoy in H116. ICBC’s NPAT in H116 grew by 1% yoy to Rmb150bn, tracking 58%/56% ofUBSe/consensus estimates respectively. We calculate ICBC’s Q216 earnings ofRmb75.5bn, up 1% yoy (+1% qoq). PPoP in Q216 slightly declined by 1% yoy with (1)net interest income declined by 9% yoy, (2) loan up 9% yoy (+3% qoq) with NIMcontracting by 13bp qoq, (3) fee income dropped by 4% yoy, (4) annualized credit costimproved by 7bp yoy/10bp qoq to 0.66%, (5) cost-income ratio was well contained at26.7%. Mortgage lending was one of the major growth drivers (+27% yoy) of the loangrowth. Loan to deposit ratio slightly grew by 0.5ppt qoq to 73%. NPL balance & ratio down, but provision requirement under pressure. At end-H1, NPL balance declined by 4% qoq while NPL ratio improved by 11bp qoq to1.55%. However, coverage remained low at 143% in Q216, lower than minimumrequirement. Special mention loan balance grew by 20% HoH; >90 days overdue loanincreased by 17% HoH. Reserve to loan ratio dropped by 13bp qoq to 2.21%. Thoughboth NPL ratio and balance saw improvement qoq, we still have concern aboutpotential bad debt provision requirement to lift up its coverage ratio in the short term. Capital strength remains stable. At end-H1, ICBC’s CET1 ratio was 12.54%, higher than industry average of 10.7%. T1CAR and total CAR stood at 13.11% and 14.26% respectively, indicating the bank’scapital strength remains stable. As banks’ ROE continues to fall, their PB ratio couldcome under pressure, hurting their ability to raise funds in the secondary market. Therefore, we remain positive on banks with better capital positions, such as ICBC. Valuation: Maintain price target of Rmb5.40 and Buy rating. We apply 1.02x target P/BV to our 2016 BVPS estimate of Rmb5.30 to derive our pricetarget. Our target P/BV is based on a long-term sustainable ROE of 9.4%, a cost ofequity of 9.3% and a long-term growth rate of 5%. The stock is trading at 0.85x our2016 P/B estimate, which we view as attractive. We maintain our Buy rating.
中国太保 银行和金融服务 2016-08-31 26.68 32.29 -- 29.85 11.88%
31.67 18.70%
详细
H116 net profit down 46% YoY, in line with preliminary resultsCPIC-A reported 1H16 NPAT of Rmb6.1bn (-46% YoY), inline with its profit alert. H116net profit declines were mainly affected by lower investment yield and adjustment toactuary assumptions for reserve charges. The company realised strong NBV growth atlife segment and slight improvement of combined ratio at P&C. BVPS wasRmb14.01/shr, down 5% over end-2015 on marking to market of investments anddividend payout. Net investment yield was 4.6% (vs 4.9% in 1H15) and totalinvestment yield was 4.7% (vs 6.6% in 1H15). Life: NBV up 56% YoY, supported by strong growth in individual channelNBV was up 56% YoY in H116, supported by strong growth in individual channel. Gross written premium (GWP) at Life was up 32% in H116 (+22% in Q216, +38% inQ116), with GWP from individual channel up 40% YoY while GWP from group &partnerships channel down 10% YoY. Overall first year premium (FYP) grew strongly at55% YoY, with individual FYP up 71% YoY, among which first year regular premiumwas up 72% and accounted for 97% of total individual FYP. Monthly average agentnumber was 582K, up 40% YoY. Agency productivity (average first year premiums peragent) was Rmb7,403/month (+25% YoY). P&C: combined ratio slightly improved to 99.4%; stable claims reserve ratioP&C GWP was Rmb49.2bn, up 2% YoY (-2% in Q216, 6% in Q116). GWP from autoinsurance was up 3% YoY while non-auto GWP was down 2% YoY. The premiumscontribution from telemarketing & internet sales and cross-selling channel hascontinued to rise, accounting for 23.6% of the GWP in H116 (vs 22.3% in H115). Totalcombined ratio (COR) improved slightly (down 0.1ppt YoY) to 99.4%. CPIC's motorinsurance portfolio saw COR improving 0.2ppt to 98.2% but COR for non-autobusiness remained above 100%. Claims reserve ratio remained stable at 33.9% (vs34.1% at end-15). Valuation: PT at Rmb34.65; maintain BuyOur sum-of-the-parts based PT of Rmb34.65 implies 1.56x 2016E P/EV.
建设银行 银行和金融服务 2016-08-31 5.24 5.35 -- 5.34 1.91%
5.76 9.92%
详细
NPAT up 1% yoy from better control on cost-income ratio CCB reported H116 NPAT of Rmb133.4bn, up 1% yoy, tracking 61% and 59% of our& consensus 2016E estimates. Q216 NPAT was Rmb65.5bn up 1% yoy. PPoP in Q216dropped by 1% yoy with (1) NII declined by 9% yoy mainly due to continual NIMcontraction (-17bp qoq), (2) loan growth at 10% yoy (3% qoq), (3) fee income droppedby 3% yoy, (4) annualized credit cost fell 3bp qoq to 0.98%, (5) cost income ratio was27.3% vs 26.3% in Q116 or 33.2% in 2015. According to the disclosure, its interestincome from loans decreased by 12.6% yoy in H116, mainly due to the: (1) loan repricing,and (2) business tax to value-added tax reform. Its effective tax rate came in at21.2% in H116, down from 23.3% in 2015, mainly because its interest income fromgov’t bonds was tax-exempted. Solid retail loan growth; stable asset quality CCB’s retail loans grew by 24% yoy, which are mostly contributed by residentialmortgages (i.e., 82% of total retail loans as of H116). Its NPL balance increased 3%qoq while NPL ratio was well maintained at 1.63%, lower than the industry average of1.75%. Coverage ratio was 152%, and provision-to-loan ratio increased 1bp qoq to2.48%.。 Capital position remains strong CCB’s capital strength continues to stand in a strong position amid Chinese banks; itsCET1 ratio, T1 CAR and total CAR came at 13.06%, 13.24% and 15.09%, respectively,as of H116. We believe CCB will be positioned later in the queue for capital-raising andfaces limited risks of DPS and EPS dilution. Valuation: Maintain Rmb6.10 PT and Buy rating CCB-A is currently trading at 0.85x our 2016 P/B estimate. We derive our price targetbased on the PB/ROE valuation method. Our target P/BV of 0.98x is based on a longtermsustainable ROE of 10.4%, a cost of equity of 10.5% and a long-term growth rateof 5%. We view the current valuation as still attractive and maintain our Buy rating.
首页 上页 下页 末页 1/11 转到  
*说明:

1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
3、 1短线成功数排名 1中线成功数排名 1短线成功率排名 1中线成功率排名