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未署名
上海机场 公路港口航运行业 2017-09-19 41.00 47.02 15.50% 40.80 -0.49% -- 40.80 -0.49% -- 详细
SIAC's pax growth slowed to 1.2% YoY in Aug-17, from 4.1% in Jul-17: Thisreflects weakness in domestic routes (-1.8% vs. +5.9%). However, we still seeimprovement in SIAC's traffic mix, given relatively stronger growth ininternational (4.4% vs. 2.7%) and regional routes (2.5% vs. 0.5%). In 8M17,aggregate pax throughput grew 5.4% YoY, lower than 10.0% in 8M16. Aircraft traffic was flat YoY in Aug-17, after +2.9% in Jul-17: (Average pax peraircraft: 148 in Aug-17 vs. 146 in Jul-17). Weakness was found in domestic (-5.1% vs. +0.9%) and regional routes (-3.8% vs. -3.7%), while international momentumpicked up slightly (7.5% vs. 7.3%), reflecting capacity reallocations by SIAC amidthe Civil Aviation Administration of China's penalty on slot additions. YTD,aircraft movement growth normalized to 3.2% YoY, from 7.7% in 8M16. Cargo/mail volume growth remained robust at 12.1% YoY in Aug-17, vs. 12.6% inJul-17: It was mainly driven by strong international momentum (16.7% vs. 16.6%). Domestic volume declined 6.6% YoY (vs. -0.9% in Jul-17), while regional growthstrengthened to 3.6% YoY (vs. 0.8% in Jul-17). In 8M17, volume growthaccelerated significantly to 13.3% YoY, from 2.0% in 8M16. CAAC penalty update: According to CAAC official news on August 31, 2017,approval of temporary flights, chartered flights and new route applications bySIAC will continue to cease until December 31, 2017, due to low punctuality. However, SIAC is allowed to reallocate its existing flight capacity tointernational/regional routes from domestic ones.
未署名
春秋航空 航空运输行业 2017-09-18 34.68 39.06 13.94% 35.44 2.19% -- 35.44 2.19% -- 详细
RPK growth slowed further: SPA’s revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) growthnormalized to +15.6% YoY in Aug-17, from +18.7% in Jul-17. Slowing momentumwas found mainly on domestic routes (+23.5% vs. +28.4%), while growth oninternational routes (+1.3% vs. +1.4%) and regional routes (+10.3% vs. +10.0%)remained largely stable. In the first eight months of 2017, RPK growth accelerated to +25.6% YoY, from+10.3% in the same period of 2016, due to higher capacity input. Specifically,domestic and regional RPKs showed significant rebounds of +37.1% and +9.3%,respectively, YoY (vs. -4.3% and -11.8% in the same period of 2016). Due tocapacity pullbacks, international RPK growth slowed dramatically to +6.6% YoY,from +57.7% in the same period of 2016. Lower PLFs: Given an +18.1% YoY increase in ASK, SPA’s passenger load factor(PLF) dipped 2.0ppt YoY to 92.6% in Aug-17. In particular, as domestic andregional ASK increased by +27.4% and +15.2%, respectively, YoY, PLFs dropped to93.1% (-2.9ppt YoY) and 90.6% (-4.0ppt YoY). As international ASK rose +1.8%YoY, PLF dipped slightly to 91.7% (-0.4ppt YoY). YTD, overall PLF fell 1.6ppt YoY to 91.7%, with weakness on all routes: domestic(-1.7ppt YoY to 93.4%), international (-1.8ppt YoY to 88.3%) and regional (-5.6pptYoY to 88.8%).
未署名
深圳机场 公路港口航运行业 2017-09-08 8.80 10.99 29.45% 8.98 2.05%
8.98 2.05% -- 详细
SACL's pax growth accelerated to 8.8% YoY in Aug-17, from 7.0% in Jul-17. In8M17, aggregate pax volume grew 8.0% YoY, above 4.8% in 8M16.。 Aircraft traffic growth improved to 5.9% YoY, following 4.3% in Jul-17, withhigher average daily landings of 945(vs. 926in Jul-17), thanks to the increase inpeak hour landings, we think. Average pax per aircraft also climbed, to 136from134in Jul-17. YTD, aircraft movement increased 6.9% YoY, up from 3.1% in 8M16.。 Cargo/mail volume growth recovered to +0.8% YoY, vs. -0.1% in Jul-17. In 8M17,cargo/mail volume growth was 5.0%, slower than 8.7% in 8M16.
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春秋航空 航空运输行业 2017-09-07 35.50 39.06 13.94% 36.75 3.52%
36.75 3.52% -- 详细
We led SPA on a non-deal roadshow in Hong Kong to meetwith various institutional investors on Sep 5, 2017, and ourconfidence in our full-year 2017 earnings estimate is rising; itimplies a 153% YoY rebound in 2H17. Reiterate OW. Stable 2H17 outlook: Preliminary Jul-Aug/17 results appeared to be satisfactoryto management. While SPA foresees a further passenger load factor drop of 1.5-2.0% YoY in 2H17, we expect earnings recovery after the inflection point in 2Q17. We note that lower summer PLF was led by effective ASP increases. Given a lowbase in 4Q16 led by a Rmb219mn loss, we expect meaningful earnings recovery in2H17. Decent domestic yields: Yield performance in some tier-2 cities (Shijiazhuang,Yangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu) appeared to be highly resilient. Capacityallocation will continue to be tilted towards domestic routes in 2H17. Stabilizing international routes: Both yields and margins on Japanese routesbegan to improve. Despite still-weak demand, most carriers are restrainingcapacity allocations to avoid competition and support yields. Although thevolumes on Korean routes continued to tumble (-60% YoY), we think the bulk ofthat challenge has already been seen. For Thailand, as unfavorable policy towardgroup tourism remained unchanged, reasonable volume recovery was in the lowteens. New routes to expand: Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, andMaldives. For regional routes, SPA expected some growth in Macau in 2H17 andimproving demand to Hong Kong. Limited fleet expansion in 2018: Due to stringent CAAC regulations, SPAexpected limited aircraft additions, at 4-6 in 2018, followed by the delivery of 12new A321 aircraft in 2019. In the near term, SPA will take delivery of 4 aircraft in2H17, vs. 7 in 1H17. Limited capacity growth means the company will need tobalance between PLFs, yields and aircraft utilization to achieve profitmaximization, in our view. Sustainable subsidies income: In response to questions on government subsidies,management believed such income would maintain stable growth in the next 3-5years, driven by the demand of the governments in tier-2/3 cities to boostpassenger volumes in local airports. Moreover, more established airports (e.g.,Shijiazhuang) will still need to keep incentives for the airlines to help achievetheir growth targets.
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万华化学 基础化工业 2017-08-18 34.00 41.46 9.13% 42.87 26.09%
43.68 28.47% -- 详细
What's new: According to BorsodChem, due to an unforeseen technical problemat one critical raw material supplier, BorsodChem has been forced to haltproduction at its MDI plant in Kazincbarcika, Hungary. Chlorine/Caustic sodaproduction at the site is also affected. As a result, BorsodChem has suspendeddeliveries of all MDI products and Chlorine/Caustic Soda effective 14th August2017. BorsodChem is part of Wanhua Group and is a leading producer of MDI,TDI and other speciality chemicals in Central and Eastern Europe. Implication for Wanhua - potentially positive: We see positive impact onWanhua, as 1) BorsodChem is under Wanhua Group, but not the listed company,therefore, the production suspension won't have any negative impact on Wanhualisted arm; 2) the production suspension at BorsodChem is likely to intensifysupply tightness in the near term, which could further boost the MDI price. Asillustrated in Exhibit 1, Wanhua's profit is positively related to MDI price, andhigher MDI price would serve as a positive catalyst.
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大秦铁路 公路港口航运行业 2017-08-14 8.66 12.70 37.59% 9.45 9.12%
9.45 9.12% -- 详细
Sustained volume momentum: Daqin Railway’s coal throughput growthremained robust at 44.1% YoY in Jul-17, though moderating from 49.0% in Jun-17.Sequentially, the 36.3mt throughput represented 1.7% MoM increase from35.8mt in Jun-17. In the first seven months of 2017, Daqin’s coal volumes haverebounded 34.7% YoY, a reversal from the -23.8% YoY weakness in the sameperiod of 2016. Further demand recovery: The robust volume growth was driven by continueddemand recovery, as the average coal price in Jul-17reached Rmb597.2/ton(+42.6% YoY and +4.9% MoM). Meanwhile, coal inventory at Qinhuangdaosurged 96.8% YoY to 5.415mt, up 2.2% MoM from 5.3mt in Jun-17.
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华润三九 医药生物 2017-03-10 25.37 32.82 11.18% 27.96 10.21%
30.76 21.25%
详细
The prescription drug portfolio benefited from the antibioticsof Zhongyi and the high-growth cardiovascular brand withKunming Shenghuo acquisition. We expect the OTC alliancewith Sanofi to lift OTC growth in 2017. Overview of 4Q financials: Sales came in at Rmb2.8bn, +18% YoY, ahead of ourexpectation of 11% YoY. Prescription sales growth benefitted from the Shenghuoand Zhongyi acquisitions. Gross margins improved 1.3ppt vs. 4Q15 to 61.9%, alsobenefiting from higher-margin prescription sales. Net profit came in atRmb329mn, up 5% YoY, exclusive of the one-time gain of Rmb128mn from thedisposal of CR Sanjiu Brain Hospital in 4Q15. Including the gain, net profit wouldhave declined 22% YoY. On a full-year basis, sales increased 14% vs. 2015, in linewith our expectation, while net profit excluding the disposal gain grew 7% YoYbut declined 4% if the gain were included. Sanjiu declared a dividend payout ofRmb0.16/share for a payout ratio of 13%. Prescription sales grew a robust 26% YoY in 2H: CR Sanjiu discloses segmentdata on a semiannual basis. OTC sales, which made up 51% of sales in 2H, grew2% YoY, slowing down markedly from 13% YoY growth in 1H. Keep in mind thatSanjiu's OTC franchise is much more mature than its prescription portfolio, asmost of Sanjiu's ten OTC specialty brands have annual sales exceedingRmb100mn. We expect liver supplement Essentiale from Sanofi and other OTCbrands injected from Sanofi via the deal shall lift OTC sales growth in 2017. Sanjiu's prescription sales, mostly focusing on oncology and cardiovasculardiseases, consist of TCM injections, oral TCM formulations, antibiotics, andconcentrated formula granules. Sales in 2H benefited appreciably from theacquisition of Zhongyi (oral antibiotics) in August 2015, and the acquisition ofKunming Shenghuo (core brand Lixuewang) in July 2016. Its largest antibiotic,Xintailin, grew 17% YoY in 4Q, according to our sample hospital data. TCM injections continued to be a drag on prescription sales: Sales of Shenfu andHuachansu injections declined 14% and 16% YoY in 4Q (hospital data). The justreleased2017 revisions to the NRDL place further restrictions on Sanjiu's Shenfu,Shenmai, Shengmai, Danshen, Xiangdan, Honghua, and Huachansu injections,which we think could exacerbate the decline. Encouragingly, concentratedformula granules (around 10-15% of overall sales) again posted around 20%growth in 2016.
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上汽集团 交运设备行业 2017-03-10 25.01 30.34 -- 25.94 3.72%
30.73 22.87%
详细
February sales were up 2% YoY but down 33% MoM, at 421,803 units: Amongits major JVs, SAIC VW sales decreased 14% YoY and 45% MoM in February. Salesof SAIC GM increased 6% YoY, but were down 40% MoM in February, and salesof SAIC GM Wuling were flattish YoY, but down 17% MoM. For the first twomonths sales, SAIC VW declined 4% YoY and SAIC GM Wuling declined 8% YoY,while SAIC-GM achieved 5% YoY growth. SAIC own brand sales increased 154% YoY, but declined 18% MoM in February:SAIC own brand sales increased 100% YoY in 2M17. SAIC launched its new SUVmodel RX5 in July 2016, and sales ramp-up of RX5 has been stronger thanexpected. Monthly sales of RX5 reached ~25k units in December 2016, and ~20kunits in January 2017, and exceeded the sales of other popular domestic SUVmodels. Despite that, RX5 sales declined to 12k units in February 2017, we believethis is mainly due weak demand after Chinese New Year in late January andexpect sales of RX5 to recover over the remainder of this year. As such, weexpect the profitability of SAIC's own brands to be boosted by the strong salesof RX5 in 2017. Private A-share placement to support SAIC's long-term development: The ChinaSecurities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved SAIC's A-share privateplacement in December 2016, and SAIC will be able to raise ~Rmb15bn via thisplacement. The company said it intends to use the proceeds from the placementfor NEV-related projects, smart mass customization projects of CVs, R&D for fuelcell vehicles, smart driving and Internet applications and other projects. Weexpect these projects to support the long-term development of SAIC. We maintain OW on SAIC: We expect SAIC's two JVs to be less affected by taxincreases in 2017 than domestic brands, and we expect strong sales momentumof SAIC's own brand to improve its profitability. The private placement shouldsupport SAIC's long-term development. SAIC trades at 2017E P/E of 6.9x , a ~54%discount to the average of ~15x for A-share automakers. SAIC's high dividendyield (7.3% for 2017E) leaves limited downside.
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上海机场 公路港口航运行业 2017-02-22 27.75 32.22 -- 28.89 4.11%
39.77 43.32%
详细
SIAC's pax growth was sustained at 11.3% YoY in Jan-17 vs. 11.7% in Dec-16,reflecting robust pre-CNY travel demand. While growth remained strong ondomestic (+13.5% vs. +12.0%) and international (+11.8% vs. +13.7%) routes,regional routes showed weakness at -0.8% YoY vs. +2.8% in Dec-16. Aircraft movement grew 4.5% YoY, down slightly from 6.0% in Dec-16. Theslowdown was led by weaker performances on all routes: domestic (+4.9% vs. +7.3%), international (+5.1% vs. +6.5%) and regional (-0.7% vs. -0.1%). Cargo/mail throughput growth normalized to 6.7% YoY in Jan-17 from 13.3% inDec-16 due to the CNY holiday effect. Specifically, while internationalmomentum slowed (+9.7% vs. +15.5%), domestic and regional volume fell 3.4%and 0.3% YoY, following 6.5% and 7.6% growth in Dec-16. CAAC penalty update: According to CAAC official news, on January 22, 2017,approval of temporary flights, chartered flights and new route applications bySIAC will continued to cease due to its low on-time ratio from March toDecember 2016. SIAC has been under the same sanction since May 2016.
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深圳机场 公路港口航运行业 2017-02-16 8.19 8.81 3.77% 8.86 8.18%
9.70 18.44%
详细
What's new: SACL has announced that the board has agreed to terminate theleasing contract with Shenzhen Zhenghong Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. regarding Airport Terminals A and B, while it intends to take legal action toprotect the company and shareholders’ interests. Shenzhen Airport Terminals Aand B are currently leased to Zhenghong for 16 years (including a one-year, rentfreeperiod) since 4Q15. But Shenzhen Urban Planning and Land ResourcesCommittee recently informed the company that owing to a recent change in theconstruction planning of the airport area, the site has been preliminarilydetermined as the national high speed rail hub location, therefore suggestingthat Terminals A and B will not be used as a commercial complex temporarily. Asa result, Zhenghong intended to terminate the leasing contract. SACL has notreceived rental since Dec 2016. Implications: We think there is a lot of uncertainty regarding arrangement of theA and B terminals. Management confirmed that the company retains ownershipof the property. We estimate pre-tax rental income from the A and B terminallease at Rmb16.9mn for 2016 and Rmb67.5mn for 2017. If SACL cannot receiverental from Dec 2016, our net profit estimate for 2016/2017 would be negativelyaffected by 1%/7%. What's next: SACL plans to hold an special general meeting on March 2, 2017, toseek shareholders’ approval for the contract termination.
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春秋航空 航空运输行业 2017-02-15 36.87 51.69 50.79% 39.98 7.91%
39.79 7.92%
详细
SPA’s RPK growth improved further to +22.4% YoY in Jan-17, from +17.8% in Dec-16, reflecting robust traffic demand during the CNY period. Both domestic andinternational routes showed stronger momentum at +30.2%/+11.7% YoY,respectively, vs. +29.9%/-1.4% in Dec-16, while regional routes showed weakness(-1.5% vs. +12.3% YoY in Dec-16). Given +20.9% ASK growth YoY, SPA’s PLF improved by 1.1ppt YoY to 92.7% inJan-17. Specifically, domestic PLF edged up 0.7ppt YoY to 94.1% on 29.2% ASKgrowth YoY, while international PLF improved 1.5ppt YoY to 89.9% on 9.8% YoYASK growth. As regional ASK declined by -2.1% YoY, regional PLF improved by0.5ppt YoY to 93.5%.
未署名
深圳机场 公路港口航运行业 2017-02-15 8.17 8.81 3.77% 8.86 8.45%
9.70 18.73%
详细
Pax momentum accelerated slightly – to +11.4% YoY in Jan-17, from +10.9% inDec-16, driven by robust pax traffic during the CNY period. Aircraft movement growth moderated but was still strong – at +8.4% in Jan-17,vs. +9.8% in Dec-16. As a result, average pax per aircraft rose to 132, from 130 inDec-16. Average daily landings were also higher at 923/day, vs. 910/day in Dec-16. Cargo and mail volume, however, showed weakness – at -2.1% YoY, reversingfrom the positive YoY trend since Mar-16, mainly because of lower businessactivity during the CNY holiday.
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宇通客车 交运设备行业 2016-12-21 19.60 26.79 3.76% 19.95 1.79%
21.07 7.50%
详细
Operating cashflow and working capital should improve: Yutong announcedthat it has received a subsidy of Rmb3.09bn (out of Rmb3.23bn total) regardingOctober to December 2015 NEV sales. Yutong's accounts receivable balancecontinued to increase to Rmb12.9bn as of end-3Q16 from Rmb11.2bn at end-1H16,mainly reflecting an increase in government subsidy receivables. Thus, we expectthe settlement of 2015 NEV subsidy receivable to improve its 2016 operatingcashflow and working capital. In addition, given the strong NEV bus sales in December, we believe Yutong willbe able to achieve this annual NEV sales target of 25k units for 2016: That'sdespite the uncertainty in NEV policy. We maintain our OW rating on Yutong: Its 3Q16 GP margin improved both YoYand QoQ thanks to an improving product mix as well as declining EV batterycost. We expect the potential relaxation of the ban on usage of NCM batteries inNEV buses in 2017 could help Yutong to lower its costs and maintain stablemargins for its NEV buses, despite a tapering subsidy scheme in the next year. Moreover, we believe its high dividend yield (~6.6% in 2016e) makes it anattractive investment against a backdrop of declining return on financialproducts in China.
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春秋航空 航空运输行业 2016-11-28 41.78 51.69 50.79% 42.98 2.87%
42.98 2.87%
详细
As part of management's incentive plan, SPA announced the granting of580,000 shares of restricted stock (0.0725% of its existing shares) to 30 selectemployees. The shares are to be granted at Rmb24.29/share, with a valid periodof 66 months with four installment periods for unlocking. The first unlockingperiod starts 18 months after the record date. The shares will be unlocked at25% each period when weighted average profit per aircraft is no less thanRmb20mn. Subscription of the additional shares will contribute Rmb13.51mncash to capital reserves. After the shares are granted, Shanghai Spring International Travelservice Co., Ltd,the controlling shareholder of SPA, will have a slightly lower shareholding at62.95% from 63.00%.
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春秋航空 航空运输行业 2016-11-21 42.76 51.69 50.79% 42.98 0.51%
42.98 0.51%
详细
SPA’s RPK growth decelerated significantly to 11.5% YoY inOct-16, from 21.1% in Sep-16, reflecting sudden weakness inmarket demand. Specifically, the weakness was mainly led by a notable slowdown in internationalroutes to +13.5% YoY from +51.2%, and a decline in regional routes to -2.2% YoYfrom +4.9%. Domestic RPK ramped up marginally to +11.4% YoY from 10.9%,which may have been partly led by capacity reallocation. YTD, RPK growth remained weak at 11.5% YoY, vs. 46.3% YoY for the same periodin 2015. Specifically, RPK growth in domestic, international and regional routeswas -1.3%, 51.8% and -9.5% YoY, respectively. Due to demand weakness, ASK growth slowed to 16.1% YoY, from 25.5% in Sep-16, but was significantly higher than RPK growth. As result, PLF fell -3.6ppt YoYto 87.3% in Oct-16, with -4.4ppt and -3.2ppt YoY in domestic and internationalPLFs, to 78.3% and 91.7%, respectively - the lowest levels seen in 2016. For the first 10months of 2016, overall PLF was 92.2% (-1.4ppt YoY). PLFs ondomestic, international and regional routes remained high at 94.5% (-0.7ppt),88.1% (-1.5ppt) and 94.1% (+1.9ppt), respectively.
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