NPAT up 1% yoy from better control on cost-income ratio CCB reported H116 NPAT of Rmb133.4bn, up 1% yoy, tracking 61% and 59% of our& consensus 2016E estimates. Q216 NPAT was Rmb65.5bn up 1% yoy. PPoP in Q216dropped by 1% yoy with (1) NII declined by 9% yoy mainly due to continual NIMcontraction (-17bp qoq), (2) loan growth at 10% yoy (3% qoq), (3) fee income droppedby 3% yoy, (4) annualized credit cost fell 3bp qoq to 0.98%, (5) cost income ratio was27.3% vs 26.3% in Q116 or 33.2% in 2015. According to the disclosure, its interestincome from loans decreased by 12.6% yoy in H116, mainly due to the: (1) loan repricing,and (2) business tax to value-added tax reform. Its effective tax rate came in at21.2% in H116, down from 23.3% in 2015, mainly because its interest income fromgov’t bonds was tax-exempted. Solid retail loan growth; stable asset quality CCB’s retail loans grew by 24% yoy, which are mostly contributed by residentialmortgages (i.e., 82% of total retail loans as of H116). Its NPL balance increased 3%qoq while NPL ratio was well maintained at 1.63%, lower than the industry average of1.75%. Coverage ratio was 152%, and provision-to-loan ratio increased 1bp qoq to2.48%.。 Capital position remains strong CCB’s capital strength continues to stand in a strong position amid Chinese banks; itsCET1 ratio, T1 CAR and total CAR came at 13.06%, 13.24% and 15.09%, respectively,as of H116. We believe CCB will be positioned later in the queue for capital-raising andfaces limited risks of DPS and EPS dilution. Valuation: Maintain Rmb6.10 PT and Buy rating CCB-A is currently trading at 0.85x our 2016 P/B estimate. We derive our price targetbased on the PB/ROE valuation method. Our target P/BV of 0.98x is based on a longtermsustainable ROE of 10.4%, a cost of equity of 10.5% and a long-term growth rateof 5%. We view the current valuation as still attractive and maintain our Buy rating.

H116 net profit down 57% YoY, slightly better than the industry averageH116 net profit fell 57% YoY (industry average: -59%) to Rmb2.84bn, equivalent to41% of our full-year estimate. EPS dropped 65% YoY, caused by H-share IPO dilution. Revenue from brokerage & wealth management/investment banking/assetmanagement/investment & trading/overseas & others accounted for 72%/13%/16%/8%/-10% of total revenue. The contribution of investment banking and assetmanagement to revenue went up; the contribution of brokerage was basically flat; thecontribution of investment & trading fell. Book value decreased 2.2% HoH due to anRmb3.58bn provision for 2015 dividends. Brokerage market share at 8% for six straight monthsH116 brokerage revenue was Rmb2.89bn, down 59% YoY, due to shrinking tradingvolume and declining commission rates. Meanwhile, brokerage market share was7.96%, putting Huatai in the top position in the industry. However, Huatai's brokerageshare has stayed at c8% for six consecutive months, suggesting the company may befacing a bottleneck to expand market share. In April 2016, Huatai announced plans toacquire a 100% stake in AssetMark for US$780m, which we view as a high price(implies 79x 2015 PE and 5.65x P/B). However, we think the acquisition has strategicvalue, as AssetMark could help expand Huatai's investment management serviceabilities and lift its brokerage share again. Investment banking and asset management fared wellH116 investment banking revenue was Rmb835m, up 36% YoY; asset managementrevenue was Rmb734m, up 29% YoY, with assets under management of Rmb824.1bnat end-H116 (+54% YoY). The margin financing balance stood at Rmb50.1bn (-56%YoY), in addition to market share of 5.87%; the stock-pledging repurchase balancegrew to Rmb41.7bn. Total interest income from margin lending and stock pledgingwas down 38% YoY to Rmb2.84bn. The effective leverage ratio was 3.85x at end-H116, higher than the industry average of 2.75x. In view of Rmb57.6bn of cash on itsbooks, we expect Huatai to continue deleveraging at a time when market sentiment isunlikely to recover quickly. Valuation: Maintain Rmb25.59 price target and Buy ratingWe maintain our PB/ROE-based PT of Rmb25.59, implying 2.0x 2017E P/B, and our Buyrating.

NPAT up 18% YoY in H116 or 68% of 2016 UBS-ePing An's net profit after tax (NPAT) rose 18% YoY in H116 to Rmb40.8bn, implyingthat it was up 37% YoY in Q216. However, profit before tax (PBT) declined 6% YoY,affected by capital market volatility and a decline in the 750-day moving averagegovernment bond yield. A 50% YoY drop in income tax partially offset the decliningPBT. Changes of insurance contract actuarial assumptions resulted in a cRmb9.2bndecrease in H116 PBT (approximately 16% of PBT). Other comprehensive loss in H116was Rmb9.1bn vs a loss of Rmb11.2bn at end-March 2016. Book value rose 9% HoHto Rmb19.91/share. Dividend per share was Rmb0.20 (+11% YoY). NBV up 43% YoY; P&C combined ratio affected by product mix changesPremium income for life insurance rose 33% YoY in H116 (+34% YoY in Q2). Agentchannel premium income rose 32% YoY, among which new policies rose 43% YoY. The strong new business premium translated to 43% new business value (NBV) growthin H116 (+38% in Q116, +48% in Q216). Property & casualty (P&C) premium incomewas Rmb83.8bn, up 3% YoY, 84% of which was contributed by auto insurance, up14% YoY. Gross written premium from non-motor premium declined 39% YoY inH116, mainly due to decreasing credit insurance premiums. The combined ratio was95.3% (vs. 94.3% in Q116, 96.4% in Q216), deteriorating from 93.6% in H115 due toproduct mix changes. No serious credit risk at Group levelH1 net investment yield of the insurance fund was 5.7% (5.1% in H115). Totalinvestment yield was 4.4% (7.7% in H115). Profit contribution from Ping An Bank(PAB) was Rmb7.1bn (+6.1% YoY), or 17% of the Group's total NPAT. PAB's NIS andNIM were 2.67% (2.76% in Q1) and 2.79% (2.87% in Q1). Its NPL ratio was flat withQ1, at 1.56%, but provision coverage fell 19bps to 160.82%. The company's core tier1 capital was 8.5% at June 2016, lower than the sector average of 10.7%. Valuation: Maintain Rmb43.45 PT and Buy ratingOur sum-of-the-parts based price target of Rmb43.45 implies 1.38x 2016E P/EV. Wemaintain our Buy rating.

H116 net profit down 68% YoY, but Q216 net profit up 88% QoQ The company reported H116 revenue of Rmb1.166bn (-25.7% YoY) and net profit ofRmb337m (-67.7% YoY), basically in line with the preliminary earnings estimates. ROEand net margin were 3.76% and 28.9% in H116, down significantly from 43.9% and66.4% in H115. The good news is: Q216 net profit came in at Rmb220m, up 87.7%QoQ, showing a sequential improvement. Fund distribution revenue down notably, main reason for H116 net profit drop In H116, financial e-commerce/securities/financial data/advertisements accounted for41%/44%/11%/5% of the company's revenue, respectively. Financialdata/advertisement revenue was +9.5%/+8.6% YoY. Securities revenue wasRmb509m, becoming an important earnings support. However, against a sluggishsecurities market and intensified competition, fund distribution revenue droppedsubstantially and dragged down the company's revenue. In H116, total operating costswere Rmb776m (up 120% YoY), mainly due to an increase in administrative expenses(Rmb524m in H116, Rmb281m of which was from Dongcai Securities), indicating itslarge strategic investment to explore Internet finance business. Securities business progressing steadily The company's securities business was progressing steadily, with brokerage share risingrapidly. In June 2016, brokerage share reached 0.80%, registering a 10% compoundmonthly growth rate since May 2015. Its brokerage share ranking advanced to No. 33from No. 71, with commission rate at 0.029% in H116. Currently, the company'scustomers are mainly minor customers, and we expect its customer mix to optimize. InH116, Dongcai Securities recorded an investment loss of Rmb93.32m (includingchanges in fair value); investment performance was below our expectation. Thesecurities subsidiary completed a capital increase in H116, with net asset increased toRmb5.59bn. We believe the substantial enhancement in capital strength should helpfurther explore its securities business. Valuation: slightly cut EPS estimates and price target; maintain Buy Given the investment loss (missing our expectation) and intensified competition in thesecurities sector, we are cutting our 2016-18E EPS estimates by 9%/5%/5% and lowerour PE-based price target to Rmb24.84 (maintaining 2017E target PE at 48x). Wecontinue to be bullish on the prospects of the company's Internet securities business. Maintain Buy.

An internet transition beneficiary, with market share likely to rise We view Sinolink as a good example of a smaller broker that has benefitted from a shifttoward internet business. Since the launch of Yongjinbao in Feb 2014, itsbrokerage/margin financing market share has continued to rise and reached1.52%/0.69%, respectively, in 4M16, 106%/61% higher than in Feb 2014. We believeinvestors will focus more on transaction costs and user experience amid a weak marketenvironment. We think its market share may continue to rise due to its low-priceexpansion strategy and good user experience. Commission rate subject to downside risks; cost pressure persists Sinolink has adopted a low-price strategy, while its commission rate was only slightlylower than industry average in Q116. We believe its commission rate will face downsiderisks if the market recovers or Sinolink exerts more effort on quality customerdevelopment. Since the company is in a business development period, we do not thinkthe company can easily cut costs/expenses. We estimate its administrative expense ratiowill remain high in the next 1-2 years but we think expansion of business scale and itsrevenue base is the key to Sinolink's growth and costs/expenses have a minimal impacton its profit. Cutting 2016-18E EPS on weak market and intensified competition expectations We are cutting our 2016-18E EPS 25%/20%/17% to Rmb0.49/0.66/0.79, mainly as: 1)we are lowering our 2016-18 sector assumption for average daily turnover and averagemargin financing balance; 2) we are reducing the investment yield assumption in 2016-18 to reflect lower overall market investment returns; and 3) Sinolink's aggregate netprofit after tax (parent level) was Rmb550m in 5M16. Valuation: New price target of Rmb16.90; maintain Buy rating We have changed our valuation method to PB/ROE, considering industry characteristics.Assuming a stable market, we assume Sinolink's average ROE over the next five years at11.3% and long-term ROE of 12.5%. We derive our new price target of Rmb16.90based on 2.80x 2016E PB, implying 25.6x 2017E PE and 2.67x 2017E PB. We maintainour Buy rating, as we are positive on its growth potential from the internet businesstransition and the fact that its current valuation is at a historical trough.

Pressure on brokerage share; flow-based business to grow if market recovers. Industrial Securities has shifted towards high-end wealth management in recent years. Although it has held off on cutting commission rates, its brokerage market share is nowregistering modest declines (2015: -5% YoY; 4M16: -3%). We are concerned aboutdownside risk to its share in brokerage given intensifying industry competition and ahigher-than-average commission rate in Q1 (0.045%). Meanwhile, its share in marginlending has remained stable for many years. Considering Industrial's abundant capitaland strong customer mix, we think its flow-based business could enjoy rapid growth ifthe market recovers. Administrative penalty from CSRC; investment banking unit back to normal. On 8 July 2016, the company received a notice of administrative penalty from theCSRC. The regulator imposed Rmb57.38m in penalties on Industrial Securities(confiscating Rmb12m in IPO sponsorship revenue along with a Rmb24m fine, andconfiscating Rmb20.78m in underwriting income along with a Rmb600k fine). Inaddition, the company has proactively set aside Rmb550m to set up a specialcompensation fund for investors in Xintai Electric. Though Industrial's investmentbanking business has recovered earlier than we or the market expected, we believe itsbrand and investment banking business have both sustained some damage. Lowering 2016-18E earnings on weak market activity and fiercer competition. We are downgrading our 2016-18E EPS 43%/26%/18% to Rmb0.28/0.40/0.48, basedon the following: 1) we are lowering our 2016-18 core sector assumptions (ADT andaverage margin lending balance); 2) we are lowering our 2016-18E investment yield forthe company, given an overall drop in investment yields; 3) the aggregate NPAT (at theparent company level) of Industrial was Rmb894m in 5M16; and 4) the direct andindirect impact of the regulatory penalty. Valuation: New Rmb9.45 price target; upgrading to Buy. We are changing our valuation method to PB/ROE given industry characteristics. Assuming a stable market, we estimate average ROE of 8.8% in the next 5 years andlong-term sustainable ROE of 10.0%. We derive our new Rmb9.45 PT by applying2.00x P/B to our 2016E BVPS, implying 23.6x 2017E PE and 1.87x 2017E P/B. Webelieve the market has overreacted, as we foresee only a minor impact on mid/longtermprofitability from the investigation. Therefore, we upgrade the stock to Buy fromSell.

Market share is likely to stabilize in 2016 with an integrated business model Haitong Securities is one of the largest brokers in China and offers the mostcomprehensive financial services. It is near the lead in the sector in terms of equityresearch capabilities and number of investment consultants. Even with fiercecompetition, its brokerage market share was up 4.42% YoY to 4.99% in 2015.Although Haitong's brokerage market share fell to 4.71% in 4M16, we expect it tostabilize with the support of the company's integrated financial business model.Haitong's commission rate and margin trading & securities lending (MT&SL) interestrate are largely equivalent to others in the industry. Since Haitong has neverimplemented a low-price strategy to expand its businesses, we expect any decline in itscommission rate and MT&SL interest rate to be in line with the industry average. Strong cost management with steady and conservative strategy Over the past few years, Haitong has shown strong cost control with a steady andconservative strategy. In 2015, Haitong's SG&A expense ratio was only 29%, onlyslightly higher than Guosen among listed brokers, and much lower than majorcompetitors such as CITICS, Guotai Junan and Huatai. In Q116, the company's SG&Aexpense ratio was 36%, also at the lower end among listed brokers. Based on historicaldata, Haitong's SG&A expense ratio has been about 10ppts lower than CITICS's since2014. We expect Haitong to alleviate downward earnings pressure by enhancing itscost management to offset pressure from a revenue decrease. Cutting 2016-18E EPS on sluggish market and intensified competition We are cutting our 2016-18E EPS 37%/30%/29% to Rmb0.71/0.92/1.04, mainly as: 1)we are lowering our 2016-18E core sector assumptions for average daily turnover andaverage MT&SL balance; 2) we are reducing the investment yield assumption forHaitong in 2016-18E, given reduced overall investment yield in the market; and 3)Haitong's aggregate NPAT (parent level) was Rmb2.613bn in 5M16 Valuation: New price target of Rmb19.27; maintain Buy rating Given the attributes of the industry, we switched to PB/ROE methodology to derive ourtarget valuation. Under a stable market assumption, we estimate Haitong's averageROE at 9.1% in the next five years, with long-term sustainable ROE at 10.0%. Wederive our new price target of Rmb19.27 on 2x target PB based on 2016E BVPS,implying 21x 2017E PE and 1.87x PB. We maintain our Buy rating, given its relativelystable earnings and valuation being at a historical low.

Strong IT platform and low-price strategy to drive market share expansion. Huatai Securities (Huatai) was a key initiator of the pricing war and is one of the fewbrokers that benefit from the competition. Huatai is the clear leader in the brokeragebusiness, with market share of 8.37% at end-2015, up 6.05% YoY. In 4M16, itsmarket share expanded to 8.40%, and we believe its strong IT platform and low-pricestrategy will help it rise further. Currently, the company's commission rates are slightlyhigher than the average for new accounts opened and have stabilized in the last fourquarters. We believe any further decline would be limited. Falling SG&A expense partially offsets impact of revenue decline on results. In Q116, Huatai's SG&A expense was Rmb1.472bn, down 21% YoY, better thanCITICS, Haitong, Guotai Junan and Guangfa. Staff cost accounted for over 80% ofSG&A expense. As of end-2015, the company's headcount had increased 6.73% YoY,far lower than the industry average growth of 22%, and was lower than its ownemployee number at end-2011 and end-2012. We expect the company's full-year 2016SG&A expense to decrease YoY, which could partially offset the impact on earningsfrom revenue declines. We are cutting our 2016-18E EPS amid weak market and intense competition. We are cutting our 2016-18E EPS by 31%/28%/23% to Rmb0.91/1.14.1.34, mainly as:1) we lower our 2016-18 sector assumption for average daily turnover and averagemargin financing balance; 2) we reduce our 2016-18 investment yield assumption toreflect lower overall market investment returns; and 3) the aggregate NPAT (at theparent company level) of Huatai was Rmb2.187bn in 5M16. Valuation: New PT of Rmb25.59; maintain Buy rating. We have changed our valuation method to PB/ROE considering industry characteristics. Assuming a stable market, we forecast Huatai's average ROE over the next five years at9.8% and long-term ROE of 10.5%. We derive our new PT of Rmb25.59 based on2.20x 2016E P/B, implying 22.39x 2017E PE and 2.0x 2017E P/B. We maintain our Buyrating given Huatai's clear strategy of developing into an Internet-based broker and thevisible results, and that its current valuation is at a historical trough.

14% of total assets are denominated in US dollars. Given that expectations for rising US interest rates are likely to cause the RMB toweaken further in the short and medium term, we maintain our view that BOC has themost differentiated investment case among Chinese banks. Bank of China is not onlyless affected by a weakening RMB (24% of its earnings come from abroad), but itsUSD-denominated assets are also likely to enjoy a better NIM in the medium term. Withsimilar dividend yields among the big four banks, we reiterate our bullish stance onBank of China. cUS$87bn OBOR loan support in the pipeline. According to its annual report, in 2015, Bank of China extended US$28.6bn in loans(equivalent to 28% of new loans; including loans, letters of guarantee and letters ofcredit) to "One Belt, One Road" (OBOR) countries, covering about 330 major projects. The bank expressed its intent to lend about US$87bn in total (about 29% of ourforecast for total new loans in 2016 and 2017). As of end-2015, BOC had overseasorganisations in 46 countries and regions, including 18 in OBOR. Given that demandfor loans is still sluggish in China, this driving force for loans is positive for BOC. Extending forecast period to 2020. Given the deteriorating asset quality (rising credit costs) and interest rate liberalisation(narrowing NIM), we estimate Bank of China's net profit after tax will fall 1% YoY in2016. We believe earnings momentum is unlikely to pick up prior to 2018. Valuation: Maintain Buy rating; lowering PT to Rmb4.20. We base our price target on a target P/BV multiple of 0.9x applied to 2016E BVPS ofRmb4.49. We assume a long-term sustainable ROE of 9.9%, a cost of equity of 10.2%and a long-term growth rate of 5% to derive our target P/BV multiple. The stock istrading at 0.7x 2016E P/BV and the dividend yield is 5.3%. Our price target impliesc30% upside for the stock.

Already an industry leader in mega-asset management We expect mega-asset management to become an increasingly important part of Chinese banks' asset-light, fee income-driven growth strategies. ICBC is already an industry leader: in 2015, its outstanding balance of wealth management products (WMPs) accounted for over 16% of its total deposits and wealth management-related fee income made up over 8% of its total operating income, both the highest among China's big four banks. Coverage ratio fell to 141% in Q116 The bank's NPL balance increased by 14% QoQ in Q116, with its NPL ratio up 16bp QoQ to 1.66%. Similar to BOC, ICBC's coverage ratio fell below 150%—the minimum regulatory requirement—to 141% at end-Q116. We believe it would help ease the provisioning pressure on banks if the coverage ratio requirement is reduced. Forecasts now extended to 2020E We forecast ICBC's NPAT to drop by 6% YoY in 2016 and stabilise in 2017, given the impact of continuous asset quality deterioration (rising credit costs) and interest rate liberalisation (narrowing NIM). We believe earnings momentum is unlikely to pick up until 2018. Valuation: Maintain Buy and cut price target to Rmb5.40 We apply 1.02x P/BV to our 2016 BVPS estimate of Rmb5.30 to derive our price target.Our target P/BV is based on a long-term sustainable ROE of 9.4%, a cost of equity of 9.3% and a long-term growth rate of 5%. The stock is trading at 0.8x 2016E P/BV, with a 5.1% dividend yield. We view the current valuation as attractive and maintain our Buy rating.

Strong capital implies better EPS and DPS support. CCB has the highest capital level among China banks under our coverage, with a CET1ratio of 13.46% as at end-Q116. We think this is important because it implies CCB willbe later in the queue for capital-raising and hence ROE dilution. For investors, capitalraisingalso means dilution of EPS and hence DPS, which may have implications fordividend yields—an important indicator for Chinese banks investors in the currentmarket. Additionally, sector earnings are subdued and hence banks’ capability togenerate internal capital is deteriorating. We expect further ROE decline to lead topressure on P/BV valuations and thus banks' ability to raise capital in the secondarymarket. Based on these, we continue to prefer banks with better capital positions andreiterate our Buy rating on CCB. Non-interest income to support earnings growth. CCB's net fee income picked up quite strongly by 13% YoY or 54% QoQ in Q116,despite the relatively weak capital markets during this period. Key drivers werebancassurance, wealth management products, custodial business, credit card andelectronic banking. Investment gains rose by 273% YoY (from sales of available-for-salefinancial assets) and other operating income increased by 95% YoY (mainly driven byCCB's insurance business). We believe CCB’s strong non-interest income could helppartially offset the negative impacts of narrowing NIM and rising provisions. Forecasts now extended to 2020E. We forecast CCB's NPAT to drop 4% YoY in 2016 and stabilise in 2017, given theimpact of continuous asset quality deterioration (rising credit costs) and interest rateliberalisation (narrowing NIM). We believe earnings momentum is unlikely to pick upuntil 2018. Valuation: Maintain Buy and cut price target to Rmb6.10 (from Rmb7.70). We apply 0.98x P/BV to our 2016 BVPS estimate of Rmb6.26 to derive our price target. Our target P/BV is based on a long-term sustainable ROE of 10.4%, a cost of equity of10.5% and a long-term growth rate of 5%. CCB is trading at 0.8x 2016E P/BV, with a5.5% dividend yield. Our new price target implies 27% absolute upside.

预期2016年产险业务承保盈利将持续改善 我们认为公司股价当前估值已充分反映了市场对公司产险业务基本面下行风险的预期,但并未反映公司产险业务基本面改善。随着车险综合成本率正常化,我们预计太保2016年产险市占率将趋于平稳。这有望打消投资者对公司基本面的担忧。此外,我们注意到过去18个月公司持续严控承保程序、主动放弃市场份额以提高毛利率的努力已初见成效。 具有向综合金融控股集团发展的可能 许多上市保险公司正积极通过并购、联营来扩张业务板块,以实现更好的交叉销售、成本控制以及在目前分业监管环境下更为灵活的产品创新。上市保险公司中,太保是少数尚未在保险业务以外投资的公司。我们认为,太保或有寻求机会以实现多元化经营的可能,长期来看机会与风险并存。同时公司寿险业务持续向好,产险业务不断改善。 将2016-18E净利润分别上调4.9%/5.8%/14.9% 我们上调盈利预测,主要基于:1)考虑到公司风险定价体系较好,公司车险承保盈利有望好转,下调2016-18E综合成本率1.4%/1.9%/2.3%至98.8%/98.9%/99.0%;2)考虑到代理人规模扩张和产品结构改善,我们将2016-18E代理人渠道首年保费增速调高8%/3%/0%至22%/15%/12%,同期新业务价值增速达20%/15%/12%;3)同时我们将2016-18E投资收益率分别下调70bps/60bps/47bps至4.5%/4.5%/4.5%。 估值:小幅上调目标价至34.65元,维持“买入”评级 基于1)考虑到公司非寿险业务实现盈利并逐渐向好,我们将产险业务估值由1.0xP/B上调至1.2xP/B;2)下调内含价值里长期投资收益率假设95BP至4.25%,根据分部估值法,我们将中国太保-A目标价上调3%至34.65元,对应1.56x2016EP/EV。

新业务价值增速有望超同业,产险毛利率较高 我们预计平安未来几年的新业务价值增速和产险承保利润将持续并稳健。除代理人规模迅速增长超预期外(2015年同比+37%),平安代理人人均产能也在持续提高。我们预计渠道升级将成为保费收入增长的主要驱动。同时我们认为公司2016年新业务价值仍将维持15%-20%的高增速。产险方面,直销、电网销方面的优势将使公司在产险领域保持领先地位。 信用风险整体可控 我们认为平安集团的信用风险敞口可控,目前尚未看到集团层面的信用风险恶化。平安成为控股股东后,平安银行资本实力更强且在坏账处理方面更严格。为减少信用风险敞口,平安集团减少了融资类信托及房地产类信托的占比。通常被看作高风险的陆金所P2P业务,交易量占比已从2014年底的10.4%降至3.4%。在采用分部估值法进行估值时,我们对平安银行采用0.5xP/BV,对非寿险业务采用0.8xP/BV。 2016-18ENPAT分别下调2.6%/4.5%/3.3% 我们将2016-18EEPS从3.35/3.72/4.21元下调至3.26/3.55/4.08元,基于:1)考虑利率下行,我们将2016-18E投资收益率分别下调15bps/10bps/0bps至5.0%/4.8%/4.8%;2)我们认为公司风险定价能力强,车险盈利将带来惊喜,因此将2016-18E综合成本率由96.8%/97.7%/97.4%下调至95.7%/96.2%/96.5%;3)我们上调同期个人渠道首年保费增速为29%/15%/10%,新业务价值增长率小幅上升至20%/15%/12%。 估值:下调目标价至43.45元,维持"买入"评级 我们将长期投资收益率假设由5.5%下调至4.5%,基于分部估值法将目标价由49.28元下调至43.45元,下调12%。新目标价对应1.38x2016EP/EV,维持"买入"评级。

2015.1-3Q净利润同比增长52.4%。 2015.1-3Q净利润482.76亿元、同比+52.4%,其中3Q同比+32.0%。1-3Q净利润达到瑞银2015年全年预测的90%。尽管6月以来股市大幅下跌,但3Q投资收益仍实现同比+13.3%,1-3Q投资收益同比+126%。2015.1-3Q保险资金年化净投资收益率和总投资收益率分别为5.6%和7.8%。业绩靓丽主要受益于寿险、产险和银行业务的强劲表现。但值得注意的是,受股债两市市场波动影响,公司3Q末净资产较2Q末下降0.9%至3283亿元。 保险业务稳健增长。 2015.1-3Q 保费收入2341亿元,同比+16.2%。个人渠道保费收入2108亿元,同比+18.4%,其中新签保单642亿元,同比+51.7%。营销员人均每月首年保费同比+18.6%,显示个人产能大幅提高。我们预计2015年全年新业务价值增长将超过20%。产险保费收入1216亿元、同比+15.7%,其中交叉销售、电销、网销收入540亿元,占产险收入的44%。1-3Q综合成本率为94.4%,同比降低50bps。 互联网金融持续带来增长。 2015.1-3Q平安银行净利润177亿元、同比+13.0%,净利息差由1H的2.71%提升至2.73%。受益于管理层加强运营和严格成本控制,平安银行成本率有所降低;但受宏观环境影响,我们预计资产质量存在压力,4Q不良资产覆盖率或提升。互联网金融业务持续强劲增长,9月互联网用户达1.97亿,较年初+43.2%。 互联网金融用户达1.45亿,其中33.7%仍持有传统金融产品。 估值:维持“买入评级,维持目标价49.28。 我们维持基于SOTP模型推导得出的目标价49.28元不变,对应1.77x 2015E P/EV或12.8x隐含新业务倍数,维持“买入”评级。

2015年上半年税后净利同比增长 1%中国银行公布2015年上半年实现税后净利907亿元,同比增长1%。2015年2季度税后净利增长1%(环比下跌2%)至449亿元。2015年2季度净利息收入及净手续费收入同比分别增长3%和11%,而在最近的降息后,净息差环比则收窄7个基点;拨备前利润同比温和增长3%,成本收入比良好控制在35.5%。2015年2季度年化信用成本从2015年1季度的64个基点和2014年的58个基点温和攀升至67个基点。有一点比较不利的是,2015年2季度贷款/存款增长迟滞(环比分别增长1%和持平)。 积极管理外汇敞口 从该行投资中的外汇敞口看,2015年上半年末美元、港元及其他占比分别为14.3%,4.3%和3.7%。值得注意的是,其他货币余额较2014年下半年实际上增长了87%,意味着中行从人民币和美元资产转移。2015年上半年中行的衍生品敞口较2014年下半年增加了14%,主要受汇率和利率衍生品推动。2015年上半年衍生品名义规模占总资产的比例达到27%。投资信托和资产管理计划较2014年下半年增加了118%至3360亿元,虽然占总资产的比例只有2%。 资产质量压力犹存 2015年2季度不良贷款余额环比增长7%,2015年2季度末不良贷款率为1.41%,环比升高8个基点。虽然2015年2季度整体拨备同比仅温和增加了17%,但实际结构发生改变,单独评估的减值损失占比达到69%,而2014年上半年时为29%。鉴于拨备覆盖率进一步降至157%(监管最低要求为150%)、资产质量继续恶化,我们认为拨备压力犹存。 估值:维持目标价6.00元及“买入”评级 我们的估值采用PB/ROE估值法,目标价基于15年每股账面价值4.09元人民币、1.46倍PB得出。我们假设中长期ROE为13.3%,COE为10.7%、长期增长率为5%。我们维持公司“买入”评级。