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宁德时代 机械行业 2022-09-02 480.00 787.00 88.58% 476.49 -0.73% -- 476.49 -0.73% -- 详细
Q2盈利迅速恢复、业绩大超预期。H1营收1130亿,同比增长156%;归母净利润81.7亿,同+82%,扣非净利润71亿,同比+80%;Q2收入643亿,同环比+158%/32%,净利润66.8亿,同环比+164%/347%;扣非净利润60.7亿,同环比+170%/522%;毛利率21.9%,同环比-5/+7pct,净利率10.4%,同环比+0.2/+7pct,扣非净利率9.5%,同环比+0.4/+7.4pct。 动力Q2顺价+追溯、盈利强势恢复,2H环比进一步提升。1H动力收入791亿,同+160%,预计出货量90gwh+,均价0.97元/wh,同比+10.5%;其中,预计Q2为47gwh+,环比微增,均价1元/wh+,环比+12%,收入430亿+,环比增近20%。Q3预计出货量65gwh,环+37%,Q4冲量,全年动力出货量250gwh+,同+115%。盈利方面,1H毛利率15%,环-8pct,单位毛利0.13元/wh,净利0.03元/wh,预计贡献利润27亿;预计Q2毛利率18-19%,环比大增8pct,受益于价格传导+追溯Q1涨价,预计单位毛利恢复至0.17元/wh,净利0.07元/wh。2H由于原材料价格松动+规模化效应,且金属联动执行更顺畅,毛利率预计较1H进一步提升,全年预期16-17%,单位净利润0.5-0.6元/wh,合计动力利润贡献140-150亿。出口方面,1H电池收入223亿(含储能),同+123%,对应近20gwh,毛利率15.2%,略好于国内1.6pct,预计全年出口超60gwh。 储能低价订单交付盈利承压、2H盈利拐点,其他业务贡献超预期。1H储能收入127亿,同+171%,预计出货量13gwh+,均价1元/wh+,毛利率大幅跌至6.4%,同比降30pct,主要交付前期低价大电站项目订单所致,预计1H亏损4-5亿,预计2H起储能电池顺价,且户储起量,盈利有望改善,全年出货预期45gwh,利润贡献8亿+。1H其他业务收入74亿,同+88%,毛利率75%,同+18pct,利润贡献39亿,占50%,超预期,预计该收入具备可持续性。1H材料业务收入137亿,同+174%,毛利率21%,同比基本持续,预计贡献11亿业绩,同比大增2倍。 Q2费用控制得当、锂盐投资收益亮眼,存货增加为2H冲量做储备。 H1期间费用率10.9%,Q2为9.6%,同环比-2.4/-1.4pct。1H投资收益18亿,同+14倍,其中天宜锂业贡献12亿,出售参股公司股权贡献3亿+,且多集中于Q2确认,Q2投资收益13.3亿,环+189%。H1末公司存货755亿,较年初+88%,其中原材料143亿,+80%,库存商品296亿,+73%,发出商品157亿,+90%,电池库存50gwh+,为2H做准备。 盈利预测与投资评级:我们上修公司22-24年业绩预期至280/480/652亿元(原预期243/401/566亿元),同比增76%/71%/36%,对应估值48x/28x/21x,给与23年40xPE,对应目标价787元,买入评级。 风险提示:电动车销量不及预期,原材料价格波动,竞争加剧。
未署名
成都银行 银行和金融服务 2022-08-10 14.52 21.93 34.79% 17.01 17.15%
17.01 17.15% -- 详细
成都银行受益于区域、资源、经营三大红利,逆势增长。成都银行是四川省第一家城市商业银行,2019年以来在“数字化、精细化、大零售”三大战略下,成都银行转型成效显著,2021年营收增速位居城商行第四、ROE位居第一。成都银行的成功逆袭得益于区域、资源、经营三大红利,将先天区域、资源红利与后发经营优势相结合,夯实高客户粘性、低负债成本的稳固护城河。 第一,区域红利:扎根区域经济,丰富的政务资源为成都银行拓展高效资产、稳定负债、核心客群奠定了坚实基础。2020年成渝都市圈上升为国家战略,成都银行乘上区域经济发展快车快速崛起。截至2021年成都银行72.3%网点布局在成都,71.9%的信贷投向成都,充分享受区域发展红利。在资产端,企业贷款占比约70%,以基建及租赁和商务服务为代表的政务贷款占企业贷款近六成。在负债端,成都银行是政府部门及部分企事业单位的工资代发银行之一,沉淀大量活期存款,2021年存款占负债比重高达76.0%,活期存款占比44.4%,保持较低资金成本。 第二,资源红利:找准战略定位,将沉淀的政务资源转化为可持续的市场竞争力。成都银行找到与自身发展相契合的增长点,化资源为可持续性优势,这是成都银行能跑赢行业和大盘的重要原因。在资产端,成都银行延伸至更广阔的行业,例如通过开发一批“特色化、标准化、本土化”信贷产品,结合工商、税务、市政资源服务科创、制造、文创中小微企业,着力提升产业金融、科创金融、小微金融服务能力。在负债端,积极推进大零售业务发展,个人定期存款稳定增长,培养客户粘性,提供差异化服务,打开个人消费、理财等业务增长点。 第三,经营红利:三大战略持续推进,资产质量提升,收入结构优化空间较大。2015年以来成都银行资产质量不断改善,“不良+关注”贷款率连续六年下降,政务业务资产质量优质,对公房地产贷款不良小幅上行,受益于稳增长、稳地产政策,未来资产质量仍将保持优异。成都银行近八成收入来自利息收入,大零售转型空间较大。 盈利预测与投资评级:三大优势持续释放,成长可期。成渝都市圈未来是重要经济增长极,公司延续存贷两旺、规模扩张,大零售战略持续推进,零售业务和中间收入具有潜力,低成本负债优势延续。我们预测2022-2024年成都银行归母净利润同比将保持23.3%/26.0%/18.0%增速,对应BPS为14.62/17.01/19.83元。截至6月29日收盘,预计公司股价对应2022年PB为1.12倍。综合可比公司估值和公司成长性,给予2022年目标PB1.5倍,对应目标价21.93元/股,首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 风险提示:宽信用进度不及预期,房地产硬着陆,零售转型缓慢。
未署名
中远海能 公路港口航运行业 2022-08-09 12.00 -- -- 18.08 50.67%
20.57 71.42% -- 详细
全球油轮及LNG运输行业领军企业:截至2021年12月31日,公司是全球最大的油轮船东,市场份额达到3.9%。自有VLCC方面,招商轮船与中远海能拥有VLCC的载重吨数分别位居全球第一和第二,市场份额分别为6%和5.6%(油轮船东Frontline与Euronav传出有合并可能,若合并成功会影响现有排名)。公司的主营业务包括外贸原油成品油运输,内贸原油和成品油运输,和LNG运输。公司利润弹性主要来源于外贸原油运输业务,LNG运输业务、内贸原油和成品油运输则贡献较为稳定的毛利,外贸成品油因年初景气度跳升,预计2022年能够贡献较好收益。 供给端有望逐步改善,需求端有望维持平稳,外贸原油运输业务有望在未来几年进入向上周期:供给端:当前油轮进入深度老龄化,油运行业新订VLCC与15年船龄以上VLCC数量比值达历史低位,而未来订单因全球造船船台排期较满难以保障,同时环保趋严限制航速并降低船东订船意愿,油轮未来供给改善的趋势十分明显。需求端:中长期来看,国际原油运输需求主要跟随全球原油的消费需求平稳增长。根据德鲁里预测,全球油运吨海里需求未来5年将稳健增长,并于2026年升至约10.5万亿吨海里。短期看,海上浮仓逐步恢复正常水平,全球原油存在一定补库空间,提振中短期油运需求。 根据历史周期复盘,我们认为本轮周期行情幅度大概率介于良好和繁荣之间,并且可能弱于2007年繁荣的行情:从1963-2007年船舶交付和拆解的历史来看,出现大量船舶拆解的年份一般随后会迎来较好的行情,出现大量船舶交付时基本上处于行情尾端。1973和2007年出现了油轮船舶交付泡沫,随后油运行情进入萧条;而1983和2002年期间大量船舶报废拆解,随后油运行情进入繁荣。展望后市,根据《Maritime Economics》中对历史油运多轮周期供给趋势、需求增速以及行情级别的定性分级,我们把2007年的油运行情以及当时的需求增速和供给趋势与当下进行比较,认为当前行情幅度大概率介于良好和繁荣之间,并且可能弱于2007年繁荣的行情。 盈利预测与投资评级:公司是全球份额最大的油轮船东,经营治理水平优秀,在当下原油运输行情有望逐步回暖的情况下,我们预测公司2022-2024年归母净利润分别为15.1、25.1、40.6亿元,对应PE分别为32.0、19.3、11.9倍,PB分别为1.6、1.5、1.4倍。基于其龙头地位和稀缺性以及未来较好的预期利润弹性,价值凸显,首次覆盖,给予“买入”评级。 风险提示:能源结构变化风险,宏观经济波动风险,国际政治风险,其它运输方式竞争风险,油轮供给改善不及预期,油价波动风险
未署名
德业股份 机械行业 2022-08-08 345.33 -- -- 452.05 30.90%
452.05 30.90% -- 详细
With steady growth of traditional business, Deye becomes a rising star in the invertercompetitive market. Established in 2020, Deye's core business includes Heat Exchanger,Environmental Appliances represented by Dehumidifier, and Inverter. Deye is the onlydomestic inverter company that provides a complete range of inverter solutions, includinggrid-tied string inverter (GTSI), energy storage inverter (ESI), and micro inverter (MI).Its revenue of photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage business grew by 262% in 2021,contributing >50% of net earnings. Inverter business becomes the fastest-growing sectorand contributes the most profit, while GTSI/ESI/MI contributed 45.2%/45.7%/9.1% ofoverall inverter revenue in 2021respectively.? Greater prosperity of PV and energy storage drives rapid growth of inverter market.1) The fast decline of PV cost brings a large increase in the industry demand: globalsolar installation is expected to reach 456GW in 2025. The rising penetration rate ofdistributed solar PV gives rise to a higher growth of GTSI and MI. We model the MImarket size to reach Rmb21.2bn in 2025, with increasing market share of string inverter.2) Increasing demand for power stability and favorable policies brings prosperity tothe energy storage industry: in 2025global energy storage installation is expected toreach 131GW/318GWh, driving further growth of ESI. 3) Higher-than-industry growthof inverter business: benefiting from rapid escalation of global demand for PV andenergy storage, inverter manufacturers maintained a high growth rate of shipments from2017to 2021, while the CAGR of Deye reached 169%.? Grid-tied inverter and energy storage inverter being the two main growth drivers,Deye continues to benefit from import substitute of chip. 1) Long-standing focus onlow-voltage ESI: malleable and safe products, with much lower-than-peers switchingtime between on- and off-grid mode, support the use of diesel generators under the off-grid mode. With OEM mode accounting for 82% of total sales, Deye enjoys channeladvantages of overseas dealers, especially in the U.S. and South Africa market, of whichthe size is expected to double in 2022. 2) Rapid growth of MI: MI enjoys high growthrate from a low base, with South Africa being its major market. Deye's MI maintains highgross profit yet relatively low cost. Deye increases R&D investment in 2022and launchesproducts with 8-channel MPPT design to enhance competitiveness, expecting shipmentsto triple and its market share to rise. 3) Multiple advantages of string inverters: a designlife of more than 25years and a capacity ratio of the DC and AC side up to 1.5helpmaximize the overall benefits of its string inverters and expand Deye's global footprint byhigh cost-effectiveness. String inverters are expected to double in 2022and see prosperousfuture. 4) Lead the import substitute of IGBT chip with prominent cost advantages.Shortage in IGBT, resulted from strong demand, affects supply of the inverter industry.Deye takes the lead in import substitution of IGBT chip to ensure supply stability andenjoys a lower cost to maintain profitability.? Earnings Forecast & Rating: We project revenue to grow at 33.04%/40.71%/35.94%YoY to Rmb5.545/7.802/10.606bn in 2022-2024, and corresponding net profit to grow at50.44%/52.07%/39.02% YoY to Rmb0.87/1.324/1.84bn, with P/E at 57x/37x/27x in 2022-2024. We initiate with a Buy rating and PT of Rmb261.? Risks: Lower-than-expected solar PV installation; intensified competition; changes inoverseas trade policies; insufficient supply of raw materials.
未署名
海康威视 电子元器件行业 2022-05-17 31.19 -- -- 37.34 19.72%
37.49 20.20%
详细
核心问题:短期业绩之争,PBG、SMBG 失速可能VS 海外、创新业务提振。1)行业层面,虽然由平安城市、雪亮工程等催化的行业高增长阶段告一段落,但是智慧城市、数字乡村、存量更换、服务占比提升等多重利好因素影响下,我们预计“十四五”期间安防市场年均增长率达到7%左右。2)业务层面,行业仍在增长+固定资产投资回升+基建发力,PBG 业绩失速的概率较小;SMBG 对疫情冲击和宏观经济影响更为敏感,悲观情形下存在业绩失速可能;EBG 以大型化、国资化客户为主,受疫情和宏观经济影响较小,保持稳定增长;后疫情时代海外业务加速回暖,萤石、机器人等创新业务期待更多惊喜。3)根据我们的测算,即使在极端悲观假设下公司仍然能够保持14.14%的增速,等到疫情冲击减弱、宏观经济恢复常态运行,我们预计公司增速将提升至更高水平。 价值判断:从标准化产品到半标准化、半定制化解决方案,再到完全定制化。公司在20余年的发展过程中先后经历了三个阶段:1)2001-2010年,标准化产品供应商;2)2009-2015年,半标准化、半定制化解决方案供应商;3)2016年至今,完全定制化的行业数字化转型方案供应商。 这一放在全球制造业来看都是绝无仅有的转型发展过程,之所以能够成功,核心在于公司始终如一的高研发投入,20余年研发费用占比从5%提升至10%、研发人员占比从28%提升至48%。研发成果一:软、硬件产品体系统一平台,研发团队互为支持,软件需求带动硬件研发,硬件能力带动软件研发。研发成果二:通用和专用相结合,软件平台+算法+模型+服务。除了研发以外,渠道铺设优势+组织架构革新+人才培养机制+柔性生产体系,使得公司核心竞争优势彰显,行业龙头地位稳固。 长期发展:定制化、碎片化是产业发展的必然方向,稀缺渠道价值显著低估。随着“AI+安防”的兴起,智能化安防逐步深入金融、教育、楼宇、家庭等场景,行业碎片化和定制化的特征越发明显。目前进入碎片化市场的玩家包括安防龙头、科技巨头、AI 算法公司、细分行业龙头,相比其他竞争对手,公司在感知技术、产品硬件、解决方案等方面具有先发优势,但是最重要的差异还是来自于行业理解和场景落地。一方面,销服网络为根,拥有能够下沉至乡镇的完善营销服务网络,是公司能够深入理解和获取行业知识,精准把握客户需求痛点的关键;另一方面,产研体系为本,公司将研发和技术支持资源前移,与铺设的营销服务网络相匹配,更近距离的接触和服务客户,使得渠道的稀缺价值尤其彰显。 盈利预测与投资评级:我们预计公司22-24年EPS 分别为2.08、2.51、3.04元,对应PE 分别为20、17、14倍,首次给予公司“买入”评级。 风险提示:安防行业发展不达预期、疫情冲击中小企业经营风险加大等
未署名
药明康德 医药生物 2022-05-12 96.92 -- -- 107.70 10.57%
118.40 22.16%
详细
Event: Total revenue/net profit/ net profit after deducting non-recurring gain or loss items/adjusted non-IFRS net profit of the company in the first quarter of 2022was RMB8.474bn/1.643bn/1.714bn/2.054bn (+71.18%/+9.54%/+106.52%/+85.82% YoY), respectively.Forward-looking plan reduced negative impact of the pandemic: 1Q22revenueexcluding the influence of exchange rate increased by 78.47% YoY, maintaining high growthdespite the impact of Covid-19. Profit growth declined due to fair value variation of financialassets. After excluding these factors, net profit grew by 92.32% YoY. The companyimplemented business contingency plan immediately after the Omicron outbreak in Shanghaiat the end of March, which could guarantee stable earnings in the first half of 2022.Chemistry and new cell business achieved high growth: 1Q22chemistry businessachieved revenue of RMB6.118bn (+102.1%) thanks to Covid-19related orders. Thecompany completed synthesis of more than 90,000custom synthesized compounds in 1Q22and added 217molecules to chemistry process development and manufacturing pipeline. Asat the end of March, chemistry services involved 1,808new drug molecules, including 49inPhase III and 42drug approvals. The number of oligonucleotide and peptide D&Mcustomers/ molecules was 86/121(+72%/+98% YoY), respectively.Testing business maintained stable growth due to the integrated WIND serviceplatform: 1Q22revenue from testing business was RMB1.279bn (+31.7%). Specifically,revenue from lab analysis and testing services was RMB909mn (+39.9%). By leveragingthe advantage of integration through WIND service platform, 47service contracts weresigned. Revenue from clinical CRO and SMO was RMB370mn (+15.2%). The companyassisted CRO customers in obtaining approval for four clinical research applications andcontinued rapid expansion on its SMO services with supporting four new drug approvals.Strong growth momentum was shown in biology and ATU business, while DDSUbusiness was affected in the short term: Revenue generated from Domestic DiscoveryService Unit (DDSU) was RMB241mn (-21.6%), affected by CDE's policy to improveclinical quality. Biology business and ATU business achieved revenue of RMB 533mn(+26.2%) and RMB 299mn (+37.0%), respectively. Structure of ATU business continued tobe improved and new modalities-related biology service became an important growth driver.Earnings Forecast & Rating: Our estimates of net profit in 2022-2024are RMB8.633bn/10.406bn/13.220bn/ (+69%/+21%/+27% YoY), corresponding to P/E ratios at34/28/22x. We re-iterate with a Buy rating, as the company is being undervalued as a CROleader with high earnings growth visibility.Risks: Capacity expansion weaker than expected; risk of exchange gains and losses; Covid-19related orders fewer than expected.
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1、“起评日”指研报发布后的第一个交易日;“起评价”指研报发布当日的开盘价;“最高价”指从起评日开始,评测期内的最高价。
2、以“起评价”为基准,20日内最高价涨幅超过10%,为短线评测成功;60日内最高价涨幅超过20%,为中线评测成功。详细规则>>
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